Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel market shows weak supply and demand. After the military parade, production will resume, but demand remains weak, suppressing prices. Steel futures valuation has been restored to a neutral range, and downstream buyers can consider selective hedging [2]. - The short - term fundamentals of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, with prices under pressure. Although the "anti - involution" policy provides long - term support, current supply is increasing, and demand may be weak, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [2]. - Coking coal and coke prices are weak. Spot prices are falling, and the futures market is also under pressure. The market expects 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts for coke in September. However, due to factors such as the upcoming National Day and winter storage, and the "anti - involution" policy, the downward space may be limited [4]. - Iron ore prices are in a shock range. Although iron ore supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, the pre - National Day restocking demand provides some support. The 01 contract still has effective support at the bottom [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 4, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3167 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%); HC2605 closed at 3325 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.27%); J2605 closed at 1677.5 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan (- 1.06%); JM2605 closed at 1149.5 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 1.29%). For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (- 0.06%); HC2601 closed at 3313 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan (0.24%); J2601 closed at 1581.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.37%); JM2601 closed at 1094.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 1.97%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on September 4 were: RB2601 - 2605 was - 50 yuan/ton, HC2601 - 2605 was - 12 yuan/ton, J2601 - 2605 was - 96 yuan/ton, JM2601 - 2605 was - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit on September 4: the coil - to - rebar spread was 196 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.44, the rebar futures profit was - 37.48 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 125.82 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On September 4, the spot prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3210 yuan/ton, 3210 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2960 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 105.1 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coils were 3370 yuan/ton, 3420 yuan/ton, and 3360 yuan/ton respectively; the billet - to - product spread was 250 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special Powder at Qingdao Port, etc. were 670 yuan/ton, 715 yuan/ton, etc.; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1180 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, and the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/ton [1]. - On September 4, the basis of HC, RB, J, and JM main contracts were 57 yuan/ton, 93 yuan/ton, 98.66 yuan/ton, and 115.5 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach on a single - side basis and use futures or options for hedging at appropriate times [2][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, short on rallies [6]. - For coking coal and coke, gradually take profit on previous short positions and consider batch - wise layout of medium - term long positions [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "neutral" rating for the overall black building materials industry, with a mid - term outlook of "sideways" [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the military parade approaches, production restrictions and cut - backs in steel mills and the coal - coke sector have intensified. After the parade, there is a high possibility of production resumption, and the industry may still have upward potential. The subsequent price fluctuations of industry products will be dominated by the production resumption logic after the parade, and the macro and policy expectations at home and abroad may also affect price volatility [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month as expected. Iron water production decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of further decline as steel mills in Hebei enter maintenance. However, the impact is limited, and iron ore demand may return to a high level after the parade. Port inventories decreased, and the total inventory declined slightly. The price is expected to move sideways. For scrap steel, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - As the parade approaches, coke production restrictions are stronger than those of steel mills. The short - term coke supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs to be monitored. The coking coal market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the current inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term price support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure. For ferrosilicon, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are firm. After the post - trading of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still offers a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline sideways [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [6][16]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current fundamentals are weak, after the parade, iron water production may return to a high level, and the potential for phased restocking during the peak season may drive the price up [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to move sideways. Overseas mine shipments and arrivals increased, iron water production decreased slightly, and inventories decreased [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With low EAF profits and tight resources, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coke**: The voices for price hikes are weakening, and the futures price is moving sideways. The short - term supply remains tight, and the price has support before the parade. After the parade, the recovery of iron water production needs attention [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term. After the parade, the impact of short - term disturbances will disappear, and future regulatory policies, coal mine production resumption, and Mongolian coal imports need to be monitored [12][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is acceptable, and the cost provides short - term support. However, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price has significant downward pressure [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not large, and the cost supports the price in the short term. But the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline [18].

Summary of Viscose Staple Fiber Industry Research Industry Overview - The viscose staple fiber industry has seen a significant increase in concentration, with the top three companies, Sidelong, Zhongtai Chemical, and Tangshan Sanyou, increasing their market share from 27% in 2014 to 72% in 2024, with Sidelong holding 37% [1][2] - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China is projected to grow from 3 million tons in 2014 to over 4.2 million tons by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [1][8] - The total production capacity of viscose staple fiber has gradually decreased since 2022, with a reduction of about 9% expected by the end of 2024, bringing total capacity to approximately 4.82 million tons, down from a peak of 4.85 million tons [1][5] Supply-Side Dynamics - The supply-side situation is characterized by capacity contraction, strict policy controls, and market structure optimization. Since 2022, there has been no new capacity added, and the overall capacity has decreased by about 10% over the past three years [2][5] - Policies have been implemented to restrict supply-side development, including the elimination of outdated capacity (approximately 550,000 to 560,000 tons) and raising energy consumption standards [6][2] - The industry currently operates at a high utilization rate of 85%-86%, with low inventory levels, which supports price increases during the traditional peak season [1][9] Demand-Side Trends - The demand for viscose staple fiber is closely linked to the textile and apparel sector's performance. The demand structure has shifted, with the proportion of cotton blended yarn decreasing and non-woven fabric demand increasing [3][8] - By 2024, cotton blended yarn is expected to account for 55% of downstream demand, down 22% from 2015, while non-woven fabric's share is projected to rise to 18% from just 3% in 2015 [8] - The price of viscose staple fiber is expected to rise due to the correlation with cotton prices, which have been increasing as cotton inventories reach a seven-year low [4][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape has changed significantly, with the top three companies now holding over 72% of the market share. The market concentration has increased from less than 30% in 2014 to 72% in 2024 [7][2] - Other companies with production capabilities include Jilin Chemical Fiber (120,000 tons) and Nanjing Chemical Fiber (80,000 tons), but the overall market remains highly concentrated [7][11] Price Trends - Over the past 20 years, viscose staple fiber has experienced four major price increases driven by various factors, including market acceptance, demand growth, and policy changes [10] Key Companies - Major companies in the viscose staple fiber sector include Sanyou Chemical, Zhongtai Chemical, Jilin Chemical Fiber, and Nanjing Chemical Fiber, with Sanyou Chemical having the largest external sales at approximately 820,000 tons [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering declaring a "national housing emergency" this fall, which could become a key policy focus ahead of the midterm elections, emphasizing housing affordability as a central issue for the Republican agenda in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - Specific measures under consideration include unifying local building and zoning regulations and reducing home transfer costs, aimed at streamlining the home-buying process and minimizing unnecessary expenses [2]. - The administration may pursue these measures through executive action rather than legislative processes, reflecting a strategy used previously to bypass Congress [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Context - High interest rates are identified as a core reason for the sluggish housing market, increasing loan costs and thereby raising the barriers to homeownership, which in turn adds pressure to government debt [4]. - The Trump administration's approach contrasts with that of Democratic candidates, who propose tax incentives and down payment assistance to alleviate the burden on low- to middle-income homebuyers [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The housing issue affects a broad voter base, including first-time buyers, families considering moving, and investors monitoring real estate trends, indicating the potential political ramifications of housing policies [7]. - While proposed measures may alleviate some immediate issues, the fundamental challenges of supply-demand dynamics and financing costs remain unresolved, particularly if the Federal Reserve does not lower interest rates [7][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key points to monitor include whether the Trump administration will indeed declare a housing emergency this fall and whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its interest rate policies, as both factors are critical to addressing the housing crisis [9].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1285元/吨，近期震荡 下行；纯碱周度产量71.91万吨，环比-6.78%；纯碱厂家总库存 186.75万吨，周下降2.27%；浮法玻璃开工率75.48%，周度 +0.14%；全国浮法玻璃均价1154元/吨，环比上日+1元/吨；全 国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6256.6万重箱，环比下降1.64%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作气氛偏 淡，企业多数趋稳操作，浙江主流企业出厂价格走高，中下游 操作仍偏谨慎，刚需为主。国内纯碱市场走势偏弱，纯碱企业 库存高位，装置运行波动不大，个别企业负荷提升，下游需求 一般，按需为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡偏弱，上方压力 1305一线，建议观望。 【短评-黄金】欧央行行长拉加德表示，2%的通胀目标已经 达成，将继续采取必要措施确保通胀得到控制，价格保持稳 定。欧元区8月制造业PMI终值从7月份的49.8升至50.7的三年多 高点，高于初值50.5，自2022年中期以来首次扩张。评：欧元 区经济强劲，对美元形成一定施压。市场担心美联储独立性受 到挑战，担心美国经济再度陷入通胀风险，黄金避险属性再度 ...

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries including polyolefins, crude oil, chlor-alkali, pure benzene-styrene, methanol, PX-PTA-EG, and urea on September 2, 2025. It presents price changes, supply-demand dynamics, and offers investment strategies for each sector. 1. Polyolefins Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the polyolefin market shows a "supply decrease and demand increase" characteristic, with inventory reduction and controllable market pressure. It is recommended to hold the expanding position of the LP01 contract [2]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices declined slightly. The basis of some varieties changed, and the spread between different contracts also showed fluctuations [2]. - **Supply**: PE's early - September device maintenance volume remains high, and the scale gradually decreases after the middle of the month. PP shows a "supply - demand double - increase" situation due to new capacity release and the return of maintenance devices [2]. - **Demand**: The downstream industry's开工 rate increased compared to last month, but new orders have weak support [2]. 2. Crude Oil Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Overnight oil prices fluctuated strongly. The market is in a game between geopolitical risk support and long - term oversupply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and look for opportunities to expand spreads after increased volatility [4]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose. The spreads of some refined oil products and cracking spreads also changed [4]. - **Supply - Demand**: OPEC + production cuts, inventory decline, and China's strategic reserve absorption ease short - term pressure, but the expectation of war suppressing demand may lead to a 10% drop in oil prices this year and a large - scale surplus at the end of the year [4]. 3. Chlor - Alkali Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The caustic soda futures market is strong, and the PVC market is in an oversupply situation and is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [7]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The export profit of caustic soda decreased, and the export profit of PVC increased. The开工 rate and profit of related industries also changed [7]. - **Supply**: The开工 rate of the caustic soda and PVC industries declined [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda increased, while the demand for PVC remained weak [7]. 4. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In September, the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene weakens, and the absolute price is under pressure. The short - term driving force of styrene is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in supply - demand later [15]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the spreads between related products also changed [13][14]. - **Supply**: The planned maintenance of pure benzene devices in September is few, and new devices are expected to be put into production. The short - term supply of styrene remains high [15]. - **Demand**: The downstream of pure benzene has multiple loss - making varieties, and the demand for styrene is currently strong but may be affected by future device maintenance [15]. 5. Methanol Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The methanol market has a problem of continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and the basis is weak. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion rhythm [21]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Methanol futures prices rose slightly, and the basis and spread changed [21]. - **Supply**: Domestic and overseas methanol enterprises'开工 rate changed, and imports in September are still large [21]. - **Demand**: Traditional downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the restart of MTO devices at ports [21]. 6. PX - PTA - EG Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply - demand of PX, PTA, and EG is expected to improve, and short - fiber also has a good supply - demand expectation, but the de - stocking amplitude is limited [25]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: PX, PTA, and EG prices and spreads changed. PTA's processing margin decreased slightly [25]. - **Supply**: PX's maintenance devices restart, PTA's planned unplanned maintenance increases, and domestic EG's开工 rate is high [25]. - **Demand**: The polyester and terminal loads increased, and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectation still exists [25]. 7. Urea Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The urea futures market is weak, mainly due to weak demand. The upward pressure on the futures price is large under high - supply conditions [34]. Summary by Catalog - **Price and Spread**: Urea prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the spreads between different regions also changed [34]. - **Supply**: Although there are local maintenance plans, the daily output remains at about 180,000 tons [34]. - **Demand**: Agricultural off - season and industrial on - demand procurement suppress domestic demand, and dealers' fertilizer - stocking willingness is low [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar**: The production rhythm in Brazil has improved in the first half of August, with a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production, which is bearish for raw sugar. However, concerns about weather and domestic consumption improvement provide support. In China, import pressure is being realized, but the low inventory pressure of sugar - making enterprises and the warming up of transactions limit the downside space of the 2601 contract [3]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp**: The pulp industry chain shows few positive signs. Supply pressure remains, and demand improvement is limited. The price has no strong upward drive, but the low valuation provides some support [4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton**: The external market is in a long - short game, and the domestic market is affected by rumors of state reserve sales. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [6]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple**: The opening price of early - maturing apples has increased year - on - year, and concerns about the excellent fruit rate support the futures price [7]. - **Fresh Fruit Sector - Jujube**: The inventory of jujubes is being depleted, and the market is moving towards the peak season. The futures price of the 2601 contract is affected by multiple factors, and investors can adopt different strategies according to their risk preferences [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2510, the recommended strategy is to wait and see or take a short - term long position due to the increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples and concerns about the excellent fruit rate. The support range is 7700 - 7800, and the pressure range is 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce long positions as the commodity sentiment is strong and the third - quarter is the production - forming period, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, the recommended strategy is to reduce short positions as the estimated production in Brazil is lowered, and the downside space of the futures price is limited. The support range is 5530 - 5550, and the pressure range is 5630 - 5650. For Pulp 2511, the recommended strategy is to be bearish in the range because the coniferous pulp price is below the cost, but the supply pressure remains, and the price of finished paper is low. The support range is 4900 - 5000, and the pressure range is 5200 - 5300. For Cotton 2601, the recommended strategy is to return to a wait - and - see state as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rumor of state reserve sales lead to short - term price fluctuations [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In July, China's fresh apple export volume was about 53,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. The estimated national apple production is expected to decrease by 2.03% according to one survey and increase by 2.35% according to another [18]. - **Spot Market Situation**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. In the northwest production area, the early - maturing Fuji is priced high, and the quality is good, with active procurement by merchants. In the sales area, the arrival of goods has increased significantly, and the price is stable [19][20]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The temperature in the main jujube - producing areas in Xinjiang has decreased slightly, and some areas have experienced light rain. The daily arrival of goods in the sales area has decreased. The price of high - quality jujubes is strong, and the price of ordinary jujubes is stable. The sample - point physical inventory has decreased [21]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The ISO reports that the 2025/26 sugar season will have a supply gap of only 23,100 tons. Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August has increased significantly year - on - year. In China, the spot price of sugar in different regions is reported [24][25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported radiata pine has been reduced by $20 per ton, while most suppliers keep the price of coniferous pulp unchanged. Suzano has increased the price of broad - leaf pulp for September orders [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market In July 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports and yarn exports have increased. Argentina's cotton exports have decreased in July, and the cumulative exports in the 2024/25 season have decreased year - on - year [28]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review The daily closing prices, price changes, and price change rates of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are reported [29][30]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [32]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description about the basis situation, only figure references are provided [43][44][46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apple, jujube, sugar, and cotton are in a state of oscillation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [49]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [56][57][59]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton are reported [76]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description, only figure references are provided [78][80][81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong, but no specific overall industry investment rating is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak season and positive domestic and international macro - economic trends, the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Catalog Price Data - This week, the spot premium first declined and then increased, and it is expected to remain firm next week [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation was limited this week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.33 per ton week - on - week to - $41.48 per ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at nine ports increased by 148,800 tons week - on - week to 710,600 tons [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [20] - Due to increased maintenance in September and a shortage of anode plate supply, the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline by more than 4% month - on - month [22] - In July, the net import of refined copper in China was 178,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [24] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week [26] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week, with weak orders and pick - ups, and it is expected to rebound next week [29] - From August 1st to 24th, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [32] - Production is based on demand, and the component output in August changed little month - on - month [33] - The planned production volume of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual volume of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - The manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.1 points month - on - month, and the business climate improved [40] - The year - on - year increase of the US core PCE price index in July reached 2.9%, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact is still controllable [41] - The annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% [44]

周度报告—碳酸锂 仓单陆续回流，盘面延续回调 [Table_Summary] ★仓单陆续回流，盘面延续回调 上周锂盐价格延续回落。LC2509 收盘价环比-2.8%至 7.70 万元/ 吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-2.3%至 7.72 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工 业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-5.1%、-5.2%至 7.97、7.74 万元/吨。周 内氢氧化锂价格微跌，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均 价环比-0.8%至 7.69、8.19 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平于 0.23 万 元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比收窄 0.37 万元至 0.28 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 上周盘面依旧偏弱运行，除商品市场情绪整体偏弱外，市场担忧 价格反弹后增量供应将补足枧下窝停产带来的产量损失、同时显 性的仓单及基差暂未显示出实质性利多兑现。产量方面，据 SMM 数据，中国碳酸锂周产量已连续两周环比回落；分项而言，锂辉 石产碳酸锂周产仍在环比攀升、但增幅已较此前明显放缓，且锂 辉石代工费已从前期的 1.9 万元/吨回升至 2.2 万元/吨左右，或 表明国内有效产能开工率已接近峰值，调研显示，9 月进一 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have risen slightly, surpassing the $3400 mark, benefiting from the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and Trump, which may undermine the credibility of the dollar and the Fed, making gold a safe haven for investors [2] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump to block his dismissal attempt, which could escalate to the Supreme Court, seeking a ruling that Trump's dismissal order is illegal and invalid [2] - If the Federal Reserve loses its independence, it may damage its credibility in combating inflation, leading to increased risks for the dollar and bonds, while pushing inflation higher, thus making gold the preferred safe-haven asset [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices have seen a slight rebound, but overall performance remains weak due to various fundamental disruptions, including decreased geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production increases, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [4] - OPEC+ has consistently increased production in Q3, but the actual increase has been below planned targets, which may reduce supply pressure; however, global oil production continues to rise, likely increasing supply pressure in Q4 [4] - The traditional peak travel season is nearing its end, leading to a decline in demand for oil products, which may result in a significant increase in global oil inventories [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating potential for continued fluctuations; short-term trends may reverse as prices enter a previous high transaction area [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating that a mid-term adjustment has begun, with significant pressure from long-term moving averages suggesting potential for new lows [7]