1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Short - term fundamentals remain strong. Tin prices are expected to stay strong within the year. Maintain a bullish view on tin prices, hold long positions, and consider buying on dips. Monitor subsequent macro and supply - side changes [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The market is in a state of strong cost and weak demand. ADC12 prices have limited upside and downside space. The price is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Focus on changes in scrap aluminum supply, regional environmental policies, and downstream orders [4]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon prices remain in high - level oscillation, and futures prices are still at a significant premium to the spot market. Pay attention to the reduction in production or price decline pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for now, and focus on the subsequent production cuts and price adjustment acceptance. Remind investors to manage their positions [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly. Futures prices oscillated and declined. Supply and demand both decreased moderately, and the expectation of industrial silicon production cuts further increased. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in December, with the main price fluctuation range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may break through 10,000 yuan/ton; otherwise, it will fall [6]. Zinc Industry - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and zinc prices are oscillating. Domestic zinc concentrate production is in the off - season, while overseas zinc ore imports have increased. Refining production is limited due to profit pressure. Downstream demand is stable, and domestic spot zinc ingots maintain a premium with continuous inventory depletion. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze risk has eased. The main contract should pay attention to the support at 22,850 - 22,950 [8]. Copper Industry - Against the background of the overseas inventory structural imbalance, copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward drivers are the weak demand feedback. In the long - term, the bottom center of copper prices may continue to rise, and the main contract should pay attention to the support at 92,500 - 95,000 [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate at a low level around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Pay attention to environmental protection policies and corporate production cuts. Aluminum prices lack a one - way driver and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the SHFE aluminum main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Focus on macro - expectations and domestic inventory changes [15]. Nickel Industry - The nickel market sentiment has improved due to low valuations and mine - end news, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose. The price upside is restricted. The short - term is expected to continue oscillating and repairing, but the driving force is limited. Pay attention to the possibility of a callback after the news is digested, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 13,000. Pay attention to nickel - mine news and steel - mill production - cut implementation [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term wide - range oscillation. The price may continue to test the high and then retreat and adjust. Pay attention to policies and news [19]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin prices rose by 1.04%, and LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 82.26%. The import loss increased by 4.56% [2]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the spread between 2602 - 2603 increasing by 52.78% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports, SMM refined tin production, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate increased significantly, while refined tin imports and exports decreased [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF weekly inventory and social inventory increased, while SHEF daily warehouse receipts and LME daily inventory decreased [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions rose by 0.46%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference in some areas increased [4]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The operating rate of recycled and primary aluminum alloys increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.38% [4]. Polysilicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Some N - type silicon product prices rose, and the N - type material basis increased by 17.85% [5]. - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price decreased by 2.32%, and most inter - month spreads changed significantly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly and monthly silicon wafer and polysilicon production decreased, polysilicon imports decreased, and exports increased [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon inventory remained unchanged, and silicon wafer inventory decreased by 7.73% [5]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis**: Some industrial silicon spot prices rose slightly, and the basis increased [6]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed significantly, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 100% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: National and regional industrial silicon production decreased, while the production of organic silicon DMC and recycled aluminum alloy increased. The national operating rate decreased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang and Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased, while social inventory decreased by 1.43% [6]. Zinc Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot prices decreased slightly, and the import loss increased [8]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production and imports decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream processing industries were basically stable [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory and LME inventory decreased [8]. Copper Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper prices rose by 1.43%, and the import loss increased [12]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: All inter - month spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased, and imports decreased. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production decreased, while that of recycled copper rod production increased [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social, bonded, and SHFE inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased [12]. Alumina and Aluminum Industry Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: Alumina prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the import profit decreased [15]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased, and the operating rate increased slightly [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina factory - warehouse and port inventories changed, with the port inventory decreasing by 7.69% [15]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum prices rose by 0.50%, and the import loss increased [15]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the AL 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, imports decreased, and exports increased [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories increased [15]. Nickel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel prices rose by 1.42%, and the import profit increased [16]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2602 - 2603 spread increasing by 40 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: In November, China's refined nickel production and imports decreased. SHFE and social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [16]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Prices and Basis**: 304/2B stainless - steel coil prices in some regions rose slightly, and the spot - futures price difference decreased [18]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the 2603 - 2604 spread decreasing by 5 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production decreased slightly, imports decreased, and exports increased. The 300 - series social inventory decreased [18]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - **Prices and Basis**: SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices rose, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price also increased [19]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: All inter - month spreads decreased [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. The total inventory decreased significantly [19].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 4142.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4144.00 CNY before dropping to a low of 3996.00 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 2.00% [1] Group 2 - Kpler reported that Myanmar is expected to resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports next year, having received half a shipment last month, ending a four-year hiatus in LNG imports [2] - The Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum announced a new oil and gas exploration agreement with the UK-based Tullow Oil [2] - As of December 22, the Dalian Commodity Exchange recorded 5368 LPG futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a cumulative decrease of 108 receipts over the past week, representing a decline of 1.97%, while there was a cumulative increase of 807 receipts over the past month, indicating a growth of 17.69% [2] Group 3 - Zhonghui Futures indicated that from a medium to long-term perspective, the supply of crude oil exceeds demand, leading to a downward adjustment in price levels, suggesting that LPG prices still have room for compression. The short-term technical outlook shows a rebound in costs, but the medium to long-term outlook remains under pressure, with a weak trend expected. The strategy recommended is to maintain short positions, focusing on the price range of 4050-4150 CNY [2] - Nanhua Futures analyzed that the domestic supply remains tight, with low port arrivals and inventory depletion. Demand has not changed significantly, with stable chemical demand and PDH operations recovering to 75% despite ongoing losses. Overall, there is still relative support in the near term, with attention to marginal changes [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All the energy - chemical products covered in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2] 2. Report's Core View - On Monday, the price center of crude oil shifted upwards, with WTI February contract rising by $1.49 to $58.01 per barrel (2.64% increase), Brent February contract rising by $1.60 to $62.07 per barrel (2.65% increase), and SC2601 closing at 439.7 yuan per barrel (1.71% increase). China's crude oil imports in November 2025 were 50.891 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The geopolitical situation has heated up, pushing up oil prices [1]. - The fuel oil market showed an increase on Monday. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market also had some support. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market is expected to decline in December and may rebound in January. The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by downstream demand [2]. - The asphalt price increased on Monday. Affected by the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela, the cost - side support is strong, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering the limited supply increase and low factory inventory, the downward price space is limited [2]. - In the polyester market, TA605 rose by 3.24% and EG2605 fell by 0.08%. Some MEG and PTA devices have restarted or are expected to restart. The demand is in the off - season, and although the upstream has good expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, the terminal demand support for prices is limited [2][4]. - In the rubber market, on Monday, the main contract of natural rubber showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased. Domestic rubber production has entered the off - cutting period, overseas raw materials are expected to increase, and downstream demand weakens at the end of the year, so the rubber price is expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - The methanol market showed a bottom - oscillating trend. The supply of domestic overhaul devices is stable at a high level, and the Iranian supply remains low. The demand of MTO devices is expected to weaken, and the inventory may fluctuate in the future [6]. - The polyolefin market is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend. The production will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening [6]. - The PVC market is expected to be at the bottom and oscillate. The supply is expected to decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down as the real estate construction slows down [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices rose, and China's crude oil imports increased. The geopolitical situation, including the Russia - Ukraine issue and the US - Venezuela issue, has an impact on oil prices, and the short - term rhythm needs attention [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of the main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil increased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply may change, and the high - sulfur fuel oil is supported by demand. The absolute price may follow the oil price, and the cracking spread may remain stable and rise [2]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price increased. The cost - side is supported by geopolitics, but the terminal demand is weak. Considering supply and inventory, the downward space is limited, and it may follow the oil price [2]. - **Polyester**: The price of TA605 rose, and EG2605 fell slightly. Some devices have restarted, the demand is in the off - season, and the price of PX and TA may rebound in the short - term with limited space, while the upward pressure on the ethylene glycol price is high [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The prices of different rubber varieties showed a mixed trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and considering production and demand, the rubber price is expected to oscillate [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. Domestic supply is stable at a high level, Iranian supply is low, MTO demand weakens, and inventory may fluctuate [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The polyolefin market is expected to be weak and oscillating. Production remains high, and downstream demand weakens [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply may decline slightly, and domestic demand will slow down [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Base - price Information**: The report provides the base - price data of various energy - chemical products on December 23, 2025, including the spot price, futures price, base price, base - price rate, and their changes compared with previous periods. For example, the base price of crude oil (SC) was - 8.76 yuan per barrel, and the base - price rate was - 2.02% [9]. 3.3 Market News - **Geopolitical News**: The Russia - Ukraine issue is still being watched. The tripartite meeting between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has not been seriously discussed, and Ukraine launched a drone attack on a Russian - related oil tanker. The US Coast Guard is chasing an oil tanker near Venezuela, and the US has announced a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report shows the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **Main Contract Base Price**: The base - price charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc., are presented, showing the base - price changes over time [30][32][35] - **Inter - period Contract Price Difference**: The price - difference charts of inter - period contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc., are provided, showing the price - difference changes between different contracts [43][44][45] - **Inter - variety Price Difference**: The price - difference and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external price difference, fuel oil high - low sulfur price difference, etc., are shown [60][62][65] - **Production Profit**: The production - profit charts of LLDPE and PP are presented [68] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Research Team Members**: The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences. For example, Zhong Meiyan is the assistant director and energy - chemical director, with rich experience in the futures derivatives market [73]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14070元/吨，较前一日变动+55元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14986元/吨，较前一日变动+7元/吨，现货基差CF05+916，较前一日变动-48；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF05+1084，较前一日变动-46。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12月12日至12月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验19.93万吨， 83.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为19.34万吨，皮马棉为0.59万吨。至同期，累计分级检验 242.43万吨，82.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为236.65万吨，皮马棉为5.78万吨。 市场分析 市场情绪有所好转，板块整体震荡回升 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report presents a cautious and bearish outlook on the energy and chemical industries, with some potential for short - term rebounds [1][3][6] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PTA, MEG, methanol, urea, LNG, asphalt, glass, and soda ash. It provides core views on each product, such as short - term rebounds or long - term bearish trends, based on factors like supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and cost changes [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Short - term rebound due to rising South American geopolitical uncertainty, but long - term bearish due to oversupply in the off - season [1][9] - Market Performance: WTI, Brent, and SC rebounded overnight, with WTI rising 2.64%, Brent rising 2.55%, and SC rising 1.22% [7][8] - Fundamental Analysis: South American geopolitical uncertainty increased as the US seized Venezuelan oil tankers. Demand is expected to increase in 2025 and 2026, but US inventories showed mixed changes in the week ending December 12 [9][10] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [11] LPG - Core View: Short - term rebound supported by the cost side, but long - term bearish [1][12] - Market Performance: On December 22, the PG main contract closed at 4100 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [14] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply increased as refinery operations rose, and downstream chemical demand was resilient. Inventories decreased both at ports and in factories [15] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [16] L - Core View: The market returned to a weak state after the commissioning of a new device [17] - Market Performance: L05 closed at 6320 yuan/ton, down 2.4% [18] - Fundamental Analysis: The commissioning of a 500,000 - ton new device by BASF increased supply pressure. The off - season for agricultural films led to decreased demand, and inventory faced de - stocking pressure [20] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] for L [20] PP - Core View: High inventory constrained the rebound space, and the market oscillated at a low level [21] - Market Performance: PP05 closed at 6213 yuan/ton, down 1.1% [22] - Fundamental Analysis: Total commercial inventory remained at a high level. Demand entered the off - season in December, and the de - stocking pressure was high [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on the range of [6150 - 6300] for PP [24] PVC - Core View: The market rebounded from the bottom supported by low valuation [25] - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4652 yuan/ton, down 1.2% [26] - Fundamental Analysis: Although the upper - middle stream inventory was high and supply reduction was insufficient, many domestic devices had cash - flow losses, and some marginal devices started to reduce loads [28] - Strategy: Go long in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory de - stocking to go long on dips in the long term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] for V [28] PTA - Core View: The supply - demand pattern was good, and consider buying on dips [29] - Market Performance: TA05 closed at 4674 yuan/ton, down 48 [29] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply decreased as many domestic devices were under planned maintenance, and overseas devices were partially increased in load. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken. There was a risk of inventory accumulation in January [30] - Strategy: Consider buying TA05 on dips. Focus on the range of [4980 - 5100] for TA [31] MEG - Core View: Supply - demand weakened, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation. Consider shorting on rebounds [32] - Market Performance: EG05 closed at 3619 yuan/ton, down 56 [32] - Fundamental Analysis: Domestic device loads increased, and overseas devices were expected to reduce loads. Downstream demand was good but expected to weaken, and port inventories were rising [33] - Strategy: Consider shorting EG05 on rebounds. Focus on the range of [3680 - 3770] for EG05 [34] Methanol - Core View: Port inventory decreased, but demand was under pressure. Be cautious about chasing long positions [35] - Market Performance: Not specifically mentioned in a prominent way [37] - Fundamental Analysis: Spot prices in Taicang weakened slightly, and the negative basis strengthened. Supply pressure remained as the arrival volume in December was estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and demand weakened slightly [37] - Strategy: Do not chase long positions. Consider buying methanol 05 on dips [39] Urea - Core View: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, and the market oscillated weakly [40] - Market Performance: URO5 closed at 1697 yuan/ton [40] - Fundamental Analysis: Gas - based urea device operations decreased significantly, but overall load was still high. Demand was expected to weaken, and inventory was at a relatively high level [41][42] - Strategy: The market is expected to oscillate weakly. Consider buying UR05 on dips. Focus on the range of [1670 - 1690] for UR05 [43] LNG - Core View: Supply was sufficient, and gas prices were under downward pressure [44] - Market Performance: On December 19, the NG main contract closed at 3.984 dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.94% [46] - Fundamental Analysis: Demand support decreased due to mild weather in the US, and supply was relatively abundant [47] - Strategy: Although there is demand support in the consumption season, gas prices are under downward pressure due to sufficient supply. Focus on the range of [3.895 - 4.260] for NG [47] Asphalt - Core View: South American geopolitical uncertainty vs. weak supply - demand, the market oscillated within a range [48] - Market Performance: The main contract (2602) closed at 2909 yuan/ton, down 1.46% [48] - Fundamental Analysis: Supply was relatively sufficient, and demand entered the off - season. The cracking spread and BU - FU spread were returning to normal but still had room for compression [50] - Strategy: Partially close short positions due to South American geopolitical uncertainty. Focus on the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [51] Glass - Core View: Factory inventory ended a three - week decline, and the market oscillated at a low level [52] - Market Performance: FG05 closed at 1041 yuan/ton, down 2.0% [52] - Fundamental Analysis: High inventory constrained the rebound space. The melting volume remained stable, and demand was weak. Process profits turned negative [54] - Strategy: Partially close short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long term. Focus on the range of [1000 - 1050] for FG [54] Soda Ash - Core View: Warehouse receipts increased, and the market oscillated weakly [55] - Market Performance: SA05 closed at 1176 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [56] - Fundamental Analysis: Warehouse receipts continued to increase, and although short - term supply pressure was relieved by maintenance, long - term supply was expected to be loose due to the planned commissioning of a new device. Demand support was insufficient [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star indicates a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for an upward/downward trend, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastics: ★★☆ (Two stars indicate a long/short position, with a clearer upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Other products with ☆☆☆: Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1][10] 2. Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations. For some products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed lower. The market supply is relatively abundant, and producers have a strong willingness to stabilize the market [2] - Polyethylene and polypropylene futures fell sharply. Polyethylene has high - load supply, slow inventory removal, and weak demand. Polypropylene has sufficient supply and expected weakening demand in the off - season [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated weakly in the morning and rebounded in the afternoon. There are expectations of supply - demand pressure relief, but the supply growth expectation limits the driving force. Consider long - spread position building on dips in the medium term [3] - Styrene futures closed higher, maintaining a low - level range - bound pattern. The market is expected to have both supply and demand growth, but supply may increase more, and the weak pure benzene market has limited support [3] Polyester - PX has no new capacity in three years, and the recent sharp increase is due to supply decline expectations. PTA is driven by PX, and polyester has a short - term stable start but a medium - term load - reduction expectation [5] - Ethylene glycol rebounded due to supply contraction expectations but lacks upward drive. It is expected to be under long - term pressure and trade in a low - level range [5] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, with a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip demand weakens, with cost - driven price increases and poor profitability [6] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol overseas plant operations decline. The port may accumulate inventory in the short term, with short - term weak and volatile market and medium - long - term upward driving force [7] - Urea gas - head plant maintenance leads to a slight decline in production. The market is oversupplied, and short - term prices may fall with market sentiment [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC prices fell. Supply pressure eases, but demand is low, and cost support weakens. It may operate at a low level [8] - Caustic soda prices fluctuated. Supply pressure is high, downstream demand growth is limited, and industry profits will continue to be compressed [8] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is large, and demand may decline. Consider short - selling on rebounds and a long - glass short - soda ash strategy [9] - Glass prices weakened. Inventory pressure increases, demand is insufficient, and the industry needs to continue to cut production capacity. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 22 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。集运指数（欧 ...

今日A股市场高开高走，三大指数集体反弹，创业板指涨超2%。沪深两市成交额1.86万亿，较上一个交易日放量1360亿。 盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超2900只个股上涨，其中有105只个股涨停。板块方面，海南自贸区、贵金属、算力硬件等板块涨幅居前，医药商 业、影视院线、教育、银行等板块跌幅居前。 整个贵金属板块就像打了鸡血一样，集体狂飙。 说实话，贵金属涨没问题，这样集体暴走，属实有点出乎意料。 要知道，今年白银的涨幅已经翻了一倍多，黄金也飙升了差不多三分之二。 这到底是怎么回事呢？ 先说说大环境。 截至收盘，沪指涨0.69%，深成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨2.23%。 而在今天众多大涨的板块中，贵金属板块在近期的表现真的很亮眼。 现货黄金首次站上4400美元，白银冲破69美元，铂金突破2000美元大关，钯金也上窜1786美元，一个个的都在创历史新高。 | 国际当金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4405,100 | 66.740 | 1.54% | 67.87% | | 伦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Short on rebound [3] - Methanol: Cautiously chase up [3] - Urea: Oscillate weakly [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical uncertainties, supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and inventory levels. It provides investment suggestions for each product based on their specific market conditions [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties and supply surplus pull the oil price, which oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors include the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and rising uncertainties in South America. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with increasing global floating storage and on - the - way crude, and rising inventories in the US. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1][9]. - **Strategy**: Add short positions. Focus on SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11]. LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations increase, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. Inventory is favorable, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing [1][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16]. L - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: Supply elasticity is insufficient, and the basis is continuously weak. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand, with low shutdown ratios and insufficient maintenance. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are increasing slightly, facing de - stocking pressure [1][20]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Focus on L in the range of [6250 - 6400] [20]. PP - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: The total commercial inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. In December, the demand enters the off - season, and the shutdown ratio drops. The PDH profit is compressed, increasing the expectation of maintenance. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Short the MTO05 spread. Focus on PP in the range of [6150 - 6300] [24]. PVC - **Core View**: Bearish continuation. - **Main Logic**: High inventory and high premium structure limit the rebound space. Although overseas device shutdowns and maintenance support exports, the current upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, and supply reduction is insufficient. Recently, both chlorine and alkali prices have fallen, and some marginal devices are reducing loads [1][27]. - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long on dips in the long - term. Industrial customers should hedge at high prices. Focus on V in the range of [4550 - 4650] [27]. PX/PTA - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up. - **Main Logic**: The supply side has a slight reduction in load, with significant maintenance of PTA devices. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. The cost end provides support. In the short - term, the fundamentals are healthy, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [3][29]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on TA in the range of [4880 - 5010] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Core View**: Short on rebound. - **Main Logic**: Domestic ethylene glycol device operation loads increase, and overseas devices change little. Downstream demand is relatively good but expected to weaken. Port inventories are rising, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver [3][32]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on EG05 in the range of [3710 - 3770] [33]. Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up. - **Main Logic**: Taicang spot prices weaken slightly, and the negative basis strengthens. Port inventories are decreasing, while social inventories are increasing. The supply side has relatively good profits for coal/coke oven gas processes, and domestic device operation loads are at a high level. Overseas devices have a slight reduction in load. The demand side weakens slightly, and coal - based costs are expected to strengthen [3][36]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the rally. Look for opportunities to buy on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on MA05 in the range of [2131 - 2181] [38]. Urea - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong stabilizes. The supply pressure is expected to increase in late December as some devices resume production. The demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. However, the domestic and overseas arbitrage window is not closed [3][40]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Focus on UR05 in the range of [1660 - 1700] [42]. Natural Gas - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish. - **Main Logic**: The shutdown of a production line at the US Freeport and relatively mild recent temperatures put pressure on gas prices. Supply increases as US exports decrease, and demand support weakens due to mild weather [6][45]. - **Strategy**: Focus on NG in the range of [3.895 - 4.260] [45]. Asphalt - **Core View**: Bearish rebound. - **Main Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. The supply and demand are both weak, but recent South American geopolitical uncertainties cause a short - term price rebound [6][48]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Focus on BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49]. Glass - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The in - plant inventory ends a three - week decline. High inventory limits the rebound space. The production line is stable, and the three - process profits turn negative. Real estate volume and prices are in an adjustment period [6][52]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions in the short - term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on FG in the range of [1020 - 1060] [52]. Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation. - **Main Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts increases, and the in - plant inventory ends a five - week high - level decline. Although maintenance eases short - term supply pressure, the planned commissioning of a 2.8 - million - tonne device at Yuanxing in late December will keep the long - term supply loose. The demand support from the glass industry is insufficient [6][56]. - **Strategy**: Partially close short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short in the long - term. Focus on SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [56].