1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The methanol market presents a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between current pressure and future expectations. Supply - some inland plants are expected to resume production, but the relatively healthy inventory structure in the inland area supports prices. Demand - traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected commissioning of new polyolefin plants suppresses MTO demand. Attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins still face significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, PE's operating rate is rising, with few planned maintenance, and long - term supply pressure is prominent due to domestic production growth and overseas year - end inventory clearance. For PP, its valuation has been repaired due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, and the restart rhythm of plants needs attention. In October, new plant commissioning pressure is high, and demand lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, domestic load remains high, while demand is weak due to low PTA processing fees, delayed commissioning of new PTA plants, and multiple PTA plants' maintenance plans. In the fourth quarter, PX supply - demand is expected to be weak, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on PX1 following crude oil price rebounds and reverse calendar spreads. For PTA, supply is expected to shrink, but the basis repair is limited due to loose spot circulation and weak medium - term supply - demand expectations. Absolute prices are dragged down by weak oil prices and tariff policy uncertainties. Strategies include bearish trading on TA following crude oil price rebounds and rolling reverse calendar spreads for TA1 - 5. For ethylene glycol, port arrivals are high, new plant production is increasing, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in October, with a weak supply - demand structure in the far - month. Strategies include shorting EG01, selling out - of - the - money call options on EG2601 - C - 4350, and reverse calendar spreads for EG1 - 5. For short - fiber, supply is high, and demand is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter due to tariffs and weak oil prices. However, low inventory provides some support. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PF11, and the PF processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. For bottle - chips, demand is in the traditional off - season, and it is likely to enter the inventory accumulation period. PR follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to improve slightly. Strategies include the same trading as PTA for PR, and the PR main - contract processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [6]. Benzene - Styrene - For pure benzene, supply is expected to remain high due to the resumption of some plants and new capacity commissioning. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream plants plan to reduce production. However, port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are weak. Strategies include trading BZ2603 in line with styrene and crude oil price fluctuations. For styrene, supply is expected to increase due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of some plants. Although some plants may shut down for maintenance, it is difficult to offset the new supply. Demand decreased during the holiday but is expected to recover gradually. However, downstream profit pressure and high inventory may limit demand support. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and prices are under pressure. Strategies include bearish trading on EB11 price rebounds [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, post - holiday inventory has increased significantly, and spot trading is light. Downstream non - aluminum inventory is being digested, and there may be some purchasing demand at low prices. The main alumina downstream has high inventory and low restocking willingness, and the future purchase price may be lowered. In the short term, caustic soda demand lacks support and is weak, but there is medium - to - long - term demand support from alumina's future commissioning. Short - term trading can be bearish, and downstream restocking rhythm needs to be tracked. For PVC, the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is at a high level, and demand shows no obvious improvement during the peak season, with a continuous contraction in profile demand. However, exports relieve some of the oversupply pressure. Cost provides some bottom - line support. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2307 on October 10, up 17 (0.74%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2351, up 5 (0.21%). The MA15 spread was - 44, up 12 (- 21.43%). The Taicang basis was - 136, unchanged. In terms of spot prices, the Inner Mongolia northern line was 2068 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.72%); Henan Luoyang was 2195, down 5 (- 0.23%); Taicang port was 2215, up 5 (0.23%). The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 148, up 20 (15.69%); between Taicang and Luoyang was 20, up 10 (100%) [1]. Inventory - Mid - sized methanol enterprises' inventory was 33.94 (6.08% increase); methanol port inventory was 154.3 million tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. Operating Rates - Upstream: domestic enterprises' operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); overseas enterprises in Shanghai was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); northwest enterprises' sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%). Downstream: the operating rate of externally - purchased MTO plants was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); formaldehyde was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); acetic acid was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); MIBE + was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Polyolefin Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 7037 on October 10, down 40 (- 0.57%); L2509 closed at 7124, down 34 (- 0.47%); PP2601 closed at 6722, down 23 (- 0.34%); PP2509 closed at 6782, down 25 (- 0.37%). The L2509 - 2601 spread was 87, up 6 (7.41%); PP2509 - 2601 was 60, down 2 (- 3.23%). Spot prices: East China PP fiber was 6630, down 20 (- 0.75%); North China LLDPE film was 6980, down 50 (- 0.71%) [5]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 48.9 million tons (27.67% increase), and social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%). PP enterprise inventory was 68.1 million tons (30.96% increase), and trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. Operating Rates - PE: the operating rate of plants was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%). PP: the operating rate of plants was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); powder plants was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Polyester Industry Chain Prices and Spreads - Crude oil and related products: Brent crude oil (December) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%). PX - related: CFR China PX was $809/ton, down $11 (- 1.4%); PX spot price (in RMB) was 6504 yuan/ton, down 82 (- 1.2%). Polyester products: POY150/48 price was 6770 yuan/ton, unchanged; DTY150/48 was 7850 yuan/ton, down 20 (- 0.3%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5766 yuan/ton, down 23 (- 0.4%) [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 50.7 million tons, up 24.0% from September 22; the expected arrival was 8.0 million tons, down 15.4 (- 65.8%). Operating rates: Asian PX was 79.9%, up 1.9%; PTA was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG was 75.1%, up 2.7%; polyester comprehensive was 91.5%, up 1.2% [6]. Benzene - Styrene Prices and Spreads - Upstream: Brent crude oil (November) was $62.73/barrel, down $2.49 (- 3.8%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90/barrel, down $2.61 (- 4.2%); CFR Japan naphtha was $577/ton, down $7 (- 1.2%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785/ton, down $20 (- 2.5%). Benzene - styrene: styrene East China spot was 6750 yuan/ton, down 80 (- 1.2%); EB2510 was 6670 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.8%); EB2511 was 6743 yuan/ton, down 75 (- 1.1%) [7]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Inventory: pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.10 million tons, down 1.50 (- 14.2%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 20.19 million tons, up 0.44 (2.2%). Operating rates: Asian pure benzene was 80.1%, up 1.1%; domestic pure benzene was 79.3%, up 0.6%; domestic hydrogenated benzene was 78.0%, unchanged; styrene was 73.2%, down 0.1% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - Caustic soda: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2546.9 yuan/ton, up 46.9 (1.9%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. PVC: East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4640.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900.0 yuan/ton, down 50.0 (- 1.0%) [8]. Supply and Demand - Supply (operating rates): caustic soda industry was 88.2%, up 1.4 (1.6%); PVC total was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%). Demand: caustic soda downstream - alumina industry was 83.4%, down 0.3 (- 0.3%); PVC downstream - Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 15.9%, down 23.0 (- 59.2%) [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7, up 0.1 (0.3%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8].

1. Report on the Investment Rating of the Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the vegetable oil sector, due to external macro - impacts such as the unexpected bearish supply - demand report of Malaysia in September, the weakening of international crude oil, and the end of pre - holiday stocking, the sector has shown a downward trend. Palm oil led the decline, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to the decline. - In the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions, international crude oil price drops, and supply - demand imbalances, both are expected to have limited rebound space, and it is not advisable to chase high prices, but rather wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, affected by the unexpected bearish Malaysian September supply - demand report, the vegetable oil sector weakened. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day - on - day, and decreased positions by 1961 hands [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China, affecting US soybean export sales. Argentina resumed the export tax on Thursday. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was to release an official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September would decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is approaching the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, which will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, compared to 15.6 million kiloliters under the current B40 policy. - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.9% compared to the same period in September, with a significant increase in exports to China. - From October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 2.19% week - on - week but increased by 17.18% year - on - year [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the palm oil import profit was - 569.67 yuan/ton; the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US trade disputes and the decline of international crude oil led to the weakening of US soybean oil, and the bearish Malaysian supply - demand report pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, demand weakened. In terms of supply, soybean oil production was high, and the inventory might increase. Palm oil was in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil had a relatively strong fundamental support due to the expected supply gap [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a small number of new short positions in palm oil can be added. Wait for the adjustment to end before buying new long positions in rapeseed oil, and hold short positions in soybean oil. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 10, the spot market of the two - meal was slow, and the futures market was under pressure. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all declined, with varying degrees of position increase. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 0.58% day - on - day, and increased positions by 57932 hands [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US 2025/26 soybean exports from October 2 would be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons, but the US Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the export sales report indefinitely due to the government shutdown. - The Trump administration was expected to announce a plan to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures possibly reaching up to $15 billion. - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports were expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total volume of 2024 and 2023. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased. The inventory of domestic soybean meal increased, and the contract volume decreased; the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remained flat, and the contract volume increased [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2413 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 179 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US economic and trade frictions and the decline of international crude oil pressured US soybeans. Trump planned to pressure China to resume US soybean purchases. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal was under pressure, and the demand was weak. For rapeseed meal, the approval of a company in Fujian to import Australian rapeseed had limited impact on the spot market, and the demand was limited as the aquaculture season was ending [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is not advisable to chase high prices during the rebound. Wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]

长假最后一天，她蹲在老家阳台的护栏边，指尖摩挲着金镯子内侧刻的"平安"，楼下的梧桐树影晃进 来，刚好落在茶几上那张房产证上。 其实她能懂。母亲这辈子打拼，从工厂女工做到超市收银主管，才攒下这套50平的小房子。 对她而言，这不是"老破大"，是一砖一瓦砌出来的安全感，就算你们不要我，我还有地方住。 母亲在厨房喊"中午煮红烧肉"，声音里带着藏不住的骄傲，这房子是我当年跑中介谈了半个月才买的， 以后都是你的。 她抬头看了眼墙皮脱落的客厅，又打开手机看账户：持有的铜矿股浮盈近25%，黄金从3800涨到4000， 今年已经涨了50%。 突然就懂了：普通人传给娃的，从来不是房产证上的名字，是账户里"拿得住、能生钱"的资产。 老家房是母亲的堡垒，不是我的选择题 她妈对老家的动迁安置房有多宝贝？一进门就拉着外孙的手摸瓷砖，外孙却攥着棒棒糖往电梯跑，压根 没听进去。 她跟朋友吐槽过，这房子像叙利亚风，白墙都没刷，楼道全是牛皮癣。 朋友劝她妈卖了换学区房吧，娃上学也方便。可她妈听见就炸，直言这房子是我的退休金！等我哪天不 想帮你们带娃了，自己住这儿也能活潇洒。 两个月前她把铜矿买成第一重仓，现在看着账户里近25%的浮盈，才明白什么 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: Fluctuation [1] - Coking Coal: Fluctuation [1] - Coke: Fluctuation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on October 10, 2025. It comprehensively considers factors such as supply, demand, price changes, and inventory levels of each commodity, and provides corresponding short - term trend forecasts for them [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: After the holiday, the steel rebar futures market was volatile and slightly stronger. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. However, there was a significant inventory build - up during the holiday, and the inventory digestion pressure after the holiday was still large. Although the market had strong expectations for macro - policies and the price was at a low level, the short - term industry supply - demand situation still put pressure on prices, so it was expected to move in a narrow - range [1] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose after the holiday. The supply side showed a decline in shipments, and the demand side had a slight decrease in molten iron production. With high demand supporting the price and multiple factors in a multi - empty situation, the ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. On the supply side, coal mine safety inspections might be tightened after an accident. On the demand side, coke enterprises slowed down their raw coal purchases after the profit recovery. It was expected that the coking coal futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the first round of price increases, the supply side was stable. On the demand side, steel mills' inventory decreased, and the finished product shipments were average, suppressing the replenishment demand. It was expected that the coke futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly. The cost support was relatively strong, but the supply was at a relatively high level, and the short - term fundamental upward driving force was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the change of market sentiment [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The cost support weakened, and the supply was at a relatively high level. The demand side was about to start a new round of steel tenders, and the price center of tenders was expected to move down slightly. It was expected to run weakly and fluctuate in the short term [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For various commodities such as steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the report provided the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc.) [4] - **Basis**: It presented the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis of the main contracts of various commodities and the latest values and month - on - month changes of spot prices in different regions [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on the latest values and month - on - month changes of profit (such as steel rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and inter - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) was provided [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It showed the closing price trends of the main contracts of steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through figures [6][7][10][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis trends of the main contracts of various commodities from 2022 - 2026 were presented through figures [17][19][23][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - period contract spreads of various commodities (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) were shown through figures [27][32][33][37][39] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - commodity spreads of various main contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 were presented through figures [43][45][47] - **Steel Rebar Profit**: The trends of disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the steel rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 were shown through figures [48][52] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduced the information of the black research team members of Everbright Futures, including their positions, work experience, honors, and relevant qualification numbers [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific energy and chemical product, the following ratings are given: - Crude oil: Oscillating [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Asphalt: Oscillating [3] - Polyester: Oscillating [5] - Rubber: Oscillating [7] - Methanol: Oscillating [8] - Polyolefins: Oscillating weakly [8] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): Oscillating [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical tensions have eased with the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement, leading to a decline in the geopolitical premium of crude oil and downward pressure on oil prices. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories. Under the triple tests of supply increase expectations, geopolitical factor easing, and demand entering the off - season, oil prices are expected to continue their weakening trend [1]. - **Fuel oil**: Although the East - West arbitrage window for low - sulfur fuel oil is mostly closed, the inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable, but the supply may increase in the future. The high - sulfur fundamentals may be slightly stronger than the low - sulfur [3]. - **Asphalt**: During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly. The continuous rainfall in the southern regions hinders downstream construction, while the northern regions still have some catch - up demand. The recent significant increase in asphalt production may put pressure on prices after the peak season [3]. - **Polyester**: In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may continue to increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken in the second half of October. Under the situation of supply increase and demand weakening, the fundamentals of TA and ethylene glycol are weak, and their prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Rubber**: Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", the rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease. The US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress global rubber demand. After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to new rubber warehouse receipts and crude oil price fluctuations [7]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has significantly increased, but MTO profit compression may affect refinery maintenance plans. In the short term, methanol prices are suppressed by high inventories and tend to oscillate [8]. - **Polyolefins**: Poor profit performance may lead to a high level of maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will gradually decline, affecting the procurement of raw materials. Supply pressure remains high, demand has peaked and declined, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **PVC**: In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue. As the peak season in October ends, downstream operations are expected to decline, and exports may weaken due to India's anti - dumping duties. High inventory pressure will restrict price increases, and market fluctuations may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Thursday, the price of WTI November contract closed at $61.51 per barrel, down $1.04 or 1.66%. Brent December contract closed at $65.22 per barrel, down $1.03 or 1.55%. SC2511 closed at 464.2 yuan per barrel, down 4.5 yuan or 0.96%. Israel's approval of the Gaza cease - fire agreement led to a decline in the geopolitical premium. US refinery operations and inventory data show an increase in commercial crude oil inventories and a decrease in gasoline and distillate inventories [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.25% at 2,834 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract (LU2511) closed down 1.23% at 3,360 yuan per ton. The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase, and the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is relatively stable [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2511) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.52% at 3,375 yuan per ton. During the National Day holiday, the overall supply of asphalt increased slightly, and the southern rainfall affected downstream construction [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,626 yuan per ton, up 1.54%. EG2601 closed at 4,234 yuan per ton, up 0.52%. In the fourth quarter, there will be some overseas PX device overhauls, and the ethylene glycol production capacity may increase. The demand for winter fabrics has recovered seasonally but is expected to weaken [5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai - traded rubber (RU2601) rose 95 yuan per ton to 15,620 yuan per ton. Affected by Typhoon "Maideme", rubber production in Hainan Island is expected to decrease, and the US tariff on heavy - truck imports may suppress demand [7]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,213 yuan per ton. The market is concerned about Iran's winter gas - rationing news. With the recovery of MTO device operations in East China, port demand has increased [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the mainstream price of East - China drawn polypropylene was 6,700 - 6,800 yuan per ton. Poor profit performance may lead to high - level maintenance, and domestic production is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. After the holiday, downstream orders will decline [8]. - **PVC**: On Thursday, the price of PVC in the East - China market decreased. In the fourth quarter, high - supply status will continue, and downstream operations are expected to decline as the peak season ends [9]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy and chemical products on October 10, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, polyethylene, polypropylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, styrene, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and soda ash [10]. 3.3 Market News - Israel and Hamas have reached a long - sought cease - fire and personnel release agreement, which weakens the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil and triggers investors to sell [12]. - In the absence of strong new signals in supply and demand, crude oil prices have also declined with the broader market. The US government shutdown and the strengthening of the US dollar have reduced the attractiveness of dollar - denominated commodities. Oil prices are likely to remain range - bound and slightly downward [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European container shipping, and p - xylene [14][17][20][21][23][25][27][28]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, p - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][35][36][39][42][44]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads The report displays the spreads between different contracts for various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51][54][58][60]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads The report presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [62][65][67][68]. 3.4.5 Production Profits The report shows the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE from 2021 to 2025 [70][73]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant to the director of the research institute and director of energy and chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures and derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain and has won many industry awards [78]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with strong data analysis and logical thinking abilities, and has won several industry awards [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in integrating financial theory and industrial operations [80].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/10/9 | 项目类别 | | 数据指标 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,096.00 | +24↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1908129 | +34297↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -103401 | +29044↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | -63 | -7↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 281436 | -10110↓ HC2601-RB2601合约价差(元/吨) | 190 | +9↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,290.00 | +10↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,374 | +10↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,310.00 | 0.00 天津 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,210.00 | +10↑ | | | RB 主力合约基 ...

There aren’t many upsides to the US government being shut down, most notably it’s the next big step forward to autocracy. But if looking for a golden needle in a grain pile of wheat, then I can say the fact the US government has been sucked into a black hole for what was supposed to be a USDA WASDE report day means the industry will be forced to actually pay attention to what markets are saying about supply and demand. The reality is this won’t happen. Most of the industry will spend the day like an addic ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the future upward momentum may mainly come from macro - level support. The domestic macro - environment is likely to improve, and there is also a possibility of improvement in the international macro - environment [8][25][26] Summary by Directory 1. Macroeconomic Situation Domestic - As of the end of August 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) was 331.98 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. In August, new RMB loans were 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 310 billion yuan. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [9] - In August 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.4% year - on - year and remained flat month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and the month - on - month change turned from a 0.2% decrease to flat [12] - From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. New commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. Real estate development enterprise funds in place were 643.18 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. In August, the real estate development climate index was 93.05 [14] - In August 2025, macro - economic data showed no significant improvement, and demand remained weak. Except for the improvement in PPI, other economic indicators were weak. However, the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in September, approaching the 50% boom - bust line, indicating possible improvement in September's macro - economic data [16][17] International - In August 2025, the US CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.9%. In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI increased by 0.2% from the previous month to 2.2%. Current inflation in Europe and the US has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost economic growth [18] - On September 18, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [20] - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy, but the US economy remains resilient. In September, the US manufacturing PMI increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.1%, and the service PMI decreased by 2 percentage points to 50% [23] - During the National Day, the US government shut down again, increasing market concerns. Wall Street analysts pointed out that this may lead to further deterioration of the US job market. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.1% [25] 2. Fundamentals PE - In September 2025, PE production and capacity utilization declined. Capacity utilization was 80.47%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from the previous period, and production was 2.7079 million tons, a decrease of 4.22 percentage points from the previous period. The decrease was mainly due to the shutdown of new devices [27] - In September, the peak consumption season for PE arrived, and demand increased. The overall agricultural film start - up rate increased by 11.3% month - on - month, and the average start - up rate of packaging film was 51.48%, an increase of 2.04% month - on - month [30] - In September, the social sample warehouse inventory of PE decreased. At the end of the month, the inventory was 524,500 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons month - on - month and 54,500 tons year - on - year [31] - In September, the PE fundamentals improved. Supply decreased while demand continued to pick up, leading to a decrease in social inventory and stronger support for PE prices [36] PP - In September 2025, China's PP production was 3.3446 million tons, a decrease of 159,900 tons from August, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56% and a year - on - year increase of 13.73%. Production decreased significantly due to equipment failures and cost reasons [37] - In September, the average start - up rate of PP downstream was 51.10%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 0.63%. Although the start - up rates of some industries increased, the demand for modified PP and PP pipes declined significantly year - on - year [38][40] - At the end of September 2025, the inventory of PP producers was 520,300 tons, a decrease of 3.39% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of PP traders was 187,200 tons, an increase of 1.90% from the end of the previous month [43] - In September, PP also showed a relatively good situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand [46] 3. Market Outlook - For PE in October 2025, domestic supply will face pressure from the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices. Import volume will increase under the condition of loose overseas supply. Demand growth is slower than in previous years, resulting in a situation of oversupply in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation after the National Day holiday, so PE prices may decline after the holiday [8] - For PP in October 2025, the planned maintenance loss is expected to increase by 0.2%. The 400,000 - ton/year PP plant of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation, and production is expected to increase by 3.54% month - on - month to 3.463 million tons. Although it is the peak demand season, supply still exceeds demand. After the National Day holiday, inventory consumption is still a concern, and PP prices are likely to remain weak [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Aluminum - After the National Day holiday, the short - term price of alumina is expected to be weak, with the main contract operating in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. The focus of the game in the fourth quarter is the production cut intensity of enterprises after profit decline. [1] - The price of aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton. [3] Zinc - The price of LME zinc remained strong during the National Day holiday. The domestic supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The performance of SHFE zinc will continue to be under pressure. [5] Copper - During the National Day holiday, the overseas copper price continued to rise. The weak US dollar and supply shortage are the important drivers. In the medium - and long - term, the supply shortage of copper ore will solidly support the bottom of the copper price, and the main support is at 84000 - 85000. [7] Tin - The tin price is expected to continue the strong shock. Attention should be paid to the demand performance in "Golden September and Silver October" and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter. [9] Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main price center of reference in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel disk is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main operating range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. [13] Nickel - The nickel disk is expected to maintain a range - bound shock, with the main reference range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. [14] Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20720 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20 yuan/ton. [1] - The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1687 yuan/ton, down 49.4 from the previous value; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.77, down 0.01 from the previous value. [1] Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. [1] - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum is 59.20 million tons, down 7.21% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 50.6 million tons, up 0.21% day - on - day. [1] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 and related products remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference of some aluminum products increased. [3] Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. [3] - The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 5.57 million tons, up 0.72% week - on - week. [3] Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21830 yuan/ton, up 0.92% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 4225 yuan/ton, down 796.03 from the previous value. [5] Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc output was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% month - on - month. [5] - The social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots in seven places is 14.14 million tons, down 9.94% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 3.8 million tons, up 0.13% day - on - day. [5] Copper Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 83240 yuan/ton, up 1.25% from the previous value; the refined - scrap price difference is 3149 yuan/ton, up 13.65% from the previous value. [7] Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper output was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, the import volume was 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. [7] - The domestic social inventory of copper is 14.83 million tons, up 2.63% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 14.34 million tons, down 0.35% day - on - day. [7] Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin is 277200 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 19477.39 yuan/ton, down 22.88% from the previous value. [9] Fundamental Data - In August, the tin ore import volume was 10267 tons, down 0.11% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output in September was 10510 tons, down 31.71% from the previous value. [9] - The SHEF inventory of tin is 6559.0 tons, down 1.98% week - on - week; the social inventory is 7890.0 tons, down 6.66% week - on - week. [9] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. [11] Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month. [11] - The total inventory of lithium carbonate in August was 94177 tons, down 3.75% month - on - month. [11] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The spot - futures price difference increased by 6.52%. [13] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% month - on - month. [13] - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 47.74 million tons, up 1.13% week - on - week; the SHFE warehouse receipt is 8.70 million tons, down 0.21% day - on - day. [13] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 122450 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the futures import profit and loss is - 1076 yuan/ton, up 471 from the previous value. [14] Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel products is 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel is 17536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month. [14] - The SHFE inventory is 29834 tons, up 8.49% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 231312 tons, up 0.52% day - on - day. [14]