Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for logs has entered the off - season, and the current winter shipments from New Zealand are expected to decrease seasonally. The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 07 contract is about to enter the delivery month for the first delivery. Recently, the futures market has mainly traded based on the delivery cost logic. With the support of delivery costs, the valuation of the 07 contract still has room for a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate in reverse spreads or short sell far - month contracts on rallies [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Contracts**: On June 19, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2507 contract closed at 798 yuan/m³, up 2.5 yuan/m³ (0.31%) from the previous day; the log 2509 contract was at 794 yuan/m³, down 1 yuan/m³ (- 0.13%); the log 2511 contract was at 791.5 yuan/m³, down 5 yuan/m³ (- 0.63%) [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The 7 - 9 spread was 4 yuan/m³, up 3.5 yuan/m³; the 9 - 11 spread was 2.5 yuan/m³, up 4 yuan/m³; the 7 - 11 spread was 6.5 yuan/m³, up 7.5 yuan/m³. The 07 contract basis was - 48 yuan/m³, down 2.5 yuan/m³; the 09 contract basis was - 44 yuan/m³, up 1 yuan/m³; the 11 contract basis was - 41.5 yuan/m³, up 5 yuan/m³ [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 19 compared with the previous day, with a 0% change. The ex - factory prices of imported logs in the international market also remained stable [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.193 yuan on June 19, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day. The import theoretical cost was 778.59 yuan, up 0.56 yuan [2]. 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In May, the port freight volume was 195.5 million m³, up 22.8 million m³ (13.20%) from April. The number of departing ships was 58, down 5 (- 7.94%) from the previous month [2]. - **Weekly Inventory**: As of June 13, the total inventory of coniferous logs in major Chinese ports was 345 million m³, up 6 million m³ (1.77%) from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 201 million m³, up 9.5 million m³ (4.96%), and the inventory in Jiangsu was 113.31 million m³, up 1.3 million m³ (1.19%) [3]. 3.3 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of June 13, the average daily log出库 volume in China was 5.98 million m³, down 0.33 million m³ (- 5%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 3.3 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (- 2%), and in Jiangsu, it was 1.9 million m³, down 0.38 million m³ (- 17%) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical factors causing an upward trend in crude oil prices, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually rising. Producers' inventory generally decreases, while traders' inventory generally increases. The supply price may remain firm under the influence of cost factors, but the downstream end shows obvious resistance to high prices, and it is expected that the production - sales pressure will be difficult to ease. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. Enterprises' production scheduling gradually returned to normal levels. Some enterprises moderately increased production to meet order demands, while a few enterprises suspended production due to power plant maintenance. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain basically stable. The production scheduling of all - steel tire enterprises is temporarily stable, and the resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises undergoing maintenance has a certain pulling effect on the overall capacity utilization rate. The r2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,400 - 11,900 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,770 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract was 15,134, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,643. The 7 - 8 spread of synthetic rubber was 140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses was 800 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,370 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. [2] - Brent crude oil was 76.7 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan was 633.13 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,070 US dollars/ton, with no change. WTI crude oil was 75.14 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.3 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,500 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.77 million tons/week, with no change; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.96 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 21,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,000 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 45.12%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 139,400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 17,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.03%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 576 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 306 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 27,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 650 tons; the trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,210 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 530 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 77.98%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.12 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 61.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.24 million. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.74 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.28 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of June 19, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%. [2] - As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.52 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.45 percentage points. [2] - In May 2025, the sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 83,000 (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 5% compared with April and a year - on - year increase of about 6% compared with 78,200 in the same period last year. From January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market in China was about 435,500, a year - on - year increase of about 1%. [2]

Group 1: Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper fluctuated weakly, down 0.2% to $9,650.5/ton; SHFE copper rose 0.01% to 78,610 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import maintained a large loss. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% in June, the fourth time this year. Fed Chair Powell said the US economy is stable, tariffs may push up prices, and inflation may rise in the coming months. Inventory: LME down 200 tons to 107,350 tons; Comex up 1,400 tons to 181,400 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts down 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons; BC copper warehouse receipts down 582 tons to 4,162 tons. Demand slowed in the off - season. The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict may increase concerns about the global economy. The market is in a short - term shock pattern, with a focus on the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [1]. Aluminum - Alumina fluctuated strongly. AO2509 closed at 2,910 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, with an open interest increase of 4,326 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum also fluctuated strongly. AL2507 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, with an open interest decrease of 11,246 lots to 187,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also showed a strong trend. AD2511 closed at 19,810 yuan/ton, up 0.76%, with an open interest increase of 133 lots to 9,257 lots. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,205 yuan/ton. The aluminum ingot spot premium was 190 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina plants continued to resume production. The electrolytic aluminum demand structure was further differentiated. The rod - ingot inventory trends were different, and the low domestic and foreign warehouse receipts supported the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the AD - AL spread convergence [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.07% to $15,095/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.6% to 119,050 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons to 204,120 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons to 22,139 tons. The LME 0 - 3 months premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium rose 150 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton. Indonesia plans to sanction IMIP for environmental violations. The nickel ore price remained strong. Stainless steel production was cut in China and Indonesia, but the weekly inventory was still increasing. In the short - term, focus on nickel ore premium and primary nickel inventory; in the medium - term, the fundamentals may be bearish due to demand constraints [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Copper - On June 18, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,810 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan from the previous day, and the premium dropped 50 yuan. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 72,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 200 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.3 million tons [4]. Aluminum - On June 18, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the Nanhai price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan. The spot premium was 190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. LME inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,774 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, and the alumina inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons [5]. Nickel - On June 18, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate remained unchanged at 120,925 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 816 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 77 tons, and the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. Zinc - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 21,995 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The SMM 0 spot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan. The domestic spot premium average was 240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The上期所 inventory increased by 793 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 625 tons [6]. Tin - On June 18, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 263,440 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540/ton, down 2.1%. The SMM spot price was 264,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The上期所 inventory decreased by 265 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 20 tons [6]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Spot Premium - The report presents spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][10] 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread - Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] 3.3 LME Inventory - LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [23][25][27] 3.4 SHFE Inventory - SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are presented [30][32][34] 3.5 Social Inventory - Social inventory charts for copper (including bonded area), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 are shown [36][38][40] 3.6 Smelting Profit - Charts display the copper concentrate index, copper rough processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] Group 4: Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with over a decade of experience; Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [50][51]

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main driver of major aromatic hydrocarbon varieties lies in the upstream crude oil. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts and subsequent oil price fluctuations, which will impact the costs of pure benzene and styrene. The domestic production rate of pure benzene has reached a high level, while the downstream CPL production rate has further declined, dragging down the demand for pure benzene. The US-South Korea window for pure benzene remains closed, and there is still significant pressure for shipments to China. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to rise, and the processing fee for pure benzene is weak. For styrene itself, the arrival rhythm has slowed down, leading to a slight decrease in port inventory. Although the absolute amount of port inventory is still low, the port basis is firm. In the medium to long term, with the gradual increase in styrene production, there is an expectation of factory inventory accumulation. Downstream, the inventory of PS and ABS still faces pressure, and the production rate is also mediocre [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - The report presents multiple figures related to EB and pure benzene basis structure and spreads, including EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, styrene consecutive one - consecutive three contract spreads, styrene non - integrated device production profit, styrene spot import profit, East China pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene CFR China - naphtha spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB South Korea, and China pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Figures show the East China port inventory of pure benzene, the production rate of pure benzene, the East China port inventory of styrene, the production rate of styrene, the East China commercial inventory of styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene [25][27][30] Downstream Production Rate and Production Profit - The report includes figures on the production rate and production profit of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [42][44][45] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Figures display the production profit of various pure benzene downstream products, including caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [47][52][54]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年6月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘反弹。产业链上，矿价继续坚挺，主要矿山挺价，但镍铁价格继续下行，国内镍铁企 业亏损程度进一步扩大，减产预期加强，倒逼矿价的可能性更大。不锈钢交易所仓单继续流出，库存上 升，需求偏弱。新能源汽车产销数据较好，电池向（6镍）倾向，有利于镍的需求提升。中长线过剩格 局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货119825，基差1345，偏多 3、库存：LME库存204120，-816，上交所仓单22139，-102，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2507：震荡偏弱运行，重心下移。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short - term, the market is affected by production data, and in the long - term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase need attention [4]. - Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may drag down sugar prices. Short - term sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. - Raw sugar has declined due to expected global supply increases. In China, summer stocking demand is delayed, and the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to materialize. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short - term [5]. - For trading strategies, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it's recommended to wait and see for arbitrage, while considering out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options for options trading [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR2511 closed at 5,679 with a decrease of 12 (-0.21%), trading volume of 190,971 (-9.53%), and open interest of 371,817 (0.68%); SR2507 closed at 5,732 with a decrease of 8 (-0.14%), trading volume of 2,847 (-12.35%), and open interest of 14,281 (-6.06%); SR2509 closed at 5,588 with a decrease of 14 (-0.25%), trading volume of 25,009 (3.21%), and open interest of 51,362 (-0.07%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: In regions like Liuzhou, Kunming, and Zhanjiang, spot prices ranged from 5,865 - 6,410 yuan/ton. The price in Liuzhou was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: SR07 - SR11 spread was 144 with an increase of 6; SR09 - SR11 spread was 91 with an increase of 1; SR07 - SR09 spread was 180 with an increase of 5 [3]. - **Import Profits**: For Brazilian imports, the in - quota price was 4,373 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5,589 yuan/ton. For Thai imports, the in - quota price was 4,425 yuan/ton, and the out - quota price was 5,657 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **International**: With Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production [4]. - **Domestic**: Fast sales may support prices, but imported sugar and weak raw sugar may lead to price drops. Short - term sugar prices are expected to be weak [4]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected supply increases, and China's summer stocking delay and raw sugar weakness have increased out - of - quota import profits. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow raw sugar prices [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side Trading**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term, following raw sugar fluctuations [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It's recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options Trading**: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi monthly inventory, Yunnan monthly inventory, new industrial inventory, domestic sugar cumulative sales rate, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price difference, sugar September basis, and Zhengzhou sugar 5 - 9 spread [11][13][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].

数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 样本企业产能利用率恢复性提升。 复至常规水平，上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率环比提升，预计短期轮胎企业产能利用率小幅波动为主。ru2 天然橡胶产业日报 2025-06-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 14010 | 140 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 12330 | 190 | | | 沪胶9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -860 | -15 20号胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 50 | -15 | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 1680 | -50 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 156240 | -293 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 22667 | -3079 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -17204 | 1020 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -5862 | -3849 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1931 ...

| 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/06/11 | 409.51 | 461.45 | -2.98 | 616.64 | -155.19 | 15.03 | 51.94 | | 2025/06/12 | 417.96 | 468.13 | -2.76 | 625.97 | -157.84 | 16.61 | 50.17 | | 2025/06/13 | 441.01 | 487.74 | -2.60 | 662.68 | -174.94 | 16.61 | 46.73 | | 2025/06/16 | 440.56 | 480.32 | -1.20 | 661. ...