Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bullish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Alumina: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with relatively clear investment opportunities) [1] - Tin: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆ (indicating a bearish trend with a relatively clear downward trend and the market situation is developing) [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy expectations. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] - For most metals, there are risks of price adjustments during the Spring Festival period, and investors need to pay attention to market changes and choose appropriate investment strategies [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions, and the price fluctuated more widely at the MA40 moving - average line. The lowest price of the main copper contract dropped to 98,000 yuan. Mid - and downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices. SMM spot copper was reported at 99,605 yuan, with a premium of 40 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. Next week, with margin adjustments, the positions of Shanghai copper may continue to fall below 550,000 lots. More attention should be paid to the inter - period reverse arbitrage. For single - side trading, there is a high risk of continuous inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and investors should patiently wait to buy at low prices [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum showed a weak shock today. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan were - 150 yuan, - 260 yuan, and - 150 yuan respectively. The processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded slightly to a positive value. In the short term, the macro - sentiment fluctuates, and the fundamental feedback is weak. The inventory performance before the Spring Festival is far worse than in previous years, and there is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Casting aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, and the market activity is not high. Driven by the macro - situation and with aluminum prices at a high level, casting aluminum alloy has difficulty rising in tandem, and its seasonal price difference with Shanghai aluminum will continue to be weaker than in previous years. The operating production capacity of domestic alumina may decline, and the number of overhauls has increased, but there has been no large - scale long - term production reduction. The alumina market remains in a state of surplus. With the decline in ore prices, the cash - cost support for alumina is below 2,500 yuan. The low basis provides limited impetus for the rebound of the futures price. Under the policy expectation, the futures market maintains a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [2] Zinc - Shanghai zinc rebounded but was pressured and fell back at the 5 - day moving - average line. The moving - averages formed a death - cross, and the short - term downward trend continues. The nearest support below is at 24,000 yuan/ton. The bearish sentiment is gradually being released, but as the Spring Festival approaches, the risk - aversion sentiment of funds is strong. Before the macro - expectation improves significantly, it is difficult to see a large - scale return of long - positions. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate and decline. The expectation of oversupply in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined, and the market trading was active. The downstream end - users of stainless steel became more cautious in purchasing due to high - price aversion. The actual transactions were weak, and the transactions were mainly concentrated in the arbitrage operations of futures - spot institutions. The goods were piled up in the circulation link. The arrival of goods at steel mills was limited, and although the inventory increased slightly, it was still at a low level. Traders were strongly willing to support the price, which supported the strong operation of the spot market. The market sentiment was panicked, and caution was advised [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced its positions and oscillated to the MA60 moving - average line, waiting for the social inventory data this week. The restocking next week will also be coming to an end. The recovery of the domestic upstream tin concentrate supply has affected the processing - fee quotation. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small number of short - positions against the MA5 moving - average line. The tin price may adjust to the MA60 daily line or even the weekly moving - average system [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock. The exchange policy affected the market participation. The continuously high price of lithium carbonate may have led to the closing of a large number of hedging positions. The strong spot market and long - position speculative positions are in the mainstream, and the position structure is fragile. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the market has slowed down, mainly because downstream enterprises replenish inventory opportunistically, and smelters are also showing signs of unsalable products. Traders' confidence in domestic products has wavered. The futures price of lithium carbonate has weakened, and the short - term uncertainty is extremely high [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon dropped significantly today, mainly affected by the news from the organic silicon industry. The entire organic silicon industry will implement a 30% emission - reduction target. If this target is implemented in the first quarter, based on the average monthly DMC production of 200,000 tons, it may affect the industry supply by 180,000 tons, corresponding to a reduction of about 90,000 tons in the demand for industrial silicon. Coupled with the significant decline in the polysilicon production schedule, the inventory of industrial silicon is showing a differentiated trend. The factory inventory in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, while the social inventory has climbed to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,000 tons. The overall market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 8,400 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures reduced positions and closed down. At the industry level, the association expects the new domestic installed capacity in 2026 to be 180 - 240GW, which is in line with market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the anti - involution orientation of the industry. Currently, the industry is still in a new round of in - depth adjustment period, and the problem of supply - demand mismatch has not been resolved. Enterprises are still under continuous operating pressure. The weekly inventory performance of the industrial chain is differentiated. The component inventory is 24.7GW, a decrease of 1.4GW compared with the previous week. The inventories of battery cells, silicon wafers, and polysilicon factories have all increased slightly. In the spot market, the price of N - type re - feed materials remained stable at 53,600 yuan/ton. After the emotional correction in the futures market, it is expected to maintain a shock [10]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Industry Weekly Report [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with geopolitical situation as the main driver. In the medium - and long - term, supply growth is expected to outpace demand, leading to inventory accumulation [7][8][12]. - **Polyester**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term. Demand for polyester may decline further before the Spring Festival but is expected to improve after the holiday [30][32][37]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by the weakening downstream procurement and the overall market. [44][45] - **Soda Ash**: In the short term, the soda ash market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds, and pay close attention to supply - demand changes and policy trends [92]. 4. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined last week. The WTI main contract fell 3.35% to $63.54/barrel, Brent fell 3.05% to $67.7/barrel, and SC fell 1.98% to 461.5 yuan/barrel [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term focus on the US - Iran situation, and expect oil prices to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to whether US military actions have a substantial impact on production and transportation facilities [8]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Geopolitical Factors**: The US - Iran nuclear negotiations are full of uncertainties. Iran is important in the crude oil market, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may affect oil prices. The US - India agreement on Russian oil imports is also uncertain [9][10]. - **Supply and Demand**: US crude oil production decreased last week, and refinery operating rates declined slightly. EIA and IEA are both pessimistic about the oil market in 2026, expecting supply to grow faster than demand and inventory to accumulate [11][12]. Polyester 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: PTA prices fell last week due to increased inventory and weak downstream demand. Ethylene glycol prices also declined due to weakening cost support and seasonal demand decline [30]. - **Operation Suggestions**: PTA is expected to have a stable market, while ethylene glycol may continue to decline in the short term [32]. 4.2. Main Driving Forces - **Downstream Consumption**: Polyester operating rates are expected to decline further, and the demand for PTA and ethylene glycol is likely to weaken before the Spring Festival but may improve after the holiday [33]. - **PTA**: PTA supply may slightly decrease, but the overall supply - demand situation remains unchanged. PX prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [34][35]. - **MEG**: The开工 rate of the ethylene glycol industry increased slightly last week, and the inventory at major ports in East China increased. The short - term supply - demand structure is still weak [36][37]. Paper Pulp 4.1. Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: As of Thursday, the pulp 05 contract closed at 5,254 yuan/ton, down 1.61% week - on - week. Spot prices of various wood pulps also declined [44]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, paper pulp prices are expected to adjust in a range before the holiday, affected by downstream procurement and market sentiment [45]. 4.2. Fundamental Changes - **Pulp Shipment Volume**: In November, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased, while that of broad - leaf pulp increased [46]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In December, China's pulp import volume decreased month - on - month and year - on - year [53]. - **Pulp Inventory**: As of the end of November, the inventory days of global producers' coniferous and broad - leaf pulp increased. As of the end of January, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased [59]. Soda Ash 4.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The main contract of soda ash (SA605) fluctuated widely last week, with the price center moving down. Production decreased slightly, demand weakened, and inventory increased [85]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Do not easily go long. In the short term, the market is likely to remain weak and volatile. In the medium - and long - term, look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [92]. 4.2. Soda Ash Market Situation - **Supply**: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of China's soda ash industry decreased slightly last week, and the weekly production decreased. New production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure remains high [93][94]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of February 5, the inventory of soda ash enterprises increased, indicating an imbalance between supply and demand [103][104]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic soda ash spot market was weak and volatile, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton next week [106][108]. - **Downstream**: The float glass industry is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand and increasing inventory, which has a negative impact on soda ash demand. The photovoltaic glass market is in a "weak - stable" state, and the long - term overcapacity problem remains [109][110][112]. - **Summary**: The soda ash market is facing a structural imbalance. The key to solving the problem lies in expanding exports and accelerating the clearance of backward production capacity [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.65%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.43%, and the volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak. The price of hot - rolled coil will still be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.23%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakly stable, while the supply pressure still exists. The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous 10 - month running trend below 50%. By region, the manufacturing PMI in Africa decreased to 49.6%, that in Europe rose to 50%, that in Asia slightly decreased to 51%, and that in the Americas rose to 51.8% [7]. - In January 2026, the average monthly working hours of China's main construction machinery products were 72.5 hours, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.19%, among which excavators were 62.8 hours. The average monthly start - up rate of main construction machinery products was 48.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points, among which excavators were 48.6% [8]. - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The total iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5%. The total iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 16.17 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12%. The annual iron ore output in 2025 was 60.8 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the cumulative annual iron ore sales volume was 61.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The annual iron ore production guidance target for 2026 was raised to 55 - 59 million tons (previously 54 - 58 million tons). Among them, the output of the Kumba mine is 31 - 33 million tons, and that of the Minas - Rio mine is 24 - 26 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190, 3,160 and 3,306 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,250, 3,150 and 3,284 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160; the coil - rebar price difference was 60, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030. The price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 0, - 10, 0, 0 respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 756 with a change of - 9; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 with a change of - 1; the sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.34 and 23.57 respectively with changes of - 0.01 and - 0.39; the SGX swap price was 100.90 with a change of - 1.60; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.30 with a change of - 1.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,077, with a decline of 0.65%, the highest price was 3,111, the lowest price was 3,074, the trading volume was 723,307, the volume difference was 41,902, the open interest was 1,915,253, and the open interest difference was 67,582 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,251, with a decline of 0.43%, the highest price was 3,270, the lowest price was 3,250, the trading volume was 276,669, the volume difference was - 7,206, the open interest was 1,484,610, and the open interest difference was - 10,036 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 772.0, the lowest price was 760.0, the trading volume was 216,259, the volume difference was - 115,477, the open interest was 514,745, and the open interest difference was - 10,368 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents charts of steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [16][22]. - It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have seasonally weakened, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change. The relative positive factor is the policy expectation after the holiday. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the overall level remains relatively high, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions have continued to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the output of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil. However, attention should be paid to the potential pressure from the intensification of demand - weakening contradictions, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills have both increased this week. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports is weakly stable, but the shipping volume of miners continues to increase, and the overseas supply of iron ore has stabilized and rebounded. Even though the domestic supply of iron ore has seasonally shrunk, the supply pressure remains under the high - inventory situation. The price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak and volatile state during the pre - holiday demand off - season. For nickel, the short - term trend is weakly volatile due to oversupply, pre - holiday demand slump, and weak macro - sentiment. For stainless steel, it shows a short - term range - bound oscillation due to the game between cost - side support and demand off - season and inventory pressure [1][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2603 opened at 136,810 yuan/ton and closed at 134,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 582,524 (+100,958) lots, and the open interest was 93,478 (-5,975) lots. It showed a weak and volatile trend of opening high and closing low, with intensified intraday fluctuations. The core drivers were oversupply, pre - holiday demand off - season, and weak macro - sentiment. The strengthening of the US dollar and the overall correction of the non - ferrous sector also increased the downward pressure [1] - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market showed a differentiated trend. Philippine mine tender prices continued to rise due to strong purchasing demand, while the domestic Chinese market was in a state of full - scale waiting and trading was almost stagnant. In the Philippines, the latest tender price of 1.4% grade nickel ore from the northern mine Eramen was reported to have reached FOB 52 US dollars/wet ton, and 1.3% grade nickel ore in the Tawi - Tawi area was traded at FOB 45 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the market demand was relatively active, and the CIF receiving price of 1.4% grade nickel ore by Indonesian factories was 61 US dollars/wet ton, and that of 1.3% grade was 54 US dollars/wet ton [2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 144,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - price spot resources were mainly traded, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 50,464 (2,392) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,074 (-240) tons [3] Strategy - Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations. However, as the interference in nickel ore supply continues to ferment, there is certain support on the cost side. If the price correction is large, one can consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly range operations; Cross - period: none; Cross - variety: none; Spot - futures: none; Options: none [4][7] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 5, 2026, the stainless steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,815 yuan/ton and closed at 13,810 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 171,143 (-52,886) lots, and the open interest was 53,371 (-4,171) lots. It showed a trend of opening high, oscillating, and slightly rising at the end of the session, with mild intraday fluctuations. The core driver was the game between cost - side support and demand off - season and inventory pressure. In the short term, it was mainly range - bound. The strengthening of the US dollar and the overall correction of the non - ferrous sector also put pressure on the stainless steel price, but it showed certain resistance to decline [4][6] - **Spot**: As the Spring Festival approached, the trading activity of stainless steel significantly declined, but the quotes were basically stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium and discount was 410 to 610 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,037.5 yuan/nickel point [6] Strategy - Similar to nickel, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, it is necessary to pay attention to position risks. It is recommended to mainly conduct range operations. However, as the interference in nickel ore supply continues to ferment, there is certain support on the cost side. If the price correction is large, one can consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly range operations; Cross - period: none; Cross - variety: none; Spot - futures: none; Options: none [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the futures market of various energy - chemical products, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and provides corresponding investment suggestions. For different products, the market is generally characterized by fluctuations, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, cost pressures, or geopolitical impacts [2][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse leads to price decline and weakening of the monthly spread. It is in a state of inventory accumulation, and the processing fee has declined. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday, with a downward trend in the single - side price following the cost [5][9] - **PTA**: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation, with a bearish monthly spread. The polyester start - up rate is expected to decline marginally, and the supply is stable, resulting in a situation of inventory accumulation in January - February. The single - side price should focus on the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [10] - **MEG**: It is a single - side range - bound market, and it is recommended to operate within the range of 3700 - 4000. The supply is increasing, and the import volume remains high. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3.2 Rubber - It shows a wide - range oscillation. The price of Thai raw materials has increased, and the production in some regions has decreased. However, the overall market trend is neutral [11][12][14] 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - It oscillates under pressure. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory of butadiene has declined. The supply pressure of butadiene is increasing, and the futures price is falling from a high - valuation level [15][16][17] 3.4 LLDPE - The import is narrowing, and the bids are limited. The strong naphtha compresses the cracking profit. The raw material oil price has stabilized, and the downstream demand has weakened. The supply side has some changes, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the destocking rate after the holiday [18][19] 3.5 PP - The valuation repair is limited, and the L - PP spread is under pressure. The cost side has stabilized, and the supply - demand game of existing inventory has intensified. The demand side has limited support, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [21][22] 3.6 Caustic Soda - The near - month delivery pressure is relatively large. The inventory in Shandong is high, and the short - term spot weakness is difficult to reverse. However, the far - month contract may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [24][25] 3.7 Pulp - It oscillates. The import pulp market has declined, mainly affected by weak demand, the inability of cost increases to be transmitted, and the slowdown of downstream production activities before the holiday [30][31][33] 3.8 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market demand is weakening before the holiday, and the local production capacity is expected to decrease, which provides some support for the price [35][36] 3.9 Methanol - It oscillates with support. The port methanol price has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The inland price has continued to decline. The macro - level has both positive and negative factors, and the supply - demand pattern suppresses the upward price space. The cost provides support at the bottom [38][40][41] 3.10 Urea - It oscillates in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price is stable. The short - term oscillation has support, with a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1750 - 1760 yuan/ton [43][44][45] 3.11 Styrene - It oscillates strongly. The capital sentiment has receded, and the market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the inventory is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation phase. The upward driving force is limited [46][47] 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is oscillating at a low level, the enterprise production is slightly decreasing, and the downstream demand is tepid. The price may oscillate weakly and stably [51] 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental driving force is downward. The price of CP paper has increased, and the PDH device has some maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [54] 3.14 PVC - It oscillates weakly. The spot supply and demand are weak, the export atmosphere has weakened, and the industry continues to accumulate inventory. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [62][63] 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It continues to rebound, and the short - term weakness is suspended [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It adjusts in a narrow range, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains at a historical low [65] 3.16 Container Freight Index (European Line) - The expectation of price increase is rising again. The futures price has increased, and shipping companies have announced price increases. The supply - side capacity has been adjusted, and the geopolitical situation affects the shipping routes. Different contracts have different investment strategies [67][77][80] 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The futures price oscillates weakly, and the spot price is stable. The factory sales rate is highly differentiated [82] - **Bottle Chips**: It is in a short - term oscillating market. The upstream raw material price has declined, and the factory price has been partially adjusted. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [83] 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to hold short positions and reverse spreads. The spot price in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mill orders are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak [85][86][88] 3.19 Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. The port inventory of pure benzene has decreased slightly, and the spot and paper - cargo prices have declined. The market is in a state of strong oscillation [90][91][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 will have a directional impact on short - term oil prices. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Iran and Russia and OPEC+ production expectations in the second quarter are the core concerns of the crude oil market in February. The chemical market is divided under high oil price volatility. [2][3] - For different chemical products, the report provides specific views and outlooks, generally suggesting a volatile trend for the chemical industry, with the movement of the US - Iran relationship disturbing oil prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks ended with a prisoner - exchange agreement. The Iranian delegation arrived in Oman for nuclear - issue negotiations with the US. [6] - **Main Logic**: High oil price volatility continues before the US - Iran negotiation. Overseas diesel crack spreads are weak, and refinery margins are under pressure. Russia is increasing discounts on crude oil exports to China, and there are concerns about reduced purchases from India. Geopolitical premiums still exist, and short - term focus is on the US - Iran negotiation and India's oil purchases from Russia. [2][6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The fundamentals are in a supply - surplus state, but geopolitical situations may cause potential disruptions to supply expectations. [6] Asphalt - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the asphalt futures price was 3339 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3270 yuan/ton, 3600 yuan/ton, and 3250 yuan/ton respectively. [6] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical premium has partially declined. The partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will increase asphalt raw material supply in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products. [6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price was 2824 yuan/ton. [6] - **Main Logic**: The US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, which may put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The tense situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and may increase fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is oscillating at a high level. [6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [6] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price was 3285 yuan/ton. [8] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Natural gas price fluctuations affect it through the crack spread of gasoline and diesel and the expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil power generation. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low. [8] - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, but its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil. [8] PX - **Market News**: On February 5, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was 902(+5) dollars/ton, and the PX Korea FOB price was 880(+5) dollars/ton. The PX main contract closed at 7200(-96) yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: Although the cost side has some support, the current supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak. Supply remains high, polyester and terminal demand are declining, inventory is accumulating, and the profit is continuously declining. [9] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The PX price is expected to fluctuate, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [300, 330] dollars/ton. [9] PTA - **Market News**: On February 5, the PTA spot price was 5140(+60) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 5144(-74) yuan/ton. The polyester filament and polyester chip production - sales rates were low. [9] - **Main Logic**: The cost side has some support, but the supply has increased slightly, and the polyester enterprises' maintenance scope has expanded during the Spring Festival. The inventory accumulation is greater than expected, and the terminal demand is insufficient. [9] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The PTA price is expected to be in a low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to the TA05 - 09 spread and the support at 5100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract. [9] Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On February 6, the pure benzene 2603 contract closed at 6127, a change of - 1.34%. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products have changed. [9] - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene is a low - valued variety and is a choice for capital allocation. Although the current inventory is high, the de - stocking expectation in Q1 exists. [9][10] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly upward. The high inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and the de - stocking expectation in the far - month exists. [10] Styrene - **Market News**: On February 6, the East China styrene spot price was 7829(-106) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 140(-18) yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is volatile and slightly upward. The crude oil price is stable, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and overseas disturbances. [11] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly upward. The seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be lower, and the de - stocking trend will resume in March. [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On February 5, the ethylene glycol market was weak. The spot price in Zhangjiagang was around 3630 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 3745 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port increased. [13] - **Main Logic**: The cost side is stable, but the supply has increased in the short - term, and the demand has decreased, resulting in a weak market. [14] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The price is expected to be in the range of [3700 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract. [16] Short - Fiber - **Market News**: On February 5, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber price fell to 6570 yuan/ton. The PF2603 contract closed at 6564 yuan/ton, and the production - sales rate was 60.43%. The inventory decreased slightly. [18] - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber market is in a weak consolidation. The upstream raw material price fluctuations cause pricing contradictions, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in low market trading activity. [18] - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the upstream, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. [18] Bottle Chip - **Market News**: On February 5, the East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6250 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 6114 yuan/ton, and the processing spread was 609.6 yuan/ton. [20] - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are adjusted within a range, and the polyester bottle - chip price follows the cost. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened before the Spring Festival. [20] - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the long - PR short - TA position. [20] Methanol - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2195 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The Iranian ZPC 165 - million - ton/year capacity device was restarted at a low load. [22] - **Main Logic**: The methanol price was volatile and slightly downward on February 5. The inland market trading improved, and the inventory decreased. However, the coastal market has high inventory and low downstream MTO device operation. Although the Iran situation is improving, there is still uncertainty. [22] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and may be slightly downward, but the low price may prompt the restart of some MTO devices. [22] Urea - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the urea price in the Shandong market was 1780 - 1790 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1779 yuan/ton. [23] - **Main Logic**: The supply of urea is sufficient as the gas - restricted devices are gradually restarted. The agricultural demand is for pre - festival fertilizer preparation, and the industrial demand is decreasing. The inventory has decreased, and the pre - received orders support the price. [23] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The urea price is expected to be slightly adjusted before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing, order digestion, and storage release plans. [23] LLDPE - **Market News**: On February 5, the LLDPE spot price was 6750(-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 27(+121) yuan/ton. The PE开工 rate was 87.03%(-0.27%). [25] - **Main Logic**: The plastic price was volatile and downward on February 5. Oil prices are volatile, affected by geopolitical factors. The overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the downstream has stopped production before the Spring Festival. The inventory is decreasing, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. [25] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [25] PP - **Market News**: On February 5, the PP price in East China was 6630(-30) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 46(+95) yuan/ton. The PP开工 rate was 74.9%(-0.01%). [26] - **Main Logic**: The PP price was volatile and downward on February 5. Oil prices are volatile, affected by geopolitical factors. The commodity market sentiment is weak, and the PP refinery profit is under pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. [26] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [26] PL - **Market News**: On February 5, the PL price in Shandong was 6410 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 205(+148) yuan/ton. [27] - **Main Logic**: The PL price was volatile on February 5. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact. The supply increase is limited, the inventory is controllable, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. [27] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [27] PVC - **Market News**: On February 5, the East China PVC price was 4910(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 142(+63) yuan/ton. [28] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors have less impact, and the "export rush" may weaken the demand support. The PVC production has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the export orders have decreased, and the cost has increased. [28] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The market sentiment is weak, but there are still policy expectations and cost disturbances. [28] Caustic Soda - **Market News**: On February 5, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 1841(-3) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 76(+58) yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine price increased by 50 yuan/ton. [29][30] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors have less impact, and the "dual - carbon" policy may accelerate the elimination of backward caustic soda production capacity. The caustic soda inventory is decreasing before the Spring Festival. The alumina production reduction may be slow, the demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the liquid chlorine price is volatile, affecting the cost. [28][29] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The increase in the liquid chlorine price opens the downward space for caustic soda, but considering the possible downward adjustment of the liquid chlorine price before the Spring Festival, the caustic soda price is expected to be volatile. [29] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed. For example, the Brent M1 - M2 spread is 0.65(-0.06) dollars/barrel, and the PX 1 - 5 month spread is 8(+36) yuan/ton. [31] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is - 89(+22) yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 40070 tons. [32] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. have changed. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 302(-30) yuan/ton. [33] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists the monitoring of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining a narrowing import loss [3][12] - The macroeconomic context includes a decrease in the US JOLTS job openings to 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020, and the European Central Bank's decision to keep the deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 1,925 tons to 180,575 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 2,036 tons to 532,005 tons [3][12] - The current copper market faces fundamental issues, and prices may experience fluctuations around the Spring Festival, suggesting caution in chasing higher prices [3][12] - However, rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in future demand imply that any significant drop in prices could attract long-term investment and industrial buying, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term price increases [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.1% to $15,115 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.14% to 121,180 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME inventory decreased by 240 tons to 286,074 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,392 tons to 50,464 tons [4][13] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices are showing strength, indicating concerns over resource supply tightness, with cost support continuing to rise [4][13] - The stainless steel market is experiencing inventory accumulation due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [4][13] - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in nickel prices, but strong cost support remains, suggesting potential trading opportunities near cost lines [4][5][13] Alumina & Aluminum - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,822 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum experienced a weak fluctuation, with AL2603 closing at 23,570 yuan per ton, down 0.23% [6][14] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disruptions, causing inventory accumulation as downstream stocking approaches its end [6][14] - The domestic aluminum water ratio is weakening, and high prices are suppressing demand, with downstream buyers reducing or canceling pre-holiday stockpiling [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,605 yuan per ton, down 2.77% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices also declined, with the main contract closing at 49,550 yuan per ton, down 1.52% [7][15] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, while downstream sectors are also undergoing repairs due to the Spring Festival [7][15] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with silicon material prices under pressure, and attention is needed on inventory levels and potential production cuts [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 10.68% to 132,780 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices dropping by 9,000 yuan to 144,000 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 790 tons [8][16] - The market sentiment has turned negative, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate prices, and downstream purchasing is expected to cool off after pre-holiday stockpiling [8][16] - The overall market lacks clear bullish drivers, and attention should be paid to trading opportunities following price corrections [8][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 铝现货市场成交清淡 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价23290元/吨，较上一交易日变化-410元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-220元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价23160元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化40元/吨至-350元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录23310元/吨，较上一交易日变化-400元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-200元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2026-02-03日沪铝主力合约开于23435元/吨，收于23810元/吨，较上一交易日变化-230元/吨， 最高价达23930元/吨，最低价达到23140元/吨。全天交易日成交763560手，全天交易日持仓226641手。 库存方面，截止2026-02-03，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150712 吨，较上一交易日变化253吨，LME铝库存495175吨，较上一交易日变化-2000吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-03SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元 ...