Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the outlook for polysilicon futures remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in the market [1] - Institutions analyze that the current market condition reflects a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, suggesting a short-term bullish trend for polysilicon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The futures of polysilicon have risen again, following the upward trend of industrial silicon futures, indicating a market sentiment of "weak reality, strong expectations" for polysilicon, with a short-term outlook expected to remain strong [1] Group 1 - Polysilicon futures are experiencing an increase, driven by the rise in industrial silicon futures [1] - Institutional analysis suggests that the current market for polysilicon is characterized by a disparity between actual performance and market expectations [1] - The short-term forecast for polysilicon is anticipated to be on the stronger side [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for polysilicon is improving, but actual transaction volumes remain limited, influenced by policy expectations and price fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 41,330 yuan/ton, up 1.94% on the day and over 16% for the week [1] - Since July, the market has shifted to a bullish sentiment due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a cumulative increase of over 28% in polysilicon futures prices over three weeks [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures to 9% and raised margin requirements for speculative trading to 11% [1] Group 2: Spot Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 37,100 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.92%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 35,600 yuan/ton, up 6.27% [2] - Despite a significant price increase of 25% to 35% in polysilicon quotes, the volume of new orders remains limited, indicating a cautious market response [2] - The current market focus has shifted towards policy regulation, with the demand side showing signs of weakness as downstream production of solar modules has been adjusted downwards [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current market environment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, highlighting the disparity between market sentiment and actual demand [3] - The rise in polysilicon prices is positively impacting industrial silicon prices, suggesting a potential increase in demand for industrial silicon due to improved profitability in polysilicon [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to rise, driven by policy guidance and expectations of effective capacity clearing and structural adjustments in the industry, despite a lack of substantial support from actual transactions in the spot market [1][2][6] Price Trends - The main polysilicon futures contract saw an increase of over 5%, settling at a 3.40% rise, with mainstream enterprise prices climbing to 40 yuan/kg and above [1] - Recent adjustments in polysilicon prices include a rise of 3000 yuan/ton for N-type re-investment material to 39,000 yuan/ton, and other N-type materials also saw significant price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market has not changed significantly, with a balance in monthly supply and demand, and ongoing destocking [2] - The market is experiencing a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, where the actual performance in the spot market does not align with optimistic forecasts [4] Industry Responses - Major polysilicon companies are recalculating their full costs and reporting to management, with potential penalties for selling below cost [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is prompting the photovoltaic sector to respond actively, leading to noticeable price increases in polysilicon [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain a wide fluctuation range, with no official guidelines on cost pricing measures yet [3] - The overall demand for polysilicon is under pressure due to declining profits in silicon wafer companies and high inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to remain weak in the short term but may see improvements in the long term due to policy support and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [6]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 06 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货金融期货日报 | | | 二 、 | 日度价格变动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-11 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 近一月走势 | | | IH | 2,682.2 | 2,682.4 | -0.2 | -0.01% | | | 股指期货 | IF | 3,883.6 | 3,878.8 | 4.8 | 0.12% | | | | IC | 5,780.0 | 5,761.2 | 18.8 | 0.33% | | | | IM | 6,156.8 | 6,144.0 | 12.8 | 0.21% | | | 股票指数 | 上证50 | 2,691.3 | 2,692.1 | -0.9 | -0.03% | | | | 沪深300 | 3,892.2 | 3,894.6 | -2.4 | -0.06% | | | | 中证500 | 5,799.9 | 5,792.9 | 7.0 | ...