Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of pigs is increasing and being postponed, leading to downward pressure on pig prices, but the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, resulting in limited decline. Egg prices are expected to be supported in the short - term but face long - term supply pressure. The short - term outlook for palm oil is weak, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be stronger than palm oil in the short - term. In the long - term, the overall trend of oils is to decline in the second quarter and potentially rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, with a long - term upward trend. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias in the long - term, but the upside is limited by substitutes [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Product Pigs - On May 13, the spot prices in different regions were stable. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening has weakened, and the supply will increase later. In the long - term, the supply from April to September 2024 is increasing, and there is a risk of price decline. The strategy is to go short on rebounds. The pressure and support levels for 07 and 09 contracts are provided [1]. Eggs - On May 13, egg prices in some regions increased. Short - term price support may come from pre - holiday demand, but long - term supply pressure is significant. The strategy is to short on rebounds for the 06 contract and take a bearish view on the 08 and 09 contracts [2]. Oils - **Palm oil**: The production increase in Malaysia is greater than the export increase, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The 07 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term. In China, the inventory is decreasing but is expected to rise from May to June [4]. - **Soybean oil**: The USDA report is positive, and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US is also positive, but the upside of US soybeans is limited. In China, the inventory is expected to increase due to large imports from May to July [5]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The supply in Canada is tightening, and the ICE rapeseed is expected to rebound. In China, the inventory is high, but if the supply tightens, the inventory may gradually decrease [6]. Soybean Meal - The price of US soybeans rebounded on May 12. In the short - term, the domestic price is expected to fall due to increased supply, but in the long - term, it may be strong due to cost and weather factors. The strategy is to go short in the short - term and long in the long - term for the 09 contract [8]. Corn - On May 12, the price in some regions increased, while in others it decreased. In the short - term, the price is supported by reduced supply from farmers, but the upside is limited by demand. In the long - term, the price may rise but is restricted by substitutes. The strategy is to go long at the lower end of the 07 contract range [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview - Provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products on May 12, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：震荡偏强 现货方面：PT ...

关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 钢材：关税政策转机，市场情绪转好 市场分析 昨日，螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3082元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3220元/吨。现货方面，根据昨日钢银数据显示，全 国库存为814.09万吨，环比上周减少1.21%。其中，钢材库存环比减少4.08%，热卷环比增加3.23%。昨日钢材现货 成交整体一般偏好，市场整体情绪好转，投机成交有所恢复。 综合来看：热卷：目前板材基本维持高产量，高消费，低库存，尤其在国内低价优势下，出口韧性较强。螺纹： 近期建材产销存数据表现不佳，由于目前短流程持续亏损，建材产量受到边际抑制，建材消费仍处于传统旺季， 整体库存保持低位，后期去库空间有限。昨日成材受关税政策缓和影响，市场情绪高涨，价格上涨。 策略 单边：震荡，关注情绪改善下的贴水修复 黑色建材日报 | 2025-05-13 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：中美谈判超预期，铁矿石大幅上涨 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格大幅上涨。截至收盘，铁矿石主力2509合约收于718.5/吨，涨幅3.16%。现货方面，主流 品种价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The international soybean market supply and demand is generally loose, and the new US soybean crop is expected to face pressure. The South American market is in the peak supply period, and prices are expected to remain under pressure. In the domestic market, the arrival volume of soybeans is expected to increase, and the supply situation is expected to improve, but there is still some pressure [2][3]. - The raw sugar is affected by the expected high - yield in Brazil and shows a weak trend, but is expected to fluctuate due to the support of buying orders below. The domestic sugar market has a higher sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, driving Zhengzhou sugar to be stronger than raw sugar. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][11]. - The macro - factors will still have a significant impact on the oil market. In the short term, the Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory significantly in April and continue to increase production and accumulate inventory later. The domestic soybean oil inventory will start to accumulate, and the basis may weaken. The domestic rapeseed oil supply exceeds demand, and the decline space may be limited [17][20]. - The US corn is sowing faster and is in a bottom - shock state. The domestic corn supply is relatively short, and the spot price is still strong, but the increase space may be limited. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [28][29]. - The recent enthusiasm for hog slaughter is average, but the supply pressure is still reflected due to the increase in slaughter weight. The futures market is expected to face pressure [35]. - The peanut spot trading volume is still small, and the downstream consumption is weak. However, the large - scale oil mills' increased purchases boost the market, and the new - season peanuts in October still have room for rebound [39][43]. - The overall supply of eggs is expected to be sufficient, and the egg price has shown signs of stability recently. It is recommended to close out the previous short positions and wait and see [49][51]. - The apple cold - storage inventory is at a low level this year, and the supply is likely to be tight before the new fruit is on the market. The demand is okay, and the spot price is strong. The apple price is expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger [54][58]. - The short - term supply of cotton is sufficient, and the demand is average. The market has entered the off - season. Considering the uncertainty of global trade policies, especially the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, it is recommended to wait and see [63][66]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean/M粕类 - **外盘情况**：CBOT大豆指数持平于1043.75美分/蒲式耳，CBOT豆粕指数下跌0.67%至297.4美元/短吨[2] - **相关资讯**：预计美国2025/26年度大豆期末库存为3.62亿蒲式耳，产量料为43.38亿蒲式耳；中国4月大豆进口608.1万吨；国际豆粕出口主要供应国出口量转降；截至5月9日当周，油厂大豆实际压榨量184.6万吨，开机率51.89%，大豆库存较上周增加3.3%，同比增加13.28%，豆粕库存较上周增加9.76%，同比减少84.36%[2] - **逻辑分析**：国际市场供需偏宽松，美豆新作有压力，南美处于供应高峰期价格承压；国内大豆到港量增加，油厂开机率恢复，供应好转但仍有压力[3] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式策略[6] Sugar - **外盘情况**：昨日ICE美糖主力合约上涨0.32（1.83%）至17.82美分/磅[7] - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月底，本制糖期全国产糖1110.72万吨，同比增加11.59%，销售食糖724.46万吨，同比增加26.07%，销糖率65.22%；印度2025 - 26年度糖产量预计达3500万吨，增长26%；现货方面，部分制糖集团和加工厂报价有调整，后半段成交尚可[8][9][10] - **逻辑分析**：原糖受巴西丰产预期影响偏弱，预计震荡运行；国内产销比高、库存低带动郑糖强于原糖，预计短期震荡运行，关注广西天气[11] - **交易策略**：单边震荡运行，波段操作；套利观望；期权卖出宽跨式期权[12][13][14] Oilseeds and Oils - **外盘情况**：隔夜CBOT美豆油主力价格变动0.25%至48.64美分/磅；BMD马棕油主力价格变动0.37%至3815林吉特/吨，周一马盘休市[16] - **相关资讯**：巴西2024/25年度大豆作物商业化销售达预期产量的57%，较去年同期和历史均值延迟；阿根廷2024/25年度大豆收割率为45%，落后去年同期；加拿大油菜籽出口量增加，库存为120.1万吨；5月9日，油脂总成交环比增加63%[17][18][19] - **逻辑分析**：中美谈判达成共识，宏观因素影响盘面；4月马棕累库明显，后期继续增产累库，中国和印度买船积极性增加；巴西大豆到港，国内油厂压榨量增加，豆油库存累库，基差或走弱；国内菜油供大于求，盘面受国际关系影响反复，下跌空间有限[20] - **交易策略**：单边预计短期油脂震荡运行，豆油和菜油有利多支撑，棕榈油基本面转弱，可轻仓试多博反弹或反弹后逢高空；套利YP 09可部分止盈部分持有；期权观望[21][22][23] Corn/Corn Starch - **外盘变化**：CBOT玉米期货外盘反弹，主力合约反弹0.2%，收盘为450.5美分/蒲[27] - **重要资讯**：截至5月9日当周，CBOT玉米期货延续下跌，美国玉米播种顺利，巴西二季玉米丰产预期压制价格；美国玉米主产州未来6 - 10日部分地区气温低于正常、降水高于正常；全国饲料企业平均库存增加；5月12日北港收购价稳定，华北产区周末回调[28] - **逻辑分析**：美玉米播种加快，底部震荡；国内玉米供应少，东北玉米上涨，港口价格稳定，抛储和糙米拍卖传闻影响下，华北玉米现货回落，小麦价格上涨，玉米现货仍偏强，中长期上涨空间有限，07玉米高位震荡，期现价差缩小[29] - **持仓建议**：单边外盘07玉米450美分/蒲附近有支撑，07玉米等待回调，观望为主；套利玉米和淀粉套利震荡操作，逢低做扩；期权有现货的可考虑逢高累沽策略[32][33] Hogs - **相关资讯**：生猪价格整体震荡，部分地区持平或有小幅度涨跌；仔猪价格下跌，母猪价格持平；农产品批发价格指数和猪肉平均价格下降[35] - **逻辑分析**：近期生猪出栏积极性一般，但出栏体重增加使供应压力体现，大小猪价差回落或使出栏增加，关注现货跌价情况，期货预计有压力[35] - **交易策略**：单边偏空思路为主；套利LH79反套；期权卖出宽跨式策略[38] Peanuts - **重要资讯**：各地花生通货米有报价区间；部分油厂到货及成交价格情况；花生油报价偏强，有议价空间；花生粕走货少；国内花生油样本企业花生库存减少，花生油库存增加[39][40] - **逻辑分析**：花生现货成交少，新季花生价格稳定，进口花生价格稳定、进口量大幅减少，花生油厂收购价格稳定，下游消费弱；豆粕现货回落，花生粕价格稳定，油厂有利润，大型油厂收购量增加；市场预计新季种植面积增加，河南等地干旱易炒作天气，10花生有反弹空间[41][43] - **持仓建议**：单边10花生轻仓逢低短多；套利观望；期权观望[44][45][46] Eggs - **重要资讯**：主产区和主销区均价下跌后全国主流价格多数上涨；4月份全国在产蛋鸡存栏量增加，样本企业蛋鸡苗月度出苗量增加；5月9日一周全国主产区蛋鸡淘鸡出栏量增加；5月1日当周全国代表销区鸡蛋销量减少，生产和流通环节库存增加；鸡蛋盈利减少，蛋鸡养殖预期利润上涨[48][49][50] - **交易逻辑**：鸡蛋整体供应充足，在产存栏量高，蛋价跌至当前位置后有稳定迹象，建议前期空单获利平仓观望[51] - **交易策略**：单边空单可考虑获利平仓；套利多08空09；期权观望[52] Apples - **重要资讯**：截至2025年4月16日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量减少，去库同比加快；2024 - 2025年苹果进出口量有变化；冷库苹果剩余量低于往年同期，山东产地冷库惜售，出货速度后期放缓，陕西产区价格稳定，出货情况尚可但可供交易货量不大；山东和陕西产区现货价格有变动，栖霞存储商利润增加[54][55][56] - **交易逻辑**：今年苹果冷库库存处于低位，新果上市前供应大概率偏紧，需求端走货尚可，现货价格偏强，4月份西部产区天气影响部分产区坐果，预计苹果走势震荡略偏强[58] - **交易策略**：单边AP10短期逢低建仓多单；套利建议先观望；期权建议先观望[59][60][61] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **外盘影响**：昨日ICE美棉主力合约下跌0.01（0.01%）至66.72美分/磅[62] - **重要资讯**：中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，将建立磋商机制；美棉主产区和德州干旱指数下行；CFTC发布ICE棉花期货合约ON - CALL数据，卖方未点价合约有变动[63][64][65] - **交易逻辑**：基本面棉花短期供应充足，需求一般，进入需求淡季，纱线和坯布库存有累库迹象；全球经济和贸易政策不确定性大，关注中美关税谈判后续动态，建议观望[66] - **交易策略**：单边预计未来美棉走势大概率震荡略偏强，郑棉近期宏观不确定性大，建议观望；套利空09多01；期权观望[67][68][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA prices rebounded after a decline. Short - term geopolitical tensions led to an oil price rebound, strengthening cost support. With reduced supply pressure and increased polyester demand, there is an upward repair momentum for short - term valuations [3]. - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. Supply increased slightly, demand from polyester and printing and dyeing industries rose, import arrivals decreased significantly, but the visible inventory did not decline, so the overall valuation remained volatile [4]. - PF and PR prices followed the cost increase. Production and operating rates of domestic polyester staple fiber and polyester bottle - chips increased, but demand did not improve significantly, and the spot trading atmosphere was weak. Short - term attention should be paid to cost changes [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 PX & PTA - **PX**: Cost - end support strengthened. Geopolitical tensions caused a short - term oil price rebound, while the long - term supply of crude oil remained loose. The domestic PX plant operating rate was 73% (down 1.4% month - on - month), and the Asian operating rate was 67.9% (down 3.3% month - on - month) [3]. - **PTA**: The processing fee declined, and the operating rate was around 75.6% (down 7.6%). Some devices were adjusted, with some in maintenance and others restarting. Factory inventory and warehouse receipts decreased, and polyester operating rates remained stable while weaving and printing and dyeing operating rates recovered [3][43]. 3.2 MEG - The price of MEG maintained a volatile pattern. As of May 8, the overall operating load in mainland China was 68.99% (up 0.56%), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 66.75% (up 4.54%). The operating rates of polyester and printing and dyeing industries increased slightly. The planned arrival at the main port from May 6 - 11 was about 5.9 million tons, a significant decrease in imports. As of May 6, the port inventory in the East China main port area was about 79 million tons (down 1 million tons), and the visible inventory did not decline [4]. 3.3 PF & PR - The prices of PF and PR followed the cost increase. The domestic polyester staple fiber production this week was expected to be around 166,700 tons, and the industry operating rate increased slightly to around 83.93%. The weekly production of polyester bottle - chips was about 346,558 tons, an increase of 2,762 tons from last week, and the industry operating rate was 87.57%, up 0.70%. The weekly inventory of staple fiber factories was 343,600 tons (up 3.59% month - on - month), and the weekly inventory of bottle - chip factories was 231,300 tons (up 2.17% month - on - month) [5].

原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 曹剑兰 Z0019556 | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月8日 | 5月7日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2507 | 780.0 | 792.5 | -12.5 | -1.58% | | | 原木2509 | 794.5 | 803.0 | -8.5 | -1.06% | | | 原木2511 | 800.5 | 808.0 | -7.5 | -0.93% | | | 7-9价差 | -14.5 | -10.5 | -4.0 | | | | 9-11价差 | -6.0 | -5.0 | -1.0 | | | | 7-11价差 | -20.5 | -15.5 | -5.0 | | | | 07合约基差 | -20.0 | -32.5 | 12.5 | | | | 09合约基差 | -34.5 | -43.0 | 8.5 | | 元/立方米 | | 11合约基差 | -40.5 | -48.0 | 7.5 | | | | 日 ...

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil from Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazilian soybean harvesting almost completed. South American new - crop harvest is likely to be abundant [2] - Domestic industry situation: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending. After the arrival of South American imported soybeans and customs clearance, soybean oil inventory may rebound from a low level [2] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short term [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Tianjin 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), Rizhao 3100 yuan/ton (+10), Dongguan 3270 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - Market analysis: Macro - level, Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks will be held in Switzerland. The market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak. In the domestic market, pay attention to the clearance of Brazilian soybeans after the holiday. Currently, the spot is tight, but it will ease as more soybeans arrive and oil mills resume operation. Downstream replenishment after the holiday may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn are 2184 yuan/ton in key deep - processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia, 2404 yuan/ton in key enterprises in North China and the Huang - Huai region. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - U.S. tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil. Domestically, the supply is tight during the new - old grain transition period, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the new - old grain gap period, and the corn price is likely to rise. It is advisable to take a short - term long position [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78290 - 78580 yuan, down 145 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties. Domestic policies support the market. The raw material supply problem persists, and the copper inventory in China is declining rapidly [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper price is balanced. In the short term, it is advisable to participate based on the moving average system [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) are 65700 yuan/ton (- 500) and 64000 yuan/ton (- 500) respectively, with a price difference of 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - Market analysis: The cost pressure is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is improving but not strong enough [7] - Inventory situation: The weekly inventory is increasing. As of April 24, the weekly inventory is 131864 tons (+259). The monthly inventory in March increased by 47% year - on - year and 17% month - on - month [8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short at high prices [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a neutral - low valuation. The cost is dynamic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations [9] - Reference view: After the macro - level negative factors are digested, it is advisable to take a long position at low prices for far - month contracts after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of coking coal (Meng 5) is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: The supply is loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may rebound weakly at a low level, but the upward space is limited [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.95, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 760 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 762 yuan [11] - Market analysis: The supply and demand factors are mixed. The global shipping volume has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased, the domestic demand has increased, but the overseas demand is differentiated. The U.S. tariff policy has an impact on the market [11] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract may fluctuate in the short term. Traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The Fed's interest - rate decision and geopolitical conflicts have an impact on the market. OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The demand may be affected by the trade war in the second quarter [12] - Reference view: The WTI main contract may fluctuate between 55 - 60 US dollars per barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the U.S. "equal - tariff" policy on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. The global supply and demand are both loose, and the trade - war narrative may affect the demand [13] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. The main contract has support around 14,000 yuan/ton [13] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [14] - Market analysis: The production enterprise operating rate has increased slightly. The demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and the inventory has decreased [14] - Reference view: The futures price may fluctuate at a low level due to weak demand [14] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1415 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices in different regions are also unchanged [15] - Market analysis: The operating rate has decreased slightly, the production has decreased, the inventory has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The downstream is more willing to buy low - priced goods [15] - Reference view: The futures market may fluctuate widely in the short term [15]

美银全球研究全球大宗商品研究团队在其报告中，就黄金价格走势给出了更为细致的研判。基于其专业 的供需模型分析，该团队认为，从理论层面而言，黄金价格具备轻松突破 3000 美元 / 盎司关口的潜 力。模型数据显示，在当前全球经济环境下，黄金的供需关系正逐渐向供不应求倾斜，这为金价上涨提 供了基本面支撑。一方面，随着全球央行纷纷采取宽松货币政策，货币供应量增加，纸币贬值预期增 强，使得黄金作为硬通货的吸引力进一步提升;另一方面，黄金矿产资源的开采难度不断加大，新增供 给有限，而工业需求与投资需求却在稳步增长，供需缺口的扩大为金价上行提供了动力。 但该团队同时指出，即便金价具备上行潜力，在当前市场环境下，短期内也难以突破 3500 美元 / 盎司 的高位，尤其是在贸易争端出现实质性缓解的情况下。贸易局势缓和会促使全球经济增长预期改善，投 资者风险偏好回升，资金将从避险资产流向风险资产，黄金价格的上涨动能会因此减弱。此外，黄金价 美联储的警告并非空穴来风。关税政策的实施与变动，严重干扰了全球供应链的稳定运行，增加了企业 生产成本与经营风险，进而对宏观经济增长前景蒙上阴影。在这种充满不确定性的环境下，投资者纷纷 将目光转 ...

5月8日盘中，PTA期货主力合约震荡上行，最高上探至4548.00元。截止收盘，PTA主力合约报4546.00 元，涨幅1.97%。 PTA期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ PX和PTA仍集中检修，但下游织造、加弹开工则环比下行54%、72%，5月过后聚酯开工又回落预期， PTA供需预计走弱。PTA观望过渡为主。 国信期货：PTA短期主要跟随成本波动 终端织造负荷季节性回落，但聚酯开工维持高位，下游原料刚需尚可，贸易战消息趋于缓和，关注后续 谈判进展。当前PTA装置检修较多，市场供应显著缩减，社会库存加速去化，基差走势偏强。PXN裂解 低位修复，但估值水平仍然偏低，绝对价格支撑较强，成本波动受原油影响较大。PTA短期主要跟随成 本波动，关注油价走势，建议区间逢低短多。 华联期货：PTA2509合约止损参考4350附近 供应端节后仍有装置检修，压力暂不大。需求端聚酯开工率高位维持，终端织造开工率偏弱运行，据隆 众，外贸工装订单稍有好转，不过市场对后市预期整体不佳。库存端延续去库格局。原油低位反复。总 体看PTA供需面尚可，成本驱动依旧反复。激进型投资者轻仓持多，2509合约止损参考435 ...