1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The regional spread of urban investment bonds has shown a significant differentiation, with the spread in economically strong regions remaining low and the spread in weak - qualified regions still high. As platforms complete the clearance of implicit debts and exit the "list", market attention will shift to regional economic resilience and platform self - hematopoietic ability [1][15]. - The term spread of low - rated urban investment bonds has widened, indicating market concerns about the long - term solvency of weak - qualified entities after transformation. The market also has high requirements for liquidity compensation for weak - qualified urban investment bonds [17][21]. - Urban investment bonds with a remaining term of less than 2 years have relatively strong safety margins and can be explored according to return requirements. For longer durations, medium - to high - grade urban investment bonds with strong self - hematopoietic abilities and stable cash flows should be selected. Insurance institutions with stable liability ends can appropriately focus on the coupon allocation value of high - grade urban investment bonds over 5 years [2][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Analysis of Urban Investment Bond Spreads in the Second Half of Debt Resolution - **Regional spread differentiation**: The "package debt resolution policy" has effectively alleviated the liquidity risk in weak - qualified regions, causing the regional spread to decline rapidly in the early stage of the policy. Since the second half of 2025, the regional spread has dropped below 150bp, but the absolute spread between strong and weak regions is still significant. The credit spread in economically and fiscally strong regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong remains at a low level of 30 - 40bp, while that in weak - qualified regions such as Guizhou is still above 150bp [11][15]. - **Term spread differentiation**: As the key point approaches, the pricing center of the term spread of urban investment bonds has shifted upward, and the widening range of the term spread of low - rated bonds is relatively higher. For example, the 3Y - 1Y term spread center of AAA - rated urban investment bonds has increased by 10bp from - 6.6bp in 2024, while that of AA(2) - rated bonds has increased by 17bp. The difference between the spreads of 1 - 2Y and 3 - 5Y low - rated urban investment bonds in Jiangsu has reached a new high since the end of 2025 [17][21]. 3.2. Overview of Credit Bond Yields - Last week (January 12 - 18, 2026), credit bond yields mainly declined. Financial bonds outperformed general credit bonds, long - term varieties outperformed short - term ones, and credit bonds mostly outperformed interest - rate bonds of the same term. Among them, bank secondary perpetual bonds in financial bonds performed the best [23]. 3.3. Primary Market - **Issuance volume**: The issuance scale of credit bonds increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, and the net financing scale decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year. From January 12 to 18, the credit bond issuance scale was 351.271 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 41.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 216 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 61.793 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 90.3 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 157.8 billion yuan [31]. - **Issuance term**: The average issuance term of credit bonds decreased week - on - week. Last week, the average issuance term was 2.7 years, a decrease of 0.17 years compared with the previous week. The issuance terms of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.57 years, 0.2 years, and 0.46 years respectively [40]. - **Issuance cost**: The average issuance interest rate of credit bonds decreased. Last week, the average issuance interest rate was 2.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1bp. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds, urban investment bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 0.6bp, 1.1bp, and 1.8bp respectively [42]. - **Cancellation of issuance**: The number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased week - on - week. From January 12 to 18, 15 bonds were cancelled, an increase of 7 compared with the previous week, and the total scale of cancelled issuances was 8.308 billion yuan, an increase of 1.662 billion yuan [46]. 3.4. Secondary Market - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of various credit bond varieties increased compared with the previous week. The trading volumes of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 40 billion yuan. In terms of remaining term and implicit rating, there were different trends in the trading proportion of each variety [51][52]. - **Trading liquidity**: The turnover rates of credit bonds increased last week. The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased from 1.58%, 1.99%, and 3.21% to 1.80%, 2.10%, and 3.51% respectively. The turnover rates of different terms of each variety showed different trends [55]. - **Spread tracking**: The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly narrowed last week, with the average narrowing amplitude ranked as 1Y>10Y>7Y>3Y. Except for Shanghai and Gansu, the spreads of each province narrowed. The spreads of AAA - rated industrial bonds mostly widened, while those of AA - rated industrial bonds mostly narrowed. The spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and insurance subordinated bonds all narrowed [60][65][66]. 3.5. Weekly Hot Bonds Based on qeubee's bond liquidity scores, the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [70]. 3.6. Review of Credit Rating Adjustments According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded debt ratings last week [75].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading urban management service operator with strong performance, transitioning from traditional services to smart city solutions, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite current market challenges [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow from 2.2 billion to 3.91 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 12.3%, while net profit is expected to increase from 130 million to 290 million yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 17.1% [1]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.77 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 5.87%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 38.08% year-over-year, primarily due to market competition and increased bad debt provisions [1]. - The company's accounts receivable increased from 900 million to 3.28 billion yuan from 2019 to 2023, with accounts receivable to total assets ratio rising from 28% to 43.6% [2]. Group 2: Cash Flow and Debt Policy - The company has faced cash flow pressures due to tight fiscal conditions in some regions, but recent debt relief policies are expected to improve cash flow and performance [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities is projected to rebound to 160 million yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 98.3% [2]. - A new round of large-scale debt relief, approved on November 8, 2024, is expected to significantly enhance the company's cash flow and facilitate order expansion [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company is focusing on new productivity through the application of sanitation robots, which are expected to save over 30% in costs and improve operational efficiency [3]. - The establishment of the Qiaoyin Smart City Research Institute aims to develop AI and autonomous driving technologies, with an investment of up to 1 billion yuan in an AI industry ecosystem headquarters [3]. - The company has launched several self-developed intelligent robots across various urban management sectors, projected to save over 1.374 billion yuan in operating costs [3]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - The company is creating a new paradigm for smart urban services by integrating technology with traditional services, focusing on AI-driven solutions for urban management [3]. - A joint venture with Aihua Technology aims to develop a multi-modal interactive intelligent platform, targeting key areas such as smart communities and municipal management [3]. - The company anticipates that new orders from AI-driven solutions will generate over 700 million yuan in commercial value, reinforcing the synergy between traditional and technological business models [3].

Core Insights - The underlying logic of commodities and liquor is interconnected, primarily revolving around the trading of Federal Reserve QE, which is expected to lead to increased dollar liquidity by 2026, marking the beginning of a new cycle for the liquor industry [1][11]. - The probability of the Federal Reserve initiating QE significantly increases by mid-2026, driven by the current administration's push for interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures in the U.S. [2][14]. - Once the Federal Reserve begins QE, the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit with debt monetization, leading to a recovery in the real economy and a return to prosperity in 2026 [3][20]. Group 1: Commodity and Liquor Logic - The current commodity supercycle is driven by the expectation of rampant dollar liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's QE, which will also enhance the appeal of commodities with monetary and safety attributes [1][11]. - The initiation of QE by the Federal Reserve is anticipated to prompt the People's Bank of China to quickly implement debt monetization, thereby improving the balance sheets of the real economy and enhancing consumer capacity and willingness [1][11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's QE Probability - The current administration's core demand for interest rate cuts is expected to lead to a significant reduction in inflationary pressures, which will likely force the Federal Reserve to initiate QE [2][14]. - By mid-2026, the Federal Reserve is projected to face a liquidity crunch that may compel it to expand its balance sheet through QE, marking a critical window for such actions [2][16]. Group 3: Liquor Industry Revival - The liquor industry has experienced four cycles since 2003, and the anticipated QE in 2026 is expected to initiate a new cycle, driven by a return to prosperity and increased consumer spending [4][25]. - The combination of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening yuan is expected to accelerate the return of national wealth, thereby enhancing consumer demand and initiating a new cycle for the liquor industry [7][28]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that will benefit from the anticipated QE, including oil, chemicals, liquor, and high-end manufacturing, as the market is expected to reach new highs [8][31]. - Specific investment strategies include emphasizing metals, consumer goods, and high-end manufacturing sectors that are poised to benefit from the return of cross-border capital and improved consumer sentiment [8][31].

21世纪经济报道记者 周潇枭 北京报道 1月16日，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署做好 清理拖欠企业账款行动和保障农民工工资支付有关工作。 比如，2025年6月，云南省人大对外公布的云南省本级预算调整方案的审查结果报告显示，2025年财政 部下达云南省新增专项债务额度955亿元，包含用于项目建设的230亿元、用于解决地方政府拖欠企业账 款的356亿元、用于补充政府性基金财力的369亿元。 2025年10月，中央财政安排使用5000亿元地方债结存限额时，部分额度用于支持消化拖欠企业账款。财 政部相关负责人表示，从地方政府债务结存限额中安排5000亿元下达地方，支持地方化解存量政府投资 项目债务、消化政府拖欠企业账款、部分省份项目建设等。 会议指出，清理拖欠企业账款和保障农民工工资支付事关企业合法权益和群众切身利益，必须高度重 视，持续加大工作力度。要加紧清理拖欠企业账款，紧盯重点地区加强督促指导，压实地方责任，统筹 安排、尽快下达用于支持清欠的专项债券额度，更大发挥金融政策作用，健全清欠长效机制，加快清理 存量、坚决遏制增量。要扎扎实实解决拖欠工资问题，继续组织实施好治理欠薪专项行动，严格落实欠 薪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is shifting, with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan adopting opposing monetary policies, leading to changes in liquidity and debt management strategies across major economies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates four times from late 2025 to late 2026, making money cheaper [1]. - In contrast, the Bank of Japan has begun raising interest rates, with a current benchmark rate of 0.5%, and plans to reduce its bond purchasing by approximately 2 trillion yen monthly starting April 2026 [1][3]. - This divergence in monetary policy between the two largest economies is creating a complex global liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Impact on Global Liquidity - The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, has reached a scale of over 140 trillion yen (approximately $930 billion), which is 236% of Japan's GDP [3]. - As Japanese interest rates rise and U.S. rates fall, the profitability of this carry trade is being squeezed, potentially leading to a sell-off of U.S. assets as investors return to yen [3]. Group 3: Debt Management Strategies - High debt levels are a common issue for many economies, with emerging markets and developing economies facing the highest public debt levels in over fifty years [4]. - The Eurozone's debt-to-GDP ratio reached 78.1% in July, indicating significant debt challenges [4]. - China plans to maintain an active fiscal policy with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a slight increase in the broad fiscal deficit rate to 8.9% [4]. Group 4: Effects on Interest Rates and Inflation - Lower interest rates from central banks will likely lead to reduced loan rates, benefiting borrowers but potentially shrinking interest income for savers [5][7]. - The average mortgage rate has decreased to approximately 3.24%, which is favorable for homeowners [7]. - Global inflation is projected to decline from 4% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2026, although certain essential costs, such as services, continue to rise [7][8]. Group 5: Asset Prices and Investment Strategies - Low interest rates and increased liquidity typically drive up asset prices, with U.S. stock indices showing gains amid rate cut expectations [8]. - However, high valuations in sectors like artificial intelligence pose risks of market corrections [8]. - Governments may resort to issuing more bonds to manage debt, which could lead to lower bond prices and higher yields, impacting bond investors [8]. Group 6: Trade Policies and Economic Growth - The U.S. high tariff policies are affecting global trade, with the World Trade Organization downgrading the 2026 global goods trade growth forecast to 0.5%, significantly lower than 2.4% in 2025 [9]. - Trade difficulties may lead to increased production costs, ultimately affecting consumer prices [9]. Group 7: Recommendations for Individuals - Adjusting savings strategies is crucial in a declining interest rate environment, with a recommendation to diversify into medium- to long-term deposits [11]. - Borrowers should consider the benefits of lower interest rates on existing loans, while being cautious about increasing debt [11]. - Investment strategies should focus on diversification to mitigate risks associated with high asset valuations [11][12].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the core goal of debt resolution will shift from reducing debt scale and interest costs in the short term to building a modern local fiscal system and investment - financing mechanism compatible with high - quality development. The work will continue to clear the remaining implicit debt by the end of 2028 and focus more on fundamentally improving the health of local finances [2][8]. - The policy focus will shift from simply "addressing debt resolution" to more precisely balancing multiple goals such as "resolving existing risks", "supporting reasonable new investments", and "preventing new risks" [3][9]. - The impact of debt resolution on the capital market will shift from "credit risk premium compression" to "structural asset revaluation based on regional fiscal health and growth potential" [4][9]. - The historical mission of this round of debt resolution will be upgraded to responding to the call of the central government to "address local fiscal difficulties", laying a solid institutional and credit foundation for local governments to "cultivate endogenous growth power" and ensuring the smooth implementation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [5][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Event - 2026 is a crucial connecting year between the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan and the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The core goal of debt resolution will be deepened [1]. Investment Highlights - The Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2025 marked that addressing local fiscal sustainability became a key annual task. The policy aims to establish a long - term mechanism to enhance local self - generated financial resources and reduce dependence on land finance and debt expansion [2][8]. Policy Focus Shift - With the significant mitigation of systemic risks, policies need to balance multiple goals. In 2026, necessary fiscal deficits, debt scales, and expenditure amounts should be maintained. Fiscal management should be strengthened, and expenditure structure should be optimized [3][9]. Market Impact Overall Impact - As the "asset shortage" persists and interest rates remain low, the impact of debt resolution on the capital market will shift to structural asset revaluation based on regional fiscal health and growth potential [4][9]. Bond Market - Credit spreads in different regions will reappear and differentiate based on fiscal health, economic growth potential, and governance capabilities. Assets in regions with successful fiscal problem - solving will receive higher premiums [4][9]. Stock Market - The "stock - bond seesaw" effect may be strengthened during the 15th Five - Year Plan. Fiscal policies will guide more resources to technology innovation, industrial upgrading, and consumption - related fields, providing clear investment lines for the equity market [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that city investment platforms are accelerating the separation from government financing functions, transitioning from nominal withdrawal to substantial market-oriented transformation due to strict regulatory policies and tightened financing conditions since the new round of debt cycle began [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The dual pressure of strict regulation and financing tightening is driving city investment platforms to enhance their market-oriented operations [1] - The deadline for nominal withdrawal from platforms is approaching in June 2027, leading to significant regional differentiation [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - Economically strong provinces are leading the way in asset integration to break through challenges, while weaker regions face a vacuum dilemma of "decoupling without transition" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - It is expected that high-quality leading platforms will better adapt to the identity of market-oriented operators and participate in market competition [1] - The focus of debt resolution may shift from implicit debt to operational debt of platforms, with the transformation of financing platforms moving from reduction to quality enhancement [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of debt restructuring cycle is characterized by strict regulatory policies and tightened financing, leading local government financing platforms to accelerate the separation of their financing functions and transition from nominal withdrawal to substantial market-oriented transformation [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The dual pressure from regulatory strictness and financing constraints is driving local government financing platforms to evolve [1] - There is a significant regional differentiation as the deadline for platform withdrawal approaches in June 2027 [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - Economically strong provinces are leading the way in asset integration to break through challenges, while weaker regions face a vacuum due to the disconnect between withdrawal and transformation [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - It is expected that high-quality leading platforms will better adapt to the identity of market-oriented operators and participate in market competition [1] - The focus of debt restructuring may shift from implicit debt to operational debt of platforms, with the transformation of financing platforms moving from reduction to quality enhancement [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the economic "temperature difference" at the end of 2025, highlighting a divergence between macro indicators like PMI and micro indicators such as production and consumption [2][4][10] - At the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation showed a decline, while manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December [2][10] - Consumer high-frequency indicators continued to decline at the end of 2025, yet the overall consumer goods industry PMI rose to 50.4%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors like textiles and apparel [20][10] Group 2 - Investment indicators such as asphalt operation rates and cement shipment rates did not show significant improvement, but the construction industry PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8% at the end of 2025 [3][32][10] - The article identifies three reasons for the divergence in macro and micro indicators: the shift in economic growth momentum, the risk of demand overextension in consumer sectors, and the impact of previous debt issues on investment rhythms [4][5][44][67] Group 3 - The article anticipates that service consumption and new infrastructure investments will contribute more than expected to the economy at the beginning of 2026, despite pressures on commodity consumption due to the tapering of "old-for-new" policies [6][78][82] - The easing of the debt impact on investment is expected to lead to a rebound in broad infrastructure and service sector investments in early 2026, with a focus on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments [82][86] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 is projected to extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures [105][110]

Group 1: Economic Discrepancies - By the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation weakened, while manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%[3] - Consumer retail volume for automobiles and home appliances showed a downward trend, but the overall consumer goods PMI increased by 1 percentage point to 50.4% in December[3] - Cement shipment rates and rebar apparent consumption remained low, with December year-on-year changes of -1.8% and -10% respectively, yet the construction PMI rose by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%[4] Group 2: Factors Behind Economic Discrepancies - The shift in economic growth momentum has led to new sectors lacking high-frequency indicators contributing more to the economy, with AI-related industries boosting GDP by approximately 1.5 percentage points[5] - Consumer sectors face "demand overdraw risks," while service consumption, which lacks tracking indicators, has shown resilience, with service retail growth rising since September[5] - Previous debt management affected investment rhythms, with industrial product improvements reflecting raw material purchases rather than actual investments[5] Group 3: Economic Outlook for Early 2026 - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to face downward pressure, but service consumption may benefit from increased policy support, with domestic travel and spending during the New Year holiday exceeding 2019 levels[6] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in early 2026 due to reduced special refinancing bond issuance and new infrastructure policies, focusing on digital infrastructure and carbon reduction investments[6] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures compared to the previous year[6]