2025年04月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产地陆续停产，硅铁价格支撑 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，锰硅偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：超跌修复 | 7 | | 焦煤：超跌修复 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求改善，价格探涨 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 10 日 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo025993@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang015104@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌( ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - term TA load is decreasing, polyester load is stable, inventory is decreasing, and the basis is strengthening while the spot processing fee is weakening. PX domestic maintenance is being implemented, and overseas Korean plants may reduce loads or extend maintenance. Although demand may be pressured by tariff hikes, TA will maintain a de - stocking state in the short term, and the performance of spreads between months and processing fees is expected to be volatile [1]. - For MEG, the near - term domestic oil - based production is stable, coal - based production has some load reduction, port inventory is accumulating, and the basis is poor. As supply - side maintenance is implemented, it is expected to enter a de - stocking stage, and attention should be paid to long - position opportunities near the coal - based cost [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - term production reduction by Huahong and Huaxi has led to a decline in the operating rate. The downstream performance is weak, and tariff hikes may affect demand. Although there are plans to restart production, the production reduction may increase, and the processing fee may be in a stalemate under the situation of weak supply and demand [1]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level. Thai raw material prices are high, and the subsequent tapping may increase supply. The import data from January to February was lower than expected, and the macro - environment is poor. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the macro - environment, domestic inventory accumulation, and subsequent tapping weather [1]. - For styrene, the prices of related products have shown certain fluctuations, and the domestic profit of some products has also changed. The performance of the industry is affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand [1]. Summaries by Product PTA - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of crude oil decreased by 1.4, the price of PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 15, and the PTA inner - market spot price decreased by 190 [1]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1.2 million - ton device stopped [1]. MEG - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 6, and the MEG inner - market price decreased by 19 [1]. - Device Changes: Xinjiang Zhongkun's 600,000 - ton device reduced its load, and Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton device was under maintenance [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 185 [1]. - Device Changes: No device maintenance information was reported this week, but Huahong and Huaxi reduced production, and the operating rate dropped to 91% [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by 275, and the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber decreased by 260 [1]. - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, and Thai raw material prices are high [1]. Styrene - Price Changes: From April 1 to April 8, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, while the price of styrene (CFR China) decreased by 20 [1]. - Profit Changes: The domestic profit of styrene decreased by 430 from April 7 to April 8 [1].

2. 据Mysteel，4月8日中国47港进口铁矿石库存总量14905.39万吨，较上周一下降97.98万吨。具体区域 来看，本期进口铁矿石库存减量主要体现在华东、华北两个区域；华南、东北和沿江进口铁矿石库存有 所增量。 3. 印尼财政部长周二表示，印尼将调整毛棕榈油出口税，以减轻美国关税对出口商的负担。印尼目前根 据价格水平，对毛棕榈油征收每吨最高288美元的出口税。此举将使出口商的负担"减轻5%左右"，但没 有提供更多细节。 金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（4月9日） 1. 据Mysteel，甘肃某硅铁厂于今日停产检修2台硅铁矿热炉，涉及减少硅铁日产110吨，复产时间待 定。 4. 据欧盟委员会，截至4月6日，欧盟2024/25年度大豆进口量为1033万吨，而去年同期为985万吨；油菜 籽进口量为518万吨，而去年同期为455万吨；棕榈油进口量为208万吨，而去年同期为272万吨。 5. 高盛预计布伦特原油和WTI原油价格将分别在2025年12月跌至62美元和58美元，并在2026年12月跌至 55美元和51美元。 7. 据Mysteel，2025年3月国内碳酸锂产量为8.02万吨，环比上涨25.2% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil drags down EB, causing a cost-driven decline. The price fluctuations are mainly driven by crude oil. The two-stage spread of pure benzene processing fee and styrene processing profit is expected to fluctuate within a range, and there are currently few contradictions in the industrial chain [1][2] - It is recommended to conduct cautious short hedging [3] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - Pure benzene port inventory is 140,500 tons (-500 tons), CFR China processing fee is 219 dollars/ton (-1 dollar/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 198 dollars/ton (-1 dollar/ton), US-Korea spread is -78.8 dollars/ton (-57.4 dollars/ton), still closed. The spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 45 yuan/ton (+120 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene's main basis is 56 yuan/ton (-169 yuan/ton), still strong; non-integrated production profit is -250 yuan/ton (+43 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] EB& Pure Benzene开工 Inventory - Pure benzene port inventory is gradually reaching the bottom, continuing to fluctuate within a range. With the decline in downstream pick-up, there is a possibility of re-accumulation. The pure benzene processing fee is weak [2] - In April, there are more styrene overhauls, the decline rate of styrene factory inventory has further accelerated, and this week, styrene port inventory has also continued to decline. Styrene processing profit has a rebound driver [2] - Styrene port inventory is 119,000 tons (-27,600 tons), commercial inventory is 83,000 tons (-15,100 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The styrene operating rate is 73.3% (-2.0%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - EPS production profit is 844 yuan/ton (+614 yuan/ton), PS production profit is 144 yuan/ton (+364 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 820 yuan/ton (+467 yuan/ton) [1] - EPS operating rate is 53.61% (+2.38%), PS operating rate is 64.60% (-4.20%), ABS operating rate is 68.60% (-4.20%), and the downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low [1] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - No specific data summary provided in the text, but figures for various pure benzene downstream production profits are presented, including caprolactam, phenol-ketone, aniline, etc. [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The ethylene glycol market has been affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and policy. The price has shown significant fluctuations, and the market has been in a weak state. The terminal textile consumption demand is worrying, and the market trading is light. The supply - side increase and demand weakness are expected to continue in the short - term, but there is hope for inventory reduction and supply - demand recovery in the long - term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On April 8, 2025, the price of CFR Northeast Asia ethylene glycol was $575.55 per ton, a decrease of 14.43% compared to the previous value; the price of North American naphtha was $26.26 per ton, a decrease of 1.00%; the price of East China ethylene oxide was 6800 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Inner Mongolia brown coal (Q3000) was 300 yuan per ton, unchanged; the settlement price of the main contract was 448 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.2%; the closing price of the nearby contract was 4522 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of East China ethylene glycol was 4310 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.50%; the price index of foreign ethylene glycol was 2200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.1%; the price difference between near and far months was 2200 yuan per ton [1]. Equipment Maintenance Information - A 600,000 - ton/year Xinjiang ethylene glycol synthesis unit has been shut down for maintenance as planned; a 900,000 - ton/year Dalian ethylene glycol unit's maintenance plan has been postponed due to factors such as profit; a 300,000 - ton/year Shanxi ethylene glycol unit's maintenance plan has been postponed due to equipment problems; a 400,000 - ton/year East China ethylene glycol unit's maintenance time is expected to be about 3 weeks [2]. Market Transaction Information - On April 7, the ethylene glycol futures market was affected by factors such as cost and policy, with a sharp decline in the early session, hitting the daily limit, and then rebounding slightly in the late session. The low - level trading price was around 4345 - 4350 yuan per ton, and the afternoon trading price was around 4485 yuan per ton [2]. Market Situation and Outlook - Since the beginning of the year, the ethylene glycol market has been in a weak state. Terminal textile consumption demand is worrying, and the prices of polyester products such as polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips have declined significantly. The supply - side increase and demand weakness are expected to continue in the short - term, but there is hope for inventory reduction and supply - demand recovery in the long - term as the shutdown time of ethylene glycol units is extended [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market shows a situation where the pattern of refined nickel surplus remains unchanged, and the frequent policy adjustments of the Indonesian government and heavy macro - negative factors are expected to suppress nickel prices, leading to a weak operation of nickel prices [1]. - The stainless - steel market has a relatively loose supply, slow demand recovery, limited support from raw material prices, and heavy pressure on the non - ferrous sector under macro - negative factors, so the stainless - steel price is expected to show a weak trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 1,960 yuan/ton, 2,130 yuan/ton, 2,140 yuan/ton, and 2,070 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 184,999 lots, an increase of 2,647 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 89,599 lots, a decrease of 1 lot [1]. - The closing prices of LME 3 - month nickel and LME 15 - month nickel also decreased, with decreases of 160 US dollars/ton and 227.39 US dollars/ton respectively. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 4,210 lots, a decrease of 1,463 lots compared with the previous day [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore changed little, and port inventories were stable. Some main production areas in Indonesia adjusted production, with a decrease in scheduled production and a downward expectation of metal volume. Domestic smelters continued to suffer losses, and production slightly recovered after seasonal maintenance [1]. - Demand side: The scheduled production of ternary materials decreased; the scheduled production of stainless - steel plants was stable and improving; the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained stable. As of April 2, the LME nickel inventory was 199,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 311 tons compared with the previous day [1]. Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume Information - On April 3, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai stainless - steel futures was 185,423 lots, an increase of 51,383 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest of the active contract was 98,312 lots, a decrease of 12,271 lots [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: The scheduled production of stainless - steel decreased slightly [1]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was gradually recovering [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel last week was 705,800 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons [1]. Cost - The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1].

Core Viewpoint - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing fluctuations due to inventory adjustments and varying demand, with expectations of continued low-price volatility in the near term [1] Glass Market Summary - The glass market is seeing strong production and sales driven by midstream inventory replenishment, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] - In March, the main glass futures contract closed at 1181 RMB/ton, down 67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.37% for the month [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market increased slightly to 1268 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 3.27 RMB/ton [1] - The production capacity utilization rate for float glass was 78.99%, with a total output of 1.1088 million tons [1] - Total inventory for float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.87% to 65.757 million heavy boxes [1] Soda Ash Market Summary - The soda ash market is witnessing a recovery in production and inventory levels as companies resume operations after maintenance [1] - In March, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1373 RMB/ton, down 196 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.49% for the month [1] - The production of soda ash reached 713,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [1] - Total inventory for soda ash manufacturers rose by 4.38% to 1.7014 million tons [1] Market Strategies - The strategy for the glass market is to maintain a volatile trading range, while the strategy for soda ash is to lean towards a weaker volatility [1] - There are no cross-variety or cross-period strategies currently in place [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...