期货盯盘神器专属文章 锰硅基本面分析：生产商降价抛售12万吨加蓬矿！买家集体"躺平"，并直言.....点击阅读。 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/13 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 2025/06/12 95 990 107404 32785 -642.66 374.84 38.0 60.0 85.51 116850 68125 变化 5 -113 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-06-13投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7954，基差266，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：6月2日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝下。中性 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，下半年的运输板块挑战与机遇并存。目前市场对于部分周期 底部行业给予了较为悲观的预期，但这也正是周期行业的机会所在。价格竞争是行业的正常现象，去年 以来政府部门对于反内卷的日益重视，则体现出国家希望为行业的价格竞争行为划定一条底线。交运板 块中，航空板块自疫情后持续亏损，24年还出现了较明显的票价下降;快递板块24年起价格战烈度明显 加剧，目前也已经持续了较长时间。两者盈利都长期受价格竞争的影响。 长期看，任何行业都需要合理的利润，长期处于微利或亏损状态不利于行业健康发展。因此该行认为， 对于价格竞争较为激烈的领域，需要重点关注行业基本面和政策调控带来的变化，行业价格端的触底回 升会带来较强的盈利弹性。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 快递：通达系价格战进入深水区，重视左侧配置价值 今年快递板块的价格战烈度较高，中通与圆通两家头部企业同时加大对市场份额的争夺力度，对行业后 续的价格水平大概率形成一定冲击。受价格战烈度加剧的影响，一季度行业整体表现为利润下降。若将 盈利拆解为件量乘以单票净利润，则表现为件量增长无法完全对冲单票盈利下降造成的影响。 与业绩的压力相对的是，目前市场对快 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent share reduction by Guo Fengming, the controlling shareholder of Kanda, raises concerns about the company's long-term value despite the stock price resilience and positive earnings growth [1][3][4]. Group 1: Share Reduction Details - Guo Fengming's share reduction plan, which was first disclosed on February 17, 2025, involved a maximum reduction of 3% of shares, with a total of 512.26 million shares sold, amounting to approximately 57.39 million yuan [2]. - Since March 2023, Guo has cumulatively reduced 15.33 million shares, cashing out over 203 million yuan, decreasing his holding from 51.92% to 45% while still maintaining control [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Institutional Involvement - During the share reduction period, Kanda's stock price increased, reaching a high of 12.24 yuan, contrasting with the slight rise of the Shanghai Composite Index [2]. - Institutional investors showed a net buying of 34.14 million yuan on the same day as the reduction, indicating a complex market dynamic of shareholder selling and institutional buying [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Operational Concerns - Kanda reported a revenue of 81.26 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of 31.98 million yuan, up 20.88%, and a maintained gross margin of 44% [4]. - However, operational efficiency is a concern, with accounts receivable turnover at only 0.19 times and inventory turnover at 0.21 times, indicating low operational efficiency [4]. Group 4: Investor Insights and Strategic Considerations - The situation illustrates the coexistence of shareholder reduction and institutional buying, suggesting that the impact of single signals in the market is diminishing [5]. - Investors should monitor the implementation of policies such as the "Lightweight Development Plan for Rail Transit Equipment" expected at the end of June, which may influence the sector [5]. - The reduction in shareholder numbers, currently at 17,100, down 12% from peak levels, indicates increased concentration of shares, which may heighten stock price volatility [5].

宏源期货煤焦日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/6/12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | ■日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1373.5 | 1364.5 | 9.0 | JM2601 | 793.0 | 791.5 | 15 | 101基金 | -66.4 | -57.4 | -9.0 | | 12605 | 1374.0 | 0.686T | -9.0 | JM2605 | 813.0 | 819.0 | -6.0 | 105基差 | -66.9 | -75.9 | 9.0 | | 12509 | 0'956T | 0.6FET | 7.0 | 80952WIE | 783.5 | 785.0 | -1.5 | 100 查会 | 687- | -41.9 | -7.0 | | 109-101 ...

2025年06月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 铝：关注中美谈判进展 | 5 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡，关注库存 | 7 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 8 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 9 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：基本面弱势，上方空间有限 | 15 | | 多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：主产地区减产仍存，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：海外矿企报价下移，偏弱震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 25 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日 碳酸锂：宏观预期反复，基本面仍偏弱 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2507合约（收盘价） | 61,680 | 920 | 600 | 760 | -1,340 | -14,060 | | | | 2507合约（成交量） | 236,197 | 31,417 | -177,042 | -156,272 | -53,205 | 229,418 | | | | 2507合约（持仓量） | 178,235 | -16,496 | -67,415 | -115,460 | -112,068 | 143,911 | | | 盘面 | 2509合约（收 ...

张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | | | | | | | | | | 上游价格 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6月11日 6月10日 涨跌 张跌幅 单位 品种 6月11日 6月10日 涨跌 旅跌幅 | | | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | 品种 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 布伦特原油(8月) 69.77 66.87 2.90 4.3% POY150/48价格 6880 6880 0 0.0% | 美元/桶 | | | | | | | | | | | | WTI原油(7月) 68.15 64.98 3.17 4.9% FDY150/96价格 7160 7160 0 0.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 574 -0.3% 8120 0 0.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | 4279 4271 8 0.2% 元/吨 92.1% 93.2% EG期货2601 直纺短纤开工率 ...