Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Market has a bearish outlook on Malaysian palm oil inventory, putting downward pressure on external palm oil prices. The Dalian palm oil is in a rebound phase after an over - decline, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the resistance in the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - China will suspend retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products starting from the 10th, but US soybeans still face a 13% tariff, making them relatively expensive. There is no evidence of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, so CBOT soybeans lack the momentum to rise continuously. US biodiesel policy uncertainty affects the industrial use of US soybean oil, causing CBOT soybean oil to trade in a narrow range. Domestically, soybean supply is abundant, and the basis price may fluctuate within a certain range [1]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is abundant, causing the raw sugar price to remain weak and reach a five - year low. The domestic sugar market is less affected by the decline due to import quotas. There is an expectation of a delayed start of the sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, and the market consumption is mainly on - demand, with general trading volume. The sugar price is expected to move weakly in a volatile manner [3]. Pork - The market's reluctance to sell and the increase in secondary fattening have supported the pig price to be slightly stronger. According to the planned November slaughter volume, the overall slaughter progress will slow down, which may boost the November pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 reverse spread and be cautiously bullish on single - side operations [5]. Cotton - The upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure, but the pressure is not concentrated due to cost differences between northern and southern Xinjiang and pre - hedging of some new cotton. There is cost support at the lower level. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished - product inventory pressure is not large, and textile mills have a rigid demand for cotton. In the short term, the cotton price may trade in a range [7]. Corn - As the early high - moisture corn is released and the weather improves, farmers' willingness to sell is price - sensitive. Due to snow and transportation issues in the Northeast and price support in North China, the supply volume has decreased, and the price has rebounded locally. In November, there is still selling pressure from the concentrated supply of corn, but there is also cost and purchase - storage policy support. The demand side is cautious, and the corn price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may weaken when the selling pressure emerges [8]. Meal - The demand for US soybeans is not well - supported due to the 13% tariff, and it is difficult for US soybeans to continue rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but there is strong cost support. The near - term shipping schedule has a negative crushing margin, and there is a 7.5 million - ton supply gap from November to January. The soybean meal price is expected to trade in a range [12]. Eggs - The inventory of laying hens in November is expected to remain relatively stable at a high level, and the egg supply pressure persists. The terminal market demand is general, and the egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom [15]. Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 7, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8390 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of Y2601 was 8188 yuan, and the basis was 206 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.69% to 26014 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong on November 7 was 8560 yuan, up 0.23%. The futures price of P2601 was 8660 yuan, and the basis was - 100 yuan. The盘面 import cost was 9102.5 yuan, and the import profit was - 411 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu on November 7 was 9800 yuan, up 0.20%. The futures price of OI601 was 9533 yuan, and the basis was 267 yuan [1]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of SR2601 was 5457 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of SR2605 was 5397 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.13 cents/pound, down 0.63% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and the basis was 383 yuan, up 5.80%. The spot price in Kunming was 5650 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the basis was 253 yuan, down 6.99% [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales volume was 1048.00 million tons, up 9.17%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60% [3]. Pork - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of LH2605 was 12005 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The price of LH2601 was 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 140 yuan, down 64.71% [5]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 11950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Shandong was 12050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The spot price in Sichuan was 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 162310, up 1.03%. The weekly white - striped pork price was 0 yuan, down 100%. The weekly piglet price was 17 yuan/kg, down 15% [5]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of CF2605 was 13590 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of CF2601 was 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.48 cents/pound, down 1.44% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton was 14678 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The CC Index: 3128B was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The FC Index:M: 1% was 13087 yuan/ton, down 0.83% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, down 4.3%. The import volume was 10 million tons, up 42.9%. The textile industry's inventory year - on - year was - 25% [7]. Corn - **Corn**: On November 7, the price of C2601 was 2149 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The basis was 11 yuan, up 375%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 92 yuan, down 2.22%. The import profit was 214 yuan, up 9.49% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2601 was 2462 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The basis was 48 yuan, up 17.07%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 98 yuan, down 2.08% [8]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 3058 yuan, down 0.33%. The basis was 2 yuan, up 125%. The Brazilian 2 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 43 yuan, up 295.5% [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 0.39%. The futures price of RM2601 was 2539 yuan, down 0.39%. The basis was 11 yuan, unchanged. The Canadian 1 - month shipping schedule's crushing margin was 757 yuan, up 3.27% [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On November 7, the price of JD12 was 3219 yuan/500KG, down 0.25%. The price of JD01 was 3391 yuan/500KG, up 0.15%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, down 8.18% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying hen farm price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 3.12%. The basis was - 196 yuan/500KG, up 33.66% [15]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged. The price of culled chickens was 4.03 yuan/jin, down 1.95%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.38, up 1.28%. The breeding profit was - 24.44 yuan/feather, up 6.36% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: November 9, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased. In the medium term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, without chasing short positions. The nr - br spread is expected to oscillate at a high level [2][4]. - Butadiene is in a weak operating state. In the short term, the low absolute price drives downstream replenishment, leading to improved trading and price stabilization. In the medium - long term, supply pressure remains the primary contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - During the cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Zhenhua New Materials were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate further declined. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%, and the production capacity utilization rate was 66.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88 percentage points. It is expected that Yangzi Petrochemical's butadiene rubber plant will restart in the next cycle, and the Maoming butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant are scheduled for maintenance at the end of November and in December respectively [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises increased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain stable with a slight downward trend in the next cycle. The production of most enterprises will remain stable to meet order demands, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of alternative demand, the current spread between the nr - br main contracts remains high, and the alternative demand also remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15%. During the cycle, the supply of raw material butadiene was sufficient, and the negotiation focus continued to decline. Under the continuous negative drag of the cost side, industry players generally had a clear expectation of the continuous decline of the recent market. Downstream price - pressing procurement led to a significant decline in the negotiation focus of private resources. At the same time, the output was affected by the maintenance of some production enterprises, the circulating supply of goods was limited, resulting in the spot offer being significantly higher than that of private resources, and the sales performance was blocked. The inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased [5]. 3.1.4 Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 10,400 yuan/ton. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support for the lower - end valuation to the nr - br spread providing support for the lower - end valuation. For the upper - end valuation, 10,300 - 10,400 yuan/ton on the futures market may be the high point of the fundamental upper - end valuation. When the main contract BR2501 has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (the single - month holding cost is around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity of holding spot and shorting futures on the market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upside space of the futures market [5]. 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - In the current cycle (from October 31 to November 6, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 109,200 tons, an increase of 5,100 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 4.85%. During the week, the plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Guangzhou Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical remained shut down, but the plants of Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical resumed production, resulting in a continuous increase in output. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be around 112,500 tons, continuing to increase from the current cycle. There are no new plant shutdown and maintenance plans in the next cycle, and the previously restarted plants will stably release output, leading to a continuous recovery of the output of domestic operating plants. At the same time, pay close attention to the output of Guangxi Petrochemical [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, as butadiene plants undergo maintenance in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber procurement will decrease. In the ABS sector, the inventory pressure is relatively high, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only be maintained at a constant level, with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate has slightly increased, and the rigid demand for butadiene procurement remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In the current cycle (from October 30 to November 6, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples fluctuated slightly, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.67% from last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased by 3.71% month - on - month compared with last week. During the cycle, some plants resumed production, and at the same time, the significant decline in the market led to a slowdown in the trading rhythm, resulting in inventory accumulation for some suppliers. The inventory of sample ports decreased by 6.88% month - on - month compared with last week. Although there were imported vessels arriving at the port during the week, the normal consumption of downstream raw material inventories led to a decrease in the inventory of sample ports. Although the short - term tradable supply is limited, the import volume remains high, and merchants' sentiment remains cautious. Pay attention to future inventory changes [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are under pressure to oscillate at a low level due to the game between high smelting inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. There is support below the nickel price while the inventory is accumulating at a high level, and the long - term volatility may increase [1]. - The stainless - steel fundamentals lack upward drivers, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The overall fundamentals still face pressure, and it is expected to be in a bottom - grinding state [2]. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Nickel Fundamentals - Refined nickel's internal and external explicit inventories are accumulating again, and the market expects a slowdown in implicit restocking. The supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak. The proportion of using ferronickel to replace iron plates in the nickel alloy end has increased, and the production of pure nickel is expected to increase. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term still restricts the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel [1]. - Although the fundamentals of non - standard nickel have improved marginally, the conversion of refined nickel to non - standard nickel production has not yet resolved the inventory accumulation contradiction of refined nickel [1]. - The uncertainty of Indonesia's supply governance policy makes short - term sellers lack confidence. The nickel ore premium has stabilized and even slightly increased, strengthening the support for the bottom of the nickel ore price [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - The real - world fundamentals lack upward drivers. The peak season is not prosperous, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The post - real - estate cycle consumption is weak, and the effectiveness of terminal subsidy policies is decreasing. The apparent consumption growth rate has slightly declined, and inventory accumulation mainly occurs in the factory warehouse. The overall fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - The supply elasticity is sufficient, and there is limited upward imagination space for stainless steel. The estimated supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and the cost has decreased slightly. The downward space is also limited [2]. Inventory Tracking - On November 7, China's 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1246 tons to 32,634 tons, the spot inventory increased by 988 tons to 14,276 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 300 tons to 3770 tons. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [3]. - On November 7, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by - 1, + 8, and 0 month - on - month to 4, 9, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory on November 7 changed by - 1 month - on - month to 12.4 days, and the ternary material inventory on November 6 changed by - 0.2 month - on - month to 6.9 days [4]. - On October 31, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,564 tons, with a steady and slight increase month - on - month and a 27% year - on - year increase. In October, the SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a 9% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month increase. On November 6, the SMM stainless - steel social inventory remained stable with a slight decrease to 946,000 tons, the Steel Union's stainless - steel social total inventory was 1.034 million tons, with a 0.29% week - on - week increase, and the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 639,500 tons, with a 1.90% week - on - week decrease [4]. Market News - On September 12, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month [5]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [6]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit claim plan documents and place claim guarantees until 2025 [6]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed before November 15 this year. According to the transition clause, the 2026 RKAB approved by the minister or governor before the entry into force of this ministerial order can still be used as the basis for exploration or production operations until March 31, 2026 [6]. - US President Trump claimed on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [6]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for projects producing restricted products through the OSS platform [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the oilseed market, Sino-US trade relaxation leads to China's plan to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans, causing a rebound in US soybean prices and cost - driven support for soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the aquaculture industry limit the upside of soybean meal prices. The rapeseed meal market has a generally loose supply - demand situation, with uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports supporting prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. - For the oil market, US soybean price rebounds support soybean oil prices, but high oil mill operating rates, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices. Palm oil has significant supply pressure due to high production in major producing areas and weak demand. Canola oil has a tightening supply due to uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and falling domestic rapeseed arrivals, with its decline being relatively small [39][42]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal - **Price Influencing Factors**: US soybean price rebounds due to Sino - US trade relaxation, supporting soybean meal prices. However, sufficient domestic port soybean inventories and weak demand from the loss - making aquaculture industry limit price increases [7]. - **Profit and Supply**: Oil mill crushing profits need to be repaired, and mills have a strong willingness to support prices. But high domestic port soybean inventories create supply pressure [7]. 2. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall supply - demand is loose, with limited rapeseed meal crushing volume. The low - level soybean - rapeseed meal price difference suppresses substitution demand [7]. - **Price Support**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports support prices, while the end of the aquaculture demand peak season weakens demand support [7]. 3. Soybean Oil - **Positive Factors**: The rebound of US soybean futures prices supports soybean oil futures prices [39]. - **Negative Factors**: High oil mill operating rates, the psychology of supporting soybean meal and selling off soybean oil, increasing inventory, and falling crude oil prices put pressure on soybean oil prices [39]. 4. Palm Oil - **Supply**: High production in Indonesia and Malaysia leads to sufficient inventory and significant supply pressure [39]. - **Demand**: Weak demand from India and potential delays in Indonesia's B50 plan, along with falling international oil prices and a strong US dollar, weaken market attractiveness [39]. 5. Canola Oil - **Supply**: Uncertainties in Canadian rapeseed imports and low domestic rapeseed arrivals lead to a tightening supply and continuous inventory reduction [42]. - **Price Movement**: It follows the decline of other oils in the short term, but its decline is smaller due to supply concerns and inventory reduction, while high domestic inventory and the decline of soybean and palm oils limit its rebound [42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel products may show a volatile trend after challenging the previous low support level, as the arrival volume of iron ore at ports has increased significantly, port inventories are accumulating, iron ore valuations are relatively high, the consumption demand for finished products has entered the off - season, and the subsequent improvement in apparent demand is difficult. Additionally, recent macro - sentiment has weakened, and iron ore prices have declined while coking coal prices have corrected [3]. - The iron ore market is in a short - term pattern of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". With high global shipments, accumulating port inventories, shrinking steel mill profits, falling hot metal production, and high finished product inventory pressure, the upside potential for iron ore prices is limited [22]. - The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and short - term prices may face adjustments. However, in the long - term, due to policies restricting coking coal supply elasticity and upcoming winter storage, the downward adjustment space for coking coal spot prices may be limited. If coking coal supply tightens in the fourth quarter and winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black industry may rise [34]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile, as they have returned to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand after the macro - sentiment subsided, but are supported by the cost side [46]. - The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken due to the renewed expectation of glass cold repair. Although the cost side is expected to be firm, without production cuts, the valuation has limited upward elasticity. The medium - to long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high, restricting prices, but there is cost support below [55]. - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe will be gradually implemented this month, which may affect market supply and sentiment, but its impact is considered limited as the off - season approaches and the middle - stream inventory is high. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery. Structurally, without unexpected production cuts, the price of the 01 contract of glass will tend to decline, but with cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3034, 3095, and 3132 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding price changes compared to November 6. The closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3245, 3254, and 3276 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different regions also showed certain changes on November 7 compared to November 6. For example, the汇总 price of螺纹钢 in China was 3226 yuan/ton, and the汇总 price of热卷 in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton [10][12]. - The卷螺差 and基差 of螺纹 steel and hot - rolled coils also had corresponding values and changes [16][10]. - The ratios of螺纹/铁矿 and螺纹/焦炭 remained stable on November 7 compared to November 6 [19]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760.5, 740, and 722 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding基差 values. The prices of different iron ore varieties such as日照PB粉,日照卡粉, and日照超特 also decreased compared to November 6 [23]. - **Fundamentals**: - The日均铁水产量 was 234.22 million tons on November 7, showing a decreasing trend compared to previous periods. The 45港到港量 increased significantly, and the 45港库存 also continued to accumulate [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the仓单 costs and基差 of coking coal from different sources (such as唐山蒙5,口岸蒙5, etc.) and coke (such as日照港湿熄,晋中湿熄, etc.) had corresponding values and changes [37]. - The期货月差 of coking coal and coke also showed certain trends [37]. - **Fundamentals**: - The即期焦化利润 improved slightly, but most coking plants still suffered serious losses. The demand for coking coal and coke has reached a phased peak, and the number of steel mills under maintenance has increased [34]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On November 7, 2025, the硅铁基差 in Ningxia was - 26, and the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc. remained stable or decreased slightly compared to previous periods. The仓单 quantity increased [46]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - The硅锰基差 in Inner Mongolia was 210 on November 7, and the spot prices in different regions also showed certain changes. The仓单 quantity increased significantly [48]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of纯碱01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1210, 1294, and 1363 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as沙河 and Qinghai also changed [56]. - The重碱 and轻碱 market prices in different regions had corresponding values on November 7, and the价差 between重碱 and轻碱 also varied by region [59]. - **Fundamentals**: - The glass cold - repair expectation may lead to a weakening of the rigid demand for soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to long - term, and the upper - and middle - stream inventories are high [55]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: - On November 7, 2025, the closing prices of玻璃01, 05, and 09 contracts were 1091, 1225, and 1315 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding月差 values. The基差 values in different regions such as Shahe and Hubei also changed [84]. - **Fundamentals**: - The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe may affect market supply and sentiment, but the impact is limited due to the approaching off - season and high middle - stream inventory. The 01 contract of glass may continue to be highly contested until near delivery [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views 粕类产业 - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost - side support is strong. The downward space is limited. The near - month shipment crushing margin is negative, and there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons from November to January. With the strengthening support of US soybeans, it is expected to be difficult to purchase cheap soybeans in the future, and the support for soybean meal will increase [1]. 油脂产业 - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected to rebound to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in the short - term, and then face resistance. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, and it is expected to rise to the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. CBOT soybean is near the technical pressure level. CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range shock in the short - term. Domestically, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the basis quotation fluctuates little [2]. 生猪产业 - The spot price has declined recently, the secondary fattening has increased again, the spot supply is normal, and the slaughter enterprises have little difficulty in purchasing. The pig price fluctuates mainly. The overall slaughter progress will slow down in November, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and be bullish on the single - side. The 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [4]. 玉米 industry - In the supply side, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and the price is stable due to farmers' reluctance to sell and state reserve support. In the North China, the purchase and sale are average, and the price is also stable. In the demand side, the enthusiasm for building inventories in the trading link is average, the deep - processing inventory is stable, and the feed inventory is replenished due to being at a low level, but it is still mainly for rigid demand, and the long - term orders are few. The corn supply rhythm is okay currently, the market is in a low - level shock in the short - term, but there is still selling pressure in November [7]. 白糖 industry - The expected increase in supply surplus, weakening energy prices, and good weather in major producing areas have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure, but there is significant cost support below 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the market maintains a low - level shock [12]. 棉花 industry - The new cotton cost supports the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure for the price to rise. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large, and textile enterprises have demand for purchasing cotton raw materials at low prices. The cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply pressure. The price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling, but with the slow recovery of demand, it may gradually rise. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.99%) from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.16%). The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan, up 35 yuan (81.40%) [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.47%). The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan, down 12 yuan (-92.31%) [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.56%). The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan, down 23 yuan (-11.33%) [1]. 油脂产业 - **Palm oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's first - grade palm oil is 8390 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.12%). The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.61%). The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan, down 40 yuan (-16.53%) [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The current price of Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil is 8540 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.12%). The futures price of P2601 is 8732 yuan, up 142 yuan (1.65%). The basis of P2601 is - 192 yuan, down 152 yuan (-380.00%) [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil is 9780 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.31%). The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan, up 157 yuan (1.67%). The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan, down 127 yuan (-37.03%) [2]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 12025 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-0.12%); the price of live pigs 2601 is 11940 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.04%); the 1 - 5 spread is - 82 yuan, up 10 yuan (10.53%) [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Sichuan is 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.94%); the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan, unchanged; the basis is - 4 yuan, down 20 yuan (-125.00%) [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.73%); the spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 41 yuan, down 18 yuan (-30.51%) [7]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.13%); the price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%); the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents (0.71%) [12]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.88%); the Nanning basis is 362 yuan, up 55 yuan (17.92%) [12]. 棉花 industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.07%); the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.59 cents (-0.91%) [13]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.06%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.03%) [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 10 yuan (0.31%); the price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.03%); the basis is - 295 yuan/500KG, up 37 yuan (11.19%) [15]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying chicken chick price is 2.80 yuan/feather, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled chicken price is 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan (-4.20%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 (1.28%) [15].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, it is expected to rise in the short - term following the import cost, with improving profit margins stimulating purchases. In the medium - term, the outlook of ample global soybean supply remains unchanged, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [3] - For palm oil, the high - yield in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the market. It may reverse the current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The strategy is to view it as range - bound with a downward bias until Malaysian palm oil exports improve, and turn bullish if there are signs of production decline [5] - For sugar, due to strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder, Zhengzhou sugar prices have rebounded, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then look for short - selling opportunities [9] - For cotton, the fundamental situation is weak with poor demand and high domestic production this year. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] - For eggs, the downward trend of egg prices has been broken. In the short - term, the market is expected to consolidate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading, and pay attention to the upper - level pressure in the medium - term [15][17] - For pigs, the overall strategy is to sell on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 Market Information - On Thursday, CBOT soybeans declined due to profit - taking and expectations of global bumper harvests. Brazilian soybean premiums slightly decreased. Domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with weak trading but good pick - up. The oil mill operating rate was 52.4%, up from the previous day. MYSTEEL estimated the domestic soybean crushing volume this week to be 2.0964 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons last week. As of October 30, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47%, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular rainfall [2] Strategy Views - Import costs are expected to move in a range. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, squeezing profit margins, but as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support [3] Palm Oil Market Information - ITS and AMSPEC data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% - 5.19% compared with the previous month. SPPOMA data indicated that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% in October and 6.8% in the first five days of November. Domestic oils rebounded on Thursday following the optimistic sentiment in the commodity market. Palm oil prices are constrained by high production in Malaysia and Indonesia [4] Strategy Views - High production in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current supply - surplus and inventory - building situation may reverse. The strategy is to be bearish until exports improve and turn bullish on signs of production decline [5] Sugar Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly. Brazilian and Indian sugar production forecasts were released, with Brazilian sugar production expected to be higher and Indian net sugar production expected to be 30.95 million tons after deducting ethanol production [8] Strategy Views - Strengthened import controls on syrup and premixed powder have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices, but the external market is weak. It is advisable to wait for the rebound to fade and then short - sell [9] Cotton Market Information - On Thursday, Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. Spinning mill operating rates remained flat week - on - week and were lower than in previous years. Xinjiang cotton purchase prices declined slightly [11] Strategy Views - Weak demand and high domestic production this year lead to a weak fundamental situation. The short - term cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate [12] Eggs Market Information - National egg prices were partly stable and partly rising. Supply was sufficient, and market demand was stable. Downstream traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased slightly [14] Strategy Views - Low replenishment and high culling have led to expectations of a peak - to - decline in inventory. With the improvement of sentiment, the market is expected to consolidate strongly in the short - term [15][17] Pigs Market Information - Domestic pig prices were mixed. Northern farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the slaughter volume decreased slightly. Southern prices may stop falling and stabilize [18] Strategy Views - Group farms have completed a high proportion of their plans, but the spot price increase was less than expected. The overall strategy is to sell on rallies, and cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions instead [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

Production Side - In October, the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires were 59.85% and 66.58%, respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous month[3] - The average operating rates for electric furnaces and rebar were 60.58% and 41.90%, both lower than the previous month[3] - The capacity utilization rates for coking, glass, cement clinker, and cold-rolled steel continued to improve, recorded at 79.99%, 78.61%, 59.46%, and 98.41% respectively[3] Demand Side - The average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 1.34% month-on-month but decreased by 24.49% year-on-year[4] - The average transaction area of land in 100 cities decreased by 20.55% month-on-month and 15.85% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 65,118 units, a decrease of 22.89% compared to the previous month[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 1.79% month-on-month, with slight increases in vegetable and fruit prices[6] - The average price of gasoline and diesel saw year-on-year declines of 2.28% and 4.29% respectively[6] - The price of rebar decreased by 1.24% month-on-month, while the price of copper and aluminum increased by 4.05% and 0.60% respectively[6] Risks - Risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations and overseas policies exceeding expectations[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - SH2601 rose 2.18% to close at 2343 yuan/ton. This week, the operating loads in Northeast and South China increased, while some plants in Central and North China had maintenance and production cuts. The national average capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The downstream alumina maintained a high operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing decreased slightly this week. With the signing of orders from major downstream and restocking by non-aluminum enterprises, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased this week, but the inventory pressure remained high. The strong thermal coal price drove up the cost, and due to the weak caustic soda price, the profit of chlor-alkali declined this week. Chlor-alkali enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating state in November. The restocking of downstream alumina is restricted by low profits, and some non-aluminum demands weaken seasonally, putting pressure on the caustic soda price. Affected by the market's pessimistic expectations, the current market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has a large premium over the 01 contract. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely. Technically, pay attention to the support around 2250 and the resistance around 2400 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the main contract position was 134,599 lots, down 3,793 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was -397 lots, up 13,942 lots; the main contract trading volume was 409,974 lots, down 41,379 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2343 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2512 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 157 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -49.5 yuan/ton, up 100.5 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased 0.5% to 84.8%. From October 25 to 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased 0.41% to 85.86%. From October 31 to November 6, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 0.04% to 89.60%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.26% to 68.06% [2]. 3.7 Other Information - As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants decreased 6.29% to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the chlor-alkali profit decreased to 464 yuan/ton [2].