1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider buying on dips and focus on the repair of the discount. Despite short - term disturbances, the outlook for the stock index is optimistic, and the market is expected to resume its upward trend [8][9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may show a fluctuating upward rhythm in the future. The steepening of the yield curve requires a continuous and significant decline in the funding situation [10]. - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: In the short term, the 08 contract consolidates following the spot rate. In the long - term, factors such as trans - route capacity rebalancing and the tight supply and demand situation in the peak season in July need to be considered, and there are uncertainties in both long and short positions [11]. - **Cotton**: During the Sino - US tariff observation period, the cotton price is under pressure to rebound due to insufficient production motivation and inventory digestion. The future trend depends on macro and supply - demand changes [11][12]. - **Sugar**: Due to the expected increase in supply, the international sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar price is affected by seasonal factors, and the future trend depends on import supply and profit changes [14][15]. - **Eggs**: In June, the supply and demand of eggs are expected to be relatively loose, and the egg price is under pressure. It is recommended to short the 07 - 10 contracts on rebounds [17]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to mainly conduct light - position positive spreads [18]. - **Jujubes**: Appropriate reduction of short positions, and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [19]. - **Pigs**: Short the near - month contracts on rallies and pay attention to the 7 - 9/3 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the continuity of second - fattening and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply increase in July and the potential for further production increases are negative for long - term oil prices. The market focuses on the Russia - Ukraine negotiation results, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with the low - sulfur fuel oil supported by refined oil cracking profits, but the weak shipping demand continues to affect the overall demand [23]. - **Plastics**: The current price is weak, but the downward space is limited. Consider a rebound or a long position in the 9 - 1 inter - month spread [23]. - **Rubber**: The supply pressure and the weakening demand expectation in the far - month continue, showing a weak and fluctuating trend [24]. - **Methanol**: Do not chase short in the short term. After a rebound, it is recommended to short [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: The near - month contract is affected by the warehouse receipt issue. The market may form a structure of strong reality and weak expectation, and pay attention to the high profit of the spot market [25]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: The supply of soda ash increases, and the price is under pressure; the glass demand is weak, and the price is likely to continue to decline [25]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to rebound following the oil price, with the upper pressure in the 3450 - 3480 area [26]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX and PTA are expected to rebound in the short term, but attention should be paid to the potential decline in polyester plant operations due to squeezed profits [26]. - **Urea**: Potential export benefits provide support for the spot price, but the futures market is weak [26]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate, and short - term interval operations are recommended; alumina is expected to show a wide - range fluctuation [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to be weak before the actual supply reduction in the wet season; polysilicon is under pressure due to the expected increase in production in June [27]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The black market is expected to remain weak. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level [28][29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking market is expected to continue its weak and fluctuating trend, with the coking coal supply being relatively loose and the coke following the trend [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The silicon iron 07 contract is in an oversold state, and it is recommended to hold short positions in manganese silicon [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trend Judgments Based on Fundamental Analysis - **Trend Short**: Industrial silicon, soda ash, polysilicon, rubber, glass, eggs, pigs, jujubes, coking coal, coke, crude oil, manganese silicon [3]. - **Oscillating and Bearish**: Alumina, cotton yarn, cotton, aluminum, sugar, caustic soda, asphalt, rebar, apples, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, methanol, plastic [3]. - **Oscillating**: Para - xylene, short - fiber, PTA, fuel oil, CSI 500 stock index futures, SSE 50 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, ten - year bonds, two - year bonds, five - year bonds, thirty - year bonds, silicon iron [3]. 3.2 Market Trend Judgments Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Manganese silicon, eggs, silver, corn, PTA, lead, rebar [6]. - **Oscillating**: Gold, corn starch, glass, rubber, palm oil, tin, methanol, PVC, rapeseed meal, polypropylene, iron ore, hot - rolled coil, Zhengzhou cotton, aluminum, asphalt, plastic, zinc, copper, soybean meal [6]. - **Bullish**: Soybeans, coke, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, coking coal, sugar [6]. 3.3 Macro - economic News - The US President Trump hopes to win the court battle on tariffs, increase tax cuts, and cancel or extend the debt ceiling. The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended the relevant ruling [8]. - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, and central financial regulatory authorities will announce major financial policies [8]. - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points; the composite PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [8]. - In May, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities rose month - on - month, with Shanghai leading the way. New home prices in third - and fourth - tier cities fell month - on - month [8]. - The US has extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China until August 31st [8]. - Trump's government officials defend tariffs, and Trump will increase the import steel tariff from 25% to 50% starting from June 4th, which may trigger EU counter - measures [8]. - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July [8].

近日，世界铂金投资协会发布数据显示，2025年第一季度，全球铂金总供应量同比下降10%，为45.3 吨；需求端同比增长10%，达70.7吨。在需求方面，全球铂金首饰和投资需求显著增长，首饰需求同比 增长9%，投资需求则增至14.3吨。 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，在全球央行宽松货币周期背景下，贵金属特别是黄金白银在类通货的 属性下成为央行和金融机构的重要投资标的。随着金银价格大幅上涨，铂金的性价比优势逐渐显现，进 而带动了消费和投资需求的提升。 铂金市场供不应求 全球铂金供应持续紧张。世界铂金投资协会中国市场研究负责人张文斌介绍，2025年全球铂金总供应量 为五年来最低，下降4%至217.7吨，预计2025年全球铂金总需求将达到247.7吨。 从用途来看，广发期货高级黄金投资分析师叶倩宁告诉记者，铂金作为一种贵金属，由于其优良的物理 和化学性质，在工业生产中有广泛用途，同时因为亮丽的外观作为首饰制品受到消费者、投资者的青 睐。铂金从过去全球的供需量来看总体保持紧平衡的状态，因此需求对价格影响更大。从需求的角度来 看，全球每年铂金的需求量中，工业、投资和首饰消费分别占66%、9%和25%，其中工业需求中又有 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, the psychological price of nickel ore has decreased, and the cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened. In the medium term, the supply remains loose, which restricts the upside potential. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the news from the ore end still affects short - term market trends. The nickel market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 118,000 to 126,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by the weak operation of nickel. The spot market trading atmosphere is weak, and the terminal purchases mainly for rigid demand. The overall supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the demand is slowly recovering. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the inventory pressure has eased. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract price ranging from 12,600 to 13,200 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market is bearish. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is difficult to boost. The raw material cost support is weakening, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is clear. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract price ranging from 56,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The zinc supply side shows a long - term loosening trend, but the short - term TC increase is weak. The demand side is stable, but there is a weakening expectation after the peak season. The inventory decline supports the price. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy can be considered. The main contract price is expected to range from 21,500 to 23,500 yuan/ton [8]. Aluminum - For alumina, the current inventory reduction and tight spot supply support the price, with a short - term support level of 2,900 - 3,000 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the low inventory supports the price, but the lack of macro - positive factors and the pressure on the demand side limit the upside. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate between 19,500 and 21,000 yuan/ton [11]. Copper - The copper market shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The strong fundamentals limit the downside, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract price focusing on the range of 78,000 - 79,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The tin supply is expected to be restored, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the supply - side raw material recovery rhythm [14]. Summary by Directory Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.40% to 121,525 yuan/ton, and 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1.31% to 122,625 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 13.64% to 2,500 yuan/ton [1]. Cost - The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowinning nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84% to 8,164 tons. SHFE inventory decreased by 0.24% to 27,742 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.14% to 44,151 tons [1]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 13,050 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesia's production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.80% to 51.08 million tons [4]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.98% to 60,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.00% to 59,300 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. The total inventory increased by 6.81% to 96,202 tons [5]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,830 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, refined zinc production increased by 1.55% to 55.54 million tons, and exports increased by 75.76% to 0.25 million tons. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 6.72% to 7.50 million tons [8]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.15% to 20,380 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [11]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 708.35 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 360.60 million tons. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 8.26% to 51.10 million tons [11]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.03% to 78,485 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton [12]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons, and imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 4.81% to 78.03 million tons [12]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.23% to 259,000 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [14]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons. SHEF inventory increased by 0.33% to 8,445 tons [14].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium market is experiencing a "cyclical bear" phase due to a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics, leading to significant price declines and industry overcapacity [1][2][21]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium industry has seen a fundamental change in supply and demand since 2023, with significant capital entering upstream production while downstream demand has not kept pace, resulting in overcapacity [1][2]. - 2024 is expected to be a crucial year for lithium resource production, with many new projects coming online, but ongoing price declines have led to production halts and adjustments in strategy among mining companies [2][3]. Regional Supply Insights - Australian lithium projects are adjusting strategies in response to price pressures, with companies like Core Lithium and Arcadium announcing production halts [3][4]. - African lithium resources are emerging as a significant supply source, with a projected supply increase of 233% in 2024 and further growth in 2025 [7][8]. - Domestic lithium resources in China are concentrated, with a mix of spodumene and lepidolite, but environmental pressures are slowing production growth [9][10]. Production Forecasts - The total lithium supply from Australia is projected to increase from 39.09 million tons in 2023 to 43.18 million tons in 2025, while African supply is expected to grow from 4.53 million tons to 21.9 million tons in the same period [6][8][49]. - Domestic lithium production is expected to rise significantly, with spodumene projects contributing 8.64 million tons by 2025 [12][14]. Price Trends and Market Outlook - Lithium prices have seen a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to around 60,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 22.23% decrease from the end of 2024 [1][51]. - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2025, with price levels projected between 60,000 and 90,000 yuan/ton, indicating ongoing pressure from high inventory levels [51]. Demand Projections - The demand for lithium is primarily driven by electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors, which together account for approximately 70% of lithium consumption [22][35]. - Global EV sales are projected to reach 18.24 million units in 2024, with significant growth in China, while demand in Europe and the US is expected to face challenges due to policy shifts [22][24][28]. Inventory and Cost Considerations - Lithium carbonate inventory levels have been rising, indicating a supply-demand imbalance, with significant stockpiles reported as of early 2025 [37][47]. - The cost structure for lithium production varies significantly, with salt lake extraction being the most cost-effective method, while higher-cost projects may face challenges in the current market environment [40][46].

2025 年 5 月 28 日 银河能化-20250528 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-05-28） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2507 合约 60.89 跌 0.64 美元/桶，环比-1.04%；Brent2507 合约 64.09 跌 0.65 美元/桶，环比-1.00%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 1.0 至 457.4 元/桶，夜盘跌 3.9 至 453.5 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.55 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周二表示，普京拒绝与基辅进行停火谈判，这是在"玩火"；这是他自周日 以来第二次发表有关普京的言论。与此同时，基辅战场再次遭遇挫折，俄罗斯军队占领了 乌克兰东北部苏梅地区的四个村庄。特朗普迄今尚未对俄罗斯实施新的重大制裁，但美国 官员表示，如果他决定实施制裁，一揽子制裁措施已准备就绪。 三位 OPEC 代表向路透表示，OPEC+本周可能会同意 7 月进一步增产，这是满足不断增长 的需求和增加市场份额计划的最新阶段。消息人士称，预计 OPEC+在周三召开 22 个成员 国全体会议时不会调整政策。但他们表示，预计 OPEC+八个成员国周六开会时将同意 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices closed slightly lower overnight, with the Brent 07 contract down 0.8%. The market driver may shift to the medium - term logic. After the US - Iran nuclear talks on Friday, the focus may return to supply - demand. With inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increase, oil prices may fluctuate weakly around the May 31 OPEC+ meeting [2] - Precious metals fell overnight. Gold is still bullish in the long - term, but currently in a volatile adjustment. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil's FU cracking spread is expected to oscillate at a high level. Low - sulfur fuel oil's unilateral trend follows crude oil, with weak supply - demand guidance [21] - In June, domestic asphalt refineries plan to produce 231 million tons, a 14.4% year - on - year increase. Demand shows seasonal improvement but is still lower year - on - year. The BU cracking spread is under pressure [22] - Overseas LPG supply is abundant and weakening. Domestic terminals have high inventory, and the short - term fundamentals have limited improvement power. The market runs weakly [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, Lun copper oscillated slightly. LME inventory continued to decline. Hold short positions in the second - half - year contracts [4] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The market is in a strong - reality situation. Test the resistance at 20300 yuan. Consider selling on rallies if it breaks through [5] - Guinea's alumina mine production impact expansion is unlikely. Spot is tight in the short - term, but the long - term is pessimistic. Don't chase short positions [6] - SMM 0 zinc is at 22,730 yuan/ton. With the end of the peak season, zinc is mainly for short - allocation [7] - Shanghai lead is running weakly. Keep an eye on consumption performance in the future [8] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are weak. Nickel iron inventory increased by 900 tons, and pure nickel inventory decreased by 2,000 tons. Consider short - entry [9] - Tin prices oscillated lower. Continue the short - allocation idea [10] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded. The market is waiting for supply - demand improvement. Short - sellers should take profit opportunistically [11] - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to decline. Supply pressure accumulates, and demand is weak. Silicon prices are expected to decline [12] - Polysilicon prices rebounded to above the cost line. In June, supply is expected to increase, and prices may run weakly [13] - Steel prices continued to decline overnight. In the off - season, demand is weak, and supply pressure is high. The market is bearish [14] - Iron ore prices oscillated weakly. Supply is in a seasonally strong stage, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may oscillate weakly [15] - Coke prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Carbon supply is abundant, and pay attention to the negative feedback [16] - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom. Supply is abundant, and don't be overly bearish [17] - Manganese silicon prices continued to decline. The fundamentals have slightly improved. Pay attention to the impact of tariffs [18] - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated narrowly. Demand is okay, and prices are still weak due to the black market [19] Group 3: Chemicals - Styrene supply increases, and inventory may rise slightly. Downstream demand is weak [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene markets are weak. Supply and demand support is limited [27] - PVC prices continue to weaken. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda is under pressure at high levels [28] - PX supply increases, and demand is expected to be low. PTA is in de - stocking. There is pressure on supply increase and demand weakening in the long - term [29] - Ethylene glycol's near - term supply - demand is good, but there will be pressure after June [30] - Short - fiber prices follow raw materials and oscillate weakly. Bottle - chip production is increasing, and consider short - term processing margin repair [31] - Glass prices are weak. Inventory pressure is high, and supply is volatile. Be cautious [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and demand is slightly decreasing. Synthetic rubber supply is decreasing, and inventory is increasing [33] - Urea futures lack upward momentum. The market oscillates weakly in the short - term [24] - Methanol supply is expected to increase significantly. The market runs weakly, and pay attention to the macro impact [25] Group 4: Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices are generally falling. Supply is loose, and there is no continuous upward driver [34] - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil prices oscillate. Supply is increasing, and they follow US soybean prices [35] - Rapeseed meal and oil are recommended to be long - biased. Rapeseed meal may be stronger [36] - Domestic soybeans oscillate. Import supply is abundant from May to July, and weather affects prices [37] - Corn prices may oscillate weakly. Supply is increasing, and pay attention to inventory changes [38] - Live pig futures oscillate weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the medium - long term [39] - Egg futures fall sharply, and spot prices rebound. Egg prices may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival [40] - Cotton prices are affected by US - China relations. Inventory is decreasing, and consider option strategies [41] - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate. Brazilian production is the focus, and domestic supply and demand are stable [42] - Apple prices are weak. Market focuses on new - season production estimates [43] - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season [44] - Pulp prices fall. Inventory is still high, and demand is weak. Consider buying on dips [45] Group 5: Others - The CCFI (European Line) may be at the end of the decline. The spot price is close to the central level. Pay attention to the peak - season price increase [20] - A - shares oscillated lower. With overseas risk preference rising, A - shares may oscillate more evenly in the short - term [46] - Treasury bond futures oscillate weakly. Directional strategies may not break through, and curve steepening needs data support [47]

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On May 27, A-share market indices declined: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18% to 3340.69, Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.61% to 10029.11, and ChiNext Index decreased 0.68% to 1991.64. Trading volume was 9989 billion yuan, down 110 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index adjusted, closing at 3839.40, down 20.71 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On May 27, Coke weighted index closed at 1365.2 yuan, down 12.8; Coking coal weighted index closed at 800.4 yuan, down 1.1. Coke's second - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton is expected to take effect on Wednesday. Some steel mills'开工 declined slightly, downstream demand weakened, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure increased. Some coking coal prices dropped, reducing coke enterprises' costs. For coking coal, some mines had production cuts, online auction failure rate rose, and inventory accumulated. Mongolian 5 raw coal price dropped to 760 - 780 yuan/ton [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the holiday, US sugar market was closed on Monday. Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract fluctuated on Tuesday, closing slightly higher, and slightly lower at night due to short - selling pressure. Analysts expect Brazil's mid - south region's May 1 - 15 sugarcane crushing volume to be 4060 million tons, down 9.9% year - on - year, and sugar production to be 229 million tons, down 11.5% year - on - year [2]. Rubber - Heavy rainfall in Thailand may affect rubber tapping. Shanghai rubber rebounded on Tuesday and declined at night. In April 2025, global light - vehicle sales reached 7.32 million units, up 6% year - on - year [2]. Palm Oil - On May 27, palm oil rebounded at a low level. The main contract P2509 closed at 8044, up 1.13%. Malaysia's May 1 - 25 palm oil exports were 991702 tons, up 7.3% from the previous month. China's palm oil commercial inventory decreased to 360,000 tons, down 50,000 tons week - on - week [3][4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures rose slightly on May 27. Trump postponed EU import tariff increase to July 9. As of May 25, 2025, US soybean planting rate was 76%, higher than 66% last year. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 172 million tons. Domestically, on May 26, soybean meal futures rose. With more soybeans arriving, soybean inventory increased, oil mills' operating rate rose, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. Short - term demand growth is limited [4]. Live Pigs - On May 27, live pig futures fluctuated at the bottom, closing at 13560 yuan/ton, down 0.29%. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, slaughterhouses have stocking demand, but fresh pork sales are poor. In the long - term, the market supply is abundant, and the futures price is bearish [5]. Shanghai Copper - Trump's threat and rising US bond yields increased pressure on risk assets. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased 1.4% year - on - year. Although high copper prices weakened domestic demand, continuous inventory reduction supported the spot price [5]. Iron Ore - On May 27, iron ore 2509 contract fell 1.76% to 698.5 yuan. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals increased slightly, port inventory decreased, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. Asphalt - On May 27, asphalt 2507 contract rose 0.03% to 3516 yuan. Capacity utilization decreased, shipments increased, but supply may rise. With the rainy season in the south, demand may be suppressed, and prices will fluctuate [6]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13285 yuan/ton. On May 28, the lowest basis price was 680 yuan/ton, and inventory decreased by 23 lots [6]. Logs - On May 27, log 2507 contract opened at 764.5, closed at 755, with an increase of 159 lots. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. Port inventory increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market entered the off - season [6][8]. Steel - On May 27, rb2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, hc2510 at 3111 yuan/ton. With the rainy season approaching, building material demand may decline seasonally, and plate consumption will enter the off - season. The steel market faces oversupply, and prices will fluctuate weakly [8]. Alumina - On May 27, ao2509 closed at 3018 yuan/ton. Tight spot supply and inventory reduction supported prices, but concerns about bauxite supply eased and increased production capacity limited price increases. The market lacks a one - sided trend [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - On May 27, al2507 closed at 20040 yuan/ton. Although there are tariff impacts, strong demand, supply disruptions, and low inventory may support prices [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate prices continued to decline. The market is in oversupply, demand growth is limited, supply may increase, and cost support is weakening. Prices will remain weak [9].