Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market maintains a volatile trend, with different sectors showing various performance characteristics. Factors such as policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical issues significantly impact the market. For example, the expected Fed rate cut affects the precious metals market, and geopolitical conflicts influence the oil market [69][70][121]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market lacks catalysts and remains volatile. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and adopt a double - buying option strategy [19][20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment is weak, and the ultra - long end is under pressure. It is advisable to lightly short the T contract on rallies and be cautious about curve - steepening arbitrage [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is obvious supply pressure, and the price of US soybeans continues to decline. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a strategy of selling wide - straddle options [28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are adjusting, and domestic sugar prices are falling. It is suggested to wait and see [30][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The market continues to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the short term [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot is strong, and the futures are in a high - level volatile state. Different trading strategies are proposed for different contracts [37][39]. - **Hogs**: There is still supply pressure, and the price fluctuates slightly. A bearish strategy is recommended [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the futures fluctuate downward. Short - selling at high levels for the 01 contract and waiting and seeing for the 05 contract are advised [44][45][46]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels for far - month contracts [47][48][49]. - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to wait and see [50][51][52]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the price fluctuates mainly. It is expected that US cotton will fluctuate in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton will be slightly strong in the short term [53][54][55]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates in a range, and the cost provides support. It is recommended to maintain a volatile strategy, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - rebar spread [58][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in a bottom - oscillating state. It is advisable to lightly go long on far - month contracts at low levels [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: It should be treated with a bearish view at high levels [63][64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost drives a short - term rebound, but the demand suppresses the rebound height. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold remains stable, and the game for silver intensifies. It is recommended to hold long positions for gold and be cautious with new positions for silver, and buy out - of - the - money call options [69][70][71]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum can be bought on dips, and palladium fluctuates. It is recommended to go long on the platinum - palladium ratio and buy out - of - the - money call options [72][73][75]. - **Copper**: The LME cancelled warrants increase significantly, and the copper price hits a new high. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and pay attention to cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [77][78][79]. - **Alumina**: There is no substantial production cut, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are supportive. It is recommended to be bullish on dips in the medium term [86][87]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moves with the aluminum price. It is recommended to wait and see [88][89][90]. - **Zinc**: It fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in a range. It is advisable to go long lightly on dips [93][94]. - **Nickel**: Supply increases and demand decreases in December. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [96][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to be a short - side allocation [99][100][101]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates in a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [102][105]. - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of state - purchase implementation, and the price may strengthen again. It is recommended to avoid short positions first and try to go long on far - month contracts at low levels [107][108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is under pressure to correct in the medium term. It is recommended to buy after a full correction in the long term [109][110][111]. - **Tin**: The expectation of rate cut and supply concerns drive the price up. It is recommended to maintain a high - level volatile view [112][113][114]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still an expectation of a price increase in January, and the futures are expected to continue to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in the EC2602 contract and consider partial profit - taking for the 2 - 4 cash - and - carry arbitrage [115][116][119]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to wait and see [120][121][122]. - **Asphalt**: The pessimistic sentiment eases, and the price rebounds. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options for the BU2601 contract [123][124][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil continues to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [125][126][128]. - **Natural Gas**: The terminal demand is weak, and the price drops faster. It is recommended to sell call options for TTF and adopt a combination of selling out - of - the - money call options and buying out - of - the - money put options for HH [130][132][134]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is abundant, and PTA has an inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage for PX1, 3 contracts and PTA1, 5 contracts and sell out - of - the - money call and put options [135][136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is an inventory accumulation expectation, and the price drops. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options [138][139]. - **Short - Fiber**: Domestic demand declines seasonally. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [140][141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The demand is expected to weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to adopt a double - selling option strategy [142][143]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The cost lacks support, and the inventory needs to be reduced. It is recommended to short pure benzene and go long on styrene and sell out - of - the - money call options [145][146][148]. - **Propylene**: The price of external propane rises, and propylene fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies and sell call options [151][152]. - **Plastic PP**: The cost increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 01 contracts and hold the SPC L2605&PP2605 contract [153][154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [156][157]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak downward trend. It is recommended to wait and see [158][159][160]. - **Soda Ash**: It fluctuates. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [161][162]. - **Glass**: The cold - repair logic weakens, and the price drops. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of shorting soda ash and going long on glass for the 05 contract [163][164][165]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 5 - 9 cash - and - carry arbitrage [167][169]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates strongly. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium term [170][171][172]. - **Pulp**: The sentiment in the spot market improves. It is recommended to wait and see and take profit on previous long positions gradually [173][174][176]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the potential impact of Sino - Japanese relations on log imports [176][177][178]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remains, and the market lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [183][184]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions. It is recommended to set stop - loss levels for RU01 and NR01 contracts and hold the RU2601 - NR2601 spread [186][187][189]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The oil - end cost decreases. It is recommended to hold short positions for the BR 02 contract and the BR2602 - NR2602 spread [190][191][192].

2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.8%，报 59.11 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.54%， 报 62.79 美元/桶。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.33%报 4234.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.39% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The report indicates that on December 3, all four major index futures contracts for the current month declined, with IF down 0.3%, IH down 0.35%, IC down 0.41%, and IM down 0.58%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded on this trading day, showing an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of all four major index futures also increased. The index futures have certain support at the lower level [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Data Summary Index Futures Price and Trading Volume - The closing prices of the four major spot indexes all declined, with the CSI 300 down 0.51%, the SSE 50 down 0.52%, the CSI 500 down 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.89%. Among the index futures contracts, the December 2025 contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, with decreases of 0.3%, 0.35%, 0.41%, and 0.58% respectively [1]. - The total trading volume of IF increased by 16,059 lots, IH by 3,694 lots, IC by 18,013 lots, and IM by 37,370 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 10,409 lots, IH by 3,910 lots, IC by 10,653 lots, and IM by 23,105 lots [2]. Index Futures Basis - The basis of different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM is different, and the basis generally shows a negative value, indicating that the futures price is lower than the spot price [1]. Top 20 Member Positions - In the top 20 member positions of index futures, the long - and short - position changes of different contracts vary. For example, in the IF2512 contract, the long - position increase is 3,679, and the short - position increase is 3,373 [5]. Group 3: Market Driving Factors Domestic Economic Data - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with old ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade import and export volume was 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit was 766.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 269.39 billion yuan [6]. Policy and International Relations - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic cycle. The US President Trump signed a law on the US - Taiwan relationship, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded, emphasizing the one - China principle [7]. International Economic Data - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [6]. Group 4: Other Information Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.51% at 3,878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.12%. The trading volume of A - shares was 1.68 trillion yuan, up from 1.61 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum still needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The valuation of domestic assets is at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are also beneficial to precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to rise, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [10]. - In the medium term, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak, but there may be a short - term rebound. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities during the rebound [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and there may be resistance to its price increase. Investors can pay attention to high - level short - position opportunities [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures may encounter resistance when rebounding. Investors can pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities [17]. - The overall oversupply pressure of ferroalloys has weakened. After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. - The US - Russia talks send positive signals, which is negative for crude oil prices, but OPEC+ suspending production increase in the first quarter of next year gives market confidence. The crude oil main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22]. - The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount is positive for fuel oil prices, while the constructive results of the US - Russia negotiation are negative. The fuel oil main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26]. - The domestic polypropylene downstream industries are obviously differentiated. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities for polyolefins [28]. - The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate within a wide range with limited downward space. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [32]. - The current PVC supply exceeds demand, and the price may not have much room to fall further. Investors should pay attention to supply - side changes [34]. - The price of urea is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37]. - In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust. Investors should control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [39]. - In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - In the short term, ethylene glycol may face pressure. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate following costs. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - In the future, bottle - grade polyester chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost side. Investors should control risks [44]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of mines [45]. - Copper prices are expected to be strong, but investors should be aware of the callback risk after hitting a new high [47]. - In the short term, the price of electrolytic aluminum is in an adjustment state, while alumina prices are under pressure. Investors should pay attention to substantial production - cut trends [49]. - Zinc prices are likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate [54]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [60]. - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider a long - biased approach [64]. - The upward space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and are expected to fluctuate [69]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [71]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, investors can consider holding the remaining short positions [74]. - For eggs, investors should consider temporary observation [77]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see and wait for the further release of supply pressure after transportation resumes. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed up, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.26% at 113.610 yuan, the 10 - year main contract up 0.06% at 108.040 yuan, the 5 - year main contract up 0.07% at 105.850 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.03% at 102.420 yuan [5]. - The central bank conducted 793 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 3rd, with an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 2133 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1340 billion yuan [5]. - China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The new order index continued to grow, and the new export order improved significantly [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contract of CSI 300 index futures (IF) was down 0.30%, the main contract of SSE 50 index futures (IH) was down 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 index futures (IC) was down 0.41%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 index futures (IM) was down 0.58% [8]. - From January to November this year, the replacement of consumer goods with new ones drove the sales of related goods to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting more than 360 million people [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 956.7, with a decline of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 955.66; the closing price of the silver main contract was 13,582, with an increase of 1.18%, and the night - session closing price was 13608 [10]. - The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000 people, with an expected increase of 10,000 people [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3000 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3170 - 3300 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coils was between 3280 - 3300 yuan/ton [12]. - In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side still has over - capacity, and the rebar inventory is significantly higher than last year [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The port spot price of PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 685 yuan/ton [14]. - Since October, the daily output of molten iron in the country has been declining, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures encountered resistance when rebounding. The impact of safety inspections on coking coal production is weakening, and the supply is increasing. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening, and the auction price of coking coal has decreased [16][17]. - After the fourth increase in the spot purchase price of coke, the profit of coking enterprises has improved, and the supply is stable. However, the demand from steel mills may weaken due to the compression of blast furnace profits [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon closed down 0.03% at 5724 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed down 0.11% at 5446 yuan/ton [19]. - In the week of November 28th, the shipment volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased to 56,900 tons, the supply of Australian ore increased since June, and the port manganese ore inventory increased slightly to 4.38 million tons [19]. - The production of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased by 2100 tons and 1100 tons respectively last week, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak [19]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The US envoy's negotiation with Russia was constructive [21]. - The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased for the third consecutive week as of November 21st [21]. - OPEC+ may maintain the oil production level at the Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity [21]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil hit a low and then rebounded, hitting a new low during the session. The market is concerned about the large - scale supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East [24]. - The Singapore fuel oil inventory is at a high level, and the inflow of fuel oil from outside Asia will increase [24]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer of the Hangzhou PP market showed some high - price loosening, and the high - price transactions were difficult to expand. The price of the Yuyao LLDPE market was adjusted by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [28]. - The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83%. The demand in the packaging industry decreased after the e - commerce festival, while the operating rates of the PP non - woven fabric and PP pipe industries increased [28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.49%. The price in Shandong remained stable at 11,600 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [30]. - The short - term supply shortage pushed up the price. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber will fluctuate widely this week, and the downward space is limited [30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber fell 0.65%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.86%. The Shanghai spot price was adjusted down to around 14,900 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [32]. - It is expected that the natural rubber market will fluctuate within a range in the short term. The high price of overseas raw materials supports the rubber price, the operating rate of tire enterprises has rebounded significantly, and the inventory shows differentiation [32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 0.44%, the spot price remained stable, and the basis remained stable [34]. - In November 2025, the estimated PVC output was 2.0788 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year increase of 5.60%. The demand is seasonally weakening, and the industry inventory is expected to reach 1.53 million tons [34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose 0.59%. The price in Shandong Linyi increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [37]. - The daily supply of urea is around 200,000 tons, which restricts the upward space of prices. The new round of export quotas and the concentrated procurement in the Northeast region boost the market sentiment [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX fell 0.49%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 280 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit remained stable. The PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton [39]. - The PX operating rate was 88.3%, a slight month - on - month decline. Zhejiang Petrochemical has maintenance plans for CDU and reforming in January 2026, and PX production may decrease [39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 fell 0.46%. The PTA operating rate was adjusted to 73.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% [40]. - The polyester operating rate was 91.5%, and the long - filament operating rate increased moderately. The PTA processing fee was adjusted to around 170 yuan/ton [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 1.55%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 73.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.46% [41]. - The inventory in the main ports of East China was about 753,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from December 1st to 7th is about 161,000 tons [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber fell 0.29%. The short - fiber operating rate rose to around 97.5% [42]. - The processing fee of short - fiber was adjusted to around 1020 yuan/ton, and the demand side changed little [43]. Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle - grade polyester chips fell 0.59%. The processing fee was adjusted to around 400 yuan/ton [44]. - The operating rate of bottle - grade polyester chip factories dropped to 72.2%. The export of bottle - grade polyester chips increased slightly, with a total export volume of 5.333 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 14% [44]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.82% to 93,660 yuan/ton. There was news of mine resumption this year, which alleviated the shortage expectation [45]. - The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved [45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 90,760 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.01% [46]. - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected and the previous value, and the ADP employment showed negative growth [47]. - The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, the processing fee of copper concentrate is in a deep negative range, and the demand for refined copper is affected by high prices and scrap copper substitution [47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.53%, and the main contract of alumina closed at 2632 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% [49]. - The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the arrival of imported ore from Guinea has increased. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum smelting is considerable but the production increase space is limited [49]. - The demand for aluminum has entered the traditional off - season, and the high price suppresses the downstream procurement willingness [49]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% [52]. - The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the processing fee is decreasing, and the demand has entered the traditional off - season, but there is still some rigid demand at the end of the year [52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 17,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% [54]. - The supply shortage of domestic lead concentrate has been slightly alleviated, and the supply is expected to increase. The battery market is in the off - season,

生产行业：1）据悉，欧盟目前正考虑为包括汽车在内的特定商品，设定高达70%的"欧洲制造"目标，此举旨在优 先采购本土商品，以减少欧盟在清洁技术及部分重工业领域对他国的依赖。根据欧盟拟议的新规，具有可能构成 安全风险的太阳能逆变器产业，其主要部件或将必须在欧洲制造。一位欧盟官员表示，70%的采购比例最终可能下 调，且关于本土化内容规则的谈判进展料将艰难。 宏观日报 | 2025-12-04 地产下游销售持续回暖 中观事件总览 服务行业：1）美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，为2023年3月以来最低水平，预估为增加5000人，前值为增加 4.2万人。美国ADP就业报告公布后，现货黄金小幅上涨，美元指数延续跌势，美国两年期国债收益率进一步下跌。 2）12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进行第十七次 专题学习。李强在听取讲解和交流发言后指出，展望"十五五"时期，新型城镇化发展空间仍然很大。要从中国式 现代化全局的高度把握新型城镇化的使命任务，始终把这项工作摆在战略位置抓实抓好，加快补齐短板弱项，努 力实现人的全面发展、城市品质提升和产业聚集升级的互动并进。 数 ...

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a weak consolidation with a continued pullback, as the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3878 points, down 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12955.25 points, down 0.78% [1][5][10] - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, 6 saw an increase, with transportation, non-ferrous metals, and coal leading the gains, while media, computer, and real estate sectors faced significant declines [1][5][10] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 168.36 billion yuan, slightly up from the previous day [1][5][10] Overseas Market Overview - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.86%, the S&P 500 up by 0.3%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 0.17% [2][5] - Notable performers included UnitedHealth Group, which rose over 4%, and Goldman Sachs, which increased by more than 2% [2][5] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with Canadian Solar dropping over 9% and NIO falling nearly 5% [2][5] Key News Highlights - Zhejiang Province is supporting the establishment of a low-altitude industry "pilot zone" and a low-altitude economy "first flight zone" [12][13] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to October, the total service trade import and export volume increased by 7.5% year-on-year, reaching 65,844.3 billion yuan [14] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" for central enterprises [16] - The Zhuque-3 reusable launch vehicle successfully completed its mission, although a recovery test for one of its stages failed [18] - The US reported a significant drop in private sector jobs in November, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [19]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in November 2025 was 49.2%, slightly up from 49.0% in the previous month but down from 50.3% in the same period last year [1] - Non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in November 2025 was 49.5%, down from 50.1% in the previous month and 50.0% in the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 1412.0 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in October 2025 increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month but slightly down from 0.3% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in October 2025 decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, a smaller decline compared to -2.3% in the previous month and -2.9% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China's logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with the business volume index also rising [2] - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from 51.8 in the previous month; the S&P services PMI was 52.1, down from 52.6 in the previous month. New order and new export order indices showed positive trends [2] - On December 3, 37 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 32 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and 棉纱 had the largest basis, while 丁二烯橡胶, 沪锡, and 苹果 had the smallest [2] - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations, leading to a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point Fed rate cut in December [3] - The US SEC approved CME to register a new clearing institution, which is expected to start operating by mid - 2026 to help the market comply with new regulations on Treasury and repo transactions [3] 2.2 Metals - On December 3, LME copper prices hit a record high, and the delivery order had the largest single - day increase since 2013. Shanghai copper futures also reached a new high [4] - On December 3, the price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate dropped by 170 yuan to 94,300 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1470 yuan in the past 5 days and 19,900 yuan in the past 30 days. The price of 56.5% battery - grade coarse - particle domestic lithium hydroxide remained unchanged at 82,600 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 1270 yuan in the past 5 days and 9370 yuan in the past 30 days [4] - Glencore expects to reach the lower limit of its initial copper production guidance of 850,000 - 910,000 tons by 2025, but the production is uneven. The initial copper production guidance for 2026 is lowered from 93,000 tons to 84,000 tons (mid - point of the range). It aims to produce about 1.6 million tons by 2035 and exceed 1 million tons annually by the end of 2028 [5] - Glencore expects the Alumbrera mine to produce about 75,000 tons of copper in four years and about 317,000 ounces of gold during the same period. The restart capital expenditure of the Alumbrera mine is expected to be 230 million Canadian dollars. The Antamina mine's zinc production is expected to decline in fiscal year 2026 and then stabilize at about 720,000 tons per year from 2026 - 2029. The thermal coal production is expected to remain stable from 2026 - 2029 [5] - JPMorgan expects copper price increases to drive aluminum prices up to $3000 per ton in the first half of 2026. It maintains a long - term bullish view on gold, expecting the price to reach $5000 per ounce by 2026. Supply disruptions and inventory issues may push copper prices to $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [6] - Goldman Sachs raised its average price forecast for LME copper in the first half of 2026 from $10,415 to $10,710 and expects LME aluminum prices to fall to $2350 per ton in Q4 2026 [6] - The ECB asked the Italian government to re - examine its proposal to declare the country's gold reserves as the property of the Italian people, which may lead to the sale of some gold reserves. The Italian central bank holds 2452 tons of gold, the world's third - largest gold reserve [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Glencore expects its thermal coal production to remain stable from 2026 - 2029 [8] - Vale updated its production forecast, expecting iron ore production in 2026 to be between 335 million and 345 million tons, lower than the previous range of 340 million - 360 million tons [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The EU reached an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [9] - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels last week, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels [10] - UBS predicts that Brent crude oil prices will be around $65 per barrel in mid - 2026 and $67 per barrel at the end of 2026 [10] - JPMorgan expects Brent crude oil prices to further decline, with an average price of $58 per barrel in 2026 [10] - Russia's state oil and gas sales budget revenue in November was 530.9 billion rubles, down from 888.6 billion rubles in October [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launched a winter crop seed supervision and inspection across the country, focusing on key crops and reserve seeds, and cracking down on illegal activities [12] - In November, Yunnan's pig prices hit a 43 - month low at 13.15 yuan/kg [12] - As of November 28, the inventory of imported soybeans at major domestic oil mills was 7 million tons, up 1.53 million tons year - on - year and 2.33 million tons higher than the three - year average. The soybean meal inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 340,000 tons year - on - year and 540,000 tons higher than the three - year average [12] - China has become Brazil's largest fertilizer supplier, with exports from January to October reaching 9.76 million tons, accounting for about 25% of Brazil's total fertilizer imports [13] - At least 6 ships are loading soybeans at the Gulfport port in the Gulf of Mexico, with a total loading capacity of at least 320,000 tons, all destined for China. A ship of soybeans set sail last weekend, the first such shipment since May [13] - Brazil may become the world's third - largest pork exporter in 2025 [13] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On December 3, the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed rate of 1.40%. With 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 134 billion yuan [15] 3.2 Key News - China's S&P composite PMI in November was 51.2, down from 51.8 in the previous month; the S&P services PMI was 52.1, down from 52.6 in the previous month. New order and new export order indices showed positive trends [16] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of new - type urbanization in expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. He also mentioned measures such as urban renewal and housing construction [16] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Plan (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai's leading role and promote the integration of urban agglomerations [16] - From January to November, consumer goods trade - in programs drove related product sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a 7.5% year - on - year increase, and the service trade deficit decreased by 26.939 billion yuan [17] - In November, the retail sales of passenger cars in China were 2.263 million units, a 7% year - on - year decrease. The retail sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.354 million units, a 7% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [17] - China's logistics industry prosperity index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed, while industrial manufacturing and consumer logistics demand were stable [17] - The Ministry of Finance will issue 7 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on December 10 [17] - The Shanghai branch of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a green foreign debt business pilot, optimizing cross - border financing for non - financial enterprises in green and low - carbon industries [18] - ICBC is selling a 3 - year personal large - denomination certificate of deposit with a minimum deposit of 1 million yuan and an annual interest rate of 1.55%. The 3 - year fixed - deposit product has a maximum annual interest rate of 1.55% with a minimum deposit of 50 yuan [18] - Bank of Communications currently has no large - denomination certificates of deposit for sale on its mobile app, except for transferable ones. It only offers special large - denomination certificates of deposit to customers in some regions, mostly with a term of one year or less [19] - Analysts generally believe that the convertible bond market in 2026 will have solid valuation support, and investors can focus on investment opportunities in technology - growth sectors [19] - The EU reached an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [9] - The EIA reported that US crude oil inventories increased by 574,000 barrels last week, contrary to the expected decrease of 2 million barrels [10] - UBS predicts that Brent crude oil prices will be around $65 per barrel in mid - 2026 and $67 per barrel at the end of 2026 [10] - JPMorgan expects Brent crude oil prices to further decline, with an average price of $58 per barrel in 2026 [10] - Russia's state oil and gas sales budget revenue in November was 530.9 billion rubles, down from 888.6 billion rubles in October [10] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market fluctuated narrowly, with most interest - rate bond yields rising, especially the 30 - year bonds. Treasury bond futures mostly rose, except for the 30 - year contract, which fell 0.26%. Bank - to - bank market liquidity was stable and loose [23] - In the exchange bond market, Vanke bonds generally slowed their decline. The Wande real - estate bond 30 index rose 0.41%, and the Wande high - yield urban investment bond index rose 0.01% [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.21% at 478.57 points, with a trading volume of 52.526 billion yuan. The Wande Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index fell 0.23% to 232.09 points [25] - Most money - market interest rates declined. Shibor short - term rates mostly fell, and bank - to - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds mostly remained stable [25] - The winning bid yields of Agricultural Development Bank's 1.074 - year and 10 - year financial bonds were 1.4539% and 1.9504% respectively. The weighted winning bid yields of the Ministry of Finance's 63 - day and 91 - day treasury bonds were 1.2891% and 1.3280% respectively [26] - Most European bond yields fell, and US bond yields also declined across the board [27] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.0661 against the US dollar, up 51 points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.0754, up 40 points from the previous trading day [28] - In late New York trading, the US dollar index fell 0.46% to 98.87, and most non - US currencies rose [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that there is basically no liquidity gap in December, and the risk of the bond market from the capital side is limited. The bond - market interest rate tends to decline at the end of the year, but the space for the year - end market may be limited [29] - Yangtze River Fixed - Income notes that the CSI Convertible Bond Index usually shows a "weak before, strong after" pattern around the New Year. Last week, convertible bonds were generally weak [29] - Western Fixed - Income predicts that the bond market in 2026 will maintain a low - volatility, narrow - range oscillation pattern, with the after - tax interest - rate center of 10 - year treasury bonds between 1.7% - 1.9% [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - The A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% to 3878 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%. The trading volume was 1.68 trillion yuan. AI application and lithium - battery sectors led the decline, while the coal and super - hard material sectors rose [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 1.28% at 25,760.73 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.58%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.68%. Southbound funds net - bought nearly HK$2.3 billion, and Alibaba was continuously added for 15 days, with a cumulative net - purchase of over HK$28.6 billion [32] - FTSE Russell announced a quarterly adjustment to the FTSE China Index series, effective after the close on December 19. The FTSE China A50 Index will include Luoyang Molybdenum and Sungrow Power, and remove Jiangsu Bank and SF Holding [33] - Most newly established active equity funds since the fourth quarter have shown signs of building positions. Although some funds have a return rate of over 10%, most build positions cautiously due to market fluctuations and year - end style switching. The industry consensus is that the AI application industry is expected to make substantial breakthroughs in 2026 [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, the trend of some futures varieties is judged, including trend short, oscillating with a downward bias, oscillating, oscillating with an upward bias, and trend long [2]. - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of some futures varieties are divided into bearish, oscillating, and bullish [7]. - A series of macro - economic and policy news are reported, such as the successful maiden flight of China's Zhuque - 3 reusable launch vehicle, the significant decline in the US "small non - farm" data in November, and the adjustment of China's stock market rating by JPMorgan [9][10]. - For different futures sectors, specific investment strategies and market outlooks are provided, such as the stock index futures with an oscillating strategy and the bond futures with a wide - range oscillating trend [13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's independently developed reusable launch vehicle Zhuque - 3 had a successful maiden flight, marking a new milestone in China's commercial space industry [9]. - The US November "small non - farm" data showed a significant decline, with private enterprises reducing 32,000 jobs, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is nearly 90% [9]. - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand and promoting industrial upgrading [9]. - JPMorgan upgraded its rating of the Chinese stock market from "neutral" to "overweight" and expected the MSCI China Index to have a 19% upside potential in the base case [10]. 3.2 Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The strategy is to adopt an oscillating approach and wait and see. The A - share market declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%. The market turnover was 1.68 trillion yuan. The AI application and lithium - battery sectors led the decline, while the coal and pharmaceutical commerce sectors were active. The weak economic data and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut are important factors affecting the market [13]. Bond Futures - The bond market may continue to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve. The recent decline in the bond market is mainly affected by the redemption of public bond funds, and the 10 - year medium - short - duration bonds can be considered for buying on dips, while the ultra - long - duration bonds should be treated with caution [14]. 3.3 Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - From a policy perspective, attention should be paid to the spirit of the Politburo meeting at the beginning of December and the Central Economic Work Conference in the middle of the month. Fundamentally, the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is relatively good. The supply side may see a decline in iron - water production, and the inventory is still at a high level compared with last year. The steel price is likely to remain weak in the medium - term. In the short term, the steel and ore markets will oscillate, and in the long - term, a short - selling approach on rallies is recommended [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production and safety supervision of coal mines and the change in downstream iron - water production. The supply of coking coal may be restricted by safety supervision at the end of the year, but in the short term, the supply may increase, and the weak demand for steel and the potential negative feedback risk will restrict the price [18]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, due to the uncertainty of cost factors and the discount in the futures price, if the price falls back to the previous low, the daily output may decline. For silicomanganese, the short - term strength of the futures price is due to the price support of manganese ore, but the supply of manganese ore may increase, and the long - term over - supply situation is the main logic. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese on rallies, and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese [20]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see. For glass, it can be tried to go long on dips in the short term and exit flexibly when the sentiment changes. The supply of soda ash may be affected by production reduction and new capacity, and the supply of glass may be adjusted due to cold - repair expectations [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Shanghai Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has decreased, and the export window has been opened. The zinc price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can short on rallies. The price is affected by the Fed's policy and international geopolitics, and the decline in domestic processing fees supports the price [23]. Shanghai Lead - The social inventory of lead has decreased to a one - month low. The supply of lead is tight in some regions, and the demand from battery enterprises is improving. It is recommended to hold short positions with caution [23]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price will oscillate widely. The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, but the long - term demand for lithium is still good, which supports the price [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon will continue to oscillate, with limited downward adjustment space. Polysilicon will also oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and operate cautiously [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - The supply pressure is large in the short term, and the demand has not yet recovered. The high cost supports the Zhengzhou cotton to oscillate and rebound. The USDA's supply and demand report is bearish, and the domestic cotton supply is abundant, while the demand is weak [29][30]. Sugar - The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is still bearish. The new - sugar listing pressure weighs on the price, and the cost supports the price to limit the decline. It is recommended to wait and see or short in the short term [31]. Eggs - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate. The 01 contract can consider stopping losses on short positions and waiting and seeing. The 02 and 03 contracts may be under pressure in the short term, and the far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of a decline in inventory but are at a relatively high valuation, so it is recommended to wait and see [33][34]. Apples - The price is expected to oscillate strongly. The apple storage is almost finished, and the出库 has started. The spot price is stable, but the sales are affected by the increase in the supply of citrus fruits [35]. Corn - Attention should be paid to the port collection situation and the upper pressure on the futures price. The short - term 01 contract may maintain a high - level oscillation, and the far - month contracts may be weaker [35][36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and the futures price oscillates [37]. Pigs - In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is weak. The spot price oscillates weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions in the near - month contracts and pay attention to risk control [37][38]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The EIA inventory has increased, and the market has returned to the fundamental analysis. The US sanctions on Russian oil exports have changed the supply expectation, but the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict may lead to an oversupply situation. The oil price is in a long - term downward trend, and the short - term rebound space is limited [40]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is affected by geopolitics and the macro - economy. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It will follow the oil price fluctuations [41]. Plastics - Polyolefins have a large supply pressure and weak demand, so they will oscillate weakly. The upstream production losses may provide some support, and it is recommended for industrial customers to hedge in time [44]. Rubber - The ru - nr spread may weaken from mid - December to January. The short - term trend is weakening, and short - selling opportunities can be considered on rallies [45]. Synthetic Rubber - After the market sentiment subsides, it will oscillate. If there is a rebound, short positions can be tried with a stop - loss [46]. Methanol - The near - month contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, and the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate bullishly. If the inventory is reduced smoothly, a slightly bullish configuration can be considered [47]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda continues to decline, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious improvement. It is recommended to adopt a short - term oscillating strategy and avoid going long in the near - month contracts [48]. Asphalt - The price fluctuation of asphalt is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - demand structure of the polyester industry chain is generally stable, and the price is driven by cost. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short PF and the reverse spread of ethylene glycol [50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG price has fallen from a high level. Although it is relatively strong, the price increase is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to short on rallies [51]. Pulp - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, take profits on long positions when the delivery profit is obvious, or short the delivery profit by buying spot and selling futures [52]. Logs - The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the spot price has decreased. The inventory is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be under pressure [54]. Urea - The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures market is sensitive to the short - term spot trading sentiment. The futures price is expected to move up this week [54].

原油： sc夜盘上涨0.36%。市场对乌克兰和平进程能否重启抱有希望，同时也存在怀疑态度。乌克兰总统泽连斯 基称，美国与乌克兰代表团将于本周会面，商讨在日内瓦会谈中提出的方案，以期实现和平并为乌克兰提供安全 保障。国际能源署评估10月份欧佩克有配额的9国原油日供应量为2377万桶，比修正过的9月份日供应量减少了18 万桶，比其目标日产量高72万桶。贝克休斯公布的数据显示，截止11月26日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量407 座，比前周减少12座；为2021年9月份以来最低，比去年同期减少70座。整体向下趋势难改。 首席点评： 商品驱动分化 国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做强国内大循环的重要载体。要因 地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划。科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。美国 11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储 降息预期进一步升温。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降 幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。据商务部，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及 超3.6亿人次。 重点品种： 原油，铜 ...