Report Information - Authors: Yang Lina, Hu Bin, Liang Haikuan [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: Beijing Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2012] No. 75 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The non - ferrous sector is expected to gradually recover, with warming expectations of interest rate cuts and positive demand expectations. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period is approaching, and there may be short - term recoveries in non - ferrous metals, but the upward movement requires positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals. However, the contradiction between strong reality and weak expectations will cause fluctuations and adjustments [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector is trending towards recovery. Interest rate cut expectations are warming up. China's manufacturing data shows a slight improvement, while the US manufacturing growth is slowing, and inflation is moderately rising, further boosting interest rate cut expectations. Non - ferrous metals continued to fluctuate and recover this week. Attention should be paid to the resonance signals between macro and micro factors. The upward space needs positive resonance from each variety's fundamentals [12]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper have turned to a situation of both supply and demand booming, with demand rising faster. The price center is expected to shift upwards, with short - term support at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton and pressure at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The supply in China is increasing while demand is weak. Zinc prices are fluctuating and rebounding, with short - term support at 21600 - 21800 and pressure at 22800 - 23200. It is recommended to be slightly bullish in the short - term [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Shanghai aluminum is oscillating and falling in the high - level range. It is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 20000 - 20200 and pressure at 21000 - 21200. Alumina is oscillating weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating and consolidating [5][13]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are in a weak pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, with support at 250000 - 255000 and pressure at 270000 - 290000 [6][14]. - **Lead**: The supply is shrinking, and demand is in the peak - season expectation. Lead prices are fluctuating and rebounding. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips, with support at 16600 - 16800 and pressure at 17200 - 17400 [8][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are rebounding, and stainless steel is following nickel's upward trend. It is recommended to be slightly bullish on dips for both. Nickel has support at 115000 - 116000 and pressure at 123000 - 125000; stainless steel has support at 12700 - 12800 and pressure at 13000 - 13200 [9][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Copper closed at 79780 with a 0.47% increase; zinc closed at 22175 with a 0.16% increase; aluminum closed at 20645 with a 0.46% decrease; alumina closed at 3008 with a 0.92% decrease; tin closed at 273240 with a 1.94% decrease; lead closed at 16855 with a 0.15% decrease; nickel closed at 123450 with a 1.44% increase; stainless steel closed at 12950 with a 1.05% increase; cast aluminum alloy closed at 20275 with a 0.37% decrease [18]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Analyzes the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, net long - position changes, and net short - position changes of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, gold, etc., and the influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - Presents the spot prices and price changes of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Provides various charts related to the industry chain of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, cast aluminum alloy, lead, nickel, and stainless steel, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [22][24][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Contains various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage, such as copper's Shanghai - London ratio, zinc's Shanghai - London ratio, and the price differences between different varieties [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Includes various charts related to non - ferrous metals options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [66][69][71]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model estimates monthly revenue and profit growth rates for the coal industry based on changes in price and capacity factors[10][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The pricing mechanism is determined by the last price index of the previous month, which sets the sales price for the next month[10] 2. The model uses year-on-year changes in price factors and capacity factors to estimate revenue and profit growth rates on a monthly basis[10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to track and predict industry profitability trends, but it is sensitive to price fluctuations and external shocks[15] 2. Model Name: Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model predicts the supply-demand gap for hogs six months in advance based on the relationship between sow inventory and hog slaughter rates[16][17] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model assumes a stable proportional relationship between quarterly hog slaughter and sow inventory lagged by six months[16] 2. The formula for the slaughter coefficient is: $ \text{Slaughter Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Quarterly Hog Slaughter}}{\text{Sow Inventory (Lagged 6 Months)}} $[16] 3. The potential supply six months later is calculated as: $ \text{Potential Supply (t+6)} = \text{Sow Inventory (t)} \times \text{Slaughter Coefficient (t+6)} $[17] 4. The potential demand six months later is estimated using historical quarterly slaughter data[17] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies hog price cycles but relies heavily on the accuracy of historical slaughter coefficients[17] 3. Model Name: Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts monthly profit growth and per-ton profitability for the steel industry by integrating steel prices and raw material costs[19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model incorporates comprehensive steel prices and costs of raw materials such as iron ore, coke, pulverized coal, and scrap steel[19] 2. Monthly profit growth rates and per-ton profitability are calculated based on these inputs[19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a detailed view of profitability trends but may not fully capture external demand-side factors[23] 4. Model Name: Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks profitability changes in the glass and cement industries using price and cost indicators, and generates allocation signals based on these changes[25] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model monitors price and cost indicators to assess profitability trends[25] 2. It incorporates manufacturing PMI and real estate sales data to evaluate macroeconomic impacts on industry expectations[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is useful for identifying short-term profitability trends but may be limited by the lag in macroeconomic data updates[26] 5. Model Name: Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model estimates profit growth and cracking spreads for the refining industry based on changes in fuel prices, crude oil prices, and new drilling activity[27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The model calculates profit growth rates using changes in fuel and crude oil prices[27] 2. Cracking spreads are derived from the difference between product prices and raw material costs[27] 3. Allocation signals are generated based on oil price trends and drilling activity[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model captures key profitability drivers but may not fully account for geopolitical risks affecting oil prices[34][35] --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. Coal Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Excess Return**: The coal industry underperformed the Wind All-A Index by -9.8% in August 2025[10] 2. Hog Supply-Demand Gap Estimation Model - **Supply-Demand Balance**: The potential supply for Q1 2026 is estimated at 19,380 million heads, while the demand is forecasted at 19,476 million heads, indicating a slightly tight balance[18] 3. Steel Industry Profit Forecast Model - **Profit Growth**: The steel industry is predicted to achieve positive year-on-year profit growth in August 2025[23] 4. Glass and Cement Industry Profitability Tracking Model - **Glass Industry**: Profit margins continued to decline year-on-year in August 2025, but the rate of decline narrowed[26] - **Cement Industry**: Profitability slightly declined year-on-year in August 2025[26] 5. Refining and Oilfield Services Profitability Model - **Refining Industry**: Profit growth for August 2025 is predicted to be positive[28] - **Oilfield Services**: Oil prices in August 2025 were lower than the previous year, and drilling activity remained stable, leading to a neutral allocation signal[35]

Stock Market - The major index showed a strong upward trend last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points, marking a ten-year high [1] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market reached nearly 400 billion, recovering to around 3 trillion, with three trading days exceeding 3 trillion this week [1] - The overall performance of important indices was positive, with the ChiNext Index and STAR Market Index both rising nearly 8%, while the micro-cap sector lagged with a decline of nearly 4% [1] - Global markets experienced a general pullback, with A-shares showing significant resilience compared to H-shares, which saw the Hang Seng Index drop over 1% [1] - Key sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and commercial aerospace performed actively, while traditional sectors like coal, banking, and utilities faced pressure [1] Equity Market - The equity market is in a bullish sentiment driven by multiple favorable factors, including a loose policy environment and rising investor risk appetite [2] - The manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery, although it was below the market expectation of 49.5% [2] - Both domestic and external demand are showing support, with production indices improving and raw material inventories being replenished [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in September and potential further cuts in the coming months [2] Bond Market - The bond market continues to show weak fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.75% before rebounding [3] - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with prices declining, although transaction volumes are relatively stable [3] - The liquidity and policy environment are stable, with minor disturbances around tax periods affecting the bond market [3] - The issuance scale of government bonds has decreased year-on-year, but remains at a relatively high absolute level, impacting liquidity [3] Overall Market Dynamics - The rise in the equity market and the shift in institutional asset allocation from stocks to bonds have led to an increase in bond yields and an expansion of yield spreads [4] - There is ongoing pressure on bank liabilities, and attention is focused on the potential decrease in government bond issuance and credit growth [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the tin market has high social inventory, slow demand recovery, and a weakening bullish sentiment. Technically, attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 273,240 yuan/ton, down 5,410 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 220 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,950 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 35,983 lots, down 10,315 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,826 lots, down 2,484 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,010 tons, up 115 tons, and the LME tin cancellation warrant is 230 tons, up 120 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 7,215 tons, down 58 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,430 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, up 5,010 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 53 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates from Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. f. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]. g. View Summary - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by factors such as enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventory has remained high, and tin downstream is cautious about purchasing after price increases. The spot premium has fallen to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased. LME inventory has rebounded, but the spot premium has risen [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is in a situation of a small and stable increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook. Light - position range - bound trading is also advised [2]. - The cast aluminum market may see a slight reduction in supply and an increase in demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling trading at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,645 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,008 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 15,429 lots, while the positions of the alumina main contract increased by 7,078 lots [2]. - **LME Aluminum**: The three - month quote of LME electrolytic aluminum was 2,619 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,873 tons to 481,050 tons [2]. - **Other Aluminum Products**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,275 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the positions decreased by 127 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: Alumina production was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; demand was 722.07 million tons, up 25.88 million tons; supply - demand balance was 16.32 million tons, down 10.82 million tons. The import and export volumes both increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton. China's import and export volumes of aluminum scrap increased [2]. Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import and export volumes of primary aluminum increased. The total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production was 548.37 million tons, down 39.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products decreased, while the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased, while the built - in production capacity decreased [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The national real estate climate index decreased. The production of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days increased by 0.28%, while that for 40 days decreased by 0.40%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money decreased slightly, and the put - call ratio decreased [2]. Industry News - The US economic data shows a mixed situation, with the Fed hinting at a September interest rate cut. China's economic climate is generally expanding, but the auto circulation industry's climate has declined [2]. - The global auto market is at a peak level, and the performance of Chinese listed companies in the first half of 2025 is good in some industries [2].

Economic Indicators - In August 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from July[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index reached 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, with the services PMI at 50.5%, increasing by 0.5 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index improved to 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, while the manufacturing production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.8%[2] - The manufacturing production expectations index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 53.7%, indicating improved confidence[2] - The new export orders index rose by 0.1 percentage points to 47.2%, but remains below the 10-year average of 48.0%, suggesting potential risks for future export growth[2] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The PPI is expected to turn positive month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -2.8%[3] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI index reached 51.6%, a significant increase of 1.3 percentage points, reflecting strong demand and policy support[3] Service and Construction Sector Analysis - The services PMI index improved to 50.5%, driven by increased consumer activity during the summer and a strong stock market[4] - The construction PMI index fell to 49.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points, influenced by adverse weather and a cooling real estate market[5] Future Outlook - The manufacturing PMI is projected to slightly decline to around 49.3% in September, influenced by external trade agreements and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - Anticipated government policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market may provide support in the fourth quarter, with potential monetary easing measures expected[6]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August 2025, the Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 49.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - The production index rose to 50.8%, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months[14] - New orders index slightly increased to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, but still in the contraction zone[14] Sector Performance - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs were 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively[13] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively, indicating relative strength in these sectors[13] Price and Inventory Trends - The main raw materials purchase price index rose to 53.3%, up by 1.8 percentage points, indicating expansion, while the factory price index was at 49.1%, up by 0.8 percentage points[20] - The procurement volume index increased to 50.4%, up by 0.9 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved production-sales coordination[23] Service and Construction Sector Analysis - The service sector business activity index reached 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, driven by summer travel and active capital markets[24] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, with new orders index at 40.6%, down by 2.1 percentage points, indicating a significant seasonal decline[27] Risk Considerations - Real estate demand remains weak, posing a risk to overall economic recovery[4][29]

机构观点 8月份钢铁行业PMI为49.8%，环比下降0.7个百分点，降至收缩区间，但指数水平仅略低于50%理论临界 点，显示钢铁行业整体处于弱势稳定态势。 瑞达期货（002961）：宏观方面，美国上诉法院裁定美国总统特朗普实施的大部分全球关税政策非法， 并认为特朗普实施这些关税超越了其职权范围。供需情况，热卷周度产量小幅下调，产能利用率 82.95%，高位运行；库存微增，热卷终端韧性较强，表观需求维持在320万吨上方。整体上，钢市多空 交织，技术压力明显，期价疲软。技术上，HC2601合约1小时MACD指标显示DIFF与DEA向下调整。 操作上，短线交易，注意节奏和风险控制。 8月29日，上期所热轧卷板期货仓单24760吨，环比上个交易日持平。 【消息面汇总】 国信期货：供需情况看，季节性淡季尾声，板材供需情况仍有韧性，但建材带动钢材需求环比回落，市 场对旺季需求预期悲观。库存端压力明显增大，钢材产量面临压力，或酝酿负反馈逻辑。操作建议：短 线参与。 9月1日，热卷期货呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿主力合约报3289.00元/吨，跌幅2.00%。 本周，热卷库存总量为209.96万吨，较上周环比增加5.62万吨( ...

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but still in the contraction zone [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.3%, while the composite PMI rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.5%, suggesting overall economic recovery [1] - The hospitality and new orders indices in the accommodation sector, although still below 50%, showed significant month-on-month increases of over 5 percentage points, indicating strong consumer activity during the summer [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI has been below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months, highlighting persistent demand issues that negatively impact certain industrial product prices, such as steel and non-ferrous metals [1] - The input price index for raw materials stands at 53.3%, reflecting a 1.8% increase, which suggests rising cost pressures that may benefit energy, non-ferrous, and steel sectors [1] - The economic recovery is characterized as weak, with production recovery outpacing demand, indicating that companies may face challenges in increasing efficiency despite production increases [2]