Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The market anticipates a significant increase in the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, leading to a substantial rebound in the US dollar index, which is bearish for gold. The potential end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict also favors risk - assets and is negative for safe - haven assets like gold [1]. - Polypropylene开工率上升，整体供应充足，商业库存增加，预计PP 01合约短期震荡运行，上方压力7135一线 [1]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate. Although global iron ore shipments are rising, attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term due to reduced supply expectations and rising factory prices, along with cost support [4]. - After consecutive price increases, coke production has rebounded, and the sixth round of price increases has started. Although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term due to better - than - expected MPOB data and the influence of Indonesia's B50 news [6][7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias. Although there is liquidity support, the economic resilience favors risk - assets [7]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. - Methanol's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 2495. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [9]. - Soda ash's 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure level at 1355. It is advisable to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 14.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 85.9%. In October, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 5.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.1% [1]. - Gold is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [1]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 7058 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 77.77%, up 1.34% from the previous day. The average downstream industry start - up rate is 48.9%, up 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The commercial inventory is 85.66 million tons, up 5.61 million tons week - on - week, and the two - oil polyolefin inventory is 83.5 million tons, up 9 million tons week - on - week [1]. - It is expected that the commercial inventory will remain at a high level in the short term, and the PP 01 contract will oscillate, with an upper pressure at 7135 [1]. Iron Ore - From August 4th to 10th, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 Chinese ports was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; at 45 ports, it was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and at the six northern ports, it was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3]. - Iron ore prices may oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the expected reduction in hot metal production [3]. Rebar - On August 11th, the domestic steel market mainly rose. The ex - factory price of Tangshan Qian'an billets increased by 40 to 3100 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton, and one lowered it by 20 yuan/ton. Baosteel raised the ex - factory price of plates in September, with the base price of thick plates and hot - rolled products increasing by 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3408 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Steel prices may fluctuate with an upward bias in the short term [4]. Coke - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 2 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 49 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 82 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 22 yuan/ton [4]. - The sixth round of price increases has started, and although there is resistance from steel mills, the raw material prices remain high, providing short - term support to the futures market [4]. Pig - On August 11th, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 114.15, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 114.35. As of 14:00, the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.2 yuan/kg, a 1.0% decrease from last Friday; the egg price was 7.55 yuan/kg, a 0.5% increase from last Friday [5]. - Pig prices are showing regional differences, with short - term supply pressure and weak demand. It is recommended to avoid over - optimism in the short term and consider long positions in the LH2511 contract in the medium - to - long term [5]. Silver - Trump's team is expanding the list of candidates for the Fed chair. The White House may announce the candidate this fall [5]. - Silver may fluctuate with an upward bias, and its continued correlation with gold needs further observation [5]. Palm Oil - Malaysia's July crude palm oil production was 1.8124 million tons, a 7.09% month - on - month increase; imports were 61,000 tons, a 12.82% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.3091 million tons, a 3.82% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 2.1133 million tons, a 4.02% month - on - month increase [6]. - Palm oil prices may experience high - level oscillations in the short term [6][7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The US will continue to modify the implementation of ad valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% tariff [7]. - Medium - and long - term treasury bonds may fluctuate with a downward bias [7]. Rapeseed Meal - As of August 8th, the rapeseed inventory at major coastal oil mills was 138,800 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons from last week; and the unexecuted contracts were 69,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week [8]. - Rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue to fluctuate with a downward bias in the short term, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [8]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2374 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The sample inventory at Chinese methanol ports is 925,500 tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week - on - week. The sample production enterprise inventory is 293,700 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons week - on - week. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered are 240,800 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% week - on - week. The 1.2 million - ton/year methanol plant of Yanchang Zhongmei is expected to complete maintenance this week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate is 72.61%, an increase of 0.85% week - on - week [9]. - The methanol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 2495 [9]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1336 yuan/ton, recently oscillating with a downward bias. The weekly soda ash production is 744,600 tons, a 6.4% increase from the previous period. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 1.8651 million tons, a 3.86% increase week - on - week. The float glass start - up rate is 75.19%, a 0.19% increase week - on - week. The average national float glass price is 1181 yuan/ton, a 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 61.847 million weight cases, a 3.95% increase week - on - week [10]. - The soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with an upper pressure at 1355 [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and grains. It also covers important fundamental information such as weather conditions in the US and their impact on crops, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the futures market. The information is useful for investors to understand the current situation and potential trends in the commodities market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 10 was 4254.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.31%. Brent 10 on ICE closed at 66.32, down 0.14% previously and up 0.15% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 09 closed at 63.35, down 0.74% previously and 0.31% overnight. CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 986.50, down 0.80% previously and 0.65% overnight [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.25, up 0.19% in ten days. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1382, up 0.05%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2218, up 0.11%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16186, down 0.40%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.3808, down 0.73%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1325.000, down 0.08%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2812, down 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 9170 with a basis of 120 and no daily change; in East China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change; in South China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 8500 with a basis of 84, down 26; in Jiangsu, it was 8600 with a basis of 184, down 96; in Guangdong, it was 8620 with a basis of 204, up 24; in Tianjin, it was 8520 with a basis of 104, down 36 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2910 with a basis of - 125, up 2; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 with a basis of - 115, down 8; in Guangdong, it was 2910 with a basis of - 125, down 18; in Tianjin, it was 3000 with a basis of - 35, up 12 [2]. - The CNF quote for imported Brazilian soybeans was 481 dollars/ton with a CNF premium of 315 cents/bushel [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - From August 13 - 17, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally high. The western part of the US Midwest has active rainfall, while the eastern part is relatively dry. Rainfall is beneficial for corn and soybean crops in the northern Great Plains and Midwest [3][5][6]. - In the past week, US temperatures were 1 - 8°F lower than normal, and rainfall in the northwest, northern Great Plains, and southeast was 10 - 85 mm higher than normal. In the next 15 days, US temperatures will be 2 - 6°F higher than normal, and the northern Great Plains and Midwest are expected to have 20 - 75 mm more rainfall than normal [6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 are estimated at 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [8]. - As of the week ending August 5, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 5999 to 156793, and short positions increased by 22377 to 195953. Similar changes occurred in other related contracts [8]. - The barge freight rate in the middle of the Mississippi River decreased by 5% week - on - week. A section of the Mississippi River was closed, which may delay the transportation of grains from Midwest farms to the US Gulf [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending July 31 decreased by 52.1% to 26,400 tons. From August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, exports were 9.5186 million tons, a 38.8% increase from the previous year. As of July 31, the commercial inventory was 1.1432 million tons [9]. - France raised its rapeseed production forecast for this year from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Russia is expected to produce 5 million tons of rapeseed this year [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for three consecutive days, with the Capesize and Supramax indices driving the increase [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 8, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 39,933 tons, a 227% increase from the previous trading day [11]. - On August 8, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 52,500 tons, a decrease of 53,100 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.17%, up 1.56% from the previous day [11]. - From August 2 - 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [11]. - As of the week ending August 8, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 45.13 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 134.14 yuan/head [12]. - In July 2025, the average monthly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces was 19.14 yuan/kg, a 3.1% increase month - on - month and a 22.7% decrease year - on - year [12]. - On August 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.94, up 0.02 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - Fed Governor Bowman believes that recent downward revisions to employment growth data highlight the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. She expects to support rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [15]. - St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the Fed faces dual risks in achieving its inflation and employment goals [15]. - The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of - 0.2% [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 8, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1382, up 37 points (RMB depreciation) [17]. - On August 8, the People's Bank of China conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [17]. - China's CPI in July was 0% year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1% [17]. 3.5 Capital Flows - On August 8, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 8.126 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.801 billion yuan, including 1.151 billion yuan in agricultural products, 827 million yuan in chemicals, a net outflow of 777 million yuan in black - series commodities, and 601 million yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 9.927 billion yuan [20]. - Commodities with large capital inflows included lithium carbonate (1.3 billion yuan), gold (1.152 billion yuan), and crude oil (464 million yuan). Those with large outflows included CSI 500 stock index futures (- 2.388 billion yuan) and CSI 300 stock index futures (- 3.029 billion yuan) [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current oil price has been relatively undervalued, and its static fundamentals and dynamic forecasts remain favorable. It's a good opportunity for left - hand side layout, and the fundamentals will support the current price. If the geopolitical premium re - emerges, the oil price will gain upward space [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of last Friday, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.47 dollars, a 0.74% decline, to 63.35 dollars; Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.09 dollars, a 0.14% decline, to 66.32 dollars; INE main crude oil futures fell 11.20 yuan, a 2.24% decline, to 489.8 yuan [1] - **European ARA Data**: Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.38 million barrels to 9.39 million barrels, a 3.85% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.25 million barrels to 13.16 million barrels, a 1.97% increase; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 6.55 million barrels, a 5.20% increase; naphtha decreased by 0.32 million barrels to 4.96 million barrels, a 6.13% decline; aviation kerosene increased by 0.31 million barrels to 6.79 million barrels, a 4.74% increase; total refined oil increased by 0.19 million barrels to 40.85 million barrels, a 0.46% increase [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 5 yuan/ton to 2383 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 3 [4] - **Analysis**: Domestic production resumed its decline, but enterprise profits remained high. Future supply is likely to increase marginally. Port inventory accumulation accelerated due to faster unloading and MTO device shutdowns. Inland inventory decreased due to olefin procurement, with less pressure. Methanol valuation is still high, downstream demand is weak, and prices face pressure. It can be considered as a short - position variety within the sector [4] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 8, the 09 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 1728 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [5] - **Analysis**: Domestic production continued to decline, and enterprise profits were at a low level but expected to bottom out and rebound. Supply is relatively loose. Domestic agricultural demand is ending and entering the off - season. Compound fertilizer production is increasing, and future demand will focus on compound fertilizers and exports. Current domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [5] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, NR and RU oscillated and rebounded [7] - **Analysis**: Bulls believe in seasonal, demand, and production - reduction expectations; bears are concerned about uncertain macro - expectations, off - season demand, and less - than - expected production reduction. As of August 7, the full - steel tire production rate in Shandong was 60.98%, down 0.08 percentage points from last week but up 8.72 percentage points from last year. The semi - steel tire production rate was 74.53%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 4.21 percentage points from last year. As of August 3, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.9 tons, a 0.4% decline [7][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach and focus on quick trades. Consider a long - short spread operation between RU2601 and RU2509 [8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PVC09 contract fell 53 yuan to 4993 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4890 (- 20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 103 (+ 33) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 140 (- 14) yuan/ton [9] - **Analysis**: Cost remained stable, production rate increased to 79.5%, downstream production rate was 42.9%. Factory inventory was 33.7 (- 0.8) tons, and social inventory was 77.7 (+ 5.4) tons. Enterprise profits reached a high for the year, with high valuation pressure. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the short - term outlook is poor. Observe whether exports can reverse the inventory situation [9] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a low level for the same period, with room for upward correction [11] - **Analysis**: The macro - market sentiment was positive, and cost support remained. Pure benzene production decreased slightly, and supply was still abundant. Styrene production continued to increase, and port inventory decreased significantly. Demand from the three S industries was in the off - season. After inventory reduction, the price may follow the cost trend [11][12] Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. The market expects favorable policies from the Ministry of Finance in Q3, and cost support remains [14] - **Analysis**: Spot prices fell, and PE valuation has limited downward space. Trader inventory is high, and demand from the agricultural film industry is weak. In August, there is a 110 - ton production capacity plan. The price will be determined by the cost and supply [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, futures prices fell. Shandong refinery profits stopped falling and rebounded, and production is expected to increase [15] - **Analysis**: Demand is in the off - season. In August, there is a 45 - ton production capacity plan. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the price will be dominated by cost and is expected to follow the oil price [15] Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PX09 contract fell 30 yuan to 6726 yuan, the PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 831 dollars, and the basis was 111 (- 41) yuan, with a 9 - 1 spread of 50 (+ 4) yuan [17] - **Analysis**: China's PX production rate was 82%, up 0.9%; Asia's was 73.6%, up 0.2%. Some domestic and overseas devices had production rate adjustments. PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. In July, South Korea's PX exports to China increased by 3.4 tons year - on - year. Inventory decreased by 21 tons in June. PX production remains high, and downstream PTA has short - term maintenance. PX inventory is expected to continue to decline, and valuation has support [17][19] PTA - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the PTA09 contract fell 4 yuan to 4684 yuan, the East China spot price fell 20 yuan to 4670 yuan, the basis was - 18 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 20 (+ 18) yuan [20] - **Analysis**: PTA production rate was 74.7%, up 2.1%. Some devices had production rate adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Inventory increased by 3.5 tons on August 1. PTA processing fees have limited space, and future demand depends on order improvement [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: On August 11, the EG09 contract fell 12 yuan to 4384 yuan, the East China spot price fell 21 yuan to 4465 yuan, the basis was 75 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38 (- 4) yuan [21] - **Analysis**: Supply decreased to 68.4%, with some device adjustments. Downstream production rate was 88.8%, up 0.7%. Terminal production rates were mixed. Import arrivals are expected to be 13.8 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.5 tons. Valuation is relatively high, and the short - term outlook is weak [21]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential upward movement in Q4 due to recovering demand from the power grid and air conditioning sectors, despite current inventory pressures [4][5]. Macro Environment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, leading to a weaker US dollar this week [4]. Supply and Demand - The inventory arbitrage logic between the US and non-US regions has ended, with previously stored inventory in the US becoming more apparent, leading to short-term accumulation pressure on LME and COMEX [4]. - Domestic cable operating rates have rebounded but remain significantly lower than the same period last year, with air conditioning production expected to decline year-on-year from August to October [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 10.6% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 11.5% [5]. - As of August 8, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory stood at 620,000 tons, up 18.8% from the previous week [5]. Raw Materials - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 21 CNY/ton this week [6]. - China's refined copper production in May was 158,000 tons, up 22.7% month-on-month and 11.2% year-on-year [6]. Smelting - The TC spot price was -38 USD/ton, reflecting a 4 USD/ton increase from the previous week, but still at a low level not seen since September 2007 [7]. - China's electrolytic copper production in July was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.5% month-on-month and 14.2% year-on-year [7]. Demand - Cable operating rates increased by 2.6 percentage points week-on-week, with cable demand accounting for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [8]. - Air conditioning production is projected to decline year-on-year for the months of August to October, with refrigerator production also showing a downward trend [8]. Futures Market - The open interest for SHFE copper contracts decreased by 4% week-on-week, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions fell by 45% [9][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Short - term steel inventory pressure is not significant, but off - season demand has low acceptance of high prices. The price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [1]. Iron Ore - Unilateral strategy: It is recommended to short 2601 at high prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [5]. Coke - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coke spread [8]. Coking Coal - Speculative strategy: It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices. Arbitrage strategy: It is recommended to switch to a long - 9 short - 1 coking coal reverse spread [8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - For rebar, prices in East, North, and South China decreased or remained flat. Futures contract prices also declined slightly. For hot - rolled coils, prices in different regions decreased or were stable, and futures contract prices dropped [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.2 to 240.5, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products increased by 1.8 to 869.2, an increase of 0.2%. Rebar output increased by 10.1 to 221.2, a growth of 4.8%, with electric - arc furnace output rising by 15.4% and converter output increasing by 3.3%. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 7.9 to 314.9, a decline of 2.4% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 23.5 to 1375.4, an increase of 1.7%. Rebar inventory increased by 10.4 to 556.7, a growth of 1.9%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 8.7 to 356.6, an increase of 2.5% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.9 to 9.7, a decline of 8.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 6.3 to 845.7, a decline of 0.7%. Rebar apparent demand increased by 7.4 to 210.8, a growth of 3.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 13.8 to 306.2, a decline of 4.3% [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore powders changed, with PB powder and Jinbuba powder decreasing, and Bahun powder increasing. The basis of 09 contracts for different powders also changed. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to - 40.5, a decline of 1.3%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.5 to 18.5, a growth of 8.8%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1 to 22, a decline of 4.3% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 267.3 to 2507.8, a growth of 11.9%. The global weekly shipping volume decreased by 139.1 to 3061.8, a decline of 4.3%. The monthly national import volume increased by 782 to 10594.8, a growth of 8.0%. The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 to 240.7, a decline of 0.6%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 302.7, a decline of 3.9%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 220.9 to 7190.5, a decline of 3.0%. The monthly national crude steel output decreased by 336.1 to 8318.4, a decline of 3.9% [5]. Inventory - The port inventory increased by 83.1 to 13740.97, an increase of 0.6%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 126.9 to 9012.1, an increase of 1.4%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1 to 20, a decline of 4.8% [5]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 20 to 1440, an increase of 1.4%. Coke futures contracts increased, and the coking profit decreased [8]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.3 to 65.1, an increase of 0.4%. The daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 to 46.8, a decline of 0.4%. The 247 - steel - mill pig iron output decreased by 0.4 to 240.3, a decline of 0.24% [8]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 8.3 to 907.2, a decline of 0.9%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 3.9 to 69.7, a decline of 5.34%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.4 to 619.3, a decline of 1.24%. The port inventory increased by 3.1 to 218.2, an increase of 1.4% [8]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal warehouse receipts in Shanxi and Mongolia increased. Coking coal futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 65 to 418, a growth of 18.4% [8]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased by 6.4 to 868.7, an increase of 0.7%. The clean coal output increased by 3.1 to 444.1, an increase of 0.7% [8]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 13.9 to 118.8, a decline of 10.5%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.8 to 987.9, a decline of 0.54%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.9 to 808.7, an increase of 0.6%. The port inventory decreased by 4.8 to 277.3, a decline of 1.7% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Ethylene glycol may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, facing pressure from cost logic and weak supply - demand reality. The market is expected to be range - bound with limited upside potential, and attention should be paid to coal chemical plant maintenance plans and the recovery rhythm of terminal textile orders [2][23] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **主力合约与基差**: The price of the ethylene glycol main contract rose slightly by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper backwardation in the far - month contracts [1] - **持仓与成交**: The position of the main contract decreased by 6034 lots to 218,000 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 13.96% to 90,000 lots, showing a decline in market participation and a shift to a wait - and - see attitude [1] - **供给端**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained at 63.09%, with the operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based plants unchanged. However, the profits of naphtha - based, coal - based, and methanol - based production were in losses [1] - **需求端**: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand was in a seasonal off - season without significant improvement [1] - **库存端**: The inventory at the East China main port decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons. The port shipment volume remained high, but the recent arrival volume increased for two consecutive weeks to 16.87 tons [1] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **期货与现货价格**: The main contract price of MEG futures rose by 9 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the East China market rose by 15 yuan/ton to 4490 yuan/ton [4] - **价差情况**: The MEG basis narrowed by 9 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread weakened to - 52 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to 73 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to - 21 yuan/ton [4] - **利润情况**: The profits of naphtha - based, ethylene - based, methanol - based, and coal - based production were in losses, with the coal - based profit remaining at - 214 yuan/ton [4] - **开工负荷**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, ethylene - based, and methanol - based operating rates remained unchanged [4] - **库存与到港量**: The East China main port inventory decreased by 4.8 tons to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 2 tons to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 0.97 tons to 16.87 tons [4] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **市场商谈情况**: On August 6, the negotiation in the East China US dollar market moved up in the morning and remained firm in the afternoon, with no reported transactions [5] - **地区市场报价**: The spot price in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4000 yuan/ton, the quotation in the South China market was raised, and the East China price was around 4492 yuan/ton [5] - **价格影响因素**: The increase in international crude oil and coal prices strengthened cost support. With domestic and foreign plant production cuts, the basis was firm, and the market price rose [5] 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [6][8][10]

Group 1: Core View - The growth of US soybeans is in good condition, and the trade policies between the US and other countries show no obvious signs of easing, putting pressure on the US market, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The current trade situation between China and the US may keep the Brazilian premium strong. The domestic market presents a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with the NO1 contract expected to fluctuate strongly, but the short - term strong performance of soybean oil suppresses the performance of soybean meal. Follow - up attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the US soybean yield per unit and the domestic import situation of Argentine soybean meal [6][7] - In terms of supply, the good - rate of US soybeans has risen to 70% this week. Although the rainfall in the production areas will be slightly less in the next two weeks without obvious high - temperature, the expected impact is limited. Under the pressure of the concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing in August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to continue to be abundant. The purchase of ships from October to January is progressing slowly, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [6] - In terms of demand, the breeding cycles of pigs and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the far - month pig supply. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased this week [7] - In terms of inventory, the domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; soybean meal has a small inventory reduction but is still in the inventory accumulation cycle; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have decreased [7] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions and time periods are presented, including the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot, the basis of rapeseed meal spot, etc. For example, the basis of soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on August 6 is - 23 [5] Spread Data - The spread data include the M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, RM9 - 1 spreads, the spot spread and the main - contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal. For example, the M9 - 1 spread is - 46, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 281 [6] Other Data - The data also involve the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean gross profit, the inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises, the inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills, the start - up rate and the soybean crushing volume of major oil mills [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - **Asset Views**: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Zinc**: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Tin**: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Asphalt**: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PP**: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Plastic**: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Protein Meal**: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Rubber**: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Cotton**: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Sugar**: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Log**: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Currently, the path of interest rate cuts is unclear. Without a significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the disappointment of US copper tariffs, the electrolytic copper market in non - US regions shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may still fluctuate within a range without significant macro disturbances. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The TC of zinc ore has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton, but the growth rates of global mine output in May and domestic mine output in June are both lower than expected. The smelter's enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter's operating rate is stronger than the seasonality. The supply - side relaxation logic of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. The demand side is significantly suppressed by the strong disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is not enough to boost the continuous rise of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. It is expected that zinc prices will still operate in a shock in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is supported to rebound, and the basis weakens, but the market will remain slightly oversupplied in the future, and the core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 in the short term. For aluminum, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances, it is expected that the price will still be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract this month is 20,000 - 21,000 [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum in the market is relatively tight, which provides certain support for recycled aluminum on the cost side. The demand side is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, and the subsequent weak demand situation will continue, which will continuously suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, and the reference range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - The actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue to be at a low level. The demand is expected to be weak in the future. Attention should be paid to the resumption of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply resumes smoothly, there is a large downward space for tin prices; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals do not change much. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. It is expected that the disk will adjust within a range in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,200 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term suspension expectation of the market is fermenting, and the uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. Currently, the supply - demand balance is in line with expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and the supply remains sufficient. The demand performance is stable. Recently, the market sentiment and news - surface disturbances dominate the disk trend. The main contract price is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading without a position [13][14]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,350 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 10 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,474 yuan/ton, up 75.56 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 25 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,630 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the previous value; the import profit and loss is - 1,294 yuan/ton, up 39.9 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are 30 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC15 price is 20,150 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2511 - 2512 are 20 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price is 267,600 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 premium is - 42.00 US dollars/ton, down 3.00 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 470 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,100 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous value; the LME 0 - 3 is - 206 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 100 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the spot - futures spread is 235 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2509 - 2510 are - 60 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,950 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; the basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is 2,090 yuan/ton, down 1,810 yuan from the previous value. The month - to - month spreads such as 2508 - 2509 are - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1743 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 521,600 tons, down 7.01% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - In July, the refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 36,100 tons, up 34.97% month - on - month. The galvanizing operating rate was 56.77%, down 2.65% week - on - week [4]. Aluminum - In July, the alumina output was 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month. The aluminum profile operating rate was 50.00%, down 0.99% week - on - week [7]. Aluminum Alloy - In June, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, up 1.49% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 255,000 tons, down 2.30% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.60%, up 3.02% week - on - week [8]. Tin - In June, the tin ore import volume was 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month. The SHEF inventory was 7,671 tons, up 3.42% week - on - week [9]. Nickel - The domestic refined nickel output was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month. The SHFE inventory was 25,451 tons, up 0.69% week - on - week [10]. Stainless Steel - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel output (43 manufacturers) was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; the stainless steel import volume was 109,500 tons, down 12.48% month - on - month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 514,800 tons, down 0.20% week - on - week [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, the lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month. The total lithium carbonate inventory in July was 97,846 tons, down 2.01% month - on - month [13].