Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran by President Trump to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board represents a deep intertwining of monetary policy and political intervention, potentially leading to short-term benefits for risk assets through interest rate cuts, but posing long-term risks to the independence of the Federal Reserve, inflation, and the credibility of the dollar, which may reshape global capital flows [2][18]. Group 1: Nomination and Political Implications - Trump's nomination of Miran is seen as a strategic move to penetrate the Federal Reserve, which is viewed as the global financial power center [4]. - Miran, known as the "chief architect" of Trump's economic strategy, is expected to push for a more dovish monetary policy, which aligns with Trump's criticism of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's high interest rates [5][6]. - The temporary nature of Miran's appointment allows the White House to avoid significant backlash from Congress while enabling him to influence the Fed's internal dynamics [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following Miran's nomination, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September surged to over 90%, leading to a decline in the dollar index [6]. - The market's sensitivity to policy signals has increased, with potential sell-offs if rate cuts are delayed or insufficient [7]. - The nomination is likely to intensify the existing divisions within the Federal Reserve, particularly between hawkish and dovish members, which could lead to a stalemate in upcoming meetings [6][8]. Group 3: Long-term Consequences - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair is heating up, with Miran's temporary role potentially positioning him as a candidate for a longer-term appointment if he demonstrates effective policy execution [8]. - The future chairperson's selection will directly influence monetary policy, including interest rate decisions and the strength of the dollar, making this a critical event for market participants [9]. - Miran's advocacy for reforms that could undermine the Fed's independence raises concerns about inflation risks and the trust in the dollar, potentially leading to a reconfiguration of global capital flows [10]. Group 4: Sector-specific Impacts - In the stock market, the expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to benefit growth stocks, while sectors reliant on imports may face challenges due to rising tariff costs [12]. - In the bond market, the anticipated rate cuts could lead to lower yields on U.S. Treasuries, although unexpected inflation spikes could trigger sell-offs in long-term bonds [13]. - The foreign exchange market may see the dollar under pressure, with currencies like the euro and yen gaining support, alongside commodities such as gold, which will continue to attract interest as a safe-haven asset [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are currently weak, but there is still macro risk sentiment, leading to price fluctuations. The price is expected to range between 77,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3]. - Global copper inventories have increased significantly on the margin, and the macro situation is uncertain but not yet negative. Unilateral operations should be cautious, while long-term inventory depletion logic favors forward contract term positive spreads [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading End - Volatility: Volatility in SHFE copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has all declined, with COMEX copper price volatility dropping to around 60% [10]. - Term Spread: The term structure of SHFE copper has weakened, and the LME copper spot discount has widened. The COMEX copper C structure has narrowed [12][15]. - Position: Positions in SHFE copper, LME copper, international copper, and COMEX copper have all decreased, with SHFE copper positions decreasing by 18,600 lots to 464,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Positions: The net long position of CFTC non-commercial traders has decreased, and the net short position of LME commercial traders has increased [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has declined [26]. - Inventory: Global total copper inventories have increased, with a significant increase in LME inventories. Domestic social inventories have increased, bonded area inventories have decreased, and COMEX inventories have increased [29][32]. - Position-Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position-inventory ratio has declined, weakening the logic of spot tightness [33]. 2. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Copper concentrate imports have increased year-on-year, port inventories have increased, and processing fees have marginally rebounded, but smelters are still in a loss-making state [36][38]. - Recycled Copper: Recycled copper imports have increased year-on-year, while domestic production has decreased significantly. The scrap-to-refined spread is weak, and import losses have widened [39][44]. - Blister Copper: Blister copper imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level [49]. - Refined Copper: Domestic refined copper production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and spot import losses have widened [52][53]. 3. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened in July on a month-on-month basis. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises rebounded in the week of August 7th [56]. - Profit: Copper rod processing fees are at a low level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees have weakened [59][62]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remains at a low level [63]. - Finished Product Inventory: Copper rod finished product inventories have declined, and wire and cable finished product inventories have decreased [66]. 4. Consumption End - Consumption: Apparent copper consumption is good, and grid investment is an important support. Grid investment has accelerated, and the air conditioning output growth rate has rebounded. New energy vehicle production is at a high level compared to the same period in history [71][73].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: August 8, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views Positive Factors - Low domestic zinc ingot inventory supports prices [3] - Strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts put pressure on the US dollar, boosting the rebound of zinc prices [3] Negative Factors - Accelerated supply growth and the release of new production capacity lead to oversupply [3] - It is the off - season for demand, with the downstream operating rate falling to a low level and weak consumption [3] Trading Consultation Views - Institutions are bullish on Shanghai zinc, mainly due to the good low - inventory situation [3] Processing and Terminal Demand Galvanized Sheet Coil - Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [5] - Weekly inventory - seasonal data is shown from 2021 to 2025 [5] - Steel mill weekly production - seasonal data is provided from 2021 to 2025 [5] Other Products - Net export seasonality data is provided for galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [6][7][10] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data for real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area are presented [13][15] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data for infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) is shown [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonal data is provided from 2021 to 2025 [23] - TC (treatment charge) data is presented from 2022 - 04 to 2025 - 04 [25] Zinc Ingot - Monthly production seasonal data for SMM zinc ingots is shown from 2021 to 2025 [26] - Monthly production + import volume seasonal data for Chinese zinc ingots is provided from 2021 to 2025 [27] Inventory - Data on zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory are presented [29][30] Futures and Spot Market Review Price Trends - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are shown from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [32] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data is presented from 2022 - 04 to 2025 - 04 [34] Trading Volume and Position - Volume and position data of Shanghai zinc futures main contract are provided from 2023 - 12 to 2025 - 06 [33] Basis and Premium - Data on LME zinc premium, zinc ingot three - location basis, and Tianjin zinc ingot basis are presented [36][38][39]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term trend of gold prices will be driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - Trump's tariff policy may lead to further adjustments in global supply chains, increasing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices [1] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is nearly certain, which will continue to suppress the dollar and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3410-3420 range [3] - The MACD indicator has completed an adjustment below the zero line, and a bullish crossover is expected to trigger a significant price increase [3] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and long positions during pullbacks, with key resistance at 3410-3420 and support at 3380-3370 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, breaking above the short-term resistance of $37.87 [5] - If silver can maintain levels above $37.87, it may challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, which is a 14-year high [5] - The trading strategy recommends buying on pullbacks at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, while aiming for $39.00 on a breakout [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the gold market, highlighting the continuous increase in gold reserves by the central bank and the potential for gold prices to rise in the future due to various catalysts and changing investment logic in gold stocks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Reserves - As of the end of July, the central bank's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth [2][3]. - The increase in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move, with the central bank aiming to optimize its international reserve structure, as the gold proportion in reserves is currently at 7.0%, significantly below the global average of around 15% [3]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Trends - Analysts predict that there are several catalysts that could drive gold prices higher in the second half of the year, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts, combined with increasing global economic and political uncertainties, may lead to a "stair-step" upward trend in gold prices, reflecting the growing appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 3: Changing Investment Logic in Gold Stocks - The investment logic for gold stocks is expected to shift from focusing on short-term production growth to emphasizing companies with larger gold reserves, as these companies will become more valuable in a rising gold price environment [2][6]. - Companies with established large gold mines may attract more attention if gold prices remain high, as their fixed asset investments are already completed, leading to increased free cash flow and higher company valuations [6].

Group 1 - The recent personnel and policy movements at the Federal Reserve have garnered significant global market attention, particularly regarding the succession of Powell and potential monetary policy adjustments [1] - The list of candidates for Powell's successor has expanded to approximately ten individuals, including notable figures such as former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former economic advisor to George W. Bush, Mark Soumerin [3] - The departure of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has accelerated changes within the Federal Reserve Board, with Trump nominating Stephen Moore to fill the vacancy, which is seen as a significant shift in the decision-making structure of the Fed [4] Group 2 - The expansion of the candidate list for Powell's successor indicates a shift from previous narrowing down to just a few names, reflecting a more dynamic selection process [3] - Stephen Moore's background in economic policy and his previous roles in the Trump administration suggest that his appointment could influence the Fed's approach to interest rate discussions, especially in the context of rising expectations for rate cuts [4]

以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 今天大A又涨了。 指数回到了3600点以上，接近今年的新高，如果后面两天再涨一点，就能再创今年年内的新高，牛市气息扑面而来。 但是，在一片牛市的氛围中，我却观察到了一条信息： 根据最新的数据显示，当下 A股的融资融券余额已经达到20002.59亿元。 | | | | A股融资交易情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 截止日 | 融资余额(亿元) | 期间买入额(亿元) | 期间偿还额(亿元) | 期间库头人 F | | 1 | 2025/8/5 | 19863. 11 | 1635. 60 | 1548. 53 | 87. 06 | | 2 | 2025/8/4 | 19776. 05 | 1524. 21 | 1410. 90 | 113. 30 | | SD | 2025/8/1 | 19662. 74 | 1575. 22 | 1622. 75 | -47.53 | | 4 | 2025/7/31 | ...

Group 1 - The US stock market is experiencing a complex mix of excitement and anxiety, with investors questioning the sustainability of the current bull market and the timing of potential risks [1][3] - The market dynamics are influenced by the ongoing AI boom, ample liquidity, and expectations of interest rate cuts, which are unlikely to dissipate in the short term [3][7] - Speculative funds have become the main force in the market, pushing prices higher while fundamental analysis takes a backseat [3][7] Group 2 - The confrontation between bullish and bearish forces in the market has intensified, with more investors leaning towards buying and fewer willing to short [5] - The S&P 500 index rebounded strongly after a sell-off in April, driven by speculative capital, which has led to a one-sided market direction [7] - Despite the accumulation of risks, investors continue to bet on the continuation of the bull market, driven by short-term strategies and the influence of AI and liquidity [8][10] Group 3 - Market sentiment is heavily influenced by AI, liquidity, and expectations of interest rate cuts, with risks being postponed until a critical point is reached [8][12] - The influx of speculative funds and new participants like AI traders and CTA funds has created a market environment where shorting is seen as counterproductive [10][14] - The current market atmosphere resembles the 2021 cryptocurrency bull market, characterized by a "only up" mentality despite underlying economic concerns [14]

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - The potential for tariff adjustments may reshape supply chains and increase inflation, supporting gold prices [1] - The market anticipates a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could lower the dollar and bond yields, benefiting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Spot gold faced resistance at the key level of $3,400, reaching a two-week high of $3,409 before retreating due to short sellers [1] - The price trend is still forming an ascending triangle pattern, although a brief drop below the upward trend line last week has weakened this formation [1] - Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment, with a daily RSI of 57 and a positive MACD, although the ADX indicates insufficient trend strength [3] Group 3 - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, pushing silver above the short-term support level of $37.87 [5] - If silver maintains above this level, it may challenge the 14-year high of $39.53; however, if it falls below, it could drop to $36.90, with the 50-day moving average providing the next support [5] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest buying on a pullback at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, with further upside potential to $39.00 if broken [5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - US non-farm employment data for July fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating a weakening job market[2] - The unemployment rate is rising, influenced by immigration policies that lower labor participation rates[2] - Forward-looking indicators such as manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI employment components have reached recent lows, reflecting overall economic weakness[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The divergence in interest rate expectations between the US and Europe is notable, with US officials expressing concerns about the labor market while maintaining a neutral stance overall[5] - European inflation data shows July CPI growth near central bank targets, reinforcing confidence in keeping policy rates unchanged[5] Group 3: China's Economic Performance - China's export growth has exceeded expectations, supported by low base effects and stable demand from non-US countries, while exports to the US have weakened due to diminishing tariff relief effects[5] - Domestic demand remains uncertain, with imports primarily driven by integrated circuits and high-tech products, while the improvement in bulk commodity imports is largely price-driven[5] Group 4: Policy Developments - Recent government policies, such as the implementation of childcare subsidies and the promotion of free preschool education, aim to alleviate financial pressures on low- and middle-income families and support long-term population development[5] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Prices for non-ferrous metals have generally increased, while oil prices have declined, reflecting broader market dynamics[4]