1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Nickel - Refined nickel prices are high, stimulating production, but demand is weak. The nickel - iron market has a large psychological price gap between supply and demand, and transactions are weak. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and downstream purchases of nickel - sulfate are limited. Social inventories are accumulating. Overall, nickel prices are expected to fall first and then fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Stainless - steel futures have large fluctuations. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Steel mills are reducing production, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. The market is expected to be in a shock - adjustment state in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was weak last week. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is relatively optimistic. Social inventories are being depleted, and upstream inventories are low. The price is expected to remain in a relatively strong range, but may fall in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [8]. Copper - In the long - term, copper supply is restricted by capital expenditure, and demand is increasing due to AI - related grid upgrades, so the bottom price is expected to rise. In the short - term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing under the narrowing of CL premium. Attention should be paid to CL premium changes and downstream demand, with the main contract support at 101,500 - 103,000 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - Zinc ore shortages support prices. Although zinc ore port inventories are accumulating, smelter profits are under pressure, and demand is suppressed by high prices. The overall fundamentals are good, and the price downside is limited, with the main contract support at 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment. In the long - term, due to the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high price fluctuations. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply - demand is seasonally weak. It is expected that the ADC12 price will fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have risen sharply, driven by macro - factors and geopolitical risks, but have deviated from fundamentals. High prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and volatility decline before going long, with price support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon weakened slightly, and it will continue in February. Supply is expected to decline further. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to demand changes [17]. Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are weak. Production is expected to decrease, and the inventory accumulation slope is slowing down. The 45,000 yuan/ton level is expected to have support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.25% to 146,150 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of futures decreased by 515.79% to - 1,638 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 0.69% to 14,400 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 405.88% to 430 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 4.46% to 160,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 286.79% to 12,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 104,410 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 45.25% to 3,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.98% to 25,790 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 317 yuan/ton to - 2,126 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.27% to 428,650 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 4.65% to - 10,538.60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.81% to 24,350 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan broken primary aluminum increased by 16.73% to 3,174 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.80% to 24,660 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss increased by 302.8 yuan/ton to - 1,779 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 183.33% to - 75 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 2.29% to 51,300 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 31.44% to 4,160 yuan/ton [18]. Month - to - Month Price Difference - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 390 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 155 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 increased by 245 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract increased by 1.88% to 8,955 yuan/ton; the difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 775 yuan/ton to - 1,230 yuan/ton [18]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 9.06% to 25,396 tons [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.82% to 45.77 million tons [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 99,200 tons; total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 64,560 tons [8]. - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 6.85% to 67.33 million tons [9]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons; China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.35% to 11.72 million tons [13]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports remained unchanged at 17,637 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 7.70% to 10,468 tons [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons; recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 2.11% to 4.64 million tons [15]. - **Aluminum**: In January, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 738.56 million tons; China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25% to 78.2 million tons [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 55.4 million tons [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons; polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.3 million tons [18].

发期货页 场。在任何 何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成肤 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货 分析方法: 具附属 经常主要将经济 网 哈自拍 下得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 2026年2月2日 Z0019938 | | 原 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 江苏均价 8670 8790 -120 -1.37% 现价 | | 期份 Y2605 8282 8382 -100 -1.19% | | 募差 Y2605 388 408 -20 -4.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+400 05 + 410 -10 - | | 仓单 25960 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9240 9370 -130 -1.39% | | 期价 P2605 9240 9362 -122 -1.30% | | 基差 P2605 0 8 -8 -100.00% | | 现货基差报价 广 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The 2 - month CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI monthly spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB monthly spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The freight rate increased significantly due to North American cold snaps and the tense Iranian situation. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures, but domestic downstream profits are poor and pre - holiday inventory reduction weakens the support for spot prices. The current internal basis is weak, the monthly spread valuation is neutral, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog LPG Price Data - From January 26 - 30, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylation oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. The daily changes were - 10, 5, 50, 5, - 5, - 1, 70, 50, - 51, and 63 respectively [1] Market Indicators - The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 monthly spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). Warehouse receipts were 5867 hands (- 31), with a reduction of 31 from Haiyu Petrochemical. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11) [1] Profit and Operating Rate - China's PDH profit to produce propylene was - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct) [1] Price Premium and Discount - The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6) respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, methanol is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with limited upside and downside potential [2][4]. - Macro - level factors include Trump's agreement information reducing the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of Wash as Fed Chair causing a decline in precious metals and a weak overall macro - sentiment. However, strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol [4]. - Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices [4]. - In terms of valuation, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and the production profit is continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. The cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol plants in Henan provides support for the lower valuation of methanol [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary (Supply, Demand, Inventory) Supply - From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a 1.43% week - on - week increase. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current level [4]. Demand - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly as the load of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant increased [4]. - Traditional downstream: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant is expected to shut down next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu are expected to shut down for maintenance, and plants like Shandong Lianyi may continue to reduce their loads, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there is no clear shutdown plan for the next period, and some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to the recovery of load - reducing plants and the impact of high liquid chlorine prices on production facilities [4]. Inventory - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, an 11.50% week - on - week increase [4]. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.00% week - on - week increase. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. 191,400 tons of foreign vessels were unloaded in East China during the period. In Jiangsu's main storage areas along the Yangtze River,提货 decreased, and although an olefin plant in Zhejiang restarted, inventories still accumulated due to the supply of foreign vessels. In South China, only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment was available in Guangdong, and the main storage areas'提货 decreased. Since there was no supply from foreign vessels, inventories decreased. In Fujian, there was no unloading during the week, and inventories also decreased [4]. 3.2 Price and Spread - The report presents multiple charts showing the trends of basis, monthly spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences of methanol from 2020 - 2026 [7][8][9][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - The report shows the trends of methanol production, capacity utilization rates by region and process, import - related data (import volume, cost, arrival volume, and profit), production costs, and production profits from 2018 - 2026 [25][27][35][39][42] 3.4 Demand - The report shows the trends of capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (such as MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.), production profits of downstream industries, and procurement volumes and inventories of downstream industries from 2018 - 2026 [47][55][63][73] 3.5 Inventory - The report shows the trends of methanol factory inventories (by region) and port inventories (by region) from 2018 - 2026 [78][83] 3.6 Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term high - level fluctuations, with resistance at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton for the 05 contract and support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period: The 5 - 9 monthly spread may show a positive spread pattern [4]. - Inter - variety: The spread between MA and PP is in a fluctuating pattern [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is high - level oscillation, with limited upside and downside potential. Macroscopically, Trump's agreement information reduces the probability of geopolitical conflicts, and the nomination of the Fed chair causes a decline in precious metals, leading to a weak macro sentiment. However, the strong international energy prices support the downside of methanol. Fundamentally, the short - term supply - demand pattern of methanol is weak, and high port inventories suppress the upside of prices. [2][4] - In terms of valuation, the current MTO fundamentals are weak, and production profits are continuously compressed. The range of 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton is a strong fundamental resistance level. If methanol continues to rebound, the probability of negative feedback from MTO (coastal MTO factories) will increase. The lower valuation of methanol mainly refers to the cash - flow cost line of coal - based plants in Henan. The coal price increase in the fourth quarter stabilizes the cash - flow cost line of coal - based methanol at around 2000 - 2050 yuan/ton, providing support to the lower valuation. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Methanol Summary - **Supply**: From January 23 - 29, 2026, China's methanol production was 2037735 tons, an increase of 28820 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a week - on - week increase of 1.43%. Next week, production is expected to be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to be about 92.98%, higher than the current period, as the planned restored capacity exceeds the capacity for maintenance and production cuts. [4] - **Demand**: - **Olefins**: The operating rate of the MTO industry increased slightly with the load increase of Ningbo Fude's MTO plant. - **Traditional downstream**: For dimethyl ether, the Xinxiang Xinlianxin plant may stop production next week, reducing supply and potentially lowering the overall capacity utilization rate. For glacial acetic acid, there are no planned maintenance activities next week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. For formaldehyde, plants such as Xinxing Chemical and Gushi Huanyu may stop for maintenance, and Shandong Lianyi may further reduce the load, so supply is expected to decrease and the capacity utilization rate may decline. For chlorides, there are no clear plans for plant shutdowns, but some plants may restart, so the domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to rise. [4] - **Inventory**: - As of 11:30 on January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's sampled methanol producers was 424100 tons, a decrease of 14200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.24%; the pending order volume of sampled enterprises was 265700 tons, an increase of 27400 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 11.50%. - As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1.4721 million tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.00%. Port inventories continued to accumulate, mainly in East China. There were 191400 tons of foreign vessel discharges, all in East China.提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu weakened, and although there was an olefin plant restart in Zhejiang, inventories still accumulated due to the supply from foreign vessels. In South China, there was only a small amount of domestic trade replenishment in Guangdong, and the mainstream storage areas'提货 weakened, resulting in inventory reduction due to the lack of foreign vessel supply. In Fujian, there were no discharges, and inventories also decreased. [4] - **Strategy**: - **Unilateral**: Short - term high - level oscillation, with the upper resistance for 05 contract at 2350 - 2400 yuan/ton and the lower support at 2150 - 2180 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 9 spread may show a positive spread pattern. - **Inter - commodity**: The spread between MA and PP is in an oscillatory pattern. [4] 3.2 Price and Spread - Multiple graphs show the trends of methanol's basis, month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipts, domestic and international spot prices, and port - inland price differences from 2020 to 2026, including the basis of methanol on CZCE, 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 month - to - month spreads, warehouse receipt quantity, domestic low - end prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, international CFR prices in China and Southeast Asia, FOB price in Rotterdam, and price differences between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, etc. [7][12][16][20] 3.3 Supply - **Methanol Production and Operating Rate**: Graphs display the daily production and capacity utilization rates of methanol in China and abroad, as well as the weekly production in the Northwest region from 2018 to 2026. [25] - **Methanol Production by Process**: Graphs present the weekly production of methanol from different processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, and coal co - alcohol) in China from 2018 to 2026. [27][28][29] - **Methanol Operating Rate by Region**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol in different regions (Northwest, Southwest, East, and Central China) from 2018 to 2026. [30][31][32] - **Methanol Import - related**: Graphs show the monthly import volume, import cost, weekly arrival volume, and import profit of methanol in China from 2020 to 2026. [34][35][36][37] - **Methanol Cost and Profit**: Graphs display the daily production costs and profits of methanol from different processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, Shandong, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, and natural gas - based in Chongqing) from 2020 to 2026. [38][41] 3.4 Demand - **Methanol Downstream Operating Rate**: Graphs show the daily capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, etc.) in China from 2020 to 2026. [46][47][48][50] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Graphs present the daily production profits of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu, etc.) from 2020 to 2026. [53][54][55][58] - **MTO Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs display the procurement volumes of MTO production enterprises in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Central China) from 2020 to 2026. [62][63][64][65] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Procurement Volume by Region**: Graphs show the raw material procurement volumes of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (North, East, and Southwest) from 2020 to 2026. [67][68][69][70] - **Traditional Downstream Methanol Raw Material Inventory by Region**: Graphs display the raw material inventories of traditional downstream methanol manufacturers in China and different regions (Northwest, Shandong, and South) from 2020 to 2026. [72][73][74][75] 3.5 Inventory - **Methanol Factory Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly factory inventories of methanol in China and different regions (East, Northwest, and Inner Mongolia) from 2018 to 2026. [77][78][79][80] - **Methanol Port Inventory**: Graphs present the weekly port inventories of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong) from 2018 to 2026. [82][83][84]

2026 年 2 月 1 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 本轮镍与不锈钢的核心博弈在于印尼镍政策方面，基于事件的角度： 1）配额事件：印尼能矿部表示配额将根据行业需求进行调整，目标或削减至 2.5-2.6 亿吨镍矿配额。 点评：2024-2025 年的配额量确实超过实际冶炼刚需量，2026 年对需求的重新梳理和配额的重新审视仍 在进行中，目前仍在等待具体政策落地前的真空期，预计一季度或将明确具体政策。如果放眼到长周期， 印尼防止过剩和挺价的心态是明确的，前期低价矿吸引冶炼的红利周期结束，在冶炼端产能过剩后，政策 面或出现周期性的转向。如果 1-12 月目标配额落地，那么矿端紧缺可能倒逼冶炼端减产，从而将过剩预 期扭转为紧缺，并对存量的高库存形成冲击，这也是二级市场对上方仍有想象的核心锚点。不过，从印尼 下游政策的角度来看，若矿端采取激进的"一刀切"方式，易于激化与下游外资冶炼企业的矛盾，产业普 遍认为印尼难有绝对的政策，更关注动态的利益。因此，二级市场和产业双方在印尼 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing a decline in futures prices, with the main contract dropping significantly by 5.34% to 422,010.00 CNY/ton as of January 30 [1] Group 1: Market Inventory and Supply - As of January 23, 2026, the national social inventory of tin ingots in major markets reached 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from the previous week [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported a registered tin warehouse receipt of 6,895 tons, with 200 tons canceled, remaining unchanged, and total tin inventory increasing by 35 tons to 7,095 tons [2] - Tin concentrate processing fees have been raised to 1,850 CNY/ton, with Yunnan's 40% tin concentrate and Jiangxi's 60% tin concentrate processing fees reaching 14,050 CNY/ton and 10,250 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Ruida Futures, the macroeconomic environment is influenced by U.S. Senate voting on funding bills and positive outcomes from UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China [3] - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season are expected to increase domestic tin ore imports in the first quarter, alleviating the tight supply situation [3] - The smelting sector is facing low raw material inventories, with many companies operating at a loss, and production is expected to face pressure to increase after the New Year [3] - Demand from the AI sector is anticipated to significantly boost solder demand, while recent price increases have led to stable inventory levels and a current spot premium of 500 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Recommendations - Newhu Futures notes that tin prices have diverged significantly from the fundamentals, with many downstream companies reducing or halting production [4] - The supply side remains stable, with an increase in tin concentrate supply, while overall inventory levels are not high [4] - The current market is driven by macroeconomic sentiment, with rising precious metal prices influencing tin prices; short-term price movements may be upward, and a cautious approach is recommended for high-price chasing [4]