Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the double-silicon futures market maintained a volatile trend, with narrowing price fluctuations, presenting a game between cost support under macro - policy guidance and fundamentals. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 114 on improving the capacity tariff mechanism for the power generation side may significantly raise the structural cost bottom of double - silicon. [5] - Macroscopically, domestically, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; overseas, the sharp rise and fall of gold prices have affected commodity sentiment, and Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [5] - Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mills' alloy restocking before the Spring Festival may have ended, resulting in weak support for raw material demand. [5] - Fundamentally, the logics of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain differentiated. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, but the fundamental pressure is acceptable due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts. The supply of silicomanganese has declined due to production cuts in the southern region, but the upward space is significantly restricted by the substantial increase in warehouse - receipt inventory. Considering the increase in the inventory usage days brought by the pre - festival restocking of steel mills, the demand side still shows resilience. In the short term, the prices of double - silicon will maintain a range - bound oscillation between the expectation of rising costs and the actual inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the specific implementation of electricity price regulations in major production areas and the pace of post - festival demand recovery. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, the price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,652 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 788,860 lots and an open interest of 111,150 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 104,761 lots. [8] - This week, the price of the silicomanganese 2605 contract was firm, closing at 5,872 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 818,531 lots and an open interest of 361,914 lots, a week - on - week increase of 13,356 lots. [8] - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country showed a slight upward trend. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. [9] - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,480 - 5,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton. [9] 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese was 192,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, with a change rate of - 0.4%. The weekly operating rate was 36.21%, unchanged from last week. The production reduction was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 25%. [12][13] Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The output of building materials increased year - on - year and week - on - week, providing some support for the demand for silicomanganese. [20] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 373,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. [27] - As of January 30, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 37,913, a week - on - week increase of 2,382, an increase of 11,910 tons, and the current converted inventory was 189,565 tons. [27] - In January, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 17.48 days (+1.96 days), 15.1 days in the northern region (+1.31 days), 18.95 days in the eastern region (+1.43 days), and 20.91 days in the southern region (+4.64 days). [27] Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment volume has returned to the previous high level, and the short - term supply - demand of manganese ore is in a weak balance. [31] - The manganese ore port clearance volume remains at a high level, and the pace of ore preparation may slow down before the Spring Festival. [32] - Overseas mining enterprises' quotations have increased, and the price of oxidized ore at the port has slightly loosened. [38] Cost and Profit - The cost center is relatively stable, and the futures market profit has increased with the market. [41] 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 98,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production increase was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 100%. [45][46] Demand - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in December was 282,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons. The export volume of ferrosilicon in December was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. [53] - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The total output of magnesium metal in January was 90,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. [58] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 680 tons. [60] - As of January 30, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 8,560, a week - on - week decrease of 600, a decrease of 3,000 tons, and the current converted inventory was 42,800 tons. [60] - In January, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 17.52 days (+2.11 days), 15.52 days in the northern region (+1.76 days), 18.43 days in the eastern region (+1.38 days), and 21.09 days in the southern region (+4.45 days). [60] Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has increased with the market. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival operating rhythm of factories. [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mixed performance, with casting aluminum alloy futures experiencing a downward trend, closing at 23,110.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price limit for casting aluminum alloy futures to 7% and modified the margin requirements for maintaining positions to 8% and for general positions to 9%, effective from January 30, 2026 [2] - Supply side analysis indicates tight supply of scrap aluminum, with stable prices and an increase in imported raw materials entering the domestic market, while pre-holiday stocking demands from some enterprises are providing strong support for aluminum alloy prices [2] Group 2 - Demand side analysis reveals that due to the off-season impact, downstream die-casting enterprises have seen limited increases in actual orders, primarily focusing on replenishing essential stock and managing inventory, with insufficient stocking willingness due to high aluminum prices [2] - Future market outlook suggests that while costs for casting aluminum alloys have significantly retreated, the ongoing supply disruptions and seasonal tightness in raw material supply are expected to provide strong short-term price support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a strong overall sentiment, driven by supply reductions and cost support, despite weak demand conditions [3] Supply - As of January 2026, the estimated crude steel production from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.426 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [2] - The production forecast for February is 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [2] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts and initiating maintenance ahead of the holiday season [2] Inventory - Social inventory has slightly accumulated, with a trend of decreasing warehouse receipts [2] - As of January 30, the social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 457,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory is 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4,950 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The nickel ore market is tight due to limited shipments from Indonesian mines, with nickel ore premiums rising to $28-32 per wet ton [3] - The high-nickel pig iron market is experiencing weak inquiries, leading to a narrowing of price increases [3] - The chromium iron market remains firm due to limited resource circulation and slowed supply growth [3] Demand - Demand is weak, with traditional and emerging sectors showing reduced purchasing activity due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - The expected impact on production from the 300 series stainless steel is 485,000 tons due to maintenance and production cuts [3] Price Outlook - The main price reference is set between 14,200 and 15,200, with expectations of strong fluctuations in the short term [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of PP is supported by the rising oil price. The cost side shows that the prices of crude oil and propane are strong, and there is a valuation differentiation within olefins. The supply side has no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies. The demand side has limited overall fundamental support at the end of the year, and the PDH profit at the cost side remains low. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6870, with a daily increase of 1.36%. The trading volume was 564,860, and the position changed by 13,300 [1] - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was -150 yesterday, compared with -148 the day before. The spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was -32 yesterday, compared with -36 the day before [1] - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China yesterday were 6,660 yuan/ton, 6,720 yuan/ton, and 6,830 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared with the day before [1] Spot News - The market is strong, the upstream pre - sale pressure is temporarily not large, the basis is weakly stable, and the trading atmosphere is average. The downstream profit has recovered month - on - month, the start - up and orders have increased, but the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The PP US dollar market price is stable, and the overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is not high. The export situation is difficult to improve [1] Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and there is a valuation differentiation within olefins. The internal and upstream profit - end valuations of PE are higher than those of PP [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The downstream new orders follow up on a rigid - demand basis, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. The PDH profit at the cost side remains low, and multiple PDH devices in South China have maintenance expectations. A PP device in northern Jiangsu plans to restart. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep loss of PDH profit [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation to the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, and inventory is being depleted. The upstream inventory is low, and producers are reluctant to lower prices. However, agents are selling at a loss, the basis has weakened significantly, and hedgers have no risk - free positions. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, and the PDH profit is still low, with a strong drive for production cuts. For PE, the pressure on standard products increases as India switches to LLD production, and the downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but the port inventory has increased unexpectedly, and the absolute level is still high. It is driven by oil prices and downstream styrene. With the increase in pure benzene and PX prices, the disproportionation profit has improved, and some units are expected to restart. The import of pure benzene is expected to increase. Overall, the supply - demand outlook is positive, but the driving force is limited, and it follows the fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. For styrene, the short - term trend is strong due to limited market supply, strong oil prices, and capital inflows. However, the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and the port inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [2]. Methanol - Methanol prices are rising, and the basis is weakening. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The inland area maintains high production, and the inventory is slightly depleted. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but the MTO demand is weak, which suppresses the price rebound. The key variables are the reduction rhythm of imported methanol from Iran and the risk premium caused by geopolitical factors [4]. LPG - The LPG price is rising. The refinery storage ratio has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The upstream operating rate has increased, while the downstream PDH operating rate has decreased significantly [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand imbalance persists, with high operating loads and high inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the procurement volume of major downstream industries and the price fluctuations of liquid caustic soda. The PVC futures are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation has not improved, with high production and weak demand. The price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand situation but supported by costs. It is expected to oscillate widely in the range of 4820 - 5000 [8]. Urea - The urea futures are strengthening, and the spot price is firm. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is general, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The pre - holiday order receiving is expected to be smooth. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is expected to be in the range of 1760 - 1820 [9]. Natural Rubber - The supply of natural rubber is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand is weakening as some enterprises are arranging holidays. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and long positions should be held [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash futures are oscillating widely. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly, and the social inventory has decreased. The price is mainly driven by market sentiment. The glass futures are also oscillating widely. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by the cancellation of the "Three Red Lines" policy in the real estate market but is still affected by weak demand [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, the supply - demand situation in the first quarter is weaker than expected, but the price has strong support in the second quarter. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. For PTA, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply is expected to decrease, and the price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost [14]. Crude Oil - International oil prices are rising. Geopolitical factors, such as the tense situation in Iran and the US military deployment, and other factors like the US winter storm and the slow recovery of the Kazakh oil field, support the oil price in the short term. However, the overall supply - demand situation is weak, and there is pressure above $70 per barrel for Brent crude [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefins - **Futures Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 all increased on January 29 compared to January 28, with increases of 1.18%, 1.27%, 1.36%, and 1.29% respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The L59 spread decreased by 14.58%, the PP59 spread increased by 11.11%, and the LP05 spread decreased by 5.29% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LDPE increased by 1.36% and 1.03% respectively [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 0.81%, while the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 4.48%. The PP device operating rate decreased by 1.64%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 2.65% [1]. - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, and the PE social inventory decreased by 1.42%. The PP enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the PP trader inventory increased by 0.77% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (March) increased by 3.4%, WTI crude oil (March) increased by 3.5%, and CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.9% [2]. - **Benzene - Related Prices**: The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 9.6% [2]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: The styrene East China spot price increased by 1.0%, and the EB03 - EB04 spread decreased by 24.3% [2]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, EPS, PS, and ABS all changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, and the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, while the domestic pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and styrene operating rates decreased [2]. Methanol - **Futures Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 increased by 0.56% and 0.68% respectively [4]. - **Price Spreads**: The MA59 spread decreased by 14.29%, and the MTO05盘面 increased by 14.57% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the methanol port inventory increased by 1.00%, and the methanol social inventory increased by 0.05% [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.19%, and the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate increased by 2.30%. The downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 0.35%, and the downstream formaldehyde operating rate decreased by 1.13% [4]. LPG - **Futures Prices**: PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased by 1.45%, 1.51%, and 1.61% respectively [6]. - **Price Spreads**: The PG03 - 04 spread decreased by 2.50%, and the PG03 - 05 spread decreased by 5.68% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The South China spot (civil gas) and deliverable spot prices remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio increased by 5.23%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53% [6]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81% [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot prices changed slightly on January 29 compared to January 28 [8]. - **Export Profits**: The caustic soda export profit increased by 0.6%, and the PVC export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 1.4% [8]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory increased by 5.5%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea - **Futures Prices**: The urea futures prices increased on January 29 [9]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily production increased by 4.28%, and the urea production enterprise order days increased by 12.07% [9]. Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 2.19%, and the whole latex basis increased by 4.88% [10]. - **Price Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 12.50%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 19.53% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of natural rubber in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in December increased, while the production in China decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly [10]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, and the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures and spot prices increased slightly on January 30 [13]. - **Supply**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 2.58%, and the soda ash weekly production increased by 1.48%. The float glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.20%, and the photovoltaic glass daily melting volume decreased by 0.29% [13]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory decreased by 1.22%, and the soda ash factory inventory increased by 1.51% [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha prices increased [14]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, and other polyester products changed slightly [14]. - **PX - Related**: The CFR China PX price decreased by 0.3%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 4.1% [14]. - **PTA - Related**: The PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.3% [14]. - **MEG - Related**: The MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, and the MEG port inventory increased by 7.9% [14]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent crude oil increased by 3.38%, WTI crude oil increased by 3.50%, and SC crude oil increased by 2.48% [15]. - **Price Spreads**: The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 10.24%, and the WTI M1 - M3 spread increased by 32.26% [15]. - **Refined Oil Prices**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.46%, and NYM ULSD decreased by 3.03% [15]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 6.50%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 7.82% [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]