Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]

市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能持续降低。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 宏观数据分析 日本央行行长植田和男12月1日暗示本月晚些时候可能加息，这一表态释放了强烈的鹰派信号，日央行 将在12月18-19日举行货币政策会议，届时加息成为大概率事件。日本在"失去的30年"以来，一直维持 低利率甚至0利率状态，日元也因此成为国际货币套利交易中重要的组成部分。日本当前经济有复苏苗 头，工资持续上行。弱势的日元汇率带来了输入性通胀压力，日央行顺势开始试探加息收紧流动性。国 际市场在日央行表态后对潜在的流动性收紧进行了一定定价但幅度有限，且随着美股小非农不及预期、 美联储换届人选基本确定、特朗普账户支持美股等催化进一步被冲淡。市场的关注点集中于弱美元。后 续需观察日元汇率和日债收益率等指标走强的持续性，再行判断真正影响。 市场上周震荡反弹，资金面层面，市场量能偏低，多种技术指标偏弱，融资数据有好转。 短期观点 年底临近，机构资金活跃度低，市场 ...

中经记者 郭婧婷 北京报道 在全球经济格局深刻变革的背景下，2026年正被视为全球资本进行战略性再配置的关键一年。近期，包 括中金公司、霸菱资产、摩根士丹利、渣打银行在内的多家中外金融机构密集发声，共同指向一个趋 势：随着全球资金寻找新的"安全高地"，中国资产凭借"估值优势+增长动能"的双重吸引力，已成为国 际投资者不可或缺的配置选项。 多家机构预测，2026年将是"中国资产重估"的延续之年，A股市场与人民币资产有望迎来国内外增量资 金的持续流入。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙认为，中国核心资产在全球配置中具备较高价值，外资提升对中国资 产的配置比例，既是战略判断，也是现实需求。在此轮慢牛长牛背景下，更多境内外资金有望稳步流入 中国优质资产，推动市场行情持续走强，进一步巩固本轮长期向好格局。 霸菱宏观经济策略师李伟博向《中国经营报》记者分析指出，中国资产吸引力的深层原因在于产业层面 的系统性突破。今年年初DeepSeek的推出，在一定程度上让全球投资者意识到AI赛道中一个不容忽视 的"成本"因素。自2020年以来，直到DeepSeek出现之前，以美国为主导的机构大多依托资金规模优势进 行投资与布局，这种模式 ...

申万宏源策略 【申万宏源策略】弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128- 20251205) 原创 阅读全文 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128-20251205) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.08 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251128-20251205)本周美国ADP就业和PMI数据双双不及预期，其中美国11月PMI录得48.2，预期49，前值48.7，ADP新增就业减少3.2万人， 预期增加1万人。景气度数据的不及预期巩固了美联储年内降息预期，本周全球流动性有所修复，全球权益和商品均多数上涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周上 升12BPs，美元指数下行0.46%，当前点位为99.0，弱美元交易持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数除科创50指数外其余指数均收涨，创业板指领涨市场；全球市场中韩国综合股价 200领涨全球，巴西股市跌幅明显，总体上新兴市场好于发达市场；3）商品方面， ...

Group 1: Equity Market Insights - The core view is bullish on Chinese A/H shares due to accelerated economic transformation and increased asset management demand driven by lower risk-free rates [2] - The US stock market is expected to see upward revisions in earnings forecasts by 2026, supported by AI industry growth and increased capital expenditures from tech companies [2] - The Eurozone economy is projected to recover moderately by 2026, benefiting from fiscal spending and supply chain adjustments [2] - Japan's economy is improving post-deflation, with a high probability of continued fiscal and monetary easing [2] - India's economic growth expectations have been downgraded, leading to a recommendation for underweighting Indian stocks [2] Group 2: Bond Market Outlook - Chinese government bond rates are expected to rise slightly due to a stable yet easing monetary policy and positive fiscal policy orientation [3] - The US Treasury yields are anticipated to decline moderately as inflation expectations decrease and economic growth stabilizes [3] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - Long-term bullish outlook on gold due to the diversification of global central bank reserves and weakening dollar credit [4] - Oil prices are under pressure from oversupply, exacerbated by OPEC+ production increases and rising US shale oil output [4] - Copper prices are supported by structural demand driven by AI infrastructure and grid upgrades, despite declining ore grades and longer development cycles [4] Group 4: Currency Market Analysis - A weak dollar is expected to persist, with potential for a temporary rebound due to geopolitical factors and policy expectations in Europe and Japan [5] - The Chinese yuan is projected to remain stable with a slight upward trend, supported by steady domestic economic momentum and resilient exports [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a stable upward trend since October, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3950 points, approaching the 4000-point mark, supported by the 20th Central Committee's emphasis on technological self-reliance and comprehensive reform [4] - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by moderate inflation, declining interest rates, and ample liquidity, which are solidifying the valuation bottom for risk assets [4] - Northbound capital transactions reached 1.1 trillion yuan this week, maintaining a high level despite a decrease from 1.5 trillion yuan the previous week [4] Group 2: Global Monetary Policy - Major global central banks have shifted towards easing monetary policy, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in October or December [8] - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3.0%, below market expectations, indicating a stable trend of declining inflation [8] - Historical trends suggest that a rate-cutting cycle combined with a weak dollar often leads to significant recovery in the A-share market [8] Group 3: Policy and Economic Growth - The 20th Central Committee's meeting has injected new medium- to long-term confidence into the market, focusing on high-quality development and emphasizing technological self-reliance and modernization [15] - Policies are increasingly supporting structural and long-term growth, with a focus on technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing the capital market's resilience [12][15] - The current macroeconomic environment is expected to lead to a "steady upward" phase in corporate profits, particularly in manufacturing and technology sectors [12] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is transitioning from short-term speculation to medium-term positioning, with technology growth and dividend stability forming the dual investment focus [14] - Technology manufacturing remains a core driver of market momentum, benefiting from policy support and increased R&D investment [16] - Dividend assets are seen as a stable foundation for growth, with state-owned enterprises enhancing their dividend payout ratios [17] - The CSI A500 index represents a balanced growth opportunity, combining growth potential with stability [18]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with both manufacturing and service sectors showing decreased activity, and the labor market showing signs of fatigue [1] - In Europe, the economy is stabilizing under the influence of continuous interest rate cuts, leading to increased credit growth for households and businesses, although structural issues and energy bottlenecks persist [1] - Japan's economy remains relatively stable with rising household income and improved consumer confidence, but faces new challenges from US tariffs and yen appreciation impacting manufacturing and exports [1] Group 2: Asset Outlook - US Treasury yields are expected to decline towards 3.5% as the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, with European bond yields also expected to decrease due to easing inflation pressures [2] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the differing monetary policy trajectories among the US, Eurozone, and Japan [2] - Short-term pressures on gold prices are noted due to increased margin requirements and prior price surges, while medium-term support remains strong from fiscal debt, monetary easing, and sovereign gold purchases [2]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the depreciation of the US dollar, leading to an expansion of global liquidity and a shift of funds from the US to other markets. The dollar index has decreased from 115 to below 100, indicating a reversal in capital flows and a narrative of "the East rising and the West declining" [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Drivers for 2025**: The primary driver for the market in 2025 is the weak dollar, which has led to an increase in non-US equity assets. The expansion of global liquidity, driven by the Fed's rate cuts and dollar depreciation since September 2024, has facilitated this shift [2][3] - **Hong Kong Stock Market Performance**: Over the past year, the Hong Kong stock market has experienced three significant pulse movements closely tied to the Fed's monetary policy and global liquidity changes. The first pulse occurred in September 2024, driven by favorable policy expectations, while the second and third pulses occurred in early 2025 and September 2025, respectively, following dollar fluctuations and Fed rate cuts [3][4] - **Impact of Fed's Monetary Policy**: The Fed's recent monetary policy has significantly impacted the market. In September 2025, the Fed revised down its non-farm employment data, providing a rationale for a 75 basis point rate cut. However, the guidance for future cuts was adjusted to 25 basis points per year, compressing expectations for future liquidity expansion [5][6] - **Investor Behavior and Market Stability**: Changes in investor behavior, particularly among state-owned and professional investors, have been observed. A significant decrease in the central bank's debt holdings indicates profit-taking and a potential shift in market dynamics, leading to an uneven market state that could increase future volatility [6][8] - **Investor Sentiment and Market Trends**: In 2025, investor sentiment has led to significant market movements. Many investors, having realized substantial gains, are opting to take profits or adjust their portfolios. This behavior has contributed to a rapid market decline, particularly in the dual innovation sector, as investors react to perceived risks and expectations of state intervention [8][10] - **Future Market Signals**: The current Kondratiev cycle's downturn is expected to persist until at least November 2026, with the overall bull market trend continuing. Observations of the relationship between the dollar index and the Hang Seng Technology Index are crucial for future bullish signals. A potential rise in the Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated by December 2025 or January 2026 [9][10] Other Important Insights - **Social Financing Trends**: The current social financing growth has decreased by 230 billion, with a growth rate of 8.7%, reflecting a slight decline compared to previous periods. The high net financing of government bonds continues to impact overall income growth [12][13] - **Gold's Role in Market Adjustments**: Gold has acted as a safe haven during equity asset adjustments, with its price reflecting market risk sentiment. The recent stabilization in gold prices indicates an improvement in market risk sentiment, despite ongoing downward pressures [11] - **US-China Trade Relations**: Recent developments in US-China trade relations indicate a temporary easing of tensions, with both sides engaging in talks to manage short-term risks. However, significant barriers remain, and achieving breakthrough results is challenging due to a lack of mutual trust [20][22] - **Market Signals for Reassessment**: To reassess bullish positions, it is essential to monitor the Fed's signals for further easing and the dollar index's movements. A significant drop in the dollar index could lead to increased liquidity flowing into non-US markets, positively impacting Hong Kong, H-shares, and A-shares [10][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future outlook.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S.-China relations and its impact on various industries, particularly focusing on technology, banking, steel, and agriculture sectors. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Relations Dynamics** - The current U.S.-China relationship is characterized by tactical maneuvering rather than strategic deterioration, with both sides leaving room for future negotiations [1][5][7] - Recent U.S. policies, including technology export controls, have escalated tensions, with significant additions to the entity list affecting numerous Chinese companies [2][3] 2. **China's Response to U.S. Actions** - China has implemented countermeasures such as antitrust investigations against Qualcomm and tariffs on U.S. vessels, aiming to disrupt U.S. policy inertia and compel a reassessment of strategies [4][6] 3. **Market Sentiment and Recovery** - Despite ongoing tensions, the establishment of high-frequency communication channels between U.S. and Chinese officials has reduced market concerns compared to earlier in the year [7] - The market has shown a tendency to recover quickly after significant events since May 2019, although liquidity risks in the A-share market remain a concern [7][8] 4. **Long-term Market Outlook** - A bullish outlook on the current bull market is maintained, driven by factors such as a weak dollar, global liquidity easing, and emerging sector growth [8][10] - Short-term market pressures are anticipated around the 3,900 to 4,000 points range, with potential style shifts due to U.S.-China relations [8][9] 5. **Key Sectors to Watch** - Focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals (especially precious metals and rare earths), banking, steel, domestic software, and agriculture [9][11] - Long-term growth potential is highlighted in technology and gold sectors, particularly in batteries, chips, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [10][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Internal U.S. Policy Conflicts** - The inconsistency in U.S. policies towards China reflects internal conflicts within the Trump administration, with different factions pushing for various measures without unified direction [3] 2. **Future Negotiation Prospects** - The potential for a deal between the U.S. and China hinges on concessions from both sides, with China likely to make moves that allow Trump to showcase his negotiation skills [6] 3. **Investment Strategy Recommendations** - Investors are advised to remain cautious of liquidity risks and consider market dips as potential buying opportunities, especially in light of upcoming APEC meetings and trade talks [7][8]