1. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures rebounded from a low level and showed a strong performance throughout the day, while the spot market was generally sluggish with some price cuts and slower shipments. The downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and there was no large - scale speculative restocking. Due to poor real - estate completion data, the market is pessimistic about glass consumption. With low production, weak consumption, high inventory, and short - term restocking unable to change the weak situation, attention should be paid to glass production line changes and real - estate data [1]. - Soda ash futures showed a weak and volatile trend with lower trading sentiment. The domestic soda ash price was weakly stable with flexible transaction prices. Enterprise production increased, especially for heavy soda ash, and inventory slightly decreased, but downstream demand was mainly rigid. With new production projects coming on stream, high supply pressure has reappeared, and attention should be paid to intermittent maintenance and new production of soda ash production lines [1]. Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - For silicomanganese, tariff fluctuations and poor off - season consumption expectations led to a collective decline in the black sector, with a 0.87% drop in silicomanganese futures. The spot market was weak, with prices in the north and south at 5550 - 5650 yuan/ton. Affected by industry profits, production is at a low level, although it has slightly rebounded week - on - week. With high pig iron production currently providing demand support but a strong expectation of a peak in pig iron production, high inventories of manufacturers and registered warrants are suppressing prices. Low - level and slightly rising manganese ore port inventory, along with falling manganese ore prices dragging down shipments, support alloy costs, and attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply side [3]. - Ferrosilicon futures followed the black sector and slightly declined. The spot market was weak with cautious operations. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton. With enterprises in losses, production has dropped to a near - historical low. High pig iron production maintains demand, but inventory reduction is weakening, downstream inventory is low, and production capacity is relatively abundant. Short - term prices are dragged down by costs, and attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies affecting the black sector [4]. 2. Strategy - Glass is expected to be in a volatile state, while soda ash is expected to be volatile and weak. There are no strategies for inter - delivery or inter - commodity trading [2]. - Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be in a volatile state [4].

Group 1: Report Information - Date: May 27, 2025 [1] - Industry: Polyolefins [1] Group 2: Research Team - Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins) [2] - Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil) [2] - Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG) [2] - Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon) [2] - Liu Youran (Pulp) [2] - Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7001 yuan/ton, closed at 7019 yuan/ton, highest 7057 yuan/ton, lowest 6994 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51%), with a position of 93379 and an increase of 3501 [3] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7000 yuan/ton, closed at 7008 yuan/ton, highest 7050 yuan/ton, lowest 6995 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 247 and an increase of 42 [3] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7070 yuan/ton, closed at 7080 yuan/ton, highest 7118 yuan/ton, lowest 7055 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a position of 513654 and a decrease of 2282 [3] - PP2601: Opened at 6908 yuan/ton, closed at 6885 yuan/ton, highest 6926 yuan/ton, lowest 6869 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.52%), with a position of 64751 and an increase of 4340 [3] - PP2605: Opened at 6900 yuan/ton, closed at 6899 yuan/ton, highest 6955 yuan/ton, lowest 6890 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton (-0.49%), with a position of 307 and an increase of 171 [3] - PP2509: Opened at 6945 yuan/ton, closed at 6929 yuan/ton, highest 6979 yuan/ton, lowest 6915 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (-0.69%), with a position of 492604 and an increase of 20629 [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7080 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.56%), with a trading volume of 33 lots and a position decrease of 2282 to 513654 lots [4] - PP main contract 09 closed at 6929 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan (-0.69%), with a position increase of 20600 lots to 492600 lots [4] - Supply side: Maintenance losses decreased month-on-month. As previously shut-down units restarted, supply pressure resumed, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in June [4] - Demand side: Downstream factories' inventory replenishment enthusiasm is average. The operating levels of some industries are basically flat, and new orders are scarce [4] - Market outlook: Tariff easing drove the futures price to rebound slightly, but supply pressure and lack of new orders in the off-season suppressed the market. Polyolefins are expected to consolidate weakly in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term due to the supply-demand imbalance [4] Group 5: Industry News - On May 26, 2025, the inventory of major producers was 840,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons (5.66%) from the previous working day, compared with 890,000 tons in the same period last year [5] - Domestic PP market declined slightly. Morning PP futures pressured market trading. Some regional enterprises lowered their factory prices, and the cost support weakened. Traders offered discounts to promote sales. Downstream terminals' willingness to enter the market was limited, and the morning inquiry atmosphere was weak. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, East China was 7030 - 7200 yuan/ton, and South China was 7110 - 7300 yuan/ton [5] - PE market prices declined slightly. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 90 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some linear and high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, some linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 80 yuan/ton, and some high-pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE price in North China was 7170 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7700 yuan/ton [5] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate [7][11][14] - Data sources include Wind and Zhuochuang Information [8][10][12]

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-05-26 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14400 | -135 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12645 | 20 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -760 | 25 20号胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) | 60 | -35 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1755 | -155 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 174632 | 9924 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 60115 | -910 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -32944 | 1773 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -3977 | 2125 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 199370 | -170 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 32055 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - For the corn market, the USDA's forecast of increased US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, feed enterprises in the Northeast have low purchasing enthusiasm, trade grain moves slowly, and processing enterprises' operating rates are down. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, new wheat is about to be harvested, leading to more market circulation and price cuts by processing enterprises, and the proportion of wheat in feed is increasing [2]. - For the corn starch market, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. Although supply pressure has weakened and spot prices are relatively firm, downstream demand is limited, and industry inventory remains high. Recently, the starch futures price has been weak, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2318 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2653 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Corn futures open interest (active contract) is 1280330 lots, down 28590 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract) is 239245 lots, down 829 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for corn is - 98224 lots, up 7111 lots; for corn starch, it is - 4495 lots, down 1227 lots. The registered warehouse receipts for yellow corn are 211311 lots, down 524 lots; for corn starch, they are 25340 lots, down 300 lots [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 379 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Outer - disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 459 cents/bushel, down 3.75 cents. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1637956 contracts, up 48527 contracts. The non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 11552 contracts, down 29658 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2376.27 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan; the factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun is 2690 yuan/ton, unchanged. The FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2057.71 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the corn main contract is 58.27 yuan/ton, up 9.19 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 37 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons, with no change in all countries' production forecasts [2]. - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 33.55 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.3 million hectares, in Argentina is 6.4 million hectares, and in China is 44.74 million hectares, with no change in all countries' sown area forecasts [2]. - The corn inventory at southern ports is 130.4 million tons, down 13.5 million tons; at northern ports, it is 486 million tons, down 9 million tons. The deep - processing corn inventory is 453.5 million tons, up 0.7 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 8 million tons, unchanged; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 20350 tons, down 930 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons. The sample feed corn inventory days are 35.2 days, unchanged. The deep - processing corn consumption is 119.83 million tons, up 1.28 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.61%, up 1.46 percentage points; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 55.88%, down 1.29 percentage points. The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 154 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei, it is - 85 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; in Jilin, it is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.66%, up 0.11 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.21%, up 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.04%, down 0.03 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.03%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. Industry News - As of May 21, the 2024/25 Argentina corn harvest progress is 38.8%, up 1.6 percentage points from a week ago, and the national average yield is 8.07 tons/hectare, down from 8.12 tons/hectare a week ago [2]. - The consulting agency SovEcon predicts that Russia's grain output in 2025 will reach 127.6 million tons, slightly higher than 125.9 million tons in 2024. The USDA's forecast of 1.8 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in 2025/26 restricts market prices, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations raises concerns about long - term import pressure [2]. Key Points to Watch - The mysteel corn weekly consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory data on Thursday and Friday. As of May 21, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises is 142.9 million tons, up 0.8 million tons from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.56%, a monthly increase of 3.03%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.40% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | 151 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3320 | 3350 | -30 | 261 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3078 | 3097 | -19 | 102 | | | 螺纹钢10台约 | 3046 | 3061 | -15 | 134 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3059 | 3081 | -22 | 121 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3270 | -10 | 62 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | -8 | | | ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2011 ] 1292号 2025年5月26日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 8650 | 8650 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧SI5530基准) | 735 | 770 | -35 | -4.55% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | a500 | 9500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 785 | 820 | -35 | -4.27% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8050 | 8050 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | ‍රි35 | 970 | -35 | -3.61% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月23日 | 5月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 2506-2507 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations, with a relatively strong oscillation trend from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export continue to support the aluminum price, but the off - season characteristics of terminal operating rates are obvious, and the hype about the Guinea mining rights theme has cooled down. The resistance above 20,500 is still significant, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly at high levels. The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [5][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum market is in a large - range oscillation, and it should be treated as a relatively strong oscillation from late May to early June. The low inventory during the off - season and the expectation of rush - to - export support the aluminum price, but the resistance above 20,500 is large, and it is recommended to hold a moderate amount of long positions [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was believed that the Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract would continue to consolidate around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It was advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to trade in the range of 19,800 - 20,500 during the week around the Dragon Boat Festival. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - **Suggestion for Spot Enterprises' Hedging**: Spot enterprises can consider making appropriate purchases at low prices [9]. Overall View Supply Side - **Bauxite Market**: The supply of domestic ore is expected to change little in the short term and remains tight. Although the import volume of bauxite reached a record high in April, some suppliers declared force majeure, which may affect imports after June [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 22, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, with an operating capacity of 86.35 million tons and an operating rate of 76.96%. The supply change is limited, and the spot is still in short supply. The profit margin has recovered, and enterprises' production willingness has increased. The price of domestic alumina futures is expected to be between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton next week [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: As of May 22, the theoretical operating capacity of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry was 43.865 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the room for further production increase this year is limited [10]. Demand Side - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 56% this week, with significant regional differentiation in the building materials sector. The operating rate is expected to decline slightly in the short term [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 67.6%. The export of terminal aluminum products has recovered, but it is still difficult to offset the seasonal decline in domestic consumption. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 70.6%, and the industry is in the traditional off - season. The operating rate is expected to decline [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading domestic aluminum cable enterprises decreased slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 64.8%, and it is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%, and it is expected to remain stable but weak. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 54.6%, and the terminal demand is weak. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline [11]. Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 556,000 tons, a decrease of about 4% from the previous week and about 28% lower than the same period last year, reaching the lowest level since 2017. The social inventory of aluminum rods is 127,000 tons, a decrease of about 2% from the previous week and about 35% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining slightly since May 2024 and is currently at the lowest level since 1990 [11]. Profit - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton, up from about 450 yuan/ton last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton, down from 2,900 yuan/ton last week [12]. Market Expectation - There are no significant positive or negative factors in the macro - level next week. The supply side is stable, and the "rush - to - export" will continue to support demand. However, if the alumina price drops from a high level, the Shanghai Aluminum price may fall below 20,000. It is difficult to break through the upper limit of the 20,300 range [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The price of Guinea bauxite increased slightly due to the willingness of mainstream mines to support prices. The coal market is weak, and the alumina price rose first and then fell, experiencing profit - taking [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks, and the alumina inventory has decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline [15][16]. Supply - Demand Situation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,620 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 600 yuan/ton. The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 17,700 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,600 yuan/ton. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,100 yuan/ton [18]. - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.4% this week, and it is expected to decline slightly next week [24][25]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current Shanghai Aluminum futures price structure is still neutral and relatively strong. The low inventory and the possible rush - to - export in China support the spot price against the futures price [29]. - Based on the past 10 - year statistical data, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. Shanghai Aluminum is currently running close to the high - price range of the past 10 years, and it may continue to oscillate in the next week, with possible adjustments after the Dragon Boat Festival [34]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $6.6/ton, and the A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a premium of 80 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,490 yuan/ton, and the spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, which supports the electrolytic aluminum price [36][41][42]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of the LME aluminum variety has continued to rise in the recent three weeks, and the short - term market may continue to rebound slightly. The net long position of the Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum variety has turned to a slight net short position this week, and the short - term may still have a slight adjustment [44][47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index: Defensive Observation [1][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bullish in the Short Term [5] - Rebar: Temporarily Observe [1][7] - Iron Ore: Oscillate Weakly [1][7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillate [1][9] - Copper: Cautious Trading within Range [1][12] - Aluminum: Observe [1][14] - Nickel: Observe or Short on Highs [1][15] - Tin: Range Trading [1][17] - Gold: Build Long Positions on Lows after Full Price Correction [1][19] - Silver: Range Trading [1][19] - PVC: Oscillate Weakly [1][22] - Soda Ash: Observe [1][31] - Caustic Soda: Oscillate Weakly [1][24] - Rubber: Oscillate Weakly [1][25] - Urea: Oscillate [1][28] - Methanol: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][29] - Plastic: Wide - Range Oscillation [1][30] - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Oscillate and Rebound [1][33] - Apple: Oscillate [1][33] - PTA: Range Oscillation [1][35] - Live Pigs: Oscillate Weakly [1][37] - Eggs: Short on Highs [1][39] - Corn: High - Level Oscillation [1][40] - Soybean Meal: Cautiously Chase Highs, Go Long on Pullbacks [1][42] - Oils and Fats: Short on Highs [1][47] Core Views - The global market is affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals and macro - environmental impacts. For example, tariff issues bring uncertainties to the market, while supply - demand imbalances determine the price trends of commodities [5][22][37]. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Due to international tariff threats, domestic market rotation, and weak main - line driving forces, the stock index may oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a defensive observation strategy [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the issuance of a large amount of interest - rate bonds, the biggest negative factor in the market has been digested. With the clear attitude of monetary policy support, the bond market is expected to oscillate upwards [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand contradiction is gradually emerging as demand weakens seasonally and steel mills have no strong intention to cut production. With low - level valuation, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Although affected by some events, the overall supply is increasing, and demand may decline slightly. It is recommended to observe as the 09 contract is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices face downward pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand. Coke also has supply - demand contradictions, and both are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Despite some weakening in fundamentals, low inventory still supports prices. The Shanghai copper may maintain an oscillating pattern before the holiday, and it is recommended to trade cautiously within the range [12]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in alumina price and complex supply - demand situations, and the possible impact of trade negotiations on exports, it is recommended to observe [14]. - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but there is an oversupply in the medium - long term. It is recommended to observe or short on highs as it is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **Tin**: Supply recovery expectations and the impact of tariff policies on demand may increase price volatility. It is recommended to trade within the range [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, inflation data, and tariff policies, prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to build long positions on lows after price corrections [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, the price is in a weak position. Although there is short - term tariff relief, the impact on demand still exists. The price is expected to oscillate, and macro - news should be continuously monitored [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: In June, it may show a situation of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term and be shorted in the medium term. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and downstream demand [24]. - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [25]. - **Urea**: Supply is stable, and demand is expected to be released. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to pressure and support levels [28]. - **Methanol**: Supply is relatively abundant, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a wide range [29]. - **Plastic**: Supply pressure is relieved, but downstream demand is still weak. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to factors such as downstream demand and policies [30]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is still at a high level, but the expectation of maintenance is increasing. Downstream demand is not optimistic. It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to short - term price drops and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations may lead to an oscillating rebound in cotton prices [33]. - **Apple**: With the approach of the Dragon Boat Festival, low inventory supports prices, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [33]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to oscillate within a range [34]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Supply is increasing and postponed, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on highs at the resistance level, with attention paid to factors such as enterprise slaughter rhythm and secondary fattening [37]. - **Eggs**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. In the long term, supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to observe the 06 contract and short on highs for the 08 and 09 contracts [39]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is support for prices due to reduced grassroots grain sources and positive market sentiment. In the long term, supply - demand tightens, but there are also factors such as policy release and substitute products. It is recommended to go long on lows within the range and pay attention to 7 - 9 positive spread opportunities [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate at a low level due to sufficient supply. In the long term, it may strengthen due to increased costs and weather disturbances. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs in the short term and go long on pullbacks after mid - June [42]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to oscillate within a range due to complex supply - demand factors. In the long term, they may decline in June and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to short on highs cautiously and pay attention to spread - widening strategies [47].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Range-bound trading [1] - Alumina: Reaching the peak and then declining [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - In April 2025, China's economy withstood pressure and maintained stable growth. The added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1%. From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 8% after excluding real estate development investment [1][3] - The trend strength of aluminium is 0, and that of alumina is also 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [3] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Aluminium Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract was 20,155 yuan, down 55 yuan from the previous trading day. The LME Aluminium 3M closing price was 2,466 US dollars, up 10 US dollars. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminium main contract showed certain changes compared with previous periods [1] - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,169 yuan, down 47 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with previous periods [1] Spot Market - **Aluminium Spot**: The domestic social inventory of aluminium ingots was 557,000 tons, with no change from the previous trading day. The inventory of LME aluminium ingots was 384,600 tons, down 2,300 tons [1] - **Alumina Spot**: The average domestic alumina price was 3,220 yuan, up 49 yuan from the previous trading day. The CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 393 US dollars per ton, with no change [1] - **Other Raw Materials**: The prices of pre - baked anodes, aluminium rods, and aluminium bars also showed different degrees of changes. The prices of bauxite and caustic soda remained stable in the short term [1]