Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints - The price of gold first rose and then fell this week. The short - term tariff issue is moving towards easing, and the market trading logic has changed, which is bearish for gold. The US economic data is mixed, and the short - term monetary policy is cautious, lacking positive factors for the gold price. Gold is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to the callback pressure brought by the phased recovery of market risk appetite [2][3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 2.6% to - 3.68 yuan/gram; the internal - external futures price difference (internal - external) increased by 157.2% to 13.80 yuan/gram. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3.5% to 17,847 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 1.73% to 38,117,334 ounces. The SPDR ETF holding volume increased by 0.43% to 934.21 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long position increased by 11.3% to 130,505 lots. The US Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3% to 4.51%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.24% to 99.2 [10] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 99.2, the US Treasury bond yield was 4.5%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.5%, the VIX index dropped to 16.77, the US overnight secured financing rate was 4.29%, the oil price rose 6.9%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.31%. The real interest rate rose to 2.19%, and the gold price rose 0.6% [2][9][16][20] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed - country stock markets mostly rose, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.13%. US and German bonds rebounded, with a US - German spread of 1.93%. The UK Treasury bond yield was 4.64%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.46%. The euro rose 0.43%, the British pound rose 0.51%, the Japanese yen fell 0.58%, and the Swiss franc rose slightly by 0.01%. Non - US currencies mostly appreciated [24][29][32] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly increased to 130,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding volume slightly increased to 934 tons. The RMB appreciated, and the Shanghai gold premium narrowed. Gold rose slightly, silver rose sharply, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 92 [37][39] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's May CPI and import - export data, US May New York Fed inflation expectation; Tuesday: US May NFIB small - business confidence index, China's May financial data; Wednesday: US May CPI; Thursday: US May PPI and initial jobless claims, 10 - year US Treasury bond auction; Friday: US June University of Michigan consumer confidence and inflation expectation [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to concerns about inflation risks, Fed officials are cautious about rate cuts, and there may be a liquidity shock when US Treasuries mature in June - July. However, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries and persistent geopolitical risks may cause precious metal prices to be weak first and then strong. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 29, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 772.28 yuan/gram, down 7.96 yuan from the previous day and 15.78 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 210,848, a decrease of 79,564 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 195,076, a decrease of 25,436 from the previous day. The inventory was 17,247 kilograms, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 762.49 yuan/gram, down 13.23 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 45,904, a decrease of 2,192 from the previous day. The position was 216,784, an increase of 1,732 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 0.18, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 1.83 [1]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 8,224 yuan/kilogram, down 1 yuan from the previous day and 39 yuan from last week. The trading volume was 659,531, an increase of 23,931 from the previous day. The position of the active futures contract was 345,595, a decrease of 4,681 from the previous day. The inventory was 10,359,190 grams. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 8,202 yuan/kilogram, down 42 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was - 54,128, and the position was 3,389,800, an increase of 26,074 from the previous day. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 14, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 22 [1]. - **International Gold**: The closing price of COMEX gold futures on May 29, 2025, was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day and 50.85 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 225,050, an increase of 3,574 from the previous day. The position was 236,717, an increase of 129,959 from the previous day. The inventory was 38,984,927 troy ounces. The price of London gold spot was 3,312.40 US dollars/ounce, up 11.55 US dollars from the previous day. The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF were 925.61 tons, an increase of 4.59 tons from the previous day. The holdings of iShare Gold ETF were 431.81 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons from the previous day [1]. - **International Silver**: The closing price of COMEX silver futures on May 29, 2025, was 33.44 US dollars/ounce, up 0.34 US dollars from the previous day and 0.18 US dollars from last week. The trading volume was 49,553, an increase of 8,975 from the previous day. The position was 5,523, an increase of 104,823 from the previous day. The inventory was 498,127,853.72 troy ounces. The price of London silver spot was 33.37 US dollars/ounce, up 0.09 US dollars from the previous day [1]. Important Information - **US**: The US Federal Appellate Court approved the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the ruling of a lower - court that prohibited the implementation of several US government tariff executive orders. Trump met with Powell for the first time since 2019, asking for a rate cut, while Powell insisted on policy independence. The scale of US Treasuries maturing in June - July, mainly short - term, is 1.2 trillion and 1.46 trillion US dollars respectively. The concentrated maturity and re - issuance of US Treasuries may cause a liquidity shock. The US SPCI manufacturing and service industry FINI in June were all 52.3, higher than expected and the previous value. The addition of tariffs has raised concerns about a rebound in consumer inflation, delaying the Fed's rate - cut expectation to September/December [1]. - **Europe**: The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. The manufacturing PMIs of the eurozone, Germany, and France in May were 49.4/48.8/49.5, all higher than expected and the previous value. The annual rate of the eurozone consumer price index CPI in May was 2.2%, higher than expected but flat with the previous value. European Central Bank economists predict that the neutral interest rate is 1.75 - 2.25%, so the European Central Bank may cut interest rates in June and cut rates about twice more before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June, continuing to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of UK government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK SBCI manufacturing (service) industry PRIT in May was 45.1 (50.2), lower (higher) than expected and the previous value. However, since the annual rates of the consumer price index CPI (core CPI) in April were 3.5% (3.8%), higher than expected and the previous value, the market expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates only once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and has been reducing the quarterly bond - buying scale by 400 billion yen since August 2024. The annual rates of the consumer price index CPI in Japan (Tokyo) in April were 3.6% (3.5%), in line with (higher than) expectations and the previous value. The largest Japanese labor union Rengo achieved an average salary increase of 6.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hope to raise interest rates to 1% in the second - third quarter, so the market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on pullbacks. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 28 - 30 US dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 35 - 36 US dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 8,600 - 8,900 yuan/kilogram [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed officials are cautious about cutting interest rates due to inflation risks, and the concentrated maturity of US Treasury bonds from June to July may cause a liquidity shock. However, due to the difficult - to - reduce US fiscal deficit, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and unresolved geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may first weaken and then strengthen. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Central Bank Policies and Economic Indicators - **US**: The scale of short - term Treasury bonds maturing in June and July is $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion respectively, which may cause a liquidity shock. The May SPGI manufacturing and service PMI were both higher than expected and the previous value. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has been postponed to September/December due to concerns about inflation rebound. The US Treasury's cash account balance may decrease to release liquidity, and the CBO predicts that the Treasury funds may be exhausted as early as August - September, which will make the Fed slow down the reduction of its balance sheet [2][7][11]. - **Europe**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and is expected to cut interest rates in June and about twice more before the end of 2025. The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May and is expected to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [2]. - **Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, and there is still a possibility of further interest - rate hikes as some officials hope to raise rates to 1% in the second and third quarters [3][4]. 3.2 US Treasury Bond Market - **Inflation Expectation**: The implied medium - and long - term inflation expectation of US Treasury bonds has begun to decline, although the one - year and five - year consumer inflation expectations in May continue to rise [15][17]. - **Yield**: The medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields have begun to decline but are still at a high level. The medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bond yields remain stable. The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury bond yields is positive but narrowing [18][20][21][26]. - **Financial Pressure Index**: The US OFR financial pressure index has increased compared with last week [29][31]. 3.3 US Economic Indicators - **Loan and Credit**: The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks has increased, while the weekly rate of credit card and car loans has decreased [33][35]. - **Retail Sales**: The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales has increased, indicating that the US consumer industry remains prosperous [37][39]. - **Mortgage**: The fixed mortgage rates for 15 - year and 30 - year terms have increased, causing the MBA mortgage application activity index to decline. The sales volume of new and existing homes in April has increased [41][43]. - **Unemployment**: The number of initial jobless claims is lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims is higher than expected and the previous value, indicating that the labor demand in the US job market remains strong [45][47]. 3.4 International Bond Yield and Exchange Rate - **Bond Yield Difference**: The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany has increased [49][51]. - **Exchange Rate**: The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar [52][53]. 3.5 Precious Metal Market - **Gold**: The volatility of the US gold ETF index has decreased. The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures has increased. The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE has decreased. The domestic gold futures price premium is in a reasonable range. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going long on the SHFE gold basis [54][57][61][66][72]. - **Silver**: The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures has increased. The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and SGE has decreased. The domestic silver futures and spot price premiums are in a reasonable range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for silver - related arbitrage opportunities [77][81][85]. - **Precious Metal Ratio**: The "gold - to - silver ratio" is far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - term light - position arbitrage opportunity of going short on the "gold - to - silver ratio". The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" are also far higher than the 90% quantile in the past five years, and corresponding arbitrage opportunities are recommended [97][99][100][102].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to high uncertainty and inflation risks, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlight a consensus on the risks of inflation, suggesting that rate cuts may be difficult [1] - The expectation for rate cuts has been pushed back to September or December due to concerns over consumer inflation driven by tariffs [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points in April, with expectations for further cuts later in the year [1] - The Bank of England reduced its key rate to 4.25% in May, with market expectations for only one more cut by the end of the year [1] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates around July, following a recent increase to 0.5% [1] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The 5-year U.S. Treasury auction showed strong overseas demand, reaching a historical high [1] - The upcoming maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds, totaling $1.2 trillion and $1.46 trillion in June and July respectively, may lead to liquidity shocks [1] - Japan's 40-year bond auction saw a bidding ratio at its lowest since July 2024, although results were better than the previous week [1] Group 4: Precious Metals Investment Outlook - Due to the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices may experience fluctuations, with potential for recovery after initial declines [1] - Investors are advised to consider long positions during market pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels for various commodities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The "One Big Beautiful Bill" passed in the House is expected to significantly increase the U.S. fiscal deficit over the next decade, confirming previous analyses that the U.S. is unlikely to effectively reduce its deficit due to structural issues like income inequality and re-industrialization [1][3][6]. Summary by Sections Overview of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" - The bill includes tax cuts, spending reductions, an increase in the debt ceiling, and policies on defense and immigration [1][3]. Key Components of the Bill - **Tax Cuts**: The bill aims to permanently extend and expand the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), with an estimated static reduction in fiscal revenue of approximately $4.3 trillion over the next decade [3][5]. - **Spending Cuts**: It proposes significant cuts to social welfare programs, including about $1 trillion in Medicaid cuts and $230 billion in cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) [5][6]. - **Defense and Immigration Policies**: Increased spending on defense and border security is included, supporting Trump's initiatives [6]. - **Debt Ceiling Increase**: The bill proposes raising the debt ceiling by $4 trillion [6]. Fiscal Impact - The bill is projected to increase the static fiscal deficit by approximately $2.8 trillion from FY2025 to FY2034, with dynamic adjustments raising this figure to about $3.2 trillion [6][9]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a deficit increase of $3.7 trillion over the same period [6]. Short-term and Long-term Implications - In the short term, the bill may lead to a slight decrease in the deficit for FY2025, but overall, the deficit is expected to remain high, around $1.9 trillion, with a deficit rate of 6.4% [9]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. will continue to face challenges in reducing the deficit due to ongoing structural issues and the need for fiscal stimulus to address income inequality and infrastructure deficits [11][15]. Market and Policy Responses - The anticipated increase in debt issuance may lead to liquidity pressures in the market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider measures such as restarting quantitative easing (QE) [25][26]. - The bill's passage could also accelerate financial reforms aimed at stabilizing the market and increasing liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market [26].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariffs on the global market, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relations and their implications for various asset classes and economic indicators. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current Tariff Levels and Expectations** Current tariff levels are better than expected, with a 10% reciprocal tariff seen as a short-term optimal state. The effective tax rate in the U.S. has decreased, but increased trade volume has expanded the base, necessitating attention to potential agreements before exemptions expire [3][5][6]. 2. **U.S. Urgency to Lower Tariffs** The U.S. is eager to reduce high tariffs to alleviate supply shortages and inflation pressures while maintaining trade with China. The Trump administration has employed negotiations, tax cuts, and pressure on the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges [6][7]. 3. **Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports** The trade war has led to a significant decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., prompting China to seek alternative markets. The reduction in tariffs has improved China's port transportation business, although risks from potential U.S. export restrictions remain [8]. 4. **Performance of Alternative Assets** Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold have performed strongly, with some funds flowing back to Europe. Emerging markets, particularly India, have shown similar trends, while commodities have suffered due to recession fears [9]. 5. **Market Reactions to Tariff Adjustments** U.S. stocks rebounded faster than Hong Kong stocks during tariff escalations, driven by liquidity shocks and better-than-expected performance from major tech companies [10]. 6. **Liquidity Shocks and Investment Opportunities** Liquidity shocks, often triggered by unexpected events, provide significant buying opportunities as central banks typically intervene to stabilize markets [11]. 7. **U.S. Economic Resilience Amid Tariff Pressures** Despite tariff pressures, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to alleviate pressure, but supply-side inflation remains a concern [12][14]. 8. **Inflation Expectations** Current inflation pressures in the U.S. have eased, with projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index around 4% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at approximately 3.5% by year-end [15]. 9. **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook** The Federal Reserve's future policy direction may differ from market expectations, with potential for small rate cuts in the fourth quarter, contrary to the belief that rising tariffs would necessitate immediate cuts [16]. 10. **Challenges Facing U.S. Financial Markets** The U.S. financial markets face challenges from a peak in government bond maturities and debt ceiling issues, leading to increased supply of government bonds and pressure on bond yields [17]. 11. **Dynamic Balance of U.S. Accounts** The U.S. maintains a dynamic balance through its current account deficit, which facilitates global capital inflows to purchase U.S. assets, impacting the overall economic landscape [26]. 12. **Sector Allocation Strategies** Investment strategies should focus on sectors that are less reliant on external demand, such as technology and domestic consumption, while maintaining a balance between dividend and growth stocks [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Future Trends** Market sentiment has improved, reducing the likelihood of strong reactions to positive data. Investors are advised to manage positions carefully to withstand potential volatility [28]. 2. **Impact of Tariff Reductions on Chinese Markets** Tariff reductions have lessened the negative impact on Chinese markets, with projections for Hong Kong stock earnings to grow by 4-5% in 2025 [27]. 3. **Long-term Macro Logic vs. Short-term Operations** While long-term macro logic is important, overemphasis on it can lead to misjudgments in short-term trading strategies [21]. 4. **Recent Trends in Southbound Capital Flows** Recent weakness in southbound capital flows is attributed to individual investors and trading funds, rather than institutional investors, indicating a return to normal levels [33]. 5. **Real Estate Market Performance** The real estate market has shown weakness due to demand and investment return rate discrepancies, necessitating further monetary policy adjustments [36]. 6. **Technological Developments and Economic Expectations** Advances in technology, such as DeepSeek, have improved economic expectations, but fiscal stimulus is still needed to address challenges from private sector leverage and tariff impacts [38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of tariffs, market reactions, and economic indicators.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent liquidity risks in the U.S. market due to the unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, which may lead to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields and systemic financial risks [1][12]. Summary by Sections Basis Trading Overview - Basis trading involves arbitrage between the cash, futures, and repo markets of U.S. Treasuries, where investors buy cash Treasuries and sell futures to profit from the price difference [2]. - The cost of basis trading primarily consists of borrowing costs in the repo market, while the return is derived from the basis, which is the difference between futures and cash prices [2][6]. Risks of Basis Trading - The main risks associated with basis trading include: 1. **Repo Roll-Over Risk**: Increased borrowing costs if liquidity in the repo market tightens [6]. 2. **Margin Risk**: Potential losses if futures and cash prices diverge significantly [6]. 3. **Leverage Risk**: High leverage can amplify the aforementioned risks [6]. Current Market Conditions - As of Q3 2024, hedge funds hold approximately $2.06 trillion in long positions in cash Treasuries and have about $1 trillion in net repo borrowings, indicating a total basis trading volume between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [9][11]. - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the VIX and MOVE indices reaching recent highs, which may trigger increased margin requirements for hedge funds [12][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing an oversupply, exacerbated by a new debt ceiling proposal that could increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade [16][19]. - Weak demand, particularly from foreign investors, has been noted since late last year, which could further pressure liquidity in the market [16][19]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., contributing to a potential "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [19][20]. - Hedge funds, as significant net buyers of Treasuries since the beginning of the balance sheet reduction, have substantial exposure across various asset classes, which could facilitate the spread of risks across markets [22][24]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of systemic financial risks is increasing, particularly with the potential for liquidity shocks following the resolution of the debt ceiling in May-June [26]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to restart quantitative easing (QE) to stabilize the market, which could further exacerbate wealth inequality and contradict current economic policies aimed at strengthening the middle class [26].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is facing a systemic risk, characterized as a short but intense storm, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear phase. However, this does not imply that all global markets will follow suit, as China's capital market may present mid-term opportunities after a short-term risk assessment [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has clearly entered a bear phase, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, which have detrimental effects on global wealth [4][13]. - Recent declines in gold and Bitcoin indicate a shift in market logic from risk aversion to liquidity shocks [5][15]. - The VIX volatility index and other indicators suggest that short-term liquidity concerns are overshadowing market sentiment [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economy is expected to face recession, with inflation risks likely to rise in the second half of the year [7][20]. - The impact of tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth over 25 years, with a potential 1% decline this year [20]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to market conditions will be significantly less than in 2020, limiting its capacity for quantitative easing [8][21]. Group 3: China Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market's performance will depend on internal factors and fundamental conditions rather than external shocks [9][26]. - China's risk premium is currently at a historical high, indicating that the economy may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery once policies are implemented [27][28]. - The mid-term outlook for China's capital market is optimistic, driven by technological advancements and new consumption trends [28][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on active defense, avoiding leverage, and waiting for market stabilization before making significant investments [40][41]. - Strategic asset allocation should prioritize technology, new consumption sectors, and traditional assets like gold and military stocks [43]. - The current market environment presents a unique opportunity for value investment, particularly in the context of China's economic resilience and potential recovery [38][44].