1月6日夜盘，沪镍多合约涨停，沪镍主力合约收涨至147720元／吨，LME镍期价盘中最高涨至18785美 元／吨。 据悉，全球镍市场仍处于供应过剩格局。尽管存在印度尼西亚减产预期，但主要生产国的产能惯性及新 能源汽车电池需求增长不及预期，使得整体供给依然宽松。不锈钢领域的需求受制于房地产等行业景气 度，尚未提供强劲拉动。 库存水平高企，对价格构成持续压制。截至2025年年底，LME镍库存25.4万吨，处于多年高位。中国国 内镍社会库存也同比显著增长。截至2026年1月4日，上期所镍库存为45544吨，高于近5年同期均值。 谈及镍现货市场格局的变化，王维芒认为，市场呈现"预期紧缩"与"现实过剩"并存的复杂局面。受减产 预期和年底部分企业检修影响，现货市场出现结构性紧张，例如2025年年末金川镍现货价格升水一度大 幅拉升至年内高点。供应收紧的预期已开始影响现货定价。 戴梓兆也认为，当前镍供需仍呈小幅过剩状态，经历了2025年10—11月减产后，国内精炼镍的累库速度 放缓，但仍维持累库趋势。数据显示，截至1月5日，全球精炼镍显性库存为31.66万吨，总量处于近5年 来高位。镍铁端，受终端价格的上涨带动，成交价环比上 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals, particularly casting aluminum alloy, is experiencing a collective upward trend, with the main contract opening at 22,490.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 23,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.14% [1] - The market for casting aluminum alloy is showing a strong upward trend, supported by high aluminum prices and the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026, which has led to a slight increase in scrap aluminum prices, thereby strengthening the cost support for aluminum alloy [2] - Environmental policies and tight raw material supply are putting pressure on production costs, potentially leading to a reduction in output, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, resulting in a subdued market for spot transactions [2] Group 2 - The recycled aluminum alloy market is facing weak consumption, with prices rising but downstream die-casting enterprises struggling to accept these increases, leading to a decline in demand [3] - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remain stable, but there is an accumulation of finished product inventory, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] - The price of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish rebound [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Bullish with an upward bias [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainties in South America and the Middle East have increased, leading to a short - term rebound in oil prices. However, the overall situation of crude oil supply surplus remains unchanged, and prices are under long - term pressure. Other energy - related products are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, showing different trends [1][9]. - For chemical products, the supply - demand relationship, cost support, and device operation status are the main factors affecting their prices. Some products are expected to have short - term rebounds, while others are in a weak or bearish trend [1][2]. Summaries According to Different Categories Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined. WTI dropped 0.22%, Brent fell 0.26%, and SC rose 0.69%. The latest prices of WTI, Brent, and SC are $57.95/barrel, $61.33/barrel, and 438.6 yuan/barrel respectively [7][8]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have led to a short - term rise in oil prices, but the core issue of supply surplus in the off - season remains. Global crude oil inventories are increasing, and US crude oil and refined product inventories are also accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of SC [425 - 435] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On January 5th, the PG main contract closed at 4159 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China increased [14]. - Fundamental Logic: Saudi Arabia raised the latest CP contract price, which short - term boosted the gas price. In the long - term, it is anchored to oil prices and is under pressure. Supply has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4150 - 4250] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L05 contract price decreased slightly. The L05 basis was - 69 yuan/ton, and the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [18][19]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the cost, but weak expectations limit the rebound height. Supply is sufficient, and there is pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20]. - Attention Range: L [6450 - 6600] [20] PP - Market Performance: The PP05 contract price decreased slightly. The PP05 basis was - 77 yuan/ton, and the PP59 spread was - 25 yuan/ton [22][23]. - Fundamental Logic: It will fluctuate strongly in the short - term following the oil price. The supply - demand relationship is weak, and the short - term supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices [24]. - Attention Range: PP [6300 - 6450] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V05 contract price decreased slightly. The V05 basis was - 284 yuan/ton, the V59 spread was - 131 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 108477 [26][27]. - Fundamental Logic: Strong expectations dominate the short - term trend. The fundamental situation is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. Cost support has strengthened, increasing the expectation of future device maintenance. Pay attention to inventory changes [28]. - Attention Range: V [4800 - 4950] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract price decreased. The TA05 basis was - 13 yuan/ton, and the TA5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan/ton [29]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively tight in the short - term. Some devices have been restored, but the overall maintenance intensity is high. Downstream demand is good but expected to weaken. Pay attention to the negative feedback from the demand side [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the 05 contract. TA05 [5070 - 5150] [31] MEG - Market Performance: The EG05 contract price decreased. The EG05 basis was - 125 yuan/ton, and the EG5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan/ton [32]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is low, and there is a lack of upward momentum. The domestic device load has increased, demand is expected to weaken, and port inventories are rising. It will fluctuate following the cost in the short - term [33]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on the rebound. EG05 [3720 - 3800] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract decreased in position and increased in price. The East China basis and the 1 - 5 spread strengthened [37]. - Fundamental Logic: Valuation is not low. Supply pressure still exists, and demand has weakened slightly. The supply - demand relationship is slightly loose, but the downside space is limited [37]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on the callback for the methanol 05 contract. MA05 [2220 - 2280] [39] Urea - Market Performance: The urea main contract price was 1749 yuan/ton, and the Shandong small - particle basis was - 39 yuan/ton [43]. - Fundamental Logic: The supply pressure is expected to increase in mid - January. Demand has weakened recently, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. However, there is an arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets and the expectation of spring fertilizer use [42][43]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the callback for the 05 contract. UR05 [1730 - 1760] [44] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On January 5th, the NG main contract closed at $3.618/MMBtu, a decrease of 1.84% [46]. - Fundamental Logic: The demand side is in the consumption peak season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the demand support for gas prices. The supply side is relatively abundant, and gas prices are under pressure [47]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the range of NG [3.250 - 3.680] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 31st, the BU main contract closed at 3022 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed [50]. - Fundamental Logic: Geopolitical factors in South America have led to an expected shortage of raw materials. Supply has decreased in January 2026, and demand has increased slightly. Inventory has increased [51]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short positions should be cautious about risks. Pay attention to the range of BU [3100 - 3250] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG05 contract price decreased slightly. The FG05 basis was - 81 yuan/ton, the FG59 spread was - 102 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 1676 [54][55]. - Fundamental Logic: Factory inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. Short - term cold - repair expectations support the price, but long - term weak demand limits the rebound height [56]. - Attention Range: FG [1070 - 1120] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA05 contract price decreased. The SA05 basis was - 37 yuan/ton, the SA59 spread was - 72 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 4776 [58][59]. - Fundamental Logic: The continuous decline of float glass daily melting has led to insufficient demand support for heavy soda ash. Supply is expected to be loose in the long - term [60]. - Attention Range: SA [1150 - 1200] [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Methanol - Short - term cost support (stable coal prices) and de - stocking expectations drive the market to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. The port inventory is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in the first quarter, while the inland market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand [3]. Polyolefins - For PP, the valuation of marginal devices is still low, but there are few planned overhauls. If there are no overhauls from January to March, the pressure on the 05 contract will be relatively large. For PE, the supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving. Overall, the supply increases and the demand decreases in January, and the overall pressure is still relatively large [6]. Urea - The short - term high - supply pattern is difficult to change. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material procurement intention is suppressed. The inventory continues to be destocked, which supports the price. The market is boosted by export expectations and geopolitical impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have weak short - term drivers and continue to oscillate at a low level. Styrene is supported in the short term but has limited rebound space due to downstream resistance and cost factors [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to show a trend of weakening steadily. PVC prices are expected to oscillate and weaken due to the excess supply - demand pattern [10]. Natural Rubber - There is a long - short game in the short - term natural rubber market, and it is recommended to hold the previous short positions [11]. LPG No clear overall view provided in the document about the future trend of LPG. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is in a situation of weak downstream demand and increasing inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory inflection point. Glass has different situations in different regions, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening demand [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA are expected to have a weaker supply - demand situation in the first quarter. MEG has a large inventory accumulation expectation. Short - fiber has a weak supply - demand pattern. Bottle - chip supply and demand both decrease, and it follows the cost side [17]. Crude Oil - Short - term geopolitical factors support oil prices, but the medium - and long - term supply surplus pressure suppresses oil prices. It is expected that Brent oil prices will fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 decreased slightly, while the MA59 spread increased significantly. The prices of some spot varieties increased, and regional spreads decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [2]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased slightly, and some downstream operating rates increased, while the MTO device operating rate decreased [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased slightly. Some spot prices increased, and the base differentials changed [6]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, while the PE social inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, and the powder operating rate increased [6]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, and the spot price increased. The spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory and port inventories decreased, and the production enterprise order days decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production increased slightly, and the demand was in the off - season [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some related products changed [9]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed, and the domestic pure benzene supply increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries changed, and the overall supply and demand pattern of pure benzene was weak [9]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot decreased to varying degrees, and the export profits changed [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand of downstream industries was weak [10]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased [10]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some spot varieties increased, and the base differential and inter - month spreads changed [11]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased, and the warehouse - out rate and warehouse - in rate changed [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in some regions changed, and the tire operating rates decreased [11]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2602, PG2603, and PG2604 increased slightly, and the spreads between contracts and the base differential changed [14]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased slightly, and the port storage capacity ratio decreased [14]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot changed slightly, and the base differential increased [16]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory and soda ash factory inventories increased, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate and weekly output decreased, and the downstream demand for soda ash was weak [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the prices of some upstream raw materials changed [17]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of some polyester products decreased slightly, and the cash flows and processing fees changed [17]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG changed, and the overall polyester industry operating rate situation was complex [17]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil increased, and the spreads between contracts and different varieties changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and the spreads between contracts changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of some refined oil products changed [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is continuously affected by geopolitical factors, with oil prices remaining volatile. The overall chemical sector is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern. - Different products in the energy and chemical industry show varying trends. For example, asphalt prices have surged due to political unrest in Venezuela, while low - sulfur fuel oil prices have declined. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain volatile. - **Main Logic**: Global land - based crude oil inventories have declined in the past 4 weeks, but floating storage inventories have risen. US refined product inventories are increasing. OPEC+ has a stable production outlook for Q1, and geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the key factors affecting supply expectations. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility is expected due to fluctuating geopolitical premiums. [8] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Political unrest in Venezuela has driven up asphalt futures prices. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. Political instability in Venezuela has led to expectations of raw material shortages, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued. [8][9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ suspending production increases, energy crisis expectations in Iraq, and tight heavy - oil supply are positive factors. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by other energy sources are long - term negative factors. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward. - **Main Logic**: Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with low valuation, it will fluctuate with crude oil. [11] PX - **Viewpoint**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and prices are consolidating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, but the restart of PTA devices in January has increased the direct demand for PX. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range in the short term, and the profit margin can be maintained. [12] PTA - **Viewpoint**: TA processing fees are at the upper end of the range, and the room for continuous increase is limited. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are weak, cost support is insufficient, and the supply of PTA is increasing while downstream polyester load may decline. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate with costs, and processing fees are under pressure. [13][14] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of inventory pressure is still being realized, with differences in expectations, and trading is mainly based on reality. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices are slightly supported by downstream exports and strong US - dollar prices, but the fundamentals are still weak. There is room for improvement in the far - month supply - demand situation. - **Outlook**: Inventory and demand restrict the upside, and the external market provides short - term support. [15][16] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, but new export deals and a positive commodity atmosphere are beneficial. However, it is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: There is an obvious upside limit, and exports can stimulate short - term rebounds. [17][18] Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The implementation of polyester production cuts is gradually taking effect, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average. - **Main Logic**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and although overseas device maintenance may reduce imports, the inventory accumulation pattern cannot be reversed. - **Outlook**: Prices will remain in a range in the short term, and the upside is limited due to long - term inventory pressure. [19][21] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has increased during the holiday. - **Outlook**: Prices are oscillating. [22] Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: There are more device overhauls in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: Prices are adjusting downward during the day and rebounding at night. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and overhauls in January may improve the situation. - **Outlook**: Prices will follow raw materials, and processing fees have stronger support below. [24] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Frequent overseas disturbances, methanol is oscillating strongly. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but overseas disturbances such as the situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect imports. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias. [27][28] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Post - holiday transactions are active, and urea is stable with an upward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is stable, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, commercial storage, and industrial sectors has increased. - **Outlook**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand may be boosted in the short term, but the upside is limited. [28][29] LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance support is limited, and LLDPE should be viewed as oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, the fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly improved, but demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [31] PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, downstream demand is in the off - season, and short - term maintenance has increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [32] PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations are positive, but downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [33] PVC - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device shutdowns have led to a strong rebound in PVC. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors may boost sentiment, and overseas device shutdowns and domestic production cost changes are positive for supply. - **Outlook**: Supported by supply improvement expectations, PVC will run strongly. [34] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. Caustic soda should be viewed with caution and a downward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in excess, demand is weak, and costs are decreasing. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. The downward space is limited. [35] 3.2品种数据监测 3.2.1能化⽇度指标监测 - **跨期价差**: Different varieties show different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.02, while that of Dubai is - 0.11 with a change of - 0.19. [37] - **基差和仓单**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 63 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipts are 24920. [38] - **跨品种价差**: Spreads between different varieties have different trends. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 423 with a change of - 43. [40] 3.2.2化⼯基差及价差监测 No specific data summaries are provided in the text for this part.

宏观层面，美国特朗普政府于周六单方面对委内瑞拉发起军事行动，并抓捕该国总统马杜罗及其夫人， 此举加剧了地缘政治紧张局势。受此影响，贵金属强势上涨，并带动有色金属整体走高。节日期间，伦 铝强势突破3000美元/吨关口，节后沪铝高开补涨，铝合金价格亦随沪铝攀升，创上市以来新高。 基本面方面，废铝价格高企且供应趋紧，再生铝行业持续亏损，成本支撑效应显著。需求端，合金厂开 工率自高位回落，随着汽车行业进入淡季，合金需求预期走弱。不过，现货市场成交活跃度提升，铝合 金价格高位大涨，持货商惜售情绪浓厚，逢高出货意愿增强；下游在看涨预期推动下，刚需采购积极， 部分出现追涨补货行为，当日成交量显著增加。 上海期货价格走势：今日铸造铝合金主力月2603合约高开暴走，截止当日15：00收盘，铸造铝主力合约 报22520元，涨895元，涨幅4.14%，全天成交量11820手增加4516手；持仓量18299手增加1515手。 据长江有色金属网数据统计，1月5日长江现货数据显示，铸造铝合金锭(A356.2)报价24700-25100元/ 吨，均价报24900元/吨，涨900元；铸造铝合金锭(A380）报价24200-24400元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to remain in a high - level volatile market supported by cost, and it is recommended to hold long spreads. PTA is also in a high - level volatile market driven by cost, and long spreads operation should be maintained. MEG has limited upside space and faces medium - term pressure, and short spreads operation is advised [1][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7260, 5110, 3803, 6514, and 432.2 respectively, with daily changes of - 56, - 34, - 44, - 50, and - 3.9, and daily change rates of - 0.77%, - 0.66%, - 1.14%, - 0.76%, and - 0.89% [2] - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 894 dollars/ton, 5097 yuan/ton, 3678, 530.12 dollars/ton, and 60.98 dollars/barrel respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread were 363.88, 361.63, 120.64, 43.68, and - 4.34 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - **PX**: As of January 4, the domestic PX plant operating rate was 90.4%, and the Asian PX operating rate was 80.9% [2] - **PTA**: The PTA load was 78.1%. Dushan Energy's 250 - million - ton plant restarted, Zhongtai's 120 - million - ton plant restarted at a low load, and Weilian Chemical's 250 - million - ton plant increased its load [3] - **MEG**: A 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Henan stopped for catalyst replacement at the end of December 2025, with an expected duration of about 2 weeks. A 615,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Kuwait plans to stop for maintenance on January 9, with an expected maintenance duration of about one month. As of January 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 73.73% (a 1.58% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) to ethylene glycol was 75.86% (a 0.51% decrease from the previous period) [3][4] - **Polyester**: The operating load of large domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn at around 75% (starting from January 2026, the production capacity base of polyester industrial yarn is 3.28 million tons). As of Sunday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 90.8%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of less than 40% as of 4 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 57% as of 3 pm [4] 3.3 Terminal Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang - **Operating Rates**: The comprehensive operating rate of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 74%, the comprehensive operating rate of looms dropped to 59%, and the comprehensive operating rate of dyeing remained at 69% [5] - **Raw Material Stockpiling**: Terminal factories mainly consumed raw material stocks this week, and raw material purchases were mainly for new orders. The raw material purchase volumes of terminal factories varied widely. Currently, the stockpiles of production factories are concentrated between 1 - 3 weeks, and some with more stockpiles still have 1 - 2 months' worth [5] - **Orders and Prices**: New orders in the weaving sector remained weak, with some foreign trade and spring - summer new orders being slightly followed up. The inventory of grey fabric continued to accumulate. The prices of conventional grey fabric varieties declined locally, and the nominal cash - flow losses of grey fabric widened [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX and PTA is 1, while that of MEG is 0 [6] 3.5 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: With strong cost support, long spreads should be held. After the US air - strike on Venezuela on January 3, oil prices are expected to rise in the short - term, supporting the valuation of PX. The 1 - million - ton plant of Fujia Dahua restarted, and India's GAIL purchased Middle - East PX supplies for its planned start - up in March - April. The domestic PX operating rate is 88%. For domestic PTA plants, the processing fee of the 05 contract on the futures market has risen to over 300 yuan/ton. The 2.5 - million - ton plant of Xin Fengming Phase 1 and the 1.2 - million - ton plant of Zhongtai Chemical restarted, and the operating rate is expected to recover. The overall operating rate is expected to remain at around 78% [6] - **PTA**: In a cost - driven market, the bullish pattern is difficult to disprove for now, and long spreads operation should be maintained. The situation of PTA domestic plants is the same as that mentioned for PX. The profits of polyester filament factories have been declining, leading to a decrease in operating enthusiasm, but the current decline in polyester operating rate is not significant. Coupled with the large - scale export of PTA to India in December, the PTA segment is still in a state of continuous inventory reduction [6][7] - **MEG**: Although it is affected by the rising valuation of oil and coal prices in the short - term, its medium - term trend remains weak, and short spreads operation is recommended. The domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level of 73.73%. The 200,000 - ton plant of Guangxi Huayi restarted. Overseas, plants in Taiwan, China (720,000 tons), Kuwait (530,000 tons), and Iran (400,000 tons) are under maintenance. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline marginally in January - February. The operating rate of polyester plants is 90.8%, and the rigid demand for ethylene glycol is decreasing. The polyester load is expected to drop from 89% in January to 84% in February [8]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 投资策略建议：TA605成本支撑较强，偏强运行为主 本周国内PTA期货市场高位回调运行，截至周五华东地区现货价为5080元/吨，较上周下跌65元/吨，目 前PTA自身供需面较弱，但短期地缘扰动下成本支撑偏强，预计下周PTA偏强运行为主，主要原因如 下： 原油端，OPEC+在1月暂停增产计划，供应格局小幅好转；地缘方面，元旦假期内俄乌与中东不确定性 增强，据央视新闻消息，南美地缘因美国入境轰炸并抓捕委内瑞拉总统有所激化，引发市场对委内瑞拉 原油供应中断的担忧，预计节后原油偏强运行。 从供需格局来看，目前PTA开工负荷76.28%，近期国内多套检修装置重启，后续仍有装置重启计划，供 应端仍有增加预期，但明年国内无新增PTA装置，长期PTA供应端支撑较强。需求端，江浙地区化学纤 维织造综合开工率为61%，终端市场表现疲软，一方面，冬装消费需求启动滞后，市场采购普遍采 取"即用即买"的谨慎策略； 另一方面，家纺领域需求亦呈现弱势，整体表现平平。受此影响，织造工厂普遍面临成品库存高企、新 增订单不足的双重困境，行业开工积极性明显受抑。 ...

Market Overview - As of December 29, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu is 138,800 tons, a decrease of 500 tons compared to the previous period [1] - The spot market for styrene has continued to rise, with prices ranging from 6,680 to 6,900 CNY/ton; as of December 31, the price in Jiangsu reached 6,880 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.96% from the average price of 6,555 CNY/ton the previous Thursday [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Last week, the restart of a 350,000-ton facility by Baolai and the shutdown of a 450,000-ton facility by Tianjin Bohua due to faults have led to an increase in styrene production and capacity utilization rates compared to the previous period [1] - The recent unexpected maintenance of facilities is expected to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand for domestic styrene in the short term, with visible inventory likely to continue decreasing [4] Institutional Insights - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, the styrene market has risen due to unexpected maintenance and export news, with low valuation and marginal positive factors gaining influence; however, the surplus of upstream pure benzene remains a major negative factor [3] - RD Futures notes that the geopolitical situation regarding the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as Russia and Ukraine, has not worsened recently, indicating limited upward pressure on oil prices; the supply-demand situation for pure benzene remains loose, providing limited support [4]

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20260101】回望2025：镍最值得关注的五个时刻 一、行情回顾 1 镍矿RKAB审批进展公布，供应预期率先定调 1月23日，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）透露，2025年镍矿开采配额总量已达2.98亿湿吨，高于去年的2.72 亿湿吨。这成为引发市场供应预期修正的第一个关键时点，部分奠定了镍产业全年"供过于求"的主基 调。 2 印尼政策集中释放期，本土资源管理加强 2025年3月以来，印尼政府连续推出一系列镍资源管控新规，标志着其资源治理策略进入全面收紧阶 段。这些政策指向多重目标：强化本土矿产资源主导权、掌握产业链关键环节定价能力、扩大财政税收 来源，并系统性提升印尼在全球镍产业链中的话语权与影响力。具体包括： 印尼总统Prabowo Subianto公布2025年第8号政府法规(PP)，涉及自然资源出口收入，要求自然资 源出口商将所有海外收入留存在国内至少一年，以优化资源收益在国内的流通。该政策于3月1日 生效，预计2025年将使印尼的外汇储备增加800亿美元。 印尼能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）发布新规，调整金属矿产基准价格（HMA）的计算方式。基 ...