1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Supply has significantly contracted, providing price support, but high polysilicon inventory suppresses demand, and prices lack upward momentum. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [1][2] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Supply has shrunk in February, supporting prices, but downstream cost pressure has led to weak demand. High inventory is being cleared slowly, suppressing price increases. Before April, the "rush to export" phenomenon has no obvious driving force, and the market is waiting for the supply - demand game [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and declined. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,515 yuan/ton and closed at 8,450 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 277,011 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on February 8, 2026, was 16,737 lots, an increase of 564 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices fell slightly. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton (unchanged). Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - As of February 5, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, a 1.44% increase from the previous week [1] - The demand for industrial silicon continued to slump. The pre - holiday stocking was nearing the end, there were no new orders, major polysilicon manufacturers cut production, supply shrank, and the market mainly focused on inventory reduction [1] - In February, large manufacturers had plans to cut production and shut down, and with the Spring Festival approaching, supply was expected to decrease [1] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. Short - term range trading is recommended. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On February 9, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated and rose. It opened at 49,500 yuan/ton and closed at 49,370 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 38,347 lots (37,934 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 4,706 lots [2] - Polysilicon spot prices rose slightly. According to SMM statistics, N - type material was 48.50 - 58.80 yuan/kg (+0.05 yuan/kg), and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg (unchanged) [3] - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 341,000 tons, a 2.40% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a 3.77% change. The weekly polysilicon production was 20,100 tons, a - 0.50% change, and silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a - 11.66% change [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.18 yuan/piece (-0.05 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.48 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece), and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.28 yuan/piece (-0.03 yuan/piece) [3] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.44 yuan/W (unchanged), and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W (unchanged) [3][4] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W (unchanged), N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W (unchanged), and N - type 210mm was 0.75 - 0.77 yuan/W (unchanged) [4] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term range trading is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain a slight fluctuation in the short term. There is no strategy for cross - period, cross - variety, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the boosting effect of the Spring Festival has faded, terminal stocking is winding down, inventory has significantly accumulated, the egg market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and egg prices still face downward pressure [8][64] - In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and the core driver focuses on the pace of capacity reduction. The inventory of laying hens in production decreased by 0.54% month - on - month in January, and the lackluster chick - replenishment season since August last year will limit the increase in newly - opened laying hens. The supply - side pressure will gradually ease, and the inventory of laying hens in production is expected to turn from year - on - year increase to decrease in the second quarter of this year [8][64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Futures Prices - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the support level and declined, with obvious contract differentiation. As of Friday's close, the main JD2603 contract was reported at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.34%; the JD2605 contract was reported at 3424 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 0.91% [5][12] 3.1.2. Spot Prices - Last week, egg prices in the production and sales areas of the country declined in tandem. Affected by the fading Spring Festival boosting effect and high terminal inventory, prices in the production areas continued to decline, and prices in the sales areas followed suit. The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.76 yuan per catty, down 0.13 yuan per catty from the previous week; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.81 yuan per catty, down 0.09 yuan per catty from the previous week [7][18] 3.1.3. Basis Situation - The basis of egg futures and spot prices narrowed from the previous high. As of last Friday, the main JD2603 contract closed at 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, the spot price of eggs in the main production areas converted to the futures price was 3440 yuan per 500 kilograms, and the basis was 536 yuan per 500 kilograms [21] 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Supply Side - **Laying Hens in Production Inventory**: The inventory of laying hens in production decreased month - on - month. In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 5.31%. Since August last year, the inventory has declined month by month. The newly - opened laying hens this month correspond to the chicks replenished in September last year, but the chick - replenishment season in September was lackluster, and the farming side was cautious in replenishing [27] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample market was 641,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%. The average slaughter age was 487 days, the same as the previous week, and the monthly average age ranged from 473 to 497 days [30] - **Production Area Shipment Volume**: The shipment volume of eggs in the production areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total shipment volume of the main production area sample market was 7,180.27 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.10% and a year - on - year increase of 62.61% [36] 3.2.2. Demand Side - **Sales Volume in Sales Areas**: The sales volume in the sales areas decreased month - on - month. Last week, the sales volume of eggs in the representative sales areas was 7,397.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38% [39] - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: The slaughter volume of old hens in slaughter enterprises decreased month - on - month. Last week, the total slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 2.2165 million, a decrease of 38,500 from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71% [43] - **Chick Sales Volume**: The sales volume of chicks increased month - on - month. Since January, with the repair of farming profits and the low - price operation of chicks, the industry's enthusiasm for replenishment has significantly increased. In January, the total sales volume of representative enterprises was 39.18 million, a month - on - month increase of 5.18% [47] 3.2.3. Inventory Situation - The egg inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory in each link increased significantly month - on - month. As of Friday, the national production - link inventory was 1.47 days, an increase of 0.89 days from the previous week; the circulation - link inventory was 1.77 days, an increase of 0.98 days from the previous week, with an increase rate of 1.72% [51] 3.2.4. Egg - Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - Last week, the cost per catty of eggs was 3.54 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous week, with a profit of 0.23 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 yuan per catty. The farming cost of egg - laying hens was 133.97 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 yuan per hen, and the farming profit was 19.85 yuan per hen, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 yuan per hen [54] 3.2.5. Related Products - **White - Feathered Broilers**: The price of white - feathered broilers in the country decreased month - on - month. The average pre - shed price was 3.73 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 5.97% [60] - **Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market continued, and the price declined weakly. The national average pig slaughter price was 12.22 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per kilogram from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.87% [63] 3.3. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies 3.3.1. Market Outlook - In the short term, the egg futures and spot markets weakened in tandem, and the main contract continued to operate weakly due to the drag of the spot market. In the medium term, egg - laying hen farming profits are in a continuous repair stage, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' expectations for capacity reduction [8][64] 3.3.2. Operation Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Temporarily wait and see, and continuously monitor the pace of capacity reduction and the process of inventory reduction - **Arbitrage**: None - **Options**: None [65]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebar market is in the traditional off - season before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, but the concentrated shutdown of short - process steel mills will gradually relieve the supply pressure. The demand is continuously weak due to the suspension of construction sites and the end of winter storage, with significant inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the short term, with limited fluctuation range. The post - festival market depends on inventory de - stocking speed and policy support, especially the implementation rhythm of "two - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment realization [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 6,899 lots on Wednesday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (614,090 lots). It fell below the short - term 5 - day and medium - term 30 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,100 yuan/ton, a high of 3,105 yuan/ton, closing at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons week - on - week to 1.9983 billion tons, and was 2.216 billion tons higher year - on - year. The production rebounded slightly this week and was significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating accelerated resumption of production by steel mills, which put short - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Demand: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal pattern of construction site shutdowns before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, showing a year - on - year recovery. As of the week ending January 29, the apparent demand was 1.764 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 912,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.785 billion tons. There was still support from winter - storage demand before the festival [2] - Inventory: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, remaining at a low level. As of the week ending January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.76 billion tons. Social inventory was 3.264 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.328 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.388 billion tons. Mill inventory was 1.4913 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 150,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.372 billion tons. The inventory pressure on mills and social inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank signaled moderate monetary easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing expenditure. However, due to the weak real - estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited. The easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Rising prices of raw materials (coking coal and coke), inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and loose macro expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory de - stocking, accelerated resumption of blast - furnace production, cautious winter - storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]

Group 1 - The overall trend in the commodity market is upward, with strong performance in precious metals, black metals (coal and construction materials), crude oil, and non-ferrous metals [2][15] - Key commodities showing strength include gold, silver, tin, coking coal, fuel oil, glass, and PVC, suggesting a preference for bullish operations around these top-performing products [2][15] - Global market dynamics are influenced by inflation expectations supporting commodities, geopolitical conflicts, and energy supply disruptions, with precious metals leading due to safe-haven and anti-inflation demand [2][15] Group 2 - The real estate sector in Hong Kong showed a rebound, driven by bullish sentiment from some private equity firms, although this does not necessarily indicate a rise in real estate prices [3][16] - Policies in cities like Shanghai may not support upward expectations for real estate prices, indicating that a recovery in the sector is premature [3][17] - The A-share market saw brokerage and liquor stocks supporting the market, suggesting potential issues with previously overheated stocks [4][18] Group 3 - For the glass futures (2605), a bullish strategy is recommended with a buying range of 1100-1115 points, an initial stop-loss of 1070-1082 points, and a target profit range of 1132-1142 points [19] - For PVC futures (2605), a similar bullish strategy is advised with a buying range of 5120-5160 points, a stop-loss of 5000-5050 points, and a target profit range of 5230-5280 points [20] - The overall trading results indicate an 8% profit for glass futures, achieving a phase-specific profit target, while PVC futures continue to show a clear bullish trend [22][23] Group 4 - The effectiveness of strategies is based on supply contraction, inventory reduction, and strong expectations driven by capital, with successful risk management practices in place [25] - Highlights of risk control include timely adjustments to stop-loss levels and advising investors on reducing positions to mitigate potential risks [25] - The current commodity market is experiencing high volatility, necessitating close monitoring of global macro data and domestic policy changes for dynamic strategy adjustments [25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the second-hand housing acquisition initiative directly addresses the supply pressure in Shanghai, particularly focusing on older small-sized second-hand homes in districts with a willingness for new home replacements [1] - The report estimates that there are approximately 9.7 million tradable stock housing units in Shanghai, with the pilot districts accounting for about 32% of this total, and homes built before 2000 making up around 15% [1] - The report suggests that the ongoing inventory issues in Shanghai and Beijing may lead to an earlier cyclical turning point, with positive policies aiding in inventory reduction [1] Group 2 - The new land supply scheme is crucial for sustaining expectations of improvement in the real estate market, with a focus on maintaining a reasonable internal funding loop within districts [2] - The report indicates that from Q2 2025, the price trends in high-energy cities are expected to weaken compared to mid-low energy cities, largely due to the land supply increase during the first half of 2025 [2] - It highlights that controlling short-term land supply is essential for stabilizing price expectations, and any strong measures to limit supply could shift local market expectations to a more positive outlook [2] Group 3 - The report anticipates that if local real estate market inventory signals improve, the real estate stock market in 2026 may be primarily driven by beta factors [3] - Recommended mainstream investment targets include A-share companies such as Binjiang Group, New Town Holdings, and China Merchants Shekou, as well as Hong Kong-listed firms like China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [3] - The report notes that for investors with a higher risk tolerance and liquidity requirements, some quality private enterprises in the Hong Kong market undergoing debt restructuring may present rare investment opportunities [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply - disruption gap from Iran still exists, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and the subsequent production recovery of OPEC, the oil price should be taken profit at high levels, and the main operation idea is mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly restricts downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside space [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate on rallies [8]. - For rubber, with the overall decline of commodities and large price fluctuations, it is recommended to trade on the short - term basis of the market, set stop - losses, enter and exit quickly, and strictly control risks. The position of buying the main contract of NR and shorting RU2609 can be re - established [13]. - For PVC, the overall situation of strong domestic supply and weak demand persists. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export - rush sentiment support it, the weak fundamentals affect the industry pattern expectations. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant. The port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so profits can be gradually taken [19]. - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene remains unchanged, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. The coal - based inventory has significantly decreased, supporting the price. The demand is in the off - season, and the raw material inventory of agricultural films may peak [22]. - For polypropylene, the cost - end forecast shows a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no capacity - expansion plans in H1 2026, and the demand is in seasonal fluctuation. With high inventory pressure, the price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [25]. - For PX, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The valuation center has risen, and the short - term profit is also high. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following the crude oil price [28]. - For PTA, the supply side maintains high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber is affected by the off - season. PTA is in the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Although the processing fee has increased significantly, there is a risk of correction in the short term, and there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the import volume in February is expected to be high. The port inventory will continue to accumulate. There is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently moderately high year - on - year, and there is an expectation of further valuation compression in the mid - term without further production cuts in China [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures contract closed down 23.30 yuan/barrel, a decline of 4.93%, at 449.40 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed that the arrival inventory decreased by 2.48 million barrels to 201.25 million barrels, a 1.22% decline. Gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories increased [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas decreased. The main futures contract decreased by 42.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2247 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit increased by 125 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, and the overall basis was reported at 0 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 17 yuan/ton, reported at 1770 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities declined significantly with large price fluctuations. The short - term market is determined by funds, with low correlation to fundamentals. The long and short sides have different views. The overall situation of tire enterprises' production and inventory is complex, and spot prices of some products decreased [10][11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract increased by 57 yuan, reported at 5071 yuan. The spot price in Changzhou increased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The overall production rate increased slightly, while the downstream demand decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories changed in different directions [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene increased, and the basis decreased. The spot price of styrene decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis weakened. Supply - side indicators such as production rate and inventory changed, and demand - side indicators such as the weighted production rate of three S decreased [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate increased, and production and trader inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL5 - 9 spread decreased [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged. The upstream production rate decreased slightly, and production, trader, and port inventories decreased. The downstream average production rate decreased slightly, and the LL - PP spread and PP5 - 9 spread decreased [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract increased by 36 yuan, reported at 7080 yuan. The CFR price increased, and the basis and 3 - 5 spread changed. The production loads in China and Asia increased. Some devices are in the process of restarting. The import volume from South Korea decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract increased by 58 yuan, reported at 5150 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load remained unchanged, some downstream devices were under maintenance or restarting, and the terminal production load decreased. The social inventory increased, and the processing fee changed [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract remained unchanged, reported at 3767 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread changed. The production load increased, some devices at home and abroad were restarted, the downstream production load decreased, and the port inventory increased [32].

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 21029 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 685806 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3095，最高 3118，收于 3099 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 0.51%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 131 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the HC2605 contract rebounded under pressure. Macroscopically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement on February 2nd, clarifying matters related to the deduction of input VAT. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production volume of 3.0921 million tons; terminal demand increased while inventory continued to decline. Overall, the downstream demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, but the weakening of furnace materials and the strong rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running at a low level with a stable green bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,265 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the position volume of the HC main contract is 1,477,230 lots, down 21,563 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 15,885 lots, up 15,291 lots; the spread between the HC5 - 10 contracts is - 21 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the HC on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 204,847 tons, unchanged; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts is 166 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Guangzhou, it is 3,270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it is 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it is 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract is 35 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 793 yuan/wet ton, up 6 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.1852 million tons, up 2.5567 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 441,400 tons, up 22,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.784 million tons, up 164,100 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.45%, down 0.08 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 68.18 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 15 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products by foreign countries, involving carbon steel galvanized wire mesh, cold - rolled steel sheets, hot - rolled coils, stainless - steel washing troughs, and silicon - manganese steel wires. The Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan", encouraging localities to increase subsidies for the replacement of old consumer goods during the Spring Festival, strengthening support for offline physical retail, and mobilizing enterprises to carry out exhibitions and sales activities related to automobiles, home appliances, digital, and intelligent products during the Spring Festival [2]

Core Insights - The company, Yanghe, is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for 2025, with a projected drop of 62.18% to 68.3 billion yuan, marking the largest decline in five years [2][3] - The company is facing challenges due to a deep adjustment period in the liquor industry, characterized by increased competition, reduced market demand, and rising channel inventory [5][14] Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be between 211.58 million yuan and 252.36 million yuan, representing a decline of 62.18% to 68.30% compared to the previous year [4] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to fall between 185.32 million yuan and 226.10 million yuan, down 66.92% to 72.89% year-on-year [4] - Basic earnings per share are projected to be between 1.40 yuan and 1.68 yuan, compared to 4.43 yuan per share in the previous year [4] Product Performance - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor decreased by 36.52%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 27.24% in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - The terminal price of the mid-range product, Mengzhilan M6+, has dropped to 585 yuan, significantly lower than the official price of 998 yuan, indicating a price inversion of over 40% [6][9] - The high-end product, Mengzhilan Handcrafted Class Ten Years, is selling for 888 to 1000 yuan on e-commerce platforms, which is 53% lower than its official price of 1899 yuan [9] Market Challenges - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue both domestically and in external markets, with a drop exceeding 25% in both areas, and a staggering 42.68% decline in external markets [9][10] - The number of distributors has decreased by 268 in external markets, indicating challenges in maintaining market presence [10] Strategic Adjustments - The new chairman, Gu Yu, has initiated strategic adjustments focusing on core brands and optimizing product quality, but the effectiveness of these strategies remains uncertain [12][14] - The company plans to manage inventory and stabilize prices while enhancing brand strength, but internal sources indicate that significant improvements may take time [12]

3，基差：期货贴水现货 142 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周一持仓量增仓 49987 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 1134404 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3093，最高 3139，收于 3098 元/吨，下跌 49 元/吨，跌幅 1.56%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3240 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 53.72 万吨，厂家库存压力同比大幅缓解，社库同比大降，社库压力同比减 轻。给到价格支撑。 ■宏观面：央行释放适度宽松信号，财政部强调支出力度只增不减， 但房地产需求拖累，宏观来说增量需求相对有限，但宽松周期相对起到支 撑，需求上限决定压力。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 1 ...