化工日报 | 2025-11-28 半钢胎开工率继续回落 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15280元/吨，较前一日变动+85元/吨；NR主力合约12205元/吨，较前一日变动+40 元/吨；BR主力合约10400元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14850元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14600元/吨，较前一 日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1835美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1725 美元/吨，较前一日变动+5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10400元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10330元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比增长4%。1-10月汽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views Methanol - The current situation remains poor, with Iranian plant shutdowns slower than expected. November is expected to see high imports, and it is difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland area. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it has no impact on profits. [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. The two major oil companies and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous period. Recently, the domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and the US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. [6] PP (Polypropylene) - The inventory of the two major oil companies (upstream) and the middle - stream is decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The production scheduling of drawn products is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Currently, downstream orders are average, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase significantly or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level. [6] PVC - The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally declining, and there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. The inventory of the middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recently, near - term export orders have declined slightly. The sentiment in the coal market is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance; the counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether future export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the accumulation of static inventory contradictions is slow, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates. [6] 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 801 | 2003 | 1985 | 2350 | 2350 | 2340 | 2585 | 234 | 317 | - 25 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/24 | 801 | 2053 | 2028 | 2360 | 2372 | 2340 | 2588 | 237 | 317 | 13 | - 20 | - | | 2025/11/25 | 801 | 2057 | 2030 | 2378 | 2412 | 2385 | 2588 | 240 | 317 | - 16 | - 15 | - | | 2025/11/26 | 801 | 2088 | 2048 | 2408 | 2415 | 2390 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | - 16 | - 5 | - | | 2025/11/27 | 801 | 2103 | 2073 | 2410 | 2410 | 2390 | 2590 | - | - | - | - 11 | - | |日度变化|0|15|25|2| - 5|0|0| - | - | - | - 6| - | [1] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 730 | 6750 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 14 | 6770 | - 20 | 69 | 11835 | | 2025/11/24 | 730 | 6760 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 764 | 17 | 6793 | - 20 | - | 11721 | | 2025/11/25 | 730 | 6740 | 6975 | 8850 | 7100 | 800 | 785 | 35 | 6762 | - 50 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/26 | 730 | 6700 | 6975 | 8850 | 7050 | 795 | - | 85 | 6707 | - 30 | - | 11701 | | 2025/11/27 | - | - | 6925 | 8800 | 7000 | - | - | - | 6699 | - 20 | - | 11701 | |日度变化| - | - | - 50 | - 50 | - 50 | - | - | - | - 8 | 10 | - | 0 | [6] PP (Polypropylene) | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 5900 | 695 | 6305 | 6265 | 6180 | 6766 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6357 | - 80 | 69 | 15733 | | 2025/11/24 | 5900 | 695 | 6285 | 6255 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 4 | 6372 | - 80 | - | 15733 | | 2025/11/25 | 5920 | 695 | 6270 | 6248 | 6160 | 6754 | 765 | 805 | - 5 | 6317 | - 100 | - | 15668 | | 2025/11/26 | 6050 | 695 | 6250 | 6213 | 6150 | 6744 | - | - | - | 6265 | - 70 | - | 15518 | | 2025/11/27 | 6050 | - | 6205 | 6210 | 6150 | 6728 | - | - | - | 6295 | - 70 | - | 15518 | |日度变化|0| - | - 45 | - 3 | 0 | - 16 | - | - | - | 30 | 0 | - | 0 | [6] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/11/21 | 2400 | 792 | 4490 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 426 | - | - | - 90 | | 2025/11/24 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 423 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/25 | 2450 | 777 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 690 | 415 | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/26 | 2450 | 777 | 4520 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | - | - | - | - 70 | | 2025/11/27 | 2450 | 767 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | - | - | - | - | - 70 | |日度变化|0| - 10 | 10 | - | - | 0 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not changed significantly, with both supply and demand being weak. For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the valuation is currently low. If there are relevant policies, the market may rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1][3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong - side fluctuating trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 9000 yuan/ton and closed at 9115 yuan/ton, a change of 120 yuan/ton (1.33%) from the previous day's settlement. The open interest of the 2511 main contract was 237,648 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 39,555 lots, a change of - 870 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9500 - 9600 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (50) yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8800 - 9000 (0) yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of November 27, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 129,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 421,000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot inventory), an increase of 2000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to move slightly upward. The current quoted price range was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton from the average price of the previous week. The DMC quoted price of Shandong monomer enterprises was 13,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the DMC quoted prices of other domestic monomer enterprises were concentrated at 13,200 - 13,300 yuan/ton, with individual enterprises also increasing their quotes by 100 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy - The spot price remains stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon market is currently affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity - exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and if there is policy promotion, the market may have room to rise. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 56,195 yuan/ton and closing at 55,235 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.91% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract reached 141,586 (143,043 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 324,070 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 (0.05) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 28.10 (a 3.69% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW (a 4.17% change from the previous period), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000.00 tons (a - 11.40% change from the previous period), and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW (a - 5.95% change from the previous period) [4][5]. - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.53 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.23 (- 0.03) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, there will be significant production cuts in the southwest region, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of TopconM10 battery cells was about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; the price of Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; and the price of HJT210 half - piece battery cells was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, the mainstream transaction price of N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Both supply and demand of polysilicon have weakened, with large overall inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. In November, old warehouse receipts were cancelled, and few new warehouse receipts were registered, resulting in more delivery games for near - month contracts. Currently, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policies are still being promoted, with large market fluctuations. Participants need to pay attention to risk management. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Futures - cash: None. - Options: None [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - PVC shows a narrow - range fluctuation and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the follow - up device maintenance and macro - sentiment should be focused on. The export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected later [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand is weak in the non - aluminum sector. The new alumina plant's procurement in the next two months may support the price, with cost support still existing [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: PVC main contract closed at 4,517 yuan/ton (+28), East China basis - 57 yuan/ton (-18), South China basis - 27 yuan/ton (-28) [1] - Spot prices: East China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,460 yuan/ton (+10), South China calcium carbide method quoted at 4,490 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profits: Semi - coke price 800 yuan/ton (+0), calcium carbide price 2,830 yuan/ton (+25), calcium carbide profit - 100 yuan/ton (+25), PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit - 848 yuan/ton (-28), PVC ethylene method production gross profit - 516 yuan/ton (-25), PVC export profit - 3.4 dollars/ton (-8.8) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: PVC factory inventory 31.5 tons (-0.7), PVC social inventory 52.8 tons (+0.1), PVC calcium carbide method operation rate 82.21% (+2.06%), PVC ethylene method operation rate 71.12% (-0.19%), PVC operation rate 78.85% (+1.37%) [1] - Downstream order situation: Production enterprise pre - sales volume 67.6 tons (-2.3) [1] Market Analysis - PVC fluctuates narrowly and rebounds with the macro - sentiment. There is no new device maintenance this week, but some enterprises consider production cut. New production capacity is gradually put into production. The supply is abundant, downstream operation decreases slightly, and the overall purchasing sentiment is average. The domestic export window is open, but PVC product exports may be affected [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Narrow - range fluctuation and rebound with the macro - sentiment [4] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4] - Inter - variety: None [4] 2. Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures prices and basis: SH main contract closed at 2,238 yuan/ton (+9), Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis 106 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - Spot prices: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda quoted at 750 yuan/ton (-10), Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda quoted at 1,230 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profits: Shandong caustic soda single - variety profit 1,348 yuan/ton (-31), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) 682.3 yuan/ton (-71.3), Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) - 229.72 yuan/ton (-66.25), Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) 540.52 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory 46.98 tons (+4.22), flake caustic soda factory inventory 3.27 tons (+0.18), caustic soda operation rate 85.00% (+0.40%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: Alumina operation rate 85.46% (+0.09%), East China printing and dyeing operation rate 65.52% (-1.03%), viscose staple fiber operation rate 91.29% (+1.20%) [2] Market Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply increases slightly, and the demand from alumina plants in Shandong weakens. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu accumulates. The non - aluminum sector has weak demand. The new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and there is cost support [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Range fluctuation [5] - Inter - period: Go long on SH12 - 01 when the price is low [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; glass is expected to continue weakening [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, and silver recommend range trading; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][9][14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; caustic soda and soda ash recommend waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][16][18]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA suggests range - bound trading; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][25][27]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests waiting for a rebound to hedge at high prices; soybean meal suggests range trading; oils and fats suggest buying on dips after a rebound [1][30][34]. Core Views The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It provides trading suggestions based on current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each sector. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as rising US inflation, weak retail sales, and high - valuation risks in Europe, the market rotation is fast, and index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news" because of the narrow interest - rate fluctuation range, which reduces the attractiveness to institutional investors. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Double - Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Most mines are reducing prices, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. It is recommended to trade within a range [6]. - **Rebar**: With unclear prospects for the Fed's December interest - rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand have both declined this week. Steel mills' profits are low, and production cuts may increase. Rebar is expected to trade within a range at low levels [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and glass prices are expected to continue weakening [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Concerns about supply from Congo (Kinshasa) and the restart of production in Indonesia's Grasberg mine are factors. Consumption has improved, and social inventories have decreased. Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short term, with a trading range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan, and it is recommended to trade within the range [9]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is expected to decline, and alumina production capacity is increasing. Aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and demand is entering the off - season. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [9][10]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may increase supply uncertainty. Nickel is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait or short on rallies [13]. - **Tin**: Domestic production and imports have changed, and the semiconductor industry is recovering. Supply is expected to improve, and tin prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, both are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be supported in the medium term [14][15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production, and demand is strong. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth. PVC is expected to trade with a bearish bias, and it is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [16]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, it is recommended to wait and watch [18]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited by factors such as pure - benzene supply and demand and port inventory. It is expected to trade sideways [18]. - **Rubber**: Entering the off - season of production, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. Rubber prices are expected to trade within a range [20]. - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, demand from agriculture is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea is expected to trade sideways [21]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand from the olefin industry is stable, and traditional demand is weak. Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways [23]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure has eased, demand is improving slightly, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias. It is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand and raw - material prices [24]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are firm, and they are expected to trade sideways [27]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to trade within a range at low levels [27]. - **Apples**: Warehouse trading is stable, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [28]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition progress varies by region, and prices are expected to trade with a bearish bias [29]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Short - term supply pressure remains, demand growth is limited, and long - term capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. Near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and long - term contracts should be cautiously chased for rallies [30][32]. - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are improving marginally, long - term capacity reduction takes time, and price increases are limited [32][33]. - **Corn**: Short - term supply pressure is relieved, long - term supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is recommended to hedge at high prices after a rebound [34]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by import policies and weather, it is recommended to trade within a range [35]. - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term prices are rebounding, but there are still many limiting factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to palm - oil data [35][40].

集运指数欧线期货主力合约涨超5%，报1448点。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 | | 。 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比减少4 ， | . | | 76% . | 需求持续低迷 | | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 ...

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 116,920 yuan/ton and closed at 116,900 yuan/ton, a change of -0.53% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,221 (-79,345) lots, and the open interest was 127,765 (-503) lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a slight oscillating downward trend, failing to continue the rebound of the previous few days. The price closed below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, with a bearish technical outlook. After the macro - positive sentiment faded, the nickel price returned to the fundamental market [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders for shipment, and the shipping efficiency was okay. The downstream ferronickel price was weak, and the iron - making plants' profits were affected. They were cautious in purchasing nickel ore, and some plants had the intention to cut production to stop losses. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in December (phase one) was expected to drop by 0.52 - 0.91 US dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade premium was in the range of +25 - 26, and there was room for it to decline due to the falling ferronickel price [1]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 121,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The overall spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were adjusted downwards. Jinchuan nickel's premium remained at 4,650 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,548 (-396) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,450 (+930) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - With high inventories and an oversupply situation remaining unchanged, the nickel price was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was to focus on range trading, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the main contract 2601 of stainless steel opened at 12,435 yuan/ton and closed at 12,410 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,697 (-24,902) lots, and the open interest was 122,062 (-4,171) lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract showed a slight oscillating downward trend, and its price movement basically followed that of Shanghai nickel. The stainless - steel fundamentals were still weak. The social inventory increased this week, rising 0.64% compared to last week to 946,000 tons. After the macro - positive factors were exhausted, the price was expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. - Earlier this week, the trading volume improved due to the price rebound, but it weakened again yesterday when the price dropped. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 325 - 525 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 883.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventories, and a continuous downward shift in the cost center, stainless steel was expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The current price was at a 5 - year low, and the downward space was limited. The recommended strategy was neutral, and there were no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red dates: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Apple: The current inventory and inventory structure expectations are reflected in the price. Future focus should be on terminal market consumption recovery, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. - Red dates: If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. The near - month contract may still have some downward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,529 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 2 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.02% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late - Fuji apples in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 2,029, a change of + 2 from the previous day. The price of over - 70 semi - commercial late - Fuji apples in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1,229, a change of + 2 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market News - The trading atmosphere of late - Fuji stored apples is dull. In the western production areas, merchants are sporadically looking for goods, mainly focusing on farmers' two - grade goods, with limited transactions. Some merchants are packaging their self - stored goods to replenish the market. In the Shandong production area, there is sporadic outbound inventory, mainly small fruits for foreign - trade channels. The ground transactions are basically over. The market is in a seasonal off - season, with weak terminal consumption and low enthusiasm among merchants for purchasing. It is expected that today's transactions will remain dull and prices will be stable [2]. Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated. The prices of late - Fuji apples in major production areas such as Shandong Qixia and Shaanxi Luochuan remained stable, with price differences among different specifications. The current market is in a seasonal off - season, with a dull trading atmosphere for late - Fuji stored apples. The outbound volume in each production area is limited, and transactions are light. Merchants' enthusiasm for purchasing is low. Last week, the new - season late - Fuji apple storage work in the production areas was basically completed. The purchase price was high during the acquisition stage, and the storage volume was more than 10% lower than the same period last year, which is different from some market expectations. The proportion of fruit farmers' storage is large, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased, while the proportion of poor - quality goods has increased. The outbound work has started recently, and the sales area market is in an off - season. Affected by high prices and other factors, consumption is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the overall rhythm is a bit slow. The demand side is under pressure, and the trading atmosphere is still dull. The increasing supply of citrus fruits is squeezing the apple sales space [3]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Comprehensive consideration shows that the current expectations of storage volume and storage structure are reflected in the price. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal market consumption, the impact of inventory structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchants' inventory transfer dynamics. Caution is needed when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Dates 2601 contract was 9,150 yuan/ton yesterday, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.11% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.70 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.20 yuan/kg from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 450, a change of - 190 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market News - Currently, the acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% - 40% of the total output. The prices in the production area are weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar areas is relatively fast, with the acquired goods being gradually packed and shipped. The acquisition progress is slow in Kashgar. The acquisition in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo areas has ended. The raw material acquisition in the production area is priced according to quality, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. Enterprises' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. On November 26, there was a small amount of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, and the trading was mainly of new - season goods. The new - season jujubes were gradually processed after being harvested. The price difference of new - season goods was large due to cost and origin quality. Downstream merchants made on - demand purchases. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 7 vehicles of goods arrived, and the prices were stable. The quality of the arriving goods was uneven, with a large price difference. The market acceptance of ordinary goods was poor, and downstream merchants made on - demand purchases, with average morning transactions. The supply of new - season goods in the Hebei sales area market has increased, and downstream merchants are waiting and making on - demand purchases based on the new - season prices. It is expected that the spot price will be weakly stable in the short term [6][7]. Market Analysis - The red - date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies, and prices are weakly stable, with high - quality goods having high prices. The supply of new - season goods in the sales area market has increased, but the quality of the arriving goods is uneven, with a large price difference. Downstream merchants make on - demand purchases, and transactions are average. Currently, red dates are at a critical period of switching between the off - season and peak season and the "alternation of new and old seasons". The grey jujubes in the main Xinjiang production area are being harvested, and the orchard - ordering process is accelerating. The prices have been falling recently. Old - season goods are the main trading items in the market, and the market acceptance of new - season goods is average. The enthusiasm of merchants in the production area for purchasing new - season goods is low, and the expected selling price of jujube farmers has decreased. The inventory of 36 sample points has slightly increased. A large amount of new - season goods will be listed soon, and with the co - existence of new and old seasons, the inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. As the weather gets colder, red dates enter the consumption peak season, and the actual consumption situation on the consumer side will become the focus of the market [8]. Strategy - Neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, if the high - priced new - season spot leads to continuous inventory backlog in the circulation link and the supply - demand contradiction is not effectively alleviated, the new - season spot price may continue to fall and approach the futures price. According to the 2025 modification of the red - date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates. Therefore, the near - month contract may still have some downward space [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices will fluctuate due to the combined impact of supply increases and weak demand. OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable oil production policies in Q1 2026 and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms [1]. - Fuel oil prices will oscillate. The immediate supply is relatively sufficient, but high freight rates may lead to a tightening of arrivals in December. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by downstream demand [3]. - Asphalt prices will experience low - level oscillations. The supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, but the price has shown relative stability around 3000 yuan/ton recently [3]. - PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate. PX has a strong fundamental expectation but a weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level [4]. - Rubber prices have support. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported after the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts [7]. - Methanol prices will oscillate with a short - term upward bias. The supply from Iran will decline, leading to a reduction in port inventory and a price rebound, but there is an upper limit to the price [7][9]. - Polyolefin prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but the low valuation may prompt downstream buying [9]. - PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but the export situation improves, and the basis is repaired [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, Brent January contract closed up $0.21 to $63.34/barrel, a 0.33% increase; SC2601 closed at 451.6 yuan/barrel, up 6.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% increase. OPEC+ meetings are planned on Sunday, with expectations of stable Q1 2026 production policies and an agreement on evaluating maximum production capacity mechanisms. Russia's oil revenue is under pressure, and the price will oscillate due to supply and demand factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, FU2601 rose 0.82% to 2471 yuan/ton, and LU2601 rose 1% to 3033 yuan/ton. Singapore and Fujeirah inventories increased. November's western - sourced low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals in Singapore are expected to be higher, but high freight rates may affect December arrivals. The price will oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, BU2601 fell 1.41% to 3007 yuan/ton. This week's domestic asphalt shipments decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises declined. Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price will oscillate at a low level [3]. - **PTA, EG, PX**: TA601 closed down 1.11% at 4632 yuan/ton; EG2601 closed down 0.59% at 3873 yuan/ton; PX01 closed down 0.83% at 6718 yuan/ton. PX has a strong expectation but weak reality; PTA's basis is oscillating strongly; ethylene glycol may oscillate at a low level [4]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, RU2601 rose 85 yuan/ton to 15280 yuan/ton, NR rose 40 yuan/ton to 12205 yuan/ton, and BR rose 40 yuan/ton to 10400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand situation is weak, but the futures price has support [7]. - **Methanol**: The domestic supply is stable, but Iranian plants are shutting down due to gas restrictions. Port inventory is expected to decline from mid - December to early January, driving the price to rebound, but there is an upper limit [7][9]. - **Polyolefin**: On Thursday, the price of polyolefin products was low, and production was in a loss - making state. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price in the East China market was adjusted upwards. Supply remains high, domestic demand slows down, but export obstacles are basically eliminated, and the price will oscillate at the bottom [9][10]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on November 27, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes, as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [11]. 3.3 Market News - OPEC+ is expected to maintain stable Q1 2026 oil production policies and may reach an agreement on evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity mechanisms. Eight OPEC+ countries that increased production in 2025 are expected to keep their production suspension policies unchanged in Q1 2026 [16]. - Russia's Ural crude oil discount has widened, and the US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenue [16]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [18][20][24] - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [35][39] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads between different contracts of products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][53] - **Inter - product Spreads**: Charts cover spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [64][66] - **Production Profits**: Charts show the production profits of LLDPE and PP [72] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [77][78][79]