Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - PVC supply - demand is weak, but there is cost support. The supply pressure is expected to intensify in October as new follow - up maintenance devices are few, previous shutdown devices restart, and new capacity may be put into production. Downstream demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market is affected by the Indian anti - dumping tax. Inventory is likely to remain at a high level, which is the main source of price pressure. However, due to the deep loss of the calcium carbide process and the contraction of chlor - alkali profits, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise, providing some support to the price. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 4719 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4769 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; trading volume was 708,041 lots, up 116,303 lots; open interest was 1,144,046 lots, up 70,687 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 128,365 lots, down 15,518 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4715 yuan/ton, down 26.15 yuan. In the South China region, ethylene - based PVC was 4995 yuan/ton, unchanged; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4776.88 yuan/ton, down 34.38 yuan. The CIF price in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China was 2751.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 513 US dollars/ton, unchanged; VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.97%, up 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.13%, up 2.8 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.75%, up 1.62 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 53.77 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in the East China region, it was 48.84 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.93 million tons, down 0.2 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.51%, up 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.17%, up 0.46 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 15.07%, up 0.33 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, up 2.01% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 1.43% to 47.76%, with the pipe operating rate up 1.3% to 40.43% and the profile operating rate down 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, PVC social inventory was 97.13 million tons, up 1.84% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process rose to 5312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol - The current market's core trading logic revolves around "high inventory + high imports." Port arrivals remain high, leading to significant inventory accumulation. Combined with a weakening trading atmosphere, prices are showing a downward trend. - Domestic supply is at a relatively high level year-on-year. Although there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance of some devices recently, there are expectations for some devices to resume production in early October. However, the inventory situation in the inland area is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. - On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, overall demand is weak. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are at a neutral level, MTO profits have strengthened, and traditional downstream profits have slightly improved, resulting in an overall neutral valuation. - The current futures market is in a state of contention: on one hand, there is the real - world pressure of high inventory and weak basis; on the other hand, there is the expected support of overseas gas restrictions in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the emergence of an inventory inflection point [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - During the holiday, crude oil and naphtha prices both declined. Fundamentally, there are expectations for the resumption of production of some maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity for pure benzene in the near future. Coupled with the expected increase in imports in the fourth quarter, domestic pure benzene supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. - In terms of demand, most downstream pure benzene products are currently operating at a loss, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There has been an increase in unplanned production cuts in some downstream industries, and there is significant uncertainty in demand growth, providing limited support. Overall, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene remains loose, and the price driving force is weak. - For styrene, during the holiday, crude oil, naphtha, and styrene spot prices all declined. There are expectations for the commissioning of new devices and the resumption of production of previously shut - down devices after the holiday, so supply is expected to increase. Although there are still some devices planning to shut down, it is difficult to fully offset the pressure from new and resumed production. - On the demand side, there is rigid demand support during the downstream seasonal peak season, but the profits of some downstream industries are under pressure, and finished - product inventory remains high, so demand - side support may be limited. The supply - demand outlook for styrene is also loose, with high port inventory and weak cost - side support. After the holiday, styrene prices are expected to remain under pressure [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the operating rate is gradually recovering. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. Future attention should be paid to the supply rhythm and import offers. - Before the holiday, the CP settlement price decreased, and PDH device profits were restored. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of PP devices. - On the demand side, there are no bright spots. After the holiday, there is significant inventory pressure. Coupled with the launch of new production capacity, there is a large pressure for inventory accumulation in the 01 contract, which limits the upside potential [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the spot market. Before the holiday, the futures market continued to weaken. After the National Day, as non - aluminum inventory is digested and decreases, there may be some purchasing willingness due to low prices. - The downstream inventory of the main alumina producers is high, and the willingness to replenish inventory is also low. The delivery volume of large Shandong manufacturers was high before the holiday, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in future purchase prices. Alumina production capacity is at a high level, and there is an over - supply problem. It is expected that production cuts may not occur until January. Therefore, there is still some support for short - term caustic soda demand. - From the perspective of the commissioning schedule, there will be a large number of alumina commissionings in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, there may be concentrated inventory replenishment in the fourth quarter of this year, which may tighten the spot liquidity. It is expected that there is limited downside space for caustic soda in the future, and attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm. - For PVC, most mid - and downstream enterprises were on holiday during the festival, and spot trading was light. Before the holiday, the PVC futures market weakened and fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve, and both futures and spot prices are weakening. - On the supply side, production remains at a high level, and the over - supply situation is prominent. On the demand side, there has been no obvious performance during the peak season, and the demand for profiles has continued to shrink, showing obvious characteristics of a non - peak season. - Overall, the willingness of upstream producers to hold inventory has decreased. However, exports have alleviated some of the over - supply pressure. The cost of raw material calcium carbide is on an upward trend, and ethylene prices are stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. After the holiday, attention should be paid to cost support. It is expected that there is limited downside space for PVC during the peak season, and attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, during the holiday, international oil prices fluctuated within a range. The main trading logic was that OPEC + announced only a slight increase in production in January, which was lower than market expectations, temporarily alleviating supply pressure. Currently, the domestic PX operating rate remains high. - On the demand side, due to continuously low PTA processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been delayed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is weak, and there is an expectation of PXN compression. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that PX will continue to fluctuate weakly after the holiday. - For PTA, due to continuously low processing fees, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and there are maintenance expectations for multiple PTA devices. Some devices have reduced or stopped production due to the impact of typhoons, so PTA supply is expected to contract. - Coupled with the pre - holiday downstream inventory replenishment demand, the PTA basis has been slightly repaired, but the expected upward space is limited. The overall trend during the National Day holiday was weak. It is expected that the driving force for PTA after the holiday will be limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. - For ethylene glycol, during the holiday, there were many foreign - owned vessel arrivals. It is expected that port inventory will increase significantly after the holiday. In addition, the restart of the Satellite Petrochemical device and the commissioning of the new Yulong Petrochemical device in October will keep domestic supply at a high level, and the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken. Therefore, it is expected that there will be upward pressure on ethylene glycol after the holiday. - For short - fiber, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Currently, short - fiber supply remains at a high level. On the demand side, the market replenished inventory before the holiday, and the inventory of directly - spun polyester short - fiber has been continuously decreasing. It is expected that short - fiber will be relatively more supported than raw materials in the short term, but the driving force is limited, and its rhythm will mainly follow the raw materials. - For bottle - grade polyester chips, there is no news of further production cuts in October. The fourth quarter is the traditional off - season for bottle - grade polyester chips. Considering the gradual cooling of the weather in October, the demand for soft drinks and catering will decline slightly, and the demand side provides insufficient support. Therefore, bottle - grade polyester chips are likely to enter a seasonal inventory - reduction channel, and PR will mainly follow the cost side, with upward pressure on processing fees [8]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2328 on September 30, down 31.00 or 1.31% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2362, down 26.00 or 1.09%. - The MA15 spread was - 34, down 5.00 or 17.24%; the Taicang basis was - 125, up 13.50 or - 9.78%. - The spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line remained unchanged at 2090 yuan/ton; the spot price of Luoyang, Henan remained unchanged at 2250 yuan/ton; the spot price of Taicang Port was 2238 yuan/ton, down 12.50 or - 0.56%. - The regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 148, down 12.50 or - 7.81%; the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was - 13, down 12.50 [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 31.994%, down 2.05 or - 6.03% from the previous value; methanol port inventory was 149.2 tons, down 6.56 or - 4.21%; methanol social inventory was 181.2%, down 8.61 or - 4.54% [1]. Operating Rate - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.27%, up 1.61 or 2.22%; the operating rate of a certain unspecified enterprise was 65.0%, down 3.85 or - 5.59%. - The production - sales rate of northwest enterprises was 127%, up 11.17 or 9.60%; the operating rate of downstream externally - purchased MTO devices was 82.46%, up 7.38 or 9.83%. - The operating rate of downstream formaldehyde was 32.7%, down 0.13 or - 0.40%; the operating rate of downstream acetic acid was 81.4%, down 0.97 or - 1.18%; the operating rate of downstream MTBE was 65.9%, up 2.12 or 3.32% [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Price and Spread - Brent crude oil (November) was $66.03 per barrel on September 30, down $1.94 or 2.9% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (October) was $63.45 per barrel, down $1.7 or 1.7%. - CFR Japan naphtha was $592 per ton, down $12 or 2.5%; CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $810 per ton, down $2 or 0.6%. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread was 123, up 7 or 6.3%; the ethylene - naphtha spread was 208, up 10 or 4.9%. - The pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the pure benzene East China spot price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 1.5% [3]. Styrene - Related Price and Spread - The styrene East China spot price was 6830 yuan/ton on September 30, down 80 or 1.2%; EB futures 2510 was 6734 yuan/ton, down 2.1%; EB futures 2511 was 6932 yuan/ton, down 97 or 1.4%. - The EB basis (10) was 96, up 200.0%; the EB10 - EB11 spread was - 101, down 87.0% [3]. Downstream Cash Flow - The phenol cash flow was - 353 yuan/ton on September 30, up 13.6%; the caprolactam cash flow (single product) was - 1920 yuan/ton, up 4.5%; the aniline cash flow was 630 yuan/ton, up 13.9%; the EPS cash flow was - 130 yuan/ton, up 18.8%; the PS cash flow was 220 yuan/ton, up 57.1%; the ABS cash flow was 140 yuan/ton, up 121.9% [3]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 10.60 tons on September 30, down 0.10 or - 0.9%; the styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.75 tons, up 1.10 or 5.9%. - The Asian pure benzene operating rate was 79.0%, unchanged; the domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.9% or 1.2%; the domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 64.0%, up 6.8%; the styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.2% [3]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - The L2601 closing price was 7153 on September 30, down 28 or 0.39%; the L2509 closing price was 7220, down 19 or 0.26%. - The PP2601 closing price was 6852, down 51 or 0.74%; the PP2509 closing price was 6880, down 34 or 0.49%. - The L2509 - 2601 spread was 67, up 9 or 15.52%; the PP2509 - 2601 spread was 28, up 17 or 154.55% [5]. Inventory and Operating Rate - The PE enterprise inventory was 38.3 tons on September 30, down 7.56 or - 16.50%; the PE social inventory was 52.5 tons, down 1.03 or - 1.93%. - The PP enterprise inventory was 52.0 tons, down 3.03 or - 5.50%; the PP trader inventory was 18.7 tons, down 0.11 or - 0.58%. - The PE device operating rate was 81.8%, up 1.48 or 1.85%; the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.1%, up 1.21 or 2.82%. - The PP device operating rate was 75.5%, up 0.63 or 0.8%; the PP powder operating rate was 35.5%, up 1.46 or 4.3%; the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.9%, up 0.40 or 0.8% [5]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Price - The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2500.0 yuan/ton on September 30, unchanged; the Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted - to - 100% price was 2600.0 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4700.0 yuan/ton, down 30.0 or - 0.6%; the East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 5000.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7]. Overseas Quotation and Export Profit - The FOB East China port price of caustic soda was $400.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the export profit was 164.7 yuan/ton, down 58.7 or - 26.3%. - The CFR Southeast Asia price of PVC was $650.0 per ton on September 25, unchanged; the CFR India price was $730.0 per ton, unchanged; the FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based PVC price was $605.0 per ton, up 5.0 or 0.8%; the export profit was 50.2 yuan/ton, up 72.6 or 323.8% [7]. Supply and Demand - The caustic soda industry operating rate was 86.8% on September 26, up 1.4 or 1.6%; the Shandong sample caustic soda operating rate was 85.6%, up 0.5 or 0.6%. - The PVC total operating rate was 76.1%, up 0.7 or 0.9%; the profit of externally - purchased calcium carbide - based PVC was - 896.0 yuan/ton, down 90.0 or - 11.2%; the northwest integrated profit was 43.3 yuan/ton, down 96.0 or - 68.9%. - The alumina industry operating rate was 83.7% on September 19, unchanged; the rubber staple fiber industry operating rate was 89.8%, up 0.3 or 0.3%; the printing and dyeing industry operating rate was 66.2%, up 0.4 or 0.6%. - The Longzhong sample pipe material operating rate was 40.4% on September 26, up 1.3 or 3.3%; the Longzhong sample profile operating rate was 38.9%, down 0.5 or - 1.3%; the Long

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ferroalloy price in the third quarter was mainly affected by the coking coal price showing a volatile trend after a rapid increase. In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy futures are expected to be volatile, with the price at the stage when the "anti - involution" was proposed at the beginning of July regarded as the policy bottom and the high price at the end of July as the resistance level. The downstream products like rebar are the core variables affecting the ferroalloy price, and coking coal affects its cost. Ferroalloy mainly follows their prices but with lower elasticity. Policy expectations will dominate the rhythm, the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations. If the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, the supply - demand pressure will rise and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations [1][4]. - The price range of the Si - Fe 2601 contract is predicted to be between 5300 - 6400, and that of the Si - Mn 2601 contract between 5500 - 6500. The supply - demand of ferroalloy is relatively loose but easily affected by the anti - involution policy. Buying when the price reaches the level at the beginning of July has a high cost - performance ratio and safety margin, i.e., around 5300 for the Si - Fe 2601 contract and around 5500 for the Si - Mn 2601 contract [1]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the third quarter, the ferroalloy price was mainly affected by the coking coal price. In July, driven by macro - sentiment and the "anti - involution" policy expectation, coking coal rose rapidly, leading the rise of the entire black sector, and ferroalloy followed the price increase of coking coal and rebar. In August, due to the exchange's policy of restricting positions and raising handling fees for coking coal futures and the increase in production stimulated by the profit recovery of ferroalloy in July while the downstream demand was less than expected, the increase of ferroalloy gradually declined with a larger decline than the finished products. In September, supported by the steel mills' restocking of coke, ferroalloy rebounded slightly due to cost support (the increase in the prices of semi - coke and manganese ore), but the downstream consumption remained weak, and ferroalloy showed a narrow - range volatile trend [2]. - In 2025, the price of Si - Fe futures had a strong negative correlation with its total position. In most cases, the increase in price was accompanied by a decrease in position, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of hedging funds. The price of Si - Mn futures had a strong positive correlation and a characteristic of periodic divergence with its total position, i.e., in most cases, the increase in position was accompanied by a price rebound, and vice versa, which may be related to the participation of speculative funds [2]. 3.2 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Expectation - In the third quarter, the main factors affecting the ferroalloy price were the anti - involution policy expectation and market sentiment. The anti - involution started in July, but it mainly affected the photovoltaic sector at first. After July 18, relevant policies gradually began to affect the black sector, especially coking coal, which had multiple daily limit up. Ferroalloy also rose rapidly under the drive of coking coal but with a smaller increase. On July 25, after the news that large manganese - based ferroalloy producers reached a consensus on a 30% reduction in ferromanganese and a 40% reduction in Si - Mn production was spread, ferroalloy hit the daily limit and reached the peak of this round of market [15]. - In the fourth quarter, the price fluctuation of ferroalloy futures will be dominated by policy expectations in terms of rhythm, and the fundamentals of coking coal and ferroalloy will determine the direction and space. Policies mainly affect the market by changing industry expectations, and market sentiment may amplify short - term fluctuations [15]. 3.2.2 Downstream Steel Mill Demand Rhythm Realization - In the first three quarters of this year, the hot metal production has been maintained at a high level, with only a short - term decline in late September due to the military parade and then returning to normal. The high - level hot metal production is mainly due to the strong export demand in the first half of the year. From January to August 2025, the net export of steel products was 73.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.29%, and the net export of billets was 8.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 975%. Another reason is the high profit of steel mills, which is supported by strong exports and the price reduction of coking coal and iron ore in the first half of the year. However, since the third quarter, the cost has rebounded, and the profit of steel mills has gradually declined, which poses a challenge to maintaining high - level hot metal production [16]. - In the fourth quarter, the "Golden September and Silver October" is the peak demand season in China, but the demand for the five major steel products has been weak, with the apparent consumption remaining at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years and the production also at a low level. Since August, the production of the five major steel products has been significantly higher than that of last year, but the apparent consumption has not increased synchronously and is still lower than that of last year, resulting in inventory accumulation instead of the seasonal inventory reduction in the peak season [16]. - In the fourth quarter, it is necessary to pay attention to the realization of the downstream steel mill demand rhythm. If the construction rush in the fourth quarter fails to meet expectations, the inventory accumulation of steel mills will suppress the price rebound space, and the off - season may come earlier. If the winter storage is postponed, the situation of "no peak season in the peak season and no off - season in the off - season" may occur, leading to a price rhythm contrary to expectations [17]. 3.2.3 Effectiveness of Cost Support - Since July, the raw material prices of the ferroalloy cost side have changed. The electricity price has been relatively stable, but the price of semi - coke has risen, increasing the production cost of Si - Fe by about 300 yuan/ton from the bottom and providing some support for the Si - Fe price. For Si - Mn, supported by the high operating rate of downstream factories, the manganese ore price has risen slightly, and the chemical coke price has also increased under the drive of coking coal, moving the cost center of Si - Mn upward and providing some support for the Si - Mn price [24]. - In the long run, the production area of Si - Mn is concentrating in the northern regions with low electricity prices, new production capacity is constantly being released, and affected by factors such as the decline of the real estate market, the effectiveness of the cost support for Si - Mn may gradually weaken. The cost support of Si - Mn is affected not only by its own over - capacity but also by manganese ore, and its price elasticity basically depends on event - driven factors. In the short term, the supply pattern of manganese ore is relatively loose, the manganese ore price maintains a low - level volatile trend, and the market pricing may be anchored to the Inner Mongolia production area with the lowest cost [25]. - In the short term, before the National Day, the cost support of ferroalloy is relatively strong due to the release of raw material restocking demand. But in the medium - to - long term, if the ferroalloy production remains at a medium - high level, when the downstream enters the off - season or the peak season fails to meet expectations, the supply - demand pressure will rise, and the effectiveness of cost support may be challenged [25]. 3.2.4 Short - Term Disturbance at the Manganese Ore Shipping End - From January to August 2025, the cumulative import of manganese ore was 20.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.59%, and the cumulative shipping volume was 25.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.91%. The main reason is that the Australian manganese ore has gradually resumed production this year after the shutdown last year, and the supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient with the price maintaining a low - level volatile trend. The spread between semi - coke and manganese ore has gradually widened, and the cost - performance ratio of going long on the spread between the two types of ferroalloys is relatively high [29]. - Although the supply of manganese ore is sufficient, it is necessary to pay attention to short - term disturbances. There are rumors that the shipping volume of Gabonese manganese ore will decrease in October, but it has not been confirmed. Currently, the inventory of manganese ore at ports is low, and the market is likely to hype if there are disturbances at the shipping end [29]. 3.3 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.3.1 Ferroalloy Valuation - Currently, the valuation of ferroalloy is relatively neutral and on the low side. In the short term, it is supported by the downstream restocking demand, but in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the inventory pressure after the demand declines. The profit of ferroalloy has been continuously declining. The production of Si - Fe remains at a high level, and there is not much motivation for Si - Fe enterprises to increase production. The production of Si - Mn enterprises has begun to decline as the southern production areas enter the dry season. If the downstream demand fails to meet expectations and the inventory pressure increases, it will put pressure on the ferroalloy price, and the enterprise inventory and warehouse receipt inventory are not low at present [45]. 3.3.2 Ferroalloy Supply - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative production of Si - Mn was 6.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, and the cumulative production of Si - Fe was 3.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in production due to the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, but the continuous decline of the alloy production profit does not support the further increase of ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of producers reducing production is increasing. With the arrival of the normal water season, the production in the southern Si - Mn production areas may also decline. Especially, the production profit of Si - Fe has declined significantly, and there is a greater motivation to reduce production, with the production expected to decline slightly. The production profit of Si - Mn is relatively stable, and the production is expected to remain stable or decline following the Si - Fe production but with a smaller decline. It is expected that the ferroalloy production in the fourth quarter will decline slightly compared with the third quarter [50]. 3.3.3 Ferroalloy Demand - Side Outlook - From January to August 2025, the cumulative crude steel production in China was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, the cumulative production of the five major steel products was 295.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%, and the cumulative production of rebar was 73.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, according to the seasonal law, there is an expectation of an increase in demand due to the peak season, but currently, the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are declining, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is accumulating, while in previous years, the inventory should have decreased in the peak season. The inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased seasonally, and the current warehouse receipt inventory of rebar is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which restricts the increase in demand for upstream ferroalloy [55]. - The hot metal production remains at a high - level volatile state, but the profitability of steel enterprises shows a downward trend, and it is difficult to maintain a high - level hot metal production for a long time, so the steel - making demand for ferroalloy may decline. In terms of non - steel - making demand, the decline of the Si - Fe export profit is expected to affect the Si - Fe export volume. In general, it is difficult for the ferroalloy demand to increase in the fourth quarter, and the demand is expected to remain weak [55]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloy Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of Si - Fe and Si - Mn from January 2024 to December 2025 are provided, including production, import, export, apparent consumption, inventory, and supply - demand difference, showing the changes in the supply - demand situation of ferroalloy over time [70].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, the number of newly scheduled maintenance PVC plants is small, and previously shut - down plants are gradually restarting, so the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. The 200,000 - ton plant of Qingdao Gulf is expected to be put into production in October, which may further increase the industry's supply pressure. - In the early part of October, some downstream enterprises will take holidays and stop production. After the holiday, there will be a phased replenishment demand from downstream enterprises, but the growth space of demand is restricted by the weak domestic real - estate market. Affected by India's anti - dumping tax, the export market may remain on the sidelines, and its role in alleviating the domestic supply - demand contradiction is limited. - The PVC inventory is expected to maintain a high - level accumulation trend, which is the main source of price pressure. Currently, the calcium carbide process is deeply in the red, and chlor - alkali enterprises use alkali profits to offset chlorine losses. As chlor - alkali profits shrink, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise in the future, providing some support for the price. The PVC futures price is continuously suppressed by the supply - demand contradiction, but considering the current low valuation and cost support, the further downward space of the price may be limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4,839 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan; the trading volume is 591,738 lots, a decrease of 62,851 lots; the open interest is 1,073,359 lots, a decrease of 1,002 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 837,249 lots, a decrease of 7,171 lots; the short position is 950,096 lots, an increase of 8,660 lots; the net long position is - 112,847 lots, a decrease of 15,831 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the spot market, the prices of ethylene - based PVC in East and South China remain unchanged, while the prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in East and South China decline slightly. The CIF prices of PVC in China and Southeast Asia and the FOB price in Northwest Europe remain unchanged. The basis of PVC is - 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan [3]. 3.3上游情况 - The mainstream average prices of calcium carbide in North and Northwest China decline, while that in Central China remains unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of VCM in the Far East increase, while those in Southeast Asia remain unchanged. The CFR mid - prices of EDC in the Far East and Southeast Asia remain unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 78.97%, an increase of 2.01 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 79.33%, an increase of 2.44 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 78.13%, an increase of 1.01 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 534,700 tons, an increase of 100 tons. The inventory in East China increases by 1,300 tons, while that in South China decreases by 1,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, an increase of 45.9501 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6.4310894 billion square meters, an increase of 43.7794 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6期权市场 - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 10.37%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.7%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options of PVC is 14.74%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points [3]. 3.7行业消息 - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreases by 1.43% to 47.76%, among which the operating rate of pipes increases by 1.3% to 40.43%, and the operating rate of profiles decreases by 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, the PVC social inventory is 971,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process increases to 5,312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreases by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreases to 5,602 yuan/ton, and the profit increases by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, with the end of eleven consecutive inventory declines and the start of inventory accumulation, along with a gradual weakening of cost support, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a bottom - level oscillation [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2511 opened at 121,560 yuan/ton and closed at 121,100 yuan/ton, a - 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 97,757 (- 65,749) lots, and the open interest was 83,149 (- 735) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation with a trading range of less than 1,000 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 40% compared to the previous day due to the approaching National Day holiday [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic market was calm with stable prices. Near the holiday, the market was in a wait - and - see mode with no transactions. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, with firm quotes and good loading efficiency. Downstream iron plants are still in the red, maintaining a cautious and price - pressing attitude towards nickel ore procurement, and there is no obvious pre - holiday stockpiling. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply remains in a loose pattern. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase I) is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium is likely to rise [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,200 yuan/ton, a 600 - yuan decrease from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the premium and discount of some brands decreased due to the monthly spread adjustment. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,300 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 325 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 25,057 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 231,312 (1,188) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,850 yuan/ton and closed at 12,760 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,271 (- 12,046) lots, and the open interest was 87,251 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed an oscillating decline. After opening, it once reached the daily high of 12,855 yuan/ton but was suppressed by long - liquidation and short - increasing, finally closing 90 yuan lower than the previous day. The decrease in trading volume and open interest reflects the strong pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of market participants and the obvious short - term capital withdrawal [3]. - **Spot**: Affected by the decline in the futures market and the loosening of nickel - based raw material prices, the confidence in the stainless - steel spot market is insufficient. Moreover, as most pre - holiday stockpiling is completed near the National Day holiday, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with light trading. Some traders are mainly busy with the delivery of previous orders. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,100 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the premium and discount of 304/2B are 330 - 630 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - The recommended strategy for stainless - steel is neutral, with no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5].

Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The futures prices of steel were slightly weak on Monday, with spot prices following the decline. Although the trading volume remained above 100,000 tons, speculative demand was lacking. As the long - holiday approached and restocking neared completion, the spot trading activity cooled further. Macro - level, US interest rate cuts are favorable for liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. At the industry level, the peak - season demand for steel was flat, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials was marginal, unable to form a strong upward drive. With the approaching holiday, restocking is almost over, and cost support has temporarily ended. High steel production raises concerns about the future market. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach on the single - side and reduce positions during the holiday [2][7]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The fundamentals of silicon iron and manganese silicon are concerning. Silicon iron has high supply, weak demand, and neutral inventory, while manganese silicon has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Short - term alloy plant profits are near the break - even point, and the motivation to maintain production is high. Before the holiday, they mainly follow the black - metal sector. The weak fundamentals will suppress price increases. Industry self - discipline is not optimistic, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely. With the arrival of the peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the terminal demand needs verification, and the risk of a decline in iron - water and electric - furnace starts is accumulating, which may directly impact the demand for these two alloys [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of coke price increases has been partially implemented, but the market trading sentiment has weakened due to the decline in the futures market. The coking - coal auction in the production areas has mostly fallen. The futures market of coking coal and coke has been weak, possibly due to concerns about weak terminal demand after the holiday. Although the fundamentals of steel are improving marginally before the holiday, the market is worried about the continuation of weak terminal demand after the holiday and the weakening of cost support. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and sell on rallies for hedging [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The peak - season demand for steel has been flat, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight de - stocking, mainly due to the reduction in steel production. The flat demand cannot drive a strong rebound. High iron - water production throughout the year may lead to an oversupply of steel in the second half of the year if production is not reduced after the holiday. The support from inventory rotation for ore prices will disappear after the holiday, and the expected increase in iron - ore supply from Simandou restricts the price ceiling. The fundamentals of the black - metal market are expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, but the downward pressure is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Closing Prices and Changes**: On September 29, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.31%); HC2605 at 3298 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan (-1.17%); J2605 at 1790 yuan/ton, down 72.5 yuan (-3.89%); JM2605 at 1239.5 yuan/ton, down 64.5 yuan (-4.95%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3097 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%); HC2601 at 3289 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan (-1.23%); J2601 at 1647 yuan/ton, down 71.5 yuan (-4.16%); JM2601 at 1154 yuan/ton, down 60.5 yuan (-4.98) [1]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: On September 29, RB2601 - 2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan; HC2601 - 2605 was - 9 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; J2601 - 2605 was 21.5 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan; JM2601 - 2605 was - 85.5 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan [1]. - **Spreads, Ratios, and Profits**: On September 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 192 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.95, up 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.43, up 0.01; the rebar's on - paper profit was - 77.85 yuan/ton, up 15.65 yuan; the coking on - paper profit was 112.18 yuan/ton, up 11.03 yuan [1]. Spot Market - **Steel Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Tangshan billet was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3370 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [1]. - **Other Spot Prices**: On September 29, the price of Qingdao Port's PB fines was 779 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; Qingdao Port's super - special powder was 695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking coal concentrate was 730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1285 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Tangshan's Mongolian No. 5 coking coal concentrate was 1422 yuan/ton, down [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29, the basis of HC was 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of RB was 123 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of J was - 74.37 yuan/ton, down 45.5 yuan; the basis of JM was 161 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Manganese silicon/silicon iron: Volatile [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. The cost center will move up due to the rebound of coking coal prices, while the supply pressure remains with the continuous release of new manganese silicon production capacity and high - level silicon iron supply. With lackluster demand, the prices of ferrous commodities may be more affected by the macro - environment and policy expectations, deviating from fundamentals. It is expected that ferroalloy prices will seek a balance between weak fundamentals and macro - sentiment, showing a range - bound trend with limited upside and downside space [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third - Quarter Review of the Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Markets - In the first quarter, manganese ore prices rose steadily due to factors such as decreasing port inventories and reduced Gabonese shipments, driving up manganese silicon prices. Then, as the cost - driving force weakened, manganese silicon prices declined until a rebound in the third quarter. Silicon iron prices were under pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand. Although it followed the upward trend of manganese silicon passively, it continued to decline. In the third quarter, both manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rebounded with the recovery of coking coal prices [11] 3.2 Manganese Silicon: Rising Costs and High - Level Supply 3.2.1 Cost Increase - Manganese ore prices reached a high in the first quarter, driven by factors like slow overseas shipments, low port inventories, and concentrated ownership of oxidized ore. After that, prices declined as supply increased. In the third quarter, the price increase was limited. In the fourth quarter, port inventories are expected to be replenished, but the decline in prices may be limited. Chemical coke prices fell in the first half of the year and rebounded in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, they are expected to fluctuate within a range, providing some support to alloy prices [22][40] 3.2.2 High - Level Supply - Manganese silicon manufacturers' operating rates declined this year due to shrinking profits, but increased slightly in the second quarter as costs eased. In the third quarter, the operating rate remained high. In the fourth quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, maintaining high - level supply [42] 3.3 Silicon Iron: Rising Operating Rates and Increasing Inventories 3.3.1 Supply Release Driven by Rising Futures Profits - Silicon iron production was high from January to April. In the second quarter, production decreased due to losses. In the third quarter, with the recovery of prices and profits, supply increased. In different regions, Inner Mongolia had a high and rising operating rate, Ningxia was stable, and Shaanxi had a relatively low operating rate. In the fourth quarter, the over - capacity situation remains, and the operating rate will be profit - driven, with high supply elasticity [50][51] 3.3.2 Pressured Steel Demand at Home and Abroad - In the fourth quarter, steel demand is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors and weak real - estate investment. Silicon iron exports have been under pressure this year and are expected to remain weak in the fourth quarter. The demand from the magnesium market has limited impact on silicon iron. The balance of the silicon iron market in the fourth quarter will depend on supply - side adjustments [68] 3.4 Summary of Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron in the Second Half of the Year - In the fourth quarter, the ferroalloy market will face a game between fundamentals and macro - factors. Cost centers will move up, while supply pressure remains. With lackluster demand, prices are expected to be range - bound, and the market's volatility will depend on the game between cost support, supply pressure, and macro - factors [70][71]

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]