2025年7月10日，国家数据局局长刘烈宏在北京会见来访的国际数据空间协会主席莱茵霍尔德·阿赫思一 行。双方就数据空间建设、数据跨境流动等进行了交流。 ...

二、"1-1314"架构：以数据质量为核心的全生命周期治理 1-1314数据治理架构 "1-1314"数据治理架构是IDGA专家团队基于DAMA数据管理知识体系及DCMM国家标准，结合工业企 业的实际需求提出的创新性治理框架。其核心价值在于： 1.根治数据质量顽疾，实现95%以上的问题解决率 一、背景 在数字经济高速发展的今天，数据已成为工业企业创新与竞争的核心要素。随着工业4.0、智能制造、 工业互联网等技术的快速推进，企业对数据的依赖程度不断加深，期望通过高效的数据治理将海量数据 （603138）转化为可用的数据资产，以支撑智能决策、优化运营并驱动业务创新。 然而，当前工业企业在数据治理过程中仍面临诸多严峻挑战： 数据质量低下：数据来源复杂、格式多样，导致数据准确性、完整性和一致性难以保障；数据孤岛严 重：企业内部各部门数据标准不统一，数据难以共享和流通，影响协同效率；安全与合规风险加剧：数 据泄露事件频发，国内外数据安全法规监管趋严，企业需确保数据存储与使用的合法合规；治理效果难 以持续：许多企业反复投入数据治理，但因缺乏系统性方法，治理成果难以长期维持。 针对这些问题，国际数据治理协会(IDGA)联合 ...

"强制配储"落幕后，储能并未按下"暂停键"。在各地新的政策中出现很多鼓励、支持措施，储能新机遇 正在显现。 华夏能源网（公众号hxny3060）获悉，7月9日，云南省三部门联合发布《云南省推动绿电直连建设实施 方案》（以下简称"《云南绿电直连方案》"）。方案提出，绿电直连并网型项目应通过合理配置储能、 挖掘负荷灵活性调节潜力等方式确保与公共电网的交换功率不超过申报容量；根据项目情况，配置合理 比例的储能系统等。 不仅在地方上，国家部委层面的储能支持政策也密集出台。例如，7月1日发改委等三部门发布的《关于 开展零碳园区建设的通知》（以下简称"《零碳园区建设通知》"）和7日工信部等6部门发布的《关于组 织开展2025年度国家绿色数据中心推荐工作的通知》（以下简称"《绿色数据中心工作通知》"），均涉 及鼓励配储的内容。 今年2月出台的"136"号文明确叫停强制配储后，储能行业前景一度被严重看淡。然而，从目前的政策来 看，储能并未被"一棒子打死"，反而多个政策都在鼓励"按需"、"合理"配储。在新政策的积极引导之 下，储能发展的新空间正在打开。 从"强配"到按需、合理配储 2017年，青海省发改委印发《2017年度风电 ...

若金价反弹至3358附近，可轻仓尝试做空，止损设置在3365上方，目标看向3340昨日低点位置。若3340破位，可进一步下看3330 - 3335区域。 多单策略：等待金价回落至3330 - 3335区间，若能在此区域获得明显支撑并企稳，可轻仓做多，止损设置在3325下方，目标先看3345 - 3350； 然后关注还有没有做空的机会。 黄金走势分析：伦敦金在触及高位后遇阻回落，市场围绕 "涨势能否延续" 产生明显分歧。从驱动因素看，支撑上涨的逻辑包括：美联储鸽派 预期尚未完全消退，贸易政策谈判的不确定性可能引发避险资金流入，以及部分多头对通胀数据的 "利空出尽" 押注。但压制因素同样突出： 3375 附近关键阻力多次承压，昨日美盘初跌破欧盘低点释放回调信号，且美元指数在经济数据公布前的企稳可能进一步制约黄金上行空间。 趋势上，在未有效突破 3375-3380 阻力区间前，高位遇阻后的回调风险大于续涨概率。 周一高开回补缺口后，欧盘拉涨至高位盘整，但未破前高3375，美盘初跌破欧盘低点至3347，验证了 "阻力下做空" 的有效性。随后反弹至 3358附近，恰好是前期计划的二次入场位，形成 "回调 - 反弹 - ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*动态点评 2025 年 07 月 15 日 宏观经济研究 金融数据超预期修复——6 月金融数据点评 数据： 6 月新增社会融资规模为 4.2 万亿元，同比多增 0.9 万亿元。6 月社 会融资规模存量同比 8.9%，前值 8.7%。6 月新增人民币贷款 2.2 万亿元， 同比增加 1100 亿元。M1 同比 4.6%，前值 2.3%；M2 同比 8.3%，前值 7.9%。 要点： 6 月份 M1、M2 增速均明显加快，居民企业资金活跃度季节性提高，但居民 高储蓄特征未变，结构上仍依赖政策驱动。 存款端看，M1 同比快速攀升，M2 同比增速回暖，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。6月 份 M1 在低基数效应下由上月的 2.3%上涨至 4.6%，流动性增速明显加快， 经济活跃度提升，我们理解，随着财政资金逐步落实，推动大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新效果显现，同时 5 月央行调低政策利率，居民企业提款意 愿增加。M2 同比由上月的 7.9%升至 8.3%，财政支出加快推高 M2 增速， M2-M1 剪刀差为 3.7%，较上月的 5.6%缩小 1.9 个百分点，M1 增速高于 M2 增速，市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of China's economy in the first half of the year, with key indicators showing better-than-expected growth, which provides support for the market [1][2][3]. Economic Data Summary - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The industrial added value in June grew by 6.8%, exceeding expectations of 5.5% [2][3]. - The service sector's added value increased by 5.5% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.0%, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [3]. - In terms of trade, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year was 217.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% [5][6]. Industrial Performance - The significant increase in industrial added value suggests improved production efficiency and higher sales revenue, which typically correlates with increased profits for companies [2][3]. Export Dynamics - Despite potential challenges in the second half of the year, long-term support for exports remains strong due to factors such as the competitive edge of Chinese products and a diversified trade structure [6][5]. Financial Data Insights - June financial data showed a substantial recovery, with M1 growth rising by 2.3 percentage points to 4.6%, marking a five-year high for the same period. Social financing also exceeded expectations, indicating robust credit demand [8][9]. - The increase in M1 is attributed to government projects, reduced debt repayment impacts, and high foreign trade settlement volumes [8][9]. Market Implications - The positive financial indicators, including the expansion of credit and social financing, are expected to support market risk appetite and potentially lead to favorable stock market performance [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products on July 15, 2025 [2]. - Different commodities show diverse trends such as gold and silver are expected to rise, while copper is under pressure due to increased inventory [2][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday's closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 781.40, up 1.01%. ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 [2][7][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise with a trend strength of 1. Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 9207, up 1.87%. SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 208 [2][7][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Inventory increase is pressuring prices with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 78,400, down 0.04%. LME copper inventory rose to 109,625 tons [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Expected to run under pressure with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22,250, down 0.58%. LME zinc inventory increased to 113,400 tons [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Focus on the consumption during the peak season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17,085, up 0.06%. LME lead inventory rose to 260,950 tons [2][17]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening with a trend strength of -1. Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 266,720, up 1.05%. LME tin inventory increased to 2,095 tons [2][19][21]. - **Aluminum**: Under pressure in the off - season with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415, down 280. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 48.30 million tons [2][23][25]. - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory with a trend strength of 0. Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 121,100, down 290 [2][26][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillates due to the game between reality and macro factors with a trend strength of 0. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,715, up 5 [2][26][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Policy disturbances on the supply side, and follow - up actual progress should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. The 2509 contract closed at 66,480, up 2,200 [2][32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market news has spurred the price to rise on the disk with a trend strength of 1. Si2509 closed at 8,695, up 280 [2][35][37]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances, and spot trading should be monitored with a trend strength of 1. PS2508 closed at 41,765, up 435 [2][35][37]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations and expected to oscillate strongly with a trend strength of 0. The futures price closed at 766.5, up 2.5 [2][38]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The sector sentiment remains strong, and prices will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. RB2510 closed at 3,138, up 5; HC2510 closed at 3,276, up 3 [2][40][43]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The steel tender pricing has been settled, and the market is slightly boosted with a trend strength of 0. Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 closed at 5484, up 24; Manganese Silicon 2509 closed at 5782, up 36 [2][45][47]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to oscillate strongly, and coking coal is affected by news and also expected to oscillate strongly. Coke's trend strength is 0, and coking coal's is 1. Coke J2509 closed at 1525, up 5.5; Coking Coal JM2509 closed at 920, up 7 [2][48][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is expected to stabilize with a trend strength of 0. The previous closing price of ZC2507 was 840.0000, down 51.4 [2][53][56]. - **Log**: The main contract is switching, and the price will oscillate widely with a trend strength of 0. The 2509 contract closed at 788, up 0.3% [2][57][59]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: In a unilateral oscillating market [2][60]. - **PTA**: Monitor the production cut situation of filament factories [2][60]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, in a unilateral oscillating market, and positive spreads can be bought at low prices [2][60].

Report Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for each industry are provided in the report Core Views - The data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, and it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] - Under the "anti - involution" situation, the supply of finished steel may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to the entry of long - position funds, and the price increase of coke by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] - Trump's latest tariff measures have escalated the trade war, and the resurgence of market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] - The spot price of logs is stable, the expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, the supply pressure will ease, and the daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] - The production of natural rubber in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, and there is still room for the raw material price to decline; port inventories remain high, and the weak fundamentals cannot support the continuous rise of rubber prices [6] - Due to the large arrival volume of soybeans and high - pressure oil extraction by oil mills, the inventories of three major oils are continuously rising; the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; however, palm oil is oscillating strongly due to the popular export, the rising expectation of biodiesel, and the rebound of international crude oil [7] - US tariff policies continue to pressure oil prices, PX is continuously destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; the supply - demand expectation of PTA is weakening and it will follow cost fluctuations in the short term; the raw materials are differentiated, but the supply - demand of MEQ is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] - The market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern livestock farmers are forced to cut prices for promotion due to the pressure of selling livestock, while the south stabilizes the market by adjusting the supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, and the regional price difference is gradually widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9] Summary by Industry Stock and Bond - Data reflects China's economic resilience, market risk aversion eases, recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures; market interest rates are consolidating, treasury bonds are rebounding slightly, recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [2] Black - Under "anti - involution", finished steel supply may shrink; the expectation of old - city renovation and shantytown transformation has led to long - position funds, and the coke price increase by mainstream coking plants will be implemented this week, driving the black sector to rise sharply [3] Gold - Trump's tariff measures have escalated the trade war, market risk aversion has boosted the gold price; the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and this week's CPI data should be monitored; gold is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [4] Logs - Spot price is stable, expected arrival volume will decrease month - on - month, supply pressure eases, daily average outbound volume has fallen below 60,000 cubic meters; fundamentals show weak supply and demand, and the impact of log futures delivery on log prices should be noted [5] Rubber - Production in domestic and foreign producing areas is increasing steadily, raw material price has room to decline; port inventories remain high, and weak fundamentals cannot support continuous rise of rubber prices [6] Oils - Due to large soybean arrival and high - pressure oil extraction, inventories of three major oils are rising; supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand, lacking self - driving force; palm oil is oscillating strongly due to popular export, rising biodiesel expectation, and international crude oil rebound [7] Oil - related Chemicals - US tariff policies pressure oil prices, PX is destocking and fluctuates with oil prices; PTA supply - demand expectation is weakening and follows cost fluctuations in the short term; raw materials are differentiated, but MEQ supply - demand is weakening, and the upside space of the futures price is restricted [8] Livestock - Market supply - demand stalemate is obvious; northern farmers cut prices due to selling pressure, the south stabilizes the market by adjusting supply rhythm; weak consumer demand restricts price increases, regional price difference is widening; domestic hog prices are expected to maintain small fluctuations [9]

即将公布的美国通胀数据或将成为影响黄金走势的下一个关键因素。目前，市场普遍预期6月总体CPI 年率将从2.4%上升至2.7%，同时，6月核心CPI同比涨幅预计会达到3%，高于5月的2.8%。若实际数据 符合或超出这一预期，可能会强化市场对美联储维持高利率政策的预期，从而进一步对金价构成压力； 反之，如果通胀数据低于预期，则可能重新点燃市场对降息的期待，为黄金价格提供支撑。 此外，美联储主席鲍威尔的去留问题也开始引起市场的广泛关注。近期，特朗普政府频繁向美联储施 压，要求其降低利率。特朗普还特别指出了美联储总部大楼翻修项目超支的问题，并对此事表示质疑。 白宫经济顾问哈西特更是将超支的7亿美元责任直接归咎于美联储。尽管直接解雇鲍威尔的可能性不 大，但这种政治干预已经让市场感到不安，增加了不确定性。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日周二（7月15日)亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于775.36元附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报777.30元/ 克，上涨0.15%，最高触及779.08元/克，最低下探775.84元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 沪金期货当前呈现震荡 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a marginal improvement in financing conditions and a stable, accommodative monetary environment as of June 2025 [2][3] - In June 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, significantly higher than May's 0.62 trillion yuan, while new social financing reached 4.20 trillion yuan compared to 2.29 trillion yuan in May [3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9% in June, slightly up from 8.7% in May, and M2 growth was 8.3%, up from 7.9% in the previous month [3] Group 2 - Government bonds continued to support the growth rate of social financing in June, with net financing of government bonds reaching 1.41 trillion yuan, although slightly down from 1.49 trillion yuan in May [3][5] - The demand for credit from the real economy remains weak, indicating that the effects of a loose monetary policy may take time to materialize [3] - The report notes that while corporate short-term loans showed seasonal improvement, medium to long-term loans remained low, suggesting weak investment intentions among enterprises [3] Group 3 - The report indicates that the growth rates of M1 and M2 have both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, which may reflect a marginal improvement in economic activity [3][34] - The adjustment in the bond market is primarily driven by risk appetite and asset pricing effects, with expectations that the adjustment period will be limited in time and space [3] - The report anticipates that the probability of continued tight funding conditions in July is low, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3]