Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue its high - level oscillation before steel mills cut production, and the performance of key steel products should be closely monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger. Attention should be paid to the support level at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the iron ore price has fallen from its high level [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is weak, causing the over - valued iron ore price to fall under pressure. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable. The rigid demand for ore is relatively good, providing support for the price. However, the contradictions in the steel market are continuously accumulating, and the positive effects are weakening. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has reached a new high, and the shipments from miners remain at a high level. Overseas ore suppliers are actively supplying under high prices, and domestic ore supply has also recovered, increasing the supply pressure. - In summary, the supply pressure of ore persists, and combined with the weakening market sentiment, the over - valued iron ore price has fallen under pressure. But the high - level rigid demand for ore continues to support the price, creating resistance to the downward movement [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The research report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not easy to be overly bearish. A range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with the return of concentrated domestic installations, high production profits, and increased imports, supply pressure is high. Demand is weak, and inventory pressure is large. However, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, after the holiday, the futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price dropped less. Supply pressure increased, demand was weak, and inventory rose. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. - For rubber, affected by the macro - environment, the rubber price broke down in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit has declined to a low level, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, although the spot and futures prices are falling, the BZN spread has room for upward repair. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the port inventory may decline, and the price may stop falling [19]. - For polyethylene, cost support exists, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, the price may fluctuate upward [22]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure remains, demand is seasonally rebounding from a low level, and inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction [25]. - For PX, the load remains high, downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the expected PX inventory accumulation cycle will continue. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. - For PTA, the supply - side overhaul volume is high, the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is starting to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [31]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures fell 6.80 yuan/barrel, or 1.45%, to 461.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.27 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.31 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels, naphtha inventory increased by 0.78 million barrels, and aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels. The total refined oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, and verify OPEC's export - price - support intention when oil prices fall [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang fell 3 yuan, in Inner Mongolia fell 5 yuan, and remained stable in southern Shandong. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 17 yuan to 2307 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 12 to - 44 [3]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the current short - selling cost - effectiveness is low [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong fell 20 yuan, and in Henan fell 30 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market fell 12 yuan to 1597 yuan, and the basis was - 57. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to - 69 [6]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities when there are clear positive signals [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Affected by the US tariff statement, global risk asset prices dropped. Forecasted rainfall in Thailand and other places will increase in the next 7 - 14 days. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday. As of October 9, 2025, the all - steel tire开工率 in Shandong was 46.38%, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was 50.87%. The export of semi - steel tires slowed down. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 111.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons [11]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or operate short - term, and partially re - establish a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2511 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4640 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 95. The 1 - 5 spread was - 318. The cost side remained stable, the overall开工率 was 82.6%, and the downstream开工率 was 47.8%. Factory inventory was 38.4 million tons, and social inventory was 103.6 million tons [13]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term due to strong supply, weak demand, and poor export expectations [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5770 yuan/ton. The styrene spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 6750 yuan/ton, and the active - contract closing price fell 75 yuan/ton to 6743 yuan/ton. The basis was 7 yuan/ton, and the BZN spread was 125.75 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 73.61%, and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.44 million tons to 20.19 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted开工率 was 38.54% [18]. - **Strategy**: The styrene price may stop falling as the BZN spread has room for upward repair and the seasonal peak season is approaching [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 40 yuan/ton to 7037 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 83.6%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.56 million tons to 38.27 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.43 million tons to 4.67 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 45% [21]. - **Strategy**: The price may fluctuate upward as cost support exists and the seasonal peak season is approaching [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main - contract closing price fell 23 yuan/ton to 6722 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6780 yuan/ton. The basis was 58 yuan/ton. The upstream开工率 was 77.29%. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 3.03 million tons to 52.03 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 0.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.47 million tons to 6.65 million tons. The downstream average开工率 was 52% [24]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction due to high supply pressure, seasonal demand rebound, and high inventory pressure [25]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol - **PX** - **Market Information**: The PX11 contract fell 82 yuan to 6504 yuan. The PX CFR fell 11 dollars to 798 dollars. The PX load in China was 87.4%, and in Asia was 79.9%. Some domestic and overseas installations restarted, and one Japanese installation was under maintenance. The PTA load was 74.4%. In September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 37.9 million tons [27]. - **Strategy**: The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [28]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract fell 50 yuan to 4534 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 10 yuan to 4490 yuan. The PTA load was 74.4%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) on September 26 was 210.7 million tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see as the supply - side overhaul volume is high and the processing fee space is limited [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract fell 58 yuan to 4100 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 18 yuan to 4206 yuan. The supply - side load was 75.1%. The downstream load was 91.5%. The port inventory increased by 9.8 million tons to 50.7 million tons [30]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to high supply, increasing imports, and expected inventory accumulation [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Manganese silicon/silicon iron: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. The cost center will move up due to the rebound of coking coal prices, while the supply pressure remains with the continuous release of new manganese silicon production capacity and high - level silicon iron supply. With lackluster demand, the prices of ferrous commodities may be more affected by the macro - environment and policy expectations, deviating from fundamentals. It is expected that ferroalloy prices will seek a balance between weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, showing a range - bound trend with limited upside and downside space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Review of the Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Markets - In the first quarter, manganese ore prices rose steadily due to factors such as decreasing port inventories and reduced Gabonese shipments, driving up manganese silicon prices. Then, as the cost - driving force weakened, manganese silicon prices declined until a rebound in the third quarter. Silicon iron prices were under pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand. Although it followed the upward trend of manganese silicon passively, it continued to decline. In the third quarter, both manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rebounded with the recovery of coking coal prices [11] 3.2 Manganese Silicon: Rising Costs and High - Level Supply 3.2.1 Cost Increase - Manganese ore prices reached a high in the first quarter, driven by factors like slow overseas shipments, low port inventories, and concentrated ownership of oxidized ore. After that, prices declined as supply increased. In the third quarter, the price increase was limited. In the fourth quarter, port inventories are expected to be replenished, but the decline in prices may be limited. Chemical coke prices fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they are expected to fluctuate within a range, providing some support to alloy prices [22][40] 3.2.2 High - Level Supply - Manganese silicon manufacturers' operating rates declined this year due to shrinking profits, but increased slightly in the second quarter as costs eased. In the third quarter, the operating rate remained high. In the fourth quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, maintaining high - level supply [42] 3.3 Silicon Iron: Rising Operating Rates and Increasing Inventories 3.3.1 Supply Release Driven by Rising Futures Profits - Silicon iron production was high from January to April. In the second quarter, production decreased due to losses. In the third quarter, with the recovery of prices and profits, supply increased. In different regions, Inner Mongolia had a high and rising operating rate, Ningxia was stable, and Shaanxi had a relatively low operating rate. In the fourth quarter, the over - capacity situation remains, and the operating rate will be profit - driven, with high supply elasticity [50][51] 3.3.2 Pressured Steel Demand at Home and Abroad - In the fourth quarter, steel demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and weak real - estate investment. Silicon iron exports have been under pressure this year and are expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter. The demand from the magnesium market has limited impact on silicon iron. The balance of the silicon iron market in the fourth quarter will depend on supply - side adjustments [68] 3.4 Summary of Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron in the Second Half of the Year - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. Cost centers will move up, while supply pressure remains. With lackluster demand, prices are expected to be range - bound, and the market's volatility will depend on the game between cost support, supply pressure, and macro - factors [70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - **Methanol**: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - **PX**: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - **PTA**: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - **Bottle Chip**: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - **PP**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - **Propylene**: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound due to oil price support, but mid - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions and maintain reverse calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Short - term cost support is strong, but mid - term unilateral trend is weak. Implement 1 - 5 reverse calendar spreads [7]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is bearish due to large supply pressure. Short on rallies and hold reverse calendar spreads [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential escalation of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude futures contract 11 rose $1.13/barrel (+1.81% month - on - month), and ICE Brent crude futures contract 11 rose $1.06/barrel (+1.59% month - on - month) [3]. - **PX**: On September 23, PX price declined. The Asian PX price dropped month - on - month as market sentiment and buying interest weakened. The 10 - month MOPJ was estimated at $586/ton CFR. The PX valuation on September 23 was $803/ton, a $5 decrease from September 22 [3][4]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4470 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 79 [5]. - **MEG**: The spot price this week and next week was around 4325 yuan/ton (high) and 4270 yuan/ton (low), with a daily average of 4297 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from September 22 - 28 was about 7.3 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On September 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of just over 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6530 | - 6592 | - 0.94% | PX11 - 1 | 4 | 18 | - 14 | | PTA Main | 4556 | - 30 | - 0.65% | PTA11 - 1 | - 22 | - 20 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 4212 | - 28 | - 0.66% | MEG1 - 5 | - 67 | - 54 | - 13 | | PF Main | 6250 | - 24 | - 0.38% | PF11 - 12 | 40 | 34 | 6 | | SC Main | 473.1 | - 9.9 | - 2.05% | SC11 - 12 | - 0.5 | - 0.2 | - 0.3 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 803.33 | 808.33 | - 5 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4468 | 4515 | - 47 | | MEG Spot | 4292 | 4342 | - 50 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597.5 | 595.62 | 1.88 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.41 | 66.75 | 1.66 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 218.92 | 227.29 | - 8.38 | | PTA Processing Fee | 174.72 | 189.33 | - 14.61 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 237.89 | 220.08 | 17.81 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 67.94 | 40.17 | 27.78 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a short-term high-level fluctuation due to increased production in Xinjiang and strong coal prices providing cost support, despite overall inventory levels being high [3]. Supply - In Xinjiang, the weekly industrial silicon production increased by 0.15 million tons to 33.6 thousand tons, with the operating rate rising by 3.1% to 69.36% [2]. - In Yunnan, production slightly increased by 50 tons to 7,565 tons, while Sichuan's production remained stable at 2,135 tons [2]. Demand - The operating rates for recycled and primary aluminum alloys remained stable week-on-week, with a slight decrease in aluminum alloy spot prices [2]. - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC saw a minor increase, while spot prices remained stable; however, the production of polysilicon decreased by 200 tons to 31,000 tons, still at a high level [2]. Inventory - Social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons to 543 thousand tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period last year [2]. - Downstream industrial silicon inventory was stable at 221.5 thousand tons, and registered warehouse receipts totaled 49,874 hands, also stable week-on-week [2]. Price and Profit - As of September 19, the price in East China was 9,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a basis of -1,705 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 200 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, leading to a decrease in industrial silicon production profits week-on-week [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Later, be cautious about short - selling at low levels for PP, and it may be a volatile market in the medium - term [1] - Short - term demand improves month - on - month, but the cost side remains weak. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but there are also positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 6913, with a daily decline of 0.43%. The trading volume was 255,093, and the open interest increased by 19,156. The 01 - contract basis was - 193, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 23 [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of PP in North China was 6700 - 6860 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6920 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6690 - 6900 yuan/ton yesterday [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market declined slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Futures fluctuated at a low level, weakening cost support. Traders actively sold goods, and downstream demand was weak [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term demand improves, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase due to the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity expansion. However, there are positive factors such as holiday effects, potential Fed rate cuts, and uncertainties in the Middle East [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and slightly weak trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The main reason is that the expected increase in supply outweighs geopolitical risk factors [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - **Short - term (within one week)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Medium - term (two weeks to one month)**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2510 contract is expected to be volatile and slightly weak [1][5]. 3.2 Price and Market Performance - On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract slightly closed down 0.06% to 483.3 yuan/barrel, and the decline has slowed down [5]. - It is expected that on Friday, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract will maintain a volatile and slightly weak trend [5]. 3.3 Core Logic - The market is worried that OPEC+ oil - producing countries will expand oil production capacity again, and the increasing supply pressure outweighs geopolitical risk factors [5].

Core Viewpoint - The planned volume of petroleum asphalt in September is set at 2.593 million tons, representing an increase of 160,000 tons or 6.58% compared to August's planned volume [1] Supply and Demand - The September planned volume is expected to be the highest production level of the year, with a likelihood of a gradual decline thereafter [1] - The supply side is anticipated to continue exerting pressure on the spot market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical sector as a whole continues to oscillate, and the market is awaiting the introduction of specific anti - involution measures from China's petrochemical industry. Although there might be potential policy boosts, it's unclear how much of the supply will be reduced, making it difficult for the chemical industry to embark on a unilateral, independent, and profit - expanding upward trend. Investors should generally approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in China's petrochemical sector [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The US plans to double tariffs on all Indian imports to punish India for buying Russian oil, and India will maintain most of its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous shortage of fuel oil supply in Russia [2]. - The chemical market is in a wait - and - see mode for China's petrochemical anti - involution measures. The olefin industry chain has rebounded in the past two days due to South Korea's naphtha production cuts, but buyers are cautious. Crude oil and coal prices are oscillating, and the chemical industry is unlikely to have a one - sided upward trend [3]. 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. - **Main Logic**: API data shows a slight inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ supply is accelerating, US production remains high, and non - US non - OPEC+ output will increase steadily in the second half of the year. Refinery operations in China and the US may decline due to rising refined product inventories, making it difficult for oil prices to rebound. - **Outlook**: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [10]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. - **Main Logic**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The decline in crude oil prices has dampened the bullish sentiment in the asphalt market. The supply shortage problem has been significantly alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil prices rose and then fell. - **Main Logic**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased but then faced challenges from increased warehouse receipts and falling crude oil prices. There are also factors such as changes in import tariffs and demand. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [12]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It also faces supply increases and demand decreases, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited high - sulfur substitution demand space. Currently, it has a low valuation and will fluctuate with crude oil [13]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The price was disturbed by market rumors and rose then fell. - **Main Logic**: There is no clear cost - side guidance. Market rumors about a large - scale PX device production cut, later proven false, caused the price to fluctuate. In the short term, the low inventory provides support for prices and processing fees. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with attention to the support level of 6750 - 6800, and mid - line buying on dips is recommended [14]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month, and device maintenance is on schedule. - **Main Logic**: The cost side provides support, the supply - demand situation is good, and downstream polyester load is stable. The buying sentiment has led to increased sales, and the peak - season expectation still exists. - **Outlook**: Mid - line buying on dips, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [15]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows market sentiment, and in the medium term, it may return to the fundamentals of inventory accumulation. - **Main Logic**: Positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. South Korea plans to overhaul cracking devices, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub is high. Although the port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, the decline rate is slowing, and there are expectations of future inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: In the short term, sentiment dominates, and it may be strong. In the medium term, if no further anti - involution policies are implemented, it may return to the inventory - accumulation fundamentals [17]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows commodity sentiment, and with more maintenance, profits may expand. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory increased, causing prices to fall. However, news of capacity reduction in China and South Korea and multiple device maintenance plans have stimulated the market. Although the inventory pressure in East China restricts price increases, there are profit - expansion opportunities from September to October. - **Outlook**: Fundamentally, it is bearish, but short - term short - selling is against the trend due to factors such as production restrictions during the September parade and macro - policy releases [19]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Low inventory provides strong price support. - **Main Logic**: The cost side is supportive, the macro - chemical environment is favorable, and there is a peak - season expectation. Although domestic production is increasing, imports are decreasing, and terminal demand is gradually rising, maintaining a stable upward trend in polyester plant operations and an inventory - reduction logic. - **Outlook**: Price oscillation, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be exited [20]. Short Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It awaits cost guidance from upstream products. - **Main Logic**: With strong upstream performance, short - fiber prices follow the upstream. As the peak season approaches in September, there is an inventory - reduction expectation, and the processing fee is expected to have a lower - bound support, with the absolute price oscillating within a range. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows raw materials and oscillates in the short term [21]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Processing fees are continuously compressed, and profits are shifting upstream. - **Main Logic**: Upstream prices are strong, and polyester bottle - chip processing fees are passively following. With the peak season ending, there is an inventory - accumulation pressure, and processing fees are severely compressed. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, with the absolute price following raw materials [22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: In the near term, it focuses on the macro - environment, and in the long term, there are still overseas disturbance expectations, with the price oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The price oscillated downward on August 26. Some device restart expectations may affect cost transmission through freight increases. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. Although the policy news has boosted the market, the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas device shutdowns in the long term, long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Market news is calm, and the market is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The market fundamentals are stable, and the market is waiting for positive expectations. The spot price in some regions has fallen, but there is also a price - support expectation. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, waiting for the implementation of demand [26]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices fall, LLDPE oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: News of domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating, and the supply pressure persists. There is still capital - game in the macro - environment, and the consumption expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" exists. The LLDPE fundamentals are under pressure, with high production and inventory. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, with attention to the peak - season demand [30]. PP - **Viewpoint**: New capacity release and reduced maintenance lead to an oscillatory decline. - **Main Logic**: News of capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating downward, and the supply pressure persists. PP supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the start - up rate is lower than in previous years, with cautious purchasing. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [31]. PL - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, it follows the oscillation of PP. - **Main Logic**: The olefin market has been boosted by news from China and South Korea. The inventory of propylene enterprises in Shandong is controllable, and the price is stable. The downstream follows demand, and the market is affected by the macro - environment and coal - price rebounds. The processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [32]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is boosted, and PVC is weakly stabilizing. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an increased probability of overseas interest - rate cuts. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Production is decreasing due to autumn maintenance, downstream start - up is stable, export expectations are under pressure, and the cost is weakly stable. - **Outlook**: Wide - range oscillation, with market - sentiment improvement as the driving force and inventory accumulation as the pressure [37]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot - price rebound has slowed, and near - month long positions should be liquidated. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an，