Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical maneuvering surrounding Venezuela's oil exports has led to a significant shift in the dynamics of international energy trade, particularly between the U.S. and China, highlighting the limitations of U.S. power in dictating terms to other nations [1][4][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Strategy - The Trump administration's abrupt takeover of Venezuela's oil exports and the imposition of stringent conditions on China reflect a strategy of exerting dominance over global oil markets [1][4]. - The U.S. proposed that oil prices be set at $45 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous $30, and mandated that all transactions be conducted through U.S.-designated accounts [1][4]. - The U.S. miscalculated China's reliance on Venezuelan oil, overestimating its importance while underestimating China's diversified energy sourcing strategy [4][5]. Group 2: China's Response - China responded decisively by halting all oil purchases from Venezuela, signaling a firm stance against U.S. pressure and maintaining its principles of equal cooperation [3][8]. - The Chinese government issued clear directives to stop all transactions related to Venezuelan oil, effectively closing the door on imports from that source [3][8]. - China's strategic approach emphasizes maintaining its sovereignty and the integrity of international trade agreements, rejecting unilateral changes imposed by the U.S. [8][10]. Group 3: Market Implications - The halt in Chinese imports has left Venezuelan oil in a precarious position, with limited buyers and a surplus of unsold oil, indicating a significant market disruption [7][10]. - The U.S. has had to reconsider its approach, with Trump suggesting that China could negotiate a favorable deal, reflecting a shift in the U.S. stance due to the failure of its initial strategy [7][10]. - The evolving energy landscape shows a trend towards diversification and a move away from reliance on any single source, as evidenced by China's reduced dependence on Venezuelan oil, which accounts for less than 3% of its total imports [4][5].

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 大宗商品行情热度居高不下 ， 尤以贵金属为代表的有色板块走出超预期上涨行情 。 这一轮行情固然有价格自身推动的因素 ， 但更核心的是市 场对长期全球发展的各类担忧 ， 集中反映在了大宗商品的定价中 ， 黄金 、 白银 、 铜这类品种尤为明显 ， 背后是投资者对未来地缘政治等诸 多投资不确定性的集体预判 。 股票市场大宗商品相关板块同样走势火热 ， 而这样的行情表现 ， 与过去几轮典型的大宗商品上行周期有着本质 区别 ， 但凡长期跟踪全球商品与大类资产的走势 ， 都能清晰感受到这一轮行情的独特性 。 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 与典型牛市相比 ， 当下全球经济的基本面现状 ， 与大宗商品市场的火热表现形成了鲜明的背离 ， 这也是非典型性的核心体现之一 。 从全球经 济复苏动力来看 ， 当前整体复苏节奏偏弱 ， 远不及商品市场所反映的乐观状态 。 无论是全球PMI数据 、 全球M2投放数据 ， ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continued to fluctuate, with London spot gold closing at $4,967 per ounce (up 1.8% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 1,094 yuan per gram (down 6.9% week-on-week) [1] - Japan's fiscal expansion trend is expected to continue, potentially exacerbating its debt burden, as the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida secured a significant majority in the recent House of Representatives election, allowing for more aggressive fiscal policies [1] - The market is gradually digesting the expectations of a "hawkish" stance from the newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, while recognizing the potential for a "dovish" outcome in the long term due to political and fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - Upcoming U.S. inflation and employment data are crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with the January non-farm payroll report delayed to February 11 and CPI data to February 13 [2] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, maintaining a steady accumulation pace, with reserves expected to reach 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, reflecting a trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves amid the weakening dollar credit system [2] - The macro structural factors supporting gold remain intact, including ongoing central bank demand for gold amid de-dollarization, the erosion of the dollar's long-term credibility due to "fiscal dominance" policies, and systemic risks from a fragmented global geopolitical landscape [3] Group 3 - Key signals for gold investment in the coming week include the U.S. January employment data and CPI [4] - Related investment products include gold ETFs and various colored metal ETFs [5]

第一金杨生，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 今日伦敦金在剧烈震荡后重新站上5000美元/盎司大关，市场正处在重大宏观数据公布前、地缘局势不明与节前资金流动共同作用的高波动震荡 期，方向尚不明朗。 综合分析 金价在收复5000美元心理关口后，短期结构有所转强，但技术指标显示上涨动能减弱，存在回踩确认需求。 1.多空交织的因素 近期美国ADP就业、JOLTS职位空缺等数据显现劳动力市场降温迹象，叠加美联储鸽派官员的降息言论，巩固了市场宽松预期，为金价提供支 撑。 被提名的下任美联储主席沃什的潜在政策倾向仍是市场心头的疑虑，尽管其实际影响可能有限，但不确定性仍会扰动市场。此外，芝商所 （CME）近期再度上调期货保证金，旨在为市场降温，可能抑制短期投机。 2. 反复不定的地缘政治风险 海湾地区局势持续紧张，美伊在阿曼的谈判并未达成有效共识，未来冲突可能性仍然存在。这种"担忧缓解但未消除"的状态，为黄金提供了脉 冲式的避险支撑，也增加了行情预判的难度。 3. 关键数据与节日流动性影响 本周市场将迎来美国CPI与非农就业数据的发布，预计将引发显著波动。同时，恰逢中国春节长假前最后交易周，部分资金或有退潮迹 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 企稳可多配 | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | ★ | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 白银多空交易拥挤博弈尚没有结束。尽管长期理由仍然存在供需缺口连续 5 年，全 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀预期走低，经过调整之后，盘面情绪有所修复。继续关注市场交易情绪调 | | --- | --- | --- | | ★ | 企稳可多配 | 整情况。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配 | | | | 置价值不变。关注调整幅度。 | | 白银 | 不宜参与 | 球大财政均对白银长期有利，但是短期市场会继续调整，保持关注，短期参与难度 | | ★★ | | 大，风险报酬比不合适。 | | | | 春节长假临近，市场 ...

编者按: 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济与A股走向备受瞩目。 多地把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%-5.5%，机构预测中值为4.8%，经济稳中向好态势明确。在一系列政策发力见效背景下，中国的投资有 望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲，物价水平或延续温和回暖的势头。 货币政策将继续保持宽松基调，同时在去美元化趋势不断加强的国际背景下，人民币汇率有望继续稳中走强，为A股高质量"慢牛""长牛"格局 奠定了坚实基础。 廖宗魁/文 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，中国经济能否延续2024年下半年以来的持续复苏势头，A股能否连续三年走牛，全球经济和国际市场又会如 何演进，成为当下投资者较为关心的问题。 从已经召开的地方两会看，绝大多数省份把2026年经济增长目标设定在4.5%—5.5%，意味着即将召开的全国两会很可能把2026年全国经济增 长目标定在5%左右。《证券市场周刊》"远见杯"宏观经济预测调查（以下简称"预测调查"）显示，机构们对2026年中国GDP增长预测中值为 4.8%，经济稳中向好的态势延续。 在一系列政策发力见效的背景下，中国的投资有望企稳，消费则稳步回升，出口继续保持韧劲， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy needs strengthening. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up significantly, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. With the Spring Festival approaching, risk control should be emphasized, and positions can be appropriately reduced [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, precious metals have risen significantly recently, and speculative sentiment has increased significantly. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the medium term, the price of finished steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and rebar demand is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, the market has entered the off - season of demand, and the progress of winter storage needs to be monitored. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, rebar weekly output has increased, and supply pressure has increased. Currently, rebar inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation process around the Spring Festival has begun. Overall, rebar prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are not significantly different from those of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue the weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Iron Ore**: From an industrial perspective, the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore demand is at a low level. On the supply side, in 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, current major coal - producing areas maintain normal production rhythms, and domestic coking coal production is stable. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, future supply will decline, and coal mine shipment pressure is small. On the demand side, downstream coking enterprises purchase on demand, and intermediate - link purchasing attitudes have become more cautious. For coke, the first - round increase in the spot purchase price has been officially implemented. Coke supply remains stable; the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and coke demand is weak, putting pressure on coke prices. Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Since 2026, ferroalloy production has remained at a low level, demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. Currently, the downward space for costs at a low level is limited, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening, and manganese ore inventory is at a low level. In the short term, supply may continue to shrink. Under the conditions of low and rigid costs, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range after a pullback [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran has encountered difficulties, and geopolitical contradictions are beneficial to crude oil prices. CFTC data shows that funds are still bullish on crude oil prices. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue [23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, which is beneficial to fuel oil prices. The rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the rebound of fuel oil prices. There is still room for fuel oil to rise [26]. - **Polyolefins**: In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually entering the holiday stage, and market demand will be significantly reduced. On the supply side, some suppliers who have not yet taken holidays still maintain active shipment operations [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [31]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to show an oscillation trend. Due to macro black - swan events this week, gold and silver have plummeted, and the sentiment has spread to the rubber sector, causing prices to follow the overall correction of commodities. It is mainly necessary to control positions before the festival [32]. - **PVC**: The key to price trends and inventory reduction speed lies in the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival. If the downstream resumes work quickly and the demand for infrastructure and other projects can be effectively activated, the inventory pressure is expected to be gradually relieved. On the supply side, the PVC industry operating rate remains at a high level. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of downstream pipe and profile enterprises have significantly declined, and the willingness to stock up has weakened. At the cost - profit end, external - purchased calcium - carbide - method enterprises are still in deep losses, and the profits of chlor - alkali integration are also not good, and the cost end supports the price. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [34]. - **Urea**: It is expected to show an oscillation - and - upward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of Indian tenders, domestic policy news, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [36]. - **PX**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. In the short term, PX may mainly oscillate and adjust. It is necessary to participate cautiously, be vigilant against the risk of external - market crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [37]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, and the room for further upward movement may be limited. PTA inventory remains at a low level. Recently, there have been few changes on the supply side, the demand side has entered the holiday mode for the Spring Festival, and the cost - end support is limited. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from January to February. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil changes, it is mainly necessary to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The content is the same as that of PTA, with the same analysis and suggestions [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: As the Spring Festival approaches, short - fiber supply shrinks, terminal - factory stocking decreases, and loom load drops to a low point. However, the low inventory of short - fiber may provide bottom support. In the short term, short - fiber still trades based on the cost - end logic. The cost support weakens, and it may follow the raw - material price. It is mainly necessary to observe cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [42]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but its main logic still lies in the cost end. It is expected that bottle - chips will mainly follow the cost - end operation in the future. It is necessary to participate cautiously before the festival, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals continue to be loose. The output has decreased slightly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream glass manufacturers still mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The device operation is stable, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals show off - season characteristics, are occasionally affected by the intraday sentiment of the energy sector, lack substantial support, and should still be treated with caution [44]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. The number of production lines in operation has decreased, factory - and trader - inventories have increased. The market is mainly in a loose tone. The inventory of manufacturers is concentrated and transferred to trader inventory, and it is expected that there will still be pressure for the release of market goods after the festival. In the short term, it is driven by the energy sector, showing a slight oscillation - and - upward trend, but the sustainability is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply remains at a high level. Inventory has decreased slightly due to the shipment of delivery warrants, but the absolute value is still at a high level in the same period of history. Before the festival, downstream purchases on demand, and the willingness to accept high - price caustic soda is small. The 02 contract is about to end trading, and the other contracts return to the fundamental logic. It has significant seasonal characteristics - high output, low demand, and high inventory. Recently, the energy sector has oscillated a lot, the cost expectation has increased, and the disk game has intensified. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not significantly improved, it should be treated with caution [48]. - **Pulp**: Inventory continues to accumulate. Domestic supply has also slightly increased. Downstream performance is divided. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption of household paper is slightly better, while other cultural and packaging paper categories are sluggish. The overall market operation is inactive, and the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market is general. The continuous accumulation of port inventory intensifies the expectation of supply relaxation; the terminal demand is temporarily stagnant, and the market lacks a trading basis; the demand for capital repatriation before the festival causes some holders to sell at a discount. The overall support is weak, and it is expected that the pre - festival disk will have limited fluctuations [50]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fallen back, and the fundamentals show that the resumption time of mines in Jiangxi, China, is still uncertain, and the mine end may be in a tight - balance state. From the perspective of lithium - salt supply, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continues to decline. On the consumption side, as the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is almost over. The energy - storage sector performs prominently, the production schedules of leading energy - storage battery enterprises remain high, and the demand for power batteries has also improved. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually being reduced, and the current inventory has left the absolute high level. The short - term supply - demand mismatch provides short - term support for the price. Coupled with the frequent external geopolitical conflicts, the importance of strategic minerals is highlighted, and the market is constantly worried about the external stable supply and liquidity of lithium resources. The support for lithium carbonate is still strong, but the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control should be noted [52]. - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the nomination of the Fed chairman has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the re - evaluation of global capital; the risk preference in the capital market has cooled, weakening the enthusiasm for commodity allocation; the US ADP data is lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week is higher than expected and the previous value. Attention should be paid to the non - farm data. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, terminal and processing enterprises have mostly completed pre - festival stocking, and the spot - market trading has become dull. The smelting end has few maintenance plans, and with the supplement of scrap for production, the output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the global visible inventory of electrolytic copper continues to rise, but the actual available quantity is relatively limited. Market sentiment has declined, and coupled with the weakening of fundamentals, copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival [53]. - **Aluminum**: The cost support of alumina is not strong, the operating capacity has decreased month - on - month, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and production enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival. The inventory - accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. Although the global visible inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the absolute value is still low. Alumina is still regarded as bearish. If the output decline is significant in the near future, the price may be temporarily strong. This month, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are bearish, so as speculative funds leave the market, aluminum prices may be under pressure [56]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply (domestic zinc + imported zinc) has tightened month - on - month, and the demand - side operating rate will also reach the annual low. The traditional seasonal inventory - accumulation period is late, indicating that there is a certain resilience on the demand side. As market sentiment cools and zinc - ingot inventory accumulates, zinc prices will enter an adjustment period [58]. - **Lead**: Although the supply side is structurally tightened, most primary - lead enterprises and some secondary - lead enterprises will maintain production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the supply will be loose after the festival. The demand side shows a dull performance. Even if the lead price drops, the spot - market trading remains weak. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of primary lead steadily accumulates. Secondary lead still has cost support, but under the influence of the supply - demand structural contradiction, the support may gradually weaken [60]. - **Tin**: The military conflict in the DRC continues, and there are still concerns about the stable production of the mine end. However, the recent repair of the weak US dollar has led to a decline in asset - equity prices. Fundamentally, the explosive approval in Wa State has been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent output will increase. Currently, the domestic processing fee has recovered, and the refined - tin output has stabilized. In terms of imports, the refined - tin imports from Indonesia have resumed, and the tight supply pattern has been alleviated. On the demand side, the tin downstream consumption market presents a complex picture of "pressure in traditional fields and support from emerging fields". Although the overall demand has not shown a strong rebound, it still shows a certain resilience under the structural support of artificial intelligence and new - energy fields. Under the tight supply - demand situation, the visible inventory of refined tin is further reduced, and there is support for the tin price. However, the uncertainty of US policies is relatively large, which affects trading sentiment, and the short - term volatility may increase. Risk control should be noted [62]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's nickel - ore quota plan for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2.6 billion tons, still lower than last year's quota. The nickel production - cost center is expected to rise, and the policy risk in Indonesia has increased. Fundamentally, the nickel - ore price has stabilized. Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mines, and coupled with the rainy season in the Philippines, subsequent nickel - ore production and mining activities may be affected, and there is support for the ore price. In addition, the pressure from stainless steel is transmitted upwards, the losses of downstream nickel - iron plants have increased, and some high - cost nickel - iron plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. Stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off - season, and is still restricted by the weak terminal real - estate consumption. Coupled with the still - sluggish nickel - iron trading, steel mills have a strong psychology of pressing prices, and the real - world consumption is still hard to be optimistic about. There is relatively large upward pressure. The spot trading of refined nickel has weakened, and the domestic inventory is generally stable but still at a relatively high level. Overall, primary nickel is still in an over - supply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies in the future [63]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The Malaysian palm oil has recorded a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks, affected by the weak prices of edible oils in the competing Chicago and Dalian markets. The market expects that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decline. Domestically, China's palm - oil imports in December decreased. Palm - oil inventory is in the middle level of the same period in the past seven years. The catering industry shows certain growth. It may be possible to consider long positions after a pullback [65]. - **Palm Oil**: Canadian rapeseed has stopped rising for three days. Canada's rapeseed inventory has increased year - on - year. The US has issued relevant guidance on clean - fuel production tax credits. China has agreed to reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. China's rapeseed, rapeseed - oil, and rapeseed - meal imports have shown certain changes. China's rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in a relatively high or middle level of the same period in the past seven years. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean meal has risen slightly, and the price of soybean oil has fallen. The overnight US soybean has risen slightly. The soybean - crushing volume of major oil mills has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has increased slightly

2 200 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2026/2/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2602 | | AG2602 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 银15点价 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 格跟踪 | 2026/2/6 | 4840. 01 | 72. 06 | 4859. 70 | 71.77 | 1092. 72 | | 17944. 00 | 1086. 04 | 17890.00 | | (本表数 | | | ...

[赞]全球支付市场，表面风平浪静，实则暗流汹涌，最新数据显示，美元虽仍是老大，占比46.94%，但 已有松动迹象。 欧元稳中有升，回到25.6%的份额，而人民币却在SWIFT系统中连续4个月跌破3%，8月仅录得2.93%。 一时间，有人担忧人民币国际化是否受阻，也有人质疑数据背后的真相，而实际上，这场货币格局的变 迁远比数字复杂。 美霸权依旧 美元至今仍是全球支付体系中无可争议的第一货币，接近一半的份额让它牢牢掌握着话语权。 然而，近年来这一基础正在受到侵蚀，美国频繁将SWIFT系统武器化，动辄将不顺从的国家踢出系统， 导致诸多经济体开始寻求替代方案。 此外，美元汇率波动加剧，2025年上半年显著贬值，让贸易伙伴们不得不重新考量结算货币的选择。 更关键的是，全球经济格局正从单极向多极演变，新兴市场崛起，区域贸易协定增多，许多国家开始尝 试本币结算或区域货币合作。 美元虽然仍是避险首选，但那种"唯我独尊"的绝对优势，正在被一点点稀释。 欧元滑落 但细看趋势，其地位并非铁板一块。今年8月，美元支付占比为46.94%，相比数月前接近50%的高点已 有回落。尤其在过去五个月，美元份额下降2.74个百分点，虽幅度不大， ...