Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The market's focus has been shifting between macro and geopolitical factors, with oil prices in a range - bound consolidation. Attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations [2] - The gasoline crack has rebounded recently, but its seasonal performance is still weaker than in the previous two years. The aromatics blending demand for gasoline is not promising this year, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha [2] - PXN has rebounded from a low level due to macro - level positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants. In May, domestic PX maintenance plants will gradually restart, and PX will continue to draw down inventory under the commissioning of new PTA plants [2] - The PTA spot basis has weakened, and the processing fees have declined. With the high - operation of downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to draw down inventory significantly in May. As the PTA price rebounds, the maintenance of PTA plants is postponed, and the supply will gradually return [3] - The polyester operating rate has increased, and downstream orders have improved after the positive progress of the China - US negotiations and tariff reduction. The inventory of filament has decreased significantly, and the average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3] - The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - chips has increased, and the market supply is gradually rising, which may put pressure on the market price. Attention should be paid to the maintenance news of bottle - chip plants due to rising costs [4] - After the continuous and rapid rise, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer at low levels, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the support from the crude oil cost side [5] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, and various types of warehouse receipts for PTA, PX, and PF [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of various filament products, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [48][50][60] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover the load of polyester staple fiber, factory equity inventory days, physical and equity inventories, and the operating rates and processing fees of related yarns [71][73][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the load of polyester bottle - chips, factory inventory days, processing fees, export profits, and various price spreads [91][93][99]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force is slowing down [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Due to the resonance of the black - metal sector and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, they are in weak oscillations [2][13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in bottom - level oscillations [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: With the increase in coal mine inventories, it is in a weak and oscillating state [2][22]. - **Logs**: In a weak oscillation [2][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures closed at 725.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The import and domestic ore prices had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also showed different fluctuations [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6% last month), and the 1 - year LPR was 3% (down from 3.1% last month) [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: RB2510 closed at 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 closed at 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: South Korea continued to impose anti - dumping duties on stainless steel sheets from China, etc. In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, with daily output down 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, Hebei had the highest crude steel output [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of different contracts decreased. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide had different changes, and the price spreads also fluctuated [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In April 2025, China's silicon - manganese exports and imports, manganese ore imports data were released. South32 resumed Australian manganese ore exports, and NMT announced the June 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: JM2509 closed at 838.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.77%); J2509 closed at 1407.5 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.44%). Spot prices and basis, spreads had different changes [18]. - **Price and Position Situation**: Northern port coking coal quotes and May 20 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On May 20, for JM2509, long positions increased by 6841 hands, short positions increased by 6888 hands; for J2509, long positions increased by 750 hands, short positions increased by 582 hands [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: ZC2506 had no trading, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were given. On May 20, for ZC2506, long and short positions both decreased by 0 hands [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [29].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The cost support has weakened due to the decline in raw materials and electricity prices during the wet season in the southwest region. There are no bright spots on the consumer side, and high industry inventories are suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the southwest and the impact of macro - sentiment [2]. - In the short term, actual spot transactions are extremely rare. Downstream enterprises are mainly consuming inventory. Near - month contracts are still trading based on delivery games, while far - month contracts are trading on weak reality and weak expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price continued to bottom out. The main contract 2507 opened at 8150 yuan/ton and closed at 8130 yuan/ton, a change of (-155) yuan/ton or (-1.87)% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2507 was 155,038 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,384 lots, a change of - 49 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 8800 - 9100 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9600 - 10100 (-150) yuan/ton. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8100 - 8300 (-100) yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest region also continued to decline. The price of 97 silicon also declined [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. It is reported that the market trading volume is expected to recover faster in mid - to late May, and the low - level inventory reduction of monomer enterprises has been effective recently. Although the operation of monomer enterprises in North and Southwest China has recovered, those in the Northwest are still in the maintenance period [1]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On May 19, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 36,900 yuan/ton and closed at 37,150 yuan/ton, a change of 0.51% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 28,688 (32,702 the previous day) lots, and the trading volume was 72,986 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The quotation of polysilicon re - feedstock was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type silicon was 37.00 - 39.00 (-0.75) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased month - on - month. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 25.00 tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.27%, the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a month - on - month change of 7.22%, the weekly polysilicon output was 21,400.00 tons, with a month - on - month change of 0.00%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW, a month - on - month change of 0.50% [4]. - **Strategy** - For single - side trading, focus on range operations. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers** - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (-0.02) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 (-0.02) yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells** - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; and HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. - **Components** - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [6]. Factors to Watch - Resumption of production in the southwest and changes in the operation in the northwest [2][5]. - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [5]. - Policy disturbances [5]. - Macro and capital sentiment [2][5]. - Operation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. - Impact of industry self - discipline on upstream and downstream operations [7]. - Impact of futures listing on the spot market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper prices due to expected macroeconomic improvements, despite current trade tensions and inventory fluctuations [3]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory decreased by 6% [4]. - As of May 16, 2025, domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 820,000 tons, down 9% from the previous week [4]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 432,000 tons as of May 9, 2025, a decrease of 0.6% [4]. Raw Materials - In March 2025, China's copper concentrate production was 157,000 tons, up 25.4% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year [5]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 1,667 RMB/ton as of May 16, 2025, an increase of 372 RMB/ton from May 9 [5]. - Domestic old scrap copper production in April 2025 was 88,000 tons, down 20% month-on-month and 22.5% year-on-year [5]. Smelting - In April 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1,125,700 tons, a 0.3% increase month-on-month and a 14.3% increase year-on-year [6]. - The TC spot price as of May 16, 2025, was -43.03 USD/pound, reflecting a slight increase but remaining at the lowest level since September 2007 [6]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative net import of electrolytic copper was 725,000 tons, a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year [6]. Demand - The cable industry accounted for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, with a cable enterprise operating rate of 83.39% as of May 15, 2025, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week [7]. - The air conditioning sector, which represents about 13% of domestic copper demand, saw copper tube production of 189,000 tons in April 2025, down 1.8% month-on-month and 7.1% year-on-year [7]. - Copper rod production, which constitutes about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 55.0% in April 2025, up 0.6 percentage points but down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Futures - As of May 16, 2025, the SHFE copper active contract position was 180,000 lots, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, placing it at the 49th percentile since 1995 [8]. - The COMEX non-commercial net long position was 22,000 lots as of May 13, 2025, down 0.8% week-on-week, at the 58th percentile since 1990 [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（5.12~5.16） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜震荡偏强运行，沪铜主力合约上涨0.89%，收报于78140元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价, 川普上台后，中美关税回归前期，对全球带来积极情绪，商品普遍好转。国内方面，消费进入旺季， 等待消费指引，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。 库存方面，铜库存LME库存179375吨，上周出现小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增27437吨至108142吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI PMI下行 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2023供需紧平衡，2 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, with expected reduced shipments in the coming weeks. New Zealand's shipments will seasonally decrease, and the current FOB price continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. With a significant expected reduction in arrivals this week, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on May 16 compared to May 15, with declines of - 0.63%, - 0.44%, and - 0.50% respectively. The 7 - 9, 7 - 11 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 11 spread increased. The basis of 07, 09, and 11 contracts increased [2] - Spot prices of most radiation pine at ports remained unchanged on May 16, except for the price of spruce 11.8 at Rizhao Port, which increased by 4.72%. The FOB price of radiation pine 4 - meter medium A decreased by - 3.51%, while that of spruce 11.8 meters remained unchanged [2] - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased slightly, and the import theoretical cost decreased by - 4% [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly port shipments in April increased by 24.17% compared to March, reaching 200.3 million cubic meters. The number of ships at the port increased by 13.79% [2] - Weekly major port inventories decreased. As of April 25, the national inventory decreased by 2.28% to 351 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3] Group 6: Demand - Weekly average daily log out - bound volume decreased. As of April 25, the national average daily out - bound volume decreased by 10% to 6.15 million cubic meters, with decreases in Shandong and Jiangsu [3]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南美大豆产量基本确定，美豆种植开启，未来十五天降雨恢复，按照 CPC 月度展 望来看，6 月降雨天气展望顺利。国内方面，国内港口及油厂大豆持续累库，随着 | | | | 开机率上升，豆粕供应将逐步缓解，逐步进入累库周期。饲料企业库存偏低，存在 | | 豆粕 | 短期偏空震荡 | 补库需求。5 月豆粕累库速度预计较为缓和。5-7 月月均进口预估 1000 万吨以上， | | | | 供应有逐步增加趋势。中美贸易缓和利空豆粕，但由于 23%的关税依然存在，美豆 | | | | 暂无性价比，对豆粕价格实际利空影响有限。5 月美农报告偏利多。豆粕近日窄幅 | | | | 整理，但短期空头格局依然占据主导，市场在等待新指引。主力【2865，2930】 | | | | 截止本周最新库存数据显示，油厂菜籽库存环比调减，菜粕库存环比调增，但 5 月 | | | | 至 7 月菜籽进口同比大幅下降，加上加籽进口利润不佳，长期进口量预期偏低，供 | | 菜粕 | 短期下跌 | 应展望压力减轻。近日菜粕小幅反弹，但短期空头格 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view of Shanghai nickel is that it will oscillate. In the short - term, the spot trading is poor, the downstream purchases on a need - basis, the ore price may be under pressure, and the stainless steel has a certain negative impact on the nickel price. Although the new energy vehicle data is good, the medium - and long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The basis is positive, but the inventory and the position situation are negative [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel is also expected to oscillate. The spot price is flat, the nickel ore price is falling, and the nickel iron price shows signs of stopping the decline. The basis is positive, but the inventory situation is negative [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **沪镍**: On May 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 124,060, up 460 from the previous day. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 124,000, down 1,050 [11]. - **不锈钢**: The average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5, and the price remained unchanged compared with the previous day [4]. 3.2 Nickel and Stainless Steel Inventory - **沪镍**: As of May 16, the LME nickel inventory was 195,222, a decrease of 3,924; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 23,501, an increase of 157 [2][14]. - **不锈钢**: On May 16, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.1083 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous period. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 157,878, a decrease of 837 [4][18][19]. 3.3 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Price - On May 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 58.5 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 31 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [22]. 3.4 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,256, the scrap steel production cost was 13,825, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,005 [24]. 3.5 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price of nickel was 127,134 yuan per ton [27].

立期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】12925 2025年5月16日 我就必 Z0019144 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 5月15日 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2593.8 | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2760.0 | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4880.0 | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5100.0 | | SH2505 | 2535.0 | | SH2509 | 2567.0 | | SH基差 | 58.8 | | CHOCAL SEDO | 000 | | SH星差 | 58.8 | 224.8 | -166.0 | -73.9% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SH2505-2509 | -32.0 | -161.0 | 129.0 | 80.1% | | V2505 | 4899.0 | 4860.0 | 39.0 | 0.8% | | V2509 | 5041.0 | 4986.0 | 55.0 | 1.1% | | V基差 | -19.0 | -80.0 | 61. ...

苯乙烯日报 | 2025-05-16 港口基差回落 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.30万吨（+0.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费186美元/吨（+12美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国 加工费174美元/吨（+17美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差31.7美元/吨（-22.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2 价差-15元/吨（+20元/吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差251元/吨（+7元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润331元/吨（-27元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存56700吨（-11800吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存44900吨（-8600吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率71.3%（-0.9%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润240元/吨（+0元/吨），PS生产利润-210元/吨（-100元/吨），ABS生产利润363元/吨（+747 元/吨）。EPS开工率62.34%（+14.96%），PS开工率57.10%（+0.80%），ABS开工率67.39%（-1.61%），下游开工季 节性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯方面，恒力苯乙烯装置故障，后续仍有浙石化检修，本周苯乙 ...