Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariffs on the global market, particularly focusing on the U.S.-China trade relations and their implications for various asset classes and economic indicators. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Current Tariff Levels and Expectations** Current tariff levels are better than expected, with a 10% reciprocal tariff seen as a short-term optimal state. The effective tax rate in the U.S. has decreased, but increased trade volume has expanded the base, necessitating attention to potential agreements before exemptions expire [3][5][6]. 2. **U.S. Urgency to Lower Tariffs** The U.S. is eager to reduce high tariffs to alleviate supply shortages and inflation pressures while maintaining trade with China. The Trump administration has employed negotiations, tax cuts, and pressure on the Federal Reserve to address economic challenges [6][7]. 3. **Impact of the U.S.-China Trade War on Exports** The trade war has led to a significant decline in Chinese exports to the U.S., prompting China to seek alternative markets. The reduction in tariffs has improved China's port transportation business, although risks from potential U.S. export restrictions remain [8]. 4. **Performance of Alternative Assets** Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold have performed strongly, with some funds flowing back to Europe. Emerging markets, particularly India, have shown similar trends, while commodities have suffered due to recession fears [9]. 5. **Market Reactions to Tariff Adjustments** U.S. stocks rebounded faster than Hong Kong stocks during tariff escalations, driven by liquidity shocks and better-than-expected performance from major tech companies [10]. 6. **Liquidity Shocks and Investment Opportunities** Liquidity shocks, often triggered by unexpected events, provide significant buying opportunities as central banks typically intervene to stabilize markets [11]. 7. **U.S. Economic Resilience Amid Tariff Pressures** Despite tariff pressures, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with no clear signs of recession. The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to alleviate pressure, but supply-side inflation remains a concern [12][14]. 8. **Inflation Expectations** Current inflation pressures in the U.S. have eased, with projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index around 4% and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at approximately 3.5% by year-end [15]. 9. **Federal Reserve Policy Outlook** The Federal Reserve's future policy direction may differ from market expectations, with potential for small rate cuts in the fourth quarter, contrary to the belief that rising tariffs would necessitate immediate cuts [16]. 10. **Challenges Facing U.S. Financial Markets** The U.S. financial markets face challenges from a peak in government bond maturities and debt ceiling issues, leading to increased supply of government bonds and pressure on bond yields [17]. 11. **Dynamic Balance of U.S. Accounts** The U.S. maintains a dynamic balance through its current account deficit, which facilitates global capital inflows to purchase U.S. assets, impacting the overall economic landscape [26]. 12. **Sector Allocation Strategies** Investment strategies should focus on sectors that are less reliant on external demand, such as technology and domestic consumption, while maintaining a balance between dividend and growth stocks [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment and Future Trends** Market sentiment has improved, reducing the likelihood of strong reactions to positive data. Investors are advised to manage positions carefully to withstand potential volatility [28]. 2. **Impact of Tariff Reductions on Chinese Markets** Tariff reductions have lessened the negative impact on Chinese markets, with projections for Hong Kong stock earnings to grow by 4-5% in 2025 [27]. 3. **Long-term Macro Logic vs. Short-term Operations** While long-term macro logic is important, overemphasis on it can lead to misjudgments in short-term trading strategies [21]. 4. **Recent Trends in Southbound Capital Flows** Recent weakness in southbound capital flows is attributed to individual investors and trading funds, rather than institutional investors, indicating a return to normal levels [33]. 5. **Real Estate Market Performance** The real estate market has shown weakness due to demand and investment return rate discrepancies, necessitating further monetary policy adjustments [36]. 6. **Technological Developments and Economic Expectations** Advances in technology, such as DeepSeek, have improved economic expectations, but fiscal stimulus is still needed to address challenges from private sector leverage and tariff impacts [38]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of tariffs, market reactions, and economic indicators.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices rebounded after a significant drop, with attention on the ongoing US-China trade dynamics and recession expectations in the US. The weekly performance showed US copper up 3.75%, London copper up 2.97%, and Shanghai copper down 4.6%. The decline in copper prices led to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper rod operating rates at 74.76%, up 0.21 percentage points week-on-week. Social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 14.80% to 267,200 tons, while Shanghai copper inventory fell by 18.96% to 182,900 tons. Short-term price rebounds may be limited by US recession expectations, with key focus areas being US-China trade developments, US economic and inflation data, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4] - Aluminum prices fell due to tariff impacts, with signs of weakening demand in the peak season and continued inventory depletion. The alumina market remains oversupplied, with prices dropping 5.12% to 2,870 RMB/ton. The operating capacity of alumina plants decreased by 1.91 million tons to 84.82 million tons/year. Electrolytic aluminum prices fell 3.72% to 19,675 RMB/ton, with profit margins down 15.54% to 3,650 RMB/ton. Overall, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum shows no increase in capacity, leading to a potential shortage this year, which could drive aluminum prices up significantly. Recommended stocks include Hongchuang Holdings, Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., and China Aluminum [4] - Lithium prices continued to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton. The supply side remains oversupplied, with inventory increasing by 1.3% to 131,000 tons. Demand growth is hindered by tariff impacts on downstream exports, with expectations for a narrowing of the oversupply throughout the year. Recommended stocks include Yahua Group, Zhongjin Lingnan, Yongxing Materials, and Ganfeng Lithium [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The US March CPI was lower than expected at 2.4%, with initial jobless claims matching expectations at 223,000 [8] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - London copper rose 2.97%, while Shanghai copper fell 4.60%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 18.96% [21][24] 2.2. Aluminum - London aluminum increased by 0.50%, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 3.72%. The operating profit for aluminum companies fell by 15.54% [33] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell 0.57%, while Shanghai lead prices decreased by 2.44%. London zinc prices rose 0.34%, but Shanghai zinc prices fell 2.36% [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - London tin prices dropped 12.17%, and Shanghai tin prices fell 13.22%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell 3.11% to 71,600 RMB/ton, with continued oversupply in the market [77] 3.2. Cobalt - Overseas MB cobalt prices increased by 0.16% to 15.88 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell [88]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent liquidity risks in the U.S. market due to the unwinding of basis trades by hedge funds, which may lead to a significant increase in U.S. Treasury yields and systemic financial risks [1][12]. Summary by Sections Basis Trading Overview - Basis trading involves arbitrage between the cash, futures, and repo markets of U.S. Treasuries, where investors buy cash Treasuries and sell futures to profit from the price difference [2]. - The cost of basis trading primarily consists of borrowing costs in the repo market, while the return is derived from the basis, which is the difference between futures and cash prices [2][6]. Risks of Basis Trading - The main risks associated with basis trading include: 1. **Repo Roll-Over Risk**: Increased borrowing costs if liquidity in the repo market tightens [6]. 2. **Margin Risk**: Potential losses if futures and cash prices diverge significantly [6]. 3. **Leverage Risk**: High leverage can amplify the aforementioned risks [6]. Current Market Conditions - As of Q3 2024, hedge funds hold approximately $2.06 trillion in long positions in cash Treasuries and have about $1 trillion in net repo borrowings, indicating a total basis trading volume between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion [9][11]. - The market is currently characterized by high volatility, with the VIX and MOVE indices reaching recent highs, which may trigger increased margin requirements for hedge funds [12][16]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing an oversupply, exacerbated by a new debt ceiling proposal that could increase the deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade [16][19]. - Weak demand, particularly from foreign investors, has been noted since late last year, which could further pressure liquidity in the market [16][19]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks may lead to capital outflows from the U.S., contributing to a potential "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [19][20]. - Hedge funds, as significant net buyers of Treasuries since the beginning of the balance sheet reduction, have substantial exposure across various asset classes, which could facilitate the spread of risks across markets [22][24]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of systemic financial risks is increasing, particularly with the potential for liquidity shocks following the resolution of the debt ceiling in May-June [26]. - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to restart quantitative easing (QE) to stabilize the market, which could further exacerbate wealth inequality and contradict current economic policies aimed at strengthening the middle class [26].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is facing a systemic risk, characterized as a short but intense storm, with the U.S. stock market entering a bear phase. However, this does not imply that all global markets will follow suit, as China's capital market may present mid-term opportunities after a short-term risk assessment [2][3][13]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market has clearly entered a bear phase, influenced by trade wars and tariffs, which have detrimental effects on global wealth [4][13]. - Recent declines in gold and Bitcoin indicate a shift in market logic from risk aversion to liquidity shocks [5][15]. - The VIX volatility index and other indicators suggest that short-term liquidity concerns are overshadowing market sentiment [14][15]. Group 2: Economic Predictions - The U.S. economy is expected to face recession, with inflation risks likely to rise in the second half of the year [7][20]. - The impact of tariffs could lead to a 0.5 percentage point decrease in U.S. GDP growth over 25 years, with a potential 1% decline this year [20]. - The Federal Reserve's ability to respond to market conditions will be significantly less than in 2020, limiting its capacity for quantitative easing [8][21]. Group 3: China Market Outlook - The Chinese capital market's performance will depend on internal factors and fundamental conditions rather than external shocks [9][26]. - China's risk premium is currently at a historical high, indicating that the economy may have reached a bottom, with potential for recovery once policies are implemented [27][28]. - The mid-term outlook for China's capital market is optimistic, driven by technological advancements and new consumption trends [28][35]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on active defense, avoiding leverage, and waiting for market stabilization before making significant investments [40][41]. - Strategic asset allocation should prioritize technology, new consumption sectors, and traditional assets like gold and military stocks [43]. - The current market environment presents a unique opportunity for value investment, particularly in the context of China's economic resilience and potential recovery [38][44].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to significant market volatility, with the effective tax rate in the US reaching its highest point in nearly a century, at least 23% [2][4] - The tariffs are expected to increase inflation by approximately two percentage points, raising overall inflation to between 4% and 5%, which complicates the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates [8][11] - The market is currently facing liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and concerns regarding the strength of the US dollar, which could impact GDP by at least 0.7 percentage points and reduce profit expectations to around 5% [11][12] Summary by Sections Impact of Reciprocal Tariffs - The tariffs have resulted in a uniform 10% baseline tariff on all trade partners, with some partners, like China, facing additional tariffs due to non-tariff barriers [2][4] - Market reactions include a sell-off of high-valuation stocks, a decline in US equities and the dollar, and a rise in bonds and gold due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][3][5] Future Monetary Policy Framework - Future monetary policy will need to address domestic liquidity and policy space, with central banks potentially taking measures to counteract market volatility caused by tariffs [6] - The liquidity risk can be monitored through indicators like the VIX index, with current issues primarily concentrated in the stock market [7] Inflation and Economic Growth - The tariffs are projected to push inflation higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and increasing the risk of stagflation [8][11] - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased competition in the tech sector and the impact of tariffs on cross-border capital flows [9][10] Specific Industry Impacts - The tariffs will significantly affect export-oriented sectors in China, with an overall tariff level exceeding 70% for certain goods, leading to a need for fiscal support to mitigate profit losses [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to face pressure, with potential volatility increasing due to external challenges from the tariffs [13] Long-term Risks and Considerations - The report highlights three main risks: liquidity shocks, stagflation risks, and the influence of the dollar on global capital allocation [11] - The reciprocal tariffs may lead to a broader impact on global trade dynamics, affecting specialized supply chains and trade relationships [24]

招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周贵金属市场大幅波动，以伦敦银计价的国际银价跌幅超过 10%；消息面，美国参议院通过预 算决议，特朗普税收、边境安全和军事优先事项法案获"关键突破"。经济数据方面，美国 3 月非农就业人口 增长 22.8 万，高于预期的增加 14 万，前值从增加 15.1 万下修为增加 11.7 万；3 月失业率升至 4.2%，预期 4.1%，前值 4.1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 11 吨至 1186 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。随着 黄金回调，白银价格也出现了明显回落。操作上，建议白银空单继续持有注意仓位或者做多金银比。风险点： 美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | 铜 | 市场表现：清明节外盘铜期货市场暴跌，周一国内开盘前，美铜的暴跌依然继续，对应国内价格可能要去到 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 71000 元以下。观察黄金和比特币的情况，我们认为 ...

清明假期期间，随着我方的反制措施发布，市场的声音迅速两极分化，极左和极右——要么是美方赢麻了、中要跪，要么是美方蠢坏了、中必赢。 但理性来看（当然也许我说理性，很多人也觉得不够理性），不管是对等关税，还是强硬反制， 从资产价格的角度看，无疑是双输的局面 。 就好像一对重量级拳手，在擂台对垒，原先都戴着拳套，有裁判居间维持秩序，看似拳拳到肉，但实际因为有拳套的缓冲，以及可以搂抱暂停，所以顶多 是皮开肉绽，不至于伤筋动骨，最后不管是点胜还是KO，双方都可以拿着千万美刀的出场费，潇洒地离开。 而这轮贸易战掀桌子后， 就好像两位拳手把拳套给脱了 ，裁判也没有了， 直接硬碰硬，这就导致，不管最后是谁笑到最后，双方一定都会给对方，造成 更大的伤害。 本文确保都是干货，建议收藏。 节前A股收盘后，全球金融市场又发生了 足以载入史册的危机模式 ——标普500，周四、周五两日，累计下跌10.8%，而上一次两日跌幅超过10%，还是 在2020年3月，美股因疫情熔断的期间；再上一次，是2008年的金融危机；而大多数人印象比较深刻的，去年7-8月，美股因日元加息导致的大跌过程中， 标普500连续两日最大跌幅都没有超过5%。 所以，说 ...