Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.89%. In the current situation of increasing supply and demand, industrial contradictions continue to accumulate, inventory increases, and steel prices are still under pressure. It is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil plate showed a weak operation, with a daily decline of 1.58%. The demand for hot - rolled coils has certain resilience, providing support for prices. However, concerns about external demand remain, and the supply contraction is difficult to sustain. It is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore weakened again, with a daily decline of 2.67%. The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, while the supply is stable. The ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the ore valuation is relatively high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points; the PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points; the PMI of small enterprises was 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points [6]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales exceeded 700,000 vehicles, and it is almost certain that the annual sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [7]. - From January to August 2025, nearly 110 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products were announced, involving various steel products [8]. 2. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the national average price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. For hot - rolled coil plate, the Shanghai price was 3,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the national average price was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 788 yuan/ton, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia was 10.11 yuan, down 0.05 yuan; from Brazil was 24.51 yuan, up 0.14 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 101.81, down 0.09, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 103.60, down 0.30 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,115 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.89%, the trading volume was 1,342,816, an increase of 534,144, and the open interest was 1,633,714, an increase of 578,004 [11]. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil plate futures was 3,303 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.58%, the trading volume was 587,250, an increase of 59,364, and the open interest was 1,195,204, an increase of 28,571 [11]. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 766.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.67%, the trading volume was 393,789, an increase of 178,541, and the open interest was 453,950, a decrease of 19,658 [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories (such as rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil plate inventory, national 45 - port iron ore inventory, etc.), steel mill production (such as 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace opening rate, 87 - independent electric furnace opening rate, etc.) [13][26]. 5. Future Market Judgment - For rebar, supply and demand both increased. The weekly output increased by 59,100 tons, and demand improved with a weekly increase of 94,100 tons in apparent demand. However, high - frequency daily transactions were sluggish. With accumulated industrial contradictions and increasing inventory, it is expected to continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [34]. - For hot - rolled coil plate, supply and demand were stable. The weekly output decreased by 5,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 5,500 tons. Although there is demand resilience, external demand concerns remain, and it is expected to continue the weakening trend in oscillation [34]. - For iron ore, supply and demand both weakened. Steel mill production declined, and ore demand is expected to fall. The domestic port ore arrival increased, and overseas supply remained high. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price will continue the weak oscillation operation [35].

Report Overview - The report provides daily strategy references and analyzes various industries and commodities, including macro finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers trend judgments and trading suggestions for each product. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As the key nodes of domestic and international macro - events in September approach, the stock index is expected to experience increased volatility. It is recommended to moderately reduce positions and adjust the layout to be mainly long - oriented [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut remains high, providing short - term support for gold prices [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: After continuous strong and volume - increasing rises, market volatility is amplified by rapid capital flow. With the approaching of September's macro - event nodes, volatility is expected to intensify. Suggest reducing positions moderately and adjusting to a long - biased layout [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central bank interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Gold**: The high probability of a September interest rate cut supports gold prices in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Market risk appetite cools down, and silver prices may fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Recent market sentiment is volatile, and copper prices are oscillating [1]. - **Aluminum**: In the domestic consumption off - season, downstream demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices are weak. For alumina, production and inventory are both increasing, with a weak fundamental situation. There is an opportunity to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and zinc prices have rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment is volatile. Nickel prices follow the macro trend in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and look for opportunities to sell on rallies. In the long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen, and social inventories are stable. After profit repair, steel mills are resuming production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading and wait for opportunities to sell on rallies. The cash - and - carry arbitrage can gradually take profits [1]. - **Tin**: Powell's dovish remarks improve macro sentiment and boost tin prices. The short - term supply and demand are both weak. Attention should be paid to the expected seasonal maintenance of Yunnan smelters [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply in the southwest and northwest is resuming, and there is high hedging pressure. The market sentiment is strong. There is an expectation of long - term capacity reduction, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Resource - end disturbances occur frequently. Downstream short - term replenishment is large, but the subsequent replenishment space is limited [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term macro sentiment has improved, and the price has rebounded, but the domestic fundamental pressure is still large, and the upward space may be limited [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Valuations have returned to neutral, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the macro - driving force is positive, showing a volatile trend [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The "anti - involution" is long - term, and it follows the black metal sector in the short term [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: They follow the black metal sector in the short term. The "anti - involution" is long - term. The reality is weak, and the market returns to trading fundamentals, with the near - term being weak and the far - term being strong [1]. - **Glass**: The reality is weak, expectations have declined, and prices are moving downward [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Steel inventory is accumulating faster than the seasonal norm. The market suppresses steel prices to balance supply and demand. Coke and coking coal fundamentals are weakening marginally and are expected to be volatile and weak [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's low inventory and high export quotes, along with the main consumption countries' peak - season stocking and the long - term "strong expectation" of B50 implementation, are positive factors. The less - than - expected exemption from the US for small refineries is seen as a "bad news is out" situation [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is an expectation of reduced soybean arrivals, a fourth - quarter consumption peak season, and an open export trade flow, leading to a fourth - quarter de - stocking expectation. USDA's August reduction of new - crop area and Sino - US trade relations support the price from the raw material cost side [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Russian and Ukrainian rapeseed production has decreased, and sunflower seed production in the Black Sea region has also fallen short of expectations. The Ministry of Commerce's initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed dumping and increased customs duty deposit requirements are expected to reduce subsequent rapeseed supply. The risk lies in the possible alleviation of the rapeseed shortage through Australian rapeseed imports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased in volume in the short term, with the near - month squeezing - the - shorts logic dominating. The height of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar has rebounded with a bottom divergence, combined with peak - season demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5600 - 6000, with limited upward space [1]. - **Corn**: The supply of remaining grain is tightening, but downstream feed enterprises adopt a low - inventory strategy, and deep - processing losses drag down corn demand. Under the expectation of new - season selling pressure, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Sino - US peace - talk expectations and domestic reserve sales are negative for the soybean meal market. The import cost provides support, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policy changes [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The outer - market quotation has increased. The 11 - contract is under pressure due to old positions. Consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Log Futures**: Near the delivery, the current price is within the range of receiving and delivery costs, with a reasonable valuation. It is expected to oscillate between 790 - 810 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The near - month contract is weak due to spot influence. In the second half of the year, as the inventory gradually recovers, attention should be paid to weight reduction and consumption. The 11 and 01 contracts have peak - season expectations [1]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Factors such as India reducing Russian oil purchases, OPEC+ continuing to increase production, and Trump's tariff increase on India cause demand concerns. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil trend [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the crude oil trend. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Domestic产区 rainfall affects raw material cost support. Inventory depletion is slow. As the commodity approaches the 09 - contract delivery, the short - term market sentiment turns bearish [1]. - **BR Rubber**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil fundamental situation is loose. The BR market is consolidating and rising steadily. Attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance of butadiene rubber plants [1]. - **PTA**: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, and production has increased. The spread between PX and naphtha has widened. With improved sales and inventory depletion, especially in filament inventory, profits have been significantly repaired. However, some downstream plants have strong maintenance expectations [1]. - **PE**: Export sentiment has eased slightly, and domestic demand is insufficient, limiting the upward space. There is support from "anti - involution" and the cost side. With a warm macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is oscillating weakly [1][2]. - **Short - Fiber**: More short - fiber factories are undergoing maintenance. Under the situation of high basis and rising costs, the number of futures market warehouse receipts is gradually increasing [1]. - **Styrene**: There are rumors of a major reform in the domestic petrochemical and refining industries, and South Korean naphtha cracking plants plan to reduce production. As the market strengthens, trading volume gradually weakens [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - Short - term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. The market sentiment is cautiously optimistic due to improved macro - atmosphere and peak - season expectations. The main contract reference range is 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. However, if demand doesn't improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall [1]. Alumina - The overall supply of alumina is in an oversupply pattern. Although cost and some factory overhauls provide support, the spot and futures prices are under pressure. The main contract reference range is 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and short - term downward and upward spaces are limited [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are marginally improving. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The main contract reference range is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [3]. Copper - Copper prices are at least expected to remain volatile. The price may enter a new upward cycle when the commodity and financial attributes of copper resonate. The main contract reference range is 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term due to improved interest - rate cut expectations. The main contract reference range is 22000 - 23000 yuan/ton. Upward continuous rebound requires better - than - expected demand, and downward breakthrough needs ultra - strong TC and continuous inventory accumulation [8]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to be adjusted within a range. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. The market has cost support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. The market is still restricted by weak spot demand, and the cost support remains [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate around 80,000 yuan/ton. The supply - side news is not fully confirmed, and the improved fundamentals provide support for the price [14]. Tin - Tin prices have risen due to the dovish signal from the Fed. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the price is expected to remain high and volatile [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20780 yuan/ton, with a change of 0 yuan/ton; the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: The average price of alumina in Shandong is 3180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.31%) [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price is 20550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2511 - 2512 is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton (0.24%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is 15 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (0.16%); the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 13100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between 2510 - 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton (- 0.97%); the spread between 2509 - 2511 is 240 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price is 270000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (0.11%); the spread between 2509 - 2510 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: In July, aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month; the aluminum profile production rate was 50.5%, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Alumina**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the daily average production exceeded 260,000 tons, a record high [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.5 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.6 million tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [3]. - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; the import volume was 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [4]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; the import volume was 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel**: In July, the production of refined nickel products was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the import volume was 7.3 million tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the demand was 96,100 tons, up 2.50% month - on - month [14]. - **Tin**: In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - **Container Shipping**: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - **Copper**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - **Zinc**: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - **PTA - PX**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol**: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP**: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE**: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt**: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - **Urea**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - **Domestic**: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - **Overseas**: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - **Core Logic**: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - **Core Logic**: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - **Important Information**: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - **Core Logic**: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - **Core Logic**: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - **Core Logic**: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - **Important Information**: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - **Core Logic**: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - **Important Information**: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - **Core Logic**: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - **Important Information**: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - **Core Logic**: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - **Core Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - **Important Information**: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - **Core Logic**: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - **Core Logic**: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - **Core Logic**: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - **Core Logic**: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber prices declined [43]. - **Core Logic**: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: Urea prices rose [46]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - **Core Logic**: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of ethylene glycol has been mainly fluctuating within a range. The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). Overall, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is basically balanced, lacking obvious drivers, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. - The prices of PX - PTA have been maintaining a range - bound consolidation. The PX supply is expected to increase, and the PTA processing fee has been at a historical low. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of PX - PTA is not significant, mainly following the cost - end fluctuations and delivery logic. In the medium - term, the structural contradiction between PX and PTA needs to be alleviated through additional PTA maintenance. It is recommended to expand the PTA processing fee on dips [5][6]. Summary by Directory MEG - **Inventory**: The inventory at East China ports has reached 55.3 tons, an increase of 3.7 tons compared to the previous period. Next Monday, the port's visible inventory is expected to increase by about 3 tons [1][2]. - **Device**: Sheng Hong's 1.9 million - ton device restarted after a short - term shutdown; Zhe Petrochemical's Phase II Line 1 with a capacity of 800,000 tons restarted and produced; Shenhua Yulin's 400,000 - ton device reduced its load for maintenance. Overseas, Saudi Sharq3's 550,000 - ton device stopped again [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side shows a pattern of decreasing oil - based production and increasing coal - based production, with the total load dropping to 66.39% (-2.01%). The demand side has seen a slight increase in the load of filaments and staple fibers, and the polyester load has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%). The terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [2]. PX - TA - **PX**: Some PX devices have increased their loads, with the load rising to 84.3% (+2.3%). The subsequent supply is expected to increase, maintaining a tight - balance pattern. The PXN has shrunk to 253 (-8), and the PX - MX has recovered to 119.5 (+3) [5]. - **PTA**: The supply and demand of PTA lack obvious drivers, and the price has been fluctuating within a range. The PTA cash - flow processing fee has been at a low level, and there is a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in August. The demand side has seen an increase in the polyester load, and the terminal orders are expected to be released during the peak season [5][6]. Polyester - **Price and Profit**: The prices of POY, FDY, and DTY have increased, while the prices of staple fibers, chips, and bottle chips have decreased slightly. The processing fees of filaments and bottle chips have been repaired [10]. - **Load**: The comprehensive load of polyester has increased to 89.4% (+0.6%), and the loads of filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips have also increased to varying degrees [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of filaments has decreased, while the inventory of staple fibers has increased slightly. The inventory of bottle chips has remained stable [10]. Device Operation - **MEG Device**: Multiple ethylene - based and coal - based MEG devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load - adjustments. Overseas, many MEG devices have also been shut down or are under maintenance [16]. - **PX Device**: Some PX devices in the Chinese mainland and overseas have been shut down for maintenance, and some have restarted [17]. - **PTA Device**: Some PTA devices in the Chinese mainland have been shut down, reduced their loads, or restarted [18]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, export, supply, demand, and inventory data of MEG from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. - **PX - TA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the production, import, supply, consumption, and inventory data of PX and PTA from January 2024 to December 2025 [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Futures are oscillating warmly, but the sentiment of the spot market is not significantly boosted. The prices of producers are mostly stable, and traders are mainly focused on active sales. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with purchases based on low - price and just - in - time needs. - The upstream device operating load continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still at a high level, the impact of maintenance is decreasing. With the approaching of new capacity release plans, the pressure of supply increase is gradually emerging. - The downstream factories are still affected by the off - season, and the willingness to stock up is low. It is expected that the demand will gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month. - The cost - side support is somewhat differentiated. Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall again. - The fundamental loose pattern will continue to restrict the upward space. With the release of new capacity and the expected stocking demand in the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin prices may show a trend of bottom - building through oscillation followed by a rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The plastic 2509 contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (0.27%), with a trading volume of 176,000 lots and a decrease in positions. The PP main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.41%), with a decrease in positions. - **Supply**: The upstream device operating load is increasing. The impact of PP maintenance is decreasing, and new capacity release plans are approaching. For PE, new capacity has been put into operation in July, and more is expected in August. - **Demand**: Downstream factories are in the off - season, with low stocking willingness. It is expected that demand will improve in the second half of the month. - **Cost**: Coal prices are likely to rise, while oil prices may fall [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 835,000 tons, a 12.08% increase from the previous working day, the same as the same period last year. - The PE market prices fluctuated slightly. The LLDPE prices in North, East, and South China were in the ranges of 7180 - 7410 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and 7320 - 7700 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: Tables show the opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change rates, open interest, and open interest changes of plastic and PP futures contracts [3]. - **Other Data**: Graphs present information such as L and PP basis, L - PP spread, and crude oil futures settlement prices. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market increased by 245 yuan/ton to 6500 - 6580 yuan/ton. The PP market was slightly adjusted, with different price ranges in North, East, and South China [7][8].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated June 30, 2025, covering copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Copper: The weak US dollar supports the price [2] - Zinc: It is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price [2] - Lead: There are expectations for the peak season, which supports the price [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has loosened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: The inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Metal Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, up 1.31% during the day and unchanged at night. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,879 US dollars, down 0.17%. Trading volume and positions of Shanghai copper increased, while LME copper's trading volume decreased and positions increased. Inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 1,650 tons, and LME copper decreased by 1,800 tons. The LME copper premium decreased by 79.16 US dollars [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Nasdaq and S&P reached record highs due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and interest - rate cut expectations. Japan's JX Metal will cut refined copper production. China's May copper concentrate imports decreased by 17.55% month - on - month and increased by 6.61% year - on - year. Antofagasta hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres. Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved. The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/ton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,410 yuan, up 0.76%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,778.5 US dollars, up 0.31%. Trading volume of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. Positions of Shanghai zinc increased, and LME zinc decreased. The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased. Zinc inventories of both Shanghai and LME decreased [7] - **News**: From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,125 yuan, down 0.58%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 2,041.5 US dollars, up 0.15%. Trading volume of both Shanghai and LME lead decreased, while positions of Shanghai lead increased and LME lead decreased. The premium of Shanghai 1 lead remained unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium decreased slightly. Lead inventories of both Shanghai and LME increased [10] - **News**: Similar to zinc, from January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May alone, it decreased by 9.1% [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,480 yuan, down 350 yuan. The stainless - steel main contract was at 12,620 yuan, down 15 yuan. Trading volumes of both decreased significantly. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 700 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased slightly. The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi increased slightly [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. A nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production. An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue maintenance from June to July. The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban. Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park [12][13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]