Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a pullback after briefly surpassing the 3500-point mark, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.13% at 3493.05 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.51 trillion, an increase of 51.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market showed mixed performance across sectors, with innovative drugs, pharmaceuticals, gaming, film, and coal leading gains, while gold stocks, non-ferrous metals, and chips lagged [1] Economic Indicators - In June, China's CPI turned positive at 0.10% year-on-year, with core CPI at 0.70%, influenced by seasonal weather and rising oil prices [3] - The decline in food prices was noted at 0.3% year-on-year, with beef prices increasing by 2.7% after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3] - Domestic consumption policies have supported prices in the automotive and home appliance sectors [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - Due to ongoing consumer confidence issues and international trade risks, China's CPI and PPI face significant pressure, with potential for a 10 basis point rate cut by the central bank in Q4 [4] - This could open up more space in the bond market, with investors advised to focus on government bond ETFs [4] International Developments - The "Big Beautiful" Act signed by Trump on July 4th expands the U.S. fiscal deficit, potentially supporting U.S. economic growth and impacting various sectors differently [5] - Traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors may benefit from tax advantages, while clean energy and healthcare may face reduced incentives [5] Copper Market Dynamics - The new 50% tariff on copper imports to the U.S. announced by Trump has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with U.S. copper prices rising sharply [6][10] - The current trading environment for copper is characterized by a contango structure in COMEX and a backwardation structure in LME, influenced by inventory levels and tariff expectations [10] - The anticipated tariff may reduce demand for U.S. copper, as significant stockpiling has already occurred, potentially leading to a decline in price differentials [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to consider opportunities in the 60 ETF (159881) and mining ETF (561330) as potential low-entry points in the current market environment [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income review report titled "Why is the Divergence Trend between CPI and PPI Intensifying? - Review of June Price Data" dated July 9, 2025 [1][2] - The chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, and the analyst is Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Data Observation CPI Data - In June, CPI was up 0.1% year - on - year, rising 0.2 pct from the previous month and moving from negative to positive. The month - on - month CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 pct from the previous month and the value being at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [2] - Core CPI continued to rise, indicating a possible demand recovery, but it was uneven. The year - on - year increase in CPI was stronger than that of core CPI mainly due to the reduced drag from the energy item. After removing the impact of food and energy, core inflation continued to rise year - on - year, reflecting a demand recovery. However, the recovery of consumer demand was mainly supported by sub - items such as transportation, communication, rent, water and electricity, and household appliances, while CPI in areas such as clothing, education, tourism, and household services decreased month - on - month [3] - Service CPI continued to grow, and consumer goods CPI continued to recover. The demand structure continued to shift from food to consumption and services. The decline in consumer CPI narrowed, and service CPI had been growing for 5 months, with the year - on - year value remaining at 0.5% as in the previous month. Food prices remained stable, and the increase in vegetable prices led to a narrowing of the decline in food CPI [3] PPI Data - The month - on - month PPI of consumer goods weakened. The reason was that during the subsidy gap period, the path for demand to spread from policy - driven areas to other consumer goods areas slowed down compared with the previous month. Durable consumer goods declined month - on - month in June [4] - External demand suppressed the prices of the processing industry, while the input factor of international crude oil drove the price recovery of upstream industries, and PPI entered a weak equilibrium state. In June, the decline in external demand orders in the PMI indicated a weakening of external demand, leading to a month - on - month decline in the PPI of the processing industry. High temperatures restricted infrastructure construction, resulting in demand lagging behind material supply. The decline in coal prices due to new energy substitution and over - capacity continued to reduce PPI prices, but the increase in international crude oil prices repaired the drag on domestic related industries, and deflation in upstream industries such as mining and raw material industries eased [4] Group 3: In - depth Perspective From the Perspective of Resident Income - Since March, the year - on - year decline in rent has narrowed to - 0.1% and remained unchanged for 4 consecutive months. The stable and flat trend of rent may indicate that the income improvement trend has stalled, and income recovery is the core driving force for the recovery of total demand and the return of price levels to positive [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Activity - In June, the year - on - year price of pork dropped to - 8.5%, and the month - on - month price dropped to - 1.2%. The decline in pork prices was mainly due to oversupply and also reflected a contraction in pork demand in June, suggesting a possible structural decline in factory labor demand. The continuous squeeze on corporate profits in previous months still had a lagging impact on the economy, and the significant decline in the PMI of small enterprises and employment in the manufacturing and service industries in June confirmed the contraction in pork demand. The month - on - month decline in liquor prices was 0.3%, the same as the average in the past 5 years, implying that the business activity of small enterprises remained weak [6] From the Perspective of Corporate Price Transmission - The increase in household appliance prices in June may be an illusion during the policy window period. The month - on - month increase in household appliance CPI was likely due to manufacturers adjusting prices during the subsidy gap period. The price model of leading brands was to "raise the marked price and offset with subsidies" to achieve a nominal price increase. In June, the subsidy amount in many places was exhausted, leading to a decrease in the subsidy part and an increase in the final product price. The price increase during the subsidy gap period may be a game behavior to transfer inventory pressure [7] High - frequency Data - International oil prices showed a downward trend, and PPI would face downward pressure in the next stage. The marginal price of Nanhua industrial products began to rise, but the price of rebar continued to decline. Although the third batch of 300 billion dual - purpose funds had been issued, high - temperature weather restricted demand release and limited physical construction. Glass prices continued to decline, indicating no improvement in the real estate market [7] Group 4: Future Outlook CPI Outlook - Currently, CPI has achieved an upward breakthrough with a marginal reduction in external interference items, but the demand recovery is uneven, and the recovery trend needs to be consolidated. High - frequency data shows that international oil prices have started to decline, and with the easing of local geopolitical conflicts, it is highly likely that the oil price center will shift downward in July, which may drive next month's CPI down. In July, the next batch of fiscal funds will start to be in place, and the household appliance sub - item of CPI may decline. Due to the slowdown in the transmission to other industries caused by the subsidy gap and the crowding - out of consumption in other areas this month, the price recovery in other areas next month still needs to be observed. From the perspective of corporate activities, the continuous profit compression pattern has led to a decline in the prosperity of small enterprises and employment, and the consumption demand contributed by the income side is still not optimistic [7] PPI Outlook - The supply - side dilemma of PPI has not changed. The "rush - to - export" effect of external demand is fading, and although the pull from domestic demand has slowed down, it may rebound in July, maintaining the current weak equilibrium. On the supply side, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the decline in international oil prices in July may lead to a decline in PPI prices. In terms of external demand, there are still challenges, and exports are likely to decline in the second half of the year, with trade cooling down, which is difficult to significantly drive up total demand. In terms of domestic demand, after the next batch of subsidy funds is in place in July, on the one hand, it will directly improve corporate profits, and on the other hand, the uneven pattern of CPI demand recovery may improve, and the chain of CPI pulling PPI will restart, and the PPI of consumer goods may continue to rise. However, overall, the upward repair amplitude may be relatively limited [8]

Economic Growth and Price Stability - The challenges for the second half of the year include stabilizing growth, prices, exports, and investments, requiring continuous counter-cyclical adjustment policies to ensure the achievement of the annual economic growth target [1][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight increase of 0.1% in June after four months of decline, indicating a need for further policy support to stabilize prices [2][4] - The rise in June's CPI was influenced by fluctuations in international commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, with oil prices showing a recovery after hitting a low in early May [2][3] Consumer Demand and Industrial Prices - The "two重" and "两新" policies have stimulated domestic demand, particularly in the home appliance and electronics sectors, contributing positively to overall prices [3] - Despite the recovery in consumer goods, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains weak, affecting corporate profitability and potentially limiting investment expansion [3][4] Policy Expectations - Market expectations for policy direction in the second half remain focused on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices, with a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [4] - Fiscal policy will rely on the issuance of government and local bonds to maintain necessary financing growth, supporting sectors like "两重" and "两新" [4]

英国首相斯塔默：英国政府仍然致力于遵守财政规则。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sales of excavators in China are showing a significant recovery, indicating a gradual revival of the engineering machinery industry and a rebound in domestic demand [3][5]. Group 1: Sales Data - In June 2025, a total of 18,804 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, with a notable rise of 11.18% compared to the previous month [1]. - For the first half of 2025, 120,520 excavators were sold, marking a year-on-year growth of 16.8%, with domestic sales at 65,637 units (up 22.9%) and exports at 54,883 units (up 10.2%) [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Policy Support - The issuance of special bonds is crucial for supporting infrastructure development, with new special bond issuance reaching approximately 21,607 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 44.7% increase from 14,935 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance is implementing more proactive fiscal policies to enhance investment in areas that benefit people's livelihoods and stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Guotai Junan Securities, domestic excavator sales are expected to continue rising due to counter-cyclical fiscal policies and an upward industry cycle [5]. - Everbright Securities estimates a compound growth of around 30% in replacement demand for construction machinery in 2025 and subsequent years, which will strongly support future excavator sales [6].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and anticipates the strategic opportunities and challenges of the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and the need for coordinated policies to achieve economic and social progress [3][5][23]. Economic Growth - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's GDP consistently surpassed 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion yuan, with an expected reach of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025. The average economic growth rate over the first four years was 5.5%, contributing about 30% to global economic growth [3][4][16][12]. Domestic Demand - Domestic demand has become the main driver of economic growth, with an average contribution rate of 86.4% from 2021 to 2024. Final consumption's contribution to economic growth averaged 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3][4][16]. Innovation and Technology - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritized innovation, with R&D investment reaching a new high, increasing nearly 50% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan." The R&D intensity rose to 2.68%, approaching the OECD average [17]. Social Welfare - The economic and technological advancements have translated into improved public welfare, with significant enhancements in education, healthcare, and social security systems. The coverage rates for basic pension and medical insurance exceeded 95% [18]. Governance and Reform - The article highlights improvements in governance efficiency, with a better business environment and increased organizational capacity. The number of private enterprises grew by over 40% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [19]. Green Development - The concept of green development has gained traction, with significant achievements in afforestation, pollution control, and clean energy utilization. The forest coverage rate increased to over 25%, and the proportion of clean energy in electricity generation is expected to rise [20]. Safety and Security - The article emphasizes the strengthening of food, energy, and national security during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of over 10 billion mu of high-standard farmland and the largest power infrastructure system globally [21]. Global Responsibility - China has taken active steps in global green development and international cooperation, contributing to the "Belt and Road" initiative and reducing carbon emissions significantly [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs by President Trump on Japan and other trade partners, which have led to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly the USD/JPY [1][2] - Following Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and other countries, the USD/JPY exchange rate rose to its highest point in over two weeks, indicating market reactions to trade tensions [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan are at an impasse, primarily due to Japan's reluctance to compromise on rice market protection, which is affecting the value of the yen [2] Group 2 - The Euro is holding steady against the dollar as the market speculates on the possibility of the EU receiving exemptions from U.S. tariffs, which could influence currency valuations [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, while the European Central Bank is only expected to lower rates once, affecting the relative strength of the euro against the dollar [3]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The report highlights the exposure of fiscal risks, indicating potential global liquidity shocks [3][7][18] - A shift from globalization to confrontation has disrupted the stable state of the global economy, with the long-term downward trend of 10-year US Treasury yields being broken [7][18] - The divergence between US Treasury yields and the dollar reflects an extreme pricing of fiscal risks [9][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic deflation expectations are easing, activating a persistent accumulation of excess liquidity [3][57] - The report notes that actual interest rates are declining from high levels, which alleviates the financing costs for various economic sectors [78] - The report indicates that the actual dollar index is building a mid-term top, which may relieve external pressures on the economic cycle [82] Group 3: A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing rapid rotation within a narrow range, driven by excess liquidity [3][57] - Small-cap stocks are expected to outperform due to the accumulation of excess liquidity since 2024 [118][121] - The report identifies key sectors for investment, including AI, robotics, and military industries, which have shown resilience amid trade tensions [117] Group 4: Industry Allocation Insights - The report emphasizes the correlation between excess liquidity and sectoral excess returns, particularly in sectors like electrical machinery and chemical materials [121][124] - The report suggests that the market is not driven by improved economic expectations but rather by key technological breakthroughs that shift deflation expectations [91] - The report indicates that the speed of industry rotation has increased, suggesting a dynamic market environment [104]

摘要周三（7月9日）欧盘时段，现货黄金延续下行势头，最新黄金价格报3284.47美元/盎司，跌幅 0.51%，美元指数维持近日的反弹趋势，而限制了黄金多头，另外，金价走势也处于强劲阻力下方，空 头占据优势，而使得多头动力有限。 周三（7月9日）欧盘时段，现货黄金延续下行势头，最新黄金价格报3284.47美元/盎司，跌幅0.51%， 美元指数维持近日的反弹趋势，而限制了黄金多头，另外，金价走势也处于强劲阻力下方，空头占据优 势，而使得多头动力有限。 【要闻速递】 那么，短期来看，本周还将重点关注美联储会议纪要，若纪要偏鸽，表明决策者对经济前景持谨慎态 度，美元可能面临回调压力，金价将获得支撑止跌反弹走强。 反之，若强调维持高利率的必要性，则有望提振美元走强，打压金价回落。进一步触及周图中轨线支撑 目标。 【技术分析】 基本面上，特朗普将关税协议延长至8月1日开始再度征收，其短暂的缓冲期，和美国与部分国家达成部 分协议，令市场获得喘息机会，而打压金价回落走低。 黄金价格昨天早盘冲高回落，日内主要震荡为主。晚间受消息面影响大跌，最低触及3287一线，日线收 阴。单看日线今天还有低点，但是接近3280是周线关键支撑， ...