黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 玻璃纯碱：交易情绪提振，玻碱盘面反弹 市场分析 玻璃方面：昨日玻璃期货震荡上行，盘中波动加剧，成交活跃。现货方面，下游以观望刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前玻璃供需矛盾依旧较大，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显 不足。库存压力不减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。 纯碱方面：昨日纯碱期货盘面震荡上行，盘面成交活跃。现货方面，下游报价有所上调，期现成交惨淡，刚需采 购为主。 供需与逻辑：目前纯碱供需矛盾有所缓解，产量有所回落，库存持续下降。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投产， 同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，持续关注浮法玻璃 产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 策略 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅：合金期货反弹，现货小幅调整 市场分析 硅锰方面，昨日硅锰期货反弹飘红。现货端：硅锰市场表现强势，期货开盘继续上行 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-31 市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场情绪趋弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3134元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3282元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日略有转弱，刚需低价拿货为主，有对昨日的补跌。全国建材成交9.32万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持淡季水平。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，价格边际波动有限。短期 市场心态纠结，盘面短期切换节奏较快。关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、利润状况、成本支撑、原 料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪谨慎，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘789元/吨，较前一交易日下跌3.5元，跌幅 0.44%；现货方面，临近元旦假期，市场交投趋稳，贸易商多随行就市，钢厂维持低库存运行，补库意愿有限，采 购价格多随行就市。全国主港铁矿累计成交84.5万吨，环比下跌24.55%。 供需与逻辑：补库预期支撑 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 31 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 震荡偏强 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多，轻仓过节 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空 ...

智通财经APP注意到，在年底的假期淡静交易中，全球商品市场展现出复杂图景：贵金属在降息预期与 地缘政治避险需求的双重推动下闪耀全场，创下历史新高；而能源与农产品市场则在基本面因素与天气 风险的拉扯中震荡前行。 农业与畜牧业：气候风险下的利润收割 农产品市场受到南美天气及地缘政治风险的双重考验。玉米和豆类虽然在早期受中国需求预期提振出 现"圣诞老人行情"，但随后因农民套现抛售而承压。一个显著的警示点是：大豆出口量同比下降了近三 分之一，这可能影响到2026年的种植决策。相比之下，玉米出口同比激增30%，成为谷物市场的亮点。 在畜牧业，牛市基本面依然稳健，但猪肉市场正因供应增加而面临下行压力。 2026年将迎来拐点？ 瑞银执行销售总监Claudio Martucci表示，尽管市场流动性因假期而稀薄，放大了个别品种的价格波 动，但资金流向清晰地指向了避险与防御。整体来看，市场正为2026年的新开局蓄势，美联储政策动向 与宏观数据将成为后续走向的关键。 贵金属：情绪推动的"史诗级"狂欢 上周，贵金属市场成为大宗商品领域的绝对焦点。受2026年美联储降息预期及地缘避险情绪驱动，黄金 价格创下历史新高。白银表现尤为惊人， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in profits, the long - term view is to go long on dips as the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short - term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase, but may face short - term corrections in January next year. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, copper and aluminum have relatively strong price support, while zinc and lead may be affected by the departure of long positions [11][13]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range [31][34]. - For energy chemicals, the strategies for different products vary. For example, for crude oil, a low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained with short - term waiting and seeing [52]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, for live pigs, a strategy of short - term long and long - term short is recommended [75]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: The State Administration for Market Regulation deployed key tasks for 2026, including anti - monopoly work; from January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year; tobacco advertising and business promotion expenses of tobacco enterprises cannot be deducted; the auction electricity price of the largest power grid operator in the United States may double [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. From January to November, the operating income of state - owned enterprises increased by 1.0% year - on - year, and the total profit decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted a 4823 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Monday, with a net investment of 4150 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and a quick - in - quick - out strategy is suitable [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. Trump's remarks on the Fed and the selection of the new Fed chair have an impact on market expectations, and international silver prices hit a new high [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metals may face short - term corrections in January next year, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, copper prices rose and then fell sharply. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: After the sharp adjustment of precious metals, aluminum prices rose and then fell. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. LME zinc inventory and domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell slightly. LME lead inventory increased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand of lead is weak, and the departure of long positions may impact prices [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rose and then fell. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The excess pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price fell. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate fell. The contract decreased its position significantly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see or try light - position call options. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell. The spot price was at a discount, and the futures inventory decreased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2400 - 2900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract rose. The inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [31]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose. The spot price was at a premium, and the inventory increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price is expected to run within the oscillation range, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose. The inventory increased, and the trading volume decreased [35]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The soda ash main contract price rose. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume decreased [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash has not been significantly alleviated, and the market rebound is limited [36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The spot prices were at a premium [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is affected by the black sector and cost factors. Attention should be paid to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [39]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price is expected to fluctuate with the market, and attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under strong supervision, the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to spot transactions [44]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly. The tire start - up rate was slightly worse, and the inventory increased [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see and partially close the hedging position [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures price fell. The inventories of refined oil products had different changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A low - buy - high - sell strategy is maintained, and short - term waiting and seeing are recommended [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol fell, and the main futures contract price was stable [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the main futures contract price was stable [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea market is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner, and it is recommended to go long on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, and the styrene spot price rose while the futures price fell [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract price fell. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and the valuation needs to be compressed in the medium - term [63]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term de - stocking. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. Pay attention to the callback risk in the short - term and the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [68]. Polyethylene PE - **Market Information**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene PP - **Market Information**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was weak [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price mainly rose. The supply and demand were in a complex state [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The spot price may be strong in the short - term, and it is recommended to short after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mainly stable. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the long - term pressure [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean and meal inventories were large, and the demand was weak [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic palm oil inventory was high, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe high - frequency data and conduct short - term operations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The domestic and international sugar production and import data changed [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February next year, and the domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell. The domestic cotton production increased, and the import was restricted [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].

Group 1 - Market sentiment score has stabilized at 1.1 as of December 26, indicating a neutral outlook, with signs of improvement in trading activity [7][11][14] - The overall trading volume for the week increased by 11.63% compared to the previous week, with an average daily trading volume of 19,651.66 billion RMB, peaking at 21,811.04 billion RMB on December 26 [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reaching a new high, indicating an increase in leveraged funds and a recovery in risk appetite [25][27] Group 2 - The short-term scores for industries such as computers, real estate, pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing, and communications having the highest short-term scores of 88.14 [35][36] - The industry trading volatility has decreased, indicating a slowdown in capital switching between sectors, with liquidity marginally tightening [20][22] - The correlation between industry congestion and weekly price changes is positive at 0.16, suggesting that sectors with high congestion, like defense and construction materials, have seen significant gains [39][41] Group 3 - The RSI indicator has shown significant improvement, indicating a reduction in selling pressure and a recovery in upward momentum [28][30] - The model indicates a preference for small-cap and growth styles, with the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI continuing to rise, suggesting potential strengthening of these signals [44][45] - The model's findings highlight that high congestion in sectors can lead to strong price movements but also increases the risk of rapid corrections if market expectations change [38][39]

证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 29 日 部分指标震荡修复，市场情绪有望 筑底 ——量化择时周报 20251228 相关研究 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分震荡回升：截至 12 月 26 日，市场情绪指标数值为 1.1，较上周五的 1.1 持 平，情绪得分震荡维稳，从情绪角度来看观点偏中性。从所有分项指标的变化来看，本周 情绪指数综合得分周内有所改善，市场交易活跃度出现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪出现修复改善，指标分化仍存：本周价量一致性指标周内维持震荡走势，周后段出现 明显回升，较前期有所改善，市场价量匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强， 情绪端呈现边际回暖；科创 50 相对万得全 A 成交占比延续下行趋势，反映高弹性板块参 与度仍偏低，风险偏好修复仍显不足；行业间交易波动率持续下降并下穿布林带上界，资 金在不同行业间切换节奏放缓，跨行业轮动意愿减弱，流动性边际趋缓；行业涨跌趋势性 指标维持在布林带上界附近震荡，行业观点一致性较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - The market sentiment is overly high recently, and there is a risk of a decline. Attention should be paid to the macro - situation and the supply - side recovery [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The strong cost and weak demand make the price of ADC12 have limited upward and downward space. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20800 - 21800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the policy is more sentiment - driven and difficult to reverse the supply - demand fundamentals in the short term. The price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the market is dominated by the game between strong macro - expectations and weak fundamentals. The price is expected to remain in a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc Industry - The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The support comes from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Attention should be paid to the import profit and loss, TC inflection point, and refined zinc inventory changes, with the main contract focusing on the 22850 - 22950 support [7]. Copper Industry - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price is over - estimated to some extent. In a market with high speculative sentiment and risk preference, the price may remain strong in the short term. It is not advisable to short on the left side before the bullish logic reverses and the price shows a peak signal. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The short - term supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. The destocking has slowed down. The price may remain strong in the short term under the support of capital sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of regulatory tightening and profit - taking adjustment of funds [14]. Nickel Industry - The expectation of increased nickel ore control in Indonesia drives the recent sentiment to strengthen, but the short - term reality is still weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. The disk is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 123000 - 130000 [15]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the cost support of ore and ferronickel has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market sentiment is boosted, but the supply - demand game continues. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13200 [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both stable with a downward trend, and the expectation of production reduction is further heating up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price fluctuation range of 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction intensity [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price remains in a high - level shock. In January, under the background of weak demand, there is further production reduction pressure if supply - demand balance is to be achieved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the production reduction situation and price adjustment acceptance [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.60%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 900.00%, etc. The import profit and loss decreased by 13.49%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.81%, etc. SHEF inventory increased by 4.72%, and social inventory increased by 2.02% [2]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price increased by 0.23%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed. The monthly spread of some contracts also changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 6.93%, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 2.06% [4]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.18%, and the prices of alumina in different regions decreased to varying degrees. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 44.9 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82%, etc. The operating rate of some aluminum products decreased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.75% [5]. Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.52%, the import profit and loss decreased by 177.63 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, refined zinc exports increased by 402.59%. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide increased, and the seven - place social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 6.14% [7]. Copper Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 3.14%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 6.95%, the import profit and loss decreased by 129.00 yuan/ton, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [10]. Fundamental Data - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 3.90%. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased by 16.77% [10]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 6.67%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, demand increased by 5.11%, imports decreased by 7.64%, and exports increased by 208.75%. The total inventory decreased by 23.36% [14]. Nickel Industry Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.81%, the futures import profit and loss increased by 83.57%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In November, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and imports decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.82%, and social inventory decreased by 1.43% [15]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.38%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and exports increased by 13.18%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 1.43% [17]. Industrial Silicon Industry Price and Spread - The price of East China oxygen - containing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed [20]. Fundamental Data - In November, the national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, the organic silicon DMC production increased by 3.82%, and the export volume increased by 21.78%. The Xinjiang inventory increased by 2.33%, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed increased by 0.10%, and the monthly spread of some contracts changed significantly [21]. Fundamental Data - In November, polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%, imports decreased by 27.05%, and exports increased by 108.68%. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.88% [21].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 67, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [2][10] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking stocks, and brokerage firms, each showing potential for investment opportunities [6] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 67, indicating a "relatively hot" market, with historical trends suggesting support when the score is below 30 and resistance when above 70 [10] - Recent market movements have led to a cautious sentiment, with the market entering a consolidation phase [10] Hot Themes Tracking 1. **Liquid Cooling Theme**: - Liquid cooling technology is gaining traction in data centers due to its higher cooling efficiency and lower Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE). Major AI companies are accelerating its adoption, with NVIDIA and Google increasing their chip production targets significantly [6] - Related stocks include Invec (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] 2. **Banking Theme**: - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes them attractive for long-term investors amid economic slowdown [6] - Relevant stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] 3. **Brokerage Theme**: - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on enhancing regulatory measures for quality institutions, which may lead to improved capital efficiency and a shift towards high-quality development in the brokerage sector [6] - Key stocks in this sector include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of major funds, indicating significant net inflows for stocks like Sunshine Power (300274) and Aerospace Development (000547) [11] - Conversely, stocks such as Shenghong Technology (300476) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) experienced notable net outflows [12] Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within various sectors [19] - The analysis of financing and margin trading activities provides insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics, highlighting the need for careful evaluation of market conditions [19]

2025年12月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 工业硅：关注供应端扰动，情绪发酵或推高盘面 | 12 | | 多晶硅：震荡格局，关注市场情绪 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：基差背离待修正，正极厂启动检修 | 21 | | 棕榈油：减产逐步兑现，短期价格反弹 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆企稳，豆油震荡运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 | 35 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 白糖：维持弱基差预期 | 46 | | 棉花：震荡偏强，注意市场情绪变化20251228 | 53 | | 生猪：惜售情绪旺，等待元旦后现货印证 | 60 | | 花生：关注现货 | 66 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 ...