Group 1 - The chemical sector continues to rebound, with the Chemical ETF (516020) opening high and experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.79%, closing with a gain of 1.48% [1][7] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which surged by 9.5%, and Tongcheng New Materials, which rose by 4.86%, along with several others exceeding 3% gains [1][7] - The Chemical ETF tracks a specialized index that includes popular stocks in sectors like new energy, which are expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing growth in electric vehicle sales [9][10] Group 2 - According to Zhongyuan Securities, the ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to strengthen supply-side constraints in the industry, benefiting certain sub-sectors such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament [10] - Guohai Securities notes that the anti-involution measures may lead to a revaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, with potential for increased cash flow and dividend yields as capacity expansion slows [10] - The Chemical ETF (516020) is suggested as an efficient way to capitalize on the rebound in the chemical sector, covering themes like AI computing power and new energy [10][11] Group 3 - Recent data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that as of February 5, 2026, there were 335,000 applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy, driving new car sales to 53.77 billion yuan, which supports market development and resource recycling [8][9] - The average price of new cars participating in the trade-in program exceeded 160,000 yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous year, while the number of scrapped vehicles reached 659,000, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [8][9]

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to catalyze the recovery of profit bottoms in the basic chemical and chemical products industry, with a positive outlook for 2026 [1] Industry Summary - The current round of capacity expansion in the basic chemical and chemical products industry is nearing its end, and "anti-involution" measures are anticipated to stimulate a recovery in industry profits [1] - The new materials sector is benefiting from rapid downstream demand growth, which is likely to initiate a new phase of high growth [1] - Traditional chemical leaders are demonstrating operational resilience and are enhancing their competitive capabilities by expanding into new materials and other fields, which may lead to improvements in both performance and valuation amid a recovering industry environment [1] Sub-industry Focus - Continuous catalysts such as "anti-involution" should be monitored in sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, including refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [1] - The rapid development of downstream industries provides significant growth opportunities for companies in the new materials sector [1] ETF Information - The Cathay Chemical ETF (516220) tracks a specific sub-sector index (000813) focused on the chemical industry, covering high-value-added products such as fine chemicals and new materials, and selects relevant listed companies to reflect the overall performance of this sub-sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical turning point entering 2026, transitioning from a valuation recovery phase to a profit-driven new cycle, supported by policy efforts, improved corporate earnings expectations, and increased household savings entering the market [1] Market Outlook - If the "anti-involution" measures yield substantial results, a "slow bull" market is expected in 2026, driven by continuous improvement in corporate profitability, which will support sustainable asset returns and valuations [1] - The target for the CSI 300 index in 2026 is set at 5200 points, with a core logic based on expected earnings growth of 15% year-on-year [3] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include real estate, materials, and information technology (IT). A stronger stabilization signal in real estate, particularly in first-tier cities, could surprise the market positively [2][3] - The materials sector is closely tied to global macroeconomic trends, with a focus on precious metals outside the dollar and important metals related to new energy [4] - The IT sector is viewed with caution due to high current valuations and elevated expectations for Q4 2025, suggesting a need for a correction before new investment opportunities arise [5] Profitability and Investment Strategy - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to create long-term opportunities, particularly in the solar and battery sectors, as companies focus on core business quality and stable pricing [6] - The current profit margins in the Chinese market are the lowest in the Asia-Pacific region, with potential for significant returns if industry concentration improves [7] Consumer Sector Insights - The upcoming Chinese New Year is seen as an important window for observing consumer trends, with a focus on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the food and beverage sector, which is expected to benefit from a shift towards healthier food options [7][8] Foreign Capital Flow - The return of foreign capital is expected to be gradual and structurally differentiated, with passive funds actively participating while active funds remain underweight in China [9] - The low allocation of international funds, particularly those excluding the U.S., is expected to correct as they gain a better understanding of Chinese assets through their experience with similar sectors in the U.S. [9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to perform well in 2026, with a target for the MSCI China index set at 100, indicating significant upside potential [10][11] - The average earnings revision for Hong Kong stocks since May 2025 has approached 40%, marking the best performance since 2020 [11]

Report Title - The report is titled "Futures Strategy Weekly Report" dated February 9, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the past two months, there has been a seesaw effect between non - ferrous metals and anti - involution varieties. When non - ferrous metals undergo technical adjustments, anti - involution varieties rebound. After the profit - making effect of non - ferrous metals weakens, other theme markets need to absorb funds from non - ferrous and precious metals. Driven by national policies, low - valuation varieties may be a key focus after the Spring Festival. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition, and anti - involution is likely to be a theme in 2026 [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The commodity market in the past week was centered around the deep adjustment of non - ferrous and precious metals. In a bear market, negative factors are magnified, and positive factors are ignored. Near the Spring Festival, market volatility may decrease [4] - Gold and silver's recent sharp decline is more of a technical adjustment due to large previous gains and a large number of profit - taking positions [4] - The overall valuation of agricultural products, especially oilseeds and oils, is low. The price of US soybeans is below the cost line, with limited downside. The demand on the feed side lacks strong support, and oils are slightly stronger than soybean meal [4] - The petrochemical sector in 2026 will operate within the anti - involution framework. Although the fundamentals are still poor, the worst is over, and the price downside is limited. The valuation of chemical products has reached the limit [4] - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties. The downside of coal prices is also limited, and supply disturbances may cause coking coal to fluctuate widely. Low - valuation varieties may absorb funds from the non - ferrous sector, and attention should be paid to the progress of anti - involution policies [4] Market Data Tables - The report provides data on the price, inventory, valuation, position, position change, and annualized basis of various commodities, including black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural products [8][10][11] - It also shows the total amount and percentage of capital flow in different sectors such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, energy, chemicals, feed - breeding, oilseeds and oils, and soft commodities [8] Market Data Charts - The report includes charts on the capital flow of black, olefin, polyester, other chemical, energy, oilseed and oil, non - ferrous, and agricultural products [12][14][16][20][22][27][29]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic concept stocks in A-shares experienced a significant surge, driven by two main positive factors: Tesla's increased investment in photovoltaic manufacturing and positive signals in the industry fundamentals, leading to improved market confidence in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares photovoltaic concept stocks collectively surged, with nearly 30 stocks hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% by midday [1]. - The Space Photovoltaic Index rose over 6%, while other indices such as the BC Battery Index and Photovoltaic Glass Index increased by more than 5% [3]. Group 2: Positive Drivers - Tesla is reportedly evaluating multiple sites in the U.S. to expand its solar cell manufacturing capacity, aiming for an annual production capacity of 100 GW over the next three years [3][5]. - The Chinese photovoltaic equipment leaders are expected to meet Tesla and SpaceX's high standards, potentially capturing significant shares of their supply chains [5][8]. Group 3: Industry Fundamentals - Since 2026, leading manufacturers have repeatedly raised component prices, indicating a recovery in the photovoltaic industry after a prolonged downturn [6]. - The "anti-involution" policy and expectations of capacity clearance have enhanced market confidence regarding supply-demand improvements [6]. Group 4: Future Market Potential - The global demand for space photovoltaics is projected to reach 1 GW and a market space of over 80 billion yuan by 2030 under conservative scenarios, with optimistic scenarios suggesting demand could reach 70 GW and nearly 3 trillion yuan [8][9]. - The domestic photovoltaic industry is well-positioned to benefit from increased orders and profit growth as global demand for satellite launches and space photovoltaic technology expands [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [50]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival holiday, lasting 9 days, is expected to significantly boost travel demand, leading to high market activity in the travel and tourism sector [4][43]. - The social service sector experienced a decline of 3.44% in the past two trading weeks, ranking 24th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification [13][21]. - The travel market is anticipated to reach a historical peak with an estimated 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, driven by various factors including extended holiday periods and increased domestic travel [33][38]. Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social service sector's performance was below the market average, with a 3.44% decline compared to a 1.71% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][21]. - The hotel and catering sub-sector saw a slight increase of 0.64%, while other sub-sectors like education and professional services experienced declines of 6.26% and 5.25%, respectively [17][20]. Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong growth potential in the travel chain and related industries include Tongcheng Travel, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Shares, among others [4][43]. - Hotel brands such as Jinjiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel and increased market share [4][43]. - The recovery of cross-border travel is likely to boost airport duty-free sales, with recommendations to focus on China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [4][43]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - Notable company announcements include China Travel Service forecasting a revenue of 11.339 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a 13.88% year-on-year increase, while other companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Fengshang Culture are expecting significant declines in net profits [37][38]. - The duty-free shopping market in Hainan saw a 44.8% year-on-year increase in January 2026, indicating a strong recovery in consumer spending [30][31]. Travel Data Tracking - The domestic travel market shows positive trends, with a significant increase in hotel bookings and flight reservations during the Spring Festival period [30][31]. - The international flight volume has recovered to 85.59% of the 2019 levels, indicating a steady recovery in the travel sector [21][38].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) is experiencing active trading, with a midday increase of 0.56% and a transaction volume of 72.7371 million yuan. The market sentiment is shifting towards domestic demand-driven policies as expectations for overseas financial tightening show marginal improvement [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Guotai Junan indicates that after panic selling, the Chinese stock market has reached a critical position, suggesting that investors should hold stocks through the holiday [1] - Galaxy Securities recommends a "light position holding through the holiday" as a prudent strategy that aligns with historical trends, helping to avoid volatility risks from market adjustments while retaining opportunities for participation in the post-holiday spring market [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery is driving the "anti-involution" concept, with dividend assets showing a clear investment logic due to their safety margins in valuation [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its off-market connections (022719/022720) provide investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, balancing stable returns with long-term value [1]

| | | | | | | | | Hart Ave EN | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/09 | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | | | | | | | 6000 | | | 400 | | | (元/吨) | | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival, with a focus on individual stock plays and structural rotations, suggesting that opportunities will arise from quick stock trading and sector rotations rather than a clear trend [1][13][14] - The market is expected to exhibit a "seek stability before the festival, rebound after" rhythm, with defensive sectors like consumption and dividend stocks likely to attract attention before the holiday, while post-holiday focus may shift to small-cap growth stocks and sectors with clear industrial catalysts [1][13][14] Market Overview - Last Friday, the three major indices in the A-share market opened lower but rebounded to close in the green during the morning session, only to fall back in the afternoon, continuing the recent adjustment trend [4][5] - The chemical, battery, and mining sectors showed strength, while consumer and AI-related stocks experienced a collective pullback, indicating a structural rotation in the market [1][4][13] Sector Performance - The report highlights that cyclical sectors like chemicals and energy metals have been active, driven by ongoing domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and improving economic supply-demand dynamics [7][8] - The new energy sector, particularly battery and photovoltaic stocks, has shown resilience, supported by global trends towards carbon neutrality and domestic policy reforms aimed at reducing competition in these fields [8][9] - Consumer stocks have also been active, with government policies aimed at stimulating consumption creating structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors catering to demographic trends and service consumption upgrades [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to balance stability and flexibility in their strategies, focusing on consumption and dividend stocks before the festival while preparing for potential growth opportunities post-festival [2][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing in the current volatile market, suggesting that investors should be ready to adapt to changing market rhythms [2][14]