黑色产业链日报 2025/12/12 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will remain strong throughout the year. Hold existing long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips during price corrections. Monitor macro - level changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply pressure eases, and the price is expected to move higher in the short term. Pay attention to the December FOMC meeting [4]. Copper - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the price bottom. Focus on the range of 90,000 - 91,000 yuan/ton [6]. Aluminum - Alumina is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations, with the reference range for the main contract moving down to 2550 - 2800 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after price surges [8]. Industrial Silicon - It is expected that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips if the price drops to 8500 - 8700 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures are likely to oscillate at high levels, but considering the weak demand, the probability of the futures price falling to converge with the spot price is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see trading strategy [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Monitor the improvement in scrap aluminum supply and downstream procurement patterns [11]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Monitor the implementation of steel - mill production cuts and raw - material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. Consider the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices and Basis - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 800 yuan/ton to 314,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.25%. SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 715 yuan/ton to 92,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.78%. The premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 170 yuan/ton to 21,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.59% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 21,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.46% [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 120,200 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.12%. The premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 4950 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%. The basis increased by 90 yuan/ton to 460 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.54%. The basis decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 92,750 yuan/ton [17]. Inter - monthly Spreads - **Tin**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, a rise of 36.36% [1]. - **Zinc**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [4]. - **Copper**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 8830 yuan/ton to - 8675 yuan/ton, a decline of 5696.77% [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The spread between the main contract and the first - continuous contract decreased by 525 yuan/ton to 2655 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.51% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 1500 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data Tin - In October, tin ore imports increased by 2918 tons to 11,632 tons, a rise of 33.49%. SMM refined tin production in October increased by 2580 tons to 16,090 tons, a rise of 53.09% [1]. Zinc - In November, refined zinc production decreased by 2.20 million tons to 59.52 million tons, a decline of 3.56%. In October, refined zinc imports decreased by 0.38 million tons to 1.88 million tons, a decline of 16.94% [4]. Copper - In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.15 million tons to 110.31 million tons, a rise of 1.05%. In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 5.22 million tons to 28.21 million tons, a decline of 15.61% [6]. Aluminum - In November, alumina production decreased by 34.6 million tons to 743.94 million tons, a decline of 4.44%. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 10.6 million tons to 363.66 million tons, a decline of 2.82% [8]. Industrial Silicon - National industrial silicon production decreased by 5.05 million tons to 40.17 million tons, a decline of 11.17%. The national operating rate decreased by 3.30 percentage points to 64.82% [9]. Polysilicon - Weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.18 million tons to 2.58 million tons, a rise of 7.50%. Monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.94 million tons to 11.46 million tons, a decline of 14.48% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.7 million tons to 68.20 million tons, a rise of 5.74%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.7 million tons to 30.27 million tons, a rise of 5.84% [11]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 3453 tons to 33,345 tons, a decline of 9.38%. Refined nickel imports decreased by 18,626 tons to 9741 tons, a decline of 65.66% [13]. Stainless Steel - The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 1.30 million tons to 178.70 million tons, a decline of 0.72%. The production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.15 million tons to 42.35 million tons, a rise of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3090 tons to 92,350 tons, a rise of 3.35%. Lithium carbonate demand increased by 6490 tons to 133,451 tons, a rise of 5.11% [17]. Inventory Changes Tin - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 206 tons to 6865 tons, a rise of 1.96%. Social inventory increased by 187 tons to 8012 tons, a rise of 2.39% [1]. Zinc - China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 0.83 million tons to 13.60 million tons, a decline of 5.75%. LME inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 5.8 million tons, a rise of 4.29% [4]. Copper - Domestic social inventory increased by 0.13 million tons to 16.03 million tons, a rise of 0.82%. Bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons to 7.75 million tons, a decline of 12.82% [6]. Aluminum - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons to 59.50 million tons, a decline of 0.17%. LME inventory decreased by 0.3 million tons to 52.6 million tons, a decline of 0.47% [8]. Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.34 million tons to 12.38 million tons, a rise of 2.82%. Social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 55.80 million tons, a rise of 1.45% [9]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.00 million tons to 29.10 million tons, a rise of 3.56%. Silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.80 million tons to 21.30 million tons, a rise of 9.23% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.03 million tons to 5.53 million tons, a decline of 0.54% [11]. Nickel - SHFE inventory increased by 1726 tons to 42,508 tons, a rise of 4.23%. Social inventory increased by 1499 tons to 26,848 tons, a rise of 2.71% [13]. Stainless Steel - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.04 million tons to 49.20 million tons, a decline of 2.06%. The 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.44 million tons to 29.82 million tons, a decline of 1.44% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 19,674 tons to 64,560 tons, a decline of 23.36%. Downstream inventory decreased by 11,261 tons to 42,030 tons, a decline of 21.13% [17].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that the current surge in industrial metal prices driven by macro sentiment is about to retreat, leading to significant market differentiation, with aluminum, lithium, and iron ore expected to see price declines by 18%, 23%, and 17% respectively by the end of 2026, while copper remains strong due to supply constraints and robust structural demand from sectors like power grids and AI [1][3]. Copper - Copper is viewed as the only metal with a positive outlook, with a price floor around $10,000 per ton due to structural demand from power grid upgrades and AI infrastructure [3][5]. - Supply constraints are highlighted, with accidents at major copper mines revealing challenges in old mines and complex geology, limiting supply growth and supporting copper prices [6]. - Strong demand is driven by strategic investments in power infrastructure, with expectations that over 60% of copper demand growth will come from this sector by 2030 [7]. - A short-term catalyst includes potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper, leading to preemptive stockpiling by traders, tightening supply outside the U.S. [7]. - Despite recent price spikes, the increase is based on future expectations rather than current fundamentals, with predictions of a 500,000-ton surplus in 2025, narrowing to 160,000 tons in 2026 [7]. Aluminum - The aluminum market faces a dual challenge of oversupply and demand risks, with Goldman Sachs recommending a short position [8]. - A supply surge is anticipated due to high prices stimulating new capacity, particularly from Indonesia and India, leading to a projected 1.1 million ton surplus by 2026 [8]. - Demand is threatened by substitution risks, as manufacturers shift from aluminum to cheaper steel in automotive production due to rising aluminum prices [8]. - Price forecasts suggest LME aluminum prices could drop to $2,350 per ton by Q4 2026 [9]. Lithium - Recent rebounds in lithium prices are viewed as temporary, with Goldman Sachs predicting a return to a surplus by the second half of 2026 [10]. - Short-term tightness is attributed to strong demand for energy storage systems and supply disruptions in China [10]. - By the end of 2026, lithium prices are expected to decline by 23% to around $9,500 per ton [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market's fundamentals have deteriorated significantly, with a bleak outlook for 2026 [11]. - A projected increase of 51 million tons in Chinese port inventories is expected by 2026, alongside supply increases from Australia, Brazil, and Guinea [12][13]. - Global seaborne iron ore demand is anticipated to decline by 1%, with Chinese steel production expected to drop by 2% [12]. - Price predictions indicate that iron ore prices could fall to $88 per ton by the end of 2026 [14]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a strategy of "distilling the truth" for investors in 2026, advocating for long positions in copper due to its structural shortage while avoiding or shorting aluminum, lithium, and iron ore, which face significant supply pressures [14].

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21430，基差-180，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌8439吨至115277吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡运行 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 逻辑： 利空： 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 上海 昨日上 | 中间价 中间价 70770 | 涨跌 涨跌 -375 | 库存 | 类型 类型 仓单 仓单 ...

有色金属：短期宏观情绪影响强于基本面 20251130 摘要 有色金属价格受工业金属属性和流动性影响显著，近期金属、股债及加 密货币普涨反映市场流动性预期变化。未来两个月，有色金属价格预计 维持震荡，春节前后补库行情或成上涨催化剂，美联储降息政策不确定 性增加市场风险，建议避免追涨杀跌，逐步配置低估值个股。 白银因其工业属性和流动性敏感度，在降息周期中表现突出，被视为 2026 年最被看好的品种之一。铜价虽突破 11,000 美元，但高价抑制 下游需求。交易结构显示标准品紧缺易引发阶段性行情，基本面仍处供 需双弱平衡，建议关注 11,000 美元支撑位，逐步配置低估值个股。 黄金上周突破 4,200 美元，涨幅相对克制，隐含波动率高表明资金博弈 偏多。预计未来两月黄金或平台整理，复刻 4-5 月底部抬升行情，底部 整理平台应在 4,000 美元以上。波动率下降后，可配置具有确定成长性 的黄金矿业公司。 电解铝需求自 9 月起光伏需求有所回落，行业进入调整期，需关注基本 面及下游需求恢复情况。电解铝和铝棒需求保持稳定，库存略有减少， 储能和两轮车为新的增长点，预计供需格局将持续至明年。吨铝毛利率 维持高位，市场 ...

01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 宏观情绪转暖， 锌锭延续宽松 锌周报 2025/11/29 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收涨0.04%至22436元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.89万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌9至 3037美元/吨，总持仓22.24万手。SMM0#锌锭均价22370元/吨，上海基差50元/吨，天津基差-10元/吨，广东基差-15元/吨，沪粤 价差65元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至15.10万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.76万吨，内盘上海地区基差50元/ 吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-40元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得5.08万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得0.55万吨。外盘cash-3S合 约基差165.44美元/吨，3-15价差30美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.046， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-11-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多情绪回暖，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：由于近期美国公布的 9 月非农就业数据显著差于预期，导致宏观情绪转弱。近期 OPEC 最 新季度报告把三季度全球油市从"供不应求"直接翻转为"日过剩 50 万桶"，供应宽 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened. In the short term, as the overseas interest rate cut expectation rebounds, the market risk appetite increases, and the price forms a certain support at a low level. At the same time, the market expectation of real estate stabilization policies has increased, but the specific situation remains to be observed. The short-term steel price trend is relatively firm and operates in a range [3][9]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - Last week, the five major steel products continued to reduce inventory. The inventory decline of rebar expanded, and the fundamentals continued to improve. The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, and the pressure of inventory accumulation eased. Overall, the inventory pressure of finished steel products was limited, and the price tended to fluctuate within a range. The spot market was stronger than the futures market, and the basis of rebar widened [9]. - The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities showed an upward trend, and the prices of imported iron ore also increased slightly. The prices of coking coal decreased, while the prices of coke remained stable. In terms of futures contracts, the prices of some contracts increased, while others decreased. The positions of long and short sides in some contracts decreased. The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed different changes. The inventory of rebar decreased, while the inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The weekly production of rebar blast furnaces was 207.96 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.98% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.06%), and the weekly production of national hot-rolled coils was 316.01 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%). The blast furnace production of rebar increased, while the electric furnace production decreased [13][16][17]. - **Operating Rate**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 82.19% (a week-on-week decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year increase of 0.13%), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.13% (a week-on-week increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%) [23][27]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot-rolled coils both weakened on a week-on-week basis. The profit of rebar was -30 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 1 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 94 yuan/ton), and the profit of hot-rolled coils was -57 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 16 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 121 yuan/ton) [28][31]. - **Demand**: The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased slightly. The apparent consumption of rebar was 230.79 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 6.66% and a year-on-year increase of 2.41%), and the apparent consumption of hot-rolled coils was 324.42 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 3.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.73%) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar decreased, with both factory and social inventories showing a decline. The total inventory of rebar was 553.34 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.96% and a year-on-year increase of 24.32%). The inventory of hot-rolled coils changed from increasing to decreasing, with the social inventory decreasing and the factory inventory remaining stable. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils was 402.11 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.05% and a year-on-year increase of 27.56%) [37][40][41]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both improved on a week-on-week basis. In the automotive market, the production and sales of automobiles in October continued to increase both on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, setting a new high for the same period in history [46][49][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrival volume at ports increased. The iron ore price index was 103.71 (a week-on-week increase of 0.62% and a year-on-year increase of 0.94%). The shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2637.4 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 9.32% and a year-on-year increase of 3.52%), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2817.1 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 24.16% and a year-on-year increase of 22.63%) [54][58]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased on a week-on-week basis, while the port clearance volume increased slightly. The daily output of hot metal was 236.28 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 0.48 million tons), the port clearance volume of 45 iron ore ports was 329.92 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.91% and a year-on-year increase of 0.90%), and the inventory-to-sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.86 days (a week-on-week decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.56%) [59][63]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises also decreased slightly. The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 15054.65 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.50% and a year-on-year increase of 0.05%), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9001.23 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 0.82% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.87%), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 23.65 days (a week-on-week decrease of 5.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.05%) [64][69]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines increased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.94% (a week-on-week increase of 0.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.09%), and the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 18.82 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 5.45% and a year-on-year increase of 12.42%) [71][75]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased on a week-on-week basis. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was +37.3% (a week-on-week decrease of 35.52% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.64%), and the weekly transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 59% (a week-on-week decrease of 17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%) [76][78]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of coking enterprises was repaired, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +19 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 53 yuan/ton and a year-on-year decrease of 7 yuan/ton), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 71.71% (a week-on-week increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.67%) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The port inventory of coking coal decreased on a week-on-week basis, and the inventory of coking plants also decreased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 888.87 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 3.69% and a year-on-year increase of 18.02%), the coking coal inventory of steel plants was 797.30 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 0.88% and a year-on-year increase of 6.89%), and the port inventory of coking coal was 291.5 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.35% and a year-on-year decrease of 37.82%) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: The port inventory of coke decreased, while the inventory of coking plants increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.44 million tons (a week-on-week increase of 20.17% and a year-on-year increase of 7.87%), the coke inventory of steel plants was 622.34 million tons (remaining unchanged on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year increase of 4.48%), and the port inventory of coke was 193 million tons (a week-on-week decrease of 2.92% and a year-on-year increase of 8.93%) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: After the fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, the price remained stable for the time being, and the game between steel mills and coking enterprises continued. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1660 yuan/ton (a week-on-week decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 80 yuan/ton), and the ex-factory price of quasi-first-class metallurgical coke was 1540 yuan/ton (in Handan, remaining stable on a week-on-week basis and a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton) [97][102]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar widened, and the 1-5 spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils both increased. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar widened slightly, and the 1-5 spreads of coking coal and coke continued to shrink [104][108].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].