Group 1 - In June 2025, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, recovering from 4.8% in the previous month, with a month-on-month growth rate of 2.9%, slightly exceeding seasonal levels [1] - Exports to ASEAN countries rose to 16.82%, an increase of approximately 2 percentage points from the previous month, while exports to Africa grew by 34.8%, up about 1.5 percentage points [1] - The industrial added value in June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, driven by a significant increase in export delivery value, which rose by 4.0% [2] Group 2 - The retail sales of consumer goods in June grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in the restaurant sector and other factors [2] - Fixed asset investment growth remained low, indicating a need for potential favorable policies in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2] - The central urban work conference emphasized a human-centered approach to urban development, focusing on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model [2]

Export Performance - In June, China's export growth showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, surpassing the expected 3.21% and the five-year average of 4.14% by 1.66 percentage points[8] - The marginal improvement in exports to the US was significant, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.3%, an increase of 18.39 percentage points from the previous value[10] - Exports to ASEAN countries also improved, with a growth rate of 16.74%, up 5.31 percentage points from the previous value[11] Import Performance - June imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and the previous value by 4.5 percentage points[19] - The improvement in imports was primarily driven by increased imports from Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN, with positive contributions from these regions[22] Future Outlook - The extension of the US tariff exemption until August 1 may limit the recovery of China's export growth to the US in the second half of the year, creating downward pressure on exports[26] - If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates in September, it could lead to a structural market rally in July, despite potential export slowdowns[28] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of policies remain key risks that could impact market stability[29]

Core Viewpoint - China's export resilience in June exceeded expectations, reflecting a slight improvement in export growth in Q2 compared to Q1, driven by the "expedited shipping" effect ahead of the expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" exemption and a recovery in the global manufacturing cycle [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In June, China's exports were supported by short-term "rush export" demand as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariff" exemption approached on July 9 [1] - The overall export growth rate in Q2 showed a slight strengthening, indicating improved competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [1] Group 2: Import Trends - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of imports in dollar terms increased by 4.5 percentage points from May to 1.1%, primarily driven by improvements in upstream imports and the "de-escalation" of tariffs between the US and China [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, the "rush export" phenomenon may partially deplete demand, and the upward adjustment of US tariffs could impact imports, leading to a slight decrease in the overall year-on-year export growth rate in Q3 [1] - However, the recent increase in US tariffs on the EU and Mexico may enhance the relative competitiveness of Chinese exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for June and the second quarter suggests a low but stable growth trajectory, with GDP growth expected around 5.3% in Q2, supported by new domestic policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: GDP and Economic Growth - Q2 GDP growth is projected at approximately 5.3%, with industrial production growth expected at 5.9% due to equipment upgrades and resilient exports [4][11]. - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound, with wholesale and retail expected to grow by 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1 [4][11]. - High growth is expected in the information and leasing service sectors [4]. Group 2: Production Sector - June industrial production growth is expected to be around 6.0%, with a PMI production index increase to 51% [5][15]. - Truck traffic on highways shows a growth of 2.0% in June, improving from previous months [5][15]. - The automotive wholesale growth rate is projected at 14.1%, indicating strong performance in the automotive manufacturing sector [5][15]. Group 3: Demand Side - Retail sales growth is expected to temporarily decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities [6][20]. - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to decrease to approximately 3.4% for the first half of the year, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2% [6][19]. - June export growth is expected to be around 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1% [7][17]. Group 4: Financial Sector - New social financing in June is expected to reach 3.8 trillion, an increase of 600 billion compared to the previous year, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% for social financing stock [8][21]. - M2 money supply is expected to grow by approximately 7.9% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 2.9% [8][21]. - Government and corporate bond issuance is expected to total around 1.8 trillion in June, with significant net financing increases compared to the previous year [8][21].

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is expected to be around 5.3%, close to Q1's 5.4%[3] - Industrial production growth for Q2 is projected at approximately 5.9%[3] - Retail sector growth is anticipated to rebound to about 6.8% in Q2, up from 5.8% in Q1[3] Production Insights - June's industrial growth rate is estimated at 6.0%[11] - The PMI production index for June increased to 51%, indicating expansion[4] - The wholesale growth rate for automobiles in June is expected to be 14.1%[4] Demand and Investment Trends - Social retail sales growth is projected to decline to around 4.6% in June, influenced by holiday timing and promotional activities[20] - Fixed asset investment growth for the first half of the year is expected to be around 3.4%, with manufacturing investment at 8.1% and real estate investment at -11.2%[16] - Real estate sales area growth is anticipated to be -8.0% in June[17] Trade and Price Dynamics - Export growth for June is expected to be approximately 3.5%, while imports are projected to grow by 1%[14] - CPI for June is forecasted to be around 0% year-on-year, with PPI expected to remain at -3.3%[9][10] Financial Sector Outlook - New social financing in June is estimated at 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 600 billion yuan year-on-year[5] - M2 money supply growth is expected to be around 7.9% in June[5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, the macro - economic data continued the overall stability of 2025, but the recovery momentum still needed to be strengthened. The real GDP growth rate was stronger than the nominal GDP. The domestic economy showed strong resilience with robust industrial production and high - speed consumption, but also faced challenges such as weak price index, falling real estate sales growth, and declining export growth. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, and the pressure on the price index was higher than that on real GDP. Macro - policies were needed to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [2][34][35] Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month, but the Strength was Weak - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.3%, up 0.6 percentage points. The production index was 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating accelerated production activities. The new order index was 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, showing a recovery in market demand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points. The rebound of manufacturing PMI was weak, indicating that the domestic economic recovery momentum still needed to be enhanced [3][6] 2. In April, CPI Declined 0.1% Year - on - Year, and PPI Fell 2.7% Year - on - Year, with Prices Remaining Depressed - In May 2025, the national CPI declined 0.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.6% year - on - year, with a slight rebound. The PPI declined 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month; the industrial producer purchase price declined 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. The fall in global commodity prices such as crude oil dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [7][8][10] 3. In April, Exports Increased 8.1% Year - on - Year, and Imports Declined 0.2% Year - on - Year - In May 2025, the total import and export volume was 528.98 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 1.3%. Exports were 316.1 billion US dollars, up 4.8% year - on - year; imports were 212.88 billion US dollars, down 3.4% year - on - year; the trade surplus was 103.22 billion US dollars. Exports to the US declined 34.5% year - on - year, to the EU increased 12.0% year - on - year, to ASEAN countries increased 14.8% year - on - year, and to Japan increased 6.2% year - on - year. The high export growth in April might be related to "re - export trade" and "rush to export" by enterprises, while the decline in May might be due to the end of "rush to export and replenish inventory" by overseas enterprises. The export growth was expected to further decline in the second half of 2025 [12][14] 4. M1 Significantly Rebounded in May - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of May, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.7%. In May, residents' short - term loans decreased by 208 million yuan, and medium - and long - term loans increased by 746 million yuan. Enterprises' short - term loans increased by 1.1 billion yuan, medium - and long - term loans increased by 3.3 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 746 million yuan. The M1 balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.3%, and the M2 balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.9%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 5.6%. The credit in May continued to be weak, but the M1 growth rate significantly rebounded [16][20][21] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth was High - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in May was 4.1326 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%. The high - speed growth of consumption was due to consumption subsidies and trade - in policies. The consumption of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment maintained high growth rates, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth. The investment in fixed assets continued to slow down, and the real estate development investment was still in a downward trend, but the decline was narrowing [22][23][25] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it had Conditions for Stabilization - From January to May, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 2.9% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The construction area, new construction area, and completion area of real estate development enterprises all declined. The unsold area of commercial housing decreased slightly. Although the real estate market cooled in the second quarter, it was still in an improving trend. The year - on - year decline in sales area and volume was expected to further narrow. There was room for further strengthening of real estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle was emerging [28][30][33] 7. Summary and Outlook - The domestic economy showed strong resilience with stable industrial production and high - speed consumption growth, but the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The macro - economy presented a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. The main factors affecting the macro - economy and asset price repair were insufficient market demand and structural over - capacity in multiple industries. Macro - policies were needed to boost market confidence and expand effective demand, and the supply - side needed to be cleared. The macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward repair trend in 2025 [34][35]

Economic Overview - In May, industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year, slowing down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The service production index increased by 6.2% year-on-year in May, a slight acceleration of 0.2 percentage points from April[1] - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service sectors combined was 6.1%, slightly up from 6.0% in April[1] Retail Performance - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the fastest growth since early last year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[2] - National subsidies contributed an additional 0.5 percentage points to retail growth in May, with total subsidies amounting to 162 billion yuan[2] - The contribution of home appliances and audio-visual equipment to retail sales increased significantly, with growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively in May[2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment from January to May grew by 3.7% year-on-year, with a 7.7% increase when excluding real estate investments, both slowing by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Equipment investment rose by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 63.6% to total investment growth, down from 64.5% in the previous month[4] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area and sales value in May decreased by 3.3% and 6.0% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area growth slowing by 1.2 percentage points from April[5] - Prices for new and second-hand homes in first-tier cities fell, with a 0.7% decline in first-tier cities leading the drop[5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of retail, investment, and export delivery values increased by 0.3 percentage points to 4.1%, still about 2 percentage points lower than the production growth rate of 6.1%[6] - The industrial sales rate fell by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 95.9%, indicating ongoing demand insufficiency[6] Future Outlook - The second quarter GDP is expected to exceed 5% year-on-year, supported by retail and service sector growth, despite weak investment and export performance[7] - Incremental policy measures may be delayed until after August, with potential new agreements between China and the U.S. impacting trade dynamics[8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of preemptive export orders on future export performance, suggesting that while there may be a decline in export growth, the overall resilience of Chinese manufacturing remains intact due to limited overdraw and significant contributions from incremental demand [1]. Group 1: Export Trends and Tariff Impact - The surge in exports began in November 2024, coinciding with Trump's election victory, leading to a significant increase in exports to the U.S. [2] - In February 2025, a decrease in export activity was noted due to lower-than-expected tariffs on fentanyl, resulting in a notable drop in export growth [2] - By March 2025, renewed expectations of large-scale tariffs led to another wave of preemptive exports [2][3] Group 2: Measurement of Export Overdraw - The analysis of export growth from November 2024 to April 2025 indicates that approximately half of the elevated export growth was due to preemptive orders, while the other half stemmed from genuine incremental orders [4] - A simulation of the scenario post-preemptive orders suggests that while there may be a significant drop in export growth for overdrawn orders, exports to other regions are expected to remain stable [4] Group 3: Future Export Growth Outlook - The overall export growth rate is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the trend remains stable, with potential impacts from a slowdown in the U.S. economy [5] - The imposition of a 10% tariff by the U.S. could lead to a maximum decline of 2% in the export growth rate, suggesting a baseline export growth rate of around 2.7% for the third quarter [5]

Export Performance - In May, export growth was 4.8%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in momentum[3] - Cumulative export growth for May was 6.0%, higher than the annual growth rate from last year, suggesting continued resilience[3] - Exports to the US fell sharply by 34.5%, a decline of 13.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] Regional Export Trends - Exports to the EU increased by 12.0%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month, with Germany contributing a growth rate of 21.5%[4] - Exports to Canada rose by 20.3%, indicating a continuation of transshipment trade[4] - ASEAN exports showed resilience with a contribution of 2.5 percentage points to overall export growth, accounting for 52.6% of the total[4] Product-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive products like bags, textiles, and footwear saw declines in export growth rates of -10.3%, -2.0%, and -5.6% respectively, dragging down overall export growth by 0.3 percentage points[5] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits, saw a significant increase in export growth of 33.4%[5] - Automotive exports improved significantly with a growth rate of 13.7%, up 9.3 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Trends - Import growth fell by 3.4%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining prices of bulk commodities like coal and crude oil[7] - Agricultural imports showed recovery with a growth rate of 0.7%, up 17.96 percentage points from the previous month, driven by soybeans and grains[7] Future Outlook - Export resilience is expected to continue in the short term, supported by adjustments in shipping capacity to the US and sustained demand from ASEAN[8] - However, potential pressures on exports are anticipated in the second half of the year due to changes in US tariff policies and the expiration of exemptions on certain goods[8]

Market Overview - On June 10, the three major stock indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 0.02%, and the ChiNext Index declining by 0.16% [1] Guest Opinions - Guotai Junan Securities' investment advisor Wang Chen believes that the overall market risk is controllable, and a short-term upward trend is expected. A key upward breakthrough may require the activation of heavyweight sectors [2] - Dongfang Securities' investment advisor Ying Fang suggests that investors focus on specific sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments, while also considering taking profits in sectors with long-term potential [2] - Jinyuan Securities' chief investment advisor Xu Chuanbao holds an optimistic view of the market, recommending that investors seize structural opportunities and select quality stocks for medium to long-term investment [2] Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities reports a slight decline in export growth, with May's export growth rate dropping by 3.3 percentage points to 4.8%, slightly below market expectations. The report highlights strong export growth to non-US markets and the significant contribution of the semiconductor and automotive industries to exports [5][6] - Huatai Securities indicates that AI applications are expected to see rapid growth in areas where data processes are standardized and ROI is quantifiable. The commercialization of AI is accelerating, particularly in ToC scenarios like gaming and e-commerce, while ToB applications in marketing and sales are moving towards large-scale implementation [7]