品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹，关注周末 OPEC+会议。消息称伊朗暂停与国 际原子能机构合作，地缘担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看， OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消 费旺季，油价下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较 大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹 油价企稳，库存下降，液化气反弹。地缘担忧再起，成本端油价企稳反弹； 下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库存均 上升。策略：短线反弹，但上方受限，反弹偏空。PG【4200-4300】 L 空头反弹 现货涨价，华北基差为-64（环比+44），近期装置检修加强，新装置暂未 释放，供给压力边际缓解。LD、HD 进口窗口打开。需求淡季，下游刚需 拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等 合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产，中长期预期偏弱。策略：短期反弹思路对 待。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头反弹 出口毛利转正，低价成交略有放量，成本支撑好转，MTO 盘面利润同期 ...

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 反弹偏空 地缘担忧再起，油价反弹。消息称伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作，地缘 担忧再起，短期油价反弹；从供需基本面看，OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增 产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价下方有一定支 撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买 看涨期权保护。SC【495-515】 LPG 反弹偏空 油价企稳叠加化工利润改善，液化气反弹。油价重回基本面定价，短线企 稳；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端 中性偏空，厂库和港口库存均有所上升。策略：反弹偏空，可轻仓试空。 PG【4150-4300】 L 空头盘整 社会库存转为累库，现货继续下跌。华北基差为-108（环比-59），LD、 HD 进口窗口打开。装置重启增多，预计本周产量增加至 60.7 万吨。近期 上中游库存显著下滑，需求淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化 力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时代、裕龙石化等合计 205 万吨新装置计划投产， 中长期预期偏弱。策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 下游订单持续偏弱，基差走弱，出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]

【苯乙烯现货】 华东市场苯乙烯市场小幅震荡，至收盘现货7530-7560，7月下7500-7550（8合约+265~290），8月下 7380-7420（08合约+150），9月下7300-7330（09合约+150），单位：元/吨。 【纯苯现货】 纯苯市场先跌后低位反弹，截至收盘江苏港口现货商谈5810/5820元/吨，7月下商谈5860/5865元/吨，8 月下商谈5900/5910元/吨，9月下商谈5915/5925元/吨。 苯乙烯下游：截至6月26日，EPS产能利用率59.72%，环比+6.09%；PS产能利用率57.4%，环比-1.3%； ABS产能利用率66%，环比+2.03%。 【苯乙烯行情展望】 纯苯市场先跌后低位反弹。开盘市场依旧延续交易纯苯供应回归和部分新装置投产，价格偏弱运行，下 午原油及苯乙烯盘面反弹提振，纯苯市场商谈跌幅放缓，低位反弹，但纯苯7下纸货与08盘面苯乙烯加 工差扩大至1400元/吨。苯乙烯方面华东市场苯乙烯市场整体走稳，随着月底纸货交割临近，基差价格 较为强势，市场换货交易为主，整体高价交投有限，下游高价提货观望。中期看关税及国补或难对终端 需求有进一步驱动，苯乙烯高利润 ...

Group 1 - The rumor regarding Tangshan's sintering machine production cut of 30% from July 4 to 15 has been confirmed by approximately half of the steel mills, with a likelihood of confirmation from the remaining mills. Current production is 270,000 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 83%, which may drop to 70% under the new policy, resulting in a reduction of 30,000 tons per day [1] - In the Ordos region, most coal mines are maintaining stable production, with some previously reduced or shut down mines gradually resuming operations, leading to a recovery in overall coal supply [1] - India's palm oil imports surged by 61% month-on-month in June, reaching 953,000 tons, the highest level in 11 months, while total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1,530,000 tons, marking a seven-month high [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, with East China seeing an increase of 13,500 tons and South China experiencing a decrease of 10,300 tons [2] - The Indonesian government plans to shorten the mining quota (RKAB) duration from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and mineral supplies [2] - Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center indicates that soybean procurement for August shipping is nearly complete, with September shipping at nearly 50% and no purchases for October to December shipping, highlighting the need to monitor future purchases and import arrivals of soybeans [2]

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are experiencing inventory accumulation and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1] Natural Rubber Market Analysis - Qingdao port's total inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouse inventory and a significant increase in general trade [1] - The overall inventory is increasing, and there is significant pressure to deplete it, with seasonal supply expectations adding to the fundamental pressure [1] - Overseas weather improvements are aiding rubber tapping operations, while domestic rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan is causing slow increases in raw material supply, keeping procurement prices firm [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with downstream enterprises primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the latter half of the week [1] Synthetic Rubber Market Analysis - The macro environment is slightly positive, boosting market sentiment, but the market is expected to return to supply-demand fundamentals after the news impact diminishes [1] - In the butadiene market, synthetic rubber strength is uplifting market sentiment, but external export prices are low, leading to cautious buying from downstream [1] - The supply side of synthetic rubber shows a slight increase in polybutadiene rubber production, while demand from tire manufacturers remains stable [1] - There are no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals, leading to insufficient rebound in futures prices, with expectations of continued range-bound trading [1] Trading Strategies - For natural rubber, the accumulation at Qingdao port is putting upward pressure on futures prices, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [1] - Suggested strategies include cautious short positions at highs, with support levels for RU at 13400 - 13500 and resistance levels at 14100 - 14200; for NR, support at 11700 - 11800 and resistance at 12300 - 12400 [1] - For synthetic rubber, the macro environment is supportive, but the lack of positive fundamentals suggests a continuation of range-bound trading, with BR support levels at 10700 - 10800 and resistance at 11600 - 11700 [1]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡走高，上涨 0.66%至 9943 | 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.46%至 80390 | | | | | 元/吨；现货进口维系亏损态势。宏观方面，美国 6 月 | ISM 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连 | | | | | 续四个月萎缩，预期为 48.8，前值为 48.5。美国 5 月 | JOLTS 职位空缺 776.9 万人，高 | | | | | 于预期的 730 万人，前值为 739.1 | 万人，该数值大幅超出市场预期，显示市场韧性。 | | | | | 美联储主席鲍威尔在一次会议上未排除 7 | 月降息可能，称若非关税已降息，关税料将 | | | | | 对通胀产生影响。关税方面，7 月 9 | 日关税重启最后期限，特朗普政府正在调整贸易 | | | | 铜 | | 谈判策略，从寻求全面互惠协议转向更有限的分阶段协议，以避免对部分国家重新征 | | | | | 收严厉关税。库存方面， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bearish stance on plastics for unilateral trading, with no specific strategy for inter - period trading [3] Core Viewpoints - It is the off - season for downstream demand, with limited boosting effects. The agricultural film industry has low operating rates, and other end - user industries are running weakly. Upstream inventory is being depleted, while inventory reduction in the mid - stream trading sector is slow. International oil and propane prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Some previously shut - down and overhauled plants have resumed operation, and new supply has slightly increased. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional overhaul season, and future intensive overhauls of existing plants will relieve some of the new supply pressure [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7249 yuan/ton (- 12), and that of the PP main contract is 7044 yuan/ton (- 26). The LL North China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (- 50), the LL East China spot price is 7300 yuan/ton (- 50), and the PP East China spot price is 7120 yuan/ton (- 40). The LL North China basis is - 59 yuan/ton (- 38), the LL East China basis is 51 yuan/ton (- 38), and the PP East China basis is 76 yuan/ton (- 14) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 378.7 yuan/ton (+ 19.9), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.3 yuan/ton (+ 19.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 274.9 yuan/ton (+ 6.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data summary is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 48.2 yuan/ton (+ 10.1), the PP import profit is - 496.8 yuan/ton (- 182.2), and the PP export profit is 23.2 US dollars/ton (+ 1.2) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory is being depleted, while inventory reduction in the mid - stream trading sector is slow. No specific inventory data is provided [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with market sentiment dominating and short - term trading recommended. The supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventory is rising, and tire operating rate is at a high level. There are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, foreign spot being strong, domestic inventory rising, and tire operating rate at a high level [6]. - The basis is - 145 (spot price is 13950), indicating a bearish signal [6]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is a bullish signal [6]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is at a high level. The raw material price is strong, and the spot price is resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange has changed little recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has also changed little recently [16][19]. - **Import**: The import volume has a seasonal decline [22]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have a seasonal decline, while tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports have a seasonal increase [25][28][31]. 3.3 Basis - The basis widened on July 1st [37]. 3.4 Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 whole latex (not for delivery) decreased on July 1st [10]. 3.5 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, raw material prices are strong, and spot prices are resistant to decline [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Supply is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8].