商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6770 | -0.95% | 344017 | -3991 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 0 | | -35 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -61 | | -48 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 北 华 | 6770 | | 6800 | | | | 东 华 | 6910 | | 6940 | | | | 华 南 | 7050 | | 7050 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 原料端原油价格震荡，单体环节利润压缩，PE 盘面低位震荡，近端下游农膜、 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the current week, including economic data from the US and China, central bank operations, and new product listings in the futures market. It also analyzes the potential impact of these events on various futures prices [2]. Key Events and Data by Date November 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in mid - November, covering 9 categories and 50 products [3]. November 25 - 900 billion yuan of MLF is due, and the central bank is expected to conduct incremental roll - over operations [4]. - The US Department of Labor will announce the September PPI, with an expected annual rate of 2.7% and a previous value of 2.6%; the expected annual rate of core PPI is 2.7%, and the previous value is 2.8% [5]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce US September retail sales, with an August monthly rate of 0.63% and an annual rate of 5.00% [7]. - The US Conference Board will announce the November consumer confidence index, with an expected value of 93.3 and a previous value of 94.6. A lower value may boost gold and silver futures prices but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices [8]. November 26 - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22, with an expected value of 215,000 and a previous value of 220,000. A slightly lower value may slightly boost industrial product futures (except gold and silver) but suppress gold and silver futures [9]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of durable goods orders in October, with an expected value of 0.2% and a previous value of 2.9%. A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [10]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the September PCE price index. The expected annual rate of PCE price index is 2.7%, the previous value is 2.7%; the expected annual rate of core PCE price index is 2.9%, the previous value is 2.9%; the expected monthly rate of PCE core price index is 0.3%, and the previous value is 0.2%. Slight changes may strengthen the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in November [11]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce the revised value of the third - quarter GDP. The expected annualized quarterly rate of real GDP is 3.0%, the initial value is 3.8%, and the final value of the second - quarter annualized quarterly rate is 3.0% [12]. - The US Department of Commerce will announce October new home sales. The expected annualized total of seasonally - adjusted new home sales is 700,000 units, the previous value is 800,000 units; the expected monthly rate is - 11.5%, and the previous value is 20.5%. A significantly lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals futures prices but boost gold and silver futures prices [13]. - The US EIA will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending November 21. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [15]. November 27 - The Fed will release the Beige Book of Economic Conditions. Attention should be paid to its content and impact on related futures prices [16]. - Platinum and palladium futures contracts will be listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Platinum and palladium option contracts will be listed on November 28. These listings will enrich the futures market product system in China [17][18]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. The profit of these enterprises increased by 21.6% in September [19]. November 30 - The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing will announce China's official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for November. The expected manufacturing PMI is 48.8, the previous value is 49.0; the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0, the previous value is 50.1. Slightly lower values may slightly suppress commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures but boost treasury bond futures [20]. - The 40th OPEC and non - OPEC Ministerial Meeting, the 63rd OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) Meeting, and the monthly meeting of eight OPEC+ member countries will be held. Attention should be paid to the meeting results and their impact on crude oil and related commodity futures prices [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the investment rating of the LPG industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The PG futures price has declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices have fallen, the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49), and the propane - civil LPG price difference has narrowed. Warehouse receipts are 4561 lots (-54). Off - market paper prices have declined while the spread has strengthened, and the ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. The domestic chemical sector is relatively strong and civil demand is increasing, but there is expected to be a large amount of arrivals in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but the market may tend to wait and see as the CP official price announcement approaches. Weather and oil prices also need attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data 3.1 Daily Changes (2025/11/21 compared to previous day) - Civil LPG: East China 4315 (-10), Shandong 4340 (-20), South China 4550 (+200). Ether - after carbon four 4530 (-40). The lowest delivery location is East China, with a basis of -43 (+0) and a 01 - 02 spread of 109. FEI is 491 (-10) and CP is 485 (-1) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Data and Changes - PG futures: Basis -43 (-57), 01 - 02 spread 109 (-19) [1] - Domestic civil LPG: The price has fallen, and the cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49) [1] - Warehouse receipts: 4561 lots (-54) [1] - Off - market paper: Prices have fallen, and the spread has strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas has changed little. PG - CP is 126 (-2); PG - FEI is 114 (+3). East China arrival, North American and AFEI offshore discounts are flat, and Middle Eastern goods are in short supply with a discount of 35 US dollars (+13). Freight has slightly declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread has narrowed to -55 (+11) [1] - Profits and Operating Rates: Shandong PDH - to - propylene profit has slightly recovered; alkylation unit profit has slightly recovered but is still poor; MTBE production profit is volatile and export profit is still good. PDH operating rate is 69.64% (-2.1), and Dongguan Juzhengyuan PDH Phase II is expected to restart next week [1] - Inventory: Arrivals have increased, external sales have decreased, factory warehouses have slightly accumulated, and port inventories have increased [1]

Overall Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, A-share market slumped with Shanghai Composite Index down 2.45% to 3834.89, Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41% to 12538.07, and ChiNext Index down 4.02% to 2920.08. The trading volume reached 1965.7 billion yuan, up 257.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - CSI 300 Index closed at 4453.61 on November 21, down 111.34 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coking Coal and Coke - On November 21, the weighted index of coke closed at 1658.8, down 17.2 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 1136.2 yuan, down 10.8 from the previous day [2][3] - Coke supply shrank due to low industry profits and weak production motivation of coke enterprises. Demand from steel mills was limited as terminal demand weakened. Coking coal supply slowly recovered with some mines resuming production, and Mongolian coal imports increased. However, coke enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm declined [4] Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures and options net short positions increased by 3,861 to 142,589 as of the week ending October 7. Zhengzhou sugar futures contract 2601 declined due to short - selling pressure on the night of November 21 [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures declined on the night of November 21 due to short - selling pressure. As of November 21, natural rubber inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 79,463 tons to 78,675 tons, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 68,871 tons to 39,600 tons. 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 302 tons to 53,827 tons, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 504 tons to 50,199 tons [4] Live Pigs - On November 21, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11,350 yuan/ton, down 0.79%. In October, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 1.1% to 39.9 million, still above the reasonable target. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with supply pressure from large - scale farms' concentrated sales and some support from increased consumption demand in winter [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose 0.31% on November 21. US soybean exports faced competition from Brazil. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton on November 21, down 0.17%. Short - term supply was sufficient, and the market was under pressure due to abundant imports [5] Copper - The Shanghai copper market showed weak oscillation with decreasing positions. In the short term, it remained in high - level oscillation. In the long term, new demand from new energy and AI and rigid shortage of global copper ore supply may push up the copper price, but short - term fluctuations due to policy changes and capital withdrawal should be watched out for [5] Logs - On November 21, the log 2601 contract opened at 772, with a low of 768, a high of 774.5, and closed at 768.5, with an increase of 896 lots. The spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [5][6] Iron Ore - On November 21, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down 0.32% at 785.5 yuan. Iron ore shipments increased slightly, arrivals decreased, and port and steel mill inventories declined. Iron ore prices were in an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Asphalt - On November 21, the asphalt 2601 main contract closed down 0.46% at 3009 yuan. Asphalt supply continued to decline, inventory decreased, and shipments increased slightly. However, demand was limited by cold and snowy weather, and prices showed an oscillating trend in the short term [6] Cotton - On the night of November 21, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, with inventory decreasing by 1259 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 21 was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Steel - The steel market was suppressed by the low probability of Fed rate - cut in December and the lack of domestic policies. The economic work conference in December was a key event. The market was in a supply - demand re - balancing stage, with limited downward and upward space. Steel mills' winter storage demand would emerge in late December, but the scale might be smaller than last year [7] Alumina - Alumina raw material supply may gradually become sufficient as bauxite shipments from Guinea increased after the rainy season. Supply was relatively abundant, while demand was stable but weaker compared to supply [7] Aluminum - The cost of raw material alumina decreased, and smelters' profits were good, leading to high production enthusiasm. Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply would remain high. Demand was gradually entering the off - season, but spot market transactions improved slightly as aluminum prices declined [7]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

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Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures declined by 1.27% this week [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 0.40% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures fell by 1.03% [1] - Robusta coffee futures increased by 6.96% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 5.50%, closing at $5157 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures decreased by 5.29% [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.31% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 8800 - 9400, and polysilicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with the range of 51000 - 56000 [6]. - Next week, the demand side of industrial silicon remains weak, although some sub - sectors have stable demand, it's difficult to change the overall pattern and restrains price increase. The supply contraction of polysilicon will continue next week, providing some bottom support for prices, but the demand side is also weak and hard to drive price increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: As of November 20, industrial silicon rose 0.61% this week, and polysilicon fell 2.95%. The industrial silicon futures market first rose and then fell. Polysilicon first rose slightly and then declined [6]. - **Market Outlook for Industrial Silicon**: Supply may further decrease due to the dry season. Organic silicon's actual procurement demand for industrial silicon has decreased, and polysilicon enterprises mainly purchase industrial silicon for rigid needs. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry is growing steadily but cannot make up for the weakness in other fields [6]. - **Market Outlook for Polysilicon**: The supply contraction will continue. The demand from the photovoltaic industry shows a differentiated pattern of "weak terminal, stable middle". The overall demand is weak [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was 9075 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price was 52450 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot price increased, and the basis increased. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis was 475 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 150 yuan/kg [19][26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 78,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.06% [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: During November 13 - 20, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest region increased, while that in the northwest remained stable. The cost of industrial silicon increased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 43,297 lots, a decrease of 2369 lots from the previous period [39]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly production of organic silicon was 47,500 tons (0% increase), and the weekly operating rate was 72.18% (0% increase). The cost, spot price, and profit of organic silicon increased, and the production is expected to remain unchanged [46][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 20, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the inventory was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3100 tons from the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken [60]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: As of November 20, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.44 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece from the previous week, and the battery cell price was 0.29 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.00 yuan/watt from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be negative [64]. - **Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: As of November 20, the polysilicon profit was 11,880 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40,888 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 265,700 tons [71].

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has experienced a significant downturn, with the main contract price falling below the critical threshold of 1000 yuan/ton for the first time in over four months, raising concerns about the market's bottom and future trends [1] Market Performance - The glass futures market has shown weak performance, with the main contract price dropping over 2% in early trading on November 21 [1] - After the National Day holiday, production companies initiated price cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, leading to a decline in the average transaction price of large glass sheets in the Shahe region from approximately 1237 yuan/ton in early October to around 1117 yuan/ton by the end of October [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some manufacturers starting cold repairs to adjust supply, the impact has been minimal, and the speed of supply adjustment is lagging behind the decline in demand [4] - Glass companies and midstream traders have significantly higher inventory levels compared to the same period last year, contributing to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [4] - The real estate sector's downturn has directly affected glass demand, with downstream processing companies facing insufficient orders, as indicated by a drop in order days to 9.9 days, a record low [8] Future Outlook - In the short term, the glass market lacks clear driving forces, and a weak trend is likely to continue; however, prices are at a low point, and expectations for further cold repairs may stimulate some mid-to-downstream demand [11] - The recovery of the glass industry in the medium to long term will depend on the extent of supply-side capacity adjustments and the recovery of demand from the real estate market [11] - Market participants should closely monitor changes in supply-side production cuts and real estate policy developments, as well as potential technical rebound risks [11]