交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，零星聚酯工厂补货。12月货在01贴30~35附近商 谈成交，价格商谈区间在4675~4710。本周仓单在01-39成交，下周初仓单在01-35有成交，今日主流现货基差在01-32。中性 2、基差：现货4685，01合约基差-39，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.92天，环比增加0.14天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：日内PTA现货市场商谈氛围清淡，报递盘僵持，期 ...

Group 1: General Information - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on December 5, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Meal Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, Brazilian soybean premiums increased, and the cost of imported soybeans slightly rose. Domestic soybean meal spot prices were stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton. Meal trading was weak, but pick - up was good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. Last week, feed enterprises' inventory days were 8.17 days, up 0.19 days from the previous week. Domestic soybeans and soybean meal stocks increased last week due to high crushing volume, and apparent consumption was flat compared to the previous period [2] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 89% of the expected area. USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. However, since the global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio for the forecast year is still relatively high, it is not enough to generate a market with high planting profits on the CBOT soybean futures. It is expected that the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate without significant problems in South American weather [3] Strategy - The bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, soybean meal inventory is large, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Fats and Oils Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared to the same period last month, is expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increase by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decrease by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - The National Grain and Oil Information Center expects palm oil prices to slightly correct in the near future. Market expectations of a large month - on - month decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in November may cause inventories to rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, waiting for MPOB data. Indonesia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and concerns about floods have eased, which is negative for palm oil prices. However, the expected production cut in November is starting to materialize, and rainfall in the producing areas will increase seasonally in December, supporting the price bottom. The correction is expected to be limited [7] - On Thursday, domestic fats and oils gave back some gains, and foreign investors increased short positions in the three major fats and oils. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in November and less purchasing by India in November are suppressing the market. There is still an expectation of destocking in the medium term, waiting for clear data [8] Strategy - Excessive production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia is suppressing the market, and high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of inventory build - up due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's current high production cannot continue, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its recent high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - correction strategy [10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. The closing price of the January contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,410 - 5,510 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the new sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,820 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Guangxi spot sugar to the Zhengzhou sugar main contract was 82 yuan/ton [11] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; as of the end of November, the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and sugar production was 983,000 tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [11] Strategy - It is currently estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, international sugar prices may not improve much. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the general direction is still bearish. However, domestic sugar prices are already at a relatively low level, the difficulty of long - short games has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when prices fall [12] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B to the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,208 yuan/ton [14] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, flat compared to last week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the five - year average of 72.1%. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The 2025/26 global cotton production in the latest USDA monthly supply - demand report was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the US production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; India's production remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [15] Strategy - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in futures prices had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, short - term funds have entered the market to push up cotton prices, but there is no strong driving force for now. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of Zhengzhou cotton having a unilateral trending market is not high [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or declined. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.04 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao remained at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was basically normal, the downstream digestion speed was slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory in each link increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stable. It is expected that today's national egg prices will mostly be stable, with a few declining [19] Strategy - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. In the short term, this reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory build - up and capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts on the futures market cannot be falsified for now. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal stocking ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [20] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mainly declined, with some areas stable or slightly rising. The average price in Henan rose 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan remained at 11.34 yuan/kg. Farmers were active in selling pigs, the market supply was abundant, and the demand was also slowly increasing. Today, pig prices are expected to be mainly stable, with prices in areas with large supply continuing to decline, and prices in some northern areas with limited supply may rise slightly [22] Strategy - The theoretical number of pigs for slaughter is still large, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter plans is average. Under the background of increased slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the release of second - fattening pens by small farmers is slow. The supply - side pressure remains, and there will be further increases in the future. In contrast, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic curing activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures valuation is not low and the spot market is driving the price down, a strategy of shorting the near - month contracts or reverse arbitrage is recommended [23]

Summary of Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week was mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly. As the production of previously - overhauled enterprises gradually returned to normal, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased week - on - week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise was slow. In the short term, the production control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,400 - 10,900 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 10,455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 32,069, a decrease of 6,917; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber was 5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber was 3,340 tons, a decrease of 10 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was 62.67 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.22 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 567.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 58.95 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.31 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 7,425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.94 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 54.99%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points; the monthly output of butadiene rubber was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45 percentage points; the weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber was 32,400 tons, an increase of 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 69.19%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.33%, an increase of 1.08 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.42 million pieces, a decrease of 720,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 51.68 million pieces, a decrease of 8.57 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong was 39.95 days, a decrease of 0.29 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong was 45.23 days, a decrease of 0.63 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The production of overhauled sample enterprises gradually resumed during the week, driving the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points from the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the same period last year. As of December 4, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to continuous downstream price - pressing, the trading performance was weak [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the nickel market, due to high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound. For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventories, and a continuously declining cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to stay in a low - level震荡 state [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 118,050 yuan/ton and closed at 117,870 yuan/ton, a change of 0.11% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 112,448 (+23,926) lots, and the open interest was 118,618 (-3,306) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel continued a slight rebound, supported by the improved liquidity expectation as the probability of a 25 - bp Fed rate cut in December approached 90%. However, fundamentals suppressed the price, resulting in limited rebound strength with an amplitude of about 1.12%. In November, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a 14.85% month - on - month decrease, narrowing the surplus situation [1] - The nickel ore market was quiet with a wait - and - see attitude. Nickel ore prices were under pressure due to recent lower transactions and weak downstream ferronickel prices. In the Philippines, mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, and northern mines had not started new tenders. Downstream iron plants, facing losses, tried to lower raw - material prices, and some planned production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream domestic trade premium was +25 [2] - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various brands were generally stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed - 50 yuan/ton to 4,850 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 32,595 (+244) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 252,990 (-84) tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range - bound operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Market Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 80,361 (-14,747) lots, and the open interest was 96,947 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel continued to be led by the Shanghai nickel price and showed a slight rebound, but the amplitude was only 65 yuan/ton, the smallest in recent times. Fundamentals changed little recently, and the continuous rebound trend might continue due to the increased Fed rate - cut expectation, but the rebound strength was expected to be limited [3] - Market confidence had increased recently, and transactions improved to some extent. However, due to fundamental constraints, spot trading cooled today compared with yesterday, and quotes were basically flat. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was also 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 315 - 515 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas gasoline supply is gradually recovering, leading to significant short - term arrival pressure on pure benzene, with an accelerated accumulation rate of port inventory. Downstream operations remain at a low level during the off - season. Styrene is under maintenance with low load, and CPL operation is further declining at a low level. Although the operations of phenol, aniline, and adipic acid have slightly increased, terminal demand is still weak [3]. - The port basis of styrene continues to strengthen slightly, but the port inventory does not continue to decline, and there is still arrival pressure. The procurement by downstream enterprises drives the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to their enthusiasm for holding goods during the off - season. Styrene is still in the low - operation stage of maintenance, and the resumption plan is postponed. However, the downstream operation during the off - season is still low. The operation of EPS with obvious seasonality continues to decline, the operation of PS rebounds but there is still inventory pressure, and the finished - product inventory of ABS still has pressure while the operation remains at a low level [3]. 3. Summary of Each Directory I. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 116 yuan/ton (+3), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 155 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 115 yuan/ton (+64 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profit and Domestic - Foreign Spread of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The processing fee of pure benzene CFR China is 102 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), the processing fee of pure benzene FOB South Korea is 92 dollars/ton (+0 dollars/ton), and the price difference between the US and South Korea is 184.9 dollars/ton (+15.1 dollars/ton). The production profit of downstream products varies, such as - 550 yuan/ton (+85) for caprolactam, - 827 yuan/ton (- 225) for phenol - acetone, 753 yuan/ton (+254) for aniline, and - 1218 yuan/ton (+34) for adipic acid [1]. - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 67 yuan/ton (+94 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The import profit and other relevant spreads are presented in the report [1][34]. III. Inventory and Operating Rate of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 22.40 tons (+6.00 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different changes, with the caprolactam operating rate at 86.68% (- 1.54%), the phenol operating rate at 81.00% (+2.00%), the aniline operating rate at 77.19% (+1.51%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 59.40% (+3.90%) [1]. - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 160,600 tons (- 3,600 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 96,400 tons (+2,200 tons), and the operating rate is 67.3% (- 1.7%) [1]. IV. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Styrene Downstream Products - EPS: The production profit is 17 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 54.75% (- 1.52%) [2]. - PS: The production profit is - 83 yuan/ton (+16 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 57.60% (+1.70%) [2]. - ABS: The production profit is - 644 yuan/ton (- 44 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.20% (- 1.20%) [2]. V. Operating Rate and Production Profit of Pure Benzene Downstream Products The production profit and operating rate data of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid are as mentioned above in the production profit and inventory and operating rate parts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Conduct long inter - period spread trading for EB2601 - EB2602 at low prices. - Cross - variety: Expand the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The global soybean supply in the 2025/26 season has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, and the bottom of the import cost may have emerged, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The palm oil market may reverse the current supply - surplus situation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. The sugar market is expected to be weak due to increased global production. The cotton market is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. The egg market has a short - term long and medium - term short outlook. The pig market suggests a short - selling approach for near - term contracts or reverse spreads [2][3][5][10][13][18][21][24] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean and Soybean Meal 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans declined, the Brazilian soybean premium decreased slightly, and the cost of imported soybeans also dropped slightly. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the East China price at 3,010 yuan/ton, and the trading and delivery were good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.1353 million tons, compared with 2.2038 million tons last week. The inventory days of feed enterprises last week were 8.17 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 days. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories increased last week mainly due to high crushing volume, while the apparent consumption remained flat [2] - The 2025/26 soybean planting area in Brazil has reached 89% of the expected area as of last Thursday. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has changed from an increase in both supply and demand to a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, but the annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, so it is difficult to generate a high - profit situation in the CBOT soybean market. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans will mainly fluctuate [3] 策略观点 - The global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, and the total production is now equal to the total demand. The global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 2024/25 season, indicating that the bottom of the import cost may have appeared, but the upward space requires greater production cuts. Currently, the domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, the soybean meal inventory is large, and the crushing profit is under pressure. However, as it gradually enters the destocking season, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [5] Palm Oil 行情资讯 - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, 10% - 15.5% in the first 15 days, 14.1% - 20.5% in the first 20 days, 16.4% - 18.8% in the first 25 days, and 19.9% for the whole month of November. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.8% in the first 5 days of November, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days, was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days, increased by 5.49% in the first 25 days, and decreased by 0.19% in the first 30 days [7] - On Wednesday, domestic palm oil futures fluctuated. Foreign investors reduced their short positions in palm oil and increased their long positions in soybean oil and rapeseed oil. The market still has high expectations for palm oil destocking during the production - reduction season. The domestic spot basis was stable [8][9] 策略观点 - The over - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market performance, and the high - frequency export data has declined. The current situation of supply surplus and inventory accumulation in palm oil may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production cannot be sustained, the destocking time may come earlier. If Indonesia maintains its high - yield record, palm oil will continue to be weak. It is recommended to try a long - on - dips strategy [10] Sugar 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased slightly. The closing price of the January contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the new - sugar price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,460 - 5,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the new - sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,440 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of processing sugar mills was 5,750 - 5,830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar main - contract price was 94 yuan/ton [12] - As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 15.2 million tons year - on - year; the sugar production was 4.135 million tons, an increase of 1.375 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 8.51%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points year - on - year. In the first half of November, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 18.761 million tons, an increase of 14.3% year - on - year, and the sugar production was 0.983 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year - on - year [12] 策略观点 - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has changed from shortage to surplus. Until the first quarter of next year, the international sugar price may not have much room for improvement. Coupled with the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the overall view is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is already at a relatively low level, and the difficulty of long - short game has increased, and the probability of a trending market has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies and close positions when the price drops [13] Cotton 行情资讯 - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,005 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main - contract price was 1,225 yuan/ton [15] - As of the week of November 28, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 6.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years. The national commercial cotton inventory was 4.18 million tons, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. The USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report showed that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September forecast. Among them, the production in the United States was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons, Brazil's production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons, India's production remained at 5.23 million tons, and China's production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons [16] 策略观点 - Fundamentally, the peak season was not prosperous before, but the demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous decline in the futures price had digested the negative impact of the domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was short - term capital inflow to push up the cotton price, but there was no strong driving force. Coupled with the pressure of hedging positions, the probability of a unilateral trend in the Zhengzhou cotton market was not high [18] Eggs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and declined in others. The average price in the main production areas decreased by 0.01 yuan to 3.05 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao decreased by 0.03 yuan to 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales were slow, most traders were not confident about the future market, the inventory at all levels increased slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was normal. It is expected that today's egg price will be mostly stable and slightly decline in some areas [20] 策略观点 - Continuous losses have led to a strong sentiment of culling laying hens. The far - month contracts are relatively strong, while the near - month contracts fluctuate between reflecting the spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. In the short term, it reflects the resonance between spot seasonal inventory accumulation and production capacity reduction. The strength of the near - and far - month contracts under the premium situation cannot be falsified for the time being. In the medium term, as the far - month contracts offer reasonable breeding profits, the production capacity reduction will slow down, and after the seasonal replenishment ends, attention should be paid to the upper pressure. A short - term long and medium - term short strategy is recommended [21] Pigs 行情资讯 - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.25 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 11.34 yuan/kg. The southern pig farms had a large number of pigs for sale, and the market sales were poor. Today, the pig price is expected to mainly decline. After the decline in the northern pig price, the pig farms showed some resistance to price cuts, so there may be some stability and slight increase in the pig price [23] 策略观点 - The theoretical number of pigs for sale is still large, the completion rate of the large - scale pig farms' sales plan is average. Under the background of high slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still higher than the same period last year and continues to increase month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stagnated at a high level, and the second - fattening pens of small - scale farmers are slowly releasing. The supply pressure remains, and there will still be an increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, the demand has been lukewarm, with only sporadic bacon - making activities in some areas, which has limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures price is not low and the spot price has a downward impact on it, a strategy of short - selling near - month contracts or reverse spreads is recommended [24]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | | | | | | | 铅锌日评20251204：区间整理 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | 2025/12/4 单位 | 今值 | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | | | | 0.15% | | | | 元/吨 17,075.00 | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | | | | 0.00% | | | | 17,210.00 元/吨 | | | | 沪铅基差 | | | | 25.00 | | | | 元/吨 -135.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 | | | | - | | | | 元/吨 25.00 | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | | | | -0.82 | | | | -42.45 美元/吨 | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | | | | 2.50 | | | | 美元/吨 ...

Copper - Copper prices surged significantly overnight, reaching historical highs, while domestic refined copper import losses expanded [2][9] - LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons [2][9] - The market sentiment is shifting towards a bullish outlook for copper prices due to tight LME inventory and structural issues in global visible inventory [2][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.92% to $14,875 per ton, while SHFE nickel slightly decreased by 0.02% to 117,590 yuan per ton [3][10] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, indicating a tightening supply [3][10] - The nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain is experiencing weak demand, with an expected decrease in the production of ternary precursors in December [3][10] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Aluminum oxide prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,632 yuan per ton, down 0.53% [4][11] - SHFE aluminum prices increased to 22,010 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.53% rise, while aluminum alloy prices decreased [4][11] - Market expectations indicate that environmental production limits in northern aluminum oxide plants have not materialized, leading to a correction in prices [4][11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices decreased by 1.6% to 8,920 yuan per ton, while polysilicon prices increased by 1.89% to 57,430 yuan per ton [5][12] - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable, but demand is anticipated to decline significantly [5][12] - The solar photovoltaic sector is experiencing a slowdown in demand, with major orders decreasing, leading to a negative feedback effect in the supply chain [5][12] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 2.82% to 93,660 yuan per ton, with average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping by 50 yuan to 94,350 yuan per ton [6][12] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 265 tons to 21,865 tons, while demand for ternary materials increased [6][12] - The overall inventory turnover days decreased to 26.3 days, but the market may face a slowdown in inventory reduction due to expected increases in supply and decreases in demand [6][12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not clearly rated - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White stars, indicating short - term balance and poor operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Styrene: なな☆ - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: 女女女 - Ethylene Glycol: 女女女 - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ななな - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ななな - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having their own supply - demand relationships and price trends. Some products are in a state of supply - demand balance, while others face supply or demand pressures. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand [2][3][5] Summary According to Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate widely, with good downstream demand and rising offers. Plastic and polypropylene futures oscillate. Polyethylene has limited market drivers and a weakening cost - support. Polypropylene may see a slight increase in production as some maintenance devices restart [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are in a low - level oscillation, with a slight rebound in East China's spot and rising buying interest in Shandong. There is a downward pressure due to high arrival expectations and falling demand. Styrene futures rise, supported by an improved supply - demand structure [3] Polyester - PX and PTA fall as the impact of the blending market weakens. PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term, while PTA may continue with cost - driven logic. Ethylene glycol has a weak medium - term outlook but limited downward space. Short - fiber has a relatively good long - term supply - demand pattern, while bottle - grade PET has a weakening demand and over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures oscillate and correct. The port inventory may remain high, and the market may continue to oscillate in a range. Urea futures rise, and production enterprises are destocking. However, the overall supply is still loose, and the downstream chasing sentiment may decline [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC shows an oscillating trend. Export may improve, but domestic demand is weak. Supply pressure may ease, and it is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda continues to decline due to high supply, low demand, and still - profitable conditions [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash falls. The industry is destocking, and the supply is expected to oscillate at a high level. The demand for heavy soda is shrinking. Glass futures are weak, with low demand and a need for further cold - repair to drive up prices [8]