Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Spot prices are still falling, but the decline is expected to slow down and gradually bottom out in October. Week 39 spot price was 1600 USD (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market). The WSK's opening quotation for the first week of October (Week 40) was 1400 USD, with a weekly decline of -150, more aggressive than market expectations. OOCL and YML also lowered their prices [2]. - On Tuesday, the far - month futures market rose significantly, driven by expectations of a slowdown in decline and approaching the bottom, as well as sentiment from Sino - US trade negotiations and the China - Europe Railway Express. However, it declined at the end of the session due to the MSK's 1400 opening quotation. The basis of the October contract was -10 points, almost at par with the spot price. The October - December spread was -504.1 (-11), and the December contract's valuation was relatively neutral and slightly high. There are multiple upward drivers in the future, so the December contract is cautiously bullish, with a neutral valuation and mainly driven by trading factors. The settlement price of the February 2026 contract may be high as the Spring Festival in 2026 is late (February 17, 2026), and its current valuation is low. The long - position allocation of the February contract has a higher cost - performance than that of the December contract. To avoid the potential price - cutting risk of shipping companies in October, a long - February and short - April spread trade can be arranged [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1169.7 with a 0.57% increase, EC2512 at 1673.8 with a 1.06% increase, EC2602 at 1572.1 with a 3.64% increase, EC2604 at 1283.7 with a 2.38% increase, and EC2606 at 1471.6 with a 2.77% increase. The October - December spread was -504.1 (-11), and the December - February 2026 spread was 101.7 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Price Index Changes**: The spot price index of the European line (including TELLAT, SCFI, CCFI, NCFI) has been declining. For example, the TELLAT index on September 15, 2025, was 1440.24, down 8.06% from the previous period and 12.24% from two periods ago [2]. Shipping Company Quotes - **Recent European Line Quotes**: In Week 38, the average quote was 1800 USD (equivalent to 1260 points on the futures market); in Week 39, it was 1600 USD (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market); in Week 40, MSK opened at 1400 USD, OOCL lowered to 1500 - 1550 USD, and YML lowered to 1400 USD [2][4]. Market News - **Geopolitical and Trade News**: The Israeli military expanded its ground military operation in Gaza City on September 17. The US Department of Commerce is considering imposing additional tariffs on more imported auto parts [4].

大家都知道，TikTok在美国一直面临着被禁止的风险，特朗普之前还曾多次延迟TikTok禁令，将TikTok"不卖就禁用"法案执行宽限期一延再延。 从最新的谈判结果来看，TikTok相关问题已经得到了初步解决。 而这次中美谈判似乎在TikTok问题上达成了一些共识，接下来美国大概率就要发布相关消息了。 自从特朗普加征关税以来，中美之间已经进行了四次谈判，而本次谈判的结果已经发布了。 TikTok作为一款非常受欢迎的社交媒体应用，在美国拥有大量的用户。如果TikTok真的被禁止，不仅会对美国的用户造成不便，也会对美国的科技产业和社 交媒体生态产生一定的影响。 所以，TikTok问题的初步解决，对于中美两国来说可能都是一个比较好的结果，也为中美贸易谈判增添了一些积极的因素。 虽然TikTok问题有了进展，但中美之间的贸易问题还很复杂，不仅仅是关税和TikTok问题，还有其他一些领域的分歧和摩擦。 不过，中美谈判最终还是从两国利益最大化出发，你好我好大家好，毕竟作为全球最大的两个经济体，其贸易直接会影响到全球经济的发展。 根据美国商务部普查局最新报告，今年 1 到 7 月，中美之间的货物贸易总额是 2709.84 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a more distinct long - term trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a focus on waiting and seeing [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, similar to pulp, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bias towards a short - term trend, with a driving force for price movement but limited market operability [1] - Timber: ★★★, representing a clear long - term trend and good investment opportunities [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★, also indicating a distinct long - term trend and suitable investment opportunities [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, short - term balance and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, price trends, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose slightly today, while cotton spot sales were poor and mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a rush for purchasing by ginning mills, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginning mills. The pure - cotton yarn market had average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, details of Sino - US trade negotiations should be watched. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices will likely remain volatile, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices were weak. In the short term, Brazilian sugar production decreased year - on - year, reducing supply pressure. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, although down significantly, remains at the upper end of the historical range, suggesting a potentially high sugar - making ratio in Brazil next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar prices declined. This year's sugar sales were fast, with lower inventory and less spot pressure. The market's focus has shifted to imports and the next season's production estimate. Syrup imports decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the 25/26 season's production is uncertain due to potential weather impacts [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. The demand for early - maturing apples was good, and spot market expectations for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October were high. However, the estimated apple production in the 25/26 quarter will change little year - on - year, lacking bullish drivers on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers are more optimistic, and the expected cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Short - term futures prices are expected to decline, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, MR, and BR prices fluctuated sharply. The futures market sentiment was positive. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable, and the synthetic rubber price increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - production season, with excessive rainfall in most Southeast Asian regions. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. The domestic tire operating rate increased significantly last week, with a slight decrease in all - steel tire inventory and a slight increase in semi - steel tire inventory. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 586,600 tons, while the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory rose to 134,000 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory dropped to 256,000 tons. Overall, demand has recovered, with an increase in natural rubber supply and a decrease in inventory, and a decrease in synthetic rubber supply and an increase in inventory. Cost support is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the Fed's interest - rate decision [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures prices declined slightly. The spot price of coniferous pulp was adjusted upward, while the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.062 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% decline. The inventory is still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. Macroeconomically, the CCPI in August was - 0.4% year - on - year and flat month - on - month, indicating weak inflation this year. The PPI showed marginal improvement, but the over - capacity in the mid - and downstream sectors hindered the price transmission. Currently, the domestic port inventory is high, pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and the spot price remained stable. Last week, the timber arrival volume decreased significantly. The New Zealand radiata pine price in September dropped by $2. The domestic spot price is weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The high foreign price also makes it difficult for the domestic price to improve, increasing traders' pressure, and imports are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. The domestic supply is expected to remain low. Demand is entering the peak season, but the export volume has not increased significantly. During the off - season, the daily出库 volume exceeded 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction was smooth. The total log inventory is low, with less inventory pressure. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand has not yet started, and short - term upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The September USDA supply - demand report lowered the US soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to reduce exports, resulting in the 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks of 300 million bushels slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the new US soybean balance sheet remains tight, supporting the downside of the US market. Recently, rumors of China - US trade negotiations have brought some positive impacts to the US market. After a short - term decline due to report data, the US market rebounded strongly. Also, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost expectations of the US market and premium, there is still some support for the downside of the domestic soybean meal. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high. This week, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and oil mills are eager to deliver, putting pressure on the spot premium. Overall, there is no substantial progress in China - US negotiations. The domestic soybean meal is expected to be supported by import costs and will mainly operate in a range. Future focus should be on China - US policy changes [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal主力合约 (Zhangjiagang), 43% soybean meal spot basis, rapeseed meal spot basis, etc. For example, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Dongguan is - 82 [5]. 2. Spread Data - Spread data such as M1 - RM1, M1 - 5, RM1 - 5, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in both spot and futures are provided. For example, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 900, with a change of 352 [6]. 3. Inventory Data - Inventory data of soybeans and soybean meal are shown, including China's port soybean inventory, major oil mills' soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil mills' soybean meal inventory. For example, the major oil mills' soybean meal inventory in 2025 is presented in the data [6]. 4.开机 and压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - The operating rate and soybean pressing volume of major oil mills are presented, showing the data from 2020 to 2025 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope, increasing short - term tariff risks. The market is preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week, leading to a weaker dollar and rising global risk appetite. Domestically, China's consumption, investment, and industrial增加值 in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with slowing domestic demand. The Ministry of Finance will advance the issuance of part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and take multiple measures to resolve existing implicit debts. Short - term external risk uncertainty is reduced, and domestic easing expectations are enhanced, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short - term upward macro - drive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; in the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious observation is needed; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious observation is required; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas, the US tariff risk increases, the dollar weakens, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, domestic demand slows, but policy expectations are positive, and domestic risk appetite also increases. The trading logic focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and the short - term macro - drive is upward [3]. - Asset trends: the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, black metals are short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating strongly, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels [3]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as small metals, precious metals, and military industry, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Domestic economic data is weak, but policy expectations are positive, and risk appetite increases. The trading logic focuses on policies and easing expectations, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound on Monday, but trading volume was low. Macroeconomic data in August was weak, increasing anti - involution expectations. Real - world demand is weak, with different trends among varieties. Supply has shown some changes, and the steel market is likely to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined slightly on Monday. Iron - making water production increased, and supply is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday. Supply is increasing slightly, and the market is in a state of game. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was strong on Monday. Supply is increasing, and the pattern of over - supply remains. Demand is weak, and it should be treated with a medium - to - long - term bearish view, while being vigilant about short - term positive impacts [6]. - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was strong on Monday. Supply is stable, and demand has limited growth. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors lead to a weaker dollar and a rise in copper prices. However, considering the global economic slowdown and weakening domestic demand, the upward space is limited [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices oscillated on Monday. Inventory increased unexpectedly, and the mid - term upward space is limited, with slow de - stocking expected [8]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by short - term factors, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose on Monday. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is expected to oscillate and stabilize [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon rose on Monday. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon fell slightly on Monday. With rumors of storage and capacity reduction, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is weighing measures to restrict Russian oil and supply - surplus expectations. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil facilities and the expected Fed rate cut provide short - term support for oil prices [12]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt rebounded with the rise in oil prices. The upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the follow - up with oil prices [13]. - **PX**: The price of PX rebounded slightly. It is in a tight pattern and is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rebounded slightly. Downstream and terminal开工 rates have different recovery situations, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol sector heated up slightly, but inventory increased, and downstream demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber adjusted slightly. Terminal orders increased seasonally, but the upward space is limited, and it can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. However, there are some supporting factors, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **PP**: Production decreased due to maintenance, and downstream demand improved, but supply is still loose. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. - **LLDPE**: Supply increased, and demand improved slightly. With low inventory and a weak market sentiment, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase. Demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term support may come from downstream replenishment [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans declined slightly. Export inspection data was better than expected, and Brazilian drought may support the market [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand situation is surplus. The supply pressure of soybean meal is large, and the price is expected to improve in late September and October. Rapeseed meal has high inventory, but there is an upward basis in the later period [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. The supply of rapeseed oil decreased. The production of palm oil in Malaysia is affected by floods, and domestic demand is weakening, with increasing inventory [20][21]. - **Corn**: The initial listing price of new - season corn is chaotic, with a slight year - on - year increase. The price is expected to be strong, and the futures price has low - valuation support [21]. - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter of large - scale pig farms increased in September, demand has no obvious increase, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be pressure on the price from October to November, which may promote capacity reduction [21].

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 15th, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to close at 3860.50 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.63% to 13005.77 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.52% to 3066.18 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2277.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4533.06, up 11.06 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 15th, the coke weighted index trended stronger in a fluctuating manner, closing at 1700.9, up 75.5. The coking coal weighted index was strong, closing at 1196.6 yuan, up 53.1. Coke is facing a second - round price cut. The current iron - water output is 2405500 tons, an increase of 117100 tons. The coke inventory is moderately high, and the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the futures market. The market has fully priced in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The supply at the mine end has recovered, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory is at a moderate level [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the rebound of US sugar on Friday and the stable spot price, the short - covering of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract led to an upward trend on Monday. The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated total sugar production in the US for the 2025/26 crushing season is 9.47 million short tons, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 16.2% [2]. Rubber - Boosted by factors such as the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices and the stabilization of crude oil prices, Shanghai rubber trended higher on Monday. The night - session fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. In July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production was 35884 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36.7%. As of the end of July 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory increased by 15.5% to 171061 tons [3]. Palm Oil - On September 15th, the palm oil futures fluctuated upward within the range. The main contract P2601 closed with a doji - like candlestick. The highest price was 9442, the lowest was 9318, and the closing price was 9422, up 1.36% from the previous day. From September 1 - 15th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 742648 tons, a 2.6% increase from the same period last month. As of September 12th, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 641500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22200 tons, or 3.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 128000 tons, or 24.92% [3]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 15th, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The seasonal harvest pressure is emerging. As of the week ending September 14th, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 63%, and the harvest rate is 5%, in line with market expectations. As of September 11th, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season has reached 0.12% of the expected total area, and drought in the central - western region may disrupt the sowing work. Domestically, on September 15th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 3042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2%. Currently, the import volume of soybeans is large, the supply is sufficient, the factory's operating rate is high, the crushing volume remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory continues to rise. However, due to the lack of a trade agreement between China and the US, there is still an expectation of tightened long - term soybean imports. Overall, the market is mixed with long and short factors, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [4]. Live Pigs - On September 15th, the main contract LH2511 closed at 13745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4%. In September, the production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs has increased, the group pig enterprises have a high slaughter plan, and the daily average slaughter has increased month - on - month. Although it is approaching the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption peak season, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term. The live - pig futures price may maintain a low - level volatile trend [5]. Shanghai Copper - The market believes that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 100%, and the market bets on three rate cuts this year, which keeps the US Treasury yield at a low level and supports the Shanghai copper price. Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia has stopped production due to wet - material blockage, and the resumption time is uncertain, which intensifies the global shortage of copper concentrates and is beneficial to copper prices. However, in the week ending September 12th, the social inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 14.91% to 94054 tons, reaching a two - and - a - half - month high, weakening the support of low inventory on prices. Currently, at a high copper price, downstream buyers are mainly on the sidelines, the rigid demand procurement is limited, the release of peak - season demand is weak, and the willingness to chase the price is limited. The upward pressure on copper prices persists. Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to run strongly in the short term but may face certain pressure at high levels [5]. Iron Ore - On September 15th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.31%, closing at 796 yuan. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume also decreased slightly. The supply has tightened, the iron - water output has returned to a high level, and steel mills still have the demand for replenishing stocks. The supply has decreased while the demand has increased, and the short - term iron ore price is in a volatile trend [6]. Asphalt - On September 15th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 fluctuated and closed lower, with a decline of 0.29%, closing at 3393 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased week - on - week, the asphalt manufacturers' shipment volume decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The inventory level remained flat week - on - week. Due to weather factors, the current demand shows the characteristic of a peak season without a peak, and the fundamental driving force is still limited. The short - term asphalt price will mainly operate in a volatile manner [6]. Cotton - On Monday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13910 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 118 lots compared with the previous trading day. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang is firm, which boosts market sentiment to a certain extent [6]. Logs - On September 15th, the log futures opened at 798.5, with a minimum of 794.5, a maximum of 806.5, and closed at 804.5, with an increase of 709 lots in positions. The futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average of 334. Pay attention to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 810. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Jiangsu is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Pay attention to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [6][7]. Steel - On September 15th, rb2601 closed at 3136 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3370 yuan/ton. From January to August, the industrial added value continued to grow rapidly, and the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed good momentum. However, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing have slowed down, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle, resulting in a slow improvement in steel demand during the "Golden September". The National Bureau of Statistics said that in the next stage, it will strengthen the governance of over - capacity in key industries, advocate against disorderly competition among enterprises, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. On Monday, the "double - coke" futures rose sharply, pushing up the cost and driving up the steel price. Considering the general balance of supply and demand in the steel market, the continuous rise of steel prices is questionable, and it may run slightly stronger in a volatile manner in the short term [8]. Alumina - On September 15th, ao2601 closed at 2935 yuan/ton. Although there is no new production capacity coming on - stream in September, due to the stable output of new production capacity added in the first half of the year and the continuous resumption of production of some enterprises' overhauled production lines, the spot supply will be further relaxed, increasing the downward pressure on market prices. In terms of demand, the operation of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants is relatively stable, the long - term order demand for alumina is relatively stable, but the spot bulk order transactions may weaken. With the increase in the delivery - warehouse capacity and the market - circulating spot, the downstream aluminum plants' willingness to bargain for lower prices when purchasing has increased [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 15th, al2510 closed at 21020 yuan/ton. The improvement of the global economic outlook and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts are important macro - factors supporting the rise of aluminum prices. The US dollar index has weakened periodically, which is beneficial to commodities priced in US dollars. The macro - environment continues to send positive signals, enhancing the market's optimistic sentiment towards the aluminum demand outlook. Domestic and foreign investors and traders have increased their purchases, driving up the aluminum price. As the National Day holiday approaches, the recovery of demand and the increase in the proportion of direct delivery of ingots to terminals will trigger a turning point in inventory. The domestic aluminum market is expected to start a destocking cycle, but whether this turning point is stable still needs further verification from subsequent data [9].

Group 1 - US stock market closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reaching both intraday and closing all-time highs [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Amazon up 1.44%, Meta up 1.21%, Apple up 1.12%, and Microsoft up 1.07%, while Nvidia fell 0.04% [1] - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, increased by 4.5%, closing with a market capitalization of $3.04 trillion, becoming the fourth US publicly traded company to surpass a $3 trillion market cap [1] Group 2 - Tesla shares rose 3.6% after CEO Elon Musk purchased 2.57 million shares for approximately $1 billion [1] - Nuclear power stocks saw significant gains, with Oklo up 15.7%, Nano Nuclear up 13%, and Uranium Energy up 10.6% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly increased, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 0.87%, and notable gains from Li Auto (over 6%), Bilibili (over 5%), NIO (over 4%), and XPeng (over 2%) [1] Group 3 - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.45, or 0.67%, closing at $67.44 per barrel [1] - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures increased by $0.61, or 0.97%, closing at $63.30 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.9%, closing at $3,719.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,724.9 per ounce [2]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion revolves around Nvidia's challenges in selling products in China due to U.S. regulations and the implications of antitrust accusations, highlighting the complex dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations and the semiconductor industry [1][2][5][8]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is currently unable to sell products in China, which is a significant market for them, due to restrictions imposed by the U.S. government [1][2][5]. - There is a strong demand for Nvidia's products in China, indicating potential upside if sales restrictions are lifted [5][13]. - The company is in a difficult position, caught between U.S. regulations and the desire to penetrate the Chinese market [2][4]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Strategic Moves - The ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China are seen as a strategic game, with Nvidia's situation being a piece on the chessboard of international relations [3][4]. - China is actively trying to leverage its position in trade discussions, including launching an anti-dumping investigation in the analog space [6][8]. - The relationship between the U.S. and China is characterized by national security concerns, which complicates the business environment for companies like Nvidia [9][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Nvidia - Upcoming earnings reports and product launches are critical for Nvidia, with particular attention on their Blackwell Ultra and GB300 parts [12][13]. - The company is expected to provide more insights into its next-generation product, Reuben, during the GTC event in March next year [14]. - Any easing of restrictions on doing business in China would be considered a positive development for Nvidia's financial outlook [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The September USDA supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield to 53.5 bushels per acre, with an adjustment less than expected. The demand side increased crushing and continued to lower exports, resulting in the ending inventory of U.S. soybeans in the 25/26 season at 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing a certain bearish impact. However, the balance sheet of the new U.S. soybean crop remains tight, supporting the downside of the U.S. soybean futures. Meanwhile, recent rumors of China - U.S. trade negotiations have had a certain bullish impact on the U.S. soybean futures. After a short - term decline due to loss data and short - selling, the U.S. soybean futures rebounded strongly. In addition, the Brazilian premium has declined. Considering the import cost of U.S. soybeans and the premium, it is expected to support the downside of the domestic soybean meal futures. [7] - In China, with the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the short - term supply pressure of domestic soybean meal is still high, and oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods, putting pressure on the spot basis. Overall, the domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be supported by the import cost and will mainly move in a range. Future focus should be on policy changes between China and the U.S. and between China and Canada. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Data on Basis - For soybean meal, the basis data in different regions on September 12, 2025 are as follows: in Dalian, it is 41; in Tianjin, - 39; in Rizhao, 29; in Zhangjiagang, 29; in Dongguan, - 99; in Zhanjiang, - 59; in Fangcheng, 9. For rapeseed meal in Guangdong, the basis is 56, with a change of - 28. [5] Spread Data - The M1 - RM1 spread is 259, with a change of - 20; the RM1 - 5 spread is 125, with a change of - 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the spread of the main futures contracts is 27. [6] Import and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan is 42.00. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium shows a certain trend, and the import soybean gross profit on the futures market is 305 yuan per ton, with a change of 5. [6] - The inventory data of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented, as well as the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises and the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills. [6] 开机和压榨情况 - The opening rate and soybean crushing volume data of major oil mills in different years from 2020 - 2025 are presented. [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: September 15, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang - Reviewer: Tang Yun Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed due to a public holiday. With the expected recovery of growth after the gradual improvement of export data, there is a chance for the crude palm oil futures to gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit. After stabilizing around 4,500 ringgit, there is an opportunity for the futures to start an upward trend, with a long - term bullish view [3]. - Domestic Market: Dalian palm oil futures are in a sideways trend. Affected by the closure of Malaysian palm oil futures, they will continue to trade in a range. After the Malaysian market resumes and the price exceeds 4,500 ringgit, Dalian palm oil futures may follow the upward trend. The view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones [3]. Soybean Oil - The resumption of Sino - US negotiations has no clear indication of China's potential purchase of US agricultural products, which supports Dalian soybean oil futures. However, the upcoming concentrated supply of US soybeans will pressure the global soybean market and have a negative impact on Dalian soybean oil. Domestically, the supply is sufficient while consumption is increasing. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to trade above 8,300 yuan, and there is a chance of an upward movement as international vegetable oil prices rise [4]. Bean Meal - Affected by the neutral - bearish US Department of Agriculture report and trade negotiations, market sentiment is under pressure, but the substantial negative impact is limited. The high premium of South American soybeans supports the import cost and limits the decline. In the short term, the main contract of Dalian bean meal will fluctuate between 3,030 - 3,080 yuan. The spot price will trade between 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton [17]. Price Summary Oil Price | Product | Unit | Price | Today's Change | Today's Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 234 | 18 | - | | Y - P 01 | Yuan/ton | - 974 | 20 | - | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 322 | 10 | - | | Y - P 05 | Yuan/ton | - 1044 | 44 | - | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 88 | - 28 | - | | Y - P 09 | Yuan/ton | - 986 | 192 | - | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 304 | 0 | - | | Y/M 01 | - | 2.7028 | 0% | - | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 380 | 0 | - | | Y/M 05 | - | 2.8433 | 0% | - | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 76 | 0 | - | | Y/M 09 | - | 2.778 | 0% | - | | OI 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 361 | 15 | - | | OI/RM 01 | - | 3.8945 | 1.05% | - | | OI 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 527 | - 51 | - | | OI/RM 05 | - | 3.9468 | 0% | - | | OI 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 166 | 36 | - | | OI/RM 09 | - | 3.9152 | - 0.39% | - | Palm Oil Price | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | P 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 234 | 18 | | P 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 322 | 10 | | P 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 88 | - 28 | | Palm Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 9422 | 1.36% | | Palm Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 9174 | 1.24% | | Palm Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8866 | - 5.52% | | BMD Palm Oil Main | Ringgit/ton | 4445 | - 0.2% | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | 9300 | 40 | | Guangzhou 24 - degree Basis | Yuan/ton | - 36 | 134 | | POGO | US dollars/ton | 494.425 | - 1.168 | | International毛豆 - 毛棕 | US dollars/ton | - 12.4 | 9.7 | Soybean Oil Price | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Today's Change (Rate) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Y 1 - 5 | Yuan/ton | 304 | 0 | | Y 5 - 9 | Yuan/ton | - 380 | 0 | | Y 9 - 1 | Yuan/ton | 76 | 0 | | Soybean Oil 01 | Yuan/ton | 8376 | - 1.2% | | Soybean Oil 05 | Yuan/ton | 8076 | - 0.57% | | Soybean Oil 09 | Yuan/ton | 8026 | - 3.44% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main | Cents/pound | 52.12 | 0.99% | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8460 | 0 | | Shandong First - grade Soybean Oil Basis | Yuan/ton | 138 | 84 | | BOHO (Weekly) | US dollars/barrel | 52.14 | - 11.3288 | | Domestic First - grade Soybean Oil - 24 - degree Palm Oil | Yuan/ton | - 610 | - 30 | Oilseed Futures Price | Product | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Bean Meal 01 | 3042 | - 37 | - 1.2% | | Bean Meal 05 | 2804 | - 16 | - 0.57% | | Bean Meal 09 | 2919 | - 104 | - 3.44% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2504 | - 27 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2393 | - 13 | - 0.54% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2462 | - 98 | - 3.83% | | CBOT Yellow Soybean | 1045.25 | 0 | 0% | | Offshore RMB | 7.12 | - 0.0021 | - 0.03% | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spread | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 259 | 0 | RM01 - 05 | 125 | - 22 | | M05 - 09 | - 203 | 19 | RM05 - 09 | - 154 | - 24 | | M09 - 01 | - 56 | 1 | RM09 - 01 | 29 | 46 | | Bean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3000 | 0 | Bean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 79 | 29 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2515 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 16 | 36 | | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 485 | 20 | Bean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 548 | 0 |