甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/17 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/11/1 0 | 801 | 2065 | 2068 | 2380 | 2420 | 2330 | 2603 | 244 | 322 | -29 | -40 | - | | 2025/11/1 1 | 801 | 2067 | 2073 | 2388 | 2370 | 2350 | 2608 | 242 | 322 | -24 | -40 | - | | 2025/11/1 2 | 801 | 2082 | 2080 | 2388 | 2370 | 23 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet expanding, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but the current oil prices need to test OPEC's export price - support willingness, and short - term wait - and - see is recommended [3]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas开工 remains high, arrivals are at a high level, and port inventories are rising. Coal prices are strong, squeezing enterprise profits and causing a slight decline in enterprise开工. Demand is weak overall, and there is a risk of price decline, so it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to bullish news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies improve the market atmosphere, and inventories are being depleted at a high level. The downside space is relatively limited, and it is expected to bottom out through oscillations [9]. - For rubber, a neutral approach is adopted, and short - term trading with quick entry and exit is recommended. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, but supply is high, and new devices are about to be put into operation. Demand is under pressure, and export prospects are poor. There is a risk of inventory accumulation, and short - term valuation is low. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered in the medium term [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are being depleted, and styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, OPEC +'s plan to suspend production growth may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. Polyethylene's valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. Supply is limited, and demand is picking up seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost side sees a potential increase in global oil inventories, and supply pressure is high. Demand is picking up slightly, and overall inventories are high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and prices may be supported in Q1 2026 [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending into gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Pay attention to the opportunity of mid - term valuation increase [27]. - For PTA, supply is expected to increase with new device launches, and inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Demand is expected to remain high but has limited room for improvement. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the mid - term increase in PXN [30]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. Valuation is relatively low, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 3.00 yuan/barrel, or 0.66%, to 457.40 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed gasoline inventories decreased by 0.65 million barrels to 8.18 million barrels, diesel inventories increased by 0.65 million barrels to 17.05 million barrels, etc. [2] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see in the short term to test OPEC's export price - support willingness [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 22, in Lunan by 10, and remained stable in Inner Mongolia. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 48 yuan to 2055 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 5. The 1 - 5 spread was - 3, reporting - 108 [5]. - **Strategy View**: High port inventories, high overseas开工, and weak demand lead to a risk of price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 6 yuan to 1652 yuan, and the basis was - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was - 2, reporting - 75 [8]. - **Strategy View**: The market is sensitive to news. Domestic supply exceeds demand, and new export policies improve the market. The downside space is limited, and it is expected to bottom out through oscillations [9] Rubber - **Market Information**: Macro risk appetite declined, and rubber prices oscillated and declined. Tyre factory开工 rates were neutral. China's natural rubber social inventories increased by 0.03 million tons to 105.63 million tons [11]. - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term trading, and consider partial position establishment for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose 22 yuan to 4608 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4520 (+10) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 88 (-12) yuan/ton. The overall开工 rate was 78.5%, a 2.2% decrease [13]. - **Strategy View**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is low, supply is high, demand is poor, and exports are expected to weaken. A short - selling strategy on rallies can be considered in the medium term [15] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 5375 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene rose 125 yuan/ton to 6450 yuan/ton. The BZN spread rose 20.12 yuan/ton to 106.87 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The BZN spread has room for upward repair, port inventories are being depleted, and styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The futures price rose 35 yuan to 6853 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream开工 rate was 83.72%, a 1.95% increase. Production enterprise inventories increased by 3.90 million tons to 52.92 million tons [20]. - **Strategy View**: OPEC +'s plan may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. Polyethylene's valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [21] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The futures price fell 6 yuan to 6474 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream开工 rate was 80.82%, a 1.34% increase. Production enterprise inventories increased by 2.01 million tons to 62 million tons [23]. - **Strategy View**: The cost side sees a potential increase in global oil inventories, and supply pressure is high. Demand is picking up slightly, and overall inventories are high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and prices may be supported in Q1 2026 [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract fell 30 yuan to 6806 yuan. China's PX开工 rate was 86.8%, a 3% decrease, and Asia's was 78.5%, a 1.7% decrease. PTA开工 rate was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease [26]. - **Strategy View**: It is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending into gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Pay attention to the opportunity of mid - term valuation increase [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract remained unchanged at 4700 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 70 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan. The PTA开工 rate was 75.7%, a 0.7% decrease, and the polyester开工 rate was 90.5%, a 0.8% decrease [28]. - **Strategy View**: Supply is expected to increase with new device launches, and inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Demand is expected to remain high but has limited room for improvement. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the mid - term increase in PXN [30] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose 30 yuan to 3922 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 39 yuan to 3980 yuan. The supply - side开工 rate was 71.6%, a 0.9% decrease. Port inventories increased by 9.9 million tons to 66.1 million tons [31]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. Valuation is relatively low, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a recovery in cotton sock sales as it gradually expands its high-quality customer base and depletes existing inventory. The seamless management is also anticipated to improve profitability, with expectations for customer expansion and volume growth to drive an elastic growth curve. Excluding asset disposal gains, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is estimated at 310 million, 360 million, and 400 million yuan, representing year-on-year changes of -4%, +14%, and +12% respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 13, 12, and 11 times, with a dividend yield of 4.5% based on a 60% payout ratio [2][4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring gains of 715 million, 167 million, and 102 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -5.2%, +71.2%, and +7.3% respectively. The increase in non-recurring gains was primarily due to significant gains from the disposal of non-current assets [4][11]. - The report highlights that the gross margin improved by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and 2.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 31.8% in Q3 2025, driven by improved gross margins in both cotton socks and seamless products. The net profit margin excluding non-recurring gains increased by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, although the increase was less than that of the gross margin due to a rise in management and sales expense ratios [11][18].

张波说，结合58安居客研究院线上监测数据来看：一线城市90-120m²户型找房占比29%，120-140m²户 型找房占比21.1%，可以看出改善型需求成为成交核心支撑。 张波表示，总体来看，一线核心板块企稳、二线内部分化、三四线整体承压的态势并未发生变化。11- 12月，随着政策托底力度加大、房企年底冲刺，市场预计还将呈现"量稳价弱、分化持续"的特征；房企 为完成年度业绩目标，将加大"以价换量"力度，叠加地方政府可能推出的补贴相关政策，预计新房在成 交价格下行的同时会带来成交量上升，其中核心24城增量将表现明显，更多三四线城市则维持基本成 交；从二手房来看，预计11-12月成交规模与10月基本持平，以上海、北京、杭州、成都等核心城市为 代表，有望实现量价双稳，房价跌幅将明显收窄；多数非核心二线城市需依赖公积金及购房补贴等相关 政策拉动成交，但政策刺激的边际效应逐步减弱，产业与人口红利才是长期动能。 58安居客研究院院长张波14日表示，从国家统计局发布的数据来看，一线城市改善需求依然稳定，其 中，90-144m²新建商品住宅价格环比稳定性最优。 （文章来源：新华财经） 他还说，高库存中小城市房价下行压力依然存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side shows that refineries have reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. The demand is currently below the historical average level. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3005 - 3053 for the 2601 contract [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high crude oil cost provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - price goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries is 1.312 million tons, a 18.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.5% year - on - year decrease. The capacity utilization rate is 31.8792%, a 1.44 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 532,000 tons, a 4.31% decrease month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume is 745,000 tons, a 22.53% increase month - on - month. Demand - side: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and modified asphalt are generally lower than the historical average, while the开工 rates of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes are higher. Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 576.02 yuan/ton, a 4.10% increase month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong local refineries is 799.3871 yuan/ton, a 34.46% increase month - on - month. The overall fundamentals are bearish [8]. - **Basis**: On November 13, the spot price in Shandong was 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 19 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 897,000 tons, a 4.26% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 641,000 tons, a 6.42% decrease month - on - month; and the port - diluted asphalt inventory is 160,000 tons, a 20.00% decrease month - on - month. All types of inventories are in a continuous destocking state, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: Considering refinery production cuts, low demand, stable inventory, and weakening crude oil, the cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3005 - 3053 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract prices, basis, inventory, and production data show different degrees of decline. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.11% to 3029 yuan/ton, the social inventory decreased by 4.27% to 89.7 million tons, and the sample enterprise output decreased by 4.32% to 53.2 million tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps in analyzing the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. - **Main Contract Spread**: The trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio**: The historical price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for refineries to make production decisions [42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the supply - side shipment situation [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side inventory status [47]. - **Production Volume**: The weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply - side production situation [50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Production**: The historical price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are important factors affecting asphalt production [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical production of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the supply - side production capacity of local refineries [57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the supply - side production efficiency [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical data of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the inventory situation in the futures market [66]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The historical social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the overall inventory status [70]. - **In - Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical in - factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, showing the inventory management efficiency of refineries [73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical production of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 is presented, showing the demand - side situation of related products [82]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is shown, reflecting the overall market demand [85]. - **Downstream Demand**: The historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream demand situation [88][89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, showing the demand - side equipment utilization [93][95]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The historical capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and other types from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the demand - side production activity [97][100]. - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: The historical capacity utilization rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the downstream production activity [102][104]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, showing the overall supply - demand relationship [107].

来源：市场投研资讯 本资料由招商证券研究发展中心汇编而成，仅供客户中的专业投资者参考。具体投资观点请以研究报告的完整内容为准，投研活动信息等请联系对口销 售。为保证服务质量、控制投资风险，敬请阅知页末的特别提示和一般声明。感谢您给予的理解和配合。 01丨 今日研选 策略：哪些细分领域供给充分出清？——A股2025年三季报系列之二（1111）【深度】 报告作者：张夏,陈星宇 核心观点： 供给出清：从资本开支增速、在建工程增速和历史分位数水平来看，供给充分出清或明显收紧的细分领域集中在：1）反内卷受益的资源品：化工（如煤 化工、聚氨酯、非金属材料）、建材（水泥制品、防水材料）、有色（铜、锂）、焦炭、铁矿石等；2）消费领域中的小额消费品（乳品、宠物食品、生 猪养殖、零食、品牌化妆品）、地产链（家纺、家居、个护小家电、照明设备）、医美耗材等；3）传统装备制造：摩托车、配电设备、逆变器、商用载 货车、印刷包装机械、仪器仪表、输变电设备等；4）部分电子硬件（集成电路制造、模拟芯片设计、光学元件、半导体材料、LED）；5）医药（疫苗、 中药、原料药）；6）新能源产业链（硅料硅片、蓄电池及其他电池、光伏加工设备、风力发电）， ...

Group 1 - The glass futures market is experiencing a weak performance with a current price fluctuation between 1043.00 and 1064.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.51% [1] - Supply-side policies for the fourth quarter are largely established, with limited expected reductions in operational capacity, while the domestic real estate cycle is dragging down demand [1] - The inventory levels in the float glass industry are high, making it difficult to effectively reduce stock before the Spring Festival [1] Group 2 - The overall market fundamentals are weak, with the daily melting volume remaining at 15.91 million tons and profits from coal-based processes still present [2] - Domestic real estate prices continued to decline in September, indicating weak internal demand and insufficient support for deep processing orders [2] - The market outlook is bearish, with short-term support expected from maintenance but a long-term weak demand scenario anticipated [2]

Core Insights - Anta Sports reported Q3 2025 retail data showing low single-digit growth for Anta and FILA brands, while other brands experienced a growth of 45%-50% [1] Group 1: Retail Performance - Anta brand retail showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, aligning with trends in the mass sports market, with channel adjustments expected to drive future growth [1] - FILA brand retail performance was relatively weak with low single-digit growth year-on-year, and inventory levels were noted to be high [1] Group 2: Discount and Inventory Management - Anta is expected to face weaker terminal discounts in the short term, but the inventory-to-sales ratio remains healthy [1] - For FILA, offline discounts are expected to remain stable, with an anticipated improvement in the inventory-to-sales ratio [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its brand matrix through acquisitions, with previous acquisitions like Jack Wolfskin contributing to long-term growth potential [1] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 13.1 billion, 14.6 billion, and 16.1 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 15, and 14 times [1] - The company's share buyback plan continues, providing short-term support for the stock price, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected. November is likely to see high imports, and it's difficult to resolve the contradictions in the 01 contract. Port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the inland market. Although coal prices have strengthened recently, it doesn't affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Foreign markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **Polypropylene**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest devices have seasonal overhauls in summer, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have decreased slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB price of caustic soda exports is 380, and attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2082 to 2070, and the Northwest discounted - to - futures price reached 2603 on November 10 [1]. - **Profit and Basis**: Import profit,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 also changed during this period. The主力基差 remained at - 40 on November 11, and the import profit decreased slightly [1]. Polyethylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of different types of polyethylene in various regions changed. For example, the price of East China LL decreased from 7025 to 6950. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 12073, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased from 12669 to 12073 [6]. - **Market Indicators**: The basis of the 09 contract, import profit, and other indicators are also provided. The import profit is around - 200, and the basis in North China and East China is - 110 and - 50 respectively [6]. Polypropylene - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of polypropylene in different regions and related raw materials changed. For example, the price of East China PP increased from 6425 to 6375. The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased from 71 to 14629, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 14629 [6]. - **Profit and Market Indicators**: Export profit,主力期货 price, and basis are also included. The export profit was - 18 on November 5 and - 11 on November 10, and the basis remained at - 100 [6]. PVC - **Price and Cost Data**: From November 5 to 11, 2025, prices of PVC in different production methods and regions changed. For example, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased from 4610 to 4570. The price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400, and the price of Shandong caustic soda remained at 807 [6]. - **Profit and Basis**: Export profit, comprehensive profit, and basis are also provided. The basis of high - end delivery products decreased from - 70 to - 90 [6].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the capital expenditure of non-financial A-share listed companies has continued to decline, with a negative growth trend since the end of 2022, indicating a weakened investment capacity and willingness among companies [5][6] - It is recommended to focus on sectors with sufficient supply clearance, as any signs of demand recovery could lead to accelerated improvement in supply-demand structure, stabilizing prices and enhancing capacity utilization and profitability [6][9] Supply Clearance Areas - Sectors with significant supply clearance include: - Resource products benefiting from anti-involution: chemicals (coal chemicals, polyurethane, non-metallic materials), building materials (cement products, waterproof materials), non-ferrous metals (copper, lithium), coke, iron ore, and oil & gas refining [4][9] - Consumer goods: small consumer products (dairy, pet food, pig farming, snacks, branded cosmetics), real estate chain (home textiles, home furnishings, personal care small appliances, lighting equipment), and medical beauty consumables [4][9] - Traditional equipment manufacturing: motorcycles, distribution equipment, inverters, commercial cargo vehicles, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, and power transmission and transformation equipment [4][9] - Certain electronic hardware: integrated circuit manufacturing, analog chip design, optical components, semiconductor materials, LEDs, and branded consumer electronics [4][9] - Pharmaceuticals: vaccines, traditional Chinese medicine, and raw pharmaceutical materials [4][9] - New energy industry chain: silicon materials, batteries, photovoltaic processing equipment, wind power generation, as well as gold, gas, and dyeing [4][9] Inventory Depletion and Profitability - Industries experiencing accelerated inventory depletion and marginal improvement in gross margins are expected to have high earnings elasticity and certainty with further demand recovery, including chlor-alkali, fluorochemicals, special steel, modified plastics, and membrane materials [4][6] - Industries with continued supply clearance and declining inventory levels, along with falling gross margins, are likely to see a profitability turning point, such as chemicals (soda ash, organic silicon, polyurethane), coking coal, thermal coal, and glass manufacturing [4][6] Recommendations - Focus on sectors with accelerated supply clearance and low inventory, such as polyurethane, vaccines, dairy products, residential development, non-metallic materials, printing and packaging machinery, instrumentation, raw pharmaceuticals, and integrated circuit manufacturing [4][6] - Attention should also be given to sectors with ongoing contraction in supply and improving gross margins, including branded cosmetics, plastic packaging, pre-processed foods, home textiles, chlor-alkali, coke, special steel, pesticides, cement manufacturing, membrane materials, coatings, abrasives, photovoltaic processing equipment, silicon materials, inverters, medical consumables, and traditional Chinese medicine [4][6]