煤焦：库存压力较大 盘面反弹表现乏力 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 重要声明： 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 16 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦价格整体低位震荡运行，反弹表现乏力。现货端， 产地焦炭价格第 3 轮调降后暂稳运行，自 5 月中旬至此 3 轮累计下跌 170-185 元/吨，后期仍存降价预期；焦煤现货同样保持弱稳运行，尚未 有反弹表现。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期随着煤价的持续下跌，国内煤矿生产延续小幅下滑趋势，但尚未 出现大面积停减产，暂无法改变上游累库现状。上周煤矿端精煤库存 4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for various products: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are rated as "oscillating"; glass and soda ash are also rated as "oscillating weakly" [7][11]. Core Viewpoints - Amid frequent macro - disturbances, the prices of the black series are oscillating near the cost support level. With the approaching off - season, the demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is under pressure to decline from high levels. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices are testing for an upward movement near the support level, waiting for favorable factors, but the upward pressure is still strong [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments, which will remain high until early July. On the demand side, the profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and hot metal production is slightly decreasing but expected to remain high in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, with the arrival of ores shipped during the peak period, the port may see a slight inventory increase, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - **Coking Coal**: Recently, the output of some coal mines has slightly declined due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply of coking coal is still loose. On the demand side, the coke output is showing signs of decline, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the coking profit is shrinking. During the price cut cycle, the coking enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal intensifies. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, so there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, with a reduction of 70 - 75 yuan/ton this time, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. On the supply side, the output of some coking enterprises has slightly declined due to environmental protection and maintenance, but the overall coke output remains stable. The downstream steel mills' enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is weak, and the coking enterprises' coke inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining from a high level, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, with an expectation of further decline in hot metal production. The upstream supply reduction is limited, the demand support is gradually weakening, and there is still room for the coke price to fall under the drag of cost [8][9]. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: On the cost side, the market is cautiously waiting, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of loosening. On the supply side, the production cost has been slightly repaired due to the abundant water period in Yunnan and the electricity price discount in Guangxi, and the supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased, but the manufacturers in Ningxia are still in the red, and their willingness to sell is limited. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season in the black market, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of bargaining. The supply - demand of silicomanganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is still expected to loosen. However, due to the cost - price inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to sell is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply has slightly increased. As the terminal steel use is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, the market sentiment remains cautious, and the cost may still be a drag. The future market should focus on steel procurement and production conditions, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, the demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, the mid - stream inventory has decreased, and there are rumors disturbing the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to loosen, and the sentiment fluctuates repeatedly. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led the futures price down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, the maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [5][11]. Other Products - **Steel**: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, with a significant decline in rebar demand. The hot metal production is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased much, but the hot metal production may have reached its peak. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have weakened this week, but the inventory is still decreasing. The price of the steel futures market is mainly suppressed by the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. With the resumption of Sino - US negotiations, the macro - fluctuations are magnified, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The scrap steel resources are tight, but the market is pessimistic about the off - season demand. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. It is expected that the future price will oscillate following the finished products [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Neutral [4] - Caustic Soda: Cautious short-selling hedging [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and high inventory pressure, weak domestic demand, and lacks positive fundamental support, with limited upward driving force. Attention should be paid to macro-export policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4]. - The overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are expected to remain weak, with high inventory pressure, slow inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [3][4]. Directory Summaries Market News and Important Data - **PVC** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 4,816 yuan/ton (+26), the East China basis was -136 yuan/ton (-6), and the South China basis was -26 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quoted 4,680 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide method quoted 4,790 yuan/ton (+10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi-coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -426 yuan/ton (+121), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -520 yuan/ton (-15), and the PVC export profit was 3.0 US dollars/ton (-2.0) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in-plant PVC inventory was 39.8 million tons (+1.4), the social PVC inventory was 36.1 million tons (-0.1), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.90% (+4.19%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 71.13% (-0.58%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.47% (+2.87%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre-sale volume of production enterprises was 62.6 million tons (+8.6) [1]. - **Caustic Soda** - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,308 yuan/ton (-27), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 442 yuan/ton (+27) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,400 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single-variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 935.8 yuan/ton (-120.8), the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 463.78 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,446.05 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 38.21 million tons (-1.05), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.79 million tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 83.50% (-0.60%) [2]. - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.35% (+0.82%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.50% (-1.18%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (-0.04%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PVC** - Supply side: There are few new upstream maintenance projects, the PVC operation rate has increased month-on-month, the current output is at a high level in the same period, and it is difficult to drive a significant reduction in PVC production under the support of chlor-alkali profits. Coupled with the expected production of new capacity from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3]. - Demand side: The overall downstream operation of PVC is weakly stable, and the downstream market mainly purchases based on rigid demand, with the weak demand situation difficult to change [3]. - Inventory side: Downstream enterprises replenish inventory at low prices, the social PVC inventory continues to decline month-on-month but the de-stocking rate slows down, while the in-plant inventory accumulates. In the future, with the increase in supply and weak demand, the social inventory may slightly accumulate. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of PVC inventory [3]. - Export: Export orders are continuously and stably delivered, but the extension policy of the Indian BIS certification expires at the end of June, and there is currently no progress in the policy. Coupled with the rainy season suppressing terminal demand, it is expected to drag down export demand [3]. - **Caustic Soda** - Supply side: There are still many new maintenance projects in June, with the 1.02 million-ton capacity of Fujian Southeast Electrochemical completely shut down for maintenance, and the maintenance in Shandong has also increased. The operation rate in Shandong has declined month-on-month, but due to the acceptable chlor-alkali profits, upstream manufacturers mostly maintain high-load production. The overall caustic soda operation rate remains at a high level, and new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production from June to July, so the supply-side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3]. - Demand side: After the continuous increase in the purchase price, the delivery volume of the main downstream has significantly increased, but when the delivery volume exceeds the daily consumption and enters the inventory accumulation stage, attention should be paid to the sustainability of future inventory stocking. After the repair of the alumina production profit, the new and restarted capacities are gradually released, and the alumina operation rate has increased month-on-month, but the restart is still not obvious at present. The non-aluminum demand performance is not good, the dyeing operation rate has declined month-on-month, and downstream customers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase based on rigid demand [3]. - Cost side: With the decline in coal and electricity prices, the cost support for caustic soda has shifted downward [3]. Strategy - PVC: Adopt a neutral strategy. Due to the continuous high supply and high inventory pressure of PVC and weak domestic demand, the fundamental lack of positive support, and limited upward driving force, currently at a low valuation with limited downward space. Continue to pay attention to macro-export policies at the export end and the recovery of downstream demand [4]. - Caustic Soda: Adopt a cautious short-selling hedging strategy. Currently, the comprehensive chlor-alkali profit is acceptable, the inventory is being digested but at a slow speed, the inventory pressure is high, and the overall supply and demand fundamentals of caustic soda are still expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream replenishment and upstream maintenance dynamics [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is warming up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices was weak, and they weakened again at night. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with this round's decline increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton. Since mid - May, the three - round cumulative decline has been 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also maintained a weak and stable operation [3] Import Data - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 188.722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 2.938 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [3] Domestic Coal Production - Domestic coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale shutdown or production reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 78,000 tons. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 297,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.357 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.04 million tons [3] Demand Situation - The demand for coking coal and coke continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 605,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in production, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound was still insufficient [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil: Initial Pricing of Bearish Factors, Focus on Future Production; Soybean Oil: Sino-US Relations Disturbance, Focus on New US Soybean Crop Suspense" and was released on June 8, 2025 [1][2] 2. Previous Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The bearish impact of Malaysia's unexpected production increase from April to May was gradually digested by the market. In the short term, there were no obvious contradictions, and it mainly fluctuated following the oil and fat sector affected by crude oil, China-Canada, and Sino-US relations. The palm oil 09 contract rose 0.62% last week [2] Soybean Oil - The driving force in the soybean market was not obvious, and supply issues were downplayed. However, the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents in the second half of the week brought bullish sentiment to the US soybean market, leading to a strong rebound in soybean oil and soybean meal. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.31% last week [2] 3. This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - Malaysia's production recovery from April to May will bring forward a 2 million - ton inventory level. Indonesia's inventory is expected to accumulate to over 3 million tons in April, so the inventory in the second quarter in Indonesia and Malaysia may return to the normal level of 5.5 million tons. There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents, so the origin's quotation may loosen in the third quarter [3] - Although it is judged that there is still un - released pressure in the fundamentals, there is strong support during the decline. Due to macro - allocation, oil hedging, and early layout for the second half of the year, investors' long - allocation of palm oil means that the current production increase in Malaysia from April to May cannot push the palm oil price down [3] - After the market has fully priced in the previous production increase, further bearish factors need to be seen, such as less - than - expected purchases by China and India in July or Malaysia's production in June - July challenging historical highs. Malaysia's inventory at the end of May is expected to reach over 2 million tons [3] - Indonesia's production in March increased by 16% month - on - month. If the production continues to recover significantly from April to May, it will help release the seasonal pressure. Recently, Indonesia's refining profit has increased, and export demand has recovered, but the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference has not improved significantly, and the supply is gradually widening [3] - The export taxes of crude palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia are both reduced in June, so the importing regions' import sentiment will improve in June. India's palm oil purchases in May - June reached over 1.5 million tons, and the consumption expectation in the production increase season is guaranteed. China's palm oil purchases for the July shipment are relatively small. If the monthly average purchase cannot reach 350,000 tons, the origin will face inventory pressure again in the third quarter [3] - The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still comes from the production recovery situation. The bullish factors such as the digestion of Malaysia's previous production increase, the improvement of export in June, and the possible decline in production in June - July attract long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels [3] Soybean Oil - There is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. 45Z and SRE mainly increase fluctuations, and RVO is needed to determine its value. It is considered that the probability of the final RVO figure being above 5.25 billion gallons is small, and the demand boost compared with 2024 will be less than 500,000 tons [5] - In terms of international oil and fat supply, attention should be paid to when the high soybean - palm oil price difference will reflect the export pressure of international soybean oil. The upward performance of US soybean oil may be restricted by the actual situation. If the operating rate remains at the low level in March, the inventory will become neutral by July [5] - The discount of Brazilian soybeans has widened compared with that of US soybeans, indicating less selling pressure from farmers, which will support the soybean sector. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, as well as the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5] 4. Overall View - For palm oil, the previous bearish factors of Malaysia's production increase have been gradually digested, exports from the origin are expected to improve in June, and the risk of production decline in June - July attracts long - positions to layout in advance. The further downward momentum of palm oil prices comes from continuous over - expected inventory accumulation. The 9 - 1 spread can be intervened when it enters a low - valuation range, and the 7 - 9 spread can be short - sold at high levels. Attention should be paid to the Indonesia - Malaysia price difference and the inventory pressure implied by the origin's export sentiment [6] - For soybean oil, there is a price bubble in US soybean oil above 50 cents per pound. If it does not find a direction soon, it will be difficult for international oil and fat prices to break through. The tight new - crop balance sheet in the US does not allow much room for weather deterioration. Attention should be paid to weather speculation and the possibility of an over - estimated trend yield, and the impact of Sino - US relations on the domestic soybean market. Also, observe the expected change in the palm oil inventory inflection point and more certainty in the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [6] 5. Market Data Futures Price and Volume - Palm oil main - continuous contract: opened at 8,100 yuan/ton, reached a high of 8,250 yuan/ton, a low of 8,064 yuan/ton, and closed at 8,110 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The trading volume was 2,478,112 lots, a decrease of 604,662 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 419,221 lots, an increase of 33,611 lots [8] - Soybean oil main - continuous contract: opened at 7,612 yuan/ton, reached a high of 7,748 yuan/ton, a low of 7,612 yuan/ton, and closed at 7,738 yuan/ton, up 1.31%. The trading volume was 3,082,774 lots, a decrease of 400,894 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 572,787 lots, a decrease of 42,275 lots [8] Spread and Basis - The vegetable - soybean oil 09 spread was 1,402 yuan/ton, down 18.01% from last week; the soybean - palm oil 09 spread was - 372 yuan/ton, up 11.85% [8] - The palm oil (South China) basis to the 09 contract was 380 yuan/ton; the soybean oil (Jiangsu) basis declined [14] Inventory - related - Malaysia's palm oil production in May is expected to reach a historical high in the same period, and the inventory is expected to continue to rise. Indonesia's inventory in the second quarter is expected to rise rapidly [10][13] - The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from May 1 - 31 were 1,320,914 tons, an increase of 17.9% compared with the same period last month [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillating". Specific ratings for each variety are as follows: - Steel: Oscillating [7] - Iron ore: Oscillating [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [7] - Coke: Oscillating weakly [7] - Coking coal: Oscillating weakly [11] - Glass: Oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: Oscillating weakly [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [13] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the macro - positive sentiment and coking coal news catalyzed a strong rebound after the previous price decline. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply - demand is in a tight balance, leading to more optimistic voices in the market. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are about to enter the off - season, and the "rush to export" is also under - performing, with limited demand growth. So the rebound height is still limited, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy guidance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Element - Supply: Overseas incremental release is lower than expected, with a year - on - year decline in cumulative shipments throughout the year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down, reducing the annual increment [2]. - Demand: Steel mills' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased, expected to remain at a high level in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small, and the real supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - Coking Coal - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase, currently, most coal mines in the production area are operating normally, and the coking coal output remains high. The news of Mongolia's export tax rate change is unconfirmed, and the port clearance continues at a high level, so the overall supply is still loose [3]. - Demand: Coke production remains high but is expected to decline due to increased inventory pressure and shrinking coking profits. During the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, increasing the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal. Overall, the coking coal supply - demand remains loose, and the price lacks upward momentum [3]. - Coke: Steel mills have initiated the third round of price cuts. The supply is stable, but the demand is weakening due to the decline in hot metal production and the approaching off - season of steel consumption. With the continuous decline of coking coal prices and weakening demand, the coke price is expected to be weak in the short term [10]. Alloys - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is cautious. The cost of manganese ore is under pressure as the south32 Australian ore is arriving at the port this week. The domestic market has not reacted significantly to Gabon's ban on manganese ore exports starting in 2029. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply has increased slightly, and the downstream is in the off - season with a strong willingness to destock. The demand is expected to weaken further, and the cost may still have a negative impact. The price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [14]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, the demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year. - Supply: There are both cold - repair and restart plans, and the supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory is accumulating, and the mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the price cuts of Hubei manufacturers [5]. Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply situation remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. - Demand: The heavy - soda demand is expected to be mainly for rigid procurement, and the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting may not be sustainable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [5].

Report Summary Core Views - The soybean market is complex. US soybean prices may form a bottom - building process in the new year, but breaking through the bottom range requires further drivers. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure is increasing, but inventory is currently low due to delayed startup. For 09 contract soybean meal, it is in a situation where external costs are likely to rise and domestic pressure is gradually increasing [2][3][5]. - The palm oil market shows that Malaysian palm oil production and exports increased in May. If palm oil production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure. The overall trend of oils is expected to be volatile [7][8][9]. - The sugar market indicates that the most tense supply stage in the international market may have passed. With the increase in future imports, the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [11][12]. - The cotton market suggests that the fundamental situation of cotton has slightly improved, but the overall commodity market sentiment is bearish, and short - term cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [14][15][16]. - The egg market has stable supply, and the current old - hen culling is in the initial stage. It is difficult to offset the pressure of new production and the off - season consumption. The short - term egg price is expected to be weakly stable [17][18]. - The pig market has sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the short term, the downward space of spot and futures prices is limited, and the long - term strategy is to sell on rallies [20][21]. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: For 09 and other far - month soybean meal contracts, when the price is at the lower cost range, pay attention to possible weather stimuli from the external market; when it is at the upper range, focus on domestic pressure and whether the bullish factors have been fully priced in [5]. - **Oils**: Given the bearish and bullish factors, it is expected that the oils will mainly fluctuate [9]. - **Sugar**: Considering the international and domestic situations, the future sugar price is likely to decline [12]. - **Cotton**: It is expected that short - term cotton prices will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Eggs**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies for near - month contracts. For medium - and long - term contracts, wait for the accumulation of contradictions [18]. - **Pigs**: Do not go long in the short term, and there is no need to chase short positions. Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the long term [21]. Important Information - **Soybean and Soybean Meal** - US soybean prices rose slightly on Thursday. The US - China presidential call brought optimistic trade sentiment, and good planting and weather conditions limited the increase. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with high supply due to high crushing volume [2]. - In the next two weeks, rainfall in most US soybean - producing areas will be favorable, but there will be less rainfall in Iowa and the north. Brazilian soybean premiums have increased recently, offsetting the decline in US soybean prices, and the cost of imported soybeans remains stable [3]. - The area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season will decrease, and the total output may be easily reduced due to yield fluctuations [3]. - **Oils** - From May 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.53%, and exports are expected to increase by 17.9% [7]. - A commodity research institution estimates that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season will be 48.8 million tons, and Malaysia's will be 19 million tons [7]. - The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil in May indicates a slight inventory build - up, but low inventories in Indonesia, India, and China provide some support for palm oil prices. If production continues to recover rapidly, oil prices will face pressure [8]. - **Sugar** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous trading day [11]. - In May, China's single - month sugar sales reached 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons; the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons; the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points [11]. - **Cotton** - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a weak oscillation. The closing price of the September contract was 13,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day [14]. - As of June 1, 2025, the US cotton planting rate was 66%, an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous week, slightly lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The budding rate was 8%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous week, maintaining a normal level [14]. - **Eggs** - The national egg prices were mostly stable, with individual minor adjustments. The average price in the main production areas remained at 2.84 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and the digestion speed in some downstream markets slowed down slightly. Most areas had little inventory pressure [17]. - **Pigs** - Domestic pig prices mainly fell. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.12 yuan to 14.17 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan, it dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.01 yuan/kg. Market supply is sufficient, and downstream demand support is average [20].

Core Insights - The Malaysian palm oil market is under pressure ahead of the MPOB report, raising concerns about whether Indian demand can offset inventory pressures [1] Group 1 - The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to open lower on Friday morning [1] - The market is closely monitoring the impact of Indian demand on the overall inventory situation [1]