Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The short - term stock index is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold and silver prices are affected by Sino - US trade relations, US government shutdown, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, showing different trends [1]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to continued fermentation of copper supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate, with alumina facing weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are supported by short - term export windows, while nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - demand conditions [1]. - Tin prices have long - term opportunities for bottom - fishing due to supply risks and demand support [1]. - Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and other chemical products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. - Black metal prices are generally volatile, with supply - demand contradictions and seasonal impacts [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and demand seasons [1]. - Shipping freight rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong and volatile, beware of tariff policy fluctuations, focus on the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1]. - Gold: High - level decline due to Sino - US trade easing, but expected to be volatile due to factors such as US government shutdown and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: High - level decline, short - term short - side volatile, pay attention to physical tightness in London [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to remain strong due to supply disturbances and improved macro - liquidity [1]. - Aluminum: Fundamentals are mixed, price expected to fluctuate [1]. - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, pay attention to cost support [1]. - Zinc: Supported by short - term export windows, but subsequent disturbances still exist [1]. - Nickel: Short - term macro - dominated volatility, high - inventory suppression exists [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term volatility, pay attention to short - term trading opportunities [1]. - Tin: Long - term bottom - fishing opportunities due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Chemical products - Industrial silicon: Northwest production resumes, polycrystalline silicon production increases in October, organic silicon demand is weak [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Supply increases and demand decreases in October, policy impact fades [1]. Black metals - Steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil): Industry drivers are unclear, valuation is low, not recommended for directional trading [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month limited by production restrictions, far - month has upward potential [1]. - Others (such as coking coal, coke, glass, soda ash): Generally volatile, facing supply - demand contradictions and price pressure [1]. Agricultural products - Vegetable oils (such as palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels, with different trading suggestions [1]. - Grains and oilseeds (such as corn, soybean meal): Affected by trade policies, supply - demand, and weather, with corresponding outlooks [1]. - Others (such as cotton, sugar, pulp, etc.): Different price trends and trading strategies based on their own fundamentals [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil: Bearish due to OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical cooling, demand off - season, and US tariff threats [1]. - Other energy - related products (such as LPG, etc.): Affected by various factors and showing different price trends [1]. - Chemical products (such as ethylene glycol, styrene, etc.): Affected by supply - demand, inventory, and production factors [1]. Others - Shipping: Container shipping rates may stop falling and stabilize [1]. - Livestock: Pig prices are expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalance [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In October, the domestic soybean market is in the peak season of new - crop harvest and listing, with a temporary increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous. The supply - side increase is more obvious, and the price is under pressure. However, the market sentiment is not pessimistic, and the price decline space is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the risks of price decline caused by the exit of long - position funds due to the cooling of Sino - US trade policy game [3][7][8]. - In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has driven up the futures price, and the price of Northeast China's soybean has stopped falling. But the new - crop supply factor will lead to price decline without policy intervention. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient throughout the fourth - quarter market, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts may show a downward - trending shock. The far - month contracts have the potential to rise after reaching the bottom [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand situation**: In October, the new - crop soybeans are in the peak harvest and listing season, with a significant increase in supply. The demand is in the transition stage of turning prosperous, and the supply - side is more dominant, resulting in price pressure [3]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation and the stable spot sentiment in Northeast China have driven up the price. But the new - crop supply may lead to price decline. In the long - term, the new - crop supply will be sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the far - month contracts have potential [7]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The short - selling trend has changed, and the price faces pressure from medium - and long - term moving averages [8]. - **Strategy views**: For those with low - price inventory, consider short - selling the 01 contract on rallies. For planting entities, the 2511 short - hedging strategy should be closed when selling the spot [8]. - **Basis, spread and hedging arbitrage strategy**: During the new - crop listing period, the spot and futures prices may fall simultaneously. The spot price is at the bottom - grinding stage. The near - month contracts are more affected by the new - crop listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policy purchase and improved demand. Pay attention to the spread between near - and far - month contracts and consider the strategy of selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction for the 01 contract**: The price range is predicted to be 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.84% and a historical percentile of 15.3% [8]. - **Risk strategy**: For inventory management, planting entities can lock in profits by short - selling futures or selling call options. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has led to some funds going long [10]. - **Negative information**: In October, the new - crop soybeans in Northeast China are in the peak listing season, putting pressure on the price. The quality and price of soybeans in different regions vary. Two domestic soybean auctions have failed [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On the 21st, Sinograin will hold a domestic soybean auction with a trading volume of 40,422 tons. Pay attention to the possible turning point of Sino - US trade situation, the trend of the US government shutdown, and the release of the US Department of Agriculture's October supply - demand report [11]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The soybean price has rebounded for the second consecutive week. In October, the deterioration of Sino - US trade situation has stimulated the price to rise. The main 01 contract has seen significant trading volume increase, with a gain of over 2% and closing at 4028 yuan. The registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 7290 lots, and the positions and trading volume have increased [11]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot price of domestic soybeans has stopped falling, while the futures price is relatively strong, and the basis has weakened. The 11 - contract is relatively weak, and the overall spread change is not obvious [18][20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Planting end**: The price of 39 - protein clean soybeans in Heilongjiang has rebounded, and the planting cost has decreased, resulting in increased planting profits. The grassroots may have a certain degree of reluctance to sell, which may prolong the price - bottoming time [27]. - **Mid - stream**: The willingness of trading enterprises to store soybeans has increased, but the profit is uncertain [27]. - **Down - stream**: The downstream demand is active, mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. High - protein soybeans are favored, and the price is firm. The crushing profit has rebounded, and oil mills may increase their purchase volume [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - side and Deduction - **Overall supply**: In October - November, the supply will reach its peak, and the low point of the spot - futures price may form during this period. The price performance may be relatively mild due to factors such as low selling willingness and increased inventory - holding willingness of the mid - and down - stream [30]. - **Supply structure**: Affected by the promotion of high - oil varieties, the proportion of medium - and low - protein soybeans may increase. High - protein soybeans have mid - term competitiveness, and high - oil soybeans depend on the purchase volume of oil mills [30]. 5.2 Demand - side and Deduction - **Demand factors**: In October, the edible consumption market is turning from off - season to peak season, and the crushing demand may increase when the raw material price falls. The policy may activate the domestic soybean crushing demand, but there is great uncertainty [30]. - **Market outlook**: The edible market is the basic demand for soybeans, and the crushing market is the major variable. The overall price will fluctuate, and pay attention to the formation of the fourth - quarter low point and the price - decline risk caused by Sino - US economic and trade situation changes [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the significant adjustment of precious metal prices on the night of last Friday, they may turn to a volatile trend due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the mitigation of political turmoil in Japan. However, due to the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in October, precious metal prices are unlikely to continue to decline. Silver may face further adjustment risks if the physical shortage in London eases [6]. - In the long - term, the gold price is likely to continue to rise as the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, US debt is unsustainable, and central banks around the world continue to buy gold. Long - term investors are advised to go long on dips [6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On October 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 3.82% at 999.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.06% at 12,249 yuan/kilogram [3][5]. b) Price and Spread Data - **Price Changes**: From October 16 to 17, London spot gold rose 3.2% to 4360.01 dollars/ounce, London spot silver rose 2.6% to 54.21 dollars/ounce. COMEX gold rose 3.2% to 4372.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 2.3% to 53.15 dollars/ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2512) rose 3.5% to 999.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures (AG2512) rose 1.9% to 12249.00 yuan/kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price changed from - 1.82 yuan/gram on October 16 to - 2.8 yuan/gram on October 17, with a change rate of 53.8%. The spread of silver TD - SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kilogram to - 29 yuan/kilogram, with a change rate of 7.4% [5]. c) Position and Inventory Data - **Position Changes**: From October 16 to 17, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold increased by 1.85% to 332,808 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43% to 66,059 contracts. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver increased by 0.97% to 72,318 contracts, and the non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% to 20,042 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: From October 16 to 17, SHFE gold inventory increased by 4.50% to 84,606 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6.33% to 920,103 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 39,107,098 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.53% to 509,459,321 troy ounces [5]. d) Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On October 17, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.09, the US dollar index was 98.56, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.46%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.02%, the VIX was 20.78, the S&P 500 was 6664.01, and NYWEX crude oil was 57.25 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the uncertain Sino - US trade negotiations with marginal improvement in sentiment, tight copper raw material supply, and improved downstream consumption as prices fall [2][3]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term. Although Sino - US trade tensions are uncertain, sentiment is warming up. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases also support aluminum prices [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term as lead ore port inventories rise, smelting开工率 remains high, and downstream demand improves, leading to continuous inventory reduction [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [10][11]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short - term. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 and government crackdown on illegal mining, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices may be affected in the short - term by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range in the short - term. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be watched in the short - term. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [25][26]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **行情资讯**: On October 18, LME copper closed down 0.12% to $10,607/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 84,890 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 225 to 137,225 tons. Domestic copper spot import losses narrowed, and the refined - scrap spread decreased [2]. - **策略观点**: Short - term copper prices may be strong. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment is improving. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption has improved [3]. Aluminum - **行情资讯**: On October 18, LME aluminum closed down 0.63% to $2,778/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,925 yuan/ton. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the market was cautious [5]. - **策略观点**: Short - term aluminum prices may oscillate strongly. Sino - US trade tensions may ease, inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases support aluminum prices [6]. Lead - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton. Various lead - related prices and inventory data are provided [8]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lead prices may be strong. Lead ore port inventories are rising, smelting开工率 is high, and downstream demand is improving, leading to inventory reduction [9]. Zinc - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% to 21,836 yuan/ton. Various zinc - related prices and inventory data are provided, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [10]. - **策略观点**: Short - term zinc prices may be weak. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [11]. Tin - **行情资讯**: On October 17, SHFE tin closed down 0.21% to 280,750 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and government crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some areas is improving marginally [13]. - **策略观点**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate. Supply is tight, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season. It is recommended to watch [14]. Nickel - **行情资讯**: On October 18, SHFE nickel closed down 0.09% to 121,160 yuan/ton. Nickel iron prices are weak, and refined nickel inventories are high [15]. - **策略观点**: Short - term nickel prices may be affected by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: On October 17, the MMLC spot index rose 2.75%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and lithium concentrate prices also rose [19]. - **策略观点**: Short - term lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [20]. Alumina - **行情资讯**: On October 17, the alumina index rose 0.36% to 2,809 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong decreased, and the import window is closed. Futures inventories decreased [22]. - **策略观点**: Short - term alumina prices are recommended to be watched. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On October 18, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw material prices changed slightly. Social inventories decreased [25]. - **策略观点**: Short - term stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: On October 18, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.49% to 20,390 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream prices were stable, and inventories decreased slightly [28]. - **策略观点**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [29].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having varying supply - demand relationships and price trends. The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal demand changes [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakens again after a short - term recovery, and the market trading atmosphere is average [2] - PE supply pressure increases, and terminal demand is limited. PP has more maintenance devices, but supply remains loose, and demand support is insufficient [2] Polyester - PX price rebounds, driving downstream products up. PTA supply is expected to increase, and overall PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. In the short - term, prices may stabilize, but in the medium - term, they may continue to be weak [3] - Ethylene glycol domestic operation declines slightly, and the port continues to accumulate inventory. The impact of Sino - US trade on hexanediol is positive [3] - Short fiber follows the raw material to rebound. Spot is firm, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound, but the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline. Styrene supply is sufficient, and terminal demand support is worrying [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply rhythm is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to port inventory changes. Urea supply is loose, and the market is likely to continue to be weak [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure and export challenges. Caustic soda shows a marginal improvement trend, and the decline of futures price is expected to be limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to accumulate inventory, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Glass may rise due to supply - side news despite weak current reality [8]

Report Introduction - The report is the Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 16, 2025, written by Bian Shuyang and research assistant Kang Quangui [1][2] Price Forecast and Risk Strategy Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.53% and a historical percentile of 16.8% [3] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long - spot positions like planting subjects with high new - bean selling needs in autumn but facing large selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 Soybean No. 1 futures contract at a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050. Also, for the situation of concentrated listing and weakened seller bargaining power, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a 30% ratio when the price is between 30 - 50 [3] - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short - spot positions worried about rising raw material prices, it is advisable to mainly wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 contracts [3] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations have driven up the futures price, with the main 2601 contract breaking through the 4000 - yuan mark and the near - month 11 contract approaching it. However, the spot price has not risen in sync, leading to a weaker basis and theoretical delivery profit on the futures. Imported soybeans are currently in sufficient supply, and the support from the future shortage of imported soybeans for domestic soybeans needs time to materialize. New - grain listing pressure remains, and there is a risk of price decline above 4000 yuan. The current domestic soybean market is in the peak harvest and listing season, with ample supply and significant price pressure. Low - protein new - season soybeans are weakly priced, and prices may continue to fall. State reserve purchases are likely in a wait - and - see stage [4] 利多 Factors - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations provide emotional support for domestic soybeans - There are expectations for state reserve procurement policies - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in two - way auctions provides short - term market support [4] 利空 Factors - During the new - grain listing period, the spot price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [4] Price and Market Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 15, 2025, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan/ton with a basis of - 119; in Nenjiang, it was 3820 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133; in Jiamusi, it was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 53; and in Changchun, it was 3950 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3 [4] Futures Closing Price - On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 11 contract was 3981 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 01 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.81%; the 03 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 05 contract was 4032 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.60%; the 07 contract was 4030 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.55%; and the 09 contract was 4033 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.57% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [5] - Protein Meals: Oscillating [5] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating weakly [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Cotton: Oscillating weakly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating weakly [14] - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16] - Offset Paper: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall sentiment in the agricultural market has improved, but the trends are differentiated. For example, NR in natural rubber has rebounded significantly, while other varieties show different degrees of oscillation or weak trends [1][9]. - Due to various factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and weather, different agricultural products face different market situations. Some are affected by short - term policies and show short - term rebounds, while others are suppressed by long - term supply and demand and show weak trends [7][13]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: May continue to oscillate, waiting for further information. Due to the uncertainty of US soybean demand, the US soybean and soybean oil markets are in a state of oscillation. The domestic oil market is also affected by factors such as the US government "shutdown", trade situation, and production expectations of Brazil [5]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the US government "shutdown", the repeated Sino - US trade situation, and the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut affect the market. From an industrial perspective, the suspension of US soybean data updates, the expected reduction of US soybean exports, the expected increase in Brazilian soybean production, and the slow de - stocking of domestic soybean oil all contribute to the oscillation of the oil market [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The market continues to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the changes in Sino - US trade relations. - **Logic**: Internationally, the harvest of US soybeans is progressing smoothly, but the export prospects are not good. Brazil's soybean sowing progress is fast. Domestically, the short - term downstream inventory is not low, and the supply pressure is large. In the long term, the supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, while rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal [5]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: The State Council's guidance to actively enter the market for procurement boosts sentiment, and the futures price rebounds. - **Logic**: The price of domestic corn is running weakly. The pressure of new grain listing is still there, but the launch of reserve grain procurement provides some support. In the long term, the corn market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: A small amount of second - fattening pigs enter the market, and the pig price rebounds at a low level. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure continues to increase, and the demand enters the off - season after the National Day. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy to reduce production is implemented, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [7][8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The sentiment has improved, but the trends are differentiated. NR has rebounded significantly. - **Logic**: The performance of NR is stronger than that of RU. The reasons include the low import volume of standard rubber, few warehouse receipts, and strong raw materials. The demand is expected to remain stable, and the macro factors have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to wait and see or continue to pay attention to narrowing the spread [1][9][10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Driven by natural rubber, it rebounds slightly. - **Logic**: The BR futures price follows the trend of NR. The high production volume throughout the year is a major pressure on the futures price. The growth rate of demand is lower than that of production, and the social inventory remains high. The raw material price is weak, and the supply is abundant, so the price is difficult to improve significantly [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The expected increase in China's cotton production in the 25/26 season has led to a decline in the futures price. After the National Day, the decline has slowed down. Future attention should be paid to the purchase price of new cotton, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the actual production of new cotton [12][13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price continues to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: Internationally, the export volume of Brazilian sugar is increasing, and the international trade flow is loose. Domestically, the import volume is high, the sales are average, and the industrial inventory is increasing. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have an oversupply in the 25/26 season [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The weak rebound continues. - **Logic**: The futures price of pulp has increased due to the large virtual - to - real ratio of the 01 contract and the possible shortage of deliverable warehouse receipts. However, there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, and the positive factors in the industrial end have limited driving force [15][16]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: It oscillates in a narrow range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of offset paper have not changed significantly. The publishing tenders in Shandong and Jiangsu are starting, and there is pressure to reduce prices. The supply is increasing, and the demand is limited, so the paper price may decline slightly after the festival [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Affected by the delivery side, the futures price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The main contradictions in the log market are the negative impact of domestic timber delivery in Chongqing and the failure of the peak - season expectation in the fundamentals. The demand is weak, the inventory is not low, and the willingness of buyers to take delivery is not strong. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 790 - 840 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The NOPA's monthly crushing report shows that the soybean oil inventory at the end of September dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, down 0.2% month - on - month, hitting a nine - month low, but up 16.6% year - on - year and higher than market expectations [2] - Indian vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from 1,677,346 tons in August, with palm oil imports dropping significantly from 990,528 tons in August to 829,017 tons [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed up. The US is working to ease trade tensions, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. The 10 - month USDA supply - demand report is postponed due to the government shutdown. The domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the upward movement of domestic meal prices [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed oil was weak, while palm oil closed up. The MPOB report shows that September Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.7% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the oil market may be under pressure, but in the long - term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production - reduction season and biodiesel policies will support oil consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8252, 9322, and 9932 respectively, with changes of 12, - 8, and - 27 and percentage changes of 0.15%, - 0.09%, and - 3.15% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread changed from - 296 to - 320, and the M9 - 1 spread changed from - 85 to - 74 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4350 ringgit/ton, 1007 cents/bu, 51 cents/lb, and 276 dollars/ton respectively, with changes of - 70, 1, 0, and 1 and percentage changes of - 1.58%, 0.07%, 0.51%, and 0.40% [1] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have changed. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8450 and 8540 respectively, with a percentage change of - 0.12% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spreads between different spot products have also changed. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - **Profit Changes**: The import and crushing profits of various products have changed. For example, the profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil changed from - 417 to - 379 [1] Warehouse Receipts - **Quantity Changes**: The quantity of warehouse receipts for some products has changed. For example, the quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts changed from 25,444 to 26,294 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the protein meal market, overnight soybean meal closed up in a volatile manner, while rapeseed meal closed slightly down. The US is working to ease trade tensions with China, alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Although the market strongly anticipates a downward adjustment of US soybean yield per unit in the October USDA report, the report has been postponed due to the US government shutdown. With frequent market news, US soybean futures prices are mainly fluctuating. Domestically, the impact of tariffs on the market is weakening, and sufficient domestic supply still poses significant pressure on the short - term upward movement of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - In the oil market, overnight oils showed weak performance. The MPOB September supply - demand report indicated that Malaysian palm oil production in September was 1.841 million tons, a 0.73% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.428 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase, basically in line with market expectations. By the end of September, Malaysian palm oil inventory was 2.3609 million tons, a 7.2% month - on - month increase. The MPOB report shows that inventory accumulation is higher than expected, and uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market. However, in the medium to long term, the Southeast Asian production area will enter the production reduction season, and international biodiesel policies will continue to support oil consumption demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8240, 9330, 9959, 2902, 2388, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were - 28, - 34, - 63, - 30, - 12, and 26, with percentage changes of - 0.34%, - 0.36%, - 3.15%, - 1.02%, - 0.50%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is now - 320 (previous value - 296), and the M9 - 1 spread is now - 74 (previous value - 85) [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4420 ringgit/ton, 1006 cents/bushel, 51 cents/pound, and 275 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were - 53, - 2, 0, and 0, with percentage changes of - 1.18%, - 0.20%, 0.08%, and 0.11% respectively [1]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8460, with a - 0.12% change [1]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads between different spot products have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is now - 560 (previous value - 590) [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 417 (previous value - 465) [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of various products have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current warehouse receipts of palm oil are 500 (previous value 1570) [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - As of the week ending October 10, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.89 per bushel, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average crushing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [2]. - Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) released the 2025/26 annual supply - demand report, predicting that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast of 177.67 million tons but a 3.6 - percentage - point increase from the 2024/25 season. The US Department of Agriculture's forecast is 175 million tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that palm oil prices will fluctuate at a low level. Although the Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and there is a large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil during the October production season, which suppresses prices, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Therefore, investors are advised to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review The report presents a chart of the average price trend of 24 - degree palm oil (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of the price trend is provided [4]. 2. Supply Situation Analysis The report shows a chart of China's palm oil import data, but no detailed analysis of the supply situation is given [6]. 3. Demand Situation Analysis The report provides a chart of the statistical average transaction price of palm oil (yuan/ton), but does not offer in - depth analysis of the demand situation [8]. 4. Cost - Profit Analysis The report includes a chart of palm oil import costs and profits (yuan/ton), but no specific analysis of cost - profit is presented [11]. 5. Market Outlook The Sino - US trade situation is uncertain, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the increase in risks has led to an enhanced risk - aversion sentiment among funds, resulting in continuous reduction of palm oil positions. The large inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil and the October production season suppress palm oil prices. However, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may reach an inflection point, and the progress of Indonesian biodiesel provides support at the bottom. Thus, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and investors should look for opportunities to go long at low prices [2][13].