Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the US dollar rebounded and demand was weak, causing the non - ferrous metals to give back recent gains. In the medium and short term, the weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand expectations limit the upside. It is expected that basic metals will generally maintain a pattern of oscillating upward. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support the prices of basic metals [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper prices had a phased decline. In the medium term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025. Freeport - McMoRan's Indonesian mine suspended operations. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot premium of electrolytic copper rebounded, and copper inventories increased. The "770 - Document" led to production cuts in the recycled copper market. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the market's optimistic sentiment declined after the interest rate cut. On the supply side, mine supply disruptions increased, and recycled copper production cuts were expected. On the demand side, the peak season had arrived, but inventory reduction was not obvious. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to show an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are oscillating weakly. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices declined in multiple regions on September 18. In August 2025, China's alumina exports increased year - on - year, and aluminum bauxite imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Alumina warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment interfered with the market. Fundamentally, refinery profits shrank, but raw materials were relatively abundant. Operating capacity continued to reach new highs, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be oscillating and slightly weaker, with prices under pressure. Consider short - selling on rallies or waiting and watching, and also pay attention to the 10 - 1, 2 - 3 reverse arbitrage opportunities [10][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: After the interest rate cut, aluminum prices declined. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changed. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Relevant policies were issued, and a company's new project is expected to be put into production in 2026. - **Logic**: In the short term, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and risk - aversion sentiment increased. On the supply side, replacement production capacity was put into operation, and on the demand side, the peak season was approaching, but the inventory reduction inflection point was not clear. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to be range - bound. In the medium term, supply growth is limited, and demand remains resilient, with the price center expected to rise [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of Baotai ADC12 decreased, and the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports, and most die - casting enterprises plan to have holidays in October. - **Logic**: On the cost side, scrap aluminum supply was tight, providing cost support. On the supply side, the start - up rate increased marginally, and on the demand side, there was marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance remains to be seen. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at a low level. In the future, there is room for an increase, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [14][15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, zinc prices declined with the non - ferrous metals. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the spot premium of zinc in different regions changed, and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The CZSPT released the import zinc concentrate processing fee guidance for the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. - **Logic**: Macro - wise, the interest rate cut was in line with expectations, and the non - ferrous metals sector declined. On the supply side, zinc ore supply was loose, and smelters' profitability was good. On the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations were average. - **Outlook**: In September, zinc ingot production will remain high, and inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to be oscillating [16][17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The supply of recycled lead decreased, and lead prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased. SMM's lead ingot price increased, and the spot premium decreased. Lead ingot social inventories increased slightly, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount and the price difference between primary and recycled lead increased, and warehouse receipts decreased. On the supply side, recycled lead production decreased, and on the demand side, it was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the lead - acid battery start - up rate was high. - **Outlook**: The macro - environment is positive. Lead demand is stable, and supply may tighten slightly. The supply - demand gap may continue, and lead prices are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [17][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories increased significantly, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME nickel inventories decreased slightly, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron was firm, and relevant company events had little impact on production. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel supply is in excess, and inventories are accumulating. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are oscillating widely, and in the long term, it is advisable to wait and watch [20][22]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, stainless steel is operating weakly. - **Analysis**: Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts decreased, the spot premium of stainless steel changed, and the average price of high - nickel pig iron increased. - **Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are stable. Stainless steel production increased in August, and inventory reduction was limited. - **Outlook**: Be vigilant about the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. Stainless steel is expected to be range - bound in the short term [24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Shanghai tin inventories have been declining continuously, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Analysis**: On September 18, LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the spot price of tin decreased. - **Logic**: The supply side is the core concern. The复产 of the Wa State mine is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening, and inventories are rising. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating due to tight supply at the mine end [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different metals are as follows: copper - oscillating strongly; alumina - short - term oscillating weakly; aluminum - short - term oscillating, medium - term expected to move up; aluminum alloy - short - term oscillating, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 expected to rise later; zinc - oscillating; lead - oscillating strongly; nickel - oscillating weakly; stainless steel - oscillating; tin - oscillating [8][10][15][18][19][20][23][25][26][27] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The US dollar remains weak, and base metals are still expected to strengthen. Weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, but weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the short to medium term, base metals are expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support metal prices [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The US dollar index oscillates at a low level, and copper prices operate at a high level. It is expected to be oscillating strongly [8] - **Analysis**: US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected; a mine in Indonesia suspended operations; August copper production decreased slightly month - on - month; spot copper premiums declined; copper inventory increased; a policy led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; August US CPI rose [8][9] - **Logic**: The low - level US dollar index supports copper prices. Supply is disrupted by mine accidents and policy - induced production cuts. Demand is in the peak season, but inventory reduction is not obvious. If inventory drops, copper prices may strengthen [9] 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected to be oscillating [10] - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions declined; an aluminum plant's bid price for alumina decreased; there was a strike warning in a Guinean aluminum - bauxite enterprise; a Guinean company had a strong复产 expectation; there was an overseas alumina transaction; alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10][11][13] - **Logic**: Macro sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, refinery profits have shrunk, production capacity is at a new high, supply is in excess, and imports may increase, so prices are under pressure [14] 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Pay attention to the demand quality, and aluminum prices oscillate. Short - term consumption and inventory turning points need to be observed, and the medium - term center is expected to move up [15][16] - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices declined slightly; inventory continued to accumulate; a policy on new energy power was released; a company planned to replace and build an electrolytic aluminum project [15] - **Logic**: Short - term interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar is weak. Supply capacity is high, demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction turning point is not clear, so prices oscillate [15] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the futures price oscillates. ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rise later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [18] - **Analysis**: Aluminum alloy prices declined; relevant policies on margin and export tax were introduced; a company extended its product line [16][17][18] - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum supports prices. Supply and demand are both marginally improving, and inventory is accumulating. The AD - AL spread is expected to rise [18] 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate. In the long - term, there is room for prices to fall [20] - **Analysis**: Spot zinc discounts remained stable; zinc inventory increased; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was determined [19] - **Logic**: The US labor market is weak, and the US dollar is under pressure. Zinc supply is loose, demand is average, and the market is in excess. With the expectation of Fed rate cuts, zinc prices oscillate in the short term [20] 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Recycled lead supply decreases, and lead prices oscillate strongly [20] - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable; lead prices were stable; lead inventory increased due to delivery and is expected to fall after delivery; downstream consumption is in the transition period, and battery factory operating rates are high [20][21][22] - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply is reduced by policy - induced production cuts, and demand is stable. The supply - demand gap may continue, so prices are oscillating strongly [22][23] 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME nickel inventory increased significantly, and nickel prices oscillate weakly [24] - **Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly; high - nickel pig iron prices were stable; an Indonesian mine was not significantly affected by an incident; a company completed a nickel - mine acquisition [23][24] - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening, with increased inventory and weak price support, so prices oscillate weakly [25] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are stable, and stainless steel prices operate weakly. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Analysis**: Stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot premiums were stable; nickel - iron prices were stable; August stainless steel production increased; inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices are stable. Production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased. Attention should be paid to demand during the peak season [26] 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices oscillate at a high level [27] - **Analysis**: LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts changed; spot tin prices declined; the复产 of a mine in Wa State was slow; Indonesian exports will gradually return to normal; African tin production is unstable; domestic tin concentrate processing fees are low, and production rates are falling; tin inventory has increased [27] - **Logic**: Supply is tight, which supports prices. However, terminal demand has weakened, and inventory has increased, so upward momentum is limited [27] 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) - The report lists different metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text [30][44][56][69][82][95][109][124][136] 3.3商品指数 (Commodity Indexes) - On September 17, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2245.98 (- 0.33%), the commodity 20 index was 2515.59 (- 0.45%), and the industrial products index was 2270.66 (+ 0.04%). The non - ferrous metals index was 2396.21, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month increase of 1.19%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.81% [155][157]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a significant decline, with the main contract closing at 78,960 yuan/ton on August 23, marking a cumulative drop of over 11% in the last four trading days [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price drop is attributed to weak fundamentals, negative news, and profit-taking by investors [3]. - The core driver of the recent price surge was supply disruptions, but the subsequent price increase has begun to stimulate supply [3]. - Market sentiment has turned bearish, particularly following news of production resumption by Yichun Silver Lithium and a more than 30% month-on-month increase in lithium ore imports in July [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 21, lithium carbonate production was approximately 19,100 tons, a decrease of 842 tons from the previous week, primarily due to reductions in lithium mica and salt lake production [5]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 713 tons to around 141,500 tons, indicating a significant drawdown, although inventory levels remain high compared to the past year [5]. - Current market contradictions include halted production at key projects and potential license expirations for mining operations, which could lead to further supply constraints [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market remains in a loose supply-demand balance, with short-term price pressures likely [6]. - There is an expectation of increased demand as the "golden September and silver October" consumption season approaches, which may support prices despite recent declines [6]. - The sensitivity of the market to supply disruptions remains high, and prices may experience volatility as new information emerges [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, ongoing supply disruptions, and structural demand differentiation in the market [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 54.5, exceeding expectations and indicating the fastest expansion since 2022, which has strengthened the US dollar and put pressure on commodity prices [1] - The imposition of tariffs by the US has increased market uncertainty, leading to a decline in major US stock indices and a cautious trading environment [1] Supply Side Analysis - Global tin supply is heavily concentrated in countries like Myanmar and Indonesia, with production dynamics in these countries directly impacting market supply [1] - Myanmar's production recovery is hindered by slow infrastructure repairs and labor shortages, resulting in lower-than-expected output [1] - Indonesia's refined tin export quotas are subject to domestic policy changes, adding to supply uncertainty [1] - The overall quality of global tin resources is declining, leading to increased mining costs and the exit of smaller mines due to financial and technical constraints [2] Demand Side Analysis - Traditional demand from the electronics sector is weakening due to slower product iterations, particularly in smartphones and tablets, leading to reduced solder demand [1] - Conversely, emerging sectors such as electric vehicle battery manufacturing and photovoltaic component soldering are experiencing rapid growth in tin demand, particularly driven by global clean energy policies [1] Industry Chain Dynamics - Upstream tin mining companies face dual pressures from rising costs and resource depletion, necessitating increased investment in technology [2] - Midstream smelting companies are experiencing fluctuating operating rates due to unstable supply, leading to reduced processing fees and profit margins [2] - Downstream manufacturing companies are compelled to control costs and explore alternative materials, although the short-term irreplaceability of tin in key applications remains significant [2] Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, influenced by the recovery progress in major producing countries and the stability of Indonesia's export policies, alongside the unexpected growth in demand from new energy and photovoltaic sectors [3] - If supply disruptions ease and emerging demand continues to grow, tin prices may find support; conversely, if supply increases unexpectedly while demand growth slows, prices could face downward pressure [3]

Report Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [8][10][11][12][13][15][16][18][19]. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine production restriction expectation cannot be falsified in the short term, the coking coal supply is still shrinking, the steel inventory is low, and there is a strong expectation of production restriction before major events, which strongly supports the price. In a stable fundamental state, there may be a resonance between macro - positive policies and the industry in the future. Recently, the black market has been highly volatile and will mainly oscillate within the current range before new drivers emerge [3]. Summary by Category Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to the level of the same period last year, with relatively stable supply and no obvious increase [3]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Due to regular maintenance, the molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production reduction due to profit reasons is small in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether there are production restriction policies in the second half of the month [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the iron ore port area increased due to the concentrated arrival of sea - floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation range was limited [3]. - Outlook: The fundamental negative drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [3]. Carbon Element - Supply: Some coal mines in the main production areas reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production checks, and some coal mines actively stopped or reduced production. Although the Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level, there were restrictions on some traders' haulage recently, which may affect future customs clearance [4]. - Demand: The coke output was temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the inventory of some coal mines had started to accumulate, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment in the spot market [4]. - Outlook: Under supply disturbances, the short - term supply - demand relationship is tight, and the futures price is expected to be more likely to rise than to fall in the short term [4]. Alloys - Manganese Silicate: The cost support was continuously strengthened by the continuous increase in coke prices. The wait - and - see sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, and the port ore prices remained firm. The downstream demand was still resilient, but the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Ferrosilicon: The output is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the supply - demand relationship is healthy. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4]. Glass - Demand: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw - sheet inventory increased month - on - month. After the futures price dropped, the spot market sentiment declined, and the upstream production and sales decreased significantly [5]. - Supply: One production line was still waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, with no prominent internal contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances [5]. - Outlook: Although the cost support strengthened due to the recent increase in coal prices, the fundamentals were still weak. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. Steel - Core Logic: The Sino - US tariff suspension is expected to maintain export resilience. The arrival of delivery resources may increase supply pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory of five major steel products is accumulating. The fundamental situation has marginally weakened, but the low inventory and potential production - restriction disturbances before the parade still support the short - term futures price [10]. - Outlook: Focus on steel mill production - restriction and terminal demand [10]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume slightly decreased. Spot market prices rose. Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to last year's level. Steel enterprise profitability reached a three - year high, and the molten iron output decreased slightly. The port inventory increased due to concentrated arrivals, with limited inventory accumulation [10]. - Outlook: With high demand and stable supply, the price is expected to oscillate [11]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The supply decreased as the shipping willingness was low. The demand increased as the electric - furnace profit was good, and the total daily consumption increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days were at a low level [12]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate [12]. Coke - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to production - restriction rumors. Spot prices increased. After five rounds of price increases, coke production was stable. Downstream steel mills had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the iron - water output remained high. The supply - demand structure was tight, and the price was still supported [13]. - Outlook: The market has started the sixth round of price increases, and attention should be paid to possible parade - related production - restriction policies [13]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Futures prices were strong due to supply disturbances. Spot prices were stable. Supply was affected by production - reduction factors in the main production areas and potential customs - clearance restrictions on Mongolian coal. Demand was firm, and some coal mines had started to accumulate inventory, increasing the wait - and - see sentiment [15]. - Outlook: Supply recovery is expected to be slow, and the futures price is likely to rise in the short term [15]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The market's expectation of supply reduction increased. Supply capacity was not cleared, and production was at a high level. Demand for heavy soda decreased, and light - soda downstream procurement was weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remained unchanged, and there was significant short - term delivery pressure [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [18]. Manganese Silicate - Core Logic: The futures price was under pressure due to increased supply. The spot price was firm. The cost increased, and the supply - demand relationship might gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [18]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited upward space in the long term [18]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The futures price oscillated as production recovery accelerated. The spot price was supported by cost. Supply was expected to increase, and demand from the steel - making and metal - magnesium industries was resilient. Attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [19]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term fundamentals have potential concerns [19].

Group 1 - The copper market is still digesting the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with LME copper prices declining due to a significant increase in inventory [2] - The U.S. has announced tariffs specifically on semi-finished copper products, leading to expectations that COMEX copper inventories may see a return, which contributed to last week's price drop [2] - High tariffs have resulted in no expected increase in copper supply from outside the U.S., providing price support [2] Group 2 - Supply disruptions in Chile are also supporting copper prices, particularly due to issues at Codelco's El Teniente mine, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, accounting for about 7% of Chile's total output [2] - Codelco must submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations, indicating potential production interruptions [2] - Low smelting and refining costs suggest tight raw material supplies, and any production disruptions could significantly tighten the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

Core Viewpoint - Coking coal futures have surged for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of over 40%, indicating a tightening supply situation due to ongoing supply disruptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures have experienced a significant price increase, with a total rise exceeding 40% over the past five days [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the trading limits for coking coal futures in response to market conditions [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Ongoing supply disruptions are contributing to a tight supply situation for coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest that there is a need to be cautious about potential macroeconomic sentiment shifts if policies do not meet expectations [1]

Report Information - Report Name: [Huabao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - Aluminum: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow-up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season [9]. - Zinc: Supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news [10]. - Tin: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term [11]. Section Summaries 01 Non - ferrous Weekly Market Review - Copper (CU2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 79,920, up 1,930 (2.47%) from June 20. The spot price was 80,160, up 1,790 (2.28%) [7]. - Aluminum (AL2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 20,580, up 115 (0.56%) from June 20. The spot price was 20,940, up 240 (1.16%) [7]. - Zinc (ZN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 22,410, up 565 (2.59%) from June 20. The spot price was 22,406, up 634 (2.91%) [7]. - Tin (SN2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 268,870, up 8,310 (3.19%) from June 20. The spot price was 270,500, up 6,500 (2.46%) [7]. - Nickel (NI2508): The closing price of the futures main contract on June 27 was 120,480, up 2,200 (1.86%) from June 20. The spot price was 122,540, up 1,900 (1.57%) [7]. 02 This Week's Non - ferrous Market Forecast Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices first declined and then rose. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to gradually emerge. The average weekly outbound volume in the 4th week of May was 3.54 million tons/week, and in the 4th week of June, it was 3.32 million tons/week, a decrease of 220,000 tons/week. In June, the PMI composite index of the aluminum processing industry was 40.1%, falling below the boom - bust line, a decrease of 9.7 percentage points month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year. As of June 30, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 468,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from last Thursday and 4,000 tons from last Monday. Due to the increase in the overall supply of aluminum ingots in late June and the high price of aluminum inhibiting consumption and outbound performance, inventory accumulation occurred as expected. In early July, with the expected slight increase in the ingot - casting volume in some provinces, inventory may continue to increase steadily. [9] - View: Macro uncertainty remains high. Low inventory provides support but there are signs of inventory accumulation. Prices are expected to move within a range in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of news and the transition of downstream off - season. [9] Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices were strong. The macro - market sentiment improved due to macro - easing, and the expectation of interest rate cuts also supported the upward movement of LME zinc. There was a strike by workers at a zinc smelter in Peru, and overseas inventories have been declining recently, which brought uncertainty to the supply side and drove prices up. The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 58.72%, a decrease of 0.28% month - on - month. The procurement of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to the rising zinc price and weakening downstream consumption, and the raw material inventory decreased while the finished product inventory increased. The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 46.54%, a decrease of 8.58 percentage points month - on - month. Due to the rising zinc price, enterprise procurement willingness was low, and the raw material inventory decreased. Due to weakening downstream consumption and high prices, the outbound volume of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of June 30, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and 1,100 tons from June 26. [10] - View: Zinc supply disruptions boost short - term prices, but medium - to long - term supply increases will put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the development of news. [10] Tin - Logic: Overseas supply remains tight, domestic smelting enterprise inventories are low, and the operating rate has decreased. Although future supply is expected to be loose, short - term supply tightness continues to support tin prices. Downstream demand has not changed much, but there are signs of slowing growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and home appliances, which may put some pressure on tin. [11] - View: Prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but downward pressure will increase in the medium term. [11] 03 Variety Data Aluminum - Bauxite: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 640 yuan/ton from June 20 to June 27, up 15 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged at 570 yuan/ton, up 30 year - on - year; the average import bauxite price index was 74.21 US dollars/ton on June 27, a decrease of 0.22 from June 20 and an increase of 2.04 year - on - year. The port arrival volume on June 27 was 4.8992 million tons, an increase of 698,300 tons from June 20 and 716,400 tons year - on - year; the port outbound volume was 3.7212 million tons, a decrease of 783,300 tons from June 20 and an increase of 13,100 tons year - on - year. [15][18] - Alumina: The domestic price in Henan on June 27 was 3,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 from June 20 and 790 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,866.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.5 from June 20 and an increase of 47.8 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was 136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 from June 20 and 957.58 year - on - year. [21] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total cost on June 27 was 16,864.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125.37 from June 20 and 1,096.24 year - on - year; the regional price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 from June 20 and 80 year - on - year. The operating rates of aluminum cable, aluminum foil, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum profile, primary aluminum alloy, and recycled aluminum alloy all had certain changes. The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on June 26 was 103,300 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from June 19 and 57,200 tons year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 119,300 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from June 19 and 67,200 tons year - on - year; the social inventory on June 30 was 468,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 295,000 tons year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on June 23 was 108,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons from June 16 and an increase of 11,100 tons year - on - year. The SHFE inventory on June 27 was 94,290 tons, a decrease of 10,194 tons from June 20 and 167,910 tons year - on - year; the LME inventory was 345,200 tons, an increase of 2,350 tons from June 20 and a decrease of 687,675 tons year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM A00 aluminum also had corresponding changes. [23][27][32][33] Zinc - Zinc Concentrate: The domestic zinc concentrate price on June 27 was 17,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 3,090 year - on - year; the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,600 yuan/metal ton from June 20, an increase of 1,300 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 65.25 US dollars/dry ton, an increase of 9.98 from June 20. The enterprise production profit was 4,400 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 432 from June 20 and a decrease of 2,548 year - on - year; the import profit and loss was - 988.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 558.63 from June 20 and 906.63 year - on - year; the imported zinc concentrate inventory in Lianyungang on June 27 was 80,000 physical tons, a decrease of 10,000 from June 20 and an increase of 64,000 year - on - year. [49][52] - Refined Zinc: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on June 30 was 80,600 tons, an increase of 2,800 tons from June 23 and a decrease of 117,300 tons year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on June 26 was 6,000 tons, unchanged from June 19 and a decrease of 7,500 tons year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on June 27 was 43,633 tons, an increase of 769 from June 20 and a decrease of 83,064 tons year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory was 119,225 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from June 20 and 120,375 tons year - on - year. [55] - Galvanized: The production volume on June 27 was 334,740 tons, a decrease of 4,960 from June 20 and 5,480 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.21, a decrease of 2.39 from June 20 and 0.89 year - on - year; the raw material inventory was 14,525 tons, a decrease of 720 from June 20 and an increase of 1,475 year - on - year; the finished product inventory was 379,500 tons, an increase of 600 from June 20 and a decrease of 47,680 year - on - year. The basis and monthly spread of SMM 0 zinc ingot also had corresponding changes. [58][61][65] Tin - Refined Tin: The combined output of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on June 27 was 2,470 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 790 tons year - on - year; the combined operating rate was 50.97%, an increase of 4.13 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 16.3 percentage points year - on - year. [69] - Tin Ingot: The total SHFE tin ingot inventory on June 27 was 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 from the previous period and 8,172 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in Chinese regions was 9,096 tons, an increase of 251 from the previous period and a decrease of 7,221 tons year - on - year. [72] - Tin Ore: The tin concentrate processing fees in Yunnan (40%), Guangxi (60%), Hunan (60%), and Jiangxi (60%) remained unchanged from June 20, with a year - on - year decrease of 5,000. The tin ore import profit and loss level on June 26 was 10,606.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,635.29 from the previous period and 6,890.96 year - on - year. The average prices of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan and 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi all increased by 5,700 from June 20 and 6,250 year - on - year. [74][75][79]