5月12日，中期协发布的统计资料显示，以单边计算，4月全国期货市场成交量为8.09亿手,成交额为 70.18万亿元，同比分别增长21.49%和23.69%。1—4月全国期货市场累计成交量为26.58亿手，累计成交 额为232.20万亿元，同比分别增长22.19%和28.36%。4月末，全国期货市场总持仓量较上月下降 20.26%。 从各家期货交易所的成交情况看，上期所4月成交量和成交额同比分别增长8.97%和26.88%；上期能源4 月成交量和成交额同比分别增长64.35%和20.45%；郑商所4月成交量和成交额同比分别增长18.58%和下 降4.51%；大商所4月成交量和成交额同比分别增长34.79%和6.93%；中金所4月成交量和成交额同比分 别增长33.58%和47.9%；广期所4月成交量和成交额同比分别增长30.5%和下降4.82%。 按照成交额统计，排名各商品期货交易所前三的品种分别为上期所的黄金、白银、铜，郑商所的菜籽 油、玻璃、PTA，大商所的豆粕、棕榈油、铁矿石，广期所的工业硅、碳酸锂、多晶硅。 此外，中金所成交金额排名前三的品种分别是中证1000股指期货、30年期国债期货、沪深300股指期 ...

东 海 研 究 东 海 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月12日 [Table_Title] 4月通胀环比回升且符合市场预期 [table_main] [Table_Report] 4月CPI同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期。上游端国际大宗商品价格总体有所下降，但 内需型商品价格在基建以及消费等内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不 大，PPI降幅高于市场预期；4月份，消费政策刺激加强而且由于食品价格以及服务价格回 升，CPI环比上升，同比降幅维持不变且符合市场预期，但短期通胀仍旧较低。目前随着 天气回暖，基建项目开工有所加快，钢材、水泥等需求逐步恢复，但房地产需求仍旧偏弱， 国内工业品需求整体偏弱；短期随着美国对中国加征高额关税，内需型商品价格在消费等 内需政策支持下整体有所改善，价格中枢短期变化不大。国外由于及OPEC+增产以及美国 关税政策导致需求预期下降，原油价格整体下降；海外商品需求上升、美元走弱以及美国 加征关税导致成本上升，有色价格整体震荡反弹；但4月之后随着美国"对等关税"政策 落地，美国进口成本大幅上升，海外商品价格中枢整体上移。整体来看，上游国际大 ...

有色方面，铜价受宏观预期影响大幅波动，但基本面数据仍有韧性，在高供给下，铜、铝的社会库存仍 延续去化，铜、铝材加工率等指标也显示当前下游需求较为稳健，4月铝材出口展现超预期韧性。原料 端氧化铝持续宽松，但铜矿TC仍在下降，显示铜矿供应仍较为紧张。有色需求即将步入淡季，铜终端 产品与铝材出口的持续性也有待观察。 具体来看，中金大宗商品团队认为，原油市场方面，石油市场或将进入现货基本面转向宽松的预期验证 阶段。该团队指出，4月以来，原油期货的远期曲线呈现并不常见的"微笑"形态，即前端近月升水、而 后端远月升水。这背后或反映石油市场的近远端基本面预期出现分歧。现货市场上，OPEC+虽于4月开 启增产周期，但实际产量不升反降，关税对于油品消费的影响也暂未显现，原油库存延续偏低路径。远 期预期上，贸易摩擦和地缘局势不确定性仍在，OPEC+在政治和地缘等外生因素的影响下计划连续2个 月提速增产，加重市场对远期过剩的担忧。 但是中金大宗商品团队也表示，往前看，维持年内油价下方空间或已有限的判断。当前油价水平或已触 发边际生产者的成本挑战，美国石油活跃钻机数仍在继续下降，且今年全球海上产出增量可能再次不及 预期，非OPEC+ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Commodities may continue to move in a volatile manner with differentiated trends among varieties. Favorable factors include China's introduction of a package of policy measures to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and improve domestic demand, and the China - US high - level economic and trade negotiations easing market concerns. Unfavorable factors are the Fed's possible continued wait - and - see stance, complex overseas geopolitical factors, and increased risks of crude oil production increase due to internal disagreements within OPEC+ [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections PART ONE: Main Views - **Commodities Outlook**: The start of high - level economic and trade negotiations between China and the US can ease market concerns, but the Fed's new stage of assessing "dual risks", complex overseas geopolitical situations, and OPEC+ internal disagreements pose challenges to the overall commodity trend [3]. - **Influencing Factors and Logic**: This week, domestic commodities continued to fluctuate, with industrial products oscillating and agricultural products weakening slightly. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and the US economy showed a "strong service, weak manufacturing" structure with a record - high trade deficit. Domestically, a package of financial policies was introduced to support the economy, and the domestic consumer market remained resilient during the May Day holiday [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **Fed Policy**: On May 7, the Fed announced to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with unchanged balance - sheet reduction. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see stance in the short term as the key to US economic growth and inflation lies in tariff policies [4][8]. - **Economic Data**: The US April ISM services PMI was 51.6, while the manufacturing PMI contracted for two consecutive months to 48.7. In March 2025, the US trade deficit was $140.5 billion, a 14.0% month - on - month increase, highlighting the structural contradictions in US trade policies [4][11][12]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **Consumer Market**: During the 2025 May Day holiday, the national consumer market was prosperous, with the sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 6.3% year - on - year. Domestic consumption, especially service consumption, remained resilient [4][17]. - **Monetary Policy**: On May 7, a package of macro - monetary policies was announced, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. These policies are expected to alleviate short - term economic downward pressure and support long - term economic transformation. The April domestic manufacturing PMI fell back to the contraction range due to external demand contraction [4][20]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial Data**: As of May 9, PTA factory, polyester factory, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates were 76%, 89%, and 64% respectively. The 30 - day moving average of vehicle manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales showed certain growth rates [29][35]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: As of May 9, the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, pork, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index showed certain trends [37].

Group 1 - The price of WTI crude oil increased by 1.00%, currently reported at $61.57 per barrel [1] - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) saw an increase of 0.50%, currently reported at 0.6440 [1]

大宗商品方面，国际金价大跌。现货黄金向下触及3260美元/盎司，日内跌2%。 今日，离岸人民币盘中突然拉升。美元对离岸人民币汇率一度跌逾200点，随后跌幅有所收窄，截至 9:36报7.2289。 美股期货开盘上涨并持续走高，纳斯达克100指数期货涨逾2%，标普500指数期货涨1.4%，道指期货 涨1%。 ...

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 原油上升，金、铜震荡上行。 内需： 房、车销售回升，假期出游热电影淡。 ① 新房、乘用车销量增速升，二手房降，家电销售均价增速上行。5月新房销量增速降幅收窄，但二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售、批发增速均有 回升，但受成本抬升，需求预期悲观等因素影响，半钢胎开工率超季节性回落；家电月均销售均价同比增速上行。五一假期家电价格多有回升。 ② 假期出游热度高涨，假期国内出游人次同比增长6.4%，出游总花费同比增长8.0%，纳入监测范围的国家级夜间文化和旅游消费集聚区累计夜间客流量7595.44万 人次，同比增长5.2%。 不过，电影市场表现惨淡，五一档票房收入不到7.5亿元，同比去年同期下降45.9%。 外需： 对美出口量继续下行，但抢转口仍有支撑。 ① 港口高频数据显示，美国总进口、自中国进口货物到港量增速均大幅下滑，指向对美出口量有所减少。而东南亚地区港口停靠量大幅上升，反映抢转口仍在继 续。 ②美国正式对全球关键汽车零部件加征25%的关税，中美经贸谈判将于周末开始，关注会后通报结果。 生产： 节后库存阶段性累积，开工有所放缓。 ① 受部分钢厂铁水转移和检修减产影响 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of easing U.S. tariffs has led to a continued pullback in gold prices, prompting analysis of future market performance in commodities [1] Group 1 - The live analysis session will focus on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures [1] - The session will provide insights into the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future trajectories [1]

金十数据整理：每日全球大宗商品市场要闻速递（5月9日） 7. 马士基首席执行官：美国和胡塞武装之间的协议意味着什么具有很高不确定性；我们预计红海将在 2025年全年保持航运封闭。 1. 美国财政部网站发布关于伊朗的新制裁措施。 2. 哈萨克斯坦：没有计划在5月份削减石油产量。 3. 消息人士：美俄正在探索恢复向欧洲输送天然气的途径。 4. 印尼能源部长：印尼计划将部分燃料进口从新加坡转向美国，作为关税谈判的一部分。 5. 世界黄金协会：金价的上涨速度令人担心它的持久性。 6. 世界黄金协会：上月是自2022年3月以来最强劲的资金流入，加上金价持续飙升，推动全球黄金ETF 的资产管理规模达到3790亿美元，当月增长了10%。 ...

Core Insights - In April, China's imports decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in USD terms, a significant improvement from the 4.3% decline in March [1][3]. Import and Export Data - The total import and export value in April was 5,352.0 billion, with a cumulative value of 19,693.7 billion for the first four months, reflecting a 2.0% month-on-month increase and a 1.3% year-on-year increase [3]. - Exports totaled 3,156.9 billion in April, with a cumulative value of 11,690.6 billion, showing a 0.6% month-on-month increase and an 8.1% year-on-year increase [3]. - Imports amounted to 2,195.1 billion in April, with a cumulative value of 8,003.1 billion, indicating a 3.9% month-on-month increase but a 0.2% year-on-year decrease [3]. Commodity-Specific Insights - Significant increases in imports were noted for copper ore and its concentrates (24.53% year-on-year) and integrated circuits (7.56% year-on-year) in April [3][4]. - Conversely, imports of soybeans, refined oil, and steel saw substantial declines, with year-on-year decreases of 29.06%, 37.15%, and 20.67%, respectively [3][5]. - In terms of value, April saw copper ore and its concentrates increase by 50.42% year-on-year, while soybeans and refined oil decreased by 37.78% and 38.57%, respectively [6][7]. Cumulative Trends - For the first four months of the year, integrated circuits, copper ore and its concentrates, and crude oil showed year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 7.8%, and 0.5%, respectively [4]. - However, most major commodities experienced declines in both volume and price during this period, with iron ore imports down by 5.5% and crude oil imports up by only 0.5% [8].