Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $3800 per ounce and reaching a historical high, is driven by multiple factors including expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and rising geopolitical uncertainties [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices first exceeded $3800 per ounce, reaching $3805.979, marking a 1.26% increase, with an intraday high of $3819.81 [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw significant gains, closing at $3845.5 per ounce, up 0.96%, with a peak of $3849 [1][3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts following the August PCE inflation data, which aligns with market predictions [4]. 2. A weakening dollar and trends towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [4]. 3. Heightened political uncertainty due to the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward trend," with core drivers influencing market dynamics [5]. - The fundamental support for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies recommend that new investors consider entering the market during price corrections, while existing holders should maintain their positions [7]. - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious and rational approach, avoiding impulsive high purchases and instead waiting for reasonable price levels for gradual entry [7].

Core Viewpoint - Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policy changes, global central bank gold purchasing trends, and geopolitical developments to flexibly adjust asset allocation strategies based on the evolution of core variables [1]. Gold Price Movement - On September 29, spot gold prices surpassed $3,800 per ounce for the first time, reaching a record high of $3,805.979 per ounce, with an intraday increase of 1.26% and a peak of $3,819.81 per ounce [1]. - COMEX gold futures also experienced significant gains, rising by 0.96% to $3,845.5 per ounce, with an intraday high of $3,849 per ounce [1]. Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Increased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, supported by August's PCE inflation data, which aligns with the possibility of a rate cut in October, thereby reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [5]. 2. A weakening U.S. dollar, coupled with a trend towards "de-dollarization," providing additional support for gold prices [5]. 3. Rising risks of a U.S. government shutdown, increasing political uncertainty and enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold suggests a likely "short-term high-level fluctuation and a medium to long-term upward adjustment" in price levels, with core drivers determining the market rhythm [6]. - The fundamental logic supporting gold price increases remains intact, including slowing U.S. economic growth, a cooling labor market, and a low-interest-rate environment that continues to lower the cost of holding gold [6][7]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors who have not yet entered the market consider buying on dips, while those with existing positions should hold firmly [8]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a "prudent first, rational layout" approach, avoiding blind chasing of high prices and waiting for reasonable market corrections before gradually entering [8]. - Gold should be viewed as a strategic component of asset allocation, serving to hedge risks and balance volatility, with allocation ratios tailored to individual risk tolerance [8].

截至上周五(9月26日)，伦敦现货黄金报收3,758.78美元/盎司，上周累计上涨74.13美元/盎司，涨幅 2.01%。上周金价突破上行并创新高。金价最高上行至3,791.08美元/盎司，最低下探至3,683.28美元/盎 司。 回顾上周以来海外主要市场动态：第一次降息已经落地，本周美联储官员表态出现分歧、但整体偏鸽， 后续降息预期仍然存在；此外，地缘政治风险扩大、美国政府短期面临停摆风险等因素，有望驱动金价 上行. 中长期美联储开启降息周期+海外宏观政策不确定性加剧+全球"去美元化"趋势对金价依然构成利好， 可持续关注，或可考虑逢低分批布局黄金基金ETF(518800)。关注本周美国9月失业率、美国9月非农就 业报告。 周度回顾： (1)海外经济 经济数据上，9月美国Markit制造业PMI初值降至52，略低于预期的52.2；服务业PMI为53.9，略低于预 期的54；综合PMI初值为53.6，位于偏高水平。美国二季度GDP第二次修正值进一步上修0.5pp至3.8%， 其中消费上修0.9pp至2.5%，投资上修1.1pp至4.4%，消费+投资增速达2.9%，显示上半年美国经济韧性 强于此前预期。8月核心P ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the U.S. government regarding a new round of tariffs, particularly targeting imports from China and the EU, while reducing tariffs on Japanese automobiles, highlights a selective enforcement strategy that intertwines economic measures with political considerations [1][5][21]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Details - The U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 100% on various imported goods, including heavy trucks, home goods, and pharmaceuticals [1]. - Key targets for these tariffs include electric vehicles, heavy machinery, and electronic components from China, with tax rates doubling or even exceeding previous levels [3]. - The tariff on Japanese automobiles has been reduced from 25% to 15%, reflecting political motivations rather than economic logic [5]. Group 2: Global Trade Reactions - The new tariff measures have escalated tensions in global trade, prompting countries to reassess their economic relationships with the U.S. [3]. - China has responded with countermeasures, increasing import tariffs on U.S. goods and implementing restrictions on key resource exports [10]. - The EU has initiated a counter-response against U.S. products worth billions of euros and resumed negotiations on liquefied natural gas procurement [12]. Group 3: Political Implications - The selective nature of the tariff policy has drawn criticism domestically and internationally, with concerns that it undermines the global competitiveness of U.S. companies [7]. - The tariffs are seen as a political strategy aimed at swing states in the Midwest, where manufacturing jobs are concentrated [7]. - Japan's government has distanced itself from U.S. policies, emphasizing the importance of avoiding trade friction due to its reliance on Asian supply chains [16]. Group 4: Broader Economic Trends - The current trade tensions reflect a shift in global economic dynamics, with non-U.S. economies seeking to strengthen cooperation and reduce dependence on the U.S. market [18][21]. - Countries are exploring new trade networks outside of U.S. influence, with China and the EU moving towards trade agreements with Southeast Asia, South America, and India [17]. - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining traction, as countries pursue mechanisms to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar for trade [19].

今日A股全天震荡走强，三大指数集体上涨。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿。截至收盘，沪指涨0.90%，深 成指涨2.05%，创业板指涨2.74%。个股层面上，全市场超3500只个股上涨，呈现普涨行情，赚钱效应 好。从板块来看，券商板块集体爆发，新能源板块继续走强，有色金属板块全天走高，此外半导体产业 链午后回暖。大盘在经历了一段时期的高位震荡后，今日的普涨行情有助于提振市场情绪和风险偏好。 发改委今日表示将适时加力实施宏观政策，当前全市场成交量依然活跃，叠加国内政策加码，经济复苏 预期，中长期看A股整体上行趋势有望延续。 新能车ETF（159806）今日上涨4.42%。 消息面上，固态电池再迎政策利好。八部门《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》提出加 快全固态电池材料等高端产品应用验证。工信部发布《电子信息制造业2025—2026年稳增长行动方 案》，支持全固态电池等前沿技术方向基础研究。固态电池国内外产业化加速，设备端将率先受益。 需求方面，国内进入传统旺季。根据国盛证券，储能方面，上半年全球储能电芯出货226GWh （+97%），国内订单超160GWh（+220%）。目前国内储能电芯的需求十分 ...

1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 114.190 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 107.680 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.540 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.342 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，9 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1658 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1658 亿元，中标量 1658 亿元。同时， 以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了 6000 亿元 14 天期逆回购操作。Wind 数据显示，当日 3543 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 4115 亿元。 央行货币政策委员会召开 2025 年第三季度例会。会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要 思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融 形势和金融市场运行情况， ...

而在肯尼亚，矿主奥马里向深圳采购一台7000美元的锂矿设备，需先将280万肯尼亚先令兑换为美 元（汇兑损失1.2%），再经纽约梅隆银行代理转账（耗时3天，手续费45美元）。最终因汇率波动，实 际多支付200多美元。 这两笔支付的强烈反差，揭示了全球金融治理的"百年变局"：金融强国的标准，已从"谁掌握主权 货币"转向"谁能提供更安全、低成本、普惠的跨境支付方案"。 2025年9月27日清晨，两笔跨越半球的支付同时发生： 在杭州，来自泰国的留学生阿珍用数字人民币App支付7元购买珍珠奶茶。后台依托"多边央行数字 货币桥"，31.28泰铢直接兑换为人民币，全程耗时4.2秒、手续费为0，未经过SWIFT（国际资金清算系 统）和美元中转。 这场"去美元化"暖流中，争议不断：美国彼得森研究所称"人民币缺乏完全可兑换性与深度离岸市 场"；而巴西央行指出，人民币已助其年省15亿美元汇兑成本。 中国能否将这股"暖流"转化为未来的主流？关键在于用好"五把钥匙"；而每把钥匙的背后，都有数 据支撑、现实可行的破局路径。 钥匙一：贸易场景"双向奔赴"——把每笔订单变成人民币需求 核心逻辑：不追求全球替代，优先实现区域主导，通过"便利化 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a new high, breaking through $3800 per ounce, with a peak of $3819.80 per ounce on September 29 [1][4] - The price of 24K gold (千足金) has risen to over 1100 yuan per gram, with some brands planning to increase prices by approximately 30% in October [2][3] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and rising global demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Group 2 - Major jewelry brands are experiencing a surge in customer traffic as the traditional sales season approaches, leading to promotional activities to attract consumers [2] - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, with forecasts suggesting an average of $3800 per ounce in Q4 2023 and potential increases to $4000 per ounce by mid-2026 [7] - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold and geopolitical risks are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the supply-demand reversal is expected to lead to an upward shift in copper prices, with a long-term price target above $10,500 per ton [6] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold rising by 1.89% and silver by 6.92% in the recent week [5] - The report highlights that cobalt prices are likely to maintain an upward trend due to the implementation of export policies in the Democratic Republic of Congo [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 6752.28, with a weekly high of 6795.38 and a low of 4280.14 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw LME copper increase by 2.09%, while aluminum decreased by 1.01% and zinc by 0.41% [20] - Precious metals experienced significant gains, with COMEX gold up by 1.89% and silver up by 6.92% [20] - Lithium carbonate prices saw a slight increase of 0.14% [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 3,021 tons, aluminum by 4,929 tons, and zinc by 8 tons [36][38] - Nickel inventory increased by 990 tons [38] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining for potential investment opportunities [9]

It is turning into gold’s best year in decades. Bullion has hit a series of record highs in 2025, putting it firmly on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, when revolution in Tehran rocked the global economy.Why is gold in such demand?The short answer is that gold is acting as a haven and a store of value, a role it’s played for thousands of years, since the kingdom of Lydia started churning out gold coins in the sixth century BC. Investors can be a jumpy lot, and there are plenty of reaso ...