Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main theme. The medium - to long - term approach for the index is to go long on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is currently in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the linkage between stocks and bonds and the impact of liquidity [6]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. - Most metal prices are expected to oscillate. Some metals have strong price support due to supply - demand relationships, while others may face downward pressure due to factors such as over - supply or weak demand [12][14][16]. - The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains. Steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short term, but there may be a marginal inflection point in demand later [33]. - The prices of most energy - chemical products are expected to oscillate. Some products may have short - term upward or downward trends due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost fluctuations [54][55]. - The prices of most agricultural products are expected to oscillate. Some products may face downward pressure due to over - supply, while others may have short - term upward potential due to factors such as production reduction expectations [73][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: There are over 150 humanoid robot enterprises in China, and the NDRC encourages the development of new energy storage and hydrogen energy technologies. OPEC+ may reach an agreement on a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. JPMorgan Chase has upgraded the rating of A - shares to "overweight" [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After recent declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. The long - term approach is to go long on dips, with technology growth as the main theme [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had positive changes. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The NDRC has arranged special treasury bonds for "two major" construction projects. The central bank conducted a net injection of 564 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In October, the economic data on both the supply and demand sides were weak. The growth rate of social financing may remain weak at the end of the year. The central bank is maintaining an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to oscillate in the fourth quarter [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose, and COMEX gold and silver prices also had certain trends. The market is mainly concerned about the Fed's subsequent personnel changes and monetary policy expectations. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is 86.9% [7][8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has rebounded. It is recommended to go long on precious metals on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and the RMB has slightly depreciated. LME copper prices have declined, and domestic copper inventories have decreased. The import loss of domestic copper has widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The probability of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December is high, but there are still uncertainties in the geopolitical situation. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 86,200 - 87,800 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have corrected. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories have decreased, and LME aluminum inventories have also decreased [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global visible inventory of aluminum ingots is relatively low, and the price support is strong. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. The price may strengthen after adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,400 - 21,700 yuan/ton [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME zinc inventories have certain trends, and the import loss of zinc ingots is relatively large [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore imports declined significantly in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. However, it is expected to loosen marginally after stockpiling. The zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle, and zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME lead inventories have certain trends, and the import profit of lead ingots is relatively small [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the export of lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to decline at a slower pace in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron have certain trends, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is expected to increase [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure, and prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract rose. The production of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at a high level, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for tin prices. The inventory has increased slightly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance. It is expected that tin prices will oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 280,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declined. The price of the LC2605 contract also declined [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic production has declined, and inventory has decreased. There are differences in the market's expectations for next year's demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 91,200 - 99,600 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose slightly. The price of overseas ore has declined, and the inventory of futures has decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of overseas ore is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting industry has an over - supply situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract declined. The prices of spot and raw materials remained stable, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot market price is stable, and the sales of 300 - series stainless steel are relatively good. However, the consumption in related fields is weak, and the inventory removal speed is slow. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory of domestic aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the inventory in factories increased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The prices of spot rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously removed. The production of hot - rolled coils has increased, and the inventory removal is slow. The export of steel to South Korea may be affected. Steel prices are expected to continue weak oscillations in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The price of spot iron ore and the basis have certain trends [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas shipment of iron ore has decreased, and the demand from steel mills has weakened. The inventory of iron ore is relatively high, and the price is expected to oscillate. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline in the short term [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda - ash main contract rose slightly, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cold - repair expectation of glass production lines in December is increasing, and the supply is expected to shrink. The demand for glass is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply of soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to remain weak [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon futures declined. The prices of spot manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon also decreased [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The risk appetite of the market has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have declined. However, the expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has rebounded. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound [40][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial - silicon futures rose slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price of polysilicon futures declined, and the inventory increased [43][45]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of industrial silicon is declining, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate. The production of polysilicon is declining, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate in a wide range [44][46]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded. The flood in Thailand's rubber - producing areas is a positive factor, but the subsequent rainfall has decreased. The inventory of exchange - traded RU is low [48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take a neutral approach and conduct short - term trading. It is recommended to partially build a hedging position by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures rose. The US EIA data shows that the inventory of crude oil and some refined oils has increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the supply of OPEC has not increased significantly. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price of methanol futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot methanol also increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iran's plant shutdown have been realized, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to oscillate after the positive factors are realized [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The price of urea futures rose, and the basis decreased. The price of spot urea also increased [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of urea is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is relatively high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips at low prices [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure - benzene futures remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The price of styrene futures declined, and the basis decreased [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, and the BZN spread has room for upward repair. The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures rose, and the basis decreased. The cost of PVC remained stable, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of ethylene glycol remained unchanged [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline in December, and the inventory accumulation may slow down. It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium term [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures declined, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PTA decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PTA is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to remain high in the short term. The processing fee of PTA has limited upward space, and there is a risk of PXN valuation correction [64]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of PX futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PX increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load of PX remains high, and the inventory is difficult to continuously remove. The valuation of PX is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of valuation correction [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE futures declined, and the basis increased. The inventory of PE decreased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The valuation of PE has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. It is recommended to short the LL - 1 - 5 spread on rallies [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP futures rose, and the basis decreased. The inventory of PP decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is seasonally oscillating. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported after the supply - over - supply situation changes in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The market demand is increasing slowly, and the supply of hogs is abundant [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The theoretical supply of hogs is still large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - term contracts or conduct reverse - spread trading [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was stable with some increases. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg - price futures have rebounded in advance, but the spot price has not followed up as expected. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to conduct reverse - spread trading in the near - term and far - term contracts, and short on rallies in the medium term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean market was closed due to a holiday. The domestic soybean - meal price was stable, and the inventory increased [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global supply of soybeans has decreased, and the domestic soybean inventory is at a high level. The price of soybean meal is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and the production has increased. The domestic oil price rebounded [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The over - supply of palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [79][80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated strongly. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price falls [82]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated narrowly. The downstream spinning - mill operating rate decreased, and the global cotton production increased [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the market has digested the negative impact of high yields. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [84].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes - Plastic 2601: Opened at 6707 yuan/ton, closed at 6699 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 270,000 lots and an open interest of 495,726 lots, a decrease of 1,873 lots [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 6768 yuan/ton, closed at 6763 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.46%), with an open interest of 232,562 lots, an increase of 10,864 lots [5] - Plastic 2609: Opened at 6809 yuan/ton, closed at 6804 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.41%), with an open interest of 4,234 lots, an increase of 376 lots [5] - PP2601: Opened at 6261 yuan/ton, closed at 6295 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with an open interest of 557,253 lots, a decrease of 29,319 lots [5] - PP2605: Opened at 6360 yuan/ton, closed at 6393 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.11%), with an open interest of 263,547 lots, an increase of 19,590 lots [5] - PP2609: Opened at 6431 yuan/ton, closed at 6435 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.29%), with an open interest of 12,254 lots, an increase of 661 lots [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Prices continued to be weak. LLDPE prices in North China were 6720 - 7000 yuan/ton, in East China were 6850 - 7300 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6980 - 7350 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market: The mainstream price in Shandong was 6050 - 6050 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The cost of polypropylene was under pressure, and the demand support for propylene weakened [7] - PP Market: Prices were stable to weak, with a decline of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6130 - 6300 yuan/ton, in East China was 6220 - 6400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [7] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Linear futures opened lower and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders sold at discounted prices, and most spot prices declined slightly. Downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines [6] - The load of previously restarted plants increased slowly, and the weekly supply decreased. There were no new maintenance plans this week, so the weekly supply might increase month-on-month [6] - The peak demand season was ending, follow-up orders were slow, and most factories had already stocked up. Downstream sentiment was bearish, and purchasing enthusiasm weakened [6] - Crude oil prices fell again due to the easing of geopolitical risks. There was pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, which put pressure on prices. The cost support for plastics and chemicals was hard to find, and combined with the weak fundamentals, the price center declined weakly [6] Industry News - On November 27, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 650,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons (-0.76%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 605,000 tons [7] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate [9][12][16]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The price of ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate at the bottom due to weak supply and demand and cost support. The supply side has started a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline in December. The electricity price was stable and slightly stronger in November, which increased the cost [2][73][74]. - The price of silicomanganese is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The supply side has entered a production cut trend, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally in December. The manganese ore port inventory is lower than last year, and the price is strong, providing strong support for the cost [2][74]. Group 2: Strategy Recommendation - For unilateral trading, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom under the combined effect of weak supply and demand and cost support [3]. - For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For options, it is recommended to sell straddle option combinations on rallies [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In November, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated downward due to the pressure on steel profits, increased steel mill maintenance, and high enterprise inventories [7]. 2. Supply and Demand - Supply: The production of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is expected to decline slightly in November. On November 21, the national 136 - independent ferrosilicon enterprise sample开工率 was 33.81%, a 1.03% decrease from the previous period; the national 187 - independent silicomanganese enterprise sample开工率 was 39.13%, a 0.465% decrease from the previous period [23]. - Demand: The molten iron production showed a narrow - range fluctuation in November. It is expected to rebound in the short term but decline in December [24]. 3. Inventory - Alloy factory inventory: In November, the alloy factory inventory fluctuated upward, especially the silicomanganese inventory increased significantly. On November 21, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 7.31 tons, a decrease of 0.83 tons from the previous period; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.3 tons, an increase of 1.05 tons from the previous period [38]. - Downstream inventory: Steel mills may have phased replenishment demand in December, but the replenishment intensity is expected to be limited [38]. 4. Cost - The port steam coal price was strong in November, and the electricity price in the ferrosilicon production area was stable and slightly stronger, increasing the alloy production cost [54]. - The manganese ore port inventory is about 200 tons lower than last year. The price is strong, with the Tianjin Gangao block rising 0.8 yuan/ton degree and the Gabon block rising 1.7 yuan/ton degree in November, providing strong support for the silicomanganese cost [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the lack of cost - side support limits the upward drive, and it may mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have eased, international oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the support at the cost end of propylene to decline. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of loose propylene supply and demand, there is insufficient upward drive in the fundamentals, and the market continues to fluctuate weakly. On the supply side, the PDH units of Binhuahua and Xintai Petrochemical continue to be under maintenance, and the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China is under maintenance, but the downstream supporting PP is also under maintenance, so the impact on supply is limited. On the demand side, the previously shut - down units have restarted intensively, and the overall downstream operation has increased slightly. However, considering that the downstream profit is under pressure due to the rising propylene price, the spread between PP and propylene has narrowed, and downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the demand support for propylene has weakened. The international oil price trend is weak, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China is tight, and the price of external propane has strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5820 yuan/ton (-18), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6075 yuan/ton (+55), the basis of propylene in East China is 180 yuan/ton (+58), and the basis of propylene in North China is 222 yuan/ton (+92) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of propylene is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 174 US dollars/ton (+2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 56 US dollars/ton (-2) [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 269 yuan/ton (+33) [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is - 365 yuan/ton (-15); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the operating rate of n - butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (-35); the operating rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+60); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 440 yuan/ton (-39); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is - 464 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 45040 tons (-2150) [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - **Fundamentals**: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - **Market Performance**: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - **Fundamentals**: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - **Fundamentals**: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - **Basic Logic**: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - **Fundamentals**: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In November, the supply and demand of the industrial silicon market will both decline, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still expected to be inventory accumulation pressure. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - It is expected to maintain a high - level range oscillation. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation expected in each link, but strong spot support. The backwardation market structure will remain. For trading strategies, try to go long at around 50,000 for futures; hold or take profit on sell put options for options, and consider buying straddles if volatility decreases [2]. Tin - With strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained. Hold previous long positions and pay attention to macro - end changes and the recovery of supply in Myanmar [4]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. Whether the market can rebound depends on the actual production cut scale of existing enterprises and the inventory inflection point. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton. Focus on overseas monetary policy trends and domestic inventory destocking rhythm [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure has gradually eased, and the demand side has shown a structural improvement. However, the terminal demand has remained stable, and there is limited upward momentum. The main reference range is 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices. Pay attention to macro - drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The macro - situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the market may oscillate and repair. In the medium term, the abundant supply will still restrict the upward space of prices. The main reference range is 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the improvement of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11]. Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, cost support is weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. There is still pressure on the supply - side steel mill production schedule and social inventory, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate, with the main operating range of 12,300 - 12,700 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The market is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with the main reference range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan. Although the market has a bullish sentiment, there is limited substantial new driving force [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon remained stable on November 25, 2025, while the basis of some varieties decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 540 yuan, with a decline of 3.57% [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, while the price of battery cells decreased. The main contract of polysilicon futures closed at 54,730 yuan/ton, up 1,415 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The spot prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.58%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 18.32 US dollars/ton, with a rise of 19.15% [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.37%. The price of alumina in various regions remained stable [6]. - **Zinc**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 20 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.09%. The import loss was - 4,312 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.69 yuan/ton [7]. - **Copper**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 375 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.43%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 378.62 yuan/ton, with a rise of 13.42% [8]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, with a rise of 0.68%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable on November 26, 2025. The refined - scrap price difference of some regions changed, such as the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum increased by 80 yuan/ton, with a rise of 4.57% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained stable at 12,700 yuan/ton on November 26, 2025, while the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton, with a rise of 0.79% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. decreased slightly on November 26, 2025. For example, the price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.11% [15]. Monthly Spreads - Different contracts of various metals showed different changes in monthly spreads. For example, in industrial silicon, the spreads of contracts such as 2512 - 2601 remained unchanged; in tin, the spread of 2601 - 2602 increased by 450 yuan/ton, with a rise of 107.14% [1][4]. Fundamental Data Production - **Industrial Silicon**: In November, the national industrial silicon production is expected to decline to around 400,000 tons. In October, the national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The production in Xinjiang increased by 15.94%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly production in October was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%. The weekly production was 27,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12% [2]. - **Tin**: In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09%. The average operating rate was 66.81%, a month - on - month increase of 53.23% [4]. - **Aluminum**: In October, alumina production was 778,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; electrolytic aluminum production was 374,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [6]. - **Zinc**: In October, refined zinc production was 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [7]. - **Copper**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1,091,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62% [8]. - **Nickel**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 286,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, the production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 enterprises) was 1,787,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73% [15]. Import and Export - Different metals have different import and export trends. For example, the import of refined tin in October decreased by 58.55% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.33% month - on - month; the import of electrolytic aluminum in October increased by 0.61% month - on - month, and the export decreased by 15.18% month - on - month [4][6]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of different industries also vary. For example, the national operating rate of industrial silicon in October was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98%; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [1][6]. Inventory Changes - Different metals have different inventory trends. For example, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.37% week - on - week; the SHEF inventory of tin decreased by 0.46% week - on - week [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PP**: Bearish continuation [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PX/PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **MEG (Ethylene Glycol)**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Sideways at the bottom, consider long positions on dips for 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Natural Gas**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [5] - **Glass**: Bearish rebound [5] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish consolidation [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a weakening oil price. Supply exceeds demand in the off - season, and there is pressure on the upside. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [1][8] - **LPG**: The decline in the cost - end oil price weakens the LPG trend. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. Consider light - position short - selling [1] - **L**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PP**: Cost support weakens, and the bearish trend continues. Inventory is high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term. Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short [1] - **PVC**: The basis strengthens, and the price is in a bearish consolidation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline. Industries can hedge at high prices [1] - **PX/PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. Consider long positions on dips [3] - **MEG**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Methanol**: The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions and long positions on dips for the 05 contract [3] - **Urea**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Consider short positions on rebounds [3] - **Natural Gas**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [5] - **Asphalt**: The cost - end oil price is weak, and the supply - demand balance is loose. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions [5] - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak. Consider taking profit on short positions in the short term and going short on rebounds in the long term [5] - **Soda Ash**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Consider short positions on rebounds and short the 01 alkali - glass spread [5] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with WTI down 1.51%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC up 0.40% [7] - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but supply exceeds demand, and inventory is accumulating. Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a price drop [8] - **Fundamentals**: In December, Iraq's exports will decline by 12%. OPEC forecasts demand growth in 2025 and 2026. US commercial crude inventory decreased by 342 million barrels in the week ending November 14 [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ expansion may suppress prices. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 25, the PG main contract closed at 4231 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [12] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is trending downward. Supply and demand are unfavorable, and inventory is accumulating. The basis is high, and the price is over - estimated [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and there is room for price compression. Consider partial profit - taking on short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [14] L - **Market Review**: The L01 main contract closed at 6762 yuan/ton, down 0.5% [16] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds, but supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient in the medium term [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short term and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6850] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 main contract closed at 6317 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [20] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamental situation is weak due to the decline in coking coal prices. Inventory is high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall in the medium term [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices and wait for rebounds to go short in the long term. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V01 main contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [23] - **Basic Logic**: The basis is repaired, and the short - term market returns to a weak fundamental situation. Social inventory is high, and there is limited upward drive, but low - valuation support restricts further decline [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for positive drivers. Pay attention to the range of V [4400 - 4550] [25] PTA - **Market Review**: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases due to maintenance, and demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider long positions on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA [4610 - 4675] [28] MEG - **Market Review**: The EG01 contract closed at 3901 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [29] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic device maintenance increases, and new device production may increase supply pressure. Demand is relatively good, but there is no upward drive. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3810 - 3885] [31] Methanol - **Market Review**: The main contract's position decreased slightly to 131.3 million lots, still at a high level in the past five years [34] - **Basic Logic**: The spot price stabilizes, and the basis strengthens slightly. Supply pressure is large, but demand improves marginally. Cost support is weak. The market is in a sideways bottom - grinding phase [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions at low valuations. Consider long positions on dips for the 05 contract [34] Urea - **Market Review**: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains, and demand is mixed. The export factor has been priced in. Inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR [1615 - 1645] [40] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 24, the NG main contract closed at 4.672 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.50% [43] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease, putting pressure on gas prices, but the demand side has support in the consumption season [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.344 - 4.603]. The demand side has support, but the supply side is sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 25, the BU main contract closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end oil price, which is weak. Supply is sufficient, and demand is in the off - season. There is room for price compression [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [3000 - 3100] [48] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG01 main contract closed at 1014 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [50] - **Basic Logic**: Cold - repair expectations provide support, but supply reduction is difficult, and demand is weak [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and go short on rebounds in the long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [990 - 1040] [52] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA01 main contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [54] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand both decline, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Inventory is high [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for rebounds to go short in the long term and short the 01 alkali - glass spread. Pay attention to the range of SA [1170 - 1220] [56]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | 环比持平 。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | 环比减少4 ， | 76% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多 . | | | | | | | | 晶硅库存为27 1万吨 . | 处于低位 ， ， | | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 | 组 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌地缘出现缓和，油价走势偏弱。短期扰动：消息泽连斯基同意与美国 | | 原油 | | 合作制定和平计划，并将在近期与特朗普会谈；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | | | 原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及 | | | | 南美地缘进展。策略：空单部分止盈。 | | | | 下游开工率下降，库存累库，液化气承压。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需方面，下游化工开工率下降，商品量小幅 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下降；库存端偏利空，港口与厂内库存累库。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 化工板块超跌反弹，盘面跟随放量反弹。国内开工季节性回升，近期进口 | | L | | 资源集中到港，国内外供给充足。下游开工率连续 6 周下滑，11 月下旬后 | | | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季逐步收尾，需求支部不足。油 ...