期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 10 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡走强 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...

6月10日，A股早盘窄幅震荡，截至9:37，沪指涨0.08%，深成指跌0.11%，创业板指跌0.13%。 盘面上，以创新药为首的医药股继续活跃，众生药业、昂利康涨停；足球概念持续火热，共创草坪7连板。下跌方面，军工、半导体、贵金属、消费电子等 板块跌幅居前。 天风证券认为，6月以稳应变，防守反击。根据经济复苏与市场流动性，可以把投资主线降维为三个方向：Deepseek突破与开源引领的科技AI+，消费股的 估值修复和消费分层逐步复苏，低估红利继续崛起。红利回撤常在有强势产业趋势出现的时候，因此低估红利的高度取决于AI产业趋势的进展，而AI产业 趋势的进展又取决于AI应用端和消费端的突破。消费板块投资的核心因子是估值，在当前消费板块低估值、利率下行、政策催化下复苏周期抬头(哪怕是很 弱的斜率)，以宏观叙事而对消费过分悲观反而是一种风险，重视恒生互联网。 2、中金公司：下半年市场波动率或前低后高 指数有望前稳后升 焦点个股方面，换股吸收合并预案出炉，中科曙光复牌一字涨停，封单金额超168亿元，海光信息大涨超8%。消息面上，6月9日晚间，海光信息和中科曙光 双双公告披露换股吸收合并预案。海光信息拟以0.5525：1的 ...

Group 1: Price Performance Characteristics - In May, the overall CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%[6] - Consumer goods prices fell by 0.5% year-on-year for four consecutive months, while service prices rose by 0.5%, marking three months of positive growth[8] - Agricultural and energy prices declined, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline[14] Group 2: Future Price Trends - Negative price growth is expected to persist until the end of Q3, primarily due to ongoing downward pressure on pork prices[20] - Current consumption policies have limited impact on prices, which may be offset by fluctuations in energy prices[21] - The overall CPI is unlikely to follow core inflation upward unless the downward pressures on agricultural and energy prices are alleviated[22] Group 3: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are significant risk factors that could affect future price trends[25]

点击小程序查看报告原文 摘要 Abstract 随着金融周期调整趋缓，房地产对中国经济的拖累逐步收窄，同时"两新"加力叠加基建提速，过去两个季度GDP同比增速均达5.4%，但物价持续偏弱。 总体CPI因为猪价拖累接近于零增长，核心CPI也低于我们半年前的预测。以旧换新品类的销量同比增速接近10%，但价格却继续下行，量价分化加剧。虽 然物价改善往往慢于经济增长，但目前尚没有信号显示短期内通胀将显著提升。在实际增速持续低于潜在增速的背景下，需求缺口未收敛是量价背离的重 要原因。但总量层面之外，经济结构调整对劳动市场、居民收入、消费和物价的影响也不容忽视。 伴随金融周期下行的是经济结构优化，技术进步提速 。 与2021年一季度相比，今年一季度信息传播、软件和信息技术服务业、电气机械和器材制造业等 增加值占比上升，上市公司员工人数也呈现类似特征。融资方面，今年一季度传统行业上市公司净筹资现金流继续下降，而非传统行业净筹资现金流降幅 则开始收窄。科技方面，中国经济复杂度[1]稳步上升，与美国排名的差距逐步缩小。中国制造业国产化率提速，比如，今年一季度进口金额同比降幅 6%，我们的估算显示，其中需求减弱、经济结构变化和国 ...

世界银行近期发布的数据显示，2024年斯里兰卡国内生产总值（GDP）增速超预期，达到5%。今年一 季度，得益于支柱产业出口增长、旅游业反弹以及重要侨汇收入增加等积极因素影响，斯里兰卡经济复 苏态势延续。南亚岛国斯里兰卡曾在2022年经历了严重的经济危机，导致国民经济连续6个季度萎缩， 直到2023年底才有所起色，2024年开始呈现强劲复苏态势。 经济改革和财政状况的不确定性是当前斯里兰卡经济面临的最大内部风险。世界银行指出，当前斯里兰 卡家庭收入、就业水平及整体福利状况仍远低于经济危机前水平，劳动力市场持续疲弱，失业率居高不 下，贫困率超过20%。要在中期实现持续增长和减少贫困目标，需要保持宏观经济稳定，并推进结构性 改革。亚洲开发银行预计，到2032年斯里兰卡公共债务占GDP的比重才会降至95%以下。随着需求复 苏、信贷条件改善、电价预期上调、进口限制放宽，当前通胀紧缩的情况会逐步改善，预计到2026年， 通胀率有望回升至4.5%，但仍低于斯里兰卡央行设定的5%的目标。世界银行预计，斯里兰卡2025年经 济增速为3.5%；亚洲开发银行预计，斯里兰卡今、明两年经济将分别保持3.9%和3.4%的温和增长。 分析 ...

据中国工程机械工业协会对装载机主要制造企业统计，2025年5月销售各类装载机10535台，同比增长7.24%。其中国内销量6037台，同比增长16.7%；出口量4498 台，同比下降3.31%。 2025年1—5月，共销售各类装载机52755台，同比增长14.1%。其中国内销量29607台，同比增长25.4%；出口量23148台，同比增长2.39%。 | | | | | | | 2025年中国电动装载机市场情况 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 月份 | < 3吨 | 3 吨 | 4吨 | 5 吨 | 6吨 | 7吨 | 8吨 | ＞8吨 | 滑移装载机 | 总计 | | 2025-05 | 24 | 83 | 3 | 1756 | 798 | વેર | ব | 1 | 1 | 2 765 | | 2025-04 | 28 | 121 | - | 1849 | 847 | 66 | 4 | - | g | 2 924 | | 2025-03 | 23 | 56 | - | 1876 ...

食品饮料周报（25 年第 23 周） 优于大市 白酒淡季需求延续压力，啤酒、饮料进入需求旺季 本周（2025 年 6 月 2 日至 2025 年 6 月 6 日）本周食品饮料板块下跌 0.65%， 跑输上证指数 1.78pct。本周食品饮料板块涨幅前五分别为均瑶健康 (24.43%)、青海春天(15.38%)、万辰集团(14.58%)、华宝股份(10.98%)和妙 可蓝多(10.11%)。 证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 白酒：淡季需求延续压力，高端白酒价格略有下降。贵州茅台 6 月 4 日公告 截至 5 月，公司累计回购股份 331.1 万股，占总股本 0.26%，已支付总金额 51 亿元（不含交易费用）；6 月 4 日在日本大阪世博会期间发布"走进希腊、 意大利、英国、法国、日本"五个新品共十款，并在"i 茅台"平台销售； 公司系统性布局国际化，结合品牌、文化实现产品出海。泸州老窖 6 月 4 日 公告将于 6 月 27 日召开股东大会，披露了 2025 年主要规划为突出三大重点 （大力"扩面"、"开瓶"与"拓点"），确保销售收入；并围绕提升操盘 能力、数智化市场管理、提升渠道利润与品牌形象三大 ...

分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 食品饮料周报 大众品呈现结构性景气，老消费 焕发新活力 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-0.84%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金徽酒（+6.25%）、皇台酒业（+5.03%）、洋河股份 （+2.16%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为水井坊（-2.32%）、舍得酒业（-2.48%）、*ST岩石（-7.71%）。 观点：龙头持续回购，夯实市场信心。本周茅台发布回购进展公告，截至2025年5月末，公司累计回购51.0亿元，占到公司总股本 的0.2635%，其中2025年5月回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has called for the rapid preparation of a supplementary budget to support economic recovery and stimulate consumption [1] Group 1: Economic Context - The newly appointed President Lee Jae-myung has prioritized economic recovery and established an emergency economic task force composed of government officials [1] - Concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs have led to stagnation in exports and consumption, resulting in expectations for interest rate cuts and an economic contraction in South Korea [1] Group 2: Budget Details - If the additional budget is finalized under President Lee's leadership, it will increase the previously approved supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion Korean won (approximately 9.7 billion USD) from May 1 [1] - During his campaign, President Lee emphasized the necessity of an additional budget to provide short-term economic stimulus [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6]. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, and it is in the off - season. The price is at a low level, and there may be short - term weak oscillations. Short positions on rebounds are recommended [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. Long positions at low levels are recommended [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. Long positions need caution, and low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. With upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expected weakening of OPEC's pressure on oil prices, the oil price is expected to strengthen, and long positions are considered [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened high and closed low. Rising crude oil prices may drive up fuel oil prices, and long positions are considered [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. Wait for stabilization and then participate in rebounds [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns about demand and high inventory. Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long positions [31][32][33]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly follows the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. Short - term cost decline and delayed agricultural demand lead to adjustments, but exports and future agricultural demand may drive the price up. Long positions at low levels can be considered [37][38][39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. Short - term crude oil prices oscillate, and the supply - demand structure is tight. It should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and interval operations are recommended [40]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply - demand structure weakens, but inventory reduction and cost support exist. Interval operations at low levels are recommended [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply - demand situation weakens, but inventory reduction increases short - term games. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Downstream demand weakens, but cost support exists. Follow the cost - end oscillations and consider long positions at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Raw material prices decline, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve. Follow the cost - end oscillations and participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Avoid excessive long positions [46]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term rebound may not last. Control short - position risks [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The overall supply - demand is loose, with regional differences. Long - position holders should control risks [49][50]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate in the off - season, and a turnaround may occur in August [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [52][53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US trade negotiations are beneficial, and the basis for price increase exists. Long positions are considered [54][55]. Tin - Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus exists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [56][57]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support weakens, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options [59][60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The inventory is increasing, and opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Consider long positions in rapeseed meal after corrections [64][65][66]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The industry is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and USDA reports. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [67][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose. Overseas production is expected to increase, while domestic inventory is low. Consider long positions in batches [70][72][73]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long positions after corrections [74][75]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, live - pig futures fell. Group - farm sales are increasing, and consider long - spread opportunities in peak - season contracts [76][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and short positions at high levels are considered [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][84][85].