新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 市场交投相对清淡 铅价预计维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-30，LME铅现货升水为-43.70美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100元/ 吨至17300元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17300元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17325元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-125元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0 元/吨至9950元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10050元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-30，沪铅主力合约开于17465元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化15元/吨，全天交易日 成交69782手，较前一交易日变化-14987手，全天交易日持仓53891手，手较前一交易日变化-584手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17635元/吨，最低点达到17 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Weak and volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Volatile [2] - Silicomanganese: Volatile [4] - Ferrosilicon: Volatile [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are fluctuating. The trading sentiment of glass and soda ash has been boosted, leading to a rebound in their futures markets. The alloy futures of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have also rebounded, while the spot prices have made minor adjustments [1][3] - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant, with high inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation of soda ash has eased, but there are concerns about new production projects and glass cold - repair. The fundamentals of silicomanganese are poor with high inventory, and the fundamentals of ferrosilicon have improved compared to before [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures fluctuated upwards with active trading, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. Soda ash futures also rose, with an increase in spot prices but poor futures - spot trading and mainly rigid - demand purchases [1] - **Supply - demand and Logic**: For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is large. Although some production lines are being cold - repaired, the reduction in production is insufficient compared to the decline in demand, and there is a risk of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has eased, with reduced production and inventory. However, new production projects and potential glass cold - repairs need to be monitored [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to be weak and volatile, while soda ash is expected to be volatile [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Silicomanganese futures rebounded, and the spot market was strong. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton. Ferrosilicon futures continued to rebound, and the spot prices were slightly adjusted. The 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese are poor, with production exceeding demand and a large increase in inventory. Although steel mill复产 after New Year's Day will help repair the rigid demand, the high inventory pressure limits price increases. The low port inventory of manganese ore provides price support. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have improved, with enterprises reducing production and factory inventory declining. After steel mill复产, the rigid demand is expected to improve, and the price will be volatile [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to be volatile [4]

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：一方面，供应压力持续显现，截至第 52 周末，国内油厂豆粕库存已增至 117.6 万吨，环比增 加 7.72%，处于历史同期高位。另一方面，成本端存在支撑，且国内油厂压榨利润不佳，挺价意愿较强。需 求端则表现平淡，尽管生猪存栏高位，但饲料配方中豆粕添加比例下降，且节前备货需求温和，企业多按 需采购，难以拉动价格。综合来看，豆粕市场短期受高库存和弱需求压制，上行乏力，但下方有进口成本 及油厂挺价支撑，下跌空间有限，短期豆类期价维持区间震荡走势。 专业研究·创造价值 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on December 30, 2025 - **Stock Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index almost closed flat with a "ten - day consecutive gain", closing at 3965.12 points. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49% to 13604.07 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.63% to 3242.90 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **CSI 300 Index**: It fluctuated and consolidated on December 30, closing at 4651.28, a环比 increase of 11.91 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: The coke weighted index had a narrow - range shock, with a closing price of 1710.2, a环比 increase of 9.7; the coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1113.9 yuan, a环比 increase of 14.2 [2][3]. 2. Commodity Market Analysis Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: Port coke spot market prices declined. Some steel mills in Xingtai, Tianjin, Tangshan, and Shijiazhuang regions initiated the fourth round of price cuts of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 1, 2026. Coke production was relatively stable, and steel mills still purchased on - demand [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of main coking raw coal in Linfen, Shanxi increased by 25 yuan to 610 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port decreased by 15 yuan to 955 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 3 clean coal increased by 5 yuan to 1050 yuan/ton. Some coal mines began to control production near the year - end, and the market was in a weak and volatile state [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar had a narrow - range shock and a small gain on Monday. Affected by the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar futures had an oscillatory trend and a small increase on Tuesday. The 2026 January domestic sugar sales quota in India decreased by 500,000 tons compared to 2025, and Indonesia planned to import about 3.1 million tons of sugar in 2026 [4]. Rubber - Affected by the holiday effect, Shanghai rubber futures had an oscillatory trend and a small decline on Tuesday, and a narrow - range shock and a small decline at night [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures slightly declined on December 30. Brazil's good rainfall was conducive to soybean growth, and multiple institutions raised or maintained their production forecasts. Domestically, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2778 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.14% increase. The domestic soybean meal supply was abundant, and the inventory increased by 7.72% week - on - week [5]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig contract LH2603 closed at 11790 yuan/ton on December 30, with a 0.64% increase. In the short term, the supply pressure was weakened, and the demand was strong, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure was still not fundamentally alleviated [5]. Palm Oil - On December 30, palm oil rebounded in the range. The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures prices rose, and the market sentiment was boosted by the strong performance of Chicago Board of Trade soybean oil and the increasing demand [5]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper (main contract 2602) had a high - level correction, with a 2.36% decline in price. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The inventory increased, and the decline was mainly due to profit - taking and cautious downstream purchases [5]. Cotton - The main Zhengzhou cotton contract closed at 14570 yuan/ton at night on Tuesday. Cotton - spinning enterprises purchased on - demand, and the inventory increased by 127 lots [5]. Logs - The main log contract 2603 opened at 778, with a closing price of 776 and an increase of 21 lots in open interest. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged, and the supply - demand relationship was relatively stable [6]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract 2605 oscillated and declined on December 30, with a 0.44% decline. The global iron ore shipment increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the iron ore price was in an oscillatory state in the short term [6]. Asphalt - The main asphalt contract 2602 oscillated and rose on December 30, with a 1.47% increase. The capacity utilization rate increased, the inventory accumulated, the shipment volume increased, and the price oscillated in the short term [6]. Steel - On December 30, rb2605 was reported at 3134 yuan/ton, and hc2605 was reported at 3282 yuan/ton. The macro - policy was expected to be "double - loose", which boosted the market sentiment. However, the steel market supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the price might oscillate in a narrow range in the short term [6]. Alumina - On December 30, ao2605 was reported at 2751 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina ore supply was stable, the import supply was expected to increase, the demand was limited, and the market was in a surplus state [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On December 30, al2602 was reported at 22565 yuan/ton. The macro - sentiment release ended, and the aluminum market declined. The supply was normal, the social inventory accumulated, and the demand pressure increased [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].

| と期現日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月31日 王涛辉 | | 田和 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8410 8390 20 0.24% | | 期价 Y2605 7878 7818 ୧୦ 0.77% | | 基差 Y2605 532 572 -40 -6.99% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 + 520 0 - | | 仓单 28264 28264 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌幅 涨跌 | | 8590 100 现价 广东24度 8490 1.18% | | 期价 P2605 8658 8512 146 1.72% | | 星差 P2605 -68 -22 -46 -209.09% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 + 120 05 + 120 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 9099.8 9051.2 48.6 0.54% | | 盘面进口利润 广州港5月 -442 -539 97 18.07% ...

广发期货有限公司提醒广大投资者：期市有风险 入市需谨慎！ ax 2017-0 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 | 集运产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月31日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 集运指数 | | | | | | | 结算价指数 | 12月29日 | 12月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | SCFIS (欧洲航线) | 1742.64 | 1589.20 | 153.4 | 9.66% | 点 | | SCFIS (美西航线) | 1301.41 | 952.10 | 349.3 | 36.69% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 12月26日 | 12月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SCFI综合指数 | 1552.92 | 1506.46 | 46.5 | 3.08% | 点 | | SCFI (欧洲) | 1690 | 1533 | 157.0 | ...

Group 1: Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3134 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 4 CNY/ton, representing a 0.13% rise, and an increase in open interest by 30,000 contracts [3][11] - The spot prices remained stable, with Tangshan's ordinary billet price at 2950 CNY/ton and Hangzhou's Zhongtian rebar price at 3240 CNY/ton, while the national construction material transaction volume was 93,200 tons [3][11] - Steel mills' supply has decreased, which may alleviate market pressure, but the market sentiment remains cautious with no strong driving factors [3][11] Group 2: Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 789 CNY/ton, down by 7.5 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.9%, with a trading volume of 300,000 contracts and a reduction in open interest by 16,000 contracts [4][12] - Supply from Australia and Brazil has increased, while shipments from other countries have slightly decreased, leading to high global shipping volumes [4][12] - Steel mills are undergoing annual inspections, and port inventories continue to rise, indicating stable fundamentals with a focus on replenishment demand in the short term [4][12] Group 3: Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1119.5 CNY/ton, increasing by 31.5 CNY/ton, a rise of 2.9%, with a decrease in open interest by 8,015 contracts [5][13] - In the spot market, the main coking coal price in Shanxi's Lüliang region was adjusted down by 80 CNY to 1403 CNY/ton, while other coal prices showed mixed trends [5][13] - The market sentiment is weak due to increased safety inspections and cautious demand from downstream coke enterprises, leading to expectations of wide fluctuations in the coking coal market [5][13] Group 4: Coke - The coke futures contract closed at 1715 CNY/ton, with an increase of 34.5 CNY/ton, representing a 2.05% rise, and an increase in open interest by 198 contracts [6][14] - The spot market for coke prices remained stable, with the price of first-grade metallurgical coke at 1450 CNY/ton [6][14] - The fourth round of price reductions in the coke market has begun, with some enterprises accelerating sales to reduce inventory, while demand from steel mills remains stable [6][14] Group 5: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures price closed at 5942 CNY/ton, with a 1.09% increase and an increase in open interest by 14,109 contracts to 278,300 contracts [7][16] - The market price for manganese silicon ranged from 5570 to 5780 CNY/ton, with increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia regions [7][16] - The weekly production of manganese silicon has increased, supported by new capacity and production shifts, while inventory levels have reached new highs [7][16] Group 6: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures price closed at 5750 CNY/ton, with a 1.16% increase and a decrease in open interest by 544 contracts to 230,600 contracts [8][17] - The price range for silicon iron across regions was approximately 5270 to 5320 CNY/ton, with price increases in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia [8][17] - Recent production adjustments have led to a slight decrease in silicon iron output, while downstream steel mills are engaging in replenishment activities ahead of the holiday [8][17]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/31 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 【 20251227 】 Lithium Carbonate, Aluminium Oxide, Copper 碳酸锂、氧化铝、铜 【 20251226 】 Platinum, Silver, Palladium 铂、白银、钯 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalserv ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic silver futures main contract increased by 5%, reaching 18,717 yuan per kilogram on December 30 [1] Group 1 - The rise in silver futures indicates a positive market sentiment towards precious metals [1] - The increase of 5% reflects a significant movement in the commodity market, potentially attracting investor interest [1]