Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a temperature check with a significant portion of the indices showing a long-term signal of 75% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have shown varying performance, with the latter two indices experiencing declines of 1.62% and 0.77% respectively [1] Sector Performance - The chemical sector has shown a strong rebound, with a notable increase in the index closing over 1% higher, driven by a net capital inflow of over 144 billion yuan in the past 60 days [4][6] - The media sector led the inflow of funds with 1.072 billion yuan, while the computer sector faced the largest outflow of 89.79 billion yuan [2] Investment Signals - The chemical and financial technology sectors are highlighted as having significant potential for investment, with the chemical sector benefiting from policy expectations and valuation recovery [6] - The recent implementation of the stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong is expected to create opportunities in the fintech sector, particularly for those obtaining the first batch of licenses [6] ETF Performance - The chemical ETF has shown a 10.60% increase over the past six months, indicating strong performance in this sector [4] - The financial technology ETF has also demonstrated robust growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and turnover [4] Future Outlook - The chemical sector's future performance will depend on actual improvements in the fundamental aspects of the industry, despite the current positive sentiment [6] - The fintech sector is expected to gain traction as stablecoin regulations take effect, with a focus on platforms that can create use cases for stablecoins [6]

对于尾盘集体翻红，市场交易人士认为，宏观情绪和产业基本面共振，市场对下半年基建、制造业需求 改善的预期强化；另一方面，美联储7月议息会议释放"年内不降息"信号，美元指数高位回落，以人民 币计价的工业品受外盘扰动减弱，资金回流意愿提升。 消息面上，工信部近日提到，巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效，加强光伏等重点行业治 理，以标准提升倒逼落后产能退出。光大期货指出，消息面提振下多晶硅带动工业硅偏强运行。 截至30日收盘，多晶硅期货主力合约收涨8.8%，盘中触及涨停，最终收报54770元/吨，较前一交易日结 算价上涨4455元/吨。为纯碱、玻璃、焦煤、锰硅、铁矿石等品种，也在收盘前扭转了下跌态势，纷纷 小幅收涨。 从领涨的多晶硅期货盘后交易数据看，截至当日收盘，主力合约增仓23852手。远月9个合约持仓大增， 截至收盘全部涨停。 多头回归？ 反内卷行情又有抬头迹象。7月30日，工业品期货尾盘集体拉涨，多晶硅期货稍作调整后重新反弹。 此前，"反内卷"行情火热，期货交易所密集出台风险提示和限仓措施抑制投机。过去一周，大商所、广 期所、郑商所已连发风险提示、提保扩版、交易限额等措施，涉及焦煤、焦炭、碳酸锂、工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and summarizes the long - short views and trading logic of various futures varieties [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From July 21 to July 25, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some commodities such as coking coal, glass, and polysilicon increased significantly, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. While the prices of some commodities such as corn, palm oil, and crude oil decreased, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 500 rose 3.28%, the Nikkei 225 4.11%, and the Hang Seng Index 2.27% [2]. - **Bonds**: The prices of Chinese treasury bonds (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year) all increased, with the 5 - year treasury bond rising 5.91%, the 10 - year 4.35%, and the 2 - year 3.28% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.99%, while the US dollar index fell 0.80% and the US dollar intermediate price fell 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects driving policy - based demand expectations, the fermentation of the anti - involution market, the rise of pro - cyclical sectors, and the increase in A - share trading volume. The bearish factors include the pressure of short - term profit - taking, potential regulatory measures, the reduction of ETF shares, and increased market risk aversion [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the central bank's loose liquidity policy, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the potential improvement of the bond market sentiment. The bearish factors include the stock - bond seesaw effect, the improvement of corporate expectations, and the expected fiscal expansion [4]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include strong fundamental demand in the peak season, potential interest rate cuts, tight Russian shipments, and a decline in US crude oil production. The bearish factors include the peak refinery utilization rate, a stronger US dollar, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential return of Iranian supply [5]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the unexpected US biodiesel policy, increased domestic consumption in Malaysia, limited production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventories in India, and the support of Indonesia's B50 blending policy. The bearish factors include good production performance, lower - than - expected exports, and expected inventory accumulation in China [5]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the boost of the "anti - involution" policy, the recovery of global manufacturing PMI, long - term demand expectations from infrastructure projects, and low domestic copper inventories. The bearish factors include potential price fluctuations due to macro events, weak US manufacturing data, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential decline in copper prices following the weakening of the commodity market sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the stimulation of macro - policies, strong arbitrage demand, inventory reduction, and the approaching peak season. The bearish factors include speculative inventory accumulation, potential profit - taking, weak real - estate data, and potential supply increases [6]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the expectation of a Fed rate cut, increased risk - aversion demand, potential trade - related risks, policy uncertainty, and increased net long positions. The bearish factors include progress in trade negotiations, strong US economic data, the Fed's possible wait - and - see attitude, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include high molten iron production, macro - economic support, price increases in coke, and the recovery of coking plant production. The bearish factors include regulatory measures, the resumption of coal mine production, sufficient imported coal supply, and increased coking plant inventories [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2x, dropping from approximately 45% in early April to below 30% by late July, indicating a market trend towards eliminating low PB stocks [1][11][12] - Historical analysis shows that the complete elimination of 1-2x PB stocks occurred only during specific periods, such as 2014-2015, driven primarily by active leverage in the market [14][17][22] - The report identifies necessary but insufficient conditions for the systematic elimination of 1-2x PB stocks, including the continuous expansion of profit effects, influx of incremental funds, and alignment of fundamental expectations across various styles [2][26] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" phenomenon is characterized by a two-phase excess return path in heavy asset industries, transitioning from "ROA→, PB↑" to "ROA↑, PB→" [3][36] - The report references the previous supply-side structural reforms in 2016, where industries like coal and steel experienced significant price and volume reversals, driven by policy changes that addressed overcapacity [29][32] - Current core industries under the "anti-involution" theme include photovoltaic materials, cement, and basic chemicals, with a focus on selecting companies that maintain cash flow despite profit losses [39][43]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - The Japanese yen is under pressure due to political uncertainty following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the Senate elections, making a rebound difficult [1] - The US short-term yields are expected to support the dollar, with initial jobless claims data indicating a stable labor market despite some signs of weakness [1] - The Bank of Canada is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged due to sticky inflation and a resilient economy, despite soft economic data [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Two Federal Reserve officials, Bowman and Waller, are expected to vote against the consensus in the upcoming meeting, which may lead to a mild bullish reaction in the interest rate market [2] - The Bank of Japan may signal a shift towards a less dovish stance in its upcoming policy meeting, influenced by a recent trade agreement with the US that reduces uncertainty [4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-shares and Technology - CITIC Securities suggests that the A-share market is on an upward trajectory, with a focus on technology and non-bank financial sectors as potential beneficiaries of the bullish sentiment [5] - The report highlights sectors such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, non-bank finance, and renewable energy as key areas of interest [5] - The AI sector is expected to see accelerated adoption and integration into business operations, with significant growth potential in the coming years [8][11] Group 4: Automotive and Semiconductor Industry Insights - The automotive industry is poised to benefit from advancements in autonomous driving regulations, with Shanghai leading the way in high-level autonomous driving applications [9] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing increased demand for advanced processes due to the AI boom, with domestic manufacturers working to catch up amid supply chain challenges [10] Group 5: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The report indicates a shift towards industrialization in the restaurant supply chain, driven by efficiency demands and the rise of pre-prepared food products [16] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to present opportunities, particularly in the technology sector, which is seen as having significant recovery potential [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the market sentiment recovered, with the Sci - tech Innovation Board leading the rise. Small and micro - cap stocks remained active, and dividend assets with relatively strong defensive attributes also achieved positive returns. Among the dividend sub - sectors, the central and state - owned enterprise dividend series index had a more prominent performance, with an average increase of about 2.44%. The A - share industries continued to diverge, and the commodity market was strong under the "anti - involution" market. In the electronics sector, semiconductor equipment and optical components led the gains. The dividend and electronics enhanced portfolios had weak excess performance, but the electronics balanced allocation enhanced portfolio outperformed the median return of active technology funds [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Introduction of Active Quantitative Products - Since July 2023, the Yangtze River Quantitative Finance team has launched multiple active quantitative products such as the dividend selection strategy and the industry high - win - rate strategy. The active quantitative product weekly report is launched to track the performance of active quantitative strategies, including new strategy releases and the return performance of existing strategies [6][13]. 3.2 Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Dividend Series - Market performance: The market sentiment recovered, with the Sci - tech Innovation 50 and the Sci - tech Innovation Composite Index rising about 4.63% and 3.95% respectively this week. Small and micro - cap stocks were active. Dividend assets achieved positive returns, and the central and state - owned enterprise dividend series index had an average increase of about 2.44%. - Strategy performance: Although the central and state - owned enterprise high - dividend 30 portfolio achieved positive returns, affected by the cyclical product market, both dividend portfolios failed to outperform the CSI Dividend Total Return Index. Since the beginning of 2025, the offensive and defensive dividend 50 portfolio has an excess return of about 1.91% and ranks at about the 44th percentile among all dividend - type funds [7][15][21]. 3.2.2 Electronics Series - Market performance: A - share industries continued to diverge. The commodity market was strong, with raw materials and energy rising about 5.25% and 4.97% respectively. The public utilities and financial sectors significantly corrected. In the electronics sector, semiconductor equipment and optical components rose about 6.59% and 5.10% respectively, far ahead of other sub - tracks. - Strategy performance: This week, the electronics balanced allocation enhanced portfolio achieved positive returns and outperformed the median return of active technology funds, but both electronics portfolios failed to outperform the electronics total return index. Since the beginning of 2025, both portfolios have outperformed the electronics industry index, with excess returns of about 1.96% and 2.98% for the electronics balanced allocation enhanced portfolio and the electronics sector preferred enhanced portfolio respectively [7][24][31].

Market Overview - The stock market has shown a rebound in risk appetite, with A-shares approaching the 3600-point mark, leading to a significant reaction in the bond market [1][2] - The yield on 10-year government bonds reached a low of 1.655% before rising sharply to 1.7325% by the end of the week, indicating a strong upward trend in bond yields [1][2] Commodity Market - Commodity futures prices have surged, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 7.21% to a new high of 77240 yuan/ton, and polysilicon prices rising by 5.15% to 55605 yuan/ton, reflecting strong market demand [2] - The "anti-involution" trend has been a driving force behind these price increases, as government policies aim to regulate excessive competition and promote fair pricing [2] Fund Redemption Trends - Recent data indicates that the redemption of pure bond funds on July 24 was significantly higher than in February, marking one of the largest redemption waves since October of the previous year [3] - The bond market is experiencing a notable sell-off, but the selling volume has not led to excessive panic, suggesting a controlled market response [5] Investment Strategies - Some fund managers view the current bond market pullback as a buying opportunity, particularly in 30-year government bonds, while others express concerns about the increasing difficulty of bond market allocations due to a recovering stock market [4][7] - The current environment suggests that while the overall direction remains favorable for bonds, the volatility may increase, necessitating a more flexible investment approach [7] Policy Implications - Market participants are closely monitoring potential policy changes, with expectations that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology may soon release implementation plans for key industries to optimize capacity [8] - Given the recent GDP growth of 5.3%, it is anticipated that policymakers may not rush to introduce large-scale stimulus measures in the short term [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme volatility in the futures market, particularly referencing the "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016, and highlights the current trends in various commodities driven by policy expectations and market narratives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - The "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016 saw extreme fluctuations where commodities like cotton dropped from a limit-up of +7% to limit-down of -7% within minutes, showcasing the potential for rapid market shifts [2][3]. - The article emphasizes that the current market behavior reflects a similar pattern where narratives and policy expectations drive prices, often ignoring fundamental supply and demand realities [4][5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in sectors like new energy and construction materials, with notable price increases such as 57% for polysilicon and 33.4% for coking coal since July [31][32]. - The article notes that the futures prices are rising faster than spot prices, leading to a narrowing basis, which could indicate a potential correction depending on downstream replenishment intentions [32][34]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain dynamics are highlighted, particularly in the coking coal market, where the disconnect between upstream price increases and downstream demand could lead to market pressures [35][37]. - The article warns that high prices could suppress speculative demand and stimulate foreign production, creating resistance to further price increases [38]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The article discusses the implications of government policies on supply-side reforms, suggesting that past experiences with supply-side reforms will influence current market expectations and behaviors [40][41]. - It raises concerns about the potential for demand-side pain in the current economic environment, contrasting it with previous supply-side reforms that had stronger demand support [44].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the "anti - involution" market has been the main macro - logical line in the market. With the approaching of the Political Bureau meeting, investors need to be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market. Although there are expectations of a new round of supply - side reform, market differences are more prominent due to concerns about the global economic slowdown and the difficulty of strong demand - boosting policies during the economic transformation period. Additionally, the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may affect the capital market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market has dominated the market. The A - share market has approached 3600 points, and commodities show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, with hot spots constantly spreading. However, recent market fluctuations have been intense, and some varieties have seen excessive increases [1]. Market Analysis - The current commodity market started at the end of June and early July, based on low - valued absolute prices and driven by the "anti - involution" concept, potentially evolving into a new round of supply - side reform market. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the upcoming release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten - industry stable - growth plan have strengthened the market's policy expectations [2]. - There are three main investment opportunity lines from supply shocks in the second half of the year: "anti - involution" supply - side reform, supply disruptions caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and abnormal weather. But due to weak global demand, the upward trend will be a pulsed, phased, and structural market [2]. Market Characteristics - New energy varieties lead the way, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate taking turns to drive the market [2]. - The black building materials sector acts as the rear guard. Core varieties such as coking coal and glass have seen excessive increases and rapid growth rates. For example, from June 2025 to the present, coking coal has increased by 68.58%, and glass by 35.27% [2][5]. - The hot - spot varieties rotate and spread rapidly, from new - energy non - ferrous metals to black building materials, and then to lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. The leading varieties, coking coal and glass, have significantly higher increases and growth rates than historical markets [6]. Risks and Suggestions - Multiple exchanges have issued risk alerts due to the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and excessive increases in some varieties. As the important meeting approaches, policy games will face real - world tests. The repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may also impact the capital market. Investors should be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market [9].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" trend in various traditional industries including coal, oil, petrochemicals, steel, and construction materials, with a focus on the implications for investment strategies in these sectors [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Current Market Sentiment**: - Public funds are underweight in traditional sectors like coal and steel, while electricity equipment has seen a decrease in overweight positions. The "anti-involution" sectors have clean chips and potential for recovery [1][2]. - The market is currently characterized by high risk tolerance and sensitivity to favorable policies, supported by state-owned capital operations [3][4]. 2. **Policy Concerns**: - The main concern in the market is insufficient funding support, with the current "anti-involution" trend resembling a contractionary policy that may lead to a bottoming effect rather than a reversal [4][5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to implement growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel and petrochemicals, aimed at structural adjustments and phasing out outdated capacity [5][6]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - There is a suggestion to increase allocations in the chemical sector, particularly in leading companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Hengli Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies [9]. - In the communication sector, AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) is expected to benefit from stricter energy consumption approvals, leading to a healthier market for data centers [11][12]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Chemical Industry**: Lacks clear policy guidance but is seen as a sector with inherent elasticity. Companies like Hualu Hengsheng could see significant profit increases if the overall industry profitability improves [9][10]. - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is experiencing a significant shift due to overcapacity and poor profitability. The current utilization rate is around 86%, with expectations for policy-driven changes to improve the situation [16][18]. - **Aluminum and Nonferrous Metals**: The aluminum sector is facing overcapacity issues, while copper and lead smelting are under pressure due to low utilization rates. The industry is expected to stabilize as supply-side reforms take effect [17][18]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The public utility sector is anticipated to see an upward trend in electricity prices due to rising costs and the need for price adjustments after years of suppression [19]. - The coal and construction materials sectors are not expected to see a significant upgrade in supply-side reforms, but some contraction is likely, with coal prices showing signs of recovery due to increased demand [20][21]. Other Important Insights - The "anti-involution" policies are seen as a necessary response to the challenges faced by the manufacturing sector, which has been struggling with overcapacity and low profitability [7]. - The chemical sector is highlighted as having potential for growth despite the lack of clear policy direction, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their market position and resilience [9][10]. - The conference emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors and companies that can benefit from both policy support and fundamental improvements in the current economic landscape [6][8].