| 镍与不锈钢日评20250728:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124210.00 | 124160.00 | 120500.00 | 50.00 | | | | | | | | | | 期货连一合约 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120580.00 | 0.00 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 120670.00 | -30.00 | 124490.00 | | | | | 期货连三合约 | 124660.00 | 124710.00 | 120790.00 | -50.00 | 收盘价 | 收盘价 | 124360.00 | 124360.00 | 120500. ...

长城证券（002939）在近期研报中指出，破解"内卷"困局的根本路径仍在于提升经济增速、做大整体增 量。在此逻辑下，以AI为代表的科技赛道将继续担纲核心主线，并有望在市场波动中展现更强韧性。 基于以上，该机构建议近期关注恒生科技：7月26日上海世界人工智能大会聚焦"AI基础设施、金融科 技"等十大领域，叠加美国解除H20对华出口限制，国内算力短缺缓解，腾讯、阿里云业务资本开支有 望加速。 消息面上，7月26日上午，2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议在上海世博中心隆重 开幕。平安证券认为，我国国产大模型能力持续升级，在我国高度重视人工智能产业发展的背景下，我 国AI产业链将持续完善升级，应用落地及商业化步伐将进一步加速，我国AI产业未来发展前景广阔。 7月28日早盘，港股三大指数涨跌不一，恒生指数、恒生国企指数延续高开涨势，恒生科技指数震荡转 跌。A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）涨幅收窄，持仓股中，阿里巴巴、腾讯音乐、 京东集团、海尔智家（600690）、蔚来等涨幅居前，其中，阿里巴巴涨超2%。 截至7月25日，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）标的指数的最新估值（PET ...

【产业库存】本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存6189.6万重箱，环比下降304.3万重箱或4.69%，同比减少7.74%，连 降5周创今年2月份以来新低，折库存天数26.6天，较上期下降1.3天，尤其库存前期累积明显的华中地区，降幅最为 明显，进一步提振市场情绪。 【成本利润】成本方面，石油焦制、煤炭制、天然气制玻璃成本分别为1052、1008、1438元/吨，环比变化分别为-1 、+4、-4元/吨；生产利润分别为53.4、128.9、-168.4元/吨，环比变化分别为+58.18、+7.4、+10.54元/吨。 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 纯碱：交易所发布风险函，警惕价格回调 分析师：何慧 咨询账号：Z0011420 中辉期货研究院 2025.07.25 能源化工团队 郭建锋 F03126846 何 慧 Z0011420 郭艳鹏 F03104066 李 倩 F03134406 玻璃：政策预期热度降温，价格波动放大 【供应端】本周浮法玻璃行业开工率为75%，周环比下降0.34个百分点；产能利用率为79.48%，周环比增加0.57%， 日产量为15.9万吨，周环比小幅增加0.73%；周产量110.81万 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月28日08时24分 报告导读： 二、铁矿石 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，本周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.1 万吨，环比上周下降了 0.2 万吨。目前市场处于消费淡季，预计 近期铁水产量仍存在较大的回落压力 。另外，目前铁水产量已处于相对高位，即使进入消费旺季，继续上升的空间也比较有限。供应端，全球发运 处于相对高位且在沿着季节性回升趋势不断上升 ，预计未来到港量仍将处于高位。当前港口库存缓慢下降，库存的下降对期价构成支撑，但目前港 口贸易矿库存偏高。短期来看，随着双焦价格的见顶回落，预计铁矿石也将有所调整。技术面上，期价强势上升后连续回落，短线维持高位震荡概 率大。 随着大商所对焦煤合约采取限制开仓的措施 ，焦煤合约冲高回落，黑色商品全线回调。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量、表 需由降转增，厂库连续第二周减少，社库连续第二周增加。五大品种总库存有所上升，表观需求有所回落。从需求的季节性规律看，在暑期高温天 气 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is likely to rise in the short - term but has limited upside potential, facing pressure at the [5500] price level [3]. - The supply of PVC shows a weakening trend, with high production maintained. Domestic and export demand is declining, and social inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks. Although the current profit performance reflects a weak reality, under the policy expectations of capacity structure optimization, there is an increase in black and building material varieties. Attention should be paid to whether the rising coal price can repair the profits of the coal - based cost industry chain [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Supply - Demand Situation - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tightened supply at the calcium carbide/PVC end. The recent sharp rise in coal prices may strongly support costs, and attention should be paid to the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal prices to calcium carbide [9]. - **Demand - Inventory**: On July 25, the domestic PVC supply - side开工率 increased, enterprises received good orders, and market arrivals were normal. However, downstream procurement enthusiasm was poor, mainly from hedgers. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. The total inventory in the East and South China sample warehouses was 402,900 tons, up 3.65% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [10]. - **Demand - Calcium Carbide**: This week, the calcium carbide price slightly declined. The average calcium carbide industry开工率 rose to 72.20%, up 0.9% from the previous week. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia and the summer electricity peak. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [11][75]. - **Demand - Caustic Soda**: Most chlor - alkali enterprises are operating normally with sufficient supply. Some areas are supported by plant maintenance. In terms of downstream demand, the alumina industry provides rigid support, but non - aluminum industries perform averagely. Some enterprises face certain sales pressure, so the price has no strong upward driving force [12]. - **Demand - Production Capacity**: In the first quarter of 2025, 500,000 tons of production capacity were put into operation. 900,000 tons of production capacity are expected to be put into operation from July to August, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of 6.37% [13]. - **Demand - Export**: This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year. Exports to India are expected to slow down in summer [14]. 3.2 Disk Data - This week, both PVC futures and spot prices rose. The basis discount to the disk increased, with the East China 09 basis weakening to around - 220. The 9 - 1 spread changed little, around - 113. The 09 contract position was around 860,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 56,400 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional Spread**: The spread between East and South China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 33, and the spread between East and North China for calcium carbide - based PVC strengthened significantly to 223 [34]. - **Ethylene - Calcium Carbide Spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread weakened to - 3 [34]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium Carbide - Based Profit**: The current calcium carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. In areas with limited cost fluctuations and a significant increase in PVC spot prices, profits in various regions have improved significantly. North China has achieved profitability. Northwest integrated enterprises' comprehensive profit has expanded to around 680 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of purchasing calcium carbide in the Northwest is around 1,000 yuan/ton. Shandong's chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has turned from loss to profit at around 100 yuan/ton [45]. - **Ethylene - Based Profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5%. The profit of purchasing vinyl chloride is around the break - even point, and the profit of purchasing ethylene is a loss of 200 yuan/ton [46]. 3.5 Industrial Chain - Related Products - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Lanthanum Coke**: On July 25, the price of lanthanum coke remained stable. The average transaction price in the Shaanxi market was 580 - 630 yuan/ton. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 39.14%, unchanged from the previous week. In the future, the开工 rate may increase, and attention should be paid to the transmission of coal prices to lanthanum coke and calcium carbide prices [69]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Calcium Carbide**: On July 25, the calcium carbide price declined slightly. The average industry开工率 rose to 72.20%. In the future, most calcium carbide plants may maintain normal operations, but the increase in开工率 may be limited. PVC plants have many maintenance plans in July and August, so the demand for calcium carbide is expected to decrease. If there is an unexpected reduction in supply or the rising coal price is transmitted to the cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [75]. - **Calcium Carbide - Based PVC Raw Material - Caustic Soda**: On July 25, the spot price of liquid caustic soda fluctuated slightly. The开工率 of sample enterprises was 84%, up 1.4% from the previous week, and the inventory was 408,400 tons, up 6.38% from the previous week. In the future, the supply is sufficient, and the price has no strong upward driving force [81]. 3.6 Supply - **Production Capacity Progress**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Two ethylene - based plants of Fujian Wanhua and Bohua Development started trial production in July and are expected to achieve mass production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into operation in the third quarter [85]. - **开工率 and Maintenance**: On July 25, the overall开工率 of PVC powder was 75.81%, up 0.84% from the previous week. There were new maintenance enterprises this week, and some previously maintained enterprises resumed production. The theoretical loss due to parking and maintenance this week was 71,640 tons, down 279 tons from the previous week [87]. 3.7 Import - Export - **Import**: In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 63.80%. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia, and the import dependence is about 1% [116]. - **Export**: In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.61%. The cumulative export from January to June was 1,960,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.20%. The main destination is India. This week, the export order volume of PVC production enterprises decreased by 11.66% week - on - week and increased by 56% year - on - year [116][125]. 3.8 Demand - **Downstream开工率**: Currently, the downstream开工率 is at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the开工 rates of the profile and film industries improved, while the pipe industry continued to decline. Domestic downstream product enterprises continued to purchase at low prices, resisted high - priced raw materials, and faced seasonal weakening due to high temperatures [137]. - **Terminal - Real Estate**: From January to June, real estate investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and sales area decreased by 3.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in a downturn, and PVC demand may continue to shrink [154]. 3.9 Inventory - **Production Enterprises**: As of July 24, the available inventory of PVC powder in sample production enterprises was - 467,150 tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory was 312,250 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons from the previous period [169]. - **East and South China**: As of July 24, the original sample inventory in East China was 358,900 tons, up 3.97% from the previous period and down 29.50% year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 587,200 tons, up 3.82% from the previous period and down 30.64% year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 44,000 tons, up 1.15% from the previous period and down 26.93% year - on - year [169].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 周五国际油价回落，布伦特10合约周度跌1.13%，sc09合约周度跌0.56%。三季度旺季以来石油市 场延续了上半年的累库趋势,其中原油去库0.6%、成品油累库1.7%，OPEC+增产路径下石油市场的 供需盈余压力始终存在。美国政府有意放开雪弗龙在委内瑞拉的经营许可，委内瑞拉原油出口面临 20万桶/天左右的恢复。美日协议以利好落地后，市场对美国与欧盟、中国的贸易谈判走向存在乐观 预期，但我们认为与贸易战相关的利空风险在协议最终落地前始终存在,油价仍以震荡承压为主;8 月底、9月初伊核、俄乌协议面临欧美施压的最后期限,届时地缘犹动有望再度为市场带来支撑。 (责金属) 周五贵金属回落。近期美国经济数据体现韧性,美商务部长称8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延长。 美国与多个主要国家关税协议陆续达成，中美即将迎来新一轮谈判，超预期对抗概率较低，责金属 宽幅震荡为主。聚焦本周美联储会议鲍威尔表态是否出现边际变化。 围绕"反内卷"题材交投降温，锌市资金偏谨慎，多头高位减仓，沪锌2.3万整数关承压。宏观、资 金情绪发酵过后，市场仍将回归基本面主逻辑，锌矿端供应 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity driven by the dual logic of "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [1][10]. - The supply side is expected to improve as the industry collectively addresses overcapacity issues through policy guidance and collaboration among enterprises [2][8]. - The demand side is bolstered by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is projected to generate substantial cement demand in Tibet [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Cement Industry - The cement industry is witnessing a phase of supply-side improvement due to the government's focus on preventing "involution" and the coordinated efforts of leading companies to reduce overproduction [2]. - By the end of 2023, the designed capacity for new dry-process cement clinker in China is 1.84 billion tons, while actual capacity exceeds 2.1 billion tons, resulting in an overproduction rate of over 14% [2]. - The implementation of policies such as the capacity replacement measures is expected to lead to a significant reduction in actual production capacity, with a net decrease of 12.1 million tons achieved by April 2025 [2]. 2. Demand Side - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create a demand for 30-35 million tons of cement, significantly boosting the local market in Tibet [10]. - Infrastructure investment in water management has shown strong growth, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.4% as of June 2025, indicating robust support for economic stability [11]. 3. Price and Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is expected to improve, with a projected profit of 15-20 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 1.1 billion yuan in the previous year [7]. - The average price of cement in the first quarter of 2025 is 397 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.3% due to lower coal prices and rising cement prices [7]. 4. Related Industries - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing challenges due to overcapacity and price competition, leading to a collective 30% production cut by major manufacturers [8]. - The waterproofing industry is also experiencing a collective price increase among leading companies to combat low-price competition and rising costs [9].

晨会纪要（2025/07/28） 债市承压，10Y 国债收益率站上 1.7%——利率债周报 行业研究 集采"反内卷"，关注受益标的——医药生物行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.07.28） 宏观及策略研究 "反内卷"情绪持续发酵——宏观经济周报 固定收益研究 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/07/28） 宏观及策略研究 "反内卷"情绪持续发酵——宏观经济周报 周喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，7 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 初值超预期下行，创 2024 年 12 月以来新低，持续的关税担忧以及上行 的通胀压力严重削弱 ...

2025 年 07 月 28 日 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 PTA：供应压力逐步凸显，基差反套 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7062 | 4936 | 4545 | 6606 | 512.9 | | 涨跌 | 6956 | 86 | 60 | 86 | 4 | | 涨跌幅 | 106 | 1.77% | 1.34% | 1.32% | 0.79% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 112 | 18 | 2 | -8 | 16.5 | | 前日收盘价 | 108 | 26 | -3 | -8 | 18.1 | | 涨跌 | 4 | -8 | 5 | 0 | -1.6 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ ...

观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：供需仍偏紧，滚动正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：供应压力逐步凸显，基差反套 | 2 | | MEG：趋势转弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：短期回调，中期震荡 | 6 | | 沥青：出货续缓，震荡反复 | 8 | | LLDPE：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | PP：现货小涨，成交清淡 | 11 | | 烧碱：关注交割压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡偏弱 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：短期回调，中期震荡 | 16 | | 尿素：短期高位回调 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：强情绪之下的空配 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：化工需求高位，价格相对抗跌 | 22 | | 丙烯：供需短期偏弱 | 22 | | PVC：短期偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油：继续下跌，弱势回归 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：小幅下探，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：逢高布空10，10-12反套持有 | 28 | | 短纤：情绪回落，区间震荡波动放大 | 31 | | ...