经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 李智能 | 0755-22940456 | lizn@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980516060001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 2025 年 5 月国内宏观经济数据将在 2025 年 6 月陆续公布，国信证券经济研究所提前给出 2025 年 5 月主要 经济数据的预测值。 以下是 2025 年 5 月主要经济数据预测： 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 结论：5 月国内经济增长动能保持稳健态势。预计 5 月国内 CPI 环比约为-0.4%，CPI 同比回落至-0.4%；5 月 PPI 环比或约为-0.3%，PPI 同比继续回落至-3.2%；预计 5 月工业增加值同比小幅回落至 5.5 ...

| 产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 2025年6月3日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | | | 前值 | 日 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | | 122325 | 121525 | 800 | 0.66% | 7C/HT | | 1#金川镇 | | 123525 | 122625 | 900 | 0.73% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇升贴水 | | 2600 | 2500 | 100 | 4.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | | 121175 | 120375 | 800 | 0.66% | 元/肥 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | | 250 | 250 | O | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | | -203 | -196 | -7 | 3.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | | -3496 | -3085 | -411 ...

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

东方金诚宏观研究 5 月稳增长政策发力叠加关税战降温，带动宏观经济景气度回升 ———— 2025 年 5 月 PMI 数据点评 王青 闫骏 冯琳 事件：根据国家统计局公布的数据，2025 年 5 月，中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，比 4 月上升 0.5 个百分点；5 月非制造业商务活动指数为 50.3%，比 4 月下降 0.1 个百分点，其中，建筑 业商务活动指数为 51.0%，比 4 月下降 0.9 个百分点，服务业 PMI 指数为 50.2%，比 4 月上升 0.1 个百 分点；5 月综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.4%，比 4 月上升 0.2 个百分点。 5 月 PMI 数据要点解读如下： 5 月制造业 PMI 指数上升 0.5 个百分点，符合预期。历史数据显示，5 月制造业 PMI 指数季节性规 律并不明显。由此，当月制造业 PMI 指数主要受关税战、宏观政策及经济基本面牵动。5 月制造业 PMI 指数回升，背后主要有两个原因：一是 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议部署"加强超常规逆周期调节"， "加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"。5 月 7 日央行等部门推出包括降息降准在内的一揽子金 ...

研究报告 甲醇月报 基本面依旧偏弱，未来关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 5 月，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，5 月甲醇供给增加较为明显，而 甲醇下游主力产品产能利用率下降。供需偏弱，使得企业出货不 理想，进而导致甲醇企业库存上升。港口库存方面，由于进口增 加，使得 5 月甲醇港口库存同样上升。偏弱的基本面使得 5 月国 内甲醇价格下跌明显，进而导致甲醇企业利润下降。5 月外围甲 醇市场同样呈现需求不足，国际甲醇价格同样呈现下跌。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 6 月预计甲醇产量将继续增加，供给端仍是甲醇的主 ...

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is at 49.5%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, still in the contraction zone[4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating a return to the expansion zone[4] - The new orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points, but remains below the levels seen in March (49.0%) and April[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 50.9%, remaining in the expansion zone for four consecutive months[4] - Large enterprises' PMI increased to 50.7%, up 1.5 percentage points, while medium enterprises' PMI fell to 47.5%, down 1.3 percentage points[5] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The raw materials price index is at 46.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing price pressure[4] - The finished goods price index is at 44.7%, also down 0.1 percentage points, suggesting weak downstream demand[4] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.4%, up 0.4 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index is at 46.5%, down 0.8 percentage points[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The production activity expectation index for manufacturing is at 52.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, indicating improved business sentiment[6] - The overall economic environment shows a structural characteristic where supply exceeds demand, necessitating policy support to alleviate price pressures[4]

2025年06月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 商 品 研 究 观点与策略 | 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 6 | | 氧化铝：关注检修停产情况 | 6 | | 锌：承压运行 | 8 | | 铅：区间运行 | 9 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 10 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 黄金：假期间俄乌风波再起 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 白银：跟随反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日 ...

● 本报记者 连润 5月份，我国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）比上月上升0.5个百分点，制造业景气水平改善；出口集装箱 运价指数回升，港口货物吞吐量维持较高水平。 专家认为，近期公布的多项先行指标传递出的信号显示，在稳增长政策持续发力背景下，二季度我国经 济运行有望延续平稳态势。但也要看到，当前国际环境变数仍较多，多重风险交织叠加，经济回升向好 基础还需巩固，政策需进一步加力。 制造业PMI回升 数据显示，5月份，新出口订单指数和进口指数分别为47.5%和47.1%，比上月上升2.8和3.7个百分点。 赵庆河表示，调查中部分涉美企业反映外贸订单加速重启，进出口情况有所改善。 作为观察出口情况的重要指标，集装箱运价指数和港口货物吞吐量环比上涨。 上海航运交易所发布的最新数据显示，5月30日当周，中国出口集装箱运价指数报1117.61点，较上期上 涨0.9%。 上海航运交易所发布的中国出口集装箱运输市场周度报告显示，5月30日当周，中国出口集装箱运输市 场保持持续向好态势，外部形势缓和的利好消息继续支撑市场，多数航线市场运价继续走高，带动综合 指数上涨。 制造业PMI是重要的宏观经济先行指标。国家统计局5月31日发 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the life and contributions of Stanley Fischer, a prominent economist who significantly influenced global economic policy through his roles in various financial institutions and academia [1][2]. Group 1: Personal Background and Career - Stanley Fischer was born in Zambia in October 1943 and held degrees from the London School of Economics and MIT, where he earned his PhD in 1969 [2]. - He served as the first deputy managing director of the IMF from 1994 to 2001, where he played a key role in managing several major financial crises, including the Mexican crisis in 1994 and the Asian financial crisis in 1997 [2][4]. - Fischer returned to Israel in 2005 to become the Governor of the Bank of Israel, where he implemented significant monetary policies during the global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: Contributions to Economic Policy - Under Fischer's leadership, the Bank of Israel was the first to lower interest rates at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis and was also the first to raise rates as recovery began [4]. - He introduced inflation targeting and improved exchange rate management, leading to the Bank of Israel being recognized as one of the most efficient central banks globally [4]. - Fischer later served as Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017, where he warned against the risks of deregulating financial markets [4]. Group 3: Academic Influence - Fischer was a prolific author and educator, co-authoring influential textbooks in macroeconomics and establishing the NBER Macroeconomics Annual, which became a significant platform for macroeconomic policy research [5]. - He mentored many prominent economists, including former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and former ECB President Mario Draghi, who credit him with shaping their careers [5][6]. - His unique teaching style included informal settings that encouraged student engagement, such as running seminars while jogging [6]. Group 4: Legacy and Recognition - Fischer's impact on global monetary policy and economic education has been widely recognized, with accolades from various leaders in the field, including former IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers [6][7]. - His passing was mourned by many in the economic community, highlighting his role as a mentor and visionary leader [7].

Core Insights - Stanley Fischer, a prominent economist and former central bank leader, passed away on May 31 at the age of 81, leaving a significant impact on global economic policy [1][3][4] Group 1: Career Achievements - Fischer served as the Governor of the Bank of Israel from 2005 to 2013, where he was proactive in monetary policy during the 2008 global financial crisis, being the first to cut interest rates and later the first to raise them as recovery began [4] - He held the position of Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014 to 2017, where he warned against the risks of deregulation under the Trump administration, emphasizing the need for the U.S. to be a stabilizing force in the global economy [4][5] - Fischer's tenure at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 1994 to 2001 was marked by his leadership during several major financial crises, including the Mexican crisis and the Asian financial crisis, reshaping the IMF's role in the global financial system [3][4] Group 2: Academic Contributions - Fischer was a distinguished academic, having taught at MIT where he influenced many prominent economists, including former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and former ECB President Mario Draghi [1][5][6] - He co-authored significant textbooks in economics, including "Macroeconomics," which has been updated multiple times since its first publication in 1978, and contributed to the establishment of the "NBER Macroeconomics Annual," providing a platform for macroeconomic policy research [5][6] - His unique teaching style and mentorship left a lasting impression on his students, fostering a collaborative and engaging academic environment [6][7] Group 3: Legacy and Recognition - Fischer's dual career as an academic and policymaker earned him widespread recognition, including being a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the Econometric Society [4][5] - His influence on global monetary policy and economic governance is acknowledged by peers, with many citing his contributions as unparalleled in the past generation [6][7]