Economic Overview - The overall economic output in China continues to expand, despite fluctuations due to extreme weather conditions and a weak demand side [2][4]. Manufacturing Sector - In July, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [2]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, while the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion for three consecutive months [2]. - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing PMIs were 50.6% and 50.3%, respectively, both above the critical point, showing sustained growth in these sectors [2]. Price Trends - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, while the factory price index was at 48.3% [3]. - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant improvements in their purchasing and factory price indices [3]. Business Activity in Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point [5]. - The construction sector experienced a slowdown, with its business activity index at 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [5]. - Service sector activity remained stable, with a business activity index of 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [5]. Future Outlook - Manufacturing enterprises maintain a positive outlook, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Non-manufacturing enterprises also show stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell due to weak demand, with a decrease of $87.5 or 0.9%, closing at $9,611.0 per ton on July 31 [1] - The U.S. copper price experienced the largest single-day drop in history, plummeting 22% to $4.37 per pound, or $9,638 per ton, after President Trump announced the exclusion of refined copper from a 50% import tariff [3] - The announcement led to a significant adjustment in investor positions, as many had previously imported copper to take advantage of price premiums [3] Group 2 - Major exchanges trade copper based on electrolytic copper, and the recent price drop has caused a slight discount of Comex copper relative to LME copper [4] - LME copper inventories have increased by approximately 50% over the past month, indicating potential supply issues if the price disparity continues [4] - Short-term copper prices are expected to remain weak due to seasonal demand downturns [5] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1.3% decline in the main copper contract, closing at 78,040 yuan per ton [6] - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3% in July, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [6] - The decline in PMI is attributed to seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions affecting certain regions [6]

Group 1: Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - In July, China's manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - Large enterprises had a PMI of 50.3, while medium and small enterprises recorded PMIs of 49.5 and 46.4, respectively, with small enterprises showing a significant contraction [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.1, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still above the critical point, indicating overall expansion in business activities [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without changes [3] - There is internal division among Fed officials regarding future rate cuts, with two officials supporting a reduction [4] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that the timing of any future rate cuts is under evaluation, particularly in light of potential weaknesses in the job market and consumer spending [4] Group 3: Company Earnings Reports - Meta reported Q2 revenue of $47.516 billion, a 22% increase year-over-year, with net profit rising 36% to $18.337 billion [5] - Microsoft achieved Q4 revenue of $76.4 billion, an 18% year-over-year growth, with net profit increasing by 24% to $27.2 billion [7] - Luckin Coffee's Q2 net income reached 1.251 billion yuan, a 43.6% increase, with total revenue of 12.359 billion yuan, up 47.1% year-over-year [9] Group 4: Industry Trends and Challenges - Ningde Times reported a 33.33% increase in net profit for the first half of the year, with total revenue of 178.886 billion yuan, but faced challenges from price competition in the domestic market [11][12] - The AI sector is driving significant revenue growth for companies like Meta and Microsoft, with both firms investing heavily in AI capabilities [6][8] - Luckin Coffee's aggressive pricing strategy to gain market share has led to increased delivery costs, raising concerns about long-term profitability [10] Group 5: Market Performance - On July 31, the Chinese stock market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.18% [15] - The market showed mixed performance with over 4,200 stocks declining, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and AI applications remained active [15][16] - The overall market sentiment was affected by expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy and trade negotiations [15]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on July 31, with a fixed rate and a total of 283.2 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 331 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's shift to net withdrawal in the open market had a limited impact on the interbank market, with the overnight repo weighted average rate (DR001) rising over 8 basis points and the 7-day rate increasing by more than 3 basis points [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.36% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, down more than 2 basis points from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Market - Major interbank bond yields collectively declined [9] - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.57%, the 10-year by 0.17%, the 5-year by 0.08%, and the 2-year by 0.01% [13] Group 5: Economic Indicators - China's official manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity; the composite PMI output index is at 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in production activities [14] - The Ministry of Commerce spokesperson discussed the recent China-US trade talks, indicating a commitment to stabilize trade relations and extend certain tariffs for 90 days [14] Group 6: Bond Issuance and Events - Agricultural Development Bank plans to issue its first interbank technology innovation bonds, with a maximum issuance of 2 billion yuan [17] - The issuance of special bonds for 2025 is nearing completion, with 33 regions disclosing a total scale of nearly 780 billion yuan [17] - Shenzhen Longguang Holdings has completed cash early repayment for six domestic bonds, totaling overdue loans of 28.5 billion yuan [17]

Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points but still indicating expansion for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first time since March that it exceeded the critical point, while the factory price index was at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points [2] - Industries such as petroleum, coal, and black metal processing saw significant rebounds in their purchasing and factory price indices, indicating improved market prices [2] Business Activity by Enterprise Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather, reflected in a business activity index of 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points [4] - Sectors related to travel and consumption, such as railway and air transport, maintained high business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth [4] Future Outlook - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, the overall economic foundation remains solid, with large enterprises continuing to play a stabilizing role [3] - The manufacturing sector's production activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, indicating optimism for future performance [3] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintain stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, suggesting continued growth in investment and consumption activities in the second half of the year [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - July Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.3%, below the expected 49.7% and previous value of 49.7%[1] - New orders in manufacturing decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, while production fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%[1] - Manufacturing new export orders dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 47.1%, slightly below the first half average of 47.3%[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - Raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while factory prices rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[3] - Procurement volume declined by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating insufficient demand constraints[3] - Finished goods inventory decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 47.4%, reflecting a preference for reducing stock rather than increasing production[3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month[1] - Construction activity index and new orders both fell by 2.2 percentage points, while service sector indices saw minor declines[4] - Employment indices in construction and manufacturing improved by 1.0 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a slight recovery in job markets[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Market Implications - Overall economic slowdown in July attributed to adverse weather conditions and previous export surges[5] - The composite PMI for July is at 50.2%, matching levels from April and July of the previous year[6] - Market risk appetite may be affected by the July PMI results, leading to potential volatility in stock markets[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The production index for July was 50.5%, reflecting a seasonal decline of 0.5 percentage points[13] - The new orders index fell to 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a stronger-than-seasonal decline in demand[13] Group 2: Sector Performance - The construction business activity index was 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, influenced by weak real estate demand and slowing fiscal spending on infrastructure projects[27] - The services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with tourism-related sectors performing well during the summer[25] - In key industries, the equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, while the consumer goods industry PMI dropped to 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points[12] Group 3: Raw Material Prices and Inventory - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, marking the first rise above the critical point since March 2025[19] - The procurement index fell to 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activity due to insufficient domestic demand[21] - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points, suggesting continued reduction in inventory levels[21] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including timely fiscal measures[29] - A total of 69 billion yuan was allocated in July for consumer support initiatives, with additional funds expected in October[29] - Urban renewal projects are anticipated to boost investment, particularly in municipal infrastructure and renovation of old neighborhoods[29]

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 31 日 ——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 制造业 PMI 季节性回落，价格指数回升 7 月 PMI 季节性回落，景气度有所下降。7 月制造业 PMI 环比下降 0.4pct 至 49.3%， 2021-2024 年的 7 月制造业 PMI 平均环比下降 0.38pct，今年 7 月下降或主要受部 分地区高温、暴雨、台风灾害等因素影响。7 月产需相关指数有所收缩，价格指数持 续回升。7 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.1%，环比下降 0.4pct，服务业商务活动指 数和建筑业商务活动指数分别为 50.0%和 50.6%，较上月分别-0.1pct/-2.2pct。7 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2%，较上月-0.5pct，仍位于扩张区间，显示企业生产经 营活动总体扩张虽有所减缓，但经济内生动力持续 ...

Domestic News - The Ministry of Commerce expressed China's expectation to deepen dialogue with the U.S. to achieve more win-win results following the recent economic talks held in Stockholm [1][2] - China's manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first decline in four months [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs, adding over 100 price items related to new medical technologies [2] International News - The Bank of Japan maintained its current interest rate level amid uncertainties regarding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy [5] - The German government plans a total expenditure of €520.5 billion for the 2026 federal budget, a 3.5% increase from the previous year, with a focus on infrastructure and digital development [5] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3573.21, down 1.18% [6] - The Hang Seng Index ended at 24773.33, down 1.6% [6] - The onshore RMB was quoted at 7.193, appreciating by 62 points [6]

Economic Overview - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need to enhance macroeconomic policy effectiveness and stimulate internal economic growth [1] - The State Council reiterated the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies to better stimulate consumption potential [1][7] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month below the growth threshold [1][4] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index remained at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [6] - The ex-factory price index increased to 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [6] Business Confidence - The production and business activity expectation index rose to 52.6%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [8] - Large enterprises maintained a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, indicating a mixed outlook across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was reported at 50.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points, but still within the expansion range [10] - The construction business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by seasonal weather conditions, while infrastructure-related activities continued to show robust growth [10] Consumer Behavior - The summer consumption effect began to show, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending intentions [11] - However, the accommodation and catering sectors remained below 50%, suggesting that summer consumption has not yet significantly impacted these areas [11][12] Policy Implications - The Central Political Bureau's meeting highlighted the importance of releasing internal demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [12] - The focus on service consumption is expected to play a crucial role in meeting public needs and driving consumption industry upgrades [12]