南都讯 记者杨文君 刘嫚发自天津 6月24日—6月26日，世界经济论坛第十六届新领军者年会（又称"夏 季达沃斯论坛"）在天津举行，论坛期间举办了首席经济学家简报发布会。 黄益平具体谈到，需要区分短期和长期的财政政策，从长期的角度来看，经济学家的观点是需要约束政 府，不然的话可能面临一些可持续性的财政问题。 "个人认为世界上很多国家都面临着不同的问题，比如一个国家身处危机之中，或者处在短期的快速的 经济收缩阶段，亦或处在经济急速下行的过程中，个人认为此时需要更加积极主动的财政政策。因为只 有在我们去进行扩张的财政政策时，我们才可以去稳定经济，我们才有足够的空间来帮助我们去重新获 得财政的健康。"黄益平说，长期来讲，财政的可持续性也是需要充分考虑的。 据了解，财政可持续性反映着国家财政的存续状态，其强弱关系到财政职能作用的发挥，进而关系到国 家发展战略实现、各极政府职能履行、经济和社会发展等重大问题。 曾有国内专家谈到，财政可持续性有狭义和广义之分。狭义财政可持续性分析框架主要研究政府债务可 持续性问题。广义财政可持续性分析框架不仅包含对财政自身运行状况的分析，即狭义财政可持续性分 析，而且涉及对财政以外因素的分 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resurgence of consumerism, particularly among Generation Z, as seen in the popularity of brands like LABUBU, indicating a shift from previous discussions of "consumption downgrade" to a renewed focus on consumption as a primary economic driver [1][2] - The article discusses the historical context of consumption, noting that in pre-modern times, the concept of consumption was limited, with individuals primarily using items until they were exhausted, reflecting a lack of individual consumer identity [2][4] - It highlights the evolution of consumerism, where the relationship between consumers and producers has become more detached, leading to exploitation and a focus on marketing and branding over practical utility [3][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the transformative impact of various revolutions—personal, material, urban, and national—on the emergence of modern consumerism, which has reshaped societal structures and individual identities [4][5] - It points out that while consumerism has led to societal tensions and conflicts, it has also contributed to the development of a resilient society by fostering individual expression and collective action [7][12] - The article argues that the shift from an investment-oriented economy to a consumption-oriented one represents not just an economic change but a broader social revolution, necessitating a supportive environment for diverse expressions of individuality and interests [12]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on strategies to expand domestic demand and boost consumption in Guangxi, emphasizing the importance of these efforts for high-quality economic development [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - Guangxi is at a critical stage of development, with favorable conditions for high-quality growth and the need for clear strategies and effective implementation [2]. - The importance of enhancing consumer confidence and increasing consumption capacity through stable employment and social security measures was highlighted [3]. Group 2: Consumption Enhancement Initiatives - The government aims to meet consumer demand with high-quality supply and promote new business models, including cultural and sports events to stimulate emotional consumption [3]. - There is a focus on leveraging artificial intelligence to create unique consumer products and services that enhance daily life [3]. Group 3: Investment and Market Environment - Effective investment in consumer infrastructure and services is essential to unlock consumption potential [3]. - The establishment of a favorable business environment and transparent market conditions is crucial for expanding domestic demand and stabilizing consumption [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均早盘震荡盘整，午后小幅上涨。近期国内宏观经济指标边际走弱，信贷、通 胀等数据表现偏弱表明内需下行压力仍存，未来仍需要更多托底需求的政策出 ...

这两年，"宏观数据和微观体感出现温差"常被提起。对此，有研究团队试图在长期提振经济增长内生动 力的框架内来探讨解决方案。他们概括了两句话：一是"水龙头拧得更大"，二是"水管更加通畅"。水龙 头的"进水口"对应的是经济增长动能，"出水口"对应的则是老百姓的获得感，中间这条"水管"就是一整 套与新动能特性相匹配的发展成果分享机制。"伴随着新动能的发展，一整套与之匹配的发展成果分享 机制亟待重塑。" 在现场，多位专家不约而同聚焦了一个词——"内生动力"，它被提及了10次。在外部环境日趋复杂的情 况下，这是中国经济稳舵远航的关键。 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣看到，今年以来，中国经济总体平稳，部分指标好于预期，展现 出较强的韧性。他对上半年中国经济实现5%左右的目标充满信心。 2025年行程即将过半，上半年中国经济实现了良好开局，但下半年的压力不容小觑。6月21日，中国宏 观经济论坛(CMF)2025年中期论坛在北京举行，多位"大咖"齐聚于此，为中国经济这艘"巨轮"稳舵远航 出谋划策。 中国人民大学校长林尚立表示，宏观经济在今日中国是事关国家和民生的大事，也是关乎人类和世界的 大事。我们关注的是中国，影响的是世 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huaitongda Network is enhancing its capital operations by converting approximately 91.48% of its domestic shares into H-shares, which is expected to significantly increase its market capitalization and liquidity, thereby attracting more investors [1][2] Group 1: Capital Operations - The company has submitted an application to the China Securities Regulatory Commission to convert about 91.48% of its domestic shares into H-shares, increasing the proportion of H-shares from 32.04% to 94.21% of the total share capital [1] - This move is anticipated to lead to a substantial increase in the company's circulating market value, with over 530 million H-shares expected to be in circulation post-conversion [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The conversion to full circulation is expected to optimize the shareholder structure, attracting a more diverse group of investors, particularly international capital [2] - The significant increase in circulating market value and enhanced liquidity are key factors for inclusion in major international indices such as MSCI and FTSE Russell, which may draw more passive index funds and international active investors [2] - The expansion of circulating shares is projected to significantly boost the company's average daily trading volume and market depth, enhancing its investment appeal [2] Group 3: Historical Context - Past cases of companies that transitioned to full circulation, such as October Rice and Changjie Tong, have generally shown positive market performance, suggesting that Huaitongda Network may experience a new round of value discovery and market capitalization recovery due to its solid business foundation and strategic layout [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% in the first half of 2024, demonstrating resilience despite external uncertainties and internal challenges [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May 2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024 [1][3]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for the first five months of 2024 was 5% [3]. External Trade - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first five months was 1.3%, with exports growing by 6% [2]. - Factors contributing to export growth include increased non-U.S. exports, "export grabbing" effects, and "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports [2][4]. Consumer Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with furniture, communication, and home appliance retail sales growing over 20% [3]. - In 2024, the central and local governments allocated approximately 170 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy, expected to raise retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point [3]. Investment and Consumption Outlook - There is a need to stimulate both consumption and investment in high-tech sectors and productive services [5]. - The focus should be on stabilizing domestic consumption and investment, with an emphasis on the real estate market and capital market stability [5]. Structural Reforms - The current economic strategy emphasizes the need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [6][7]. - Reforms in fiscal and tax systems are necessary to enhance local governments' incentives to boost consumption [7]. Monetary Policy - There is still room to lower the reserve requirement ratio, and stabilizing asset prices should be included in monetary policy considerations [7].

作者 | 独行侠 数据支持 | 勾股大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 6月13日以来，中国股票市场整体进入新一轮调整期。今日，在银行权重、小微盘股发力之下，三大指数略有反 弹。 然而，新消费等前期有赚钱效应的板块依旧萎靡，全市场成交也愈发寡淡。最近两个交易日，沪深京三市成交仅 1.1万亿左右，与之前的1.5万亿水平下滑较大。 这些热门新消费企业则是此前资金抱团的代表，涨幅在几个月之内高达数倍。为什么突然开始瓦解大杀估值了 呢？ 首先，加大内需刺激托经济的预期暂时被证伪。 在 6月5日中美通话之前，美国对华加征关税反反复复，市场对 于90天到期之后是否还会恢复加征关税抱有很大分歧，主流预期依旧是不乐观。 但通话定调了，加之中美在伦敦接触，向市场释放了明确信号 ——中方握有稀土这张王牌，美国难以在关税问题 上再度发难。那么，加大内需刺激对冲关税稳经济的宏观逻辑暂时就不成立了。 6月15日，据统计局披露数据显示，5月社零消费同比增长6.4%，大超市场预期的4.9%和前值的5.1%。其中， 以旧换新商品增速高达34%，成为支撑社零最重要的力量。这一数据越好，代表当前经济增长表现较好，也暗示 了接下来内需刺 ...

发布时间：2025-06-23 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 策略观点 短期地缘冲突逆风延续，A 股面临压力 ⚫ 投资要点 本周 A 股受外围地缘政治冲突影响表现不佳。本周主要股指全数 下跌，其中高股息大市值个股占比高的上证 50 微跌 0.10%表现最佳， 其余权重指数跌幅亦较小，科创 50、创业板指、中证 1000 和中证 500 跌幅较大。行业层面，外围地缘冲突影响下市场风偏趋于谨慎。本周 申万一级行业中仅有银行、通信和电子有正收益，在伊以冲突延续并 有烈度增强迹象的背景下，A 股在下半周避险情绪显著升温，快速切 向以银行为代表的高股息板块进行防御。 A 股个人投资者情绪指数再跌入 ...

Logistics Industry - The logistics sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 6.2% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 8.0% [1] - The shift from external to internal demand is contributing to excess returns in the logistics industry, with direct-operated express companies like SF Express and JD Logistics performing better than franchise-based counterparts [1] - The competitive intensity in the logistics sector is expected to be controllable due to effective regulatory constraints, despite a stronger demand for market share among leading companies [1] Shipping Industry - The shipping sector has experienced a year-to-date increase of 0.8%, with an excess return of 2.6% compared to the CSI 300 as of June 13, 2025 [2] - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to maintain strong export levels until mid-July, coupled with temporary capacity tightness, which may lead to further price increases in the shipping sector [2] - In the medium term, the supply of oil tankers, particularly VLCCs, remains tight, and a recovery in demand may lead to rising freight rates [2] Infrastructure Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the highway, railway, and port sectors have underperformed the market by 0.74, 4.23, and 0.73 percentage points, respectively [3] - The growth in passenger traffic on highways is driven by an increase in vehicle ownership and sustained short-distance travel demand, with the summer peak season expected to boost high-speed rail travel [3] - The recovery in domestic demand is anticipated to positively impact the freight transport sector, with the easing of U.S. tariff policies likely to sustain high levels of export trade in the short term [3]