Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A-share market, and the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday, maintaining a volatile upward trend [17][19]. - For treasury bond futures, the profit-taking in the cash bond market is increasing, and investors should focus on structural opportunities. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - In the agricultural products sector, the price of soybeans in the US is rising, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The international sugar market is weak, while the domestic sugar market is relatively strong. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak, and the corn market is experiencing increased supply and weakening prices [22][25][28]. - In the black metals sector, steel and ore prices are rising in succession, but the upside potential is limited. Coking coal and coke have support at the bottom but face resistance when rising. Iron ore prices are expected to be bearish at high levels [56][59][61]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, precious metals are experiencing a downward adjustment due to the easing of risk factors. Copper prices are waiting for a breakthrough opportunity as downstream acceptance is currently insufficient. Alumina prices are bottoming out with potential production cuts in the future [67][71][78]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains. The cost of asphalt provides no positive support, and the supply - demand situation is weakening on the margin [16]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: The sharp rise in US stocks will reignite the sentiment in the A - share market. Although the stock index pulled back on Tuesday, the market is expected to resume its upward movement on Wednesday [17][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips without chasing high prices. Consider cash - and - carry arbitrage by going long on IM\IC 2512 and short on ETFs. Buy call options on the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index, the STAR Market 50 Index, and the ChiNext Index on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Investment Logic**: The profit - taking in the cash bond market is increasing. While the policy risk for going long on futures bonds has decreased, the potential for a continuous decline in treasury bond yields remains limited [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips. Consider shorting the inter - delivery spread or flattening the yield curve (TL - 3T) [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Investment Logic**: The upward movement of the US soybean market is driven by the improvement in the macro environment, but the international soybean supply pressure is still high. Domestic soybean meal prices have risen significantly due to cost factors, but the upside potential is limited [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [25]. Sugar - **Investment Logic**: The international sugar market is facing increased production in major producing areas, with a weak fundamental outlook. In the domestic market, the suspension of imports of some pre - mixed powders and the start of sugar mill operations are expected to support prices in the short term [26][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term but may rebound in the short - term. The domestic market is expected to be strong in the short - term. Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [28][29]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Investment Logic**: The production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October has slowed down, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil is slightly accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, providing some support for prices. The short - term trend of the oil and fat sector is slightly weak [30][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term. Consider going long on dips after the price stabilizes. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [33]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Investment Logic**: The supply of corn is increasing, and the price of the futures market is expected to be weak and volatile. The US corn market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the December CBOT corn futures on dips. Wait and see for the January contract. Wait for dips to go long on the May and July contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Live Pigs - **Investment Logic**: The short - term pressure on live pig supply has improved, but the overall inventory is still high, and the supply pressure remains. The price of live pigs is expected to face some downward pressure [37][38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short a small amount of contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. Peanuts - **Investment Logic**: The spot price of peanuts is falling, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. The new - season peanut quality is lower than last year, and the market is waiting for the supply to increase [40][41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the January and May contracts. Sell the PK601 - P - 7600 option [41]. Eggs - **Investment Logic**: The number of culled laying hens has increased, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term [42][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous short positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46]. Apples - **Investment Logic**: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, and the good - fruit rate is low. The cost of making apple warehouse receipts is high, and the inventory is expected to be lower than expected. The apple price has shown a strong trend recently, but the upward potential is limited [47][49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out previous long positions and wait and see. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Investment Logic**: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable. The demand side has not changed significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have reached a preliminary consensus, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong [52][53]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to be range - bound. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly strong. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - **Investment Logic**: The demand for steel is gradually recovering, and the inventory is shifting from the factory to the social level. The price of coking coal is rising, providing support for steel prices. However, the high inventory of plate products and the slowdown in capital release in the fourth quarter still pose pressure on steel prices [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel price is expected to be slightly strong and volatile. Go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Logic**: The price of coking coal is strong, and the second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The supply of coking coal is restricted by safety regulations, but the increase in imported Mongolian coal and the reduction in steel mill demand limit the upward potential of prices [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile at high levels. Close out long positions and consider going long on dips in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - **Investment Logic**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The domestic iron element inventory has been increasing since the third quarter, and the price of iron ore is expected to be bearish [62][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Ferroalloys - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment is fading, and the supply - demand pressure in the ferroalloy market remains. The production of silicon iron and manganese silicon is still at a high level, while the demand is affected by steel production cuts [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider shorting as the supply - demand pressure persists. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money straddle option combination [65][66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Investment Logic**: The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the expected cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict have reduced market risk aversion, leading to a downward adjustment in precious metal prices [67][69]. - **Trading Strategy**: The precious metal market may continue to adjust. Close out previous long positions and wait for a signal of the end of the correction. Aggressive investors can short with a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. Copper - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic sentiment has improved, and the supply of copper ore is facing more disruptions. The expected processing fee for next year is very low. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively tight, but the downstream consumption is weak, and the acceptance of high prices is low [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips and beware of short - term pullbacks. Hold a long position in the inter - market spread. Consider a long position in the inter - delivery spread after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Wait and see for options [74]. Alumina - **Investment Logic**: The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the pressure is increasing as the downstream inventory build - up is completed. High - cost alumina producers may face more cost pressure, and future production cuts are expected. The price is currently bottoming out [77][78]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to bottom out in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [78][79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Investment Logic**: The global trade situation is easing, and the macro - economic sentiment is positive. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and the domestic real estate completion area has shown a slight recovery. The medium - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to be strong [80][81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to be strong and volatile. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is improving, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The demand is resilient, and the low factory inventory supports the price. The short - term price of ADC12 is expected to remain firm [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of aluminum alloy is expected to be strong and volatile following the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [84]. Zinc - **Investment Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate market is tight, and the processing fee is decreasing. The supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to weaken as the peak season ends. The LME zinc price is relatively strong due to low inventory. The short - term trend is range - bound [85][87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close out profitable long positions and wait and see. Consider shorting at high levels if the export volume is low. Consider a long position in SHFE zinc and a short position in LME zinc based on the export situation. Wait and see for options [87]. Lead - **Investment Logic**: Some lead - acid battery manufacturers are reducing production to avoid inventory risks, while the supply of recycled lead is expected to increase. The lead price may continue to decline as the supply increases and the demand enters the off - season [89][91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions and beware of the impact of capital on the lead price. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell an out - of - the - money call option [91]. Nickel - **Investment Logic**: The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply - demand relationship is loose. The nickel price is expected to remain within a range [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Investment Logic**: The impact of sanctions on crude oil has been fully priced in, and the pressure of oversupply remains [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided in the text. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Investment Logic and Trading Strategy**: Each product has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. For example, asphalt has no positive cost support and weakening supply - demand on the margin; PVC is in a weak and volatile state; glass prices are rising due to improved sales and production [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading strategies for each product vary, including shorting, reducing long positions, and waiting and seeing [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][5] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to show strong oscillatory trends driven by macro sentiment [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are predicted to have wide-range oscillations [2][11] - Coke is expected to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][14] - Coking coal is supported by fundamentals and is likely to have a strong oscillatory trend [2][15] - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 792.5 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The previous day's position was 548,944 lots, a decrease of 9,902 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) increased by 6.0 yuan, PB fines (61.5%) by 4.0 yuan, and the price of Jinbuba (61%) decreased by 4.0 yuan. The basis of (12601, against Super Special) decreased by 6.0 yuan, and the basis of (12601, against Jinbuba) decreased by 10.3 yuan [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [4] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,091 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.49%. For hot-rolled coil HC2601, the previous day's closing price was 3,305 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.85%. Among spot prices, the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Beijing increased by 10 - 20 yuan, and the prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 10 - 20 yuan. The basis of (RB2601) increased by 19 yuan, and the basis of (HC2601) increased by 4 yuan [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the suggestions on formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development were released, which mentioned promoting the high-quality development of the steel industry. On October 23, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that the production of rebar increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil by 0.62 tons, and the total inventory of rebar decreased by 18.94 tons, hot-rolled coil by 4.27 tons. In September 2025, the national crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [7][9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5,564 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5,790 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. Among spot prices, the price of manganese ore increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The spot-futures price difference of ferrosilicon was -344 yuan/ton, and that of silicomanganese was -110 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in various regions was 5,100 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese was 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, and the southern quotation was 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. In October, the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises in Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanxi, and Chongqing was 37.5%, a decrease of 6.25% compared to September, and the output was expected to be 0.9 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons compared to September [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1,263.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 1.2%, and the closing price of coke J2601 was 1,779.5 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 1.3%. Among spot prices, the price of Jinquan Mongolian 5 coking coal increased by 25 yuan, and the price of Shanxi quasi-primary coke delivered to the factory increased by 50 yuan. The basis of JM2601 in Shanxi decreased by 15.0 yuan, and the basis of J2601 in Shanxi quasi-primary delivered to the factory increased by 28.0 yuan [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16] Logs - **Fundamentals**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price decreased by 4.2%, the trading volume decreased by 9.2%, and the position decreased by 49.1%. For the 2601 contract, the closing price decreased by 5.1%, the trading volume increased by 415.9%, and the position decreased by 11.7%. Among spot prices, most of the prices of various types of logs remained unchanged, with only a few showing slight decreases [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 28, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward suggestions on formulating the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, despite the short - term upward movement due to macro - factors, the overall situation of high inventory and supply surplus remains unchanged, and nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations [1][3]. - For the stainless steel variety, considering weak downstream demand, increasing inventory, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 122,150 yuan/ton and closed at 122,400 yuan/ton, a 0.34% change from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 129,533 (- 15,670) lots, and the open interest was 108,989 (- 12,453) lots. The nickel price was driven by macro - sentiment, with positive impacts from the Sino - US talks and the weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was stable, with most players adopting a wait - and - see attitude and prices remaining stable. In the domestic market, there was still a price difference between supply and demand sides. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area was entering the rainy season, and the northern mines were mostly starting tender sales. Some downstream iron plants wanted to replenish stocks but had a price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in October increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the mainstream premium remained at +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories were actively purchasing raw materials recently [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,300 yuan/ton, a 400 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand were slightly adjusted. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 29,780 (2970) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,238 (384) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 27, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,820 yuan/ton and closed at 12,815 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 158,384 (+20,953) lots, and the open interest was 115,124 (- 4,171) lots. Driven by the Shanghai nickel price, the stainless steel contract showed a slightly stronger oscillating pattern, with increased trading volume indicating a marginal increase in market participation. Technically, it showed oscillating repair characteristics, but there was pressure near 12,900 yuan due to the previous intensive trading area [3]. - **Spot**: The impact of macro - sentiment on the spot market was limited. Downstream buyers maintained a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, and actual transactions were mainly for low - priced goods, with limited price increases. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was between 255 and 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 928.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - The strategy for stainless steel is a neutral stance for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rebound in risk appetite, with prices showing an upward trend due to a decrease in port inventories and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 28, iron ore futures prices increased by 2.06%, reaching 793.5 yuan/ton [1]. - The total iron ore inventory at 47 Chinese ports is reported at 150.07 million tons, a decrease of 582,300 tons from the previous week [2]. - The total inventory at 45 ports stands at 143.11 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 577,300 tons [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Satellite data indicates that from October 20 to October 26, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased by 147,000 tons, continuing the destocking trend [2]. - During the same period, global iron ore shipments totaled 33.884 million tons, an increase of 548,000 tons [2]. - Iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports amounted to 20.843 million tons, down by 5.92 million tons week-on-week [2]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Analysts from Chao Dong Tian Cheng Futures suggest that while supply is increasing and demand remains weak, the recent drop in port inventories and improved macroeconomic conditions may lead to a short-term price increase [3]. - Hualian Futures reports that despite expectations of increased supply, the overall demand for iron ore is declining, and port inventories are likely to continue accumulating [3]. - Zhengxin Futures notes that the supply-demand structure is improving, with attention on the progress of the West Mangdu project, which may lead to increased supply [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - **Negative Information**: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Costs**: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - **Processing Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - **Import Situation**: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - **Social Inventory**: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Zinc [1] Report Date - October 27, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Analyst: Qi Yurong - Qualification Number: F03100031 - Investment Consultation Certificate Number: Z0021060 - Contact: 010 - 8229 5006 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Macro sentiment has improved, and overseas inventories have continued to decline. The backwardation structure of LME zinc has deepened, driving SHFE zinc to oscillate upward. However, domestic demand remains weak, and although social inventory accumulation has temporarily stopped, it is still at a relatively high level. There is still pressure on the upside of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Movement**: SMM 1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.56% to 22,120 yuan/ton; SHFE zinc main contract closing price rose 2.48% to 22,355 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 2.62% to 3,019.5 US dollars/ton [12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading - to - holding ratio, and various spreads in different regions and contract months are presented, but no specific summary data is given [14][16] 2. Winter Stockpiling + High Refinery Operation, TC Decline 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - **Port Inventory**: As of October 24, the inventory of imported zinc concentrate at Lianyungang Port was 150,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, etc. was 391,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,800 tons [25] - **Profit**: As of October 23, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,224 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4,008,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [32] - **TC**: The CZSPT group set the import processing fee for the fourth quarter at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton. Domestic TC has been declining, with the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee dropping from 3,650 yuan/metal ton in late September to 3,250 yuan/metal ton on October 24 [33][36] 2.2 Refined Zinc - **Production**: Zinc prices have rebounded, but TC has declined, and the production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to fall. As of October 23, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 694 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [44] - **Import**: The import profit window is closed. As of October 24, the import profit of refined zinc was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [47] 3. Demand Falling Short of Expectations, Slight Decline in Galvanizing Operation - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 0.57 percentage points to 57.48%. Black prices were lackluster, and terminal procurement was less than expected. Galvanizing enterprises reduced their operation to prevent excessive inventory, and some enterprises may further cut production [54] - **Inventory**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and cautious procurement by downstream users. Finished product inventory increased due to poor demand [57] 4. Poor Demand, Accumulation of Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Finished Products - **Price**: The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys increased. Zamak3 zinc alloy average price rose 1.51% to 22,815 yuan/ton, and Zamak5 zinc alloy average price rose 1.48% to 23,365 yuan/ton [63] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 53.13%. Terminal demand weakened, leading to a decline in alloy operation. Some enterprises arranged holidays to consume finished product inventory, and the sector's operation may further decline [66] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory increased as there were long - term order arrivals during the week despite high zinc prices and cautious procurement. Finished product inventory increased due to poor terminal demand and slow shipment [69] 5. Production and Sales in Balance, Slight Fluctuation in Zinc Oxide Finished Product Inventory - **Price**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% increased by 1.43% to 21,300 yuan/ton [77] - **Operation Rate**: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 0.77 percentage points to 56.36%. Some enterprises were affected by recent meetings, and the operating rate declined. It is expected to return to normal this week, and the operation rate may rise with the resumption of some enterprises that had holidays during the National Day [80] - **Inventory**: Raw material inventory decreased due to high zinc prices and relatively high prices of some raw materials. Finished product inventory increased slightly as enterprises basically maintained a balance between production and sales [83] 6. High Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - **SHFE and LME Inventory**: As of October 23, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,000 tons, with slight fluctuations. The inventory in Shanghai decreased due to fast downstream pick - up, while the inventory in Tianjin increased significantly due to more weekend arrivals, and the inventory in Guangdong reached a nearly three - year high. As of October 24, SHFE inventory was 109,200 tons, showing a decline. As of October 23, LME inventory was 37,600 tons, continuing to decline [92][95] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the situation of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from January 2024 to August 2025 [101]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The intraday view of methanol is strongly volatile, and the medium - term view is weakly volatile, with a reference view of strong operation[5]. - Due to geopolitical factors such as Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting and US sanctions on Russian oil producers, along with South American geopolitical risks, crude oil futures prices have gained premium support. There is a game between strong geopolitical expectations and weak supply - demand realities in the crude oil market. With positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks, the macro - sentiment has improved. The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile and stable trend on Monday[5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol Price and Market Conditions - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation in the night session on Friday, with the futures price slightly rebounding by 0.04% to 2279 yuan/ton[5]. Market Driving Factors - Geopolitical factors, including Trump canceling the US - Russia leaders' meeting, US sanctions on Russian oil producers, and South American geopolitical risks, have led to a premium in crude oil prices. However, the crude oil market still faces a weak supply - demand reality, with increased supply surplus pressure and a seasonal off - peak in demand, leading to an inventory accumulation cycle[5]. - Positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks have improved the macro - sentiment[5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: The polyolefin market rebounds driven by crude oil and coking coal, with its trend mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and cost fluctuations. Given many macro - level disturbances and limited supply - demand drivers, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading recently [7]. - **Long - term**: Despite continuous pressure on the PP supply side due to intensive production, new PP device production is relatively limited in Q1 2026, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. With an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up trend in the long run [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Cost side**: Crude oil rebounds due to geopolitical issues such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend because of supply - side factors like production cuts in some regions and reduced Mongolian coal customs clearance [1]. - **Supply - demand side**: In supply, unexpected PP device shutdowns increase recently, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but the large - scale PP production capacity makes it hard to fundamentally relieve the pressure. In demand, traditional PP downstream shows little change, but downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after continuous price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the overall pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Near - term strategy review**: A unilateral strategy of buying at low prices was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price range prediction**: The predicted monthly price range of polypropylene is 6500 - 7000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.43% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.7% [13]. - **Hedging strategy**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short PP futures and sell call options. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy PP futures [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Crude oil rises rapidly due to geopolitical issues; PP production lines of Inner Mongolia Baofeng and Zhongjing Petrochemical stop [19]. - **Negative information**: The 400,000 - ton device of Guangxi Petrochemical will start next week; Daxie Petrochemical's old production lines will stop [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session and the results of Sino - US trade policy negotiations [20]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: Since Wednesday, the PP disk rebounds driven by crude oil. This week, the position volume slightly declines, the top five short positions increase significantly, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats slightly increases [22]. - **Basis structure**: The PP disk rises rapidly following crude oil, while the spot price lags, causing the basis to weaken. As of Friday, the North China basis is - 122 yuan/ton, the East China basis is - 62 yuan/ton, and the South China basis is - 72 yuan/ton [25]. - **Spread structure**: The spread structure changes little, and the PP 1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to an optimistic macro - expectation [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - PDH devices maintain positive profits, with expected reduced unexpected shutdowns and increased operating rates. The profit of externally purchased propylene recovers, and the situation of suspending PP device sales of propylene is expected to decrease, increasing supply - side pressure and weakening cost support [32]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The follow - up supply - demand pressure is not significant. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in Q4 on the supply side, a high demand growth rate on the demand side (current apparent demand year - on - year growth rate is 11%), and limited PP import volume increase on the import - export side [41]. 3.5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 75.94% (- 2.28%). Many devices stop unexpectedly this week, resulting in a short - term supply reduction [47]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Side and Deduction - **Import**: Due to weak overseas prices, some low - cost PP sources may enter China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season limit PP exports, but some enterprises increase sales by reducing prices, leading to a surge in export orders this week [52]. 3.5.4 Demand Side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.376% (+ 0.52%). Although traditional PP downstream changes little, downstream speculative replenishment willingness increases after price drops, and post - National Day spot transactions are favorable. However, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].