有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 2025/06/12 95 990 107404 32785 -642.66 374.84 38.0 60.0 85.51 116850 68125 变化 5 -113 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-13投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7954，基差266，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，下半年的运输板块挑战与机遇并存。目前市场对于部分周期 底部行业给予了较为悲观的预期，但这也正是周期行业的机会所在。价格竞争是行业的正常现象，去年 以来政府部门对于反内卷的日益重视，则体现出国家希望为行业的价格竞争行为划定一条底线。交运板 块中，航空板块自疫情后持续亏损，24年还出现了较明显的票价下降;快递板块24年起价格战烈度明显 加剧，目前也已经持续了较长时间。两者盈利都长期受价格竞争的影响。 长期看，任何行业都需要合理的利润，长期处于微利或亏损状态不利于行业健康发展。因此该行认为， 对于价格竞争较为激烈的领域，需要重点关注行业基本面和政策调控带来的变化，行业价格端的触底回 升会带来较强的盈利弹性。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 快递：通达系价格战进入深水区，重视左侧配置价值 今年快递板块的价格战烈度较高，中通与圆通两家头部企业同时加大对市场份额的争夺力度，对行业后 续的价格水平大概率形成一定冲击。受价格战烈度加剧的影响，一季度行业整体表现为利润下降。若将 盈利拆解为件量乘以单票净利润，则表现为件量增长无法完全对冲单票盈利下降造成的影响。 与业绩的压力相对的是，目前市场对快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction by Guo Fengming, the controlling shareholder of Kanda, raises concerns about the company's long-term value despite the stock price resilience and positive earnings growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: Share Reduction Details - Guo Fengming's share reduction plan, which was first disclosed on February 17, 2025, involved a maximum reduction of 3% of shares, with a total of 512.26 million shares sold, amounting to approximately 57.39 million yuan [2]. - Since March 2023, Guo has cumulatively reduced 15.33 million shares, cashing out over 203 million yuan, decreasing his holding from 51.92% to 45% while still maintaining control [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Institutional Involvement - During the share reduction period, Kanda's stock price increased, reaching a high of 12.24 yuan, contrasting with the slight rise of the Shanghai Composite Index [2]. - Institutional investors showed a net buying of 34.14 million yuan on the same day as the reduction, indicating a complex market dynamic of shareholder selling and institutional buying [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Operational Concerns - Kanda reported a revenue of 81.26 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of 31.98 million yuan, up 20.88%, and a maintained gross margin of 44% [4]. - However, operational efficiency is a concern, with accounts receivable turnover at only 0.19 times and inventory turnover at 0.21 times, indicating low operational efficiency [4]. Group 4: Investor Insights and Strategic Considerations - The situation illustrates the coexistence of shareholder reduction and institutional buying, suggesting that the impact of single signals in the market is diminishing [5]. - Investors should monitor the implementation of policies such as the "Lightweight Development Plan for Rail Transit Equipment" expected at the end of June, which may influence the sector [5]. - The reduction in shareholder numbers, currently at 17,100, down 12% from peak levels, indicates increased concentration of shares, which may heighten stock price volatility [5].

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1373.5 | 1364.5 | 9.0 | JM2601 | 793.0 | 791.5 | 15 | 101基金 | -66.4 | -57.4 | -9.0 | | 12605 | 1374.0 | 0.686T | -9.0 | JM2605 | 813.0 | 819.0 | -6.0 | 105基差 | -66.9 | -75.9 | 9.0 | | 12509 | 0'956T | 0.6FET | 7.0 | 80952WIE | 783.5 | 785.0 | -1.5 | 100 查会 | 687- | -41.9 | -7.0 | | 109-101 ...

2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 铝：关注中美谈判进展 | 5 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡，关注库存 | 7 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 8 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 9 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势，上方空间有限 | 15 | | 多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 25 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,680 | 920 | 600 | 760 | -1,340 | -14,060 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 236,197 | 31,417 | -177,042 | -156,272 | -53,205 | 229,418 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 178,235 | -16,496 | -67,415 | -115,460 | -112,068 | 143,911 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收 ...

张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | | | | | | | | | | 上游价格 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6月11日 6月10日 涨跌 张跌幅 单位 品种 6月11日 6月10日 涨跌 旅跌幅 | | | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 布伦特原油(8月) 69.77 66.87 2.90 4.3% POY150/48价格 6880 6880 0 0.0% | 美元/桶 | | | | | | | | | | | | WTI原油(7月) 68.15 64.98 3.17 4.9% FDY150/96价格 7160 7160 0 0.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 574 -0.3% 8120 0 0.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4279 4271 8 0.2% 元/吨 92.1% 93.2% EG期货2601 直纺短纤开工率 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of dividend-themed funds as a key investment tool for investors amid a global preference for safe-haven assets and recent interest rate cuts by the central bank [1][2] - The central bank's recent adjustment of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and significant reductions in deposit rates have led to a decrease in household savings, prompting a renewed interest in dividend assets and related funds [1] - The Guangfa Stable Strategy fund, managed by Yang Dong, has achieved a return of 11.16% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the benchmark index, which only rose by 2.19% during the same period [1] Group 2 - Yang Dong is recognized for pioneering fundamental quantitative strategies in fund management, combining active stock selection with quantitative models to create a stable, outperforming equity fund [2] - The "active + quantitative" strategy involves subjective analysis for identifying trends and deep dives into individual stock fundamentals, while quantitative strategies utilize style factors to uncover patterns and enhance stock selection [2] - The team led by Yang Dong includes researchers with quantitative backgrounds, contributing to the development of specific style sub-strategies that provide flexibility in the fund's portfolio [2] Group 3 - The Guangfa Stable Strategy fund's holdings reflect a distinctive "active concentration + quantitative dispersion" approach, with a focus on a few concentrated top holdings while maintaining a diversified portfolio [3] - The fund has significantly increased its exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with a notable presence of H-shares in its top holdings, which tend to offer higher dividend yields compared to A-shares [3] - In the first quarter of 2025, the fund underwent a rebalancing, introducing six new stocks across various sectors, demonstrating its broad industry coverage and flexible adjustment capabilities [4]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a strong rebound in financing this year, driven by several key factors [1] Group 1: Key Factors Driving IPO Market - Policy incentives have played a significant role in boosting the Hong Kong IPO market [1] - The resurgence of technology stocks has led to a revaluation of Chinese assets [1] - The quality of IPO candidates has improved, attracting long-term capital back to the market [1]