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比特币跌至8万美元!一个月跌去超30%,熊市要来?
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-11-23 11:54
Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping to around $80,000, marking a decline of over 30% from its historical peak of $126,000 in early October, and reaching a seven-month low [1][3] Market Performance - Bitcoin's latest price is $86,161, with a daily increase of 2.91% but a weekly decline of 8.32% [1] - Ethereum is priced at $2,805, with a weekly drop of 10.12% and a monthly decline of 26% [3] - Other cryptocurrencies like SOL, BNB, and Dogecoin have also suffered losses exceeding 20% [3] Market Dynamics - The downturn is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, tightening liquidity, and a negative correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar index [3] - Institutional funds that previously supported Bitcoin's rise are showing signs of withdrawal, influenced by the post-US election environment and a cooling of pro-crypto policies [3] Investor Sentiment - The market is experiencing heightened fear, with significant liquidation events occurring, including over $1 billion in liquidations and 183,500 individuals affected [3] - Experts indicate that the drop below $80,000 is a significant marker of the current market's deep correction, leading to widespread panic and a substantial blow to market confidence [3] Risk Factors - Investors face various risks, including liquidation risk due to leveraged trading, market liquidity risk, and policy risk, which can exacerbate market volatility [4] - The effectiveness of the $80,000 support level is crucial for potential market recovery, with uncertainty surrounding the strength and sustainability of any rebound [4] Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, Bitcoin's price is influenced by macro liquidity, institutional participation, and regulatory policies [5] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, avoid high leverage, and stay informed about macroeconomic and policy signals to navigate the volatile market [5]
加密货币全线大跌,超25万人爆仓,近68亿元蒸发
21世纪经济报道· 2025-11-21 06:29
Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin dropping over 7% and other major cryptocurrencies following suit, indicating a broader market sell-off and loss of investor confidence [1][5]. Market Performance - As of November 21, Bitcoin is priced at $86,097.4, marking a 7.09% decline in the last 24 hours. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana have also seen declines of 7.81% and 8.37% respectively [2][3]. - The total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours exceeded $900 million (approximately 6.79 billion RMB), affecting over 252,000 traders [3][4]. Factors Influencing the Market - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Despite a peak in October, the lack of sustained capital inflow and high leverage positions have contributed to the current sell-off, compounded by external liquidity constraints [5][6]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price throughout the year, but there are signs of capital outflow from these institutions recently [6]. - The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive due to trends in global asset diversification, increasing long-term capital, and heightened institutional participation, which may support future price increases [6].
比特币崩跌破位:9万美元告急,下一站会是7万吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]
11月18日每日研选 | 中金公司:当前A股未见顶 2026年超配中国股票与黄金
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-18 00:29
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Chinese stock market is expected to progress amidst the AI technology wave, with gold also becoming a notable asset. The continuation of the upward momentum for both the Chinese stock market and gold into 2026 is under scrutiny, alongside asset allocation strategies for US stocks and Chinese bonds [4]. Group 1: Chinese Stock Market Analysis - Compared to US stocks, the Chinese stock market experiences more frequent cycles of upward and downward movements, making the identification of market tops more critical [4]. - CICC identifies five dimensions—economy, policy, macro liquidity, earnings, and valuation levels—to summarize the top patterns of Chinese stocks, finding that economic and policy signals are more accurate, while liquidity, earnings, and valuation signals have limited guiding effects [4]. - Currently, the Chinese economy is in a recovery phase with low inflation and stable growth, indicating no immediate necessity for policy tightening. However, there are concerns about potential declines in macro liquidity [4]. Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold's market top prediction is considered less challenging than that of stocks, with the Federal Reserve's policies being a key factor. The correlation between gold's top turning points and policy expectations enhances prediction accuracy [5]. - The outlook for 2026 hinges on four major factors: economic growth shifts, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks. These factors are not expected to significantly alter the steady upward trend of Chinese stocks and gold in the short term [5][6]. - CICC recommends an asset allocation strategy for the first half of 2026 that favors Chinese stocks and gold, while maintaining standard allocations for US stocks and bonds, and reducing exposure to Chinese bonds [7]. Group 3: Long-term Trends and Predictions - The macro liquidity environment is anticipated to remain generally loose, providing favorable conditions for the market. The AI industry trend is also expected to support the A-share market [7]. - Gold is positioned as a superior asset under the resonance of US and Chinese liquidity, with long-term structural factors supporting an increase in gold's valuation center [7]. - The current gold market trend is still below the significant upswings seen in the 1970s and 2000s, suggesting a potential for gold prices to exceed $5,000 per ounce if the current trend continues [7].
政策内生 - 9月全社会债务数据综述
2025-11-11 01:01
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic environment in China, focusing on the performance of the stock and bond markets, as well as the implications of macro liquidity and risk preferences on investment strategies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Liquidity Trends** - In October, there was a slight easing of liquidity, but the probability of macro liquidity convergence is increasing, favoring bonds over equities [1][4]. - The current profit cycle has been declining since 2011, with expectations of low-level fluctuations entering Q4 2024 [1][11]. 2. **Private Sector Debt Growth** - The growth rate of private sector debt fell to 3.9% in September 2025, indicating a low-level fluctuation in profitability, with limited further decline expected [1][15][16]. - This trend reflects a continuous decline in profitability since 2011, with the current state being a low-level narrow fluctuation [15][17]. 3. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - It is advised to construct a portfolio consisting of long-term bonds and value-oriented equity assets, with a focus on dividend indices and the Shanghai Composite Index [1][5]. - The highest proportion in the dividend index is currently from the banking sector [5]. 4. **Impact of International Capital Flows** - International capital flows significantly influence Chinese asset prices and the RMB exchange rate, with appreciation dependent on the performance of the real economy relative to the U.S. [1][18]. - The Chinese government has maintained a stable macro leverage ratio and other policy goals since 2016 [18][19]. 5. **Risk Preference Dynamics** - Risk preference is an endogenous variable that stabilizes when profitability does not decline further. Since August 29, there has been no significant increase in risk preference, indicating limited upward potential [1][8][24]. - The overall risk preference has shown a slight decline, necessitating a focus on value styles rather than growth styles in the current environment [24]. 6. **Policy Implications** - Domestic policies play a crucial role in economic and market dynamics, with the effectiveness of easing policies dependent on their ability to stimulate economic growth [10][20]. - In a deflationary context, there is a conflict between expansionary policies and debt reduction goals, requiring careful management of asset positions [21][22]. 7. **Future Economic Outlook** - The expectation is for macro liquidity to exhibit a converging trend towards the end of the year, with a focus on value styles unless there are signs of improvement in macro liquidity or risk preference [26]. - Continuous monitoring of data changes is essential for timely adjustments to investment strategies [26]. Other Important Insights - The relationship between the profit cycle and demographic structure suggests that significant improvements in the profit cycle are unlikely without substantial demographic changes [17]. - The analysis of private sector debt growth serves as a critical indicator for observing profitability trends, reflecting broader economic expectations [14][15]. - The distinction between "volume-price" relationships in market conditions highlights the importance of understanding market dynamics for investment strategies [22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment strategies in the context of China's market.
资金跟踪系列之十九:两融活跃度明显回落,个人ETF延续回流
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-11-10 14:52
Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. Inflation expectations have decreased [1][12]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices also showing a decline in volatility. However, over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][30]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, and food and beverage sectors have seen high research activity, with steel, electric new energy, media, textile and apparel, and construction sectors experiencing a rise in research activity [3][41]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the transportation, construction, non-bank financials, military, computer, and banking sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been lowered [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a slight net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like electric new energy, home appliances, and computers has increased [5][32]. - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals, while net selling has occurred in pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and non-bank financials [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has significantly decreased to the lowest level since mid-August 2025, with a slight net buying of 6.736 billion yuan last week, primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemicals has increased [6][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly among institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with mid/small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [8][48].
固定收益专题报告:9月全社会债务数据综述:政策内生
Huaxin Securities· 2025-11-09 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly, mainly due to the marginal relaxation of the capital market in October, with a slight decline in risk appetite and no unexpected overall trend [2]. - Looking ahead to November, profits will continue to run smoothly. After a slight improvement in the capital market at the beginning of the month, the risk of marginal convergence of macro - liquidity is increasing, and risk appetite is likely to continue to decline. The trend of bond - equity ratio favoring bonds and equity style favoring value remains unchanged. A combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][14][41]. - China's profit cycle may have entered a low - level narrow - range oscillation stage since the fourth quarter of last year. The private sector debt growth rate is introduced as a supplementary variable to proxy for profit, and currently, the further downward space of this data is limited [3]. - The domestic part of macro - liquidity corresponds to policies. In the long run, policies are endogenous and should conform to the economic cycle. China's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio and financial institutions benefiting the real economy have remained stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1全社会债务情况 - As of the end of September, China's total social debt balance was 500.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.4%, down from the previous value of 8.8% [16]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of financial institutions (inter - bank) was 91.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.4%, down from the previous value of 8.0% [18]. - At the end of September, the debt balance of the real sector was 408.6 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.8%, down from the previous value of 8.9%. Among them, the household debt balance was 81.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 2.2%; the government debt balance was 117.1 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 14.5%; the non - financial enterprise debt balance was 209.7 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5% [21][23]. - In September, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year - on - year, and the profit of state - owned enterprises increased by 7.5% year - on - year [26]. 3.2金融机构资产负债详解 - As of the end of September, the debt balance of broad financial institutions was 164.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.9%, down from the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, the bank debt balance was 135.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 7.1%; the non - bank financial institution debt balance was 29.4 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 0.8% [29]. - In September, the three quantitative indicators of monetary policy (base money balance growth rate, financial institution debt growth rate, and excess reserve ratio) showed two declines and one increase. Monetary policy continued to converge marginally in September, slightly relaxed in October, and the probability of further convergence remains high [7][14][31]. - The newly constructed NM2 has a similar trend to M2 but a lower absolute level since 2017. The recent situation indicates that the probability of further marginal convergence of monetary policy is still large [38]. 3.3资产配置 - In the past 4 weeks, the domestic stock and bond markets both rose slightly. Looking ahead to November, a combination of long - term bonds and value stocks is recommended [2][41]. - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of bank bond investment balance was 18.8%, lower than the previous value of 19.6%. The growth rate of the central bank and banks' total foreign asset balance was 3.6%, higher than the previous value of 3.4% [41][42]. - It is expected that the real economic growth rate of the United States will decline this year, inflation will remain high, and the nominal economic growth rate will decrease. The debt growth rate of the US real sector is expected to remain stable at around 3.4%. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China [15][42].
宏观金融数据日报-20251107
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 07:19
Report Overview - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [3] - Author: Zheng Yuting from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [3] Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.32 with a 0.15 bp increase; DR007 closed at 1.43 with a 1.24 bp decrease [4] - GC001 closed at 1.32 with an 11.00 bp decrease; GC007 closed at 1.47 with no change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59 with a 0.15 bp decrease; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [4] - 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40 with a 0.23 bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond yield was 1.58 with a 0.52 bp increase [4] - 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81 with a 1.06 bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.09 with a 2.33 bp decrease [4] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 92.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 342.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [4] - This week, 2.068 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 70 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Indexes and Futures Stock Indexes - CSI 300 rose 1.43% to 4693.4; SSE 50 rose 1.22% to 3044.7; CSI 500 rose 1.61% to 7345.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.17% to 7551.8 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0552 trillion yuan, an increase of 182.9 billion yuan from the previous day [6] Stock Index Futures - IF当月 rose 1.6%; IH当月 rose 1.3%; IC当月 rose 1.9%; IM当月 rose 1.3% [6] - IF trading volume decreased 4.5%, and its position decreased 2.0%; IH trading volume decreased 3.1%, and its position decreased 0.8% [6] - IC trading volume decreased 9.3%, and its position decreased 2.7%; IM trading volume decreased 14.8%, and its position decreased 4.6% [6] Market Analysis and Strategy - Yesterday, the stock index continued to rebound, and the technology sector recovered. Rumors of support for domestic chips and a 50% price increase in HBM4 supply between SK Hynix and NVIDIA boosted relevant sectors [7] - In the short term, in November, the stock index enters a macro - relatively vacuum period. Liquidity factors may dominate market strength, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly under the background of abundant macro - liquidity [7] - In the long - term, the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward pace will not be rapid. The strategy suggests seizing opportunities to go long and using the discount structure of stock index futures to enhance the advantage of long - term long strategies [7] Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF升贴水: 4.98% (current month), 4.09% (next month), 3.22% (current quarter), 3.27% (next quarter) [8] - IH升贴水: 1.39% (current month), 0.93% (next month), 0.60% (current quarter), 0.64% (next quarter) [8] - IC升贴水: 13.62% (current month), 11.48% (next month), 9.93% (current quarter), 10.00% (next quarter) [8] - IM升贴水: 20.63% (current month), 16.50% (next month), 13.17% (current quarter), 12.40% (next quarter) [8]
国金证券:市场交易热度与波动率均回落 杠杆资金整体回流
智通财经网· 2025-10-27 23:57
Core Viewpoint - The overall trading activity in the market has continued to decline, with certain sectors maintaining high trading heat, while the investment sentiment shows signs of fluctuation due to net selling from northbound capital [1][10]. Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inverted" interest rates between China and the US has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10-year US Treasury bonds have remained unchanged or decreased, with inflation expectations rising. Offshore dollar liquidity has loosened, and the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and relatively loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [2]. Trading Heat, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading heat has declined, with the volatility of major indices also decreasing. Sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, construction, electricity and public utilities, banking, and coal have trading heat above the 80th percentile, while the volatility of communication and electronics is also above the 80th historical percentile [3]. Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, communications, and machinery, while sectors like consumer services, light industry, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals have seen a month-on-month increase in research heat [4]. Analyst Forecasts - Profit forecasts for the years 2025 and 2026 for the entire A-share market have been raised. Specifically, profit forecasts for sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, machinery, coal, and electric power have been increased. Index-wise, profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext have been raised, while the CSI 500 has seen mixed adjustments. In terms of investment style, profit forecasts for large-cap, mid-cap growth, and value stocks have been increased, while small-cap growth stocks have been downgraded [5]. Northbound Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a net selling trend overall. The trading pattern has shifted between "net buying - net selling - net buying." In terms of the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors like communications, non-ferrous metals, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in automotive, non-bank financials, and electronics. Northbound capital has mainly net bought in sectors like pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in electronics, communications, and food and beverage sectors [6]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded, with a net purchase of 27 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and non-bank financials, while net selling occurred in automotive, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors. The financing buy-in ratio has notably increased in communications, home appliances, and non-bank financials [7]. Dragon and Tiger List Trading - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to decline, although the total trading amount on this list as a percentage of total A-share trading has increased. Sectors such as coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals have a relatively high and rising proportion of trading on the Dragon and Tiger list [8]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, with net inflows into sectors like communications, electronics, and computers, while reducing positions in home appliances, banking, and food and beverage sectors. The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has increased. New equity fund establishment has seen a rebound in scale, with active and passive fund sizes decreasing and increasing respectively. ETFs have experienced net redemptions, primarily in personal ETFs [9][10].
宏观金融数据日报-20251027
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 06:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term shock adjustment of stock indices is mainly affected by intensified overseas disturbances and adjustments in some high - position sectors. As unfavorable factors such as trade frictions gradually ease, stock indices are expected to return to the upward channel. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of stock indices is expected to be limited. It is recommended to take a long - term long position [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - Interest rate products' closing prices and changes: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a 0.52bp increase; DR007 at 1.41 with a 1.57bp decrease; GC001 at 1.40 with a 5.50bp decrease; GC007 at 1.57 with a 6.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.48 with a 0.25bp decrease; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.62 with a 0.82bp increase; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85 with a 0.50bp increase; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.02 with a 1.00bp increase [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations in the open market, with 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net investment (including treasury cash) of 1981 billion yuan [4] - This week, 8672 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1890 billion, 1595 billion, 1382 billion, 2125 billion, and 1680 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Also, 7000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Monday and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day outright reverse repurchase will mature on Wednesday [5] Stock Market - Stock index closing prices and changes: CSI 300 closed at 4661 with a 1.18% increase; SSE 50 at 3046 with a 0.62% increase; CSI 500 at 7259 with a 1.62% increase; CSI 1000 at 7419 with a 1.52% increase. Futures closing prices and changes: IF current - month contract at 4648 with a 1.2% increase; IH current - month contract at 3048 with a 0.8% increase; IC current - month contract at 7212 with a 1.7% increase; IM current - month contract at 7369 with a 1.7% increase [7] - Futures trading volume and position changes: IF trading volume was 116181 with a 9.4% decrease, and position was 255413 with a 3.5% decrease; IH trading volume was 58979 with a 2.2% decrease, and position was 95329 with a 1.4% increase; IC trading volume was 137728 with a 5.1% decrease, and position was 243604 with a 4.2% decrease; IM trading volume was 224453 with a 13.8% decrease, and position was 349089 with a 7.0% decrease [7] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.7; SSE 50 rose 2.63% to 3045.8; CSI 500 rose 3.46% to 7258.5; CSI 1000 rose 3.25% to 7419.2. Shenwan primary industry indices generally rose, with communication (11.5%), electronics (8.5%), power equipment (4.9%), machinery and equipment (4.7%), and media (4.3%) leading the gains, while only agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 1.4%) and food and beverage (- 0.9%) declined. The daily trading volume of A - shares last week was 15749 billion, 17043 billion, 15180 billion, 15106 billion, and 17592 billion yuan respectively, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 3494.9 billion yuan compared with the previous week [7] Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 3.70%, 3.75%, 3.06%, and 3.10% respectively; IH premium rates are - 1.19%, - 0.62%, - 0.35%, and - 0.30% respectively; IC premium rates are 9.04%, 9.19%, 9.20% respectively; IM premium rates are 9.47%, 11.05%, 11.58%, and 11.66% respectively. The values in parentheses are annualized premium and discount rates (green for premium, red for discount) [9]