交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年7月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22300，基差+45；中性。 3、库存：7月1日LME锌库存较上日减少2575吨至114900吨，7月1日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少253吨至6824吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之上,2 ...

• LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，5月官方PMI为 49.5%，较4月回升0.5，财新PMI48.3，较4月下降2.1， 为去年10月以来首次收缩。6月24日，美国宣布伊朗以色列达成停火协议，原油回落。供需端， 农膜淡季，包装膜下游持续偏弱，多数企业降负荷，下游需求整体弱势，后续新产能投产压力仍 存。当前LL交割品现货价7300（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差51，升贴水比例0.7%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.5万吨（-5.0），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：LL ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

Summary of Haier Smart Home Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Haier Smart Home - **Industry**: Home Appliances Key Points and Arguments Market Impact and Challenges - The North American market is minimally affected by U.S. tariffs due to local production in the U.S. and Mexico, where Mexico enjoys zero tariffs. However, overall Chinese appliance exports have declined since April and are expected to continue this trend in the coming months [2][3] - Domestic market faces challenges from reduced subsidy intensity and a price war in the air conditioning sector. The gradual implementation of the old-for-new subsidy may be controlled, raising market concerns, especially with recent adjustments in Jiangsu province's air conditioning subsidy policy [2][4] - In Q1 2025, Haier's refrigerator business grew by 8%, washing machines by over 10%, and air conditioning by 15%, outperforming industry averages [2][5] Strategic Initiatives - Haier is enhancing operational efficiency through digital inventory management, accelerating inventory turnover, and expanding online channels, particularly targeting younger consumers. The air conditioning business added 150 top customers, resulting in a 60% increase in retail volume [2][8] - The company launched the "Lazy Wash" washing machine, which has seen significant pre-sale success, with orders fully booked until July [2][9] Competitive Landscape - The recent price decline in air conditioning products, led by the Hualing brand, is not expected to last as long as previous price wars in 2019 and 2020. Prices have already begun to recover post-618 shopping festival [6][10] - Haier's air conditioning business is performing better than expected despite price war pressures, with significant improvements in product quality and cost efficiency achieved through increased R&D and self-manufacturing of core components [10][11] Regional Performance - Haier has shown strong performance in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with market shares nearing 40% in Turkey and Pakistan, and ranking third in India with a 7% market share. The company has improved profitability through product structure enhancements and digital transformation [3][18] - The company’s global building business unit achieved a significant milestone by surpassing 10 billion yuan in revenue for the first time in 2024, driven by self-manufacturing of key components and new product launches [12] Future Outlook - The overall home appliance market is expected to remain stable in 2025, despite a potential slowdown in growth rates due to high base effects from 2024. Haier aims to maintain its market share without engaging in price competition [21][22] - Investors express concerns about the cyclical nature of the appliance industry, but long-term stability is expected due to strong replacement demand for refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [22] Valuation and Investment Perspective - Haier's current valuation is at a near ten-year low, with a dividend yield at a ten-year high, presenting an attractive investment opportunity. The company’s transformation and execution capabilities are expected to drive future profit and dividend growth [23][24] Conclusion - Haier Smart Home is navigating a complex market landscape with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiency and product offerings. The company is well-positioned to leverage its global production capabilities and local market insights to sustain growth and profitability in the home appliance sector.

| 芳烃橡胶早报 | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 | P T A | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | POY 1 | PTA平衡 | PX CFR PTA内盘现 | PTA负 | PTA加 | 石脑油 | 0年+有 | 白胸准裂 | PX加工美 | 日期 | 50D/4 | 原油 | TA基美 ...

| 燃料油早报 | | --- | 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/02 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/25 | 414.85 | 468.83 | -1.74 | 653.84 | -185.01 | 22.12 | 53.98 | | 2025/06/26 | 413.96 | 474.16 | -2.49 | 661.27 | -187.11 | 23.04 | 60.20 | | 2025/06/27 | 411.99 | 474.54 | -2.26 | 644.22 | -169.68 | 20.75 | 62.55 | | 2025/ ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格： ...

7月1日，中国汽车流通协会发布的最新一期"中国汽车经销商库存预警指数调查"VIA（Vehicle Inventory Alert Index）显示，2025年6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为56.6%，同比下降5.7个百分点，环比上升 3.9个百分点。库存预警指数位于荣枯线之上，汽车流通行业景气度有所下降。 多家车企公布6月销量数据 比亚迪7月1日公布产销快报显示，6月新能源汽车销量382585辆，本年累计汽车销量215万辆；吉利汽车 6月汽车销量236036辆，同比增长42%。吉利汽车将全年销售目标上调11%，从271万辆上调至300万 辆。长城汽车6月销量为11.07万台，同比增长12.86%。 新势力方面，鸿蒙智行6月单月全系交付52747辆；零跑汽车6月全系交付48006台，同比增长超138%；6 月理想汽车交付新车36279辆；小鹏6月共交付新车34611台，同比增长224%；蔚来公司6月交付24925辆 汽车，同比增长17.5%。 雷军：小米YU7将开启限时改配，锁单用户可参与 6月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为56.6%，同比下降5.7个百分点 广汽集团在互动平台表示，华望汽车作为广汽集团与华为战 ...

美国防部暂停向乌克兰提供部分承诺的军火 智通财经7月2日电，据央视新闻报道，因担心美国武器库存过低，美国国防部已停止向乌克兰运送部分 防空导弹和其他精确制导武器。知情人士透露称，美国炮弹、防空导弹和精确制导武器的总量正在减 少。暂停向乌克兰提供部分援助的最初决定是在6月初做出的，但直到现在才生效。 ...

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，6月27日当周，美国API原油库存 +68万桶，之前一周 -427.7万桶。 ...