1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current bond market stabilization is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable trend in the capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields after previous adjustments [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures declined significantly. The 30 - year main contract fell by about 2%, and the 10 - year contract fell by over 0.5%. The short - end showed relative resistance. The market focus was on the commodity market, where commodities started a bullish trend. The rise in commodities may break the deflation trend, improve corporate profitability, and lead to a recovery in risk appetite. The increase in capital prices and marginal tightening of liquidity further intensified the bond market correction, and bond funds faced redemption pressure [4]. - Looking forward, the current decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the attractiveness of bond yields. In the long - run, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the bond bull market logic may persist [8]. 3.2 PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various liquidity - related data, including open - market operations (amount and price), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, deposit - related interest rates, and bond yield data, but does not provide specific analysis based on these data [11][12][14]. 3.3 PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds, but does not offer specific analysis based on these data [42][51][59][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - **Liquidity**: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - **Industry - specific Economic Data**: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - **PMI Data**: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index**: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **supply-side reform** in China, specifically the **Supply-Side Reform 2.0** and its implications for various industries, particularly in the context of **overcapacity** and **deflation** [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Return of "Anti-Involution"**: The term "involution" has gained traction in recent years, with the government emphasizing the need to combat it. This reflects a shift in policy focus towards sustainable growth and social welfare [2][10]. 2. **Complex Current Environment**: The current economic landscape is more complicated than the previous supply-side reforms (2015-2018). The overcapacity issue is exacerbated by a more challenging industry structure and macroeconomic environment [1][4][10]. 3. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: - **Target Industries**: The previous reforms primarily targeted upstream industries, while the current focus is on midstream and downstream sectors [5]. - **Enterprise Types**: The earlier reforms were dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whereas the current situation sees a predominance of private enterprises [5]. - **Execution Methods**: The previous reforms relied heavily on administrative orders, while the current approach is expected to be more balanced and flexible [5]. 4. **Limited Backward Capacity**: The current overcapacity is largely in advanced production capacities developed in recent years, making it difficult to identify clear targets for shutdowns [8][10]. 5. **Economic Weakness and Fiscal Constraints**: The economic downturn and high government debt (over 100% of GDP) limit the government's ability to implement expansive fiscal policies, which are crucial for stimulating demand [8][10]. 6. **Historical Context**: The success of the previous supply-side reforms was attributed to clear directives from the central government and the dominant role of SOEs in key industries [9][10]. 7. **Need for Demand Stimulation**: The report emphasizes that demand stimulation is critical to mitigate the negative impacts of supply-side adjustments, as significant production cuts could lead to job losses and reduced overall demand [9][10]. 8. **Policy Implementation Challenges**: Despite recent meetings to discuss "anti-involution" measures, there is still no clear timeline or actionable plan, indicating the complexity of implementing these reforms [10][11]. 9. **Potential for Future Reforms**: The report suggests that while the direction of the "anti-involution" policy is correct, the tools available for implementation are more limited compared to previous reforms, and the affected industries are broader [13]. Other Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Analysis**: - In the **photovoltaic industry**, there are concerns about potential demand declines and high inventory levels, complicating the path for production cuts [12]. - In the **express delivery sector**, companies have not yet changed their pricing and competition strategies, indicating a potential for varied outcomes based on different production cut policies [12]. - In the **upstream materials sector**, the enforcement of renewable energy consumption responsibilities may influence capacity exits, but flexibility remains in execution [12]. - **Conclusion on Inflation**: The report concludes that rapid re-inflation is contingent on demand improvement, and the current economic conditions suggest a slow re-inflation process, with expectations of continued deflation into late 2026 [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has rebounded due to the anti - involution driving up related sectors and the rebound of the large financial sector. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually settling. Domestically, attention should be paid to the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July, with anti - involution expected to be an important theme. There are opportunities for market style transformation [3]. - In the bond market, although the economic data in the second quarter remained resilient under tariff disturbances, the抢 - export effect may weaken. With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but recent positive commodity and stock market sentiments have suppressed the bond market [4][5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to make a dovish statement in the July interest - rate meeting, and there is a possibility of more than expected interest rate cuts. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [6]. - In the base metals market, most metal prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - events. For example, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, while aluminum prices may also show a similar trend [8][9]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are supported by cost and supply - demand policies, but the market still needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile, and glass and soda ash prices are affected by policies and market sentiment [22][23][25]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber has different views from bulls and bears, and crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand [34][35][41]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, weather, and policies. For example, the pig price is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and the egg price is affected by supply and demand during the peak season [54][55]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: New central enterprise China Yajiang Group's leadership was unveiled; China proposed to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization; National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial enterprise profits; domestic commodity futures closed down at night; Tesla's intelligent driving plan is to be further implemented in China [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM show negative basis ratios, while IH shows positive ones. It is recommended to go long on IF futures on dips, focusing on market style transformation opportunities [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts all declined on Friday. Eurozone and US economic data were released, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term bond market is suppressed. Wait for opportunities to enter the market on dips [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish, and it is recommended to go long on silver [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated last week. Inventory changes varied in different exchanges. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, affected by macro - events and supply - demand fundamentals [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. Domestic inventory is at a relatively low level, but the price rebound is limited due to the off - season and weak export demand [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the medium - and long - term price is bearish. There are short - term risks due to market sentiment [10]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is marginally tightened, and if smelter inspections expand, prices may strengthen [11][12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were slightly strong. Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices were range - bound and slightly strong. Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and prices may be range - bound and slightly weak [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There is a strong expectation of supply - demand repair, but the real fundamentals have not changed. It is recommended that speculators wait and see [15][16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Supply is tightening, and demand is recovering, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated. The off - season demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19][20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices rose. Supported by cost and policies, but need to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices declined. Supply has rebounded, and demand remains high. Prices are expected to be volatile [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Supported by policies and inventory reduction, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction exists [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Both rose and hit the daily limit. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [27][28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, supply is excessive [30][31][32]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices declined at night. There are different views from bulls and bears, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [34][35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices had different trends. It has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40][41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, and the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to supply increase and demand decrease [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, prices are expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward [44][45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply and demand are both improving, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of valuation decline [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but demand is expected to pick up. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices rose. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, and the inventory reduction is promoted by high - maintenance [50][51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices rose. Affected by macro - expectations in the context of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices were stable with local fluctuations. The market is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices declined. Supply is sufficient, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to spreads [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Palm oil prices declined. Supported by policies and supply - demand fundamentals, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take a range - bound view [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic import pressure may increase, and prices may decline [61]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Affected by factors such as downstream consumption and import quota expectations, there are potential downward risks [62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand in the long - term. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform 2.0 expectations, which have led to a surge in market sentiment. However, there are signs that the short - term exuberant sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to the risk of a significant price drop when the sentiment wanes. It is also recommended that relevant enterprises seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Production and Price Data**: The weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg. The DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Spot and Futures Data**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [15]. - **Cost Data**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Supply Data**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year [15]. - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon production remained at a low level, DMC production was basically stable, and overall demand was still relatively weak [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [21]. 3. Profit and Cost - **Cost Factors**: The average electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 0.02 yuan/kWh and 0.04 yuan/kWh respectively week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained unchanged. The silicon coal price in the main production areas increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week [26][29]. - **Production Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [29]. 4. Supply and Demand - **Supply - Total Output**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year. In June 2025, the industrial silicon output was 331,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 321,000 tons or 14.74% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - Main Production Areas Output**: Data on the output of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc. are presented in the form of graphs, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [36][39][42]. - **Demand - Polysilicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg [46]. - **Demand - Organic Silicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Demand - Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [52]. - **Demand - Export**: From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [55]. 5. Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [60]. 6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. During the week, it broke through the upper edge of the flag (or expanding horn pattern) and briefly accelerated upwards, once exceeding 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly gain of 1,005 yuan/ton or 11.55%. At the daily - line level, the short - term rebound trend continued, but the upward momentum became looser. Short - term attention should be paid to the price performance at the resistance level around 10,000 yuan/ton, and be wary of the risk of price decline [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bullish sentiment of commodities driven by the unfalsifiable "anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform 2.0 expectations is the dominant factor for the price of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon. The speculative behavior of short - term funds has made the price deviate from the actual fundamentals. Although it's hard to determine if the price has reached the short - term peak, the significant reduction in positions and drop of coking coal on the night of July 25 may symbolize the end of the short - term exuberant sentiment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [15][96] - In the long - term, both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector, will face a situation of weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of a rapid decline in the demand for coil products and a significant drop in high - level hot metal production [15][96] 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton. The production cost increased, with Inner Mongolia at 5964 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5924 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6194 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. The estimated visible inventory was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit continued to be in the red, production increased, rebar production was weak, hot metal production remained high, visible inventory continued to decline but remained high, and the tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [15] 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 3.47%, at a low level in historical statistics [20] 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from last week; Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton; and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [25] - **Cost**: The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5964 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton from last week; in Ningxia, it was 5924 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton; and in Guangxi, it was 6194 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The main producing area's electricity price remained stable. In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. As of July 18, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 428.5 tons, down 4.2 tons [27][30][33] 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 75.23 tons, up 0.93 tons, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 15.67 tons or 3.10% year - on - year [44] - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 63.54%, up 3.47 percentage points [58][61][62] 3.1.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons, continuing to decline but remaining at a high level. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 20.5 tons, down 1.13 tons. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days, at a historical low [69][72][75] 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the manganese silicon futures price broke through the upper pressure level on July 25 and rose sharply, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 624 yuan/ton or 10.74%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend and accelerated upwards. Pay attention to the pressure around the gap of 6586 - 6644 yuan/ton [81] Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The production cost in the main producing areas remained stable [95] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit rebounded significantly, production continued to increase, hot metal production remained high, export and magnesium metal demand were average, inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period, and the steel tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [96] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [96] 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics [101] 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [106] - **Cost**: The silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable, and the semi - coke small material price was 590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The electricity price in the main producing areas remained stable, and the production cost in the main producing areas remained basically stable [109][112] 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.23 tons, up 0.23 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 0.26% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 41.4 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to June increased by 5.48 tons or 2.08% year - on - year [117] - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The export profit of ferrosilicon was 63 yuan/ton, significantly weakening, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 419 million tons, down 450 tons or 1.06% year - on - year [126][129][132] 3.2.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days, and the raw material inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, at a historical low [140][143] 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rebound and rose sharply on July 25, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 690 yuan/ton or 12.46%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend, broke through the upper edge of the flag - shaped channel, and entered the acceleration phase. Pay attention to the pressure around 6300 yuan/ton and 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton [149]

Group 1 - The recent slight upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield is primarily driven by two catalysts: "anti-involution" and market expectations regarding real estate policies [1] - Investors are concerned that the rebound in industrial product prices may lead to an overall increase in macroeconomic inflation, which could constrain future monetary policy stimulus and pose an upward risk to interest rates [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to structurally improve certain industries, particularly those with poor competitive landscapes, potentially allowing them to raise prices above cost levels, thus enhancing overall supply-demand dynamics and boosting future profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The current "anti-involution" policy differs significantly from the previous round of supply-side reforms, as it is more focused on self-regulation at the industry level rather than being implemented at the policy level [2] - The time required for the effects of the "anti-involution" policy to materialize and for industry profitability and price increases to impact overall inflation means it does not currently pose a substantial downside risk to the bond market [2] - From an investment perspective, the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is considered a favorable option due to its vertical nature, low fees, and ease of trading, making it suitable for current market conditions [2]

Market Performance - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, marking a significant recovery [2] - On July 21, the single-day financing purchase amount reached 1776.88 billion yuan, the highest since mid-March, with financing purchases accounting for 10.29% of total A-share transactions [2] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Since June 23, the trading volume of A-shares has significantly increased, with the Wind All A Index trading volume rising from 1.1 trillion yuan to 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities suggests that the increase in trading volume indicates investor optimism about future liquidity improvements, potentially leading to a "liquidity bull market" [2] - The firm warns that the current trading volume may be nearing its peak, estimating a potential peak around 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Market Rotation and Volatility - The market is expected to enter a rotation phase, with high volatility likely as market sentiment rather than fundamentals drives movements [3] - Compared to Nomura's cautious outlook, Cinda Securities anticipates a potential breakout similar to the second half of 2014, contingent on economic or policy catalysts [3] Policy and Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has gained traction, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price competition among enterprises [4] - Huatai Securities notes that the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and coal industry production restrictions are contributing to the formation of the "anti-involution" theme [5] - The transition of "anti-involution" from a theme to a mainline strategy is supported by deepening policy efforts and market recognition [5] Strategic Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as building materials, coal, and chemicals, as well as sectors showing signs of natural capacity clearance [5] - CITIC Securities highlights the need for a long-term approach to address "involution" issues, advocating for a shift from speed to quality in development assessments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda futures continues to rise, driven by policy expectations, industry chain resonance, and cost support from low liquid chlorine prices, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Recent market discussions around "anti-involution" reforms have led to a rebound in commodity markets, with supply-side reform expectations boosting market confidence [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to implement a new growth plan for ten key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Resonance - The chemical industry outlook has improved due to policies aimed at phasing out outdated hazardous chemical production processes, leading to significant price increases in upstream and downstream products such as alumina, coking coal, and soda ash [2]. - Coking coal prices are rising, providing strong cost support for caustic soda, while alumina, a major downstream product, is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations and structural supply-demand imbalances [2]. Group 3: Current Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, 2025, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, with production at 809,700 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Liquid caustic soda inventory is at 383,900 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.56%, while flake caustic soda inventory is at 24,000 tons, also reflecting a month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: Demand Side - The alumina industry maintains a high production level, supporting caustic soda demand, while the viscose staple fiber sector is also showing slight improvements in production and operating rates [12]. - Non-alumina demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with some resistance to high prices from certain enterprises [12]. Group 5: Cost and Profit Analysis - Liquid chlorine prices in Shandong are maintaining a low level, providing some cost support for caustic soda production [17]. - The overall profit margins for the chlor-alkali industry are at a low point but have shown slight recovery, although rising coal prices and high electricity loads may increase production costs [17]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment is driven by expectations of phasing out old production facilities, with improved downstream operations and a potential increase in inventory replenishment as the market atmosphere warms [21]. - Future attention should be given to the impact of new production capacity and the implementation of anti-involution policies on the supply side, as well as the potential negative effects of further declines in liquid chlorine prices on caustic soda costs and profits [21].