基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 2 月 8 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260208 国际油价回调，己内酰胺、维生素 E 价格上涨 二月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺 盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司。 行业动态 投资建议 ◼ 截至 2 月 8 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 28.57 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今） 82.89%分位数；市净率为 2.58 倍，处在历史 73.42%分位数。SW 石油石化市盈率（TTM 剔除负 值）为 15.16 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）46.10%分位数；市净率为 1.47 倍，处在历史 50.93% 分位数。展望 2026 年，本轮行业扩产已近尾声，"反内卷"等措施有望催化行业盈利底部修复， 同时新材料受益于下游需求的快速发展，有望开启新一轮高成长，二月份建议关注：1、低估值行 业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、下游需求旺盛，自主可控日益关键背 景下的电子材料公司。中长期推荐投资主线：1、传统化工龙头经营韧性凸显，布局新材料等领域， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The chemical sector's profitability is under pressure due to rising costs and impairment impacts, but a recovery is expected as capital expenditures near completion and demand stabilizes [3][4] - Key investment opportunities are identified in the agricultural chain, textile chain, export chain, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In Q4 2025, oil prices declined, negatively impacting demand and leading to lower chemical prices, while gas prices increased [3] - The average Brent spot price was $63.98 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, while NYMEX natural gas futures rose 36% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecasts - The weighted average EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.90 yuan, a 15% increase year-on-year, with Q4 EPS expected at 0.20 yuan [3] - Significant profit growth is anticipated in sectors such as pesticides, compound fertilizers, potassium fertilizers, chromium chemicals, and fluorochemicals [3] Key Companies and Their Projections - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve a net profit of 12.16 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 3 billion yuan [3][4] - Salt Lake Industry is projected to reach 8.5 billion yuan in 2025, with Q4 profit at 4 billion yuan [3][4] - Agricultural chemicals like Yangnong Chemical and New Hope Liuhe are expected to see substantial growth, with profits of 1.24 billion yuan and 6.72 billion yuan respectively in 2025 [3][4] Sector-Specific Insights - The textile chain is expected to benefit from high demand growth and improved supply conditions, with companies like Luhua Chemical and Tongkun Group highlighted [4] - The agricultural chain is supported by increasing planting areas and higher transgenic penetration rates, benefiting companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Baofeng Energy [4] - Export-related chemical products are expected to perform well due to low inventory levels and easing monetary policies [4] Material Growth Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in key materials, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Dinglong Technology noted for their potential [5]

本周，中证石化产业指数下跌3%，中证稀土产业指数下跌3.4%。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，化工行业ETF易方达 （516570）已连续15个交易日获资金净流入，合计超14亿元。 由A股中业务范围涵盖稀土开采、稀土加工、稀土 贸易和稀土应用的38只股票组成,反映A股稀土产 业上市公司的整体表现 注1:目前全市场跟踪中证石化产业指数的ETF共2只,跟踪中证稀土产业指数的ETF共4只,跟踪同一指数 的不同ETF产品的费率、跟踪误差、规模等有所不同。银行、互联网平台等相关销售机构提供可场外投资 的ETF联接基金。低费率产品,其管理费率0.15%/年,托管费率0.05%/年。 注2: 数据来自Wind, 指数涨跌幅截至2026年2月6日收盘,指数市净率及其所处分位截至2026年2月5日。 市净率PB(LF)=Σ(成分股,总市值)/Σ(成分股,净资产(最新报告期LF)),该估值指标适用于固定资产数 量较大且账面价值较为稳定的企业,或是盈利周期性波动的企业。指数市净率所处分位指该指数历史上 市净率低于当前市净率的时间占比,分位低表示相对便宜。分位区间为指数发布日/可查询估值记录日起 至2026年2月5日,其中,中证石化产业 ...

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - On February 6, the A-share chemical sector experienced a strong rally, with multiple sub-sectors such as chemical fibers, chemical products, chemical raw materials, and petrochemicals showing significant gains, leading to several chemical-themed ETFs rising over 2% [2][4] - The chemical ETF performance included notable increases: Chemical ETF (159870.SZ) rose by 2.64%, Chemical ETF Guotai (516220.SH) by 2.49%, and Chemical ETF Tianhong (159133.SZ) by 2.47% [3] - Analysts from Zhongyuan Securities noted a significant recovery in chemical prices in January, with liquid chlorine, acetonitrile, and butadiene performing well, suggesting that supply constraints in the chemical industry may strengthen in the future [3] Group 2: New Energy and Battery Sector - The new energy and battery sectors saw strong performance, with several related ETFs actively rising, including the Science and Innovation New Energy ETF and Battery ETF Jiashi, both nearing a 2% increase [4][5] - The Science and Innovation New Energy ETF (588830.SH) increased by 1.99%, while the Battery ETF Jiashi (562880.SH) rose by 1.96% [5] Group 3: ETF Market Trends - The ETF market has seen significant inflows, particularly in technology-themed ETFs, with the top ten products by net inflow mostly being technology-related [8] - The Huatai-PB Hang Seng Technology ETF recorded a net inflow of over 3.1 billion yuan, while other technology ETFs also saw substantial inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan [9] Group 4: A500 Index and Investment Value - The A500 index, represented by the A500 ETF (563800), has shown significant investment value due to its balanced industry distribution and focus on leading companies, making it attractive for long-term investment [10] - Analysts from GF Fund highlighted the index's advantages, including its ability to effectively capture growth opportunities while mitigating risks associated with single industries [10]

Core Viewpoints - Silver futures have ended their limit down, indicating that the current liquidity shock is largely over. Since November 2025, silver has become a leading indicator of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, alongside gold and copper, activating a rotation sequence in commodities [2][12] - The recent decline in silver futures has triggered a liquidity risk contagion in the commodity market, leading to widespread sell-offs in related sectors. The opening of the limit down on February 3rd suggests a relief in market risks [2][12] Market Events - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) silver futures opened limit down, closing at 21,446 CNY/kg, a decline of 16.71%. The London silver spot price was 79.2 USD/oz, with the SHFE silver futures premium dropping from 29.8% at the end of January to 7.46% by February 3 [1][11] - On February 4, the SHFE silver main contract night session rose by 5.93%, closing at 22,393 CNY/kg [1][11] Volatility Analysis - The implied volatility of silver futures remains high, with a peak of 148% on February 2, indicating that while the limit down has been lifted, the market still needs to stabilize from liquidity risks. Gold futures also show elevated volatility, suggesting that both metals require time to fully absorb the liquidity shock [3][13] Commodity Market Dynamics - The core logic of the commodity market remains unchanged despite liquidity shocks. Some commodities, which were mispriced due to liquidity risks, may return to their fundamental pricing logic as the market stabilizes. The 2026 asset allocation report highlights three main lines for the commodity market post-liquidity shock [4][14] - Precious metals are expected to enter a consolidation phase after a period of broad increases, supported by long-term narratives such as the weakening of global sovereign currency credit and the "de-dollarization" trend [4][17] Non-Ferrous Metals - Non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from structural changes in demand driven by new economic sectors such as AI and renewable energy. Despite recent adjustments due to liquidity shocks, the fundamental pricing mechanisms for these metals remain robust [5][18] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in market conditions, driven by supply-side adjustments and structural changes in demand. The sector is becoming a key area for capital inflows, despite recent declines linked to precious metals [6][19] New Energy Metals - New energy metals, particularly lithium carbonate, are expected to gradually move towards supply-demand balance, supported by policy adjustments and demand growth. The sector remains a focal point for bullish investment opportunities [7][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, suggesting a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, meaning a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, indicating a more distinct upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market sentiment is weak, and most varieties' prices are under pressure. The short - term trends of various varieties are mainly in a state of shock, and the prices are difficult to rise or fall significantly due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and market expectations [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - The futures prices continue to decline. Thread demand and production decline, and inventory accumulates; hot - roll demand drops slightly, production stabilizes, and inventory accumulates slightly. Steel mill profits are poor, and downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient. The resumption of blast - furnace production slows down, and hot - metal production stabilizes. Domestic demand is weak, but steel exports remain high. The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the sharp decline in non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and the futures prices are under short - term pressure [1] Iron Ore - The futures prices decline. The global shipment volume is seasonally low, and the impact of the Australian hurricane season on production and shipment is limited. The domestic arrival volume is relatively strong year - on - year, and port inventory accumulates to a historical high. Terminal demand weakens in the off - season, hot - metal production increases slightly, and steel - mill restocking is coming to an end. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with a marginal improvement expectation, and the short - term trend is mainly in shock [2] Coke - The price fluctuates downward. Coking profits are average, daily production decreases slightly, and inventory increases slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production remains at an off - season level, and steel profits are average. There is still a strong sentiment for raw - material price cuts. The futures price of coke has a premium, and the coking - coal futures price has a premium over Mongolian coal. The price of coking coal is likely to fluctuate in a range [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates downward. The daily Mongolian - coal customs clearance volume is 1,261 vehicles. The production of coking - coal mines increases slightly, and the spot auction transaction price is inversely proportional to the futures price. Terminal inventory increases significantly, and total coking - coal inventory rises sharply. Winter - storage demand is coming to an end. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production remains at an off - season level, and steel profits are average. There is still a strong sentiment for raw - material price cuts. The coking - coal price is difficult to decline significantly and is likely to fluctuate in a range [5] Silicon Manganese - The price mainly fluctuates. The spot price of manganese ore decreases slightly, and there is no arbitrage space in the futures market, with limited downward space. The market is waiting for steel tenders. Manganese - ore port inventory may start to accumulate slowly, and the mine - end shipment increases month - on - month, but the mine cost is higher than in previous years, and the price - concession space is limited. Hot - metal production remains at a seasonal low level, weekly silicon - manganese production increases slightly, and inventory increases slightly. The price is affected by oversupply and the "anti - involution" concept [6] Silicon Iron - The price mainly fluctuates. The power cost in some production areas decreases, and the semi - coke price decreases slightly. The main production areas are mainly in a loss state. Hot - metal production remains at an off - season level. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increases month - on - month, and secondary demand increases marginally. Overall demand remains resilient. Silicon - iron supply changes little, inventory decreases slightly, and the price is affected by oversupply and the "anti - involution" concept [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to see improved foreign investment allocation in 2026, driven by reasonable valuations, a stable currency, and strong innovation capabilities in AI and other fields [1][2]. Group 1: Market Positioning and Fund Allocation - Despite global active funds being underweight in China, there has been a marginal improvement in allocation, particularly among global and Asia-Pacific funds [2]. - As of December 2025, the allocation of Chinese stocks in global (including U.S.) active equity funds is approximately 3.1%, while it is 9% in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, 29% in emerging market funds, and 32.7% in Asia excluding Japan [2]. - The underweight position in Chinese stocks for global (including U.S.) active equity funds is 1.8%, and for Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, it is 2.4% [2]. Group 2: Valuation and Performance Expectations - The MSCI China index is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.5, which is relatively reasonable compared to the MSCI Asia-Pacific and Asia excluding Japan, which have P/E ratios of 15.3 and 13.9, respectively [3]. - The expected earnings growth for the MSCI China index is 12.3% this year, with the CSI 300 expected to grow by 18%, suggesting potential benchmark targets of 100 and 5200 for these indices [3]. Group 3: Real Estate and Consumer Market Insights - The ratio of residential property value to GDP in China is 1.8 times as of the end of 2025, lower than the historical median of 2 times since 1998, indicating room for stabilization in the real estate market [3]. - The cost of purchasing homes has significantly decreased compared to 2021, and there are signs of policy easing in first-tier cities that could stabilize property prices and boost consumer spending [3]. - China's household consumption market is valued at $7 trillion, with a decrease in household debt to GDP ratio from 62% in 2021 to 59.4% by the end of 2025, indicating a healthier financial environment for consumers [4]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Key Sectors - Key investment sectors identified include technology, consumer goods, and exports, with a focus on AI and its ongoing growth potential [5]. - The essential consumer sector is noted for its low valuations compared to markets in the U.S., Japan, and India, with a focus on the food and beverage industry, which is seen as undervalued and having room for innovation [5]. - Other themes to watch in 2026 include export stocks, the impact of reducing excessive competition on profitability, and AI infrastructure developments that have not yet been fully priced in [5].

Group 1: Current Economic Challenges - The trade surplus in China is fundamentally a result of overcapacity, stemming from a long-term "capacity expansion strategy" [1][4] - The dual urban-rural structure, welfare deficits for migrant workers, and land finance prepayment for young families contribute to insufficient domestic demand [1][5] - The current economic model is heavily reliant on manufacturing, with policies favoring cost reduction for enterprises, leading to structural issues [10][12] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - To address the challenges, it is suggested to raise labor costs, eliminate export tax rebates, and impose carbon taxes as "anti-involution" measures to increase export costs and promote domestic circulation [1][10] - Implementing a "Chinese-style quantitative easing" policy is recommended, focusing on fiscal and monetary coordination to support social welfare improvements [2][22] - The government should prioritize investments in areas like fertility encouragement, educational equity, and the urbanization of migrant workers [2][23] Group 3: Currency and Capital Flow - A moderate appreciation of the RMB is advocated to optimize the import structure and correct structural distortions caused by a long-term undervaluation [1][12] - The capital account should maintain "limited and controlled openness" to prevent excessive volatility in the exchange rate [12][16] - There is a need to increase the supply of high-quality RMB-denominated assets in offshore markets to attract foreign investment [1][18] Group 4: Structural Adjustments - The current economic model needs to shift from investment-driven growth to consumption-driven growth, necessitating structural adjustments in the economy [2][24] - The real estate market's structural issues, including oversupply and demographic changes, require innovative solutions such as reverse auctions for affordable housing [22][24] - The government should unify the funding for basic public services like education and healthcare to ensure equitable access and support for the population [23][24]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with major indices initially rising before closing lower; the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 4065.58 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.33% and 0.73% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 300 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The tourism, liquor, and retail sectors collectively declined, while the oil, chemical, and power sectors showed strength [1] - The oil sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Zhuan Oil and Intercontinental Oil rising to their daily limits; Zhuan Oil opened at the limit down but rebounded to close at the limit up, showcasing a "floor to ceiling" trading pattern [3][4] - The chemical sector also performed well, with Jiangtian Chemical rising nearly 12% and several other stocks hitting their daily limits due to price increases in various chemical products [7] - The lithium battery sector surged, with stocks like Zhenyu Technology and Wanrun New Energy rising over 10% [9][10] - The robotics sector was active, with stocks such as Kailong High-Tech and Tianqi Co. reaching their daily limits [13][14] Oil Market Insights - WTI and Brent crude oil futures both rose by over 1% [6] - Analysts predict that the Brent oil price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel by 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [6] Chemical Sector Dynamics - The chemical sector is experiencing price increases across multiple products, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which has accelerated export activities [7] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to strengthen supply-side constraints, benefiting certain sub-industries such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament [7] Lithium Battery Sector Outlook - The lithium battery sector is projected to improve in supply and demand dynamics by 2025, with product prices and corporate profitability expected to stabilize [11] - The average market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has exceeded 140,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 140% increase from the 2025 low [10] Robotics Sector Developments - The humanoid robot sector is gaining traction, with significant developments expected in 2026, including the mass production of Tesla's Optimus robot [15] - The upcoming Spring Festival Gala will feature a diverse lineup of robotics companies, indicating a growing interest and investment in this technology [15]