Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed stable growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. The service and industrial sectors played important roles, and consumption, investment, and net exports all contributed to economic growth [3]. - Industrial production was stable, and the service industry was on an upward trend, strongly supporting economic growth. Consumption potential continued to be released, and investment played a key role in promoting traditional industrial transformation and upgrading. Net exports maintained stable growth [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q3, GDP was 354,500 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [3]. - The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the first three quarters were 58,061 billion yuan, 364,020 billion yuan, and 592,955 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, and contributions to economic growth of 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% [3]. Industry - In the first three quarters, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. Manufacturing added value grew by 6.5%, higher than the industrial growth rate. In Q3, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.7 percentage points [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises in Q3 2025 was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Service - In the first three quarters, service industry added value was 592,955 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 58.4% of GDP, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - In Q3, service industry added value was 202,641 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 57.2% of GDP, contributing 61.8% to national economic growth, and driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points [4]. Consumption - Consumption potential continued to be released. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. In Q3, it was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [4]. Investment - Investment played a key role. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was 17.5%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points. In Q3, it was 18.9%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving total investment growth by 0.2 percentage points. Internet and related service investment grew by 20.6%, and water transportation investment grew by 12.8% [5]. - From January to September, real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% [5]. Import and Export - Net exports maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of goods and services net exports to economic growth was 29.0%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. In Q3, it was 24.5%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points [6]. Prices - In the first three quarters, consumer prices were generally stable, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. - PPI was down 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with a decline of 2.9% in Q3, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q2 [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth in the third quarter met market expectations, with the economy growing steadily. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, in line with market expectations, and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, also meeting expectations. Although the economic growth rate slowed down in the third quarter, it was higher than market expectations [1][2]. - In September, the domestic demand economic data declined overall and were lower than market expectations. The investment continued to slow down significantly and was lower than market expectations, the consumption growth rate continued to decline but met market expectations, and industrial production accelerated significantly in the short term [2]. - Currently, on the demand side, the investment side continues to slow down in the short term. The real - estate market is recovering slowly due to limited policy stimulus, and investment in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing continues to slow down. The overall demand for domestic commodities has slowed down and fallen short of market expectations. On the supply side, due to strong foreign demand and good exports, industrial production has accelerated. The domestic commodity supply - demand situation shows weak demand and relatively abundant supply in the short term, and the support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities has weakened significantly [2][9]. - The data released this time basically met market expectations, having little short - term impact on the domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodity market. In the medium and long term, more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are expected, and incremental stimulus policies may be introduced in the fourth quarter, which is beneficial to the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the U.S. trade policy is generally easing, but short - term tariff risks have increased, leading to significant differentiation in the prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy, and the support for precious metals has increased due to rising risk - aversion demand [2][4][9] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Contents GDP and Overall Economic Situation - The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 was 10,150.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter, both in line with market expectations. The economic growth rate in the third quarter slowed down but was higher than market expectations [1][2] Domestic Demand Economic Data in September - Consumption: The year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 in September was 3.0%, in line with market expectations but a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value [1][2][5] - Industrial Added Value: The year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises in September was 6.5%, much higher than the expected 5.0% and a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous value. The growth was mainly due to strong short - term external demand and an increase in the operating rate of industrial enterprises [1][4] - Fixed - Asset Investment: From January to September, fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, far lower than the expected 0.1% and a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous value. Among them, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real - estate investment all showed different degrees of slowdown [1][2][5] Real - Estate Market - Investment: In September, real - estate development investment decreased by 21.3% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The real - estate investment side remains weak due to strict control of incremental policies [1][6] - Sales: The year - on - year growth rate of the floor area of commercial housing sales in September was - 11.9%, with the decline widening by 0.9 percentage points from the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales was - 12.4%, with the decline narrowing by 2.4 percentage points from the previous value. Although the real - estate market is slowly recovering, the recovery is slow due to limited policy stimulus [1][6] Infrastructure Investment - In September, infrastructure investment decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. Due to the constraints of local debt resolution on project reserves and funds for traditional infrastructure, infrastructure investment continued to slow down [1][8] Manufacturing Investment - In September, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline widening by 0.6 percentage points from the previous value. Due to high base effects, tariff uncertainties, and a marginal decline in policy support, manufacturing investment continued to slow down [1][8] Impact on Commodities - Demand Side: Short - term investment continues to slow down, and the overall demand for domestic commodities has slowed down and fallen short of market expectations [2][9] - Supply Side: Due to strong foreign demand and good exports, industrial production has accelerated, and the supply of domestic commodities remains relatively abundant [2][9] - Price Impact: The support for the prices of domestic - demand - oriented bulk commodities has weakened significantly. The prices of external - demand - oriented commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy have shown significant differentiation, and the support for precious metals has increased due to rising risk - aversion demand [2][4][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - factors still have a significant impact on copper prices. Although there is a slight divergence within the Fed on the future interest - rate cut pace, the probability of a rate cut remains high. Geopolitical factors and trade issues increase market risk sentiment. In the short term, macro - risks put pressure on copper prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook for copper is optimistic. For aluminum, alumina, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, the prices are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and different trading strategies are recommended accordingly [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Data - **10/13 - 10/19 Economic Data**: China's September exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations. The eurozone's October ZEW economic sentiment index was 22.7. The US September NFIB small - business optimism index was 98.8%. China's September CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year. The US September government budget was 198 billion US dollars [12]. - **10/20 - 10/26 Forecast Data**: Forecasts include China's October LPR, real estate development investment, fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail sales, as well as data from the UK, the US, and the eurozone such as CPI, PMI, and consumer confidence index [21]. 3.2 Metal Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - **Price Trend**: High - level shock adjustment, with the price range of 83,000 - 87,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic smelter maintenance continues, output is at a low level, but recycled copper supply has rebounded. High copper prices suppress domestic consumption, and new orders are limited. Export windows are open, and domestic inventory accumulation is not significant. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions on dips and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: High - level shock, with the price range of 20,700 - 21,200. - **Supply and Demand**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore decreased. Alumina production capacity decreased, and inventory increased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly. The demand in the peak season was weak, and high aluminum prices restricted the increase in downstream processing. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to build long positions on dips. For alumina, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [2]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory decline, with the price range of 21,500 - 22,500. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic refined zinc production remains at a high level, and overseas LME zinc inventory reduction supports LME zinc prices. Terminal consumption is weak, and inventory has reached a new high this year. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound short - biased trading [2]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Price Trend**: Sideways shock, with the price range of 17,000 - 17,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is generally stable, and the consumption of recycled lead is weak. After the holiday, affected by production resumption and positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, but the rise may be delayed due to Sino - US trade frictions. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips within the range of 16,900 - 17,300 and conduct range - bound trading [2]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound shock, with the price range of 118,000 - 122,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Macro - factors such as Sino - US trade frictions affect nickel prices. Nickel is in a surplus pattern, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The downstream stainless steel market is weak, and the cost of nickel sulfate has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [3]. 3.2.6 Stainless Steel - **Price Trend**: Range - bound decline. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has been restored, and downstream demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading [3]. 3.2.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: Overall oscillatory upward, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to improve, but downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaic consumption are weak. The short - term tariff increase expectation is negative for tin prices. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. 3.2.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory adjustment, with the price range of 8,200 - 9,300. - **Supply and Demand**: Production and inventory have increased. The production of polycrystalline silicon has increased, and the production of organic silicon intermediates has decreased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.9 Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: High - level wide - range shock, with the price range of 48,000 - 56,000. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of polycrystalline silicon have increased. The production of photovoltaic industry chain links has different trends. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to conduct range - bound trading or wait and see [3]. 3.2.10 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Oscillatory stabilization, with the lower support at 72,000. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. The demand for energy storage terminals is good, and the production schedule of large - scale battery cells and cathode materials has increased. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to trade with caution and pay attention to the progress of mining rights in Yichun and the resumption of production of lithium mines [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week (October 20 - 24, 2025), and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market. It also suggests paying attention to factors such as domestic macro - policies, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, and the negotiation on ending the US government shutdown [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Key Focus - A Republican temporary appropriation bill aiming to fund the federal government until the end of November failed in the Senate, and US government economic data may be delayed due to the government shutdown [2]. - On October 20, the People's Bank of China will announce the October 2025 LPR, with expectations of no change from the previous values; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September's national economic performance, releasing macro - economic data; the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held from October 20 - 23; the US will release September's non - farm payroll report and retail sales data; on October 24, the US will release September's CPI data [2]. This Week's Hotspot Preview October 20 - China's October LPR: Expected 1 - year LPR at 3.00% and 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.50%, unchanged from the previous values, with a neutral impact on commodity, stock index, and treasury bond futures [4]. - National Bureau of Statistics' report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities: Attention should be paid to its impact on relevant futures prices [5]. - Press conference on September's national economic performance: Expected 1 - 9 months' cumulative year - on - year growth of urban fixed - asset investment at 0.1% (0.5% in 1 - 8 months), September's year - on - year growth of industrial added value at 5.0% (5.2% previously), September's year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods at 3.0% (3.4% previously), Q3 GDP year - on - year growth at 4.8% (5.2% in Q2), and Q3 GDP quarter - on - quarter growth at 0.8% (1.1% in Q2). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress commodity and stock index futures and benefit treasury bond futures [8]. - US September non - farm payroll report: Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs at 50,000 (22,000 previously), unemployment rate at 4.3% (unchanged), and average hourly wage annual rate at 3.7% (unchanged). Higher new non - farm jobs may slightly suppress gold and silver futures and benefit other industrial product futures [9]. - US September retail sales: Expected monthly rate at 0.4% (0.6% previously), core retail sales monthly rate at 0.3% (0.7% previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit gold and silver futures and suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures [10]. - The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: The main agendas include the Politburo reporting work and discussing suggestions for the 15th Five - Year Plan, and analyzing the current economic situation and deploying the second - half economic work [11]. October 21 - Fed's payment innovation conference: Will discuss stablecoins, artificial intelligence, and tokenization [12]. October 22 - US EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 17: A continued decline may benefit crude oil and related futures prices [13]. October 23 - Eurozone's preliminary October consumer confidence index: Expected at - 12.7 (- 12.9 previously) [14]. - US September existing home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 4.08 million (4 million previously). Higher - than - previous - value data may slightly benefit non - ferrous metals futures and suppress gold and silver futures [15]. October 24 - National Bureau of Statistics' report on market prices of important production materials in mid - October: Will cover 9 categories and 50 products [16]. - Eurozone's preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 49.5 (49.8 previously) [17]. - US September CPI: Expected unadjusted CPI year - on - year growth at 2.9% (unchanged), seasonally - adjusted CPI month - on - month growth at 0.4% (unchanged), unadjusted core CPI year - on - year growth at 3.1% (unchanged), and unadjusted core CPI month - on - month growth at 0.3% (unchanged). Unchanged data may strengthen the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October and December [18]. - US preliminary October SPGI manufacturing PMI: Expected at 52 (unchanged) [19]. - US September new home sales: Expected seasonally - adjusted annualized total at 710,000 (800,000 previously). Lower - than - previous - value data may suppress non - ferrous metals futures and benefit gold and silver futures [20].

Group 1 - Domestic macroeconomic data and the third-quarter reports of listed companies are being disclosed, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics is gradually releasing September macroeconomic data, indicating that the economy remains stable overall [1] - The third-quarter reports will provide more information about the real economy, causing investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach during this period [1] Group 2 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 30-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index saw a larger decline, indicating a phase of catch-up decline [1] - Market volume shrank compared to the previous week, with the main focus on high-dividend sectors such as banking and coal [1] Group 3 - Large-cap blue-chip stocks showed relative resilience, while small-cap and technology stocks experienced larger declines [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has entered a horizontal consolidation phase since the end of August, facing resistance above and support below [1] - The previous adjustment low remains above the market high of 2021, indicating that the original resistance level has become an important support level [1] Group 4 - After the holiday, the market attempted to break upward but fell back into consolidation due to negative information, suggesting that more time is needed for digestion and consolidation [1]

经济观察网 10月20日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、国家统计局将发布前三季度国民经济运行数据 10月20日，国家统计局将发布三季度及9月份宏观经济数据。 2、9月70城房价数据将发布 10月20日，国家统计局将发布2025年9月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况。 今日看点 经济观察网 编辑 王俊勇 整理 10月20日，本月一年期和五年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）将公布。 4、406.9亿元市值限售股今日解禁 10月20日，共有22家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为20.95亿股，按最新收盘价计算，合计解禁市值为406.9亿元。 从解禁量来看，16家公司解禁股数超千万股。首钢股份、三柏硕、慧博云通解禁量居前，解禁股数分别为10.15亿股、1.78亿股、1.57亿股。从解禁市值来 看，16家公司解禁股数超亿元。慧博云通、峰岹科技、首钢股份解禁市值居前，解禁市值分别为84.28亿元、70.75亿元、41.53亿元。 5、2家公司披露回购进展 10月20日，2家公司共发布2个股票回购相关进展。其中，2家公司回购方案已实施完毕。从已完成回购来看，当日共1家公司回购金额超千万。泰晶科技、电 魂网络已完 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's statements and the September meeting minutes, with significant implications for commodities and RMB assets due to China's financial data and central bank liquidity operations [1][2] - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of important economic data, which are expected to drive short-term trading strategies [1][2] - The trading environment is characterized by high volatility and risk, necessitating careful position management and confirmation of market signals before making trading decisions [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and officials' comments, particularly regarding interest rate paths, which will affect market risk appetite and the USD [1][2] - The performance of the US dollar is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, while Canadian employment data will directly impact the Canadian dollar [2] - Oil demand expectations are significantly influenced by China's financial data, and the Baker Hughes rig count provides insights into supply-side dynamics [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair has retreated from a high of approximately 1.1750, reflecting new selling pressure on the dollar due to potential government shutdown risks, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. labor market data and business activity indicators [1][5]. Technical Overview - The Euro/USD is attempting to break through the flat 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with technical indicators slightly rising near the midline. However, prices remain significantly above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating a long-term upward risk [4]. - In the short term, the Euro/USD is generally neutral to slightly bullish, facing selling pressure near the 100-day SMA while the 200-day SMA (around 1.1690) provides intraday support. The pair is trading above the 20-day SMA, which is trending downward and about to cross with long-term averages [4]. - Support levels are identified at 1.1690, 1.1650, and 1.1615, while resistance levels are at 1.1750, 1.1795, and 1.1830 [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a 0.2% month-over-month decline in Eurozone Producer Prices, contrasting with a previous increase of 0.5% [4]. - The U.S. faces a potential government shutdown due to a budget impasse, which could delay or suspend the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report scheduled for Friday [5]. - Upcoming releases include inflation data for Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the U.S. pending home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index for September [6].

Market Activity - Market activity is expected to be influenced by the upcoming U.S. employment figures, with nonfarm payrolls projected to increase by 39,000, serving as a key indicator of economic health [1][3]. Crypto Industry - Creditors of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX are set to receive a total of $1.6 billion as part of the third tranche of payouts under the bankruptcy plan, with the distribution facilitated through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer [1][2]. - PancakeSwap has announced the discontinuation of support for Polygon zkEVM liquidity pools and Perpetual V1 orderbook, requiring users to withdraw their funds by a specified deadline [2]. - Starknet is launching BTC staking on its mainnet, allowing wrapped BTC tokens to stake with a 25% consensus weight, while reducing the un-staking period to 7 days [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. is set to release various economic indicators, including the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and the JOLTS report, which will provide insights into job openings and labor market dynamics [2][3]. - The U.K. is expected to report its Q2 GDP growth rate, with year-over-year estimates at 1.2% and quarter-over-quarter estimates at 0.3% [2]. Upcoming Events - The U.S. Congress faces a deadline to pass the annual federal appropriations bill, which is crucial for government operations [2]. - New U.S. tariffs will take effect, imposing significant rates on various goods, including 100% on patented drugs without U.S. manufacturing [2].

2025 年 9 月 29 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-09-29 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 9 月 30日 09:30，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会将联合发布 9 月官方制造业 PMI、 非制造业 PMI 和综合 PMI。 10 月 1 日 20:15，美国自动数据处理公司将公布 9 月 ADP 新增就业人数。 10 月 1 日 22:00，美国供应管理协会（ISM）将公布美国 9 月 ISM 制造业 PMI。 10 月 3 日 20:30，美国劳动统计局将公布 9 月非农就业报告。 此外，重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际贸易战和关税战、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普 ...