Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting short - term long positions and profit - taking on dips, and left - side trading for Russia's geopolitical expectations in September and the hurricane supply - disruption season when oil prices drop significantly [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover, while demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. High inventory and weakening supply - demand fundamentals put pressure on prices [4]. - Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern. Although the current price is not high and the room for further decline is limited, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. After the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, volatility is expected to gradually decline [6]. - For rubber, there are different views from bulls and bears. Bulls focus on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal off - season demand, and potential under - performance of production cuts. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term [8][10]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations. It is necessary to observe whether exports can reverse the domestic inventory build - up situation. After the anti - involution sentiment fades, prices have dropped significantly in the short - term [10]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price is expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upwards [13]. - Polyethylene prices will be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term, with high production capacity release pressure in August. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - Polypropylene prices are expected to follow crude oil and oscillate higher in July, with the cost side likely to dominate the market under the background of weak supply and demand in the seasonal off - season [16]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking. With a neutral valuation, there are short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [19]. - PTA is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season for polyester and terminal production, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small. There are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [20]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong. With high overseas device loads and expected increases in arrivals, there is short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price:** WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.02, or 1.52%, to $66.24; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.84, or 1.21%, to $68.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 13.60 yuan, or 2.58%, to 514.3 yuan [1]. - **Data:** China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 1.37 million barrels to 207.19 million barrels, a 0.67% increase; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 1.07 million barrels to 90.85 million barrels, a 1.17% decrease; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 102.78 million barrels, a 0.70% increase; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 193.64 million barrels, a 0.18% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract fell 3 yuan/ton to 2390 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 [4]. - **Fundamentals:** Affected by overall commodity sentiment, it will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Supply pressure will increase as enterprise profits are high and production starts to recover. Demand is weak due to port olefin shutdowns and the traditional off - season. Port inventory is increasing rapidly, and the basis and inter - month spread are falling [4]. Urea - **Price:** On August 4, the 09 contract rose 24 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of + 17 [6]. - **Fundamentals:** Supply is slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Enterprise profits are poor, and production is expected to increase gradually. Export demand is lower than expected, and domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production for autumn is starting, and enterprise inventories are increasing [6]. Rubber - **Price:** NR and RU rebounded after a decline [8]. - **Fundamentals:** Bulls and bears have different views. Bulls expect production cuts and improved demand, while bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations and seasonal off - season demand. Tire factory operating rates are decreasing, and natural rubber inventories are increasing [8][9]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Adopt a neutral approach and trade quickly in the short - term. Consider long positions in RU2601 and short positions in RU2509 for opportunistic band trading [10]. PVC - **Price:** The PVC09 contract fell 34 yuan to 4981 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4960 (+40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 121 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 137 (- 1) yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals:** Cost is stable, overall production capacity utilization is 76.8%, with an increase of 0.05%. Downstream demand is weak, and inventories are increasing. Enterprises' comprehensive profits are at a high level, and valuations are under pressure [10]. Benzene Styrene - **Price:** The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals:** The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. Cost support exists, supply is increasing, port inventory is decreasing significantly, and demand is oscillating upwards in the off - season [12][13]. Polyethylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [15]. - **Fundamentals:** Market expects an improvement in China's PMI in July, and cost support exists. Spot prices are falling, and inventory pressure is loosening. Demand is weak in the off - season, and there is high production capacity release pressure in August [15]. - **Operation Suggestion:** Hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Price:** The futures price fell [16]. - **Fundamentals:** Shandong refinery profits are rebounding, and production capacity utilization is expected to increase. Demand is weak in the off - season, and cost is likely to dominate the market. There is limited planned production capacity release in August [16]. PX - **Price:** The PX09 contract fell 58 yuan to 6754 yuan, PX CFR fell 8 dollars to 838 dollars, the basis was 142 (- 18) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 26 (+4) yuan [18]. - **Fundamentals:** PX production capacity utilization is high, downstream PTA short - term maintenance is increasing, and overall production capacity utilization is decreasing, but PTA inventory is low, and polyester and terminal production are approaching the end of the off - season. PX is expected to continue de - stocking [18][19]. PTA - **Price:** The PTA09 contract fell 46 yuan to 4698 yuan, the East China spot price fell 60 yuan to 4690 yuan, the basis was - 15 (- 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 34 (+4) yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals:** PTA production capacity utilization is decreasing, and new devices are being put into operation. Supply is expected to increase, but due to low inventory levels and the approaching end of the off - season, the negative feedback pressure on PX is small [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price:** The EG09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4389 yuan, the East China spot price fell 25 yuan to 4455 yuan, the basis was 78 (+5) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 28 (+6) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals:** Production capacity utilization is slightly decreasing, overseas device loads are high, and arrivals are expected to increase. Downstream demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but inventory de - stocking is expected to slow down, and valuations are under pressure [21].

Group 1 - The core issue discussed is the contradiction between the apparent improvement in the fundamentals of soda ash, characterized by supply contraction and inventory depletion, and the declining prices observed in the market [1] Group 2 - The article highlights that despite the positive indicators in supply and inventory, market prices for soda ash continue to fall, raising questions about the underlying market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with inventory reduction pressure and upgraded residential demand coexisting, making the construction of "good houses" the core direction for industry transformation [1] Group 1: Industry Consensus - The key to healthy development in real estate is inventory reduction, with the notion that those who can achieve this will be the industry's heroes [4] - The industry requires a "spark" of confidence and action to recover, emphasizing the need for marketing empowerment and government-enterprise collaboration [6] Group 2: Solutions for Inventory Reduction - Experts discussed practical solutions for inventory reduction and "good house" construction, emphasizing the need for digital transformation and collaboration between product quality and marketing [8] - A case study highlighted that real estate does have a future, but it requires new recognition and methods to break through challenges [10] - Design is identified as a key lever for creating "good houses," focusing on cultural roots, scene creation, and quality control [14] Group 3: Marketing Innovations - The need for collaboration among policies, real estate companies, design, and property management is crucial for "good house" construction, aiming to upgrade from merely meeting housing needs to creating quality living experiences [16] - Practical strategies for cost reduction and efficiency improvement in real estate operations were discussed, focusing on tax management throughout the development process [18] - A digital and new media marketing strategy was proposed, detailing a complete digital path for real estate sales that significantly improved customer visit rates and conversion rates [20] Group 4: Insights and Future Directions - The forum reached a consensus that the transformation of the real estate industry requires both internal refinement of "good house" products and external exploration of innovative marketing paths [24] - The event received extensive media coverage, spreading the "good house + good marketing" transformation concept to a broader audience [26] - The industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to "quality competition," with the forum providing practical paths and confidence for future development [28]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The sentiment of commodities has improved, domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and PTA port inventories have declined, with a large number of warehouse receipts being cancelled [2]. - The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the alkyl transfer and TDP profit margins are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90 [2]. - In July, bottle chips and short fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. The port inventory in the market has decreased, and polyester replenishment has improved when the basis weakens. The basis of PTA has recovered from 0 to 30 [2]. - The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA plants has significantly boosted the market [2]. Group 2: Data Summary Price and Spread - PTA spot price increased from 4830 to 4860, PTA closing price rose from 4838 to 4856, MEG domestic price went up from 4510 to 4527, and MEG closing price dropped from 4467 to 4450 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained at 6665, short - fiber basis increased from 109 to 119, and 8 - 9 spread decreased from 44 to 48 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price stayed at 5750, and the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained at 915 [2]. - The price of East China water bottle chips increased from 6003 to 6011, hot - filled polyester bottle chips price rose from 6003 to 6011, and carbonated - grade polyester bottle chips price went up from 6103 to 6111 [2]. - The price of outer - market water bottle chips increased from 790 to 795, bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 363 to 339, T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10350, and T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee stayed at 3685 [2]. - The price of polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S remained at 16300, cotton 328 price dropped from 15165 to 14950, and polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1149 to 1230 [2]. - The price of virgin three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) remained at 7070, the cash flow of hollow short fiber 6 - 15D decreased from 230 to 198, and the price of virgin low - melting - point short fiber stayed at 7370 [2]. Load and Production and Sales - The direct - spun short - fiber load decreased from 92.30% to 93.00%, polyester short - fiber production and sales decreased from 54.00% to 43.00%, and the polyester yarn startup rate decreased from 66.00% to 65.00% [3]. - The recycled cotton - type load index decreased from 51.50% to 46.00% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was persistently low, and the market was affected by factors such as high inventories and weak cost - support during the flood season. It is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production scheduling continued to increase, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later, and cost support remained stable. It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [9][11][12]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also factors like cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week, with continued low demand. Polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy ingot inventories were at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - permeated 553 was 2,027 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the flood season [6]. - Basis: On July 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeated silicon in East China was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase; and major port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling decreased and remained at a low level, demand recovery was at a low level, cost support increased slightly, and it is expected to oscillate between 8735 - 9095 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 25,500 tons, a 10.86% increase from the previous week, and the estimated production scheduling for July was 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.2GW, a 0.90% increase; battery cell and component production showed different trends in production and inventory changes. Overall, demand showed some recovery but might be weak later [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry was 36,170 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 9,330 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 28, the price of N - type dense materials was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 243,000 tons, a 2.40% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: It is expected to oscillate between 48190 - 50620 [12]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Futures contract prices generally declined. For example, the 09 contract price decreased from 9,725 yuan/ton to 8,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.33%. Spot prices of different types of silicon also showed declines [19]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, sample enterprise inventory increased, and major port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Basis: The basis of some contracts changed, with the 09 contract basis at 785 yuan/ton on July 28 [6]. Polysilicon - Price: Futures contract prices decreased, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different changes. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers increased by 4.55% [21]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased, and domestic and European component inventories also decreased [21]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract was - 2905 yuan/ton on July 28 [21].

Group 1 - The company plans to sell part of its assets in the Quanzhou project to optimize resource allocation and accelerate inventory clearance, with a total transaction value of approximately RMB 205,268.94 million (including tax) [5][29][28] - The transaction includes two main asset groups: the first group consists of residential units and unfinished construction projects valued at approximately RMB 9,624.73 million, while the second group includes residential units and parking spaces valued at approximately RMB 195,644.21 million [2][5][16] - The estimated value of the assets being sold is based on an evaluation report from Shanghai Cairui Asset Appraisal Co., which determined the total assessed value of the assets to be RMB 204,732.79 million, indicating a significant appreciation in value for the second group of assets [5][16][28] Group 2 - The transaction is expected to contribute significantly to the company's revenue, with the amount recognized as operating income exceeding 50% of the company's audited revenue for 2024, and the net profit attributable to shareholders also expected to exceed 50% of the audited net profit for the same year [6][29][28] - The company aims to focus its development strategy on the Shanghai and Yangtze River Delta regions, aligning with its long-term goals and benefiting all shareholders [29][28] - The company has received approval from its board of directors and supervisory board for the transaction, which will be submitted for shareholder approval due to its size and impact on financials [29][28]

Group 1 - The manganese silicon futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 6000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 6142.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.30% increase [1] - The overall supply and demand relationship for manganese silicon is stable, influenced by the first round of coke price increases and expectations for a second round, providing cost support [1] - The inventory of silicon iron has decreased by 9.54% in a week, indicating a healthy supply-demand relationship that drives prices [1] Group 2 - The basic fundamentals for manganese silicon have improved this week, with both supply and demand increasing, leading to a slight reduction in inventory [2] - Current market conditions suggest that while there is cost support from manganese ore prices and electricity prices in major production areas, the overall support for current prices is limited [2] - There are expectations for a price decline in manganese ore, which may lead to downward pressure on manganese silicon prices [2]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 504. 3 | 503. 7 | -0. 60 | 成交情况: PTA: 今日大宗化工品行情整体冲高回落,PTA行情窄 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1129. 2 | 1123.6 | -5. 64 | 幅上涨。PTA供应充足,主力供应商继续出货,PTA现 货基差波动有限。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3081 | 1. 3069 | -0. 0012 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 843 | 842 | -1 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 270 | 276 | 6 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The market saw double destocking in both inland and ports. Reasons include slower port unloading and improved MTO profits leading to port purchases. Inland prices fluctuated slightly, with high maintenance losses in July and复产 expectations later. Demand was restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launches affected the market. In ports, the basis strengthened, and with the return of Iranian production, imports were expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and decline slightly in August. MTO maintenance was uncertain after profit repair [1]. - **Urea**: The market was in a state of 'strong expectation vs. weak reality'. The potential for large - scale and long - term maintenance in major production areas was a potential positive factor, but demand was in a lull. The market was mainly affected by the contradiction between supply contraction expectations and weak actual demand, and policy sentiment also had an impact. Future price breakthroughs depend on substantial improvement in demand [16]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved slightly, but with high import expectations and port inventory, its own driving force was limited. Short - term trends may be under pressure. For styrene, the supply - demand outlook was weak, port inventory increased, and the basis weakened. Short - term trends may also be under pressure [18]. - **Polyolefins**: In terms of valuation, marginal profits were gradually recovering, but supply and demand for PP and PE both contracted, and inventories accumulated while demand remained weak. In the dynamic dimension, PP maintenance reached its peak, PE maintenance first increased and then decreased, and imports were still scarce. There was a seasonal improvement in demand at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment was warm, with PP expected to fluctuate weakly and PE to be bought within a range [22]. - **Crude Oil**: Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly due to the structural contradiction between crude oil destocking and macro - level suppression of long - term demand. Although EIA data showed a large reduction in crude oil inventory, the inventory structure was differentiated. The market was also concerned about tariff frictions, which restricted the upward space of oil prices. Short - term trends were likely to maintain a weak oscillation [25]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, although supply was generally stable, demand support was limited, and short - term trends may be under pressure. PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak, and short - term trends may also face pressure. MEG supply - demand was expected to improve in the short term, with support at the bottom. Short - fiber supply and demand were both weak, and the absolute price fluctuated with raw materials. Bottle - chip supply - demand showed some improvement, but absolute prices still followed raw materials [29]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, but high profits led to high production. Downstream non - aluminum demand was in a relative off - season, but there was phased restocking. Short - term macro - level disturbances increased trading risks, and it was recommended to take profits on previous long positions. For PVC, the market was in a season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with no significant improvement in fundamentals. Short - term trading was mainly affected by macro - level sentiment, and it was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices decreased, while the MA91 spread and some regional spreads changed. Spot prices in different regions also showed various fluctuations [1]. - **Inventory**: Middle - sized methanol enterprises' inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all decreased [1]. - **Operating Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise operating rates decreased, while some downstream operating rates had different changes [1]. Urea - **Futures**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and contract spreads changed [9][10]. - **Positions**: Long and short positions of the top 20 decreased, and the long - short ratio slightly increased [11]. - **Raw Materials and Spot**: Some upstream raw material prices were stable, while spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [12]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of some downstream products were stable, and the fertilizer market also had price changes [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, plant operating rates, and inventory levels had different changes [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices, and prices of related products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene changed. Spreads between products also changed [18]. - **Styrene - Related**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased, and related spreads and cash flows changed [18]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and industry operating rates had different trends [18]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot**: Futures closing prices of different contracts decreased, and spot prices in different regions also declined. Spreads and basis also changed [22]. - **Operating Rates and Inventory**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased, and inventory levels in different sectors increased [22]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices and related spreads changed [25]. - **Refined Oil**: Refined oil prices, spreads, and cracking spreads had different fluctuations [25]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as Brent crude oil and PX changed, and downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also showed various trends [29]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: MEG port inventory and arrival expectations, and industry operating rates in different segments had different changes [29]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures**: Spot and futures prices of PVC and caustic soda changed, and spreads and basis also had different trends [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side operating rates and profit levels, and demand - side downstream operating rates and inventory levels had different changes [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market for crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia-related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand weakness in mid-August will limit its upside potential. A target price of $70/barrel for WTI in the September hurricane season is set, and it is recommended to buy on dips and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the current market is significantly driven by news, with increased volatility and higher operational difficulty. It is advisable to observe more and act less. The subsequent domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also constrained by high supply. Currently, the valuation of urea is neutral to low, and it is more inclined to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view should be maintained, and positions should be built at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large increase, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a pullback. A neutral approach with quick entry and exit is recommended [11]. - For PVC, the pessimistic fundamental expectations have improved due to the postponement of Indian anti - dumping, but there are still pressures on supply - demand and valuation. In the short term, the price is strong under the stimulation of anti - dumping postponement and anti - involution sentiment, and the risk of sentiment reversal should be guarded against [13]. - For benzene, the short - term BZN may be repaired, and the price of benzene is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven downward movement to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction. The price of polyethylene is expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA maintenance season is also over, with a relatively high load level. The processing fee has been repaired, and the inventory level is low. In the short term, the negative feedback pressure from the polyester and terminal sectors is small, and PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil [21][23]. - For PTA, in the subsequent period, the supply side is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and the room for PTA processing fee repair is limited. The demand side is under continuous pressure during the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the fundamental situation has changed from strong to weak, but in the short term, the valuation has upward support due to lower - than - expected imports and domestic plant accidents [25]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, 2025, the front - month WTI crude oil futures closed down $0.94, or 1.42%, at $65.42; the front - month Brent crude oil futures closed unchanged at $68.67; the front - month INE crude oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, or 1.11%, at 520.4 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: According to the US EIA weekly data, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.17 million barrels to 418.99 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; SPR inventories increased by 0.20 million barrels to 402.50 million barrels, a 0.05% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.74 million barrels to 231.13 million barrels, a 0.75% decrease; diesel inventories increased by 2.93 million barrels to 109.90 million barrels, a 2.74% increase; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.09 million barrels to 20.23 million barrels, a 0.47% increase; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.69 million barrels to 45.50 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 23, the 09 contract fell 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +6 [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and the profit decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. Overseas plant operating rates returned to medium - high levels, and the market's reaction to overseas supply disruptions ended, with market fluctuations narrowing. The port olefin load increased this week, while the traditional demand was in the off - season, with the operating rates of formaldehyde and acetic acid declining and those of chlorides and MTBE increasing. Overall, the demand was weak. After the methanol price decline, the downstream profit was repaired but remained at a relatively low level. The methanol spot valuation was still high, and the upside was limited in the off - season [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 22, the 09 contract rose 5 yuan/ton to 1817 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +3 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the overall corporate profit was at a medium - low level, with the cost support expected to gradually strengthen. The compound fertilizer operating rate bottomed out and rebounded, entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, and the subsequent operating rate will continue to increase, supporting the demand for urea. The export container collection continued, and the port inventory continued to rise. The subsequent demand is concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed a sideways movement after continuous increases, and the bullish sentiment in the commodity market weakened [8]. - **Industry Data**: As of July 17, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.08%, up 0.54 percentage points from the previous week and 12.19 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 75.62%, up 3.07 percentage points from the previous week and 3.12 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of July 13, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.295 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton increase, or a 0.14% increase; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 797,000 tons, a 0.8% increase; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 498,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease. As of July 20, 2025, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao was 505,600 (-19,000) tons [9][10]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 14,600 (-100) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,795 (-10) dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,800 (-5) dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9,650 (-50) yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11,600 (-100) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PVC09 contract fell 109 yuan to 5,151 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5,070 (-10) yuan/ton, the basis was -81 (+99) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was -118 (-4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Operating Rates**: The cost side remained stable, with the calcium carbide price in Wuhai at 2,250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price at 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price at 820 (0) dollars/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77.6%, a 0.6% increase; the calcium carbide method operating rate was 79.7%, a 0.5% increase; the ethylene method operating rate was 72%, a 0.9% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 40.1%, a 1% decrease. The in - plant inventory was 368,000 (-14,000) tons, and the social inventory was 657,000 (+34,000) tons [13]. Benzene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of benzene decreased, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level compared to the same period, with a large room for upward repair [15][16]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost side: the operating rate of pure benzene increased, and the supply was abundant. The supply side: the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation decreased, but the benzene operating rate continued to rise. The benzene port inventory increased significantly. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate of the three S products increased [16]. Polyolefin Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The black sector showed a pull - back after a rise, and the cost side still provided support. The polyethylene spot price increased, and the PE valuation had limited downward space [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The trader inventory fluctuated at a high level, weakening the price support. In the seasonal off - season, the agricultural film orders were at a low level and fluctuated, and the overall operating rate decreased. In July, the ethylene plant of Huizhou ExxonMobil was put into operation, and the polyethylene price was expected to remain in a downward oscillation [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate was expected to gradually recover, with the propylene supply gradually returning [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In the demand side, the downstream operating rate decreased seasonally. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the price of polypropylene in July was expected to be bearish [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PX09 contract fell 26 yuan to 6,860 yuan, the PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 842 dollars, the basis was 71 (+14) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 84 (-12) yuan [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The PX load in China was 81.1%, a 0.2% decrease; the Asian load was 73.6%, unchanged. In terms of plants, Shenghong reduced its load due to a problem with the upstream plant, the overseas plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and Tianjin Petrochemical planned to shut down. The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. In July, South Korea exported 238,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days, a 5,000 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory at the end of May was 4.346 million tons, a 165,000 - ton decrease from the previous month [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the PTA09 contract fell 10 yuan to 4,784 yuan, the East China spot price rose 35 yuan to 4,810 yuan, the basis was 2 (0) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 4 (-6) yuan [24]. - **Fundamentals**: The PTA load was 79.7%, unchanged. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The terminal draw - texturing load decreased by 1% to 61%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 56%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on July 11 was 2.172 million tons, a 38,000 - ton increase [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On July 24, the EG09 contract fell 11 yuan to 4,436 yuan, the East China spot price rose 11 yuan to 4,501 yuan, the basis was 62 (+2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 0 (+6) yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side: the ethylene glycol load was 66.2%, a 1.4% decrease, with the synthetic gas - based load at 70.2%, a 2.9% decrease, and the ethylene - based load at 63.8%, a 0.4% decrease. The downstream load was 88.3%, a 0.5% decrease. The expected import arrival was 157,000 tons, and the departure from East China on July 22 was 5,000 tons, with the inventory out - flow increasing. The port inventory was 533,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton decrease [25].