Core Viewpoint - The commodity futures market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the black and building materials sectors, leading to increased activity in risk control departments of futures companies [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On July 31, the black and building materials sectors saw a continued decline, with coking coal futures contracts hitting the limit down [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a significant drop, with the main contracts experiencing declines of approximately 7.69% to 8.00% [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The previous surge in coking coal prices was driven by expectations of supply contraction due to "anti-involution" policies, which led to a decrease in coal inventory at coking coal mines [3] - As of the end of July, the inventory of coking coal at 523 coking coal mines fell below 3 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [3] - Despite the price rebound, the overall supply-demand balance remains oversupplied in the short term, with daily production of coking coal increasing for four consecutive weeks [3][4] Group 3: Price Transmission and Market Sentiment - The price increase in coking coal has not effectively transmitted to downstream products, as prices for related chemicals and steel have not risen proportionately [4] - Downstream coking enterprises are still facing losses, and there has been no significant increase in coke production [4] - Market sentiment is cooling, leading to a retreat in coking coal and glass prices from their highs, indicating a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The rebound in coking coal prices driven by "anti-involution" expectations is expected to stabilize, with a potential price correction ahead, possibly dropping below 1,000 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract [4] - Continuous monitoring of the "anti-involution" policies and their impact on the coking coal and glass industries is necessary [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bullish sentiment for polysilicon remains strong, with expectations of continued price increases driven by policy support and market dynamics [1][2][3] - Polysilicon futures saw a significant increase, reaching a limit up of 10.42%, indicating a strong market reaction and potential for further gains [1] - The supply side is stable with slight production increases in certain regions, while overall industry production is expected to grow, although demand remains weak [2][3] Group 2 - The market sentiment is primarily driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics, which remain loose [2][3] - There is a recommendation for traders to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, as the market is currently experiencing high bullish sentiment [3] - Attention should be paid to the performance of futures contracts, particularly the long-term contracts, which are expected to show overall strength [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rebound in soybean meal futures, with a further upward shift in price levels, driven by a "weak reality, strong expectations" sentiment in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Soybean meal futures continue to see a reduction in open interest, indicating a potential recovery in prices [1] - Institutional analysis suggests strong support for soybean meal prices from underlying market conditions [1] - The expectation of strong support at lower price levels for soybean meal is noted, indicating a bullish outlook [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 17, the coke main contract rallied at the end of the session, continuing its strong performance. The spot price of coking coal increased, leading to higher losses for coke enterprises and stronger cost support, which raised the expectation of coke price hikes. The futures market maintained a pattern of both supply and demand decline, but strong expectations dominated the market. Affected by multiple positive news, the coke main contract is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [5][31]. - On July 17, the coking coal main contract closed at 918.5 points, up 1.55% intraday. Although the short - term fundamentals of coking coal have not improved significantly, positive news has improved market sentiment. With strong expectations leading the market, coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term [6][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In June 2025, China's raw coal output was 421.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 2.404559 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative raw coal output in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi increased by 10.1%, 0.7%, and 3.3% year - on - year respectively [8]. - On July 17, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market was strong. The highest transaction price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal was 1320 yuan/ton, and local coal enterprises generally quoted 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat price) | 1220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price) | 1270 yuan/ton | 3.25% | 9.48% | - 21.60% | - 37.44% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 940 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 39.74% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1270 yuan/ton | 2.42% | 4.96% | - 14.77% | - 39.23% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1310 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.80% | - 14.38% | - 36.71% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1519.0 | 1.00 | 1519.5 | 1485.0 | 23460 | 1519 | 44754 | - 534 | | Coking Coal | | 918.5 | 1.55 | 919.0 | 890.0 | 992915 | 17586 | 551465 | - 10542 | [14] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [15][19][25]. Market Outlook - Coke is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term due to positive news and strong expectations. It is necessary to closely monitor domestic and foreign policies [5][31]. - Coking coal futures are expected to remain strong in the short term, with strong expectations leading the market. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant policy dynamics [6][32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the outlook for polysilicon futures remains positive, with expectations of continued strength in the market [1] - Institutions analyze that the current market condition reflects a "weak reality, strong expectations" scenario, suggesting a short-term bullish trend for polysilicon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The futures of polysilicon have risen again, following the upward trend of industrial silicon futures, indicating a market sentiment of "weak reality, strong expectations" for polysilicon, with a short-term outlook expected to remain strong [1] Group 1 - Polysilicon futures are experiencing an increase, driven by the rise in industrial silicon futures [1] - Institutional analysis suggests that the current market for polysilicon is characterized by a disparity between actual performance and market expectations [1] - The short-term forecast for polysilicon is anticipated to be on the stronger side [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment for polysilicon is improving, but actual transaction volumes remain limited, influenced by policy expectations and price fluctuations [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have seen a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a three-month high of 41,330 yuan/ton, up 1.94% on the day and over 16% for the week [1] - Since July, the market has shifted to a bullish sentiment due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a cumulative increase of over 28% in polysilicon futures prices over three weeks [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the price fluctuation limits for polysilicon futures to 9% and raised margin requirements for speculative trading to 11% [1] Group 2: Spot Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has risen to 37,100 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.92%, while N-type granular silicon has reached 35,600 yuan/ton, up 6.27% [2] - Despite a significant price increase of 25% to 35% in polysilicon quotes, the volume of new orders remains limited, indicating a cautious market response [2] - The current market focus has shifted towards policy regulation, with the demand side showing signs of weakness as downstream production of solar modules has been adjusted downwards [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The current market environment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" dynamic, highlighting the disparity between market sentiment and actual demand [3] - The rise in polysilicon prices is positively impacting industrial silicon prices, suggesting a potential increase in demand for industrial silicon due to improved profitability in polysilicon [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon futures continues to rise, driven by policy guidance and expectations of effective capacity clearing and structural adjustments in the industry, despite a lack of substantial support from actual transactions in the spot market [1][2][6] Price Trends - The main polysilicon futures contract saw an increase of over 5%, settling at a 3.40% rise, with mainstream enterprise prices climbing to 40 yuan/kg and above [1] - Recent adjustments in polysilicon prices include a rise of 3000 yuan/ton for N-type re-investment material to 39,000 yuan/ton, and other N-type materials also saw significant price increases [1][6] Market Dynamics - The current supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market has not changed significantly, with a balance in monthly supply and demand, and ongoing destocking [2] - The market is experiencing a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, where the actual performance in the spot market does not align with optimistic forecasts [4] Industry Responses - Major polysilicon companies are recalculating their full costs and reporting to management, with potential penalties for selling below cost [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is prompting the photovoltaic sector to respond actively, leading to noticeable price increases in polysilicon [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may maintain a wide fluctuation range, with no official guidelines on cost pricing measures yet [3] - The overall demand for polysilicon is under pressure due to declining profits in silicon wafer companies and high inventory levels [5] - The market is expected to remain weak in the short term but may see improvements in the long term due to policy support and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.13% and a trading volume of 1.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.12%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes fell 0.03% and 0.06% respectively. The market volatility declined after sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the week, with the non-ferrous and TMT sectors performing strongly and the home appliance, coal, and food and beverage sectors weakening. Since June, Chinese assets have shown strong performance, with both stocks and bonds rising, pricing in potential policy changes in June. The market expects positive progress in Sino-US communication, changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum in mid-to-late June. The PPI data indicates that China's economic inflation remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may shift to a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with consumption and technology likely to dominate the market style. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow for three consecutive quarters but remained below the policy rate, while the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, and the ROE was still in the bottoming-out and stabilizing stage [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract rose 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rose 0.4bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 rose 1bp to 1.54%. In June, the bond market's focus returned to changes in the capital market. Due to the large maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit and the continued increase in government bond issuance, concerns about a temporary tightening of the capital market in June increased. However, the central bank's early announcement of a 50 billion yuan net injection of 3-month outright reverse repurchase operations significantly alleviated market concerns, and the bond market showed a slight bullish steepening trend. In the short term, the expectation of capital market tightness has weakened, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Stock Index Futures**: The A-share market showed mixed performance, with different indexes having different trends. The market volatility declined, and certain sectors performed strongly while others weakened. Since June, Chinese assets have performed well, pricing in potential policy changes. The economic inflation remains low, and the market style may be dominated by consumption and technology. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow, but the net profit increased, and the ROE was in the bottoming-out stage [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Different maturities of treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank market interest rates rose. In June, the bond market focused on capital market changes, and concerns about tightening increased initially but were alleviated later. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: The IH contract fell 0.01%, the IF contract rose 0.12%, the IC contract rose 0.33%, and the IM contract rose 0.21%. Among the stock indexes, the SSE 50 fell 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 rose 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.09% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The TS contract fell 0.01%, the TF contract fell 0.06%, the T contract fell 0.05%, and the TL contract rose 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and reached consensus on implementing the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks framework, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases and urges the US to abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of each contract [7][9][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bonds, the historical basis trends of different maturities of treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides the historical trends of the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate, the euro against the RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates of different tenors, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [21][22][25][26].