1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply side of polyester has shrunk, the downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, and the PTA port inventory has slightly increased. The PTA basis has stabilized, but the profit has continued to shrink. The PX - naphtha spread is at $250, and the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level, and the absolute price has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices. The overall market is expected to oscillate mainly due to the lack of obvious driving factors [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. The trade war may escalate, slightly affecting China's crude oil imports. The supply of domestic PTA devices has slightly shrunk, the PTA basis has stabilized, the PX device operating rate is stable, the cost has weakened, and although the PXN has expanded, polyester has followed the decline in crude oil [4] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 90%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the weaving can maintain the load after the "Golden September and Silver October" [4] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. The port inventory of PTA has slightly increased, and the physical goods in the Ningbo direction are slightly in short supply [4] - **Basis**: It is bearish. The PTA basis has quickly stabilized, the PTA profit has continued to shrink, and the liquidity in the PTA market is still very loose [4] - **Profit**: It is bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $250, the PTA processing fee remains at around 200 yuan, and the PTA processing fee has expanded [4] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. The PTA price is at a neutral - low level. After the end of the domestic maintenance season, the reforming devices are gradually recovering, and the absolute price of PTA has further declined due to the fall in crude oil prices [4] - **Macro Policy**: It is neutral. On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed is planning to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month [4] - **Investment View**: It is oscillating. There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to mainly oscillate [4] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4] 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Macro Situation**: On October 15, Fed Chairman Powell said that the US economy seems to be in a stable state, but the government shutdown may affect data collection. On October 17, major European stock indexes fell in early trading, with concerns about the banking industry spreading, and the European defense stocks also attracted attention [8] - **Gasoline**: The shutdown of the US government may affect demand in the off - season. The North American refinery load has declined, the total gasoline inventory has decreased by 1.6 million barrels, indicating strong terminal demand. The price of high - octane aromatics has remained relatively stable, and its spread with RBOB gasoline has remained stable at 68 cents [22] 3.3 Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamentals Overview - **Supply Increase**: With the commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical, the supply of MX is expected to increase in October. The future domestic xylene capacity will continue to be put into production at a high speed, with 1.7 million tons of xylene devices in Jiujiang Petrochemical, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei waiting to be put into production in 2026 [62] - **Market Situation**: The cross - regional arbitrage space for aromatics has opened, but physical trade has not occurred. The profit of selective disproportionation has declined, and the pure benzene price has suppressed the disproportionation profit. After the end of the maintenance season, the floating spread of PX has continued to weaken, the operating rate has significantly recovered, and the load has reached a very high level [40][54][62] - **Outlook**: Mixed xylene is facing continuous downward pressure. The profit of both gasoline reforming and aromatic hydrocarbon reforming has recovered, but the PTA supply side has shrunk, the processing fee has remained low, and the industry profit is still restricted by over - capacity [52][66] 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply of ethylene glycol has increased, and the price is running weakly. The inventory in East China ethylene glycol ports is still at a low level, the arrival volume at ports is limited, the import volume in the overseas market is expected to decline, and the new domestic devices have put pressure on the price. The coal - to - ethylene glycol operating rate has continued to recover, and the profit has been repaired [80] - **Gasoline**: The load of major refineries may decline due to port transportation [81] - **Polyester**: Polyester continues to maintain a high load, but the weaving load may decline. The polyester production has increased, and the downstream has entered the off - season [88][90]

Core Insights - The real estate market in various cities is experiencing a resurgence due to promotional activities and favorable policies, particularly during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Activity - Major real estate companies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are implementing promotional strategies such as discounted properties and home purchase subsidies to stimulate sales [2][5] - In Beijing, new housing policies introduced in August led to a significant increase in new home registrations, with a year-on-year growth of 12.6% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6% from September 1 to 29 [1] - During the holiday period, the sales area of real estate in Hubei province increased by 12.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in cities like Wuhan and Huangshi [2] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in the number of homebuyers actively looking for properties, with many arriving with clear purchase intentions, leading to faster decision-making and higher conversion rates [4] - Buyers are increasingly focused on the quality of housing, including sound insulation, building materials, and community green space [2][4] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent policy adjustments, such as the optimization of housing fund policies and the easing of purchase restrictions, are primarily aimed at stimulating domestic demand rather than opening up to external buyers [5] - The introduction of various promotional events, such as housing fairs and seasonal sales, has injected vitality into the real estate market [6][7] Group 4: Regional Initiatives - Cities like Shenzhen and Wuhan have organized promotional activities and housing fairs to attract potential buyers, with Wuhan's event drawing approximately 23,000 visitors and resulting in 1,652 intended transactions [7][8] - The integration of online platforms for property viewing and signing, along with offline services, aims to enhance the home-buying experience and facilitate better matching of supply and demand [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a potential upward trend in copper prices due to expected shortages in copper mines, particularly with the global second-largest copper mine, Grasberg, facing production halts. The report suggests that the copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage by 2026 [4] - The report highlights the performance of various metals, including aluminum, lithium, and cobalt, with specific recommendations for companies to watch in each segment [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic developments include a new round of US-China trade negotiations and comments from Trump regarding the unsustainability of high tariffs on China [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index down 3.07%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.60 percentage points [10][11] 3. Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index is 26.96, down 1.78 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 3.22, down 0.22 [19][22] 4. Copper - Copper prices have seen a decline, with LME copper down 1.86% and SHFE copper down 1.77%. However, the report indicates a potential for price recovery due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand [21][44] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with LME aluminum down 0.45% and SHFE aluminum down 0.47%. The report notes a decrease in inventory levels, which may support price stability [33][44] 6. Lithium - Lithium prices are showing mixed trends, with lithium carbonate down 0.27% and lithium spodumene up 0.83%. The report suggests that lithium prices may stabilize due to seasonal demand [73] 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased, with MB cobalt up 5.40% to $20.98 per pound, driven by changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo [86]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Glass - Last week, glass cost and profit both increased. The supply rose as previously commissioned production lines started outputting glass, and there's a possibility of output increase in some Shahe production lines but the time is uncertain. Currently in the peak season, demand has recovered, with downstream procurement being active due to price hikes by glass factories, leading to a rise in apparent demand. Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking demand. After the National Day, the downstream's willingness to accept goods and price transmission need further observation. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread may strengthen. The glass index is expected to range between 1200 - 1280. Key events to watch include glass output, glass factory inventories, and glass spot prices [5][6][7]. 纯碱 - Last week, soda ash production increased and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising. Demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported by the increasing output of photovoltaic and float glass, while light soda ash demand is relatively stable. Pre - holiday restocking led to a decrease in soda ash factory inventories, but in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. It's advisable to hold an empty position before the holiday, and the 1 - 5 month spread is expected to weaken. The soda ash index is expected to range between 1260 - 1330. Key events to watch include soda ash factory maintenance, inventory accumulation, and glass output [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - The mainstream market glass prices are running strongly. As of September 26, the market price of 5mm float glass in North China was 1200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous period, and in Central China, it was 1270 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton [9][10]. Supply - The output of float glass increased month - on - month. Some production lines in Shahe may be cold - repaired due to coal - to - gas conversion, but the time is undetermined. Last week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons (+0.3), and the national float glass operating rate was 76.01% (+0) [12][14]. Demand - In the peak season, glass demand has recovered. Due to price hikes by glass factories, downstream procurement is active, driving up the apparent demand. As of September 28, the downstream deep - processing factory order days were 10.5 days (+0.1), and last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 24.0375 million weight boxes (+938,000) [16][18]. Inventory - Glass factory inventories decreased due to price hikes and pre - holiday restocking. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes (-1.553 million), and the in - factory inventory in Hubei was 4.67 million weight boxes (-390,000). Regionally, East China's inventory decreased, with improved production and sales; North China's inventory decreased significantly after being boosted by news; Southwest China's inventory increased slightly; Central China's inventory decreased [20][22][26]. Cost and Profit - Glass cost and profit both increased last week. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1396 yuan/ton (+0), using coal - gas as fuel was 1018 yuan/ton (+3), and using petroleum coke as fuel was 1067 yuan/ton (+11). The corresponding weekly average profits were - 151.27 yuan/ton (+13.57), 95.07 yuan/ton (+1.04), and 61.37 yuan/ton (+20) [27][29][33]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the glass 01 basis was - 92, up 44 from the previous week; the glass 1 - 5 contract spread was - 120, up 7 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the weakened supply - demand pattern. If price hikes can be passed on to the downstream, it will drive the basis and month spread upwards [35][37]. Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly. As of September 26, the market price of light soda ash in Qinghai was 980 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week, and the market price of heavy soda ash was 1203 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week [41][43]. Supply - Soda ash production increased month - on - month and is at a high level. With the upcoming commissioning of Alxa Phase II, production is expected to continue rising, which will have a strong bearish impact on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 776,900 tons (+31,200), including light soda ash production of 346,800 tons (+18,800) and heavy soda ash production of 430,100 tons (+12,400) [45][47]. Demand - The output of photovoltaic glass is gradually increasing, and the output of float glass increased month - on - month. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is strongly supported, and the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily output of float and photovoltaic glass was 250,055 tons (+600). Driven by pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, the apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 881,000 tons (+93,400) last week [49][53]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventories decreased last week due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and inventory accumulation is inevitable. Regionally, North China's inventory decreased significantly, Northwest China's inventory decreased, and Southwest China's inventory remained unchanged [59][61][66]. Cost and Profit - Soda ash cost increased and profit declined last week. The cost support for heavy soda ash in East China using the combined - soda process is around 1310 [67][68]. Basis and Month Spread - As of September 26, the soda ash 01 contract basis was - 90, flat from the previous week; the soda ash 1 - 5 contract spread was - 91, down 2 from the previous week. The basis is at a low level in the same period of previous years, mainly due to the poor supply - demand pattern of the spot market. Considering new capacity additions, the basis is expected to remain low, and the month spread is expected to decline further [70][72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 17, 2025. Metals like gold and silver rose, while some commodities such as caustic soda and glass declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors influencing their prices, with most being expected to show a weak - to - sideways trend [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 17, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, and red dates rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, caustic soda fell over 4%, glass fell over 3%, and rapeseed meal, live hogs, and SC crude oil fell close to 3%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7] - As of 15:22 on October 17, in terms of capital flow,中证1000 2512 had an inflow of 3.136 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2512 had an inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, and Shanghai silver 2512 had an inflow of 601 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2512 (749 million yuan), SSE 50 2512 (727 million yuan), and CSI 500 2512 (526 million yuan) [7] 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened low, rose, then fell back. Codelco and Aurubis will charge record - high premiums to European customers next year. Supply is expected to be tight due to frequent disruptions at international copper mines and smelter overhauls. Although demand is strong during the peak season, high copper prices have curbed downstream consumption. The overall fundamentals remain tight, and copper prices are still in an upward range [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and trended strongly. Supply is growing steadily, and demand is in the peak season. Both production and demand are strong, with good demand performance during the peak season, increasing downstream production orders, and decreasing warehouse receipts [12] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season is over, and the overall oil inventory has increased. With geopolitical risks easing and concerns about demand, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to view it as a weak - sideways trend [13][14] - **Asphalt**: The supply side's operating rate has rebounded, and production is expected to decrease slightly in October. Downstream demand is restricted by factors such as funds and weather. With high - pressure on crude oil supply - demand and falling prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to be weakly sideways [15] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate has slightly increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost side is under pressure due to oil price drops. Although the peak season is approaching, demand is less than expected, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [16][17] - **Plastic**: The operating rate has risen, and the downstream is in the peak season, but demand is less than expected. New production capacity has been added, and the cost side is affected by oil prices. It is expected to be weakly sideways [18] - **PVC**: The supply - side operating rate has decreased, and downstream recovery is limited. Export expectations have weakened, and inventory pressure is high. With no actual anti - involution policies in place, it is expected to be weakly sideways [20] - **Coking Coal**: It opened high and closed up. The supply has increased, while demand is affected by the losses of coking enterprises. However, the peak season provides some support, and attention should be paid to key domestic meetings and coke price increases [21][22] - **Urea**: The futures price opened high and trended weakly. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is affected by weather and market sentiment. Factory inventories are accumulating, and it is expected to be in a short - term low - level sideways trend [23]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices continue to rise, with expectations to reach $4,300 soon, and significant adjustments are not anticipated before $4,500 [1] - The year-to-date increase in gold prices has reached 62%, marking one of the largest annual gains in over 30 years [1] - The supply chain for silver is disrupted due to high investment demand, with major refiners like Heraeus unable to commit to delivery dates, leading to delays of 1-2 months for existing orders [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - For investors, purchasing paper gold, accumulated gold, or gold ETFs is recommended over physical gold bars due to storage and authenticity verification issues [1] - In times of crisis, physical assets like gold may not hold significant value compared to essential goods, highlighting the importance of liquidity and practicality in asset management [2] Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - The coal sector has shown strong performance, with the China Coal Index rebounding by 5.36%, driven by rising coal prices [2] - The banking sector also experienced a rebound of 5.25%, supported by institutional buying and strategies to stabilize stock index volatility [2] - The market's trading volume has dropped below 2 trillion, indicating cautious sentiment as companies prepare to report third-quarter results [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper (沪铜)**: The copper market is supported by macro hedging sentiment and the expected interest - rate cut cycle. With supply tightening due to frequent disturbances at international copper mines and smelter overhauls, and demand boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the copper price is in an upward range and is expected to oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: The supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. With both supply and demand booming, the market is expected to be relatively strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has weak supply - demand fundamentals due to the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, intensified Sino - US trade frictions, OPEC+ production increase, and the resumption of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdish region. It is recommended to view it as a weak oscillation and pay attention to the development of the Sino - US trade war [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt is at a relatively high level, while the demand is restricted by factors such as funds and rainfall. With high pressure on crude oil supply and demand, falling crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The downstream demand for PP is in the "Golden September and Silver October" season but falls short of expectations. With new production capacity coming on stream, increased supply, and high - pressure on the cost side due to falling crude oil prices, the PP market is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market has a neutral - level supply and low - level demand. With new production capacity and falling crude oil prices, and the demand during the peak season being less than expected, the plastic market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [18]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply and low demand. With increased social inventory, weak cost, and no actual anti - involution policy implemented, the PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market has increased supply from resumed production. Although the demand from coke enterprises is weak, the high - level demand from steel mills provides support. The market is expected to be relatively stable during the "Golden September and Silver October" [21]. - **Urea**: The urea market has high supply and low demand. With poor domestic demand and continued inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon, coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber rose by more than 3%, while Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, coke, and red dates rose by more than 2%. The container shipping index (European line) and live pigs fell by more than 3%, and apples fell by nearly 2% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.38%, the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.80%, the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 1.01%, and the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.95% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of the 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.06%, and the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.42% [7]. - As of 15:23 on October 16, in terms of capital flow, the main contracts of SSE 50 2512, coking coal 2601, and CSI 300 2512 had capital inflows of 1.403 billion, 673 million, and 602 million respectively; the main contracts of CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and Shanghai copper 2511 had capital outflows of 2.862 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.3 billion respectively [7]. 3.2. Individual Futures Analysis - **Copper**: China's September CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. In October, 6 smelters had overhauls, affecting an additional 47,300 tons of production compared to September. Although the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, the overall market is still in an upward trend [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase in October, with new production lines put into operation. In September 2025, Chile exported 11,100 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons (- 14%). The domestic production schedule in October is 84,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The demand in the downstream is in the peak season [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On October 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory has decreased more than expected. Russia's crude oil exports are still at a high level. The market is worried about the demand due to various factors, and the supply - demand situation is weak [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: After the National Day, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 37%, and the expected production in October is 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (- 0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (15.0%). The downstream demand is restricted by funds and rainfall [15]. - **PP**: The downstream PP production rate increased by 0.05 percentage points to 51.76%. On October 16, some overhauled devices restarted. New production capacity has been put into operation. The demand during the peak season is less than expected [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate remained at about 87.5%. The downstream PE production rate increased by 0.23 percentage points to 44.36%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the demand during the peak season is less than expected [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC production rate increased by 3.66 percentage points to 82.63%. The downstream demand is low, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter is weak. The social inventory is still high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price showed an intraday increase. The supply has increased with the resumption of production, and the demand from coke enterprises is weak, but the steel mills' demand provides support [21]. - **Urea**: The urea price showed an intraday decrease and then an increase. The upstream factories are holding up the price, but the downstream demand is low. The daily production is about 190,000 - 200,000 tons, and the inventory is increasing [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Next week, the Shanghai lead futures market is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation pattern. Supply of primary and recycled lead is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, providing support for prices. Although overall demand is average, it won't decline sharply under the "Golden September and Silver October" background and driven by emerging energy - storage demand. The decline in inventory also provides a certain bottom support for prices. Today, Shanghai lead shows signs of a rebound, but the rebound height is expected to be limited. It is recommended to place long orders on dips [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,110 yuan/ton, with a 11 - 12 - month contract spread of - 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,977.5 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead open interest is 84,493 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 3,855 lots, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 30,705 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 39,916 tons, and the LME lead inventory is 246,550 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 lead is 16,900 yuan/ton, and that of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market's 1 lead is 16,990 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract is - 210 yuan/ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 44.48 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, and the average operating rate of primary lead is 83.56%. The monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, and the weekly output of primary lead is 3.73 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68. The import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, and the import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons. The export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, and the export volume of batteries is 49.68 million [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,056.97 points. The monthly output of automobiles is 2.7524 million, and the monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1.333 million [3] 3.6 Industry News - Recycling merchants in different regions have different waste - battery purchase prices and cargo volumes. For example, Guangdong A recycling merchant suspends quotes due to high prices and no profit; Jiangxi A recycling merchant has a stable cargo volume [3]

金吾财讯 | 建材水泥股表现强势，截至发稿，中国建材(03323)涨6.32%，华新水泥(06655)涨4.80%，海 螺水泥(00914)涨3.63%，华润建材科技(01313)涨3.33%，金隅集团(02009)涨2.35%，亚洲水泥（中国） (00743)涨1.61%，西部水泥(02233)跌1.54%。 来源：金吾财讯 消息面上，中国银河证券表示，后续来看，"金九银十"需求有望继续增长，但在终端市场疲软情况下， 预计增幅有限；因考虑到冬季将迎来较长时间错峰停窑，且叠加当下需求边际改善，预计水泥企业将继 续积极推涨水泥价格，此外，煤价存上涨预期，将进一步对水泥价格形成支撑。此外，该行认为，"反 内卷"加速推进行业供给优化，供需矛盾有望缓和，水泥价格存推涨预期，区域龙头企业盈利有望修 复。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].