Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,140, up 0.26% for the day and 20.65% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.52% to 8,688, with a year-to-date increase of 19.79%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.67% to 5,248, reflecting an 18.25% rise year-to-date[3] Stock Performance - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong saw gains, with Kuaishou up over 3% and Alibaba, Meituan, and Tencent rising within 1%[9] - Bitcoin reached a new high of $123,000, positively impacting cryptocurrency-related stocks in Hong Kong, such as OKC Cloud Chain, which surged 46.24%[9] - NIO's stock rose over 10% following positive pre-sale pricing news for its new model, indicating potential profitability in Q4 2025[9] U.S. Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.20% to 44,372, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.27% to 20,586[9] - Notable movements included MicroStrategy up 3.78% and BIT Mining gaining over 10% amid a bullish cryptocurrency market[9] - Tech stocks showed mixed results, with Apple down 1.2% and Tesla up 1.08%[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index fell by 0.28% to 39,570, with declines in sectors like paper and transportation[12] - Long-term Japanese government bond yields rose to 2.620%, the highest since October 2000, indicating market concerns ahead of the upcoming elections[12] Economic Indicators - In June 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations[13] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a stable monetary environment[13] - China's trade with the U.S. saw a decline of 9.3% in the first half of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions[13]

Q&A 如何看待当前市场的反内卷行情及其阶段性表现？ 策略周谈 "反内卷"行情的三阶段 20250707 摘要 反内卷行情分为三个阶段：需求端驱动、供需差距显现、供给端出清预 期下的高估值。若无明确供给端出清信号，行情可能止步于第一阶段。 当前反内卷行情与 2016-2017 年供给侧改革不同，主要针对民企参与 的制造业，如光伏、汽车等，出清难度较高，强调有序退出，市场预期 兑现速度较慢。 2016 年煤炭股经验显示，供给侧改革文件发布初期超额收益短暂，煤 价上涨是第二波行情驱动，产能长期无法恢复的预期带来第三波超额收 益。 2016 年 2 月供给侧改革文件发布后，煤炭股在 2 月至 3 月间相对于沪 深 300 有约 10%的小幅超额表现，但很快回落。 第二段行情始于 2016 年 6 月，当时煤价开始小幅上涨，并在一个月内 完成主要涨幅。尽管下半年煤价继续上涨，但煤炭股未能超额表现。 第三段超额行情发生在 2017 年 5 月至 6 月，由于市场定价认为煤炭产 能长期无法恢复，因此预计煤价将维持高位。这段超额持续时间更长， 但也仅约两个月。 内卷行情通常分为三个阶段。第一阶段是炒预期，通常在政策或市场消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have experienced three consecutive days of gains, raising questions about whether this trend reflects a "de-involution" market or genuine improvements in supply and demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Iron ore futures have seen a notable increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - The recent price movements suggest a possible recovery in demand or adjustments in supply levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The article discusses the balance between supply and demand, questioning if the current price trends are sustainable [1] - There is speculation on whether the gains are driven by real market improvements or speculative trading [1]

行业比较专题 证券研究报告 "反内卷"行情的三阶段 核心结论：反内卷行情如果发展顺利，可能分为三阶段：第一阶段政策催化下 的预期（幅度可能较小），第二段定价资源品价格上涨，第三段定价资源品高 价横住的时间。目前投资者或预期类似 16-17 年供给侧改革带来的资源股行 情，但是目前行情尚在预期阶段，后续仍需观察政策落地和产能出清情况，如 果没有真实的出清，行情可能不会有后续两个阶段。 和反内卷类似，当年的供给侧改革也属于供给侧出清。我们认为，相比需求侧 驱动，供给侧驱动由于带有比较强的政策因素，市场调节机制相对弱化。因此， 供需趋紧的持续时间更长、预判难度较高。供给侧驱动的特征就导致股价行情 大概率是分阶段的。 复盘 16-17 年的供给侧改革行情，最典型的例子是煤炭的落后产能淘汰。我们 重点分析股价和煤价的关系，可以分为三阶段： 策略报告 | 投资策略 1）第一段是 2016 年 2 月供给侧结构性改革文件发布；尽管站在当时看历史 案例不多，但市场已有部分格局出清、煤价企稳预期，可以发现 16 年 2 月煤 炭板块相对沪深 300 有小幅超额行情。 2）第二段是 2016 年 6 月，当时煤价小幅上涨，但煤炭 ...