Group 1: Polyolefin Industry Core View PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand growth, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and inventory slightly accumulating under new - capacity pressure; PE shows increased supply and decreased demand. The market is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to gradually stop losses and reduce positions on previous short positions near the previous low, with limited expected rebound space [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 closing prices all declined, with L15 and PP15 spreads also decreasing. Spot prices of some products like East China PP filament and North China LDPE decreased, while North China LL basis and East China pp basis increased [2]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.80%, PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.96%, and social inventory decreased by 1.86%. PP装置开工率 increased by 2.28%, and downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Methanol Industry Core View The inland market has increasing output, and marginal devices are in loss. The port methanol market is under pressure due to high inventory and increased Iranian shipments. The market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, and the inventory contradiction of the 01 contract cannot be resolved before Iranian gas restrictions [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices increased slightly, while MA15 spread decreased. Some regional spot prices changed slightly, and regional spreads also changed [4]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 4.44%, port inventory increased by 3.80%, and social inventory increased by 2.10%. Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工率 increased slightly, while downstream - outer - purchased MTO装置开工率 decreased by 2.38% [4]. Group 3: Ester Industry Chain Core View PX supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose in the future, and its rebound space is limited. Ethylene glycol will see inventory accumulation, and its price is under pressure. Short - fiber supply is high, and demand is weak. Bottle - chip supply - demand is in a loose pattern [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil increased, while prices of some downstream polyester products decreased. PX - related spreads and PTA - related spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory and开工率**: MEG port inventory increased by 10.7%. Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased, PTA开工率 decreased slightly, and polyester综合开工率 decreased by 0.9% [7]. Group 4: Crude Oil Industry Core View The continuous attacks on Russian refineries and sanctions have increased concerns about crude oil supply, which has boosted oil prices in the short term. However, under the pressure of OPEC + continuous production increase and high US crude oil production, the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak, and the rebound space of oil prices is limited. Short - term Brent crude oil may fluctuate in the range of $60 - 66 per barrel [9]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 also changed [9]. - **Product Price and Spread**: Prices of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil increased, and their M1 - M3 spreads also increased [9]. - **Crack Spread**: Some crack spreads such as US gasoline and European gasoline changed, with US diesel and Singapore diesel crack spreads increasing significantly [9]. Group 5: Natural Rubber Industry Core View Supply - side factors support rubber prices, but overall demand is weak. The market is expected to enter range - bound consolidation, and attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of major producing areas and macro - level changes [10]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, the price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex increased slightly, and the full - latex basis increased. Some raw material prices changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed. Tire开工率 of semi - steel and full - steel decreased slightly, and October domestic tire production decreased [10]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded - area inventory and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory increased, while the出库 rate of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [10]. Group 6: Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Core View Pure benzene supply pressure is large, and its fundamentals are weak. Short - term BZ2603 may fluctuate or be short - biased at high levels. Styrene supply - demand has improved, and it may oscillate and repair in the short term, but its upward space is limited [11]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of some upstream products like Brent crude oil changed, and prices of pure benzene and styrene - related products also changed. Spreads such as EB - BZ现货价差 increased [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased, and Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率 changed. Styrene开工率 increased, and downstream ABS开工率 increased slightly [11]. Group 7: LPG Industry Core View No clear overall view is mentioned in the text, mainly presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [13]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased, and spreads such as PG12 - 01 decreased [13]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased slightly, port inventory decreased by 5.66%, and port storage - capacity ratio decreased. Upstream - main refinery开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream - PDH开工率 decreased by 4.92% [13]. Group 8: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Core View Soda ash is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound. Glass has short - term rigid - demand support, but in the medium - and long - term, demand will shrink, and prices will be under pressure [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, glass and soda ash futures prices decreased slightly, and their basis increased [15]. - **开工率 and Production**: Soda ash开工率 decreased by 1.72%, and weekly production decreased by 1.71%. Float - glass daily melting volume remained unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Real - Estate Data**: Glass warehouse inventory increased, and some real - estate data such as new - construction area and sales area changed [15]. Group 9: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Core View Caustic soda supply - demand has pressure, and its price is expected to oscillate weakly. PVC is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue the bottom - weakening pattern [16]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On November 18, compared with November 17, prices of PVC and caustic soda - related products decreased slightly, and their basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Caustic soda and PVC inventory decreased slightly. Caustic soda and PVC开工率 decreased, and downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC also changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [28][5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, LPG, Ethylene Glycol, Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][5] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Bearish Continuation**: PVC, Glass, Soda Ash [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: European diesel price hikes drive oil price rebounds, but supply surplus and inventory accumulation limit upside potential, with a downward pressure [1][8]. - **LPG**: High basis and over - valued futures lead to price pressure, with upstream crude oil supply exceeding demand [1][14]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient, with a short - term rebound and long - term bearish outlook [19]. - **PP**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion lead to a bearish outlook, with short - term stabilization and long - term bearishness [23]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits further decline, with opportunities for short - selling hedging and low - buying [27]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists, and there is an opportunity to expand processing fees [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, valuation is low but lacks upward drive, with a low - level oscillation and bearish outlook [32]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and the fundamentals remain weak [36]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, inventory is high, and there is a risk of price decline [40]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient, and the upward space is limited [44]. - **Asphalt**: Follows the oil price, with cost support decreasing, supply surplus, and a bearish outlook [49]. - **Glass**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [54]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant, and the bearish trend continues [55]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.35%, Brent up 1.07%, and SC up 0.33% [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Downstream refined oil profits are good, European diesel prices drive the rebound, but supply surplus and geopolitical uncertainties exist [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Angola's January exports will decrease, OPEC forecasts global demand growth, and US commercial crude inventories increase [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close previous short positions, with SC focusing on [450 - 470] [10]. LPG - **Market Review**: On November 18, the PG main contract closed at 4381 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Anchored to the cost - side crude oil, high basis and over - valued futures, with supply and demand changes [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, with PG focusing on [4350 - 4450] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton, up 0.4% [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Basis repair, abundant supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with L focusing on [6800 - 6950] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6429 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side weakness, high inventory, and OPEC+ expansion [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions in the short - term, wait for a rebound to short in the long - term, with PP focusing on [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Weak fundamentals, high inventory, but low valuation limits decline [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hedge short - selling for industries, look for low - buying opportunities, with V focusing on [4400 - 4650] [27]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 closed at 4762 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure eases, demand is relatively good but may weaken, cost support exists [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to expand processing fees, with TA focusing on [4640 - 4710] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG01 closed at 4013 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand may weaken, and valuation is low but lacks upward drive [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with EG focusing on [3850 - 3920] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: High inventory suppresses prices, supply pressure is large, demand is average, and cost support is weak [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be held cautiously, and pay attention to MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [3]. Urea - **Market Review**: UR01 closed at 1652 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand weakens, and inventory is high [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautious of price drops, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with UR focusing on [1640 - 1670] [41]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On November 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.593 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 3.75% [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand support rises, but supply is sufficient [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to [4.200 - 4.511], with limited upward space [45]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 18, the BU main contract closed at 3032 yuan/ton, unchanged [48]. - **Basic Logic**: Follows the oil price, cost support decreases, supply and demand decline, and inventory decreases [49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, with BU focusing on [3000 - 3100] [50]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [53]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply decline is limited, demand is weak due to the real - estate market [54]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, with FG focusing on [1000 - 1050] [54]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review section. - **Basic Logic**: Demand support weakens, supply is abundant in the long - term [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term, exit long - alkali and short - glass spreads [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelter processing fee continues to be low. Although the import volume from Myanmar has rebounded, the improvement in supply is limited. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is suppressed. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low - buying strategy can be considered after the market sentiment stabilizes. Follow the macro - end changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon stabilizes and rises, and the futures price fluctuates. There is an arbitrage window. The supply and demand in the industrial silicon market decreased in November, with a larger decline in supply, but there is still a pressure of inventory accumulation. In December, if the organic silicon industry cuts production, the inventory accumulation pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, the demand is weak, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops significantly, and the arbitrage window closes. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still an inventory accumulation expectation in each link. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Pay attention to the spot support and the inventory pressure [6]. Copper - The market is waiting and seeing, and the copper price fluctuates weakly. The macro situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the supply of copper ore remains tight. The downstream psychological price ceiling for copper is rising, and the spot maintains a premium. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the bottom of the copper price. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 85000 - 87500 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is basically in a loose pattern, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has no unexpected performance, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze eases. The zinc ingot export window is open, which may boost the domestic zinc price. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 22000 - 22800 [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a loose supply - demand pattern, showing a low - level shock. The spot market has regional differentiation. The price of electrolytic aluminum is affected by macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. It may fluctuate between the two in the short term, and there is a risk of a high - level correction above 22000 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts with the aluminum price. The cost is strongly supported, but the supply is restricted by raw material shortages. The downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is in a weak shock. The macro - drive and demand are insufficient, and the supply pressure remains. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12300 - 12700. Pay attention to the steel mill's production cut and the nickel - iron price [15]. Nickel - The nickel market is weak. The macro - expectation improves, but the fundamental improvement is limited. The nickel supply is loose in the medium term, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 116000 - 122000. Pay attention to the macro - expectation and the Indonesian industrial policy [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market runs strongly. Driven by news and fundamentals, the price rises. The supply increases slightly, the demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market may have more games. Be cautious about chasing high prices without positions, and wait for a pull - back [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin decreased by 0.75%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 671.90%. The import loss decreased by 1.62%, and the Shanghai - London ratio was stable [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601, 2601 - 2602, and 2602 - 2603 decreased, while that of 2603 - 2604 increased significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin production in October increased by 53.09%. The inventory of SHEF and social inventory increased [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of some industrial silicon products is stable, and the premium of Tongmei decreased by 12.50%. The basis of some products changed [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2512 - 2601 and 2601 - 2602 increased, while others changed to different extents [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in October, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon is stable, and the battery price falls. The futures price drops by 1390 yuan/ton, and the arbitrage window closes [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed, with the largest change in the current - month to the first - continuous contract [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08%, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [6]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various copper products decreased, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by 6.23%. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [7]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of 2511 - 2512 and 2601 - 2602 changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: The electrolytic copper production in October decreased by 2.62%, and the import volume in September increased by 26.50%. The inventory of some ports and the electrolytic copper rod's operating rate changed [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.40%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [10]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The refined zinc production in October increased by 2.85%, and the inventory of LME and domestic zinc ingots changed [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 1.28%, and the import loss and the Shanghai - London ratio changed [12]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The alumina production in October increased by 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52%. The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and LME changed [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap spread of some products decreased [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in October decreased by 2.42%, and the inventory of some regions and the overall social inventory changed [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel in some regions changed, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.14%. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and chromium ore changed [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly, and the import and export volumes and the inventory changed [15]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and other nickel products decreased, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased slightly. The import loss increased [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed slightly [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel production increased by 0.84%, and the import volume increased by 124.36%. The inventory of SHFE, social inventory, and LME increased [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate and other lithium products increased, and the lithium concentrate price also increased [20]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads of some contracts changed significantly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The lithium carbonate production in October increased by 5.73%, and the inventory decreased [20].

中辉能化观点 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | PTA | 加工费整体偏低，装置复产延期叠加检修力度有所提升（虹港石化检 修、逸盛宁波本月下旬检修、英力士检修中，威联化学降负），供应端压 | | PX/PTA | | 力有所缓解；需求略显改善，终端订单短期企稳，但稳定性有待跟踪。成 | | | 谨慎看多 本端 | PX 国内外均有所降负（上海石化、中化泉州停车，越南 NSRP 降负）， | | ★ | | 走势偏强。TA12 月存累库预期。短期来看，基本面有所改善，但原油承 | | | | 压，反弹高度或将有限。策略：单边关注逢低布局多单机会；套利关注做 | | | 扩 | ta 加工费（即多 pta，空 px）。 | | | | 近期国内煤制装置检修有所增加，开工负荷下行（红四方临停、正达凯检 | | | | 修、广汇降负、河南能源延后重启）、海外装置略有提负（台湾南亚 1#重 | | 乙二醇 | | 启），新装置投产（裕龙石化投产；宁夏畅亿、襄矿泓通计划投产）叠加 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 检修装置恢复 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the fundamentals are bullish, with supply-side production scheduled to decrease, demand recovery at a low level, and cost support increasing. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8990 - 9170 [5][8]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are neutral, with continuous decreases in supply-side production scheduling and overall demand showing a continuous decline, while cost support remains stable. The 2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 51880 - 53430 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 84,000 tons, a 2.44% increase from the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in demand [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygenated 553 silicon was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On November 17, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 270 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [7]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 546,000 tons, a 1.08% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 172,600 tons, a 0.35% increase; and the main port inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [8]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with a decrease in short positions [8]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a 0.74% decrease from the previous week. The predicted production in November is 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, a 2.45% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 184,200 tons, a 5.13% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduled for November is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N-type polysilicon is 38,920 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,080 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On November 17, the basis of the 01 contract was -355 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.08% increase from the previous week, at a historically low level [10]. - Market: The MA20 was upward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the basis of the SI main contract and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [21][22]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the price, trading volume, and basis of the PS main contract [24][25]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - The report displays the historical trends of the inventory in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise weekly inventory, and registered warehouse receipts [27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The report presents the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, industrial silicon monthly production by specification, and SMM sample enterprise operating rate [28][29][30][31][33]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang [35][36]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the historical trends of the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [37][38]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report shows the historical trends of the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [40][41]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - DMC Price and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC daily capacity utilization, profit - cost trends, weekly production, and price [43][44]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Downstream Price Trends - The report shows the historical trends of the average prices of 107 rubber, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [45][46]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - Import - Export and Inventory Trends - The report presents the historical trends of DMC monthly import and export volumes and inventory [49][50]. 3.13 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply Situation - The report shows the historical trends of waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, China's unforged aluminum alloy import - export situation, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit [52][53]. 3.14 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Inventory and Production Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [55][56]. 3.15 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The report shows the historical trends of automobile monthly production, sales, and aluminum alloy wheel hub export [57][58][59][60]. 3.16 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The report presents the historical trends of the polysilicon industry cost, price, total inventory, monthly production, operating rate, and monthly demand [62][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 17, the upward movement of the soda ash futures 2601 contract was driven by the triple resonance of policy expectations, supply contraction, and cost support. However, the core contradictions of high industry inventory and weak downstream demand remain unchanged, and the short - term increase is still an event - driven rebound [3][4]. - For stock index futures, the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [7]. - Gold is approaching an important resistance level after a rebound, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. - Iron ore is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [13]. - Glass futures are in a downward trend without a stabilization signal and should be regarded as bearish with oscillations [17]. - For methanol, there is an opportunity to short in the short term and go long in the long term, considering the inventory situation in different ports [20]. - Pulp futures are showing an oscillatory rebound trend, with a decline in imports in October, a de - stocking trend in domestic ports, but still abundant supply and weak social demand [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Policy aspect: The market focuses on the soda ash industry "anti - involution" seminar on November 18. Topics such as production capacity regulation and price self - discipline have triggered positive expectations, and funds have pre - arranged to boost market sentiment [4]. - Supply aspect: Since November, enterprises such as Ningxia Risheng and Chongqing Heyou have a total of 2.45 million tons of equipment under maintenance, and another 3.05 million tons of equipment are planned for maintenance. Some enterprises have stopped production due to cost pressure, leading to a decline in industry capacity utilization and a short - term relief of supply pressure [4]. - Cost aspect: Since November, the prices of coal and natural gas have risen, pushing up the marginal cost of soda ash production, and some spot quotes have been raised, forming a linkage support [4]. - Other factors: The strengthening of glass futures has driven the sentiment of the industrial chain to warm up, and the increased trading activity of funds has further magnified the upward trend [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market closed with a small negative line, and trading volume shrank again. The State Council executive meeting has deployed measures to promote consumption and stabilize investment, and a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts is expected. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7]. Gold - After a period of rebound, gold is approaching an important resistance level, and the volatility has increased at this stage. It is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining momentum in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a weak state. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation [13][14]. Glass - Technically, it has broken through the support level and is in a downward trend without a stabilization signal. The daily melting volume has little change, and the continuity of de - stocking is not strong. The main driving forces are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [17][18]. Methanol - This week, the inventory in methanol ports in East China has accumulated due to stable supply, while the inventory in South China ports has slightly decreased. There is an opportunity to short in the short term and go long in the long term [20]. Pulp - In October, the import volume of pulp decreased month - on - month, and domestic port inventories showed a de - stocking trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant. The sporadic publication tenders of cultural paper have boosted market confidence, but social demand is weak, and the gross profit of paper enterprises continues to decline. The futures market is showing an oscillatory rebound trend [24].