Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by leveraged funds and retail investors, with significant contributions from speculative and foreign capital, leading to a notable increase in market risk appetite [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - During the first week of January 2026, the A-share market saw a substantial increase, with the Wind All A Index rising by 5.1% and the average daily trading volume surging over 700 billion yuan to 2.85 trillion yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached a historical high of 2.61 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.53% of the total A-share market capitalization, placing it in the 96th percentile historically since 2021 [3][10]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has significantly improved, with net inflows of 155.7 billion yuan, marking the second-highest level in the past year [3][15]. - The activity of speculative funds has also increased, with an average daily trading volume of 31.4 billion yuan on the Long Hu List, reaching a six-month peak [3][17]. Group 3: Foreign Investment - Foreign capital has shown a renewed interest, with the average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increasing by 98.6 billion yuan to 327.2 billion yuan, representing an increase of 0.73 percentage points in trading volume share [3][19]. - Passive foreign capital has turned into a slight net inflow of 6.7 million dollars, indicating a stronger attraction towards technology sectors [3][23]. Group 4: Macro Liquidity - The central bank's significant net withdrawal of 166 billion yuan has not tightened market liquidity, as interbank market interest rates have declined, maintaining a loose monetary environment [6][8]. - The RMB exchange rate appreciated to 6.98 against the US dollar, with the 2-year and 10-year China-US interest rate differentials narrowing [9]. Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The ETF market has shown structural divergence, with a slight net outflow of 390 million yuan from stock ETFs, while industry-themed ETFs attracted a net inflow of 13.6 billion yuan [25][26]. - Broad-based ETFs faced significant net outflows, particularly from the CSI A500-related ETFs, which saw a redemption of 13.1 billion yuan [25].

Macro Insights - The current macro liquidity phase is expected to decline, with government bond growth and loan growth likely to marginally decrease, leading to a continuous decline in M2 year-on-year in Q1[1] - The recent slight increase in market volatility suggests that the most accommodative macro liquidity period is passing, which historically impacts asset valuations negatively[1] - The current economic cycle shows that the midstream sector is the most stable, as its demand is less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions, potentially benefiting from supply-side contractions[1] Asset Allocation - International experience indicates that current 10-year bond yields are still below reasonable international levels, while the stock-bond ratio suggests stocks have a comparative advantage in allocation[1] - If liquidity contraction impacts "expensive" assets, bonds may be considered "expensive" as long as the economic cycle continues to improve marginally[1] - The strategic view remains to favor stocks over bonds, maintaining a cautious stance on bonds[2] Market Strategy - The spring market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of limited pullbacks due to macro liquidity stability[3] - Key focus areas include real estate, exchange rates, local government meetings, local bond issuance, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[3] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, technology manufacturing, and cyclical sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals[3] Fixed Income Strategy - The expected net financing of government bonds in Q1 is around CNY 3.6 trillion, with January and March being peak months[4] - The demand for bonds is anticipated to be better than Q1 2025 due to the "opening red" effect from deposits and insurance premiums[4] - The bond market is expected to show a downward trend in yields, with a focus on ticket interest strategies remaining favorable[4]

Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate differential has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both increased, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [2][13] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remains balanced, with a narrowing of the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds [2][18] Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Overall market trading activity has continued to rise, with trading heat in sectors such as military, textiles, light industry, retail, and consumer services all above the 80th percentile [3][24] - The volatility of major indices has also increased, with sectors like communication, electric power, electronics, and chemicals remaining above the 80th percentile historically [3][31] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, although the liquidity indicators for the oil and petrochemical sector remain above the 80th historical percentile [3][36] Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electric power, and computers, while research interest in retail, oil and petrochemicals, automobiles, and home appliances has also increased [4][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in sectors such as real estate, transportation, chemicals, electric power, and machinery [4][21] - The proportion of stocks in the entire A-share market with upward revisions to their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts has increased, while the proportion of stocks with downward revisions has decreased [4][18] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded, while those for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have been adjusted up and down, respectively [4][23] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded significantly, with a notable net purchase of A-shares, particularly in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military, and automobiles [5][31] - The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in the top 10 active stocks has increased in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and automobiles, while it has decreased in electronics, communication, and electric power [5][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level since November 2025, with net purchases primarily in military, electric power, and media sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in electric power, public utilities, home appliances, and food and beverage sectors has increased [6][38] Active Equity Fund Positions - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant increases in sectors such as communication, electric power, and electronics, while reductions were seen in military and consumer services [7][45] - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large/mid-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [7][48] - New equity fund establishment sizes have decreased, with actively managed funds seeing a decline while passive funds have seen an increase [7][50]

Core Viewpoint - The current phase of macro liquidity being the most accommodative may be coming to an end, with expectations of a marginal decline in government debt growth and loan growth in the short term, potentially leading to a continued decline in M2 year-on-year in the first quarter [2][3] Group 1: Understanding Liquidity - Liquidity assessment includes two dimensions: the liquidity of the real economy and the liquidity of the financial market, where the former affects future price and profit trends, and the latter influences current capital market transaction volumes [6][14] - The two main factors affecting liquidity are the growth scale of M2 and the scale of residents' deposit migration [8][16] Group 2: Changes in Liquidity Conditions - M2 year-on-year growth may be declining due to the "escape from extraordinary" policy, with expectations that the marginal increase in government debt in 2026 may be less than in 2025, and a potential decrease in loan growth could further drag down M2 [9][22][23] - The recent increase in market volatility suggests that the probability of accelerated migration of residents' deposits is low, which may lead to a decline in macro liquidity [2][25] Group 3: Differences in Current Liquidity Conditions - The current phase of liquidity contraction differs from historical patterns in three key aspects: 1. The impact on corporate profits is different, as the midstream sector is currently the most stable, with its demand less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions [3][32] 2. The relationship between stocks and bonds has changed, with current indicators suggesting that stocks have a relative advantage in allocation compared to bonds [3][39] 3. The policy response may differ, as the current economic dynamics are more aligned with high-tech innovation and direct financing rather than traditional real estate and local financing platforms [3][41]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 宽松过峰，股债重估 ❖ 核心观点 1、由于总量政策"摆脱超常规"叠加央行"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量" 的表述，我们预计短期政府债增速和贷款增速或边际回落，这一过程或带来一 季度 M2 同比的持续下行。 2、考虑到近期市场波动率的小幅提升，居民存款加速搬家的概率不高的前提 下，M2 同比的回落会引致宏观流动性最宽松的时刻正在过去，历史经验来看， 这会对资产估值造成冲击。 3、但是本轮宏观流动性最宽松时段过去与历史相比存在三点不同： ①从基本面来看，当下基本面景气最确定的是中游，由于中游需求更依赖海外， 其景气相对独立，因此国内流动性的松紧对其需求影响不大，反而有助于其供 给侧的加速收缩。在这个视角下，国内流动性收缩对中游利润预期冲击不大。 ②从资产配置来看，绝对视角下，国际经验展示当下十债收益率仍低于国际合 理空间，相对视角下，我们的股债比价指标（股债夏普比率差值）仍显示当下 股票更具配置优势。因此如果流动性收缩冲击偏"贵"的资产的话，只要经济 循环仍在边际改善，那么债券反而是当下"偏贵"的资产。 ③如果经济遭遇突发事件打破循环，国内政策有望随时加码改善流动性 ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of inversion in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have both decreased, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [2][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced. The yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds continues to widen [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with many indices experiencing a rise in volatility. Sectors such as retail, military, consumer services, light industry, and textiles are seeing trading activity above the 80th percentile [3][25] - Most indices have shown increased volatility, with sectors like communication, electronics, electric new energy, and chemicals remaining above the 80th historical percentile [3][32] - Market liquidity indicators have declined, with liquidity metrics across sectors remaining below the 70th historical percentile [3][37] Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals. The research interest in automotive, computing, communication, and chemicals is also on the rise [4][43] Analyst Profit Forecasts - Analysts have raised profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][51] - Specific sectors such as real estate, construction, coal, consumer services, and home appliances have also seen upward adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][51] - The profit forecasts for the CSI 300 and SSE 50 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards, while the profit forecasts for the CSI 500 have been adjusted downwards [4][51] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing a net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy-sell amounts in sectors like communication, non-ferrous metals, and consumer services has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, computing, and banking [5][29] - For stocks with holdings below 30 million shares, net buying has primarily occurred in computing, non-bank financials, and coal sectors, while net selling has been observed in communication, non-ferrous metals, and automotive sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has rapidly increased, reaching the highest point since November 2025. The net buying has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and communication, while net selling has occurred in non-bank financials, oil and petrochemicals, and retail sectors [6][35] - The proportion of financing purchases has increased in sectors such as consumer services, banking, and electric new energy [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, particularly those related to institutional investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, media, and consumer services, while reducing positions in communication, home appliances, and retail sectors [7][45] - The newly established equity fund scale has increased, with active funds seeing a rise while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to the CSI A500 index have been primarily net purchased, while sectors like military, electronics, and agriculture have seen net selling [7][52]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank's statement of "strong supply, weak demand" aligns with previous economic work meetings, indicating potential restrictions on loans for production sectors[2] - The emphasis on "optimizing supply, improving increment, and revitalizing stock" suggests limited credit growth for real estate and local financing platforms, while financing for high-tech innovative enterprises may continue to expand[2] - The central bank's focus on the timing of policy implementation indicates that if fiscal debt issuance accelerates, monetary easing may be coordinated, but if fiscal pressure is low, the focus may shift to structural adjustments[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Implications - The report maintains the view that loan growth and M2 growth are likely to decline, suggesting that the period of maximum macro liquidity may have passed, making further valuation increases challenging[2] - For equity assets, the supply-demand balance is improving, and the stock-bond Sharpe ratio indicates a preference for stocks, although valuation pressures are expected to increase[3] - The ten-year government bond yield may face upward pressure if monetary policy does not signal unconventional easing, with ongoing economic cycles and market risk preferences influencing this[3] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The removal of the phrase "preventing fund circulation" suggests that the central bank may have more flexibility to adjust monetary policy in response to significant economic downturns[2] - The central bank's focus on optimizing the structure of credit may lead to a decrease in loans for traditional sectors, impacting overall economic dynamics[5] - The anticipated marginal increase in fiscal debt in 2026 compared to 2025 may limit the scope for aggressive monetary policy adjustments[9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current interest rate hike space in Japan mainly comes from the triple improvement of inflation, finance, and interest rate structure, allowing the benchmark interest rate to be slightly raised from 0.75% to about 1% in the next 1 - 2 years. The policy divergence of "US rate cuts and Japan rate hikes" will narrow the US - Japan interest rate spread from about 300bp to 200bp, reducing the profit space of yen carry trades and triggering a re - balance of global assets. Overall, this round of interest rate and spread convergence is more likely to bring about a mild repricing rather than a systemic shock [2]. - The core feature of yen carry trades lies in its large - scale hierarchical liability structure rather than a single - direction yen short position. The entire liability pool consists of three parts: the upper layer is a few billion dollars in futures shorts with limited volume but high volatility; the middle layer is a highly leveraged liability pool of over 10 trillion US dollars formed through foreign exchange swaps, forwards, and swaps, which is most sensitive to interest rate spreads and fluctuations; the bottom layer is over 10 trillion US dollars in long - term overseas assets of Japan, with a slower adjustment rhythm. The middle layer, which is the largest in scale and highest in leverage, truly affects systemic fluctuations [3]. - Although the reversal of yen carry trades will trigger market fluctuations, the conditions for triggering a global liquidity shock are not fully met: Japan's interest rate hike rhythm is moderate, high - leverage positions have been cleared in advance, and the Fed's liquidity has not tightened. In the short term, it is more likely to see a temporary repricing of high - valuation and long - duration assets rather than a systemic stampede; only in the extreme scenario of Japan's continuous and significant over - expected interest rate hikes and a strong policy divergence with the US can the cross - asset liquidity risk be significantly magnified [4]. Summary by Directory From the Cause of Inflation to See Japan's Interest Rate Hike Space - Combining economic, inflation, and fiscal dimensions, it can be roughly outlined that Japan's current interest rate hike space is from exiting extreme easing to returning to a normal and slightly loose state. That is, in the next 1 - 2 years, it is feasible to slowly raise the policy interest rate from 0.75% to about 1%. However, extending to 1.5% - 2% or higher requires stronger growth and nominal income support. Otherwise, with the existing debt stock, market concerns about fiscal sustainability will heat up sharply. This round is more like multiple small - step interest rate hikes to around 1%, allowing the long - end to be repriced gradually, rather than an American - style continuous and large - scale interest rate hike cycle [8]. Monetary Policy Divergence, Yen Depreciation, and Yen Carry Trades - In the past five years, Japan's monetary policy has shown an obvious divergence from the global trend. While major economies have aggressively raised interest rates under the constraint of high inflation, Japan did not exit negative interest rates until March 2024 and only slightly raised interest rates by 25bp in January 2025, with a policy rhythm much slower than the global average. The monetary policy divergence has led the US - Japan policy interest rate spread to reach nearly 560bp at its peak in 2023, resulting in a significant strengthening of the US dollar and an accelerated depreciation of the yen since 2022. Japan's low interest rates, a significantly enlarged US - Japan interest rate spread, and the yen's depreciation have provided an excellent profit environment for yen carry trades and released liquidity globally through the path of borrowing yen and buying high - interest - rate assets. This is also the reason for the continuous rise of assets such as technology - represented stocks, commodities, and digital currencies in the past [10]. Yen Depreciation Pushes Up Japan's Inflation Pressure, Leading to Passive Monetary Tightening - The side effects of the continuous depreciation of the yen are forcing the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. On the one hand, the weakening yen has raised the prices of imported energy and food. Japan's high dependence on foreign countries means that imported inflation is inevitable. On the other hand, after 30 years of structural adjustment, changes in the labor market structure have led to a continuous increase in domestic wages. Japan's core CPI has been running above 2% since 2022, marking the end of the deflation era. In this context, the Bank of Japan's recent release of a clearer signal of interest rate hikes is a response to the rising inflation center and the risk of a wage - inflation spiral, aiming to stabilize the yen exchange rate and inflation expectations before the doubts about sovereign credit intensify [18]. Japan's High Fiscal Debt Reality Constrains the Upside Space of Interest Rates - Japan's "lost 30 years" is also the 30 years of large - scale fiscal stimulus. The fundamental reason why Japan has been able to maintain roughly controllable finances under the premise of a debt/GDP ratio exceeding 200% in the past two decades is the continuous decline in the average interest payment rate. With the recovery of the inflation environment, market concerns about Japan's fiscal sustainability are also increasing, further pushing down the yen and pushing up long - term interest rates, forming a "dual pressure of exchange rate and interest rate." Currently, driven by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes and the rise of long - term interest rates, the average fiscal interest payment rate has turned upward, and the proportion of interest payments has also begun to rise slightly. The fiscal tolerance for interest rate hikes has obviously decreased [27]. From the Monetary Policy Divergence to See the Compression Space of Interest Rate Spreads - In the next year, the policy divergence of "US rate cuts and Japan rate hikes" will dominate the profit structure and capital flow of yen carry trades. In the current environment of still high interest rate spreads, this divergence will drive the nominal interest rate spread to narrow slowly, and the narrowing rhythm determines whether carry positions will be moderately re - balanced or trigger concentrated liquidation in extreme scenarios. In the baseline scenario, the interest rate spread narrows but does not reverse, and the carry space still exists; while the stress scenario requires the resonance of both the rapid weakening of the US and the rapid interest rate hikes in Japan to possibly lead to a sharp decline or even an inversion of the interest rate spread. Overall, the probability of the extreme combination is low, but its potential disturbances need to be vigilant [33]. Dismantling the Scale and Structure of the Yen Carry Trade Liability Pool - Overall, yen carry trades have evolved from the traditional single - direction bet into a large and complex hierarchical liability system. The different sources of funds, leverage structures, and risk exposures at different levels determine their volatility patterns and vulnerability points. When interest rate spreads narrow and exchange rate fluctuations intensify, short - term price shocks are often triggered by leveraged funds in the upper and middle layers, while it is the global allocation of Japanese institutions at the bottom layer that truly affects the cross - cycle capital flow. Therefore, understanding the systemic risk of yen carry trades lies not in simply looking at the scale of speculative short positions, but in identifying the behavioral constraints and re - balance rhythms of different layers [37]. Yen Carry Trade Reversal and Global Liquidity Shock - Currently, the macro and policy conditions may cause fluctuations but are not sufficient to trigger a systemic liquidity shock. The market has already factored in Japan's interest rate hike path in advance, and high - leverage yen short positions have been significantly cleared in the previous round of shocks. The Fed is in a stage of slow interest rate cuts, and the US dollar liquidity has not tightened significantly, making potential de - leveraging more likely to manifest as asset re - pricing rather than a full - scale stampede. On this basis, the key risk of yen carry trades is gradually shifting from short - term event shocks to the adjustment of capital flow driven by long - term changes in the interest rate spread pattern [43].

Group 1 - The overall sentiment towards equity assets is optimistic among institutions [1] - The risk premium of the CSI 300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation compared to the declining risk-free interest rates [1] - Continued macro liquidity support is favorable, with a mild expansion expected in the credit cycles of major global economies, creating a conducive environment for equities and commodities [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand policies are continuously strengthening, while external demand shows signs of stabilization, which may further support corporate profit recovery [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in trading volumes for various ETFs, particularly the 中证A500ETF, indicating strong institutional interest and a potential bullish sentiment in the market [1][2][3] - On December 17, multiple 中证A500ETF products reached record trading volumes, with 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF achieving a trading volume of 14.118 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The 中证A500ETF is recognized as a new generation of broad-based ETFs, balancing core large-cap assets with growth potential across various leading companies in niche sectors [1] Group 2 - Institutional investors are significant holders of broad-based ETFs, with over 80% of the shares in 华泰柏瑞中证A500ETF held by institutions as of June 30 [1] - The trading activity of other broad-based ETFs also surged, with 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF reaching a trading volume of 5.079 billion yuan and 华夏科创50ETF at 3.948 billion yuan on the same day [2] - Since November, net subscriptions for equity ETFs have totaled 105.241 billion yuan, with a notable single-day net subscription of 15.688 billion yuan on December 16 [2] Group 3 - The 港股 innovation drug theme ETFs have also attracted significant capital, with 汇添富港股通创新药ETF and 广发港股创新药ETF seeing net subscriptions of 3.624 billion yuan and over 2.7 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Several ETFs have reached new highs in terms of shares outstanding, including 南方中证A500ETF with 25.131 billion shares and 华夏恒生科技ETF with 66.012 billion shares [3] - New fund launches have maintained high interest, with several funds exceeding 1.3 billion yuan in issuance in December, and some funds announcing early closure of their fundraising [3] Group 4 - Institutions generally hold an optimistic view on equity assets, with 富国基金 noting that the equity risk premium for the 沪深300 index remains above one standard deviation, indicating attractive risk compensation [4] - Continued macro liquidity support is expected to create a favorable environment for equities and commodities, with a moderate expansion in the global credit cycle [4] - The combination of ongoing domestic demand policies and stabilizing external demand is anticipated to further solidify corporate profit recovery [4]