Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow down significantly due to uncertainties related to trade policies, with GDP growth forecasted to drop from over 2% to 1.4% by 2025 [2][3] - Inflation expectations have risen, with consumer prices projected to increase by 3.0%, up from a previous estimate of 2.5% [2][3] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates to a neutral level of around 3%, which is not considered contractionary for the economy [4] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Prospects - The Eurozone's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 2.1% to 0.8%, largely dependent on Germany's ability to relax fiscal controls [5][7] - Germany's €500 billion infrastructure investment plan could potentially be a game-changer, although its benefits may take time to materialize [5][7] - The Eurozone's inflation is expected to remain below the European Central Bank's target, allowing for potential interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 [8] Group 3: UK Economic Situation - The UK economy is showing signs of stability and growth, with GDP growth forecasted at around 1% for 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5% [9][10] - Recent strong growth and private consumption have shifted the risk outlook positively for the remainder of the year [9] - Inflation remains complex, with short-term fluctuations expected, but a gradual easing in price increases is anticipated due to a loosening labor market [10]

随着特朗普不受掌控的议题开始增多 以及透支效应的展现，居民的消费意愿可能会进 一步收缩，非农的下行风险将被放大（乃至断崖式下降），未来美国经济可能并不会 出现先胀后滞的分阶段变化， 基准情形是经济系统性地缓慢走弱，而非某一个部门出 现明显裂痕。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 美国近期经济数据的边际变化远比不上资产价格的波动与宏观叙事的演变。关税通胀并未如期发生， 硬数据与软数据的背离也开始修复 ，但波动的相对收敛并不会带来经济走弱这一方向的改变。 毫无疑问，从研究的角度需要继续观察更多的数据来判断关税的微观机制。但正如我们在《 美国衰退 冲击开始共振 》中提到的 ， 众多非关税政策的负面冲击已经变得越发明显 。从洛杉矶的骚乱（非法 移民）到中东的动荡（能源、外交），再到特朗普亲口承认优质劳动力感受到越发明显的寒蝉效应（意 识形态），这些抑制美国经济增长的因素正更加具象化体现。 同时美国需求走弱或将主导未来关税定价的传导。整体来看， 关税通胀不及预期的概率正在进一步上 升 （《 被高估的美国关税通胀 》），供需两侧都存在涨价的限制 （油价会成为波动极大的变量） ， 未来美国经济很可能并不会出现先胀后滞的分阶段 ...

期货研究报告 商品研究 [铜早报 Table_ReportType] 走势评级： 铜——高位盘整， 后续看跌 楼家豪—有色分析师 从业资格证号：F3080463 投资咨询证号：Z0018424 联系电话：0571-28132615 邮箱：loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20 楼 邮编：311200 暂时观望 等待时机做空 报告内容摘要: 宏观与行业消息：【万象矿业卡农铜矿项目正式开工】近日，赤峰吉隆黄 金矿业股份有限公司（以下简称"赤峰黄金"）所属万象矿业有限公司 （以下简称"万象矿业"）迎来重要战略时刻——塞班矿卡农铜矿露天采 矿工程正式开工，该项目经过招标，由中国铁建第十九工程局中标承包。 这是自 2021 年铜矿开采暂停后，重启的第一个大型铜矿项目，标志着万象 矿业再次进入"金铜并举"时代，卡农铜矿项目投产后将成为万象矿业另 一个重要的利润增长点。卡农铜矿项目作为万象矿业未来铜产量增长的重 要布局，其顺利开工具有深远的战略意义。（赤峰黄金） 品种逻辑:宏观角度，美国 CPI 数据出炉，全面低于市场预期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the manufacturing sector in the U.S. is showing further signs of deterioration, with the New York Fed manufacturing index dropping from -9.2 to -16 in June, reflecting a lack of recovery [2] - The New York Fed's new orders index also fell significantly from 7 to -14.2, indicating a deepening contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - The ongoing trade war initiated by President Trump aimed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., but it has disrupted supply chains, exacerbating the decline in manufacturing [2] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing widespread turmoil, with increased uncertainty overshadowing economic prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to focus on monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Fed may maintain current interest rates due to Chairman Powell's cautious stance on easing [2] - There is a belief that the Fed should lower interest rates promptly given the economic challenges, but various factors are causing delays in such actions, potentially increasing downward pressure on the economy [2] Group 3 - The potential for "black swan" events could lead to a crisis for the U.S. economy, further undermining the dollar and American hegemony [3]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a "flight" from long-term U.S. Treasuries as expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve diminish, with the 30-year Treasury yield approaching 5% [1] - Recent weak consumer and producer price data have revived rate cut expectations, with futures indicating a higher probability of cuts starting in September [1] - Concerns over fiscal policy, particularly the potential impact of Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan," which could increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion over the next decade, are contributing to a steepening yield curve [2] Group 2 - The trend of steepening yield curves is expected to continue, driven by a preference for short-term bonds while reducing exposure to long-term bonds due to uncertainties in fiscal expansion and potential inflation risks from tariff policies [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecasts, which suggest a policy rate of 3.75%-4.00% by the end of 2025, indicating a cautious outlook on long-term Treasuries [3]

以下文章来源于老魏一凡 ，作者老魏一凡 老魏一凡 . 渤海期货研究院长，先后在恒力化工学院，LG化学集团等企业工作，十八年以上化工品现货贸易、期现套 保与对冲经验，建立了估值+驱动力完整商品投研体系，有丰富的大资金套利对冲经验。 遇事不决读《毛选》！ 毛主席说：矛盾像洋葱般有着分层结构，关键是找到 主要矛盾 ！ （图片来自网络，如有侵权请联系删除） 我们看待遇问题，都是从第一性原理入手。 譬如，抗战期，国共表面是军事对抗，深层逻辑 却是土地问题；这种穿透表象的洞察力，才能够提出"农村包围城市的大战略"；当红军在雪山 草地的艰难斗争时，又提出"星星之火，可以燎原"；关键是找到事物的主要矛盾。 那么，期货价格的最核心、最主要矛盾是什么？ 就是基差！ 1、当下商品基差偏离过大 为什么说研究期货的主要矛盾，应该重点是研究基差？ 期货产生的第一性原理，是基于现货的价格而产生，而现货的价格是受到供需矛盾的影响，其 表现结果是库存。 文 | 老魏一凡 来源 | 老魏一凡 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 但是期货与现货有时候贴近，有时候背离，我们对期货的估值分析，其中主要一条是看基差。 甲醇有甲醇的基差，螺纹有螺纹的 ...

2025年06月16日 宏观经济点评报告 宏观经济组 分析师:宋雪涛 (执业 S1130525030001) songxuetao@gjzq.com.cn 美国衰退观察 II: 胀与滞的距离 基本内容 美国近期经济数据的边际变化远比不上资产价格的波动与宏观叙事的演变。关税通胀并未如期发生,硬数据与转散据 的背离也开始修复,但波动的相对收敛并不会带来经济走弱这一方向的改变。 毫无疑问,从研究的角度需要继续观察更多的数据来判断关税的微观机制。但正如我们此前报告中提到的那样《《美 国衰退冲击开始共振》,2025年4月7日),众多非关税政策的负面冲击已经变得越发明显。 从洛杉矶的骚乱（非法移民）到中东的动荡（能源、外交）再到特朗普亲口承认优质劳动力感受到越发明显的寒蝉救 应(意识形态),这些抑制美国经济增长的因素正更加具象化体现。 同时美国需求走弱或将主导未来关税定价的传导,从整体来看关税通胀不及预期的概率正在进一步上升(油价会成为 波动极大的变量,这也符合我们此前报告的判断《被高估的美国关税通胀》2025年５月２日）即美国供需两侧部 存在涨价的限制。未来美国经济很可能并不会出现先胀后滞的分阶段变化,账和滞的距离或变 ...

正信期货铜周报20250616 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 内容要点 宏观层面：本周铜价高位回落走势，价格在79500一线遇阻，现货升水承压，社库去化放缓 。尽管美国对钢铝再度提高关税至50%，引发对232调查还未落地的铜的关税预期走强，但从 COMEX铜与LME铜价差表现来看，力度并未有前一次剧烈，我们认为该驱动不足以持续驱动盘面 上涨。当前美国经济正等待"硬数据"观点，制造业一端回落，关注就业情况变化。美联储过 去三次降息从动机上看均为"预防式降息" ，但利率仍然处于限制性水平，而从近期美联储给 到的预期管理来看，有概率使得下一次降息成为"衰退式降息" ，这还要通过不断地"硬数据 "来给到是否有衰退风险的加强信号。 产业基本面：从铜目前的基本面来看，原料供给导致的精炼加工费低廉问题依然严峻，但这 仍然没有限制到精铜实际产出，5月精铜产量再创新高。国内需求季节性转淡，铜材开工率下 滑，社库进一步去化动能减弱，目前铜基本面主要集中国际贸易的博弈，美铜价格的虹吸效应 使得LME铜库存不断去化。 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 研究员：张杰夫 投资咨 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments suggests that the Federal Reserve may maintain current interest rates throughout the summer, with potential rate cuts of one to two times by the end of the year [1] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the U.S. recession outlook, citing that the impact of tariffs is lower than expected and the financial environment has returned to pre-tariff levels [2] - The current inflation data in the U.S. indicates that the impact of tariffs on consumer prices may be less significant than anticipated, although future CPI increases are expected due to tariff effects [2] Group 2: Global Economic and Market Trends - Analysts from Deutsche Bank note that the market's inflation and interest rate expectations in Japan are rising, putting pressure on the long-term bond market [1] - The performance of German and U.S. government bonds is influenced by inflation concerns and safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East [2] - The decline in new home sales in Singapore is attributed to a lack of new launches, reflecting uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook due to global trade challenges [3] Group 3: Currency and Oil Market Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is primarily driven by a rebound in oil prices rather than traditional safe-haven dynamics [4] - The U.S. has become one of the largest oil producers globally, which means that rising oil prices not only benefit oil-producing countries but also support the dollar through improved trade conditions [4] - Investors are advised to focus on global oil price changes and their impact on U.S. trade conditions for a more accurate prediction of the dollar's performance in international markets [5]

智通财经APP获悉，近期英国经济数据持续走弱，在增税措施与美国贸易政策双重压力下，英国央行正 面临新的降息考验。本周周四英国央行货币政策委员会将召开议息会议，市场普遍预期该央行将维持基 准利率在4.25%不变，但政策转向的信号已愈发明显。 图1 图2 最新经济指标显示通胀压力出现缓解迹象，这为政策调整预留了空间。尽管上个月通胀率意外上修至 3.4%，但英国央行仍坚持通胀将于2027年回归2%目标的预测。值得注意的是，中东局势紧张导致国际 油价单日飙升13%，可能对后续通胀走势构成干扰。市场定价已充分反映8月降息预期，交易员认为届 时降息概率从月初40%大幅攀升至80%，年底前两次降息的预期更是被完全消化。 值得关注的是，本次议息会议正值英国经济关键转折点。5月会议纪要显示，贝利等委员当时对降息持 观望态度，但最终以微弱优势通过25个基点降息决定。如今随着更多经济数据出炉，英国央行政策重心 正从抗通胀转向防衰退。汇丰经济学家马丁斯指出，若8月劳动力市场延续恶化趋势，降息决策将获得 更强支撑，而4月GDP数据已击碎一季度强劲增长带来的乐观预期。 劳动力市场数据成为政策转向的关键推手。5月就业人数出现五年来最大单月 ...