Group 1: Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4224.75 with a change of -37.20 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 54.10 with a change of 1.08 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1674.00 with a change of 26.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1575.00 with a change of 35.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.54 with a change of 0.08 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 10522.50 with a change of -105.50 [1] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 98.56 with a change of 0.20 [1] - Euro to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.17 with a change of -0.00 [1] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest rate is 1.34 with a change of -0.00 [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest rate is 150.63 with a change of 0.20 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.75 with a change of 0.04 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15930.06 with no change [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 920.10 with a change of -62.16 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1047.21 with a change of 12.59 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15497.40 with a change of 74.79 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1216.97 with no change [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [2] Group 3: Chart Data Source - The data in the above charts comes from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term methanol market is expected to fluctuate. The fundamental pressure on methanol is significant, but its valuation is moderately low. With numerous important macro - events recently, the price is likely to move in a volatile pattern. The upside pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the macro - end sentiment provides support [4]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral central shock is expected to move downward. The 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2240 - 2250 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 month spread will enter a short - term shock pattern, and the MA - PP spread will also enter a shock pattern [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **This Week's Methanol Summary** - **Supply**: From October 10 - 16, 2025, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% week - on - week decline. Next week, production is expected to be around 1.9958 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate around 87.95% [4]. - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The olefin industry has no planned adjustments in the short term, and the operating rate is expected to remain high. - **Traditional downstream**: Different traditional downstream products have different capacity utilization rate trends. For example, the overall capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline, while that of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of October 15, 2025, 11:30, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase. - As of October 15, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 1.4914 million tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [4]. **Price and Spread** - **Base, Monthly Spread, and Warehouse Receipts**: The report presents historical data charts of methanol's base, monthly spread, and warehouse receipts from 2020 - 2025 [8][9][10]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: It shows the historical price trends of domestic methanol in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Lunan from 2020 - 2025 [13][14][15]. - **International Spot Prices**: Charts display the historical price trends of international methanol in regions like China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR, and Rotterdam FOB from 2020 - 2025 [17][18][19]. - **Port - Inland Price Spread**: The report provides historical data charts of the price spread between ports and inland areas from 2020 - 2025 [20][21][22]. **Supply** - **New Methanol Capacity**: From 2024 - 2025, many new methanol plants were put into production in China, with a total capacity expansion of 4000000 tons in 2024 and 8400000 tons in 2025. Overseas, the total international capacity expansion was 3.55 million tons in 2024 and 3.3 million tons in 2025 [25]. - **Methanol Maintenance**: A list of domestic methanol plant shutdowns and production cuts is provided, including details such as province, enterprise name, capacity, maintenance start and end dates, etc. The total affected capacity is 8.54 million tons [27]. - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Historical data charts of methanol production, capacity utilization rate in China and different regions, and production by different processes from 2018 - 2025 are presented [28][30][31]. - **Methanol Import - Related**: Charts show historical data on China's methanol import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit from 2020 - 2025 [38][39][40]. - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Historical data charts of methanol production costs and profits by different processes in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are shown [43][44][45]. **Demand** - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Historical data charts of the operating rates of methanol downstream industries such as methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, and formaldehyde from 2020 - 2025 are presented [53][54][55]. - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Charts show the historical profit data of methanol downstream industries in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [60][61][63]. - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Historical data charts of the procurement volume of methanol - to - olefins production enterprises in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are provided [68][69][70]. - **Traditional Downstream Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Historical data charts of the raw material procurement volume of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in different regions from 2020 - 2025 are presented [73][74][75]. - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Charts show the historical inventory data of traditional downstream methanol raw materials in different regions from 2020 - 2025 [78][79][80]. **Inventory** - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Historical data charts of methanol factory inventory in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 are presented [83][84][85]. - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Charts show the historical inventory data of methanol ports in China and different regions from 2018 - 2025 [89][90][91].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory accumulation trend of alumina continues, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is hard to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 17, the alumina index fell 1.82% to 2809 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 23,000 lots to 458,000 lots. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations and the high - start and high - inventory pattern of alumina, the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price was 2815 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 29 yuan/ton [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 63,000 tons to 4.639 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the in - plant inventory of alumina plants, the in - transit inventory, and the port inventory increased by 11,000 tons, 0 tons, 23,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of SHFE alumina increased by 45,200 tons to 221,300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week [11][70][73]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is hard to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12][13]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline this week, with different degrees of decline in different regions. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price had a premium over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was negative [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and due to profit contraction, alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production decreased [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The cumulative imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. From different importing countries, imports from Guinea and Australia had different changes [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, with a total inventory of 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In September 2025, alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. The operating capacity in September was 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.12% and a month - on - month increase of 2.54% [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. Different regions had different profit situations, with some regions approaching or in a loss state [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import window opened recently, and it is expected that the import volume in September and October will gradually increase, which may further intensify the domestic supply - surplus situation. As of October 17, the Australian FOB price decreased, and the import window was closed [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In September 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the situation of supply and demand, import and export, and related data in different months from January to December 2025. The supply and demand situation varies in different months, and there are differences in net exports [65]. 6. Inventory The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, and the warehouse receipts of SHFE and the delivery warehouse inventory also increased. The continuous inventory accumulation shows that the supply in the market is relatively abundant [70][73].

1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Methanol - The price may continue to fluctuate under the game of supply and demand. Focus on the stability of overseas device operation, the customs - clearance efficiency of sanctioned vessels, and actual arrival performance. Pay attention to the port destocking rhythm and the implementation effect of overseas gas - limiting expectations [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - The inventory pressure after the holiday is still significant. The supply pressure is prominent in the medium - and long - term, and the demand lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Caustic Soda - There is demand support in the medium - and long - term, but it is weak in the short term. It was previously recommended to be bearish, and now the short positions can be temporarily closed as the market stabilizes [8]. PVC - The short - term disk may continue to be under pressure. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased and exports have recovered, the demand in the peak season is weak. Pay attention to cost support and downstream demand performance [8]. PX - The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the fourth quarter. It will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and mainly conduct reverse spreads on the monthly spread [9]. PTA - The short - term drive is limited, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see TA, pay attention to the support around 4500, and conduct rolling reverse spreads on TA1 - 5 [9]. Ethylene Glycol - It is expected to accumulate inventory in October, and the supply - demand structure is weak in the far - month. It is recommended to short EG01 on rallies, hold the seller of the out - of - the - money call option EG2601 - C - 4350, and conduct reverse spreads on EG1 - 5 [9]. Short Fibers - The absolute price is still under pressure in the short term, but it is relatively strong compared to raw materials due to low inventory. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and widen the processing margin at a low level [9]. Bottle Chips - It is likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel. PR follows the cost end, and the processing margin improves in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [9]. Pure Benzene - The overall supply and demand in October are expected to be loose, and the price drive is weak. BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices [10]. Styrene - The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is still under pressure in the short term. EB11 should be treated as a short - selling opportunity on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Catalog Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices rose slightly on October 16. The basis and regional spreads changed. The spot prices in some regions decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased by 6.33%, the port inventory decreased by 3.36%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.61% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased by 1.86%, the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 5.33%. Some downstream operating rates changed, with the MTO device operating rate increasing by 4.63% [1]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - **Price and Spread**: L2601, PP2601 and other futures prices rose slightly. The basis and price differences between contracts changed [5]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, and the trade - related inventory of PP also increased [5]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 2.61%, and the PP device operating rate increased by 0.6% [5]. Caustic Soda and PVC - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of PVC increased [8]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased, but the external - purchase calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased [8]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some decreasing [8]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory and social inventory increased [8]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The prices of polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed, and the cash flows also changed [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: The PX price and related spreads changed, with the PX basis decreasing significantly [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA price and basis changed, and the processing margin decreased [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The MEG price and basis changed, and the inventory increased [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as crude oil and pure benzene changed, and the spreads also changed [10]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The styrene price and related spreads changed, and the cash flow improved [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [10]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream industries changed, with some decreasing [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trade situation remains volatile, and the weakening of the US dollar index has led to new highs in precious metal prices. The supply - demand relationship of copper provides strong support for prices, and short - term price declines may be limited. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Short - term trends of lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy are also analyzed, with corresponding price ranges provided [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Trade situation is volatile, the US dollar index is weak, and copper prices oscillate upwards. LME copper inventory decreases, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory increase slightly, and the spot import loss narrows. The refined - scrap price difference narrows [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas copper mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output tighten supply expectations, and short - term price declines may be limited. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 84,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10,500 - 10,750 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Domestic inventory decreases, and the US may introduce an automobile tariff grace period. Aluminum prices are strongly trending. LME aluminum inventory decreases, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decline [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio, seasonal consumption recovery, and strong exports, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is small, and prices may continue to oscillate strongly. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,900 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2,750 - 2,820 US dollars/ton [6]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closes slightly lower. LME lead price declines, and domestic social inventory remains unchanged. The refined - scrap price difference is 75 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent lead ore inventory rises slightly, and the production of primary lead smelting remains high. The waste lead inventory declines, and the production of secondary lead smelting is at a low level. The lead ingot factory inventory accumulates. The short - term Shanghai lead is expected to be strong [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closes slightly lower, and the LME zinc price rises. Domestic social inventory accumulates slightly, and the zinc ingot export window opens [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and most downstream enterprises maintain normal production. The LME registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is still a structural risk. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate at a low level with increased volatility [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines slightly. The import of tin ore is at a low level due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining. The smelting enterprise operating rate is low, and downstream demand is mixed. The consumption margin improves during the peak season, but high prices still suppress consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with the recovery of peak - season demand, tin prices may oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 34,000 - 36,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillate. Spot market transactions are average, and brand premiums rise slightly. Nickel ore prices are stable, nickel - iron prices are weak, and MHP coefficient prices are high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term trade frictions may reduce market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, weak nickel - iron prices and high refined nickel inventory pressure may drag down nickel prices, but in the long term, there are supporting factors. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops significantly. The reference operating range for the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, and the futures contract price also increases. The market's available spot is tight, and the premium strengthens [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Social inventory and exchange warehouse receipts continue to decline. If consumption remains strong and resonates with the macro - environment, lithium prices may break through the upper limit. Short - term strong oscillation is more likely. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 73,000 - 77,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declines slightly, and the trading volume increases. The spot price in Shandong drops, and the import window closes. The futures warehouse receipts decrease [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices have short - term support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and inventory accumulation continues. It is recommended to wait and see for macro - sentiment resonance. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinean ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price rises slightly, and the trading volume increases. Spot prices in different markets show different trends, and raw material prices are stable. Social inventory decreases, but 300 - series inventory increases [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the holiday, social inventory accumulates significantly, but terminal consumption is flat. The market does not show the characteristics of the traditional peak season. Spot prices decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The market trend is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The AD2511 contract price rises, the trading volume and open interest increase. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 is stable, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The firm cost provides support for the aluminum alloy price, but the current market sentiment is volatile, and the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is relatively large, limiting the upward price space [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. Macro factors include the approaching Sino - US tariff extension deadline and the unexpected decline in US ADP employment in September. Fundamentally, the shortage of copper ore supply is a long - term concern, and subsequent attention should be paid to demand changes and Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main support level is 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market continued its weak operation, and the aluminum market remained in an oversupply situation, with spot prices expected to remain under pressure. The short - term main contract of aluminum may fluctuate in the 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton range. For aluminum, the price center of Shanghai aluminum futures has moved up, but high prices have suppressed spot purchases. The macro environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance state. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures showed a volatile trend. Cost support is prominent, but supply is restricted by raw material shortages and unclear policies. Demand is in a mild recovery state, and inventories are accumulating. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level shock, with the main contract reference range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile, and there was still pressure above the price. Fundamentally, the supply - side logic has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. The subsequent focus is on TC growth and inventory performance. In the short term, zinc prices may be driven up by macro factors but will likely maintain a shock pattern [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand has not improved significantly. Considering the strong supply - side and macro - factor fluctuations, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment falls. The future trend of tin prices depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market showed a narrow - range shock, and the market sentiment was weak. There are uncertainties in Sino - US tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut path. The supply of nickel ore is mixed, and the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate is not strong. It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the range of 120000 - 126000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market maintained a weak shock, and traders were mainly waiting and watching. Macro factors have uncertainties, and raw - material prices are firm. The supply pressure is increasing, and the peak - season demand has not been realized. It is expected that the short - term market will be in a weak shock adjustment, with the main operation range of 12400 - 12800 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures market was in an overall shock state. The supply - side has information uncertainties, while the demand is steadily optimistic. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state during the peak season, and the whole - chain inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a shock adjustment, with the main price center of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [17][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 85235 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous day; the premium was 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. Other copper varieties also showed price changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; in August, imports were 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The operating rates of copper rod production from electrolytic copper and recycled copper decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20920 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous day; the premium was 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of aluminum profiles and cables decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy was 21000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day. The month - to - month spreads showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% month - on - month. The operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the month - to - month spreads changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; in August, imports increased by 43.30% month - on - month. The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide decreased [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price was 281700 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day; the premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month; the average operating rate was 43.60%, down 31.77% month - on - month. The export volume of Indonesian refined tin in September increased by 50.00% [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122300 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The import loss decreased, and the price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's refined nickel production was 32200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; imports were 17010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month. Inventories in different regions changed [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and ferro - chrome showed different trends [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly in September. The import and export volumes of stainless steel changed, and the social inventory of 300 - series increased [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 73000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The month - to - month spreads changed [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; demand was 116801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month. The inventory in different links changed [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: After the holiday, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened slightly. With some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production, the PTA supply - demand outlook improved. It is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - MEG: This week, the arrival at the main port of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is expected to rise early next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol market will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA** - Fundamental: The PTA futures fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis was weak. The trading was mainly among traders, and the polyester factories' purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The mainstream price for October goods was negotiated and traded at around 85 points discount to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly higher, and the price negotiation range was around 4,305 - 4,345. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,325, the basis of the 01 contract is - 97, and the futures price is at a premium. It is neutral [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days. It is bearish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [6]. - Main position: The net short position increased. It is bearish [6]. - **MEG** - Fundamental: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a low range, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened lower and consolidated, and the trading in the market was weak. In the morning, affected by the news of additional port charges for existing ships, the ethylene glycol disk rose slightly, and then the market maintained a narrow - range shock. In the afternoon, the basis fell slightly, and the spot was traded at around a 63 - 65 yuan/ton premium to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The recent cargo was negotiated at around 483 - 487 US dollars/ton, and there were transactions at around 484 US dollars/ton for recent cargo during the day. The trading was mainly participated by traders [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,122, the basis of the 01 contract is 65, and the futures price is at a discount. It is neutral [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons. It is bearish [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. It is bearish [8]. - Main position: The main net short position decreased. It is bearish [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Positive Factors** - Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the sales of the polyester market were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the production and sales of filament yarn were only 10% - 20%. The average inventory accumulation in 8 days is expected to exceed 5 days [9]. - Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, and the postponement of new device production [10]. - **Negative Factors** - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing its operation to over 90%. This device reduced its load around October 7 [11]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level when the disk rebounds [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and inventory changes [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It records the ethylene glycol production, import, supply, polyester production capacity, load, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the supply - demand gap and port inventory changes [14]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price trends of bottle - grade chips, production margins, operating rates, inventory, spreads, and other data from 2020 to 2025, covering PTA, MEG, and polyester products [16][19][23][24][26][30][33][37][40][42][51][53][57][62][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, the cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply overhaul volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.79% decline, at 443.70 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 1.90 million barrels to 11.49 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 10.06 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.67 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.53 million barrels to 45.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 32 yuan, Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan, and Lunan decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan, at 2298 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive at +19. The 1 - 5 spread changed by +13, at - 13 [4]. - **Strategy View**: With reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 50. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 74 [7]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating and showed signs of stabilization. The long - side of natural rubber RU was bullish due to seasonal and demand expectations, while the short - side was bearish due to weak demand. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025 [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: Macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 15 yuan, at 4677 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 (+15) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 314 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase, and factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5590 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 6550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6540 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan weakening. The supply - side upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons [17]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6910 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 125 yuan/ton, a 8 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises and traders increased [20]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6595 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises, traders, and ports increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6312 yuan. PX CFR increased by 8 dollars, at 787 dollars. The basis was 128 yuan (+89). The 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25]. - **Strategy View**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls in the short term. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. Although the valuation is at a neutral - low level, there is limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in the terminal and PTA valuations [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4422 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 55 yuan, at 4325 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. Social inventory increased by 5.3 million tons on October 10 [26]. - **Strategy View**: In the future, the supply overhaul volume remains high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand for polyester fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan, at 4057 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 31 yuan, at 4114 yuan. The basis was 65 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan (+2). The supply - side EG load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants adjusted their loads. Port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons [27][30]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the operating loads of domestic and overseas plants are high, domestic supply is large, imports are increasing, and ports are turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic loads, along with the gradual commissioning of new plants, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high year - on - year, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [31].

Report Summary for Polyolefins 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The post - holiday inventory pressure of polyolefins remains significant. The supply side has long - term supply pressure, and the demand side lacks highlights. The upside space of the 01 contract is limited. PE's supply pressure is prominent due to increased domestic production and overseas destocking. PP's valuation has been repaired, and attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices and new device production pressure in October [2]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined, with L2601 down 0.93%, L2509 down 1.05%, PP2601 down 1.36%, and PP2509 down 0.98%. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 10.23%, while the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 47.17%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as the 0.31% increase in East China PP fiber spot and the 0.86% decrease in North China LDPE film material spot [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 27.67% to 48.9 (unit not clearly stated), and social inventory increased by 4.02% to 54.6 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 30.96% to 68.1 million tons, and trader inventory increased by 39.48% to 26.1 (unit not clearly stated) [2]. - **Operating Rate**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.26% to 83.9%, and downstream weighted operating rate increased by 0.52% to 44.4%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.5% to 77.7%, and powder operating rate increased by 5.4% to 39.3% [2]. Report Summary for Benzene - Styrene 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of pure benzene is expected to be loose in October, and the price driver is weak. The supply of styrene is expected to remain high, and the price is still under pressure. For pure benzene, BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of styrene and oil prices. For styrene, the rebound of EB11 price should be treated as short - selling [5]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (November) decreased by 1.5%, and CFR China benzene decreased by 2.1%. The EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 30.0% [5]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.1% to 9.00 million tons, and styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 2.7% to 19.65 million tons [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate increased by 1.4% to 80.1%, and the domestic styrene operating rate decreased by 0.1% to 73.2% [5]. Report Summary for Methanol 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The methanol market has a mixed situation of long and short factors. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - time pressure and future expectations. Attention should be paid to the supply reduction expectation caused by overseas gas restrictions in mid - October, as well as the operation of overseas devices and the situation of Iranian ship sanctions [6]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, MA2601 decreased by 2.90%, and MA2605 decreased by 2.29%. The MA15 spread increased by 116.67%, and the Taicang basis decreased by 72.22% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 6.08% to 33.94 (unit not clearly stated), port inventory increased by 3.42% to 154.3 million tons, and social inventory increased by 3.89% to 188.3 (unit not clearly stated) [6]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 1.01% to 78%, and the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 4.63% to 86.28% [6]. Report Summary for Polyester Industry Chain 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the polyester industry chain, PX is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and short - term PX is in weak shock. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and the price is weak. Short - fiber prices are under pressure, and bottle chips are likely to enter the seasonal inventory accumulation channel [8]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of most products in the polyester industry chain declined. For example, Brent crude oil (December) decreased by 1.5%, and POY150/48 price decreased by 0.4% [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The coal - based MEG operating rate increased from 74.4% to 78.8%, and the Asian PX operating rate increased by 2.4% to 79.9% [8]. - **Inventory and Forecast**: MEG port inventory increased by 6.7% to 54.1 million tons, and the expected arrival of MEG increased by 27.5% to 10.2 million tons [8]. Report Summary for PVC and Caustic Soda 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in the short - term but has long - term demand support. PVC production pressure has slightly eased, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure, and the short - term disk is expected to continue to be under pressure [9]. 3. Key Points from Catalog - **Price and Spread**: On October 14, compared with the 13th, the prices of some PVC and caustic soda products declined. For example, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 0.7%, and the 50% liquid caustic soda converted price in Shandong decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.6% to 88.2%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 6.2% to 80.8%. The operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC decreased, such as the 18.8% decrease in the开工 rate of Longzhong sample profiles [9]. - **Inventory**: The PVC upstream factory inventory increased by 20.5% to 38.4 million tons, and the total PVC social inventory increased by 4.2% to 55.7 million tons [9].