Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

Group 1 - The report outlines four phases of market dynamics affecting credit bonds, with the first phase characterized by a tight monetary policy and rising credit bond yields, followed by a recovery phase where yields compress due to increased institutional demand [6][8] - The report highlights a significant shift in credit bond strategies, indicating that during periods of rising interest rates, credit strategies outperform duration strategies, with short-end bonds performing better than long-duration strategies [9][11] - The report notes that the traditional credit cycle has led to a divergence in financing sources, with a notable shift towards central enterprises and a decrease in local government financing, indicating a two-tiered market for credit bonds [19][22] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, suggesting that while it aims to improve market efficiency, it requires complementary demand-side policies to be effective [27] - The report discusses the tightening of issuance policies for urban investment bonds, predicting a significant drop in supply over the next two years, which may affect market liquidity and pricing [19][22] - The report identifies that the financing trend for industrial bonds is expected to continue, driven by central government initiatives and a focus on "real industry" financing, with central enterprises dominating the issuance landscape [21][22] Group 3 - The report indicates that the financial sector may see a stabilization of net interest margins due to supportive central bank policies, which could enhance the market position of leading city commercial banks [25][31] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in electrical and hardware equipment, will benefit from favorable policy environments, with a recommendation to maintain a duration of around three years for investments in this sector [31][33] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the cyclical nature of demand in the steel and coal industries, suggesting that any signs of recovery should be closely observed for potential investment opportunities [31]

Macro Environment - The macro policy for 2026 is expected to focus on "stabilizing growth" and structural "rebalancing," with an economic growth target around 5% to ensure a smooth start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][5] - Export resilience is anticipated to continue, while consumption and investment are expected to gradually stabilize with policy support, and the drag from real estate on the economy is likely to lessen [4] - Inflation indicators are crucial, with a consensus on nominal GDP improvement due to inflation recovery, but uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the GDP deflator turning positive, influenced by macro policy support and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [4][5] Stock Market Outlook - Foreign institutions generally hold a neutral to optimistic view on the Chinese stock market for 2026, based on four main factors: clear policy support, stabilization of geopolitical tensions, profitability upturn for leading and tech innovation companies, and ample market liquidity [8][10] - The market's core driver is expected to shift from price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to changes in corporate profitability, as returns driven by PE have largely been reflected in asset pricing [11] - Key variables affecting asset pricing include policy support, geopolitical stability, corporate profitability, and market liquidity [11] Structural Opportunities - "Anti-involution" policies are expected to improve industry supply-demand dynamics, enhance pricing, and boost corporate profitability, particularly in high-involution sectors benefiting from supply-side optimization [12] - The push for technological self-sufficiency and AI is likely to lead to increased competitiveness for Chinese manufacturers, with ongoing policy support expected to further enhance the value of tech-related assets [12] - Shareholder returns are being prioritized, with policies encouraging dividends and buybacks, supported by a high level of free cash flow relative to total payouts [12] - Companies are expected to accelerate globalization efforts, with overseas business margins typically higher than domestic ones, potentially enhancing overall profitability for related A-share companies [12]

通胀还能持续回升吗？ —— 11 月物价数据解读 2025 证 12 证 10 证 分析师 张迪 证010-8092 -7737 证zha n gdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524060001 吕雷 证010-8092 -7780 证lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证证证S0130524080002 研究助理：薄一程 www.chinastock.com.cn 证证证证证证 证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证证 1 宏观动态报告 ⚫ 1 1 月份 CPI 环比 微跌 0.1 %（前值 0.2%），同比上涨 0.7%（前值 0.2 %）， 其中翘尾因素较上月改善约 0.6 个百分点 。整体来看 翘尾因素叠加食品拖累 减弱是 CPI 回升主因 。证证证证证证证证 0.3% 证证证 0.7% 证证证证证证证 证证证证 -0.4% 证证证证证 2.9% (证证-4.4% )证证证 CPI 证证证证证 0.54 证 证证证证证证证证证证证 证证 0.2%证证证 -0.1% 证证证证证证证证证证证 0.1% 证 核心 CPI 环 ...

2025.12. 10 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。服务和扣除能源的 工业消费品价格分别上涨0.7%和2.1%，分别影响CPI同比上涨约0.29个百分点和0.53个百分点。其 中扩内需政策措施继续显效，家用器具和服装价格分别上涨4.9%和2.0%，飞机票、家政服务和在外 餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。金饰品价格涨幅扩大至58.4%。 本文字数：1831，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 国家统计局12月10日发布最新居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据。 随着扩内需政策持续落地见效，居民消费持续恢复，11月份CPI同比上涨0.7%，为2024年3月份以 来最高。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，PPI环比上涨0.1%， 同比下降2.2%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉分析，11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，同 比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的 影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.0 ...

扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。 国家统计局12月10日发布最新居民消费价格指数（CPI）和工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）数据。 随着扩内需政策持续落地见效，居民消费持续恢复，11月份CPI同比上涨0.7%，为2024年3月份以来最 高。受国内部分行业供需结构优化、国际大宗商品价格传导等因素影响，PPI环比上涨0.1%，同比下降 2.2%。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉分析，11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，同比涨 幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动。食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上 月下拉0.54个百分点转为上拉0.04个百分点。 食品中，鲜菜价格由上月同比下降7.3%转为上涨14.5%，为连续下降9个月后首次转涨，对CPI同比的上 拉影响比上月增加约0.49个百分点；鲜果价格由上月下降2.0%转为上涨0.7%；猪肉和禽肉类价格分别同 比下降15.0%和0.6%，降幅均有收窄。 PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。 董莉娟表示，我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。综合整治" ...

Group 1: Economic Highlights - In November, production showed signs of weak improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%[1] - Industrial added value growth is expected to remain stable at 4.9%[1] - Exports rebounded to 5.9% in November, supported by an increase in working days and a reduction in production overhang effects[1] Group 2: Investment and Consumption Insights - Investment pressures may ease as the impact of debt repayment on investment diminishes, with construction investment remaining at -16% in October[2] - Service consumption is expected to improve due to the promotion of autumn holidays, despite a decline in "trade-in" programs[1] - Retail sales growth is projected at 2.7%[1] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing investment remains constrained by companies accelerating debt repayments, with accounts receivable growth dropping to 5.2%[2] - Real estate investment and sales are likely to decline further, with November housing sales down 33.1% year-on-year[2] - The "anti-involution" policy's slow progress in the manufacturing sector keeps cost rates at historically high levels, negatively impacting profits[2] Group 4: Inflation and Price Trends - November inflation indicators are expected to show improvement, with CPI projected to rise to 0.7% year-on-year[3] - PPI is anticipated to recover slightly to around -2% due to ongoing price pressures from upstream commodities[3] - Core CPI may see limited improvement due to the lagging effects of the "anti-involution" policy on downstream prices[3]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，11月"反内卷"政策推进，汽车"价格战"等会继续受到约束，"以旧换新"政策还会对覆盖范围内的家电、电子 产品价格形成一定支撑。加之11月国际金价继续大幅上涨，会给能源之外的工业消费品价格带来上涨动能。不过，受消费信心不振等影响，当前促消费政策 覆盖范围之外的商品价格内生上涨动能依然偏低。 往后看，财信金控首席经济学家伍超明对智通财经表示，低基数、"反内卷"政策以及财政增量政策落地将共同推升四季度通胀中枢水平，但在外部需求走 弱、国内稳地产与稳就业压力犹存的情况下，CPI整体回升幅度有限，低通胀格局难改。 王青预计，全年CPI累计同比将在0值附近，增速较上年回落0.2个百分点，核心CPI累计同比也会处于1.0%以下的低位。 "这背后的根本原因是楼市调整已逾4年，居民财富持续缩水，消费信心不足。另外，今年外部环境波动加剧，国际原油价格显著下跌，也在向国内CPI传 导。当前物价走势的一个重要支撑点在于，以旧换新政策发力下，汽车、家电等商品价格同比数据上行势头较为明显。这是近期核心CPI同比涨幅扩大的主 要原因。"他说。 记者 辛圆 国家统计局周三发布数据显示，11月，中国消 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of silicon material storage promotion is rising, and polysilicon leads the rise of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policy in Nigeria last weekend supports the price of lithium carbonate, and polysilicon price was once under pressure due to the increase in registered brands but is supported by the rising expectation of silicon material storage policy. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon with a possible rise in price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point of lithium carbonate may appear earlier [1]. - For industrial silicon, the cost support weakens and the silicon price falls. For polysilicon, the storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. For lithium carbonate, the slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Cost support weakens, and silicon price falls. The price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, and 421 is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The domestic inventory is 454,300 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly output in November 2025 is 402,000 tons, an 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to November is 3.871 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease. The export in October is 45,073 tons, a 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October 2025 is 12.6GW, a 30.43% month - on - month increase and 38.3% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in coal prices weakens the cost support. In December, industrial silicon production may still decline. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The inventory accumulation trend continues, and the fundamentals are weak. - **Outlook**: The price shows a weakening trend in oscillation [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. The成交 price of N - type re - feed material is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,810 lots, unchanged. The export volume in October is about 1,547.8 tons, a 58% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 20,215 tons, a 33% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in October is about 1,446 tons, a 39.1% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import from January to October 2025 is 16,123 tons, a 52.26% year - on - year decrease. The new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October 2025 is 252.87GW, a 39.5% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Main Logic**: The storage expectation of the polysilicon platform is rising, and the price is highly volatile. The supply in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, and the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates widely [7][9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price. On December 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.15% to 92,800 yuan/ton; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 30,399 lots to 1,023,470 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 lots to 12,920 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The resumption of production at the Jiuxiawo mine may cause price fluctuations. If the Jiuxiawo mine resumes production, the supply may turn loose in late December. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10][11]. 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided. 3.3中信期货商品指数 (CITIC Futures Commodity Index) - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index is 2,242.53, a 1.08% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2,560.81, a 1.08% decrease; the industrial product index is 2,185.44, a 1.38% decrease. The new energy commodity index on December 9, 2025, is 434.41, with a daily decrease of 1.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.05%, a 1 - month increase of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.34% [53][55].

Group 1 - The A-share market achieved multiple historical records in 2025, with a significant recovery in market confidence driven by technology and new consumption [2][14] - The total market capitalization of A-shares surpassed 100 trillion yuan in June 2025, and trading volume reached a historical high in August, indicating deep recovery in market participation and confidence [14] - The rise of new consumption, exemplified by successful products like Labubu and the global box office success of "Nezha 2," injected new growth momentum into the consumption sector [14] Group 2 - After the National Day holiday, the market experienced fluctuations, particularly in the technology sector, due to both external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and internal profit-taking [15] - Despite short-term volatility, the core narrative supporting market optimism remains unchanged, with expectations of a reasonably ample domestic liquidity environment and gradual recovery in corporate earnings [15] Group 3 - The market style in 2026 is expected to become more balanced and refined, moving away from being dominated by a single style [16] - The investment focus is anticipated to shift towards AI applications, with a transition from infrastructure to actual applications and commercialization [16] - Companies with solid performance in AI applications, domestic substitution, and overseas expansion are likely to attract market attention due to their high growth potential [16] Group 4 - From a financial perspective, 2026 may exhibit characteristics of "profit handover," with key areas of focus including the "computing power-storage-power-manufacturing" chain and the commercialization of application endpoints [17] - Monitoring order and profit recovery progress will be crucial, alongside attention to supply-side reforms and capital market optimizations [17] Group 5 - The key investment factor in 2026 is expected to be the ability to deliver on fundamental performance, with a shift in market scrutiny towards the quality of earnings growth and sustainability of business models [18] - Companies with core technologies and clear commercialization paths in sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and high-end manufacturing are likely to stand out [18] Group 6 - Positive factors include ongoing anti-involution policies improving the corporate profit environment and a long-term trend of asset allocation towards equity markets, potentially leading to substantial incremental capital [19] - The upward trend in industries like AI, semiconductors, and smart vehicles may provide clear investment lines [19] Group 7 - Opportunities are expected to arise in new consumption areas, particularly those integrating AI technology, such as intelligent companionship and interactive entertainment [21] - The AI computing infrastructure and consumer electronics driven by AI innovations are anticipated to see significant growth, alongside the international expansion of healthcare sectors [21]