Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term shock" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - In the futures market, the glass main contract opened high and went low, showing a short - term shock signal. The trading volume increased by 361,000 lots and the open interest increased by 43,145 lots compared with the previous day. The closing price was 1056 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 1.95% from the previous settlement price [1] - In the spot market, the situation varied by region. North China was stable, East China had average trading, Central China had some price increases in Hubei, and South China's market center shifted down [1] - The basis in North China was - 36 yuan/ton with a spot price of 1020 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the weekly total output of float glass was 1.057 million tons, flat month - on - month and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat month - on - month. One production line was restarted but had not yet produced glass [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% month - on - month and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, domestic float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month. The net exports were 72,400 tons, a 4.51% increase month - on - month. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, a 93.63% increase year - on - year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the capacity clearance of some enterprises, and there are still plans to cold - repair some production lines before the Spring Festival, so the supply side is expected to shrink further. However, real - estate demand has not improved, and downstream demand is expected to weaken further after February. The short - term price may fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently, the soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. Recently, a glass production line has resumed production, leading to a slight recovery in the rigid demand for soda ash. Affected by the overall market today, the price has declined, but there is support from anti - involution and rising energy costs. However, the continuously increasing high inventory pressure will limit the price rebound space. In the short term, the futures price may maintain a volatile trend with a limited range. In February, as downstream enterprises gradually shut down for the holiday, the pre - holiday demand may weaken further, and the price may undergo a weak adjustment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main soda ash contract opened and closed lower, showing weakness during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the upper Bollinger Band, and the support is near the middle Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 167,000 lots compared to yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 14,274 lots. The intraday high was 1230, the low was 1197, and the closing price was 1204, down 6 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: The spot market remained weakly stable. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, with supply remaining at a high level. Some enterprises had maintenance plans in early February. Downstream procurement sentiment was poor, and they mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 46 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the domestic soda ash production was 783,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,400 tons or 1.47%. Among them, the light soda ash production was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; the heavy soda ash production was 421,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8,200 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.19%, down 2.23% from last week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.99%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 16 enterprises with an annual production capacity of over one million tons was 88.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.56% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,544,200 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons or 0.21% compared to Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 828,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,200 tons; the heavy soda ash inventory was 716,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,400 tons. It increased by 23,000 tons or 1.52% compared to last Thursday. The inventory at the same time last year was 1,845,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 300,900 tons or 16.31% [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 760,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.94%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 97.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.92%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, and the procurement enthusiasm was poor. They mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per two tons) of the co - production method was - 26.5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.5 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 88.35 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7.95 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The soda ash capacity utilization rate remains high, and the overall output is increasing with new capacity. The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered due to the resumption of a glass production line. Affected by the overall market, the price has dropped today, but there is support. The high inventory pressure limits the price rebound. In the short term, the price may fluctuate, and in February, it may weaken as downstream demand declines [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai copper continued to decline. As of today's close, Shanghai copper dropped by over RMB 10,000/ton from its high. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened significantly, and the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have declined notably. The willingness of previous long - position holders to close their positions has increased significantly. The spread between February and March contracts has weakened as copper prices fell, reflecting that the industry is not short of spot and near - month electrolytic copper. Technically, the futures price has fallen back to the trading range since January, and the pressure at the upper edge of the range can be continuously monitored [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum once rose to the RMB 26,000 mark and has since fallen back to around RMB 24,600 as of today's close. The short - term macro atmosphere has weakened, non - ferrous metals have generally declined, and the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions is relatively strong. The spread between February and March contracts has rebounded significantly. As aluminum prices fall, the industry's willingness to replenish inventories may increase [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the trading volume continued to decline. The main contract price of Shanghai nickel once rose to the RMB 150,000 mark and closed at the RMB 140,000 mark today. At the macro level, the short - term market has weakened, and the non - ferrous sector has generally declined. Nickel prices have followed the downward trend. At the industrial level, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength remains unchanged, and short - term driving forces are weak. Technically, the support level at the RMB 140,000 mark should be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: This week, the raw material and finished product inventories of domestic refined copper rods have generally run smoothly. Raw material procurement and stocking have been advancing in an orderly manner, with a slight accumulation of inventory. The finished product inventory has increased due to the slowdown in downstream pick - up rhythm and the pre - holiday stocking operations of enterprises. On January 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper by Mysteel was 335,800 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from January 26 [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: On January 30, China Aluminum (02600.HK) announced that on the same day, the company, Rio Tinto, and Valoriza Alumínio jointly entered into a share purchase agreement. According to the agreement, the company and Rio Tinto will acquire 446,606,615 common shares of Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) held by Valoriza Alumínio through a joint - venture company in cash. These shares account for 68.596% of the total issued shares of CBA, and the acquisition price is approximately 4.689 billion Brazilian reals, equivalent to approximately RMB 6.286 billion [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and the relationship between the spread of Shanghai copper contracts and the main contract price [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum spread between contracts, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report provides charts including nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are relatively strong, but the social inventory has not shown an accumulating trend despite entering the consumption off - season. The overall spot premium is stable, but it is declining in Tianjin. The domestic ore supply is weak, but the winter stockpiling of domestic smelters is basically completed with the supplement of imported ore. The imported ore continues to decline, and it's difficult for the imported ore TC to rise before the new Benchmark signing. Comprehensive smelting still faces losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is not obvious. Consumption is still optimistic in the long - term, with low inventory pressure, but short - term sentiment has a great impact. Be vigilant against the overall correction driven by the non - ferrous sector [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.06/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 25,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 25,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,450 yuan/ton and closed at 25,950 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest was 114,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 26,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 25,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 117,200 tons, up 400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,750 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. - On the domestic supply side, the extrusion of the syngas production load is not obvious, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still large under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. Overseas, with the maintenance of Saudi and Taiwanese plants, the import pressure will ease around the end of February, but it will still be large from January to February, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance plans in mid - January have been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand has weakened [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3,957 yuan/ton (a change of -13 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.33%), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,837 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of -0.16%), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -116 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 2 yuan/ton) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production gross profit of ethylene - made EG was -$41/ton (a month - on - month increase of $2/ton), and the production gross profit of coal - based syngas - made EG was -710 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 13 yuan/ton) [1]. International Price Difference No specific data presented in the content. Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - In mid - January, the Spring Festival maintenance plans were gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load accelerated their decline, and the support of rigid demand weakened [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 858,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 63,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The total planned arrival at the main ports in East China this week is 147,000 tons, and the arrival at the secondary ports is 28,000 tons, which is slightly high overall, and it is expected that the main ports will continue to accumulate inventory [2]. Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish near the support level of 3,900 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the capital dynamics and the relative changes in the valuations of various ethylene downstream products after the price increase [3]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread of EG2603 - EG2605 [3]. - Inter - variety: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global supply of natural rubber is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, which may gradually reduce supply pressure. However, there is still concentrated arrivals in China in late January, so the domestic supply is under short - term pressure. With the reduction of global supply pressure and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support for rubber. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires due to a slight improvement in orders. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, which limits the extent of domestic inventory accumulation. The relatively low price of domestic NR compared to Singapore's 20 - grade rubber indicates low valuation, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term [10]. - For BR, the strong price of butadiene has further enlarged the production loss of cis - butadiene rubber. Some private plants in North China may reduce production or switch production, which will ease short - term supply pressure. Although Maoming Petrochemical has restarted, the supply is still expected to be abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, but high prices may suppress stocking willingness, and overall demand remains stable. The support for upstream butadiene mainly comes from export benefits and overseas butadiene plant overhauls. With the continuous decline of domestic butadiene port inventory, the butadiene price is expected to remain strong, and the cis - butadiene rubber price will follow a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of downstream demand caused by high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,690 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,455 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Information - **Natural Rubber Imports**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2]. - **Rubber Tire Exports**: In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2]. ANRPC Report and Industry Trends - ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated this week. The production of semi - steel tires increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, and most enterprises remained stable. The shipment of all - steel tires was under pressure, and some enterprises controlled production, resulting in a slight decrease in utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be slightly weak and stable this week. During the pre - holiday stocking period, the production arrangement of enterprises has not been significantly adjusted, and inventory is stocked to ensure post - holiday supply. Some all - steel tire enterprises may moderately reduce production due to slow shipment and high finished product inventory [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the RU basis was - 240 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+80), the NR basis was 499.00 yuan/ton (+122.00); the price of whole latex was 16,450 yuan/ton (+350), the price of mixed rubber was 15,450 yuan/ton (+250), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (+300). The STR20 was quoted at 2,000 US dollars/ton (+55), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,450 yuan/ton (+250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.11 Thai baht/kg (+0.34), the price of Thai glue was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (-0.20) [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.47% (-0.06%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.32% (+0.48%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,504 tons (-393), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,271,830 tons (-2,137), the RU futures inventory was 109,870 tons (+1,480), and the NR futures inventory was 55,339 tons (-1,411) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the BR basis was - 590 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 10,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 579 yuan/ton (+16) [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.38% (+0.26%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,780 tons (+430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (-1,400) [9].

Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4% at 2,831 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.09% at 3,307 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with an increasing risk of the US striking Iran. Coupled with the overall enthusiastic sentiment in commodities, oil prices rose again yesterday, driving up the prices of FU and LU. Among them, FU is more elastic to the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has improved marginally recently, with spot discounts, calendar spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well [2] - After the US gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the arrival volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China is expected to increase in January and February [2] - As the geopolitical situation in Iran heats up, the regional fuel oil supply faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which constitutes the main upward risk in the current market. However, if the situation in Iran eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue strengthening [2] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market contradictions of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited, mainly following the passive rise of the crude oil end. Recently, the crack spread has been oscillating strongly, but there is no clear trend [2] - With the dynamic changes in the Dangote and Azur refinery units, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east-west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes may increase in February, and the local market pressure may increase [2] - Looking forward, the contradictions of surplus production capacity and the replacement of the demand share in the marine fuel sector still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low-sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation. Recently, the spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to gasoline and diesel has rebounded, partially reflecting the diversion of raw materials by RFCC units, resulting in a marginal convergence of the premium [2] Group 3: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Spread Trading - No specific strategy [3] Calendar Spread - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low levels [3] Futures-Spot Arbitrage - No specific strategy [3] Options - No specific strategy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is high, and coal prices are rebounding from a low level. The glass and soda ash markets are boosted by market sentiment, with glass and soda ash futures showing a volatile rebound. The double - silicon market is also driven by market sentiment, with the silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures showing an upward trend [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass 2605 main contract rebounded yesterday, with increased trading volume and open interest. Spot prices fluctuated with the futures prices, and some manufacturers raised their quotes [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash 2605 main contract rebounded in a volatile manner. Spot market quotes fluctuated with the futures, and transaction prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: The short - term supply shortage in the glass market continues. The continuous cold - repair of production lines and significant inventory reduction support the price. The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand from downstream also provides some support. Attention should be paid to the progress of production line cold - repair and the enterprise restocking rhythm [1] - Soda Ash: The weak reality of oversupply in the soda ash market has not improved significantly. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected, it is still at a high level. The float glass has entered the off - season, and the market is mainly for Spring Festival rigid - demand stocking. Attention should be paid to the enterprise restocking rhythm during the long holiday. In addition, driven by the warming market sentiment, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased [1] - **Strategy** - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron) - **Market Analysis** - Silicon - Manganese: The silicon - manganese main contract rose 1.61% yesterday under the influence of the black - series futures, with a daily reduction of 12,587 contracts in open interest. The silicon - manganese spot market was strong, and factories adjusted production normally. The price of 6517 silicon - manganese in the northern market was 5,570 - 5,670 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures were strong under the influence of the overall black - series. The price was driven up by the boost of macro - sentiment and the potential cost support. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon - iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon - iron was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Silicon - Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon - manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities. The supply - demand remains loose. There is an expectation of increased pig iron production in the future, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from steel mills is expected to improve the demand for silicon - manganese. The South African tariff policy may increase the cost of manganese ore, and attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [3] - Silicon - Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon - iron are controllable. Enterprises actively reduce production loads. Considering the复产 of steel mills and winter - storage restocking, the demand for silicon - iron is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi has boosted market sentiment. Considering the expected decline in domestic electricity prices next year and the overall over - capacity of silicon - iron, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon - iron and the electricity price policy in the production areas [3] - **Strategy** - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]