中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | PTA | 加工费整体偏低，装置复产延期叠加检修力度有所提升（虹港石化检 修、逸盛宁波本月下旬检修、英力士检修中，威联化学降负），供应端压 | | PX/PTA | | 力有所缓解；需求略显改善，终端订单短期企稳，但稳定性有待跟踪。成 | | | 谨慎看多 本端 | PX 国内外均有所降负（上海石化、中化泉州停车，越南 NSRP 降负）， | | ★ | | 走势偏强。TA12 月存累库预期。短期来看，基本面有所改善，但原油承 | | | | 压，反弹高度或将有限。策略：单边关注逢低布局多单机会；套利关注做 | | | 扩 | ta 加工费（即多 pta，空 px）。 | | | | 近期国内煤制装置检修有所增加，开工负荷下行（红四方临停、正达凯检 | | | | 修、广汇降负、河南能源延后重启）、海外装置略有提负（台湾南亚 1#重 | | 乙二醇 | | 启），新装置投产（裕龙石化投产；宁夏畅亿、襄矿泓通计划投产）叠加 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 检修装置恢复 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - **Rebar**: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - **Glass**: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - **Styrene**: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - **Methanol**: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - **PTA**: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - **Apples**: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - **Jujubes**: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - **Eggs**: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - **Corn**: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - **Oils**: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the soda ash market showed a low - level wide - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals presented a situation of weak supply and demand. Although some enterprises' device reduction led to a narrow contraction in supply and manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, high inventory pressure still existed, and the flat terminal demand restricted the upward price space. The relatively strong price of thermal coal at the cost end provided some support for soda ash, but the oversupply pattern did not change substantially, and the market lacked a driving force for a trending rise, continuing the oscillation trend overall. Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies while being vigilant about the low - level cost support risk, paying attention to the spread opportunities between near - and far - month contracts, and considering inter - period arbitrage opportunities after the price rebounds to the resistance level, as well as using the covered call strategy to increase returns when appropriate [8][36][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated within the range of 1188 - 1247 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon closing on November 14, 2025, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 rose 16 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.32%, closing at 1226 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: As of November 13, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 739,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,600 tons, a decline of 1.01%. Among them, the light soda ash output was 328,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 410,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.80%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87%. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03%, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 73.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.17%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.49%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08% [7][9][11]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7073 million tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons from the previous Thursday, a decline of 0.40%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 800,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,400 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 907,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory increased by 59,200 tons, a rise of 3.59% [7][14]. - **Shipment**: On November 13, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 746,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.57%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 100.93%, a week - on - week increase of 2.57 percentage points [16]. - **Profit**: As of November 13, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 23.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [19][23]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Output**: As of November 13, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,100 tons, the same as on the 6th. The weekly output of national float glass from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 1.1139 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08% and a year - on - year increase of 0.76% [26]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 111,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year increase of 33.61%. The inventory days were 27.5 days, an increase of 0.4 days compared with the previous period [30]. 3.4 Price Changes The report shows the weekly price changes of various products, including thermal coal, raw salt, light and heavy soda ash, float glass, photovoltaic glass, caustic soda, ammonium chloride, and synthetic ammonia. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal increased by 40 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.08%, and the price of float glass decreased by 11 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.95% [35].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄罗斯西部港口恢复出口，关注南美地缘动态。OPEC 最新月报预计 26 | | 原油 | | 年原油供给出现过剩，油价大幅回落；OPEC+计划于 12 月继续扩产 13.7 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费淡季开启，OPEC+ | | | | 仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，重点关 | | | | 注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 油价企稳，库存端利好，液化气反弹走强。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 企稳反弹；供需方面，液化气商品量下降，下游 PDH 开工小幅下降，需 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 求端韧性较强；库存端利好，港口与厂内库存连续去库。策略：成本端油 | | | | 价反弹，但上行空间受限，买入看跌期权。 | | | | 基差修复，主力移仓换月，盘面企稳反弹。国内开工季节性回升，进口量 | | L | 空头反弹 | 集中到港，国内外供给延续宽松格局 ...

Group 1: Glass Market Analysis - The glass market has experienced several bullish trends over the past five years, with notable surges in April 2020, January 2022, November 2022, June 2023, April 2024, September 2024, and June 2025 [2] - Recent market dynamics indicate a significant increase in short positions, suggesting a challenging environment for a rapid reversal in market trends [7] - Current market conditions reflect a strong inventory pressure, leading to increased short positions in the futures market, which complicates the outlook for price recovery [6][7] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Market Insights - Lithium carbonate futures have surged to a high of 88,000 yuan, with a cumulative increase of over 20% since mid-October [8][9] - Demand for lithium carbonate is driven by a significant increase in orders from battery manufacturers, particularly in the energy storage sector, which has seen a rapid rise in consumption [9][11] - Despite high production levels, the market remains hot, with weekly production reaching historical highs, indicating a robust supply-demand balance [11][12] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - After a month of stagnation, silver prices have surged, with spot silver prices approaching $50, driven more by financial attributes than industrial demand [13][15] - The market is experiencing a "non-traditional squeeze," with significant movements in inventory across major exchanges, indicating unresolved supply-demand imbalances [14] - The silver leasing rate remains elevated, suggesting ongoing risks of a squeeze, with market participants awaiting developments in December [15] Group 4: Chinese Stock Market Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to attract over 6 trillion yuan from real estate and fixed income products, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation [17][20] - Domestic investors currently have a low allocation to stocks, with only 11% of their assets in equities, suggesting substantial room for growth in stock market participation [20] - The trend of capital migration towards stocks is supported by increasing allocations from both individual and institutional investors, with notable inflows from southbound capital [29] Group 5: Futures Market Selection Criteria - The selection of futures contracts should focus on those with high trading volumes and domestic pricing power, avoiding those with low liquidity or foreign control [21][22] - Key commodities for trading include black series products like rebar and glass, which have shown significant volatility and trend continuation potential [25][39] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of identifying commodities with historical price extremes or prolonged consolidation periods, as these are likely to yield significant trading opportunities [30][31]

各位朋友，我是帮主郑重，做了20年财经记者，也陪着大家在中长线投资里摸爬滚打，周五大宗商品那波动静，估计不少关注的朋友都有点懵——油价 蹭蹭往上走，黄金和铜价反倒往下掉，一涨一跌看着矛盾，其实背后全是逻辑，今天咱就像唠家常似的，把这事儿说透。 作为中长线投资者，咱面对这种波动该咋应对呢？首先别被短期消息带偏节奏，地缘政治推涨的油价，往往来得快去得也快，长期还是要看全球经济复 苏、石油供需格局这些核心因素；黄金和铜价的短期回调，也不用慌，只要长期通胀和全球制造业复苏的大逻辑没破，回调反而是捡优质标的的机会。 其次，咱要盯着自己能掌控的变量，比如国内的经济数据、行业需求变化，这些比短期的地缘消息、政策传闻靠谱多了。最后还是老规矩，别追涨杀 跌，中长线投资拼的就是耐心，跟着核心逻辑走，比天天盯着盘面波动踏实多了。 我是帮主郑重，20年财经记者生涯，见多了大宗商品的起起落落，其实不管涨还是跌，只要抓准核心逻辑，波动反而能变成机会。要是你手里有大宗商 品相关的标的，或者想了解某类品种的中长线布局思路，都可以跟我说，我帮你结合行业趋势和基本面捋捋~ 这次油价上涨，说白了就是地缘政治给闹的。乌克兰袭击了俄罗斯的重要石油港口 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that refineries have reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3005 - 3053 for the 2601 contract [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. The capacity utilization rate is 31.8792%, a 1.44 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 532,000 tons, a 4.31% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 745,000 tons, a 22.53% increase month - on - month. Demand - side: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, while the开工 rates of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes are higher. Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 576.02 yuan/ton, a 4.10% increase month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong local refineries is 799.3871 yuan/ton, a 34.46% increase month - on - month. The overall fundamentals are bearish [8]. - **Basis**: On November 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 19 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 897,000 tons, a 4.26% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 641,000 tons, a 6.42% decrease month - on - month; and the port - diluted asphalt inventory is 160,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease month - on - month. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: Considering refinery production cuts, low demand, stable inventory, and weakening crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3005 - 3053 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract prices, basis, inventory, and production data show different degrees of decline. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.11% to 3029 yuan/ton, the social inventory decreased by 4.27% to 89.7 million tons, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.32% to 53.2 million tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps in analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for refineries to make production decisions [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the supply - side shipment situation [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side inventory status [47]. - **Production Volume**: The weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply - side production situation [50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are important factors affecting asphalt production [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the supply - side production capacity of local refineries [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side production efficiency [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical data of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the inventory situation in the futures market [66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the overall inventory status [70]. - **In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the inventory management efficiency of refineries [73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the demand - side situation of related products [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [85]. - **Downstream Demand**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream demand situation [88][89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, showing the demand - side equipment utilization [93][95]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the demand - side production activity [97][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream production activity [102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, showing the overall supply - demand relationship [107].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [2] - L: Bearish rebound [2] - PP: Bearish rebound [2] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Sideways bottoming [4] - Urea: Rebound to short [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The core driver for the energy and chemical industry is the supply - demand imbalance, with some products facing supply surpluses during the off - season and others having potential demand improvements [2][10][15] - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to supply surplus and OPEC's production plans; LPG may rebound due to inventory factors; other products' trends are affected by factors such as capacity utilization, demand changes, and cost support [2][10][15] Group 3: Summaries by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: Overnight, international oil prices stabilized, with WTI up 0.26%, Brent up 0.48%, and SC down 2.43%. As of November 7, the US commercial crude inventory increased by 6.4 million barrels to 427.58 million barrels [8][9] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the off - season supply surplus and global inventory accumulation. OPEC's latest monthly report predicts an oversupply in 2026, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [10] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC expects non - OPEC regions' crude production to increase by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026. IEA predicts global oil supply growth. OPEC's November report forecasts global crude demand increments [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [445 - 460] [12] LPG - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the PG main contract closed at 4,303 yuan/ton, down 1.06% [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to crude oil. The cost is weak, limiting the upside. The supply has decreased, and the demand has mixed performance. The inventory has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4300 - 4400] [16] L - **Market Quotes**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,818 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [18][19] - **Basic Logic**: The basis has been repaired, and the monthly spread is moving towards a positive spread. The supply is loose, and the demand has weak replenishment motivation. The oil price may decline, lacking cost support [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6800 - 6950] [20] PP - **Market Quotes**: The PP2601 closed at 6,429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [23] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are weak due to cost. The inventory is high, and the demand is insufficient. The oil price may continue to fall [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - long term. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [24] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The V2601 closed at 4,586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: The futures price is at a premium, and the warehouse receipts are at a new high. The market is in a weak fundamental situation during the off - season, but the low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4500 - 4650] [28] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PXN spread is 250.3 (+11.8) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 112.0 (+5.0) dollars/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has increased production, and the demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The cost side has a loose supply - demand pattern for crude oil [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about chasing up on a single - side trade. Pay attention to expanding downstream processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of PX at [6810 - 6920] [30] PTA - **Market Quotes**: TA05 is at 4,728 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,616 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,664 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. The terminal demand has slightly improved, but the stability needs to be tracked. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on a single - side trade at low prices. Pay attention to expanding TA processing fees (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4600 - 4670] [33] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: EG05 is at 3,942 yuan/ton, EG11 at 3,848 yuan/ton, and EG01 at 4,019 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and new device production and the resumption of maintenance devices will increase supply pressure. The demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an expected inventory build - up in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3880 - 3960] [36] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Not specifically mentioned in a significant way [39] - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses the price. The supply side has increased production, and the demand is average. The cost support is weak but may be stable in the fourth quarter [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [39] Urea - **Market Quotes**: UR05 is at 1,734 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,753 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,667 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The inventory is high, and the export has maintained a high growth rate. There are upside and downside limits [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious about the risk of the price falling after rising. Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the price range of UR at [1630 - 1655] [44] Natural Gas - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the NG main contract closed at 4.744 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.42% [46] - **Basic Logic**: The demand increases during the heating season as the temperature drops. The cost - profit situation shows an increase in domestic LNG retail profit. The supply and demand and inventory have certain characteristics [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upside. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.511 - 4.688] [48] Asphalt - **Market Quotes**: On November 13, the BU main contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [51] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly driven by crude oil. The cost support weakens as the oil price falls. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has decreased [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The technology - growth sector remains the market's main line, and the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. - In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction [9]. - For various metals and commodities, the strategies vary according to supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. For example, for copper, the supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for prices; for aluminum, supply disruptions and improved export expectations may push prices higher [13][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: The chairman of the CSRC visited French and Brazilian financial regulatory authorities; in October, M2, M1, and M0 had different year - on - year growth rates; the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.5%; SMIC's Q3 net profit increased year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors have been rotating rapidly. The technology - growth sector is still the main line, and the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes; in October, financial data such as M2, M1, and M0 had different performances; the US failed to release the October CPI report; the central bank conducted 1900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter, but it is necessary to pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the increasing allocation power [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures prices rose; COMEX gold and silver prices were reported; the US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index were reported; Fed officials' overall stance was hawkish, but the monetary policy was expected to be further relaxed; after the retirement of the Atlanta Fed chairman, the Fed may show a "dovish tendency" [8][9]. - **Strategy**: In the early stage of the Fed's easing cycle, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, as the gold - silver ratio still has room for downward correction. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are provided [9]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: The domestic equity market strengthened, and the US October CPI data was not released as scheduled. Copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and other inventory data changed [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term risk preference is under pressure, but the supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating range for Shanghai copper futures is provided [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, remaining at a relatively high level. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased [14]. - **Strategy**: Supply concerns caused by overseas aluminum plant shutdowns or production cuts, low domestic inventory, and expected easing of global trade tensions and Fed monetary policy may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME aluminum futures are provided [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc 3S also rose. Domestic and LME zinc inventory data and other market indicators were reported [16]. - **Strategy**: Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, zinc smelting profit was under pressure, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation slowed down. Shanghai zinc is expected to be relatively strong in the short term, but the upside space is limited [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead 3S rose. Domestic and LME lead inventory data and other market indicators were reported [17]. - **Strategy**: The profit of primary and secondary lead smelting is good, but raw material shortages limit lead ingot output. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has bottomed out and rebounded, and LME lead has been continuously destocking. Shanghai lead is expected to be relatively strong in the short term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Spot market premiums were stable, and nickel ore prices were stable, while nickel iron prices accelerated their decline [18]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. If nickel prices fall enough or risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai and LME nickel futures are provided [18]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin futures prices rose. The supply of tin was affected by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar, and the demand in emerging fields provided support [19][20]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to be relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin futures are provided [21]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures price also rose. Domestic production increased slightly, and inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy**: The rise of lithium - battery stocks on Thursday had a strong impact on the futures market sentiment. The supply growth rate slowed down this week, and the inventory days continued to hit a new low. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December and the change in the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is provided [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the unilateral trading volume decreased. The basis, overseas prices, and futures inventory data were reported [24]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are gradually recovering after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is provided [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. The inventory decreased, and the supply was still under pressure [26]. - **Strategy**: The stainless - steel market continues to show a weak and oscillating trend, mainly affected by over - supply and weak demand. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [26]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rose, and the weighted contract position decreased. The inventory of domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong price support, while the demand is relatively average. The short - term price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had different changes, and the spot prices were stable. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [30]. - **Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed up slightly yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and oscillating trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. In the short term, prices are expected to continue the weak and oscillating trend, but demand may improve in the future [31]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. The Ximangduo iron ore project was officially put into operation, but the output increase is expected to be limited this year [32]. - **Strategy**: The supply of iron ore decreased, and the demand increased marginally. The high inventory still suppresses prices. In the short term, ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillating range [33]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass futures price rose, and the inventory increased slightly. The soda - ash futures price rose, and the inventory decreased slightly [34][36]. - **Strategy**: The glass market has limited positive factors, and prices are expected to decline. The soda - ash industry has high supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon futures price rose slightly. The prices are in an oscillating range [38]. - **Strategy**: In November, the pricing of the black sector has returned to fundamentals. The iron - water output has continued to decline, and steel demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on rebounds. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and the operability of ferrosilicon is relatively low [39][40][41]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell, and the polysilicon futures price rose. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [42][44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to the authenticity of relevant news and risk control [43][46]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The expiration of November warehouse receipts led to positive market expectations. The start - up rate of tire factories was neutral, and inventory data were reported [48][49]. - **Strategy**: Currently, a neutral approach is recommended, with short - term trading and quick entry and exit. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [51]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude - oil futures price fell, and the prices of related refined - oil futures also fell. Singapore's oil - product inventory data were reported [52]. - **Strategy**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [53]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price was stable, and the basis and spread data were reported [54]. - **Strategy**: High port inventory continues to suppress prices. The supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price had different changes, and the basis and spread data were reported [55]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to positive news. The domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. The price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [56]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene had different changes, and the supply - demand and inventory data were reported [57]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the port inventory is being destocked. The price of styrene may stop falling periodically [58]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [59]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of PVC are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [60]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene - glycol futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [61]. - **Strategy**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of PTA rising driven by PXN in the medium term [64]. 3.4.9 Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [65][66]. - **Strategy**: The PX load remains high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly in November. It is expected to mainly follow the trend of crude oil, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [67]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [68]. - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The supply is limited, and the demand may improve seasonally [69]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP futures price rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory data were reported [70]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand has rebounded seasonally. The price is expected to be supported after the supply - surplus pattern changes in the first quarter of next year [71][72]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category 3.5.1 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price continued to fall, and the demand was weak, but farmers' resistance to low - price sales was increasing [74]. - **Strategy**: In the future, the supply of live pigs is expected to be excessive, and the main strategy is to short on rallies. Currently, an inverse spread strategy is recommended, followed by shorting after rallies [75]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was generally stable with a slight decline, and the supply was sufficient while the demand was average [76]. - **Strategy**: The inventory of eggs is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [77]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean inventory was at a high level. The soybean meal sales and pick - up were good [78]. - **Strategy**: The import cost of soybean meal is expected to oscillate. In the short term, soybean meal prices may follow the import cost, and in the medium term, it is recommended to short on rallies [80]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The import of Indian palm oil and other oils decreased. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend [81]. - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to oscillate. If there are signals of production decline, a long - position strategy can be adopted [82]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease [83][85]. - **Strategy**: The import control of syrup and premixed powder has driven the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is still weak. It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [86]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to oscillate, and the spot price fell. The downstream demand was weak, and the开机率 of spinning mills decreased [87]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the cotton price is expected to continue to oscillate due to weak demand and high supply [88].