Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，全天在高位横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.23%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.06%，5 年期 TF2509 上 | | | | | 涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 1640 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 2149 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日实现净回笼 ...

晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, stated that the volatility in the bond market in April is not fundamentally related to concerns about stability [1] Group 1 - The bond market experienced fluctuations in April, but these were not linked to stability issues [1] - Yellen emphasized that the current market conditions should not be interpreted as a sign of underlying economic instability [1] - The Treasury Department is closely monitoring the situation to ensure market stability [1]

5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨，6个行业下跌。环 保、医药生物、国防军工、银行和纺织服饰板块的涨幅均超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the recent surge in funds into bond funds has led to many fund companies implementing purchase limits to maintain stable operations and protect existing investors' interests [1][2][3] - A total of 186 bond funds from various companies, including China Asset Management and Orient Fund, have announced limits on large purchases since June 1, 2023 [1][2] - The limits vary significantly, with some funds setting thresholds as low as 1,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan for single purchases, which may impact ordinary investors [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield has shown fluctuations, dropping to approximately 1.65% as of June 11, 2023, after peaking at 1.88% in mid-March [4][5] - Despite a strong bond market last year, the overall scale of bond funds decreased by about 286.3 billion yuan to approximately 6.56 trillion yuan by the end of April 2023 [4] - Institutions are optimistic about the short-term outlook for the bond market but remain cautious in the long term, citing various economic indicators and uncertainties in the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government aims to encourage domestic investors to increase their holdings of Japanese government bonds [1] Group 1 - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, emphasizes the government's position on promoting the increase of domestic investors' holdings in government bonds [1]

转债市场日度跟踪 20250610 市场概况：今日转债跟随正股下跌，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 0.28%、上证综指环比下降 0.44%、深证成 指环比下降 0.86%、创业板指环比下降 1.17%、上证 50 指数环比下降 0.39%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 0.92%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 0.71%、大盘价值环比下降 0.07%、中盘成长环比下降 0.70%、中盘价值环比下降 0.09%、小盘成长环比 下降 1.01%、小盘价值环比下降 0.34%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 741.00 亿元，环比 增长 6.52%；万得全 A 总成交额为 14514.37 亿元，环比增长 10.57%；沪深两 市主力净流出 359.72 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.10bp 至 1.66%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.95 元，环比昨日下降 0.31%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 162.79 元，环比 上升 0.01%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 111.37 元，环比下降 0.20%；平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The simultaneous occurrence of the $39 billion 10-year U.S. Treasury auction and the critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to create significant market volatility, breaking the recent calm in the U.S. Treasury market [1][4][6] Group 1: CPI Data Impact - The upcoming CPI report for May is a key indicator of U.S. inflation, directly influencing consumer living costs, business production costs, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][5] - If the CPI data exceeds market expectations, it may lead to increased inflation pressure, raising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, which could result in falling bond prices and rising yields [5] - Conversely, if the CPI data is below expectations, it may ease inflation pressure, enhancing the appeal of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset, leading to rising bond prices and falling yields [5] Group 2: Treasury Auction Dynamics - The outcome of the 10-year Treasury auction will reflect market demand for U.S. Treasuries, influencing yields and the overall bond market [3][4] - A strong auction demand, indicated by a high bid-to-cover ratio, would suggest high market confidence in U.S. Treasuries, potentially stabilizing yields [5] - Conversely, weak auction results, such as a low bid-to-cover ratio or even a failed auction, could lead to a significant rise in yields and spread panic in the market [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of the CPI report and the Treasury auction is likely to signal the end of the recent period of calm in the U.S. Treasury market, prompting investors and financial institutions to reassess their strategies [4][6] - Global investors, financial institutions, and policymakers need to closely monitor these events, as they will influence future market dynamics and economic policies [6]

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) is experiencing active trading and positive net inflows, indicating strong market interest despite a stable policy environment and limited expectations for short-term interest rate changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 11, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has increased by 0.17%, with the latest price at 124.07 yuan [1]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 18.77 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 10.24%, reflecting active market participation [1]. - The current size of the 30-year Treasury ETF is 182.87 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The latest net inflow for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 1.71 billion yuan, with 13 out of the last 21 trading days showing net inflows totaling 22.69 billion yuan, averaging 1.08 billion yuan per day [1]. Group 3: Economic Context - Current market conditions are characterized as a policy window period with a calm domestic news environment, and the implied expectations for interest rate cuts are low [1]. - Recent PMI data suggests that the economic fundamentals have not yet reached a turning point, and trade outlook remains uncertain, providing support for the bond market [1]. - Internationally, comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate that the path to interest rate cuts may not be smooth, with rates expected to remain elevated for an extended period [1]. Group 4: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, serving as a benchmark for this category of bonds [2]. - The ETF is considered a valuable tool for portfolio management, offering low entry barriers for individual investors and high trading efficiency with T+0 transactions [2]. - Multiple market makers provide liquidity, ensuring that trades can be executed promptly without a lack of counterparties [2].

Core Insights - The launch of the "Technology Board" in the bond market on May 7 has generated significant interest, with over 190 technology innovation bonds issued by June 6, totaling approximately 374.5 billion yuan [1][2] - The market consensus is that the scale of the "Technology Board" will continue to expand, with expectations for more small and medium-sized private technology enterprises to enter the market [1][4] - The introduction of innovative bond types and risk-sharing mechanisms is essential to attract long-term capital and support the financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] Market Overview - As of June 6, the total issuance includes 2.958 billion yuan from the interbank market and approximately 787 million yuan from the exchange market [1] - There are 32 technology innovation bonds currently in the issuance process, with a proposed issuance scale of 475.5 million yuan [1] - The average coupon rate for technology innovation bonds is 1.95%, with an average maturity of 3.3 years, indicating a trend towards longer-term financing [5][6] Issuer Diversity - The "Technology Board" features a diverse range of issuers, including financial institutions, technology companies, private equity, and venture capital firms, creating a comprehensive financing chain for technology innovation [2][7] - Financial institutions have played a significant role, accounting for approximately 60% of the total issuance, with a focus on supporting private technology enterprises [7][8] Innovation in Bond Products - The market has introduced various innovative bond products, such as intellectual property pledge bonds and green bonds, to meet the diverse financing needs of technology enterprises [2][3] - The flexibility in setting bond terms, including options for equity conversion and interest rate linkage to project performance, enhances the attractiveness of these bonds [3][4] Future Expectations - There is a strong expectation for increased participation from private technology enterprises in the bond market, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [8][9] - The ongoing development of the "Technology Board" is anticipated to improve market liquidity and pricing efficiency, providing robust financial support for national technology innovation strategies [10]